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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #701 (permalink)
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10th February



Yesterday we were looking for signs the market had bottomed out and we didn't get that. What we got indecisive. Overnight, we have seen a push up, so I'm looking for signs of continuation at the open. We settledvery close to the prior days settlement.



If we do move up, the first hurdle I have is 1894, which is the bottom of the distribution from last week. To the downside, we have the top of last weeks distribution which is at 1855.



Looking at the past few days, it looks like we are setting up for range bound behavior. So into the open today, I'm wary of the market dropping down back into the range of the past 2 days.

So my 2 scenarios for today
- continuation upwards to complete the range at 1929
- move down back into the range of the past 2 days and move sideways within it


Weekly Numbers
Range 1821.75 -> 1884.50
Value - 1833.75 -> 1854.25
S1 - 1847, R1 - 1922

Daily Numbers
Range 1825.75-> 1863.75
Value 1836.25 -> 18852.75
Globex 1838.50 -> 1870.50

Settlement - 1848.35
Today only - 1894, 1855

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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  #703 (permalink)
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11th February



We did fall back into the range yesterday and overnight we've dropped below it, through the 1814 level. We haven't been as low as the January low of 1804.25 but we should keep an eye on that area.

So I am looking at 2 scenarios -
1 a drop and a failed test back up to see us make more downside moves
2 market has tested below 1814 - we may go as low as a test of 04.25 but the downside can't hold and we then head back up to 1929



Above us the 1833.25 is where the bulk of volume has traded this week, so if we hit that, we may find that's as high as we can go.



Not much to say based on the split profile. We have put in a large gap down from yesterdays low, so careful with shorts off the open (or any time from now) as we may snap back when the US stock markets start trading. An early initial upside swing would be a good opportunity jump on.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1808.75 -> 1884.50
Value - 1833-> 1862.25
S1 - 1847, R1 - 1922

Daily Numbers

Range 1838.50 / 1843.50 -> 1877.75
Value 1856.75 -> 1869.25
Globex 1808.75 -> 1847.25

Settlement - 1846.75
Today only - 1833.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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  #704 (permalink)
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12th Feburary



We are still in the same place as yesterday. Still looking to see if we can push down through the range we have been in this year and make headway downwards or if we'll return to the range high of 1929. Right now, there doesn't seem to be much willing to trade down past the years low.

We are just below the 1843 level overnight so that's the first hurdle to the upside from here.



Yeseterday we were watching 33.25 and we got as high as 33.50 in the AM and then pushed through into the close. That doesn't look so significant today from the weekly profile but we have the day high on our list anyway today the middle distribution from the profile is below us a 1825.25. So I'm watching that as potential support.



We can see that overnight we've had a push up, so there could be an initial counterswing down when the stocks open.

Scenarios

1 - swing down off the open with little strength and then a push up, eventually testing 1929 (maybe not today)
2 - push down through 1804 to search for sellers.

For scenario 2 - I'll play the downside but I think there's been no sign of sellers there so far, so I think (opinion only) that any push through will fail. That's just opinion, I'm not married to it....

I see no reason for a true push down to fail before 1804 but sellers backed off at 1805 yesterday so if we get close, watch out for a sudden lack of guts on behalf of the sellers.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1802.50 -> 1884.50
Value - 1823.25-> 1860.75
S1 - 1847, R1 - 1922

Daily Numbers
Range 1802.25 / 1805 -> 1834.75
Value 1811-> 1836
Globex 1822.50 -> 1843.75

Settlement - 1824.50
Today only - 1835.35

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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15th Feb - US Bank Holiday - no trading today for me

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  #706 (permalink)
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16th Feb



Bigger picture is that we have tested the January lows. Now expectation should be that we now move up to the top of the range which is 1929.

We could fail and if we do fail before testing 1929, then we have a better chances of actually breaking the January lows and make serious headway downwards.



We have a large distribution of trade that tops off at 1853.50. If we move down, I'll be watching that for support.



I don't put too much stock into what happened yesterday but I will be watching the daily low. I tend to ignore the numbers from any holiday days but we don't have much to play off and this is the low of the "gap up". I'll be ignoring the value area from yesterday.

So overall expecting us to carry on up to 1929. I am expecting any moves down with low/regular volume to find support and be the springboard for a move up. We have had a big move up since Fridays close, so we could see an initial move down.

I'm not married to the upside, but I'm in a fairly serious relationship with it.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1802.50 -> 1884.50
Value - 1825.25-> 1859.75
S1 - 1812.75 R1 - 1894.75

Daily Numbers
Range
Value
Globex 1865 -> 1892.75 (basically everything since the Sunday open)

Settlement -
Today only -

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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17th February



We are still headed up and the higher we get, the closer we get to the point that any down move can be considered failure to reach the top of the range. So 1929 is the top of the range but there's no way to know at this point if it'll reverse or carry on up. So I'll let it reverse or break and then try to get on whichever way it unfolds.



Looking at this profile, we have a bell shaped distribution and so we have to be wary of falling back into that and rotating for a few days. So if we go below this weeks value area, I'll be expecting chop.



Looking at the split profile, we can see that we didn't make much progression to the upside. In fact all of the moves up to this level seem to have occurred in the European session with the US session just holding the gains. I would feel more comfortable about the upside if we could make headway in the US session today.

In summary
- overall bias upside to 1929
- if globex carries on up, I'd expect some sore of pullback off the open and I'll go long that as long as there's not too much volume
- a move straight up off the open would be joined with caution
- if we move down off the open, I will ignore it unless there is a lot of volume- it's countertrend in the short term
- look out for chop 1870-1891.50 if we do head down

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 ->1901.75
Value - 1878 -> 1891.50
S1 - 1812.75 R1 - 1894.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1870.35 -> 1892.50 / 1892.75
Value 1878.50 >-> 1892.50 / 1892.75
Globex 1881.50 -> 1901.75 (and climbing)

Settlement - 1888.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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18th January



A simple day today. We've hit the top of the range, so now we are waiting to see if we can break the range or head back down to 1800.



From a weekly profile perspective it looks like we should get acceleration to the downside if we break 1915.



Not much to say based on the daily profiles other than confirming potential support at 1915 and acceleration below.

Safest bet today is to wait for this area to be resolved and then get in. There tends to be a lot of pushing and pulling in major areas like this and there's a lot of false signals. When it breaks - stops get triggered and jumping on is easier.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 ->1933.50
Value - 1866.50 -> 1901
S1 - 1812.75 R1 - 1894.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1881.50 / 1904 -> 1927.50
Value 1916.50 >-> 1924.50
Globex 1916.75-> 1933.50

Settlement - 1922.75
Today only - 1915

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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19th February



The range is still unresolved in my opinion. We do seem to be holding the top of the range but sellers have not shown up yet, so my bias at this point is still neutral and still waiting for volume to come in one way or the other.



The upper distribution for this week was extended down yesterday. I was expecting sellers to come in on a break of 1915 but they didn't, it was just a probe. I'm still looking for this area to break with volume for a short bias.



Yesterdays range was small and we had the lowest volume for some time. So there's indecision. My plan is to take small bites unless I can see a decisive move.

If I had to have a bias, it would be downside as we are in an overall range - but I think it's worth being patient as it's easy to get caught out at the extremes.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 ->1933.50
Value - 1866.50 -> 1918
S1 - 1812.75 R1 - 1894.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1911.25 -> 1927 / 1933.50
Value 1914.50 >-> 1921.50
Globex 1911.75-> 1922.75

Settlement - 1916.50
Today only - 1913.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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22nd February

I'm, a frustrated trader right now. Internet has been intermittent for over a week and the ISP have no clue what is wrong. It's disconnecting 4-5 times an hour anywhere between 1 and 45 minutes at a time. So I'm not trading but I am watching.... Sort of a market voyeur...



We couldn't hold above 1929 this week but have popped up in the Globex session. Of course that is on low volume and we could very easily lose all that at the US open. So into the open - looking for signs of a snap back down or that we can hold, with 29 being the reference point.



We've not traded anywhere much overnight and as we speak, the Eurex exchange is errrr.... broken. No reasons given yet but it's off & they are working on it. Not even sure what to make of that. Note that we managed to settle on Friday just 1 point above Thursday.



We have stair stepped up so far, so we do have a few downside reference points building below us but it's a bit early to put these up for consideration into the open. I'd like to see us consolidate those gains by trading some volume at a price, building some positions and giving us an area worth defending as we open up.

So - into the open - if we are still above 29, looking to see if we can hold above it or if we lose these overnight losses. We could lose the overnight losses before then in which case I'd be a little more inclined to short close to the open. We've spent a few days around this 29 area, so we could get shaken out either way before the market decides whether to stay in the range or start moving up again.

IF my internet was reliable, I'd be more concerned about getting caught up in shakeouts than making $$$. As it is I'm an armchair quarterback today....

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 ->1933.50
Value - 1867.50 -> 1917
S1 - 1880.75 R1 - 1937.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1898.50-> 1916 / 1922.75
Value 1907 >-> 1914.50
Globex 1908.25-> 1938.75

Today only - 1914.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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