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DTs Pre Market Prep

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10th March



At risk of repeating myself - I'm not bearish till we get below the 71-74. So once again, anywhere below 74 I'm looking for 1945 fairly quickly and I think we'll see more buyers come in if we pop through 2006. Between that I think it's less decisive.



The volume profile for this week looks very typical of a range week, so look out for rotation up and a potential failure as we get to 1995.



Again, this is very rangebound action. My presumption is that 71-74 is the breakdown point and that this should be the range low. I am flexible on that but I'm definitely looking to get on a move up today with a first target of 95 (weekly value high). If we move below 71, then I'm expecting acceleration to the downside. I don't see much prospect for a rapid move up from here but we do have the unemployment numbers out today and any big surprise there could change people's perspectives but right now it's hard to see what'll bring buyers in quantity until we pop 2006.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1976 ->2004.50
Value - 1982 -> 1993
S1 - 1945 R1 - 2026

Daily Numbers
Range 1978 -> 1991.75 / 1994
Value 1983.25 -> 1989.25
Globex 1977.25 -> 1990.50

Settlement - 1989

Today only - 1971->1974.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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14th March

That was quite an unusual rollover - anyway we are about done rolling, so now to trading June contract.

Our levels have moved down 9.25 points - so take note below.



We are above our 1996.75 level, so looking for signs we can hold that, preferably on a pullback and then start our way up to 2100. So long biased above 96.75.



To the downside we have 2002.50 and 1994.75 as potential support as well as the 1985 level. Below that and I'm looking for signs of seller strength.



Fridays Value low was 2003 and the day session traded very much like a roll day. As we go into today, I'm watching for heavy selling right from the outset for a large down day. If we move down on moderate volume, I'm looking for the market to find support for the long. I will not participate in any average volume move down.

In terms of upside potential, it's pretty much open.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1958 ->2012.75
Value - 1971.50 -> 1989
S1 - 1974.75 R1 - 2029.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1978 / 1995.75 -> 2012.75
Value 2003 -> 2011.50
Globex 2006 -> 2011.50

Settlement - 2010.50

Today only - 2002.50, 1994.75, 1985

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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15th March



As we didn't do much of anything yesterday, I'm still looking for the same thing - whether we can hold above this 96.75 level and get speculators to take us up to 2100.

Yesterday we were looking for 2002.50 to hold. It turned out 2002 was the low yesterday but that's now broken overnight and we've moved down to 97.50 and it would be a beautiful thing if that held as it's nice and obvious and gives us the best chance of people joining into the upside. I'm watching 94.75 and 85 below as points we could hold too.



The 85 is the top of that major distribution from last week. and the 94.75 is where the red line is.



We can see yesterday was a really tight range - after the first hour we'd just moved a little over 6 points. So of course, we have to be aware that we may be setting up for a range week. So eyes on the volume into the open.

So biased towards for a hold for more upside and that will be negated if we see sellers come in with volume. I don't particularly expect high volume to the upside at least till we clear yesterdays high.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1958 ->2012.75
Value - 1971.50 -> 1989
S1 - 1974.75 R1 - 2029.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2002 -> 2015
Value 2005 -> 2011.50
Globex 1997.50 -> 2010

Settlement - 2009.25

Today only - 1994.75, 1985

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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16th March



Still waiting for a decision on this 96.75 level - can we hold and move to 2100 or are we going back to 1920. Just waiting for something to happen that tells us speculators are taking it one way or the other.



We held the 1994.75 level yesterday, putting in a low of 1995. There wasn't a great deal of follow through but we aren't expecting a race to the upside, at least not until we break 2015. I still have 1985 as a level but really - we should be testing the upside now, not the downside.



Overnight we've moved up and held yesterdays value low. So that could be our test for the day.

So into the open - still bear in mind that this lookas like a low volume range week. So my scenarios today are:
- buying off the open but be cautious around this weeks value high
- if we see mild selling off the open - look for a downside test to hold
- expect decent participation only if we break the range - otherwise fade the range

Weekly Numbers
Range 1995 ->2015
Value - 2003.50 -> 2011.50
S1 - 1974.75 R1 - 2029.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1995 -> 2007 / 2010
Value 1998 -> 2004
Globex 2004.75 -> 2011.75

Settlement - 2015.75

Today only - 1994.75, 1985

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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21st March



Presumption going into this week is that we are headed up to 2100. Not necessarily in a straight line though...



Looking at the weekly profile, we can see an upper distribution has a low of 28.75. The major distribution below has a high of 2011. So I have an eye on both levels as places a pullback could hold. If we do get below 28.75, we have to be on the lookout for a swift move to 2011 as not much traded between the two prices last week.



We didn't make much headway on Friday and it may well be time for a pullback going into today. So I'm expecting 2100 overall and looking for pullbacks to 27-28.75 (27 is Thursday low) and if not, 2011.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1995 -> 2042.75
Value - 1997.50 -> 2023.50
S1 - 2007.25 R1 - 2055

Daily Numbers
Range 2027 / 2033 -> 2042.75
Value 2036 -> 2040.50
Globex 2031 -> 2044.25

Settlement - 2037.50

Today only - 2027-2028.75, 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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22nd March



Very poor volume yesterday at 1.2 million. And we didn't stray far from Fridays range , we also stayed within the overnight range in the day session. As usual, when we get a week starting like this, first scenario on our mind has to be a low volume range week - or at least a few days.



I'm still watching 2028.75. We came close yesterday but moved up and it's the low overnight so far. I also have an eye on 2011 as potential support.



Not much to be gained from this other than the low range.

Scenarios
- range week - look to fade the extremes or breaks of the extreme. At some point volume will build and cause a breakout
- move up to 2100 - moves off support at 28.75 or 11 to bring in additional buyers
- No short bias until 2011 is broken to the downside

Weekly Numbers
Range 1995 -> 2042.75
Value - 1997.50 -> 2023.50
S1 - 2007.25 R1 - 2055

Daily Numbers
Range 2031 /2032.75 -> 2044.25 / 2044.50
Value 2036.75 -> 2042.75
Globex 2028.75 -> 2044.75

Settlement - 2042.75

Today only - 2028.75, 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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23rd March



OK - so same thing as previous days this week, still biased towards us being on the way to 2100. Volume was a little higher yesterday but way below what we've been seeing over the past months. Still have an eye on 2028.75 and 2011 for support.



And obviously - stuck in a range. With holidays on Friday and no news today, we are relying almost entirely on the build up of positions in this range causing a move. We do have unemployment claims on Thursday but for now, we need to presume rangebound behavior for the rest of the week.



Best opportunity in these markets is usually the opening swings. So looking for an early trade today, just jumping on whichever direction we see momentum.

Once that's over with, I'll be looking to fade the yesterdays value/range and then the weekly range.

Within that area (if we don't get to the extremes), trying to scalp off developing shorter term high volume nodes is a possibility but it wasn't working that well yesterday AM as the market was so weak. There was no follow through. So if I get a couple of failed scalps because of poor follow through, I'll call it a day.

Of course, we could break out today - but I'm looking for really strong volume to join a break, otherwise I'll presume a headfake.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2028.75-> 2047.50
Value - 2034.75 -> 2043.25
S1 - 2007.25 R1 - 2055

Daily Numbers
Range 2028.75 / 2030.50 -> 2047.50
Value 2038 -> 2046
Globex 2037.75 -> 2045.25

Settlement - 2042.50

Today only - 2028.75, 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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24th March



We broke the range and have put in a decent run down overnight. I'm still watching 2011 as a line in the sand for upside bias. If we can hold that, I think we have a good chance of hitting 2100 next time up.



We can see the 2011 level from last week - the top of the major distribution.



Yesterday we just popped down through the bottom of the range. It's Thursday before a holiday. Volume is low, and so we might take back the losses at the US open. So watch for that. If the US markets accept these lows, then I'm looking for 2011 to decide on bias.

Scenarios
- bounce back to range off the open
- continuation down to test 2011, potentially looking at more participation the lower we go
- very good chance of a low volume, low range day though with the Easter holidays coming up

Weekly Numbers
Range 2016.75-> 2047.50
Value - 2033.25 -> 2043.50
S1 - 2007.25 R1 - 2055

Daily Numbers
Range 2025.25 -> 2038.50 / 2045.25
Value 2030.50 -> 2036
Globex 2016.75 -> 2029.25

Settlement - 2028.75

Today only - 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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29th March



Always a tricky start after a holiday. I didn't trade yesterday but the markets were open - but it was still a holiday in many places. Volume was low.

So this is the start of the week as far as I am concerned and also - I don't really have a "yesterday" to play off. So today, I'm just going to sit on the sidelines at the start to see what develops.

Overall I'm still bullish above 2011 with a view to moving to 2100



Looking above, we can see a large distribution from 2032 -> 2043.50. I'm interested to see if we can get back into this area. If not and we fail a test there, I could see speculators coming in to play it short. I don't really have any other scenarios than that to play going in.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2013.25-> 2047.50
Value - 2032.50 -> 2043.50


Daily Numbers
Range N/A
Value N/A
Globex 2022 -> 2033.50

Settlement - N/A

Today only - 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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