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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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28th January

This is an early prep today as I have some errands to run before the open.



Still looking very indecisive. FOMC didn't help much, so all eyes on unemployment numbers today as a potential catalyst.



We popped through the top of last weeks high but then dropped back into what is now a single distribution for the week. So I'm expecting rotation between 1865 and 1900 for the rest of the week if we don't get some news to move us out.



That ties in with yesterdays range too. So looking to go long below 1865 and short above 1900. Continuations out of the range will only be taken if a break is made with significant volume.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1851.25-> 1910
Value - 1876.75 -> 1900.50
S1 - 1834.85-, R1 - 1932.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1864.50 -> 1910
Value 1879.50 -> 1905
Globex 1866.25 -> 1889.50

Today only 1865

Settlement - 1896

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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Market Chamois
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Is this a new machine so quick or were you able to fix/work around the issue? Either way nice work, congrats!

Ron


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O sorry my bad..... I see, new one ....cool

Ron


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...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
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29th January



I don't want to repeat everything from yesterdays prep but we are still in the same range and therefore still looking to fade the extremes - 1865/1900 - although it looks like the upside target is a little closer to 1902.50



Here we can see the distribution for the week. Any comment would be superfluous.



Also keep an eye on yesterdays value area which has so far (ok - with a point or so push thru) held overnight.

Simple day - fade the range unless we see volume coming into the market. It's Friday, so we may end the week with more of a fizzle than a bang. There is a chance that we will break out but I think that is lower probability.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1851.25-> 1910
Value - 1877.25 -> 1898
S1 - 1834.85-, R1 - 1932.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1865.75 -> 1896.25 / 1902.50
Value 1878.50 -> 1891
Globex 1876.50 -> 1903

Today only 1865, 1902.50

Settlement - 1880.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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1st February



Surprise (to me) on Friday that we did actually see the breakout. Volume and range both high. We are now back to the 1929 area and today we need the market to show if it can keep these prices and make more headway upside or if we get a snap back after what was an elongated move up.



The top of value is 1900 and the top of the main area of distribution is 1901. So if we do go back down, I'll be looking to see if that holds for a continuation up. Below 1900, I think the chance of upside reduces.



Nothing much from the split daily profiles. Obviously the high is a line in the sand that needs to be breached for more upside. So far it has held but we haven't seen sellers really jump on that. So into today - look for selling with high volume right from the open if we are still around these prices. It may be that as we get into the open, a continuation of the overnight 'rejection' of Fridays high will continue. In that case, it's a jump on board move.

Otherwise, I'm looking for it to move and test the high, then to see volume come in which ever way it resolves. To the downside, not much interests me for longs till 1901. Saying that - if we develop volume intraday and lean on that, I would take a long.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1851.25-> 1933
Value - 1877.25 -> 1900
S1 - 1885.50, R1 - 1954

Daily Numbers
Range 1876.50 / 1893.25 -> 1933
Value 1907.25 -> 1932.75
Globex 1917.50 -> 1932.50

Today only 1901

Settlement - 1930

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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2nd Feb



Opinion pretty much unchanged from yesterday. We settled just 5 ticks above Fridays settlement. I still see upside potential as long as we stay above 1900-1901 and I see 1929 above as a hurdle we need to get over and potential futures support if we do.



Most trading has been below 29. We did spike above it but couldn't hold that overnight. So as we open, looking to see if we can get back there and make up what was lost overnight. The value area from last week remains untested.



We have held yestedays low so far. I'll be watching for volume on any breaks. Patience is key today in my opinion. Yesterday was quite slow off the open and we didn't get much of an initial swings. I really need it above 1929 or below 1900 to give me a trade I can take with confidence. So until then, I'll be taking smaller scalps if the opportunity arises.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1851.25-> 1933
Value - 1877.25 -> 1900
S1 - 1885.50, R1 - 1954

Daily Numbers
Range 1912.50 -> 1940
Value 1915.50 -> 1931
Globex 1914.50 -> 1927.50

Today only 1901

Settlement - 1931.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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3rd February



Back into last weeks value range then...



With us eating into the value range from last week, I'm looking for use to reach 1866 - the bottom of the distribution from last week.




Yesterday was quite indecisive from the open and we are back into last weeks value area, right now, we've reversed off the POC from last week. I think a continuation trade down is a good move if there is decent volume. Otherwise I'm hands off till 1866. For longs, I would like to see us reach 1866 or get above 1901 again.

I think any difficulties today would be if we have another indecisive start where we chop around. Yesterday we basically had a range, then a breakdown at lunchtime and then a lower range. The AM range was the smallest we've seen for a while.

After the wide ranges we've had in January, this change in pace will most likely catch lots of people out. So my plan is to try not to be one of them.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1885.50 -> 1940
Value - 1902.75 -> 1933.25
S1 - 1885.50, R1 - 1954

Daily Numbers
Range 1889 -> 1914 / 1932
Value 1896.75 -> 1909.75
Globex 1885.50 -> 1908.75

Today only 1866, 1900

Settlement - 1897.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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4th February



We were looking at 1866 for a buy yesterday and we go to 1865 before turning up.

This is a very indecisive market - so trying to predict scenarios here is a bit tough.

I'm still of the overall opinion:
--> 1866 is an area to look for buyers
--> 1929 is a potential hurdle above - so participation after a hold or a break is OK
--> 1900 and above is a good buy



As we can see, we got down to the low of the distribution from last week. We just need to see some follow through now and stay above the 1929 level.



Not much to say based on the daily profile - it's all about the levels above.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865.50 -> 1940
Value - 1896.75 -> 1929.25
S1 - 1885.50, R1 - 1954

Daily Numbers
Range 1865.50-> 1912.25
Value 1871.75 -> 1898.25
Globex 1906 -> 1922.25

Today only 1866, 1900

Settlement - 1908.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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8th February

Well - you have to laugh at the financial press "doom and gloom as market sells off on poor employment numbers" - yes, it sold off on Friday and went all the way down to Wednesdays low...



We are at the bottom of the range we've been in for the last few weeks, so first thing to look our for is completion to the downside and a move back up to 1929. If not, my downside target is 1814.



Looking at the profile from last week, we can see that volume tails off below 1892, so I have that as potential resistance in any move up - if we work through that - I expect to see the other side of value.



We had a pullback to 1886 on Friday, so I'll be watching that into todays open. We have had a big push down overnight & that is continuing as I type. So into the open, i'm looking to see whether those lows can hold or we snap back up off the open. We have a good chance of an extended first swing off the open based on where we are now. It's along way down to 1814. We do have a level at 1843 but it wasn't very significant last time we were down here.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 -> 1940
Value - 1894 -> 1925.25
S1 - 1847, R1 - 1922

Daily Numbers
Range 1865.75-> 1905.25 / 1914.50
Value 1868 -> 1886.50
Globex 1853 -> 1884.50

Today only 1866

Settlement - 1875.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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9th Feb



Yesterday we were looking for a downside target of 1814. We've been as low as 21.50. We could now be done to the downside, we've been close and we know that rangebound markets often fall short. So into today, I'm looking for the buying we have seen so far in the overnight session to continue for a long trade.



Last weeks low is at 1865, so I'll be watching that as potential resistance.



There's not much from yesterday other than the days range. I think best chance of participation is to upside, if we do move down, I want a little more confirmation. Preferably a move off a technical level such as yesterdays high that would bring in some sellers.

Bottom line is we've had a big sell off - we've now gotten close to the lows of August 2015 and Jan 2016 and people will be looking to the upside if those lows hold. That gives us participation to ride on their coat tails. Downside is somewhere we haven't been for a while and my presumption on any move below 1814 is that it's a headfake until proven otherwise.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 -> 1940
Value - 1894 -> 1925.25
S1 - 1847, R1 - 1922

Daily Numbers
Range 1821.75-> 1855 / 1884.50
Value 1826.50 -> 1842.50
Globex 1832 -> 1854.50

Settlement - 1852

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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