DTs Pre Market Prep - futures io
futures io



DTs Pre Market Prep


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Jigsaw Trading with 1,135 posts (6,417 thanks)
    2. looks_two WilleeMac with 13 posts (9 thanks)
    3. looks_3 xplorer with 13 posts (13 thanks)
    4. looks_4 trendisyourfriend with 12 posts (10 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Jigsaw Trading with 5.7 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 2.6 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 DavidHP with 1.4 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 xplorer with 1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 265,248 views
    2. thumb_up 6,587 thanks given
    3. group 286 followers
    1. forum 1,333 posts
    2. attach_file 1,518 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

DTs Pre Market Prep

(login for full post details)
  #601 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

24th August



I'm running out of levels. So we are through the 1946 level which wipes out the years gains. Below I'm targeting 1860 and then 1790.25.

The question today - will we carry on down or not. Either way it could be violent.



Here's what we've done overnight. A gap down and then the bottom fell out of the market yet again. A 50 point overnight range! I'm looking to see what happens if we get back to 1946 but otherwise I have very little to play off.

As the futures are way down and the underlying stocks have not traded yet - I would be very cautious into this open because that balance needs to be addressed.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1968 -> 2103.75
Value 2060.25 -> 2027.25
S1 - 1926, R1 - 2058.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1978 -> 2022.25 / 2029
Value - meaningless on a day like Friday
Globex - 1911 -> 1964.75

Settlement - 1971.50

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 10 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #602 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

25th August

Well - yesterday was an interesting day.

I'm not trading today - this is not really the sort of action I like to trade. It's not predictable from my perspective. I am going to let it settle down.

What I am doing is scaling into some long term positions on the way down. We've not had much of a buying opportunity for ages.

For those of you that choose to trade today. Best of luck.

Cheers

Pete

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #603 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

26th August

Still waiting for the markets to return to normality before day trading them.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #604 (permalink)
 PeakGrowth 
Sydney, Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, IRESS
Broker: IB, IQFeed
Trading: ES, SPI, ASX stocks, options
 
Posts: 399 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 169 given, 463 received

How long you reckon? I'm hoping in a day or two. On side lines as well.

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Tapatalk

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #605 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


PeakGrowth View Post
How long you reckon? I'm hoping in a day or two. On side lines as well.

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Tapatalk

I would guess at least the end of the week. I don't mind the break to be honest - and I'm sitting on some cash so the opportunity to get into longer term positions will more than make up for the lack of day trading.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #606 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

31st August



Back at it, although it still does look very volaltile based on the overnight action.

We have had our bounce back up but stalled at the 92.25 level. So I'm looking to see if that holds for more downside or if we can break up and carry on up into the old range - up through 2023.



On a weekly basis we see the main distribution is below 1950, so as we head down, I'm looking for potential support there.



If we do break 1950, then my last line in the sand is 1934.50 which is basically the low of the start of the smaller range sessions we had later in the week.

So wary of the volatility but I think we are at an inflection point with the level just above us.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1831 -> 1992.25
Value 1870.75 -> 1947.50
S1 - 1924.50, R1 - 2061

Daily Numbers
Range -1967.25 / 1971.50 (day) -> 1991 (day) / 1992.75
Value - 1976.25 -> 1984.25
Globex - 1959.25 -> 1987.75

Settlement - 1989.75

Today Only - 1950, 1934.50

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #607 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

September 1st

We still have low liquidity. So it's still volatile and I'm still not too bothered about trading this action.



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We have had our bounce back up but stalled at the 92.25 level. So I'm looking to see if that holds for more downside or if we can break up and carry on up into the old range - up through 2023.

So far it looks like that 92.25 level wants to hold and we've broken through the 46.25 level overnight.



We also had 1950 as a line in the sand yesterday because below that puts us in the main distribution from last week. So a traverse to the opposite end is on the cards.



And this is what makes today interesting. We maintained above 1950 yesterday and so the the drop below our levels is all overnight.

So into the open, I'm looking to see if we get a snap back from this overnight move or if it can be sustained. There's a lot of emotional trading going on and the media isn't helping.

So I'll be watching how the stocks do into the open - if they don't follow the move down in the futures, or if it's just a quick spike down on the stocks in the first 30 mins and then buyers jump in, that will make it interesting.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1831 -> 1992.25
Value 1870.75 -> 1947.50
S1 - 1924.50, R1 - 2061

Daily Numbers
Range -1959.25 / 1962.25 (day) -> 1983.75 (day) / 1987.75
Value - 1966.75 -> 1976.75
Globex - 1931 -> 1966.25 -

Settlement - 1969.25

Today Only - 1950, 1934.50

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #608 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

2nd September



The question yesterday was whether we'd have a pop up off the open as the futures/stocks sorted themselves out. We did get that but we didn't get close to closing the gap. I'm still not too interested in trading this though.



We do have an area 46.25-50.00 that has the potential to act as resistance and gives us some direction for the day. So eyes on that area.



Most interesting is that we've taken back some of the losses from yesterday in the overnight session. So yesterday the sky was falling and today it's spring again. We can see that the overnight session is within yesterdays range, so I'm going to wait for us to test the extremes from yesterdays day session as I think that despite the 46.50-50.00 hurdle above, I think if we can pop yesterdays range, we may well close the gap and end up back at 65.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1898.75 -> 1987.75
Value 1927.50 -> 1987.50
S1 - 1924.50, R1 - 2061

Daily Numbers
Range -1989.75 -> 1939.50
Value - 1914.75 -> 1933.75
Globex - 1907.25 -> 1939

Settlement - 1916

Today Only - 1946.50-1950

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #609 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

3rd September



Still no overall direction in the market but it does appear the range may be narrowing. Still high volume, volatile days.



We still have an eye on the 46.50-50.00 level. That's where we are sitting right now. I would like to see us leave that area and re-test it for an extended move.



We've had a little pop up overnight, and we can see that below us at 1940, the high from Tuesday, so also looking for that to hold on a move down, again to see a little more one sided trading to the upside.

Still, has to be said. It's still a very risky market.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1898.75 -> 1987.75
Value 1909.25 -> 1955.75
S1 - 1924.50, R1 - 2061

Daily Numbers
Range -1907.25 / 1916.25 (day) -> 1948.25
Value - 1922.25 -> 1935.75
Globex - 1944.25 -> 1957.50

Settlement - 1947

Today Only - 1946.50-1950, 1940

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #610 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

4th September



As per yesterday, the range still appears to be narrowing, so barring any shocks in the Employment numbers, it looks set to be a relatively sedate day.

Yesterday, we saw less volatility and higher liquidity (aka market depth). We also saw a fail at the overnight high. In addition, the cumulative delta has been quite useless (for me) in this volatile period but was a good bias indicator yesterday. All that adds up to the potential of normal liquidity returning soon. So an eye on all that and the vix, so we can make the adjustments as it happens.




On a weekly basis, we are in the middle of the major distributions from both this week and last. I'll be keeping an eye on the lower traded area at 42.50.



There was a late pullback to 57.25 last night (just above developing weekly value high), so that's a line in the sand but basically, it's a narrowing range, so I am going in with no bias. I'll be looking at pre-market volume profile as well as the usual levels to key off.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1898.75 -> 1987.75
Value 1912.25 -> 1956.75
S1 - 1924.50, R1 - 2061

Daily Numbers
Range -1942 (day) -> 1973.50
Value - 1946.75 > 1963.25
Globex - 1928 -> 1949.25

Settlement - 1946

Today Only - 1942.50, 1957.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #611 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

8th September



Still in the narrowing range, so no clear direction from my perspective.



Yesterday was a vacation in the US but as you can see we are in the middle of the last 2 weeks range, so again, that doesn't give us much of a hint as to which way it will go.



A big move up overnight through and much higher than Fridays close so far. So if this is still the case into the open, we need to be on the lookout for an opening move down to "rebalance"as we open. For the brave that means jumping in short on any sign of weakness for an early trade. For those less brave, you stand aside and let it work out for the first 15 minutes to see if it wants to continue or not. I'm in the latter group into today, as it's directionless overall. I'll be looking for last weeks highs and lows to key off as well as intraday levels.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1898.75 -> 1987.50
Value 1910.25 -> 1953.25
S1 - 1883, R1 - 2045.75

No daily numbers - yesterday was a holiday and so who knows if people will be looking to yesterday or Friday


Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #612 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

9th September



Yesterday was indecision but today we have the potential of a lot of traders pointing in the same direction and actually making a decent and tradable move.

We are back to the 92.50 level, a level that has been an inflection point many times. If we fail from this point and move back down, then we do risk the chance of it being choppy below but I think initially people will jump on the down move as it's a nice well known level that people will be looking at.

To the upside, if we break up -people will be looking for us to move to 2023 and potentially beyond - or the bottom of the old range.

Anyway - we are at the top of a range and not the middle of one, so either way we break, we have a good chance of a cleaner move.



The weekly profile backs this up, we are at the top of the range from the past 2 weeks.



This is a big pop overnight, so once more look for the potential initial move down off the open. Other than that I'll be looking for a good swing with high volume either on a break or rejection of this level. That could start before the 9:30 am open.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1898.75 -> 1987.50
Value 1910.25 -> 1953.25
S1 - 1883, R1 - 2045.75

Daily Numbers
Range -1930 (overnight) / 1944 (day) -> 1968.75
Value - 1945.25 > 1957.25
Globex - 1964 -> 1992

Settlement - 1965.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #613 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

10th September

The rollover!



Today is the 'official' rollover date for the index futures. So now we move into December.

I say the 'official' date because of late the roll has taken longer and longer to occur. It used to be (3 or so years ago) that by Thursday lunchtime, the volume in the new contract would have overtaken the old one.

Now it seems to take longer. But the bottom line is that the rollover is when positions move from one contract to another.

So if you see a lot of buying in the September contract, it could mean that SHORT positions are being moved to the December contract.

On most days on the ES, you can consider almost all trading to be short term speculation. So when you see a lot of sellers, you know that eventually the sellers will need to unwind because that's what they do to end that short term trade. On a rollover day, you cannot make the same assumption.

So on days like this - it's good to watch but I prefer not to trade, not until we have December showing a clear leader in volume.

So no trading "officially" till Monday. Rollovers used to be erratic but in the past couple of years we've had some fantastic directional moves on these days, so I may well be "living in the past" with my rule of not trading these days.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #614 (permalink)
 PeakGrowth 
Sydney, Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, IRESS
Broker: IB, IQFeed
Trading: ES, SPI, ASX stocks, options
 
Posts: 399 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 169 given, 463 received


DionysusToast View Post
10th September

The rollover!



Today is the 'official' rollover date for the index futures. So now we move into December.

I say the 'official' date because of late the roll has taken longer and longer to occur. It used to be (3 or so years ago) that by Thursday lunchtime, the volume in the new contract would have overtaken the old one.

Now it seems to take longer. But the bottom line is that the rollover is when positions move from one contract to another.

So if you see a lot of buying in the September contract, it could mean that SHORT positions are being moved to the December contract.

On most days on the ES, you can consider almost all trading to be short term speculation. So when you see a lot of sellers, you know that eventually the sellers will need to unwind because that's what they do to end that short term trade. On a rollover day, you cannot make the same assumption.

So on days like this - it's good to watch but I prefer not to trade, not until we have December showing a clear leader in volume.

So no trading "officially" till Monday. Rollovers used to be erratic but in the past couple of years we've had some fantastic directional moves on these days, so I may well be "living in the past" with my rule of not trading these days.

Ha, seems I've being watching the action on the wrong contract today, some seriously funky stuff happened and didn't know what to make of it. Think I should probably stay out too then... Such a boring 4 weeks.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to PeakGrowth for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #615 (permalink)
 grausch 
Luxembourg, Luxembourg
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Stocks
 
Posts: 491 since May 2012
Thanks: 1,641 given, 1,149 received


DionysusToast View Post
10th September

The rollover!



Today is the 'official' rollover date for the index futures. So now we move into December.

I say the 'official' date because of late the roll has taken longer and longer to occur. It used to be (3 or so years ago) that by Thursday lunchtime, the volume in the new contract would have overtaken the old one.

Now it seems to take longer. But the bottom line is that the rollover is when positions move from one contract to another.

So if you see a lot of buying in the September contract, it could mean that SHORT positions are being moved to the December contract.

On most days on the ES, you can consider almost all trading to be short term speculation. So when you see a lot of sellers, you know that eventually the sellers will need to unwind because that's what they do to end that short term trade. On a rollover day, you cannot make the same assumption.

So on days like this - it's good to watch but I prefer not to trade, not until we have December showing a clear leader in volume.

So no trading "officially" till Monday. Rollovers used to be erratic but in the past couple of years we've had some fantastic directional moves on these days, so I may well be "living in the past" with my rule of not trading these days.

Most ETFs use futures to some degree to maintain their exposure. In the past there was an exploitable edge, i.e. when these ETFs rolled their contracts, you could try and front-run them and by shorting the closer month and buying the next month. This trader made decent money using that strategy Emil van Essen - IASG but I don't think he trades it anymore. I believe it was his spread-trading strategy and the performance was good for a year or two and thereafter it decreases quite a lot.

I believe most of the ETFs and LTTF funds now start rolling over earlier and try and minimize their impact in order to keep their roll-over cost as low as possible. Another example of how the market constantly changes...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grausch for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #616 (permalink)
 Psy24X 
Milano, Italy, EU
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja + Jigsaw
Trading: ES
 
Psy24X's Avatar
 
Posts: 36 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 114 given, 25 received


DionysusToast View Post
10th September

The rollover!

So on days like this - it's good to watch but I prefer not to trade, not until we have December showing a clear leader in volume.

So no trading "officially" till Monday. Rollovers used to be erratic but in the past couple of years we've had some fantastic directional moves on these days, so I may well be "living in the past" with my rule of not trading these days.

I like pretty much the Cme "Quarterly Roll Analyzer" to gauge the rollover process. Here is the link, but I'm afraid you can see the tool only if you registered to Cme website.

However, according to it we were lagging way behind as of yesterday, with just above 10% of the contracts already rolled.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Psy24X for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #617 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


grausch View Post
Most ETFs use futures to some degree to maintain their exposure. In the past there was an exploitable edge, i.e. when these ETFs rolled their contracts, you could try and front-run them and by shorting the closer month and buying the next month. This trader made decent money using that strategy Emil van Essen - IASG but I don't think he trades it anymore. I believe it was his spread-trading strategy and the performance was good for a year or two and thereafter it decreases quite a lot.

I believe most of the ETFs and LTTF funds now start rolling over earlier and try and minimize their impact in order to keep their roll-over cost as low as possible. Another example of how the market constantly changes...

Agreed - and for other markets like crude & natty gas, there's ETFs that give exposure to those that carry a lot of contracts - I guess we are lucky it's just once every 3 months for us.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #618 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

11th September



About 50/50 in terms of volume, so for me - back to it on Monday.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #619 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

14th September

The roll is done - with just under 2x the volume in December that September has. That's good enough for me.

....NOTE THERE ARE NEW LEVELS BELOW....



We are still in a narrowing range and seem to be working our way back up to the 1983 level. Again, when (if) we get there, we should get decent participation whether it holds or breaks.

If we move down today, I'd expect it to be less directional as there's not a clear target below or a clear rejection above.



We can see that the 3 week range is narrowing but moving to the upside. We can see that the bulk of trading was below 1950, so an eye on that today.



Fridays Value High has held so far, so if we do fall back to Fridays low/VAH and then push up, that would likely bring in some additional participation.

So looking upside for 83, expecting selling to lead us to lackluster trading unless the Friday High/VAH holds on a test. Also looking at the potential of 1950 being a decision point.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1906.50 -> 1982.75
Value 1922.50 -> 1947.50
S1 - 1924.25, R1 - 1977.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1927.50 -> 1951.75
Value - 1943.50 > 1945.50
Globex - 1946.50 -> 1964.25

Today only - 1950

Settlement - 1950.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #620 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

15th September



Still in a narrowing range. We have FOMC Thursday with lots of people expecting the FED to back off on raising interest rates. It may be that we stay in this small range and aren't able to escape until Thursday.

So patience is key today.



As we can see, we are now in the midst of the majority of trading from last week, which adds to the likelihood of directionless trading.



Overnight we've basically traded in yesterdays day session range so into today, a test of one of those extremes would be a good place to see a reaction.

Other than that - meh...

Weekly Numbers
Range 1906.50 -> 1982.75
Value 1922.50 -> 1947.50
S1 - 1924.25, R1 - 1977.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1936.50 -> 1952.50 / 1964.25
Value - 1938.50 > 1944.50
Globex - 1935.25 -> 1949.50

Settlement - 1944

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #621 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

16th September



We are getting close to our 1983 level which is an inflection point. We have the FOMC tomorrow, which could lead to indecision. Ideally, we'd test 1983 today and get a reaction regardless of whether it holds or not just based on the fact it's a major level. If it lazily rolls over before 1983, I'll not be so interested.



Based on yesterday, we have potential support at both 62.25 and 56, so of we do move down from here, I'll be looking for a reaction at either level.

If we don't get near either of those levels, I'm going to hold off. Unless we build up a lot of volume in an area overnight.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1906.50 -> 1982.75
Value 1922.50 -> 1947.50
S1 - 1924.25, R1 - 1977.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1935.25 / -> 1943.50 / 1973
Value - 1955.75 > 1971.75
Globex - 1962.75 -> 1972.75

Today only 1956, 1962.25

Settlement - 1970

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #622 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

17th September



So the big Fed day. I guess we all have opinions on this. My own - nothing says "our economy is weak" like holding back a 25 basis point rise because of a little pullback in the markets.

Going into today, we've broken through the 83 level but that was late yesterday.



Now we need to hold above it or roll over. So far in the Globex session, we have been mostly above it. We hade a late pullback to the value low and we also have a single just below that so also watching the 1974.75-1975 area.

So I'm watching 83 area primarily - but also with an eye out for any odd behavior/low liquidity that might indicate hands-off is the better option.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1935.25 -> 1989
Value 1942.50 -> 1973
S1 - 1924.25, R1 - 1977.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1962.50 / 1967 (day) -> 1989
Value - 1975 -> 1989
Globex - 1981 -> 1988

Settlement - 1988

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #623 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

18th September



So no rate change and ultimately - we are back where we were, back in the range. We did spike up to 5 ticks short of our 2013 which is the low of the range we started trading in March. We are now back below our 1983 level and that means back in the range.

So today, we need to break out of this or it'll be more indecision.



So today I'm all eyes on 1983.
- This is the high of the globex session so far, so watching for a move down with serious participation off the open for a run to 1936
- Also looking for a break of 1983 to the upside and to see if we get some serious participation there.

If not - it'll be more moves sideways. It's really down to whether we can get some follow through off yesterdays trading, now that traders have had the night to "cool down"

Weekly Numbers
Range 1935.25 -> 2011.75
Value 1949.25 -> 1990.75
S1 - 1924.25, R1 - 1977.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1972 -> 2011.75
Value - 1975 -> 1989
Globex - 1981 -> 1988

Settlement - 1988

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #624 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

21st September



Back down to test the 36.25 level. It looks like a test and fail to go through so far. That means we can look out for follow through as the day session opens. It also means that we are still potentially in the narrowing range and we should take caution around 1983 because we may well stop there which makes the spike up to 2013 off the back of FOMC just an aberration and not significant in terms of opening up the range.

If we can get through 36.25 to the downside, we'll need some significant volume to make any headway to the downside. All previous attempts of late have failed to make any headway to the downside. So for me, any move down with average volume will most likely fail.



Last weeks low is just below us but again, I don't expect breaking it to be significant because it still has us in the area we've been in for the past month.



I think today, It's just really a matter if sentiment has really changed off the back of the FOMC, which is really unknowable but which WILL show itself in the volume. If not, I expect more of the same.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1935.25 -> 2011.75
Value 1950.25 -> 1989.25
S1 - 1910.25, R1 - 1986.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1941.25 -> 1967.50 / 1983
Value - 1949-> 1962
Globex - 1938.50 -> 1956

Settlement - 1950.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #625 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

22nd September



Back down to the 36.25 level, we made no headway upwards yesterday, not even to the 83 level. This level has broken before without much follow through, so I really have no downside target here.



We have just about broken last weeks low so far. So if we do start moving up from here, we could see decent participation up to 83.



We have had quite a drop overnight. which is odd as I can't see any news that would have sparked a sell off other that UK deficit news.

I'm not comfortable going long at these price levels, there's really no decent levels below us to lean on. So my plan for today is to either play off any high volume levels that develop from here into the open (which is unlikely looking at the charts) or to let the first 15 minutes pass and make a judgement based on the volume and the intraday profile.

Short of yesterdays low of value low is interesting.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1935.25 -> 2011.75
Value 1950.25 -> 1989.25
S1 - 1910.25, R1 - 1986.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1938.50 / 1944.25 (day) -> 1969
Value - 1950.75-> 1962.25
Globex - 1933.75 -> 1965

Settlement - 1963

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #626 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

23rd September



Very messy to the left, so very hard to decide if we are now done to the downside or not based on this.



Looking back over the past 4 weeks. We have the 2 week low, so that does make a case for 06.50 being a potential low and for a reversal from there to bring in buyers. In fact, some traders might be looking at the bounce from overnight and seeing that as a failure to breach the two week low. So I think that we need to keep an eye on the volume off the open.



We've had a bounce overnight. And we have above average volume so far. So again, we have a case for this being a rejection.

So into today, I'm going on looking for confirmation that we have had a rejection and are now on the way up to 1983. So a move through yesterdays day session high and a fall back to test it would be ideal.

If we do move down, I'll need to find an area of high volume on the way down to lean on.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1910.25 -> 1969
Value 1929 -> 1965
S1 - 1910.25, R1 - 1986.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1917.75 / 1936.75 (day) -> 1965
Value - 1920 -> 1930
Globex - 1910.50 -> 1939

Settlement - 1932

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #627 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

24th September



Still very little overall direction and it's still tough to determine where the high/low of the range is. So right now, there really isn't much of a "bigger picture" to help us intraday. We just need to be patient as this will pass. I do have an eye on the low of 2 weeks ago at 1906.50 and the low of 3 weeks ago at 1889.50.



Looking at the profiles we can see that the day session range for the past 2 days is about the same. It is possible that we stay in this area today and possibly tomorrow. The good thing about this is the longer we stay in this range, the more positions build and the more energy we gather for the eventual breakout.

So today could be a fade day, where we just rotate around this range. If so, take solace in the fact it helps us breakout later. If we do breakout today, I think the overall range will most likely stay intact and will then look at what happens at 06.50 and 89.50 if we move downside. To the upside, that means a target of 83.

For me of late, it's mostly just small trades off the intraday action with no strong bias.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1910.50 -> 1969
Value 1918.75 -> 1949.75
S1 - 1910.25, R1 - 1986.50

Daily Numbers
Range -1910.50 / 1920.75 (day) -> 1938.75 (day) / 1941.75
Value - 1923.75 -> 1932.25
Globex - 1917 -> 1934.75

Settlement - 1928.50
Today Only 1889.50, 1906.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #628 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

28th September



It looks like we are set to end September in this horrible range. We are at the bottom of the range now but we were the past 2 trading days too and we couldn't make any headway upside. Below is we have the September low at 1889.50. It is possible that a test of this level will shake us out of this zone one way or the other.



Here are the weekly profiles. Nothing there that really gives us any directional bias.



And even uglier are the split profiles. Again, nothing here to indicate anything but a neutral bias.

Barring a test of 89.50 or some news driven volume. I'm just looking to take some early trades before we start to chop. We have had some decent moves in the middle of this, so I think you just have to be flexible right now. I'm fine treading-water in these conditions and just trying for small trades. I have had the occasional runner but I think that's been more luck than judgement.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1897.25-> 1969
Value 1917.25 -> 1949.25
S1 - 1888, R1 - 1959.75

Daily Numbers
Range -1910.25 -> 1942.50 (day) / 1951
Value - 1923.750 -> 1942.50
Globex - 1905.25 -> 1929.75

Settlement - 1919.24
Today Only 1889.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #629 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

29th September



Yesterday we broke down through the monthly low and overnight we've even made some more progress downside. Today looking to see if we can continue down or if we revert to range. I'm on the lookout for a retrace back to the 89.50 area, as I feel a reversal down from that area would bring in a lot of sellers.

To the right we have 1821.75 as the lowest point we can see on the chart. So an eye on that for at least a bounce.



I also have an eye on 97.25 if we make it up that far.

Today is all about whether we can continue downside or whether we get sucked back into the range we were in most of September. I'm a bit wary today of trading in the first 15 minutes. I'd prefer to let the market show it's hand on a day with potential like this as it could be volatile from the open.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1897.25-> 1969
Value 1917.25 -> 1949.25
S1 - 1888, R1 - 1959.75

Daily Numbers
Range -1868.75 -> 1911.75 (day) / 1929.75
Value - 1870 -> 1894.50
Globex - 1861 -> 1886

Settlement - 1872
Today Only 1889.50, 1897.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #630 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

30th September



Today I'm watching for the same as yesterday - how we react to the breakdown point. It held yesterday but overnight we have broken through the 89.50 level. It's still 4.5 hours to the open. We have the non farm employment numbers at 8:15, which could lend us a hand.

As we head into the open, I'll be watching to see if we get rejection of this overnight move back up.



So it's either back into the range to the upside or for downside to test 21.75. For upside trades, a reversal off yesterdays high or value high would be interesting. I don't expect "to the tick" reversals but from the approximate area.

For the downside, I still have 97.25 as a potential reversal point. I have no bias going into today but obviously people will be looking at yesterday and thinking "reversal" and so we should have plenty of interest whether that continues or fails.

With the volatility as it is, it's almost as if doing higher level analysis is moot as the swings, even on a relatively choppy day like yesterday, have been pretty big and fairly easy to exploit.

Weekly Numbers

Range 1861-> 1929.75
Value 1865.25 -> 1896
S1 - 1888, R1 - 1959.75

Daily Numbers
Range -1861 / 1861.50 (day) -> 1911.75 (day) /1889.75
Value - 1868.50 -> 1880.50
Globex - 1871.25 -> 1897.50

Settlement - 1874.50
Today Only 1889.50, 1897.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #631 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

1st October



We are working our way through the September range. We do have a level at 36.25, but that hasn't been relevant in September, so I don't see it being relevant today.

Volume has been the same on the way down and the way up, it's quite a schizophrenic market right now.



Looking at where we've traded in the past month, we've had the most volume at 1934, so again an eye on that level for a reversal but once through it, we should be headed to 1983. That would be normal rangebound behavior. Failure at the POC should see us testing the range lows.



We have an extended move up overnight with very little traded, so from where we are now, I'd be very cautious with any long trades if we go below 1920 as there's so little volume there we could drop down to 1907 very quickly.

With a long bias, a retest of yesterdays high or value high would be interesting trades.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1861-> 1929.75
Value 1866 -> 1905
S1 - 1888, R1 - 1959.75

Daily Numbers
Range -1871.25 / 1886.50 (day) -> 1910.50
Value - 1894.50 -> 1905
Globex - 1901.25 -> 1929.50

Settlement - 1908.75
Today Only 1934

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #632 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

October 5th



We are on our way up to the top of the range, which could well be the level above 1983 or the level we spiked up to on the FOMC - 2013. Either could be the top of the range.



The weekly profiles are fairly useless right now as we keep going over the same ground. Looking at the volume profile since we have been in this range, we can see that we have moved through the POC, which also indicates a good chance of a trip to the top of the range.

Above us at 1965.75 - just above value for this range, we have a low volume node, so we need to pay attention when we get to that point as a potential point of failure.



With a long bias, I like to look for areas of potential support below. Thursdays high of 1929.50 is a good candidate as is the single print at 1926.75.

So a long bias but as usual with the caveat that we just had a day that moved from top to bottom 60 points, and we are in a choppy area.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1861-> 1943.75
Value 1882.50 -> 1926.50


Daily Numbers
Range -1883 -> 1943.75
Value - 1900.50 -> 1943.50
Globex - 1937.25 -> 1950

Settlement - 1943
Today Only 1965.75, 1926.75->1929.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #633 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

6th October



We moved up just shy of our 1983 level. As before, this was the high of our range but there is a case for 2013 being the high of the range. That was a spike up on the FOMC news, so it's possibly just an anomaly. I think we have to keep an open mind about which is the high.

So the upshot is - we may now be done to the upside. We could now have failed to reach the range high and be starting a move down. There is also case for a move through 1983 to signal an end to the range and for us to be heading up. So basically, we are at an inflection point and so rather than flipping a coin, I plan to let it play out and then join any resulting momentum.



From a volume profile perspective - looking at the volume for the entire range, we are also above value, so again that indicates that we need to be on the lookout for the market rolling over.



To the downside, I have an eye on yesterdays value low/low as well as the 60.50 level as that's where we found support yesterday before making our way up.

Obviously, also an eye on the upside levels for a failure or any push down off the news as we may already be done to the upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1861-> 1943.75
Value 1882.50 -> 1926.50


Daily Numbers
Range -1937.25 / 1955.25 (day) -> 1980
Value - 1961.75-> 1976.25
Globex - 1963.50 -> 1976.25

Settlement - 1974.75


Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #634 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

7th October



We are still around the 2083 inflection point, we are holding for now but volume is tapering off and I think one scenario is that we sit here for the next couple of days.



Looking at the volume profile for the range, not much has changed, value has moved slightly higher but we are still at the top of value.

If we do trade here for a few days, that will build stops either side of the few days range and that could give us the momentum we need to finally break the range if we move upside. We don't have much news today, so I'm not expecting too much.



We've been above and below yesterdays range overnight. We poked through the 83 level and are new below it. Early on I'm watching yesterdays value area for a potential hold but I think this is all about the range today and I think probability is to the downside, although 'top of the range' is still to be confirmed as we've not tested the top since the 2013 FOMC spike.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1937.25-> 1985.50
Value 1962.25 -> 1981.75

Daily Numbers
Range -1962.50 -> 1982.25
Value - 1967.50-> 1975.50
Globex - 1960.50 -> 1985.50

Settlement - 1968.50


Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50
October 5th, 2015 04:53 PM

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #635 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

8th October



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We are still around the 2083 inflection point, we are holding for now but volume is tapering off and I think one scenario is that we sit here for the next couple of days.

So pretty much the same story today.... although now 3 days in a relatively tight range at the top of value, we have stops above 1991 and below 1960.50, so that may give us the push we need to break the range.

Or we could just hang here another day.

We do have unemployment numbers at 8:30, so that could give us a push.



No real change in terms of value around the range.



Today, I'll be looking to fade the extremes but expecting a headfake first if we do move upwards. Judging by the overnight action, we may be set to test the 1960.50 area first.

I'll keep an eye on volume as that'll be the best indicator of whether we wan to challenge this range or not and whether fading is the best plan.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1937.25-> 1991.25
Value 1963.25 -> 1982.75

Daily Numbers
Range -1960.50 / 1967.50 (day) -> 1991.25
Value - 1975 -> 1988
Globex - 1971-> 1989

Settlement - 1987.25

Today only - 1991, 1960.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #636 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

9th October



Looking left - the last time we hit this level was.... the last FOMC. So another FOMC and another spike up - this time falling just shy of last months spike.

Today is fairly simple - do we carry on or will we roll over & what points can we play off?



We broke out from the 1991.25 level, any move up from yesterdays value high or 1991.25, I see as a decent chance to break the 2013 level and see us then start making moves to the all time highs.

Given the tone of FOMC - it's hard to see where the bullishness will come from.

So my 'bar room guess' is that we roll over and head back to 1820.

From a trade perspective, today I'm going to stand aside the first 15 minutes and then try to join any momentum moves. Without a pullback to a reference point, I'd rather go long above 2013.

To the downside, I don't really have any resistance level I'd like to see tested first, I think if there is a sell off it'll be fairly clear plus many people will be looking at this as having failed to get to the old FOMC high anyway and that may be enough to kick off the selling.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1937.25-> 2010.50
Value 1963.25 -> 1987.75

Daily Numbers

Range -1971 / 1978.75 (day) -> 2008.75
Value - 1975 -> 1995.25
Globex - 1998.75 -> 2010.50

Settlement - 1987.25

Today only - 1991, 1960.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #637 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

12th October



Well - seems like my market profile charts aren't working today, so this is a somewhat abridged prep as I don't know what half my levels are!

We are still toying around the 2013 level - which is March Low and also the high we hit on September FOMC.

So today, as well as trying to figure out where my MP Charts went - I'll be mostly paying attention for a break out of a failure at 2013.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1937.25-> 2014
Value ?
S1 - 1888, R1 - 1970.75


Daily Numbers
Range -2004 -> 2014
Value - ?
Globex - 2001.75 -> 2012.50

Settlement - 2007.50


Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #638 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

13th October



Still up around this 2013 level, waiting to see if we can break one way or the other. No clear indication either way yet of which way we'll go, although I favor the downside.



We can see that last week most of the trading was between 62.50 and 1989, so as long as we stay above 89, the prospecr of a break upside is still likely. Below 89 and I think we'll most likely start moving to the range lows.



We have a nice little range building at the top, 1998.75-2014, we've probed down through it overnight to the single print at 96.75. Hopefully this tight range will have some stops around it that will help the break.

What we don't have today is any significant news to give us the nudge out, so we could get caught here for a couple of days.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1937.25-> 2014
Value 1960.25 -> 2001.75
S1 - 1888, R1 - 1970.75


Daily Numbers
Range -2001.75 / 2002.75 (day) -> 2011.50 (day) / 2012.50
Value - 2005 -> 2009
Globex - 1996.75 -> 2014

Settlement - 2007.50

Today only 96.75-98.75, 1989


Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #639 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

19th October

My apologies for lack of prep last week. Sometimes you run the business. Sometimes the business runs you.



My market profile charts are temporarily out of order too.

Anyway, after the "FOMC pop" we took a trip back to 1983 and that held, so I think we have a very good chance of leaving this range now. I'd like to see us come back and test 2013 because I think that'll bring in more participation.

So today - looking for longs, hopefully off a pullback. Off 2013 or off one of Fridays numbers. If we fail and roll back down, then it'll most likely be more chop - but I still expect it to be volatile and for us to have nice daily ranges. Only downside up here is Fridays really small range. We had a big move up overnight but the US session was very small.

So it's a "Go USA" day today - we want to see US traders showing a bit of enthusiasm to the upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1982.50 -> 2026.50
Value 1990 -> 2007.50
S1 1996.75, R1 - 2040.25

Daily Numbers
Range 1989.50 /2017 (day) -> 2023
Value 2017.75 -> 2020.75
Globex 2018.25 -> 2028

Settlement - 2025.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #640 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

20th October

Yesterday we had


Quoting 
So it's a "Go USA" day today - we want to see US traders showing a bit of enthusiasm to the upside.

And they didn't go.... Jeez.... Thanks Obama....



Well - yesterday we were looking for a retest of the 2013 area. We fell 5 ticks short which should be good enough but the reaction upwards, whilst giving us a new daily high, was pretty lacklustre (excuse my English spelling).

So we have a range break - but not much interest afterwards. Volume just 1.2 million yesterday. Right now, it seems there's not much interest outside of the range.



From a profile perspective, most of last weeks trading was below 2010, so we want to stay above that or I'll expect us to start working back down to 1990.



This is how range weeks start. Going today I'm watching the range extremes and how people react when we push through - if it gathers interest or if it's just a weak headfake. I still have an eye on 2013 for support but I'm trying to assess if this is just going to chop about. By 10am yesterday we were 200k contracts below average and it felt like it.

So I think today is all about the mode of the market. Trying to gauge if it's slow and fading ranges if it is. I can't for the life of me think what would bring volume in today if yesterdays hold at 14.25 didn't. Perhaps a deeper push down will give us a better reaction.

I guess I'm not expecting big things.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1982.50 -> 2026.50
Value 1990 -> 2007.50
S1 1996.75, R1 - 2040.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2014.25 -> 2027.75 (day) / 2028 (overnight)
Value 2018.75 -> 2024.75
Globex 2019.25 -> 2027.75

Settlement - 2027.50

Today only - 2010

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #641 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

21st October



Still trading low volume. Still indecisive after the push through the top.



There's not much of a story here, is there? We are in a range after popping out of a range. So once again, fade the tops if the volume is low. If we do break out (as we did yesterday), then we need to watch the volume closely to see if it's a headfake or not.

As we've said before, when we start a week like this, we can often spot on Monday that we'll be in a range for most of the week. News could get us out but it's really volume/participation that will get us out. So basically fade or look out for that.

There are of course, intraday, mid-range scalp opportunities. For me - I'm more interested in getting a few quick 3 or 4 tick trades and then calling it a day. We can get runners on the days runners are likely.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2014.25 -> 2034.25
Value 2019.50 -> 2026
S1 1996.75, R1 - 2040.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2018.50 -> 2031.50
Value 2020.50 -> 2031.50
Globex 2015.75 -> 2028.50

Settlement - 2027.50

Today only - 2010

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #642 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

22nd October




We are still in a range but we have now pushed through the bottom. So today we see if we can continue down into the old range of if this weeks range is still in effect.



Earlier this week, we had 2010 as the approximate area where the top of the bulk of trading was from last week. As it is - we got all the way down to last weeks value high at 07.50, which could give cause for upside participation. If we move down into there, then we should expect to move to 2001 and possibly 1988.75.



So far overnight, trading has been very narrow. Yesterday we had good volume on the way down but going into today I am still neutral. But we are at an inflection point, so I am hoping whichever way we break, we see some decent participation.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2007.50 -> 2034.25
Value 2018.50 -> 2028
S1 1996.75, R1 - 2040.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2008.50 -> 2031.25 (day) / 2034.25
Value 2016 -> 2027.50
Globex 2007.50 -> 2017.25

Settlement - 2008.50

Today only - 2007.50, 2001

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #643 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

23rd October



Finally a break upside. With decent volume too. It is Friday, so we could just consolidate here today but I'll be looking for downside references to be hit for more pushes up. The first of those is the 2046.75 level which gave us support around Aprilt time. Not that I think people are still in from April, just that I think people will be watching it.



Profile-wise, we have weekly value below us at 2030, which does seem a long way down for a retest - but let's not forget the volatility we have had in the past few months.



We can see we broke out from the old weeks high of 34.50 and that acted as support on the pullback yesterday. Absolutely a level to look out for as is the 48.75 level for similar reasons.

Yesterday was bullish, so it wont take too much for people to buy again, I'd much prefer to see it come down a little, find support and then move up.

All we need is a co-operative market....

Weekly Numbers
Range 2007.50 -> 2061.75
Value 2014.50 -> 2030
S1 1996.75, R1 - 2040.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2007.50 (overnight) / 2021.50 -> 2054
Value 2035.75 -> 2048.25
Globex 2051.25 -> 2061.75

Settlement - 2053

Today only - 2047.75-2048.75, 2030-2034.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.500

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #644 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

26th October



Still moving up, decent volume, so I presume we are taking a run for the highs. It's failed at both 2117 & 2092.50 previously, so an eye on those levels.

We've just broken the 46.75 level, so looking for that as a possible retest for support.



We can see a small upper distribution from last week with a low around 53.25, so again I have an eye on that.



We can see that friday day session traded within the overnight session, so what we don't want to do is stay within that area and have a range week. So again - looking at the lows from Friday for support.

We could go down but my bias is to the upside, looking for a reaction off a downside level. We actually didn't get much volume from 53 all the way down to 30 last week, so if it does break downside, it could break fast, so we have to watch out for that.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2007.50 -> 2074.50
Value 2009.50 -> 2038
S1 2025, R1 - 2090.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2051.25 (overnight) / 2056.75 -> 2073.50 / 2074.50 (overnight)
Value 2062.25 -> 2070.75
Globex 2057.50 -> 2066.25

Settlement - 2066

Today only - 2053.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.500

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #645 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

Hi All

I have a family emergency back home in the UK.

So there will be no prep for a few weeks at least.

Cheers

Pete

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 15 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #646 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,028 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,487 given, 98,345 received


DionysusToast View Post
Hi All

I have a family emergency back home in the UK.

So there will be no prep for a few weeks at least.

Cheers

Pete

Sorry Pete, our thoughts are with you

Sent from my phone

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #647 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

16th November

Back and all is relatively well back at home - my father had a heart attack and some complications as a result. He's a very fit 73 years old, he's out of hospital and now comes the mammoth task of keeping him off ladders, plastering walls and lugging dustbins around at least until he's had a bit more rest.



I've been away from the news and the markets, so this was sort of a shock. Once again we've gone for the highs and once again no interest to push through and make new ones. We've do have a level at 2013, which is where we spiked up to off the back of the September FOMC news and which was the high of that late August to mid October range.

We've gone through that but all markets are taking a bit of a dive today off the sad news in Paris. So I think that 2013 level is still in play and that we still have potential to pop up from here. These sort of news driven knee jerks tend to be short lives but we do have to respect the fact we are in a down move in a range that has lasted most of the year. So we could be heading to 1936 or 1850 in the next few trading days. My first scenario today is a pop up from here, driven by the news washing out. We do have news risk today as there could be more attacks, so it's not a day to go 'all in', in my opinion.



Looking at last weeks profile, I think 2040 and 2065 are potential hurdles but the 2040 is fairly tenuous and it's the 2065 that signals where the bulk of trading took place. Overall - looking at last week, there's not a lot of volume traded between here and 2065, so that does mean there's not much standing between here and 2065 if buyers do step up.



In terms of daily profiles - well there isn't much above us that really gives us a good area to play off. For the short side, I'l be looking at the long term levels as well as Fridays high low/value high low as my scenario 2 is a continued sell off to 1982 where I expect at least a pause if it doesn't reverse.

If the overnight session doesn't give us many clues, then I'll sit tight for the first 15 mins today to let the market show its hand a little. The bounce up is worth watching for but it's really trading against overall momentum and so I'd be more than happy to miss a decent amount of any move up for confirmation.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2016 -> 2097.75
Value 2009.50 -> 2097
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2016 -> 2039.50 (day) / 2046 (overnight)
Value 2021.25 -> 2033.25
Globex 1998.50 -> 2016.25

Settlement - 2018.50

Today only - 2040, 2065

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.500
October 23rd, 2015 04:41 PM

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #648 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

17th November



We got the bounce up yesterday, so most likely scenario is that we'll run to the highs again for another test.



We had 2065 as a level yesterday, and it's worth keeping an eye on today as that's the bottom of the bulk of trading last week and any bounce down from there could bring in a crowd of sellers. Above that area - 2080 and up, there's not much stopping us.



We also had 2040 as a level yesterday. Not much happened there but it is worth watching that as potential support today, that's just above yesterdays VAH at 2038. So more reason to watch that area.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2016 -> 2097.75
Value 2009.50 -> 2097
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1998.50 (overnight) / 2014.50 -> 2051
Value 2019-> 2038
Globex 2045.75-> 2057.25

Settlement - 2048

Today only - 2040, 2065

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.500

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #649 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

18th November



Volume still fairly decent, no sign of it tailing off as we head into the end of the year. We did get a pop up yesterday as expected but fell 6 ticks short of the 2065 level we had our eyes on.

So that makes me a bit more neutral today.



So we can see the 2065 above us and I'm still wary of that going into today.



What is interesting is this split profile - it does look like we have the potential to sit in a range for the next few days. So today I'm initially watching to see how we react at yesterdays high/low. If we extend through a few ticks and then reverse or not. If we do, then I expect to attempt to go tp the opposite extreme from yesterday.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2063.50
Value 2024.25 -> 2063.25
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2041.50 / 2063.50
Value 2046.75 -> 2056
Globex 2043 -> 2052

Settlement - 2049

Today only - 2065

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #650 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

19th November



We had a good push up after FOMC yesterday, so there's 2 things on my mind today

1 - We are close to the top, so we really should test it
2 - We had a big move up yesterday which has continued overnight and often that leads to at least an early correction down

We have a level above at 92.50 which could easily be taken out by the time we get through the 8:30am Unemployment numbers. Other than that, target is the all time high or the last failure at 2110.25.



Ideally, we'd stay above 2078 - where the top of the bulk of trading from last week occurred. Going through there makes the reversal down to 2065 more likely.



We have the high of Tuesday at 2063.50 and the breakout from yesterdays range at 2066, so again if we do move down, I'll be watching that general area for support.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2088.75
Value 2040.75 -> 2088.75
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2043 / 2052.75 -> 2082.50
Value 2055 -> 2071
Globex 2077.75 -> 2089

Settlement - 2079.75

Today only - 2063.50-2066, 2078, 2110.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #651 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

20th November



A little indecision here as we approach the highs, not much news today either so it could be a slow one. I have no real bias going into today. It's possible the "test of the highs" is done. After all - we've been up there so many times but there's just no will to move through. The FED isn't helping either with them dithering over interest rates.

We do have increased intraday risk with so many terrorist threats which will absolutely push us down if there is an event, so buyers beware.



Yesterday we mentioned 2078 which is the top of the bulk of trading from last week. We've dipped int that but so far each dip has seen some buyers come in - but nothing significant.



We had a really small range yesterday. For today, I have an eye on 2076 for a breakdown as there really wasn't that much trading between there and 63, so I do feel the downside has a lot more potential than the upside. After all if we break down, people will be seeing it as a failure to get to the highs again.

To the upside - looking for yesterdays extremes/value to act as support and if so, expecting moderate buying only.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2089.25
Value 2041.25 -> 2084.25
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2075.25 -> 2083.75 / 2089.25
Value 2077.50 -> 2081.50
Globex 2076 -> 2085.75

Settlement - 2079.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #652 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

23rd November



Still at the highs & Thanksgiving week with low volume a certainty for the end of the week. We've also got people with an eye on the Dec FOMC and the potential for an interest rake hike. We've been waiting for that one for a while though!

So I don't expect too much at all this week.



We can see an area of higher volume above 2075, and not much trading below that, so I'll be watching to see how we do when we reach that area as we have potential for a decent move down if that breaks early in the week.



What I think is likely for this week is that we'll be bracketed between the 2075.25 and the weekly high from last week. So in the middle of that area, I expect it to be tough trading and I'll be looking to join any bounces off the extremes. I don't expect much participation until that range breaks.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2094.50
Value 2041.25 -> 2086.25
S1 2037.50, R1 - 2117.50


Daily Numbers

Range 2076 / 2081.75 -> 2094.50
Value 2086 -> 2092
Globex 2083 -> 2092.50

Settlement - 2088.75

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #653 (permalink)
 paps 
SF Bay Area + CA/US
 
Experience: None
Platform: TS, TOS, Ninja(Analytics)
Trading: NQ CL, ES when volatile mrkts
 
paps's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,721 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 2,173 given, 1,710 received

what i wouldnt give for a touch of the bottom part of that range Good to have you back. hope all fine at your end.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2094.50

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #654 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

24th November

Interesting afternoon - a drunk motorbike rider hit our car at noon. He said to my wife who was driving "It's your fault, you aren't supposed to park there" to which my wife had to point out she was driving not parked when he ht the car. Then she mentioned the fact he was quite clearly drunk to which he responded "but I get drunk and ride my bike this way every day and I didn't have an accident before"....



Anyway - seems like we started the week with an expectation of low volatility but now Turkey has downed a Russian Jet we have higher volatility likely and additional news risk. So at any point today, some politician from around the world could say something that sends the market into a tailspin. Or we could have another military event that sends us tumbling.

So a day to exercise caution.



The initial reaction off the news sent the market down just short of the breakout point from last week which was at 63.50. We went as low as 65.50. So it's worth watching 63.50-65.50 if we move down again.



We could, of course just move back to the range and start trading between 75.25 and 94.50 as was the expectation yesterday. Technically speaking, now that we have moved down, we may have seen positions shaken out and therefore be looking for the low of that range as potential resistance. On the other hand, if we shake the news off, we could well just go back into the range and sit there till next week. Those scenarios don't take into account new news, so an ear to the news feed today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2094.50
Value 2041.25 -> 2086.25
S1 2037.50, R1 - 2117.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2078.25 -> 2093
Value 2084.50 -> 2092.50
Globex 2065.50 -> 2087.25

Settlement - 2084.25

Today only - 2075.25, 63.50-65.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #655 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


paps View Post
what i wouldnt give for a touch of the bottom part of that range Good to have you back. hope all fine at your end.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2094.50

I'll call my friend in Turkey - he can probably arrange it...

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #656 (permalink)
 paps 
SF Bay Area + CA/US
 
Experience: None
Platform: TS, TOS, Ninja(Analytics)
Trading: NQ CL, ES when volatile mrkts
 
paps's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,721 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 2,173 given, 1,710 received

Pete...will give anything to meet the numbers . lets go to turkey.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #657 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

25th November



Well, I guess you can't keep a good market down. Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We could, of course just move back to the range and start trading between 75.25 and 94.50 as was the expectation yesterday

So my presumption is that we are back in the range.



Not much to say really, this speaks for itself - a sideways range with a spike that occurred when traders got spooked on the Turkey/Russia news.

Tomorrow is a half day in the markets, it'll be very quiet and not worth trading. Going into today, first thing to look out for is a general lack of volume. This could be from the very start of the day or it could kick in at lunchtime. If there is lack of interest, it's probably worth having a day off. We do have unemployment numbers though and there is always the chance of the political situation giving us a boost.

It should be fairly clear by 10am if it's going to be dead or not.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2065.50 -> 2093
Value 2080.50 -> 2092
S1 2037.50, R1 - 2117.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2078.25 -> 2093
Value 2084.50 -> 2092.50
Globex 2065.50 -> 2087.25

Settlement - 2084.25

Today only - 2075.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #658 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

30th November



There's no obvious indication as to whether we'll break upside and hit the highs or if we are done to the upside. As it's not clear, I expect others to be thinking it's unclear to. So my first thoughts about the week ahead is that it's going to be indecisive and low volume until it's clear which way we are headed.

Of course, it's also December and volume will taper off towards the end of the month but we can still expect decent participation once this area is resolved.



We can see one large distribution from last week and it's worth watching the extremes (the weekly value area). On low volume I will be looking for this to hold. If we poke through with no real increase in participation, I'll consider it a headfake. If we see stops triggering, then I expect it to run.



This doesn't tell us much - the past few days were holiday, so I'm not paying any attention to "yesterdays" numbers or the weekly S1, R1.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.50 -> 2098.25
Value 2082.75 -> 2092.50
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range holiday
Value holiday
Globex 2083.25 -> 2092

Settlement - holiday

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #659 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

1st December



Overall, still indecisive. Which means everyone is waiting to see which way everyone is going to play it.... So no long term bias.

Volume not too bad - a shade under 1.4M yesterday.




We probed down through the bulk of trading from last week and couldn't hold below it - so the "fade the range" is still on the table.



Again, the only bias you can draw from this is to not have a bias. So it's a day where it is best to presume chop and try to take something early on in the session. As December progresses, this will become more important. Still, we do have potential for a break and a decent run when it happens. I have no way of telling which way the break will be or when it will occur, so I'll just aim to take some early trades as the longer we go into the day, the more chance it'll chop around.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.50 -> 2098.25
Value 2082.75 -> 2092.50
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2092 / 2095
Value 2081.25 -> 2087.25
Globex 2082.50 -> 2092.75

Settlement - 2079.75

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #660 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

2nd December

Yesterday we said "Again, the only bias you can draw from this is to not have a bias. So it's a day where it is best to presume chop and try to take something early on in the session"

It's worth taking a look at yesterday:



As you can see - 2 good swings off the open and then tough trading thereafter until we set up at the end of the day. It's worth keeping this in mind when it looks like the day is setting up slowly.



As we can see, we've broken upside. Today, we will see if that means we will march up to the highs or if the pop up was just down to stops triggering when we moved out of that range we'd been in. Certainly, the volume for yesterday was nothing special, so it's not as if there was massive participation on the break.



For upside - we have both last weeks high to look at as well as the top of the main distribution of trading from last week (2092.50). Either of these holding on a test should bring in buy side participation.



Not really much more from the split profile. Other that it also highlights the top of the range.

As we go into today, we are in a situation where the Globex session is long. If that remains the case, there is a good chance of an initial drive down off the open. That could just be a 'rebalance' off the open, so don't let any initial drive down fake you into thinking we are done to the upside. I'll be cautious to the downside until we start eating into last weeks range.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2105
Value 2083.75 -> 2094.25
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range 2082.50 / 2084.25 -> 2101.50
Value 2088.25 -> 2095.25
Globex 2098 -> 2105

Settlement - 2100

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #661 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

3rd December



Yesterday we had a relatively big move down but looking left and the volume was decent. Still, looking left, we are still very much in the range.

So was yesterdays push down a sign of bullish sentiment or just a knee jerk reaction? If negative sentiment, we should see continued push down with above average volume. Yesterday started out with weak volume but today should not if we are seeing real bullishness.



We are now both in the middle of this weeks and last weeks value areas. Very neutral.



But we have become more neutral because of overnight trading.

So theme for the day is to look out for volume on the downside and if not, expect neutral trading. Which means once again, trying to get in on the early swings.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2075-> 2105
Value 2081.25 -> 2094.75
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range 2075 -> 2103.35 / 2105
Value 2081.50 -> 2103
Globex 2077.75 -> 2090.25

Settlement - 2081.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #662 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

4th December, 2015

Yesterday we had "So was yesterdays push down a sign of bullish sentiment or just a knee jerk reaction? If negative sentiment, we should see continued push down with above average volume."

And here's the relative volume:



From the open we were about 100k contracts ahead of the norm and it just kept rising from there ending up just over a million contracts above average.

So sentiment in the short term is bearish and participation is high.



We have probed through a technical level and are now back above it but my opinion is that this is not a technical market right now.



I think there's not much point trying to draw too much conclusion. We have had a push down and we have been in a bit of a "Teflon" market which simply doesn't want to stay down. So an eye on volume still but also the fact that we could as easily snap back as push down. I am biased to the downside but I'm not married to is because of these snaps back.

So into today, if volume is high into the open, then there's no need to stalk an early trade. I'll be watching to see what happens and then jumping on board when that's clear. I'll feel much better about short trades once we clear yesterdays low, until then I'll be a bit wary of the market snapping back up.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2075-> 2040
Value - irrelevant @ this point
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range 2040 -> 2084.50 / 2095.25
Value 2051.25-> 2084.25
Globex 2051.50 -> 2062.75

Settlement - 2051.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #663 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

7th December



On Friday we had " We have had a push down and we have been in a bit of a "Teflon" market which simply doesn't want to stay down"

And the teflon market strikes again!

So now we are back in the zone we chopped around in before, an area with a relative lack of interest. So we could end up chopping around here again or we could see more volatility. So far, volume is slightly above average (5am EST).



We can see a larger distribution from around 2080-2095, so that's a candidate for the area we may chop around today. Certainly it's worth looking for initial support/resistance around there.



On the split profile, we do have a late point at 2078.25 which is close to 2080 above to make that a zone worth watching into today.

Other than that, it's really just an eye on the volatility today and react accordingly.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2040-> 2105
Value - 2065.25 -> 2099.75
S1 - 2051.25, R1 - 2114.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2046.75 / 2052 -> 2093
Value 2069.75 -> 2092.75
Globex 2083.50 -> 2095.50

Today only 2078.25-2080, 2095

Settlement - 2088.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #664 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

8th December

Volume is tailing off and yesterday was slightly less volatile.



It's hard for me to have a specific bias, although I think there's more potential to a downside break than any upside break. We could try for the all time highs before the end of the year but as yet, there's been no willing to trade through 2117 this half of the year.

If we can get a push down through yesterdays low, then I think we have potential. Otherwise, I suspect we will chop around.



We can see a lot of trading yesterday between 65.50 and 74.50, which is around where the value area is. If we do pop up in the remainder of the overnight session, I'll be watching these prices to see if we hold.

Other than that, I'm going in without much bias but with the premise that a downside break should bring in decent amount of selling and that upside will probably be lackluster.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2040-> 2105
Value - 2065.25 -> 2099.75
S1 - 2051.25, R1 - 2114.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2064.25 -> 2085.50 / 2095.50
Value 2067.25 -> 2074.75
Globex 2067.75 -> 2082

Today only 2078.25-2080, 2095

Settlement - 2081

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #665 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

9th December

Yesterday we had "Other than that, I'm going in without much bias but with the premise that a downside break should bring in decent amount of selling and that upside will probably be lackluster. "



The prior low was 64.25 and we broke down in the overnight session and into the day session we managed a meager push down of about 14 points. Then we took all that back and moved sideways for the rest of the session.



As we keep saying - this area has seen a lot of chop this year and it's hard to see what will give us the sort of shift in sentiment to make a run at the highs. On the other hand with a possible rate hike this month (good idea to hike rates when liquidity is traditionally low), there's plenty of reason to favor the downside. So I still think upside is chop and downside has most potential.

It will be interesting to see what happens if we can break through last weeks low from here, we have a level at 46.75 but I think more people will have an eye on last Thursdays low. I



Not too much to say from the weekly profile at this point although it's worth keeping an eye open at 75 are for resistance.



Volume wasn't too bad yesterday, although the afternoon volume was on the low side. So today I'll be trying to take advantage of any early volatility and expecting it to chop mid to late morning unless we can have a downside break of 2040.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2050.25 -> 2095.50
Value - 2054.75 -> 2075.75
S1 - 2051.25, R1 - 2114.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2050.25 / 2055.25 -> 2082
Value 2067.25 -> 2074.75
Globex 2052.25 -> 2069.50

Today only 2040,

Settlement - 2058.75

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #666 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

10th & 11th December

The index futures are rolling over, so that's my cue to take a couple of days off. Probably a good thing given the way this market is swinging about.

Not that it isn't tradeable - just that there's not a lot of point prepping for it - more like "hang on for dear life".

The rollover itself has changed character over the past 18 months and we can get some decent moves on these days. The roll was often done fairly quickly with the majority of volume in the new contract by the end of Thursday AM but nowadays, it seems to take days before the volume moves to the new month.

Still, it's a good excuse to have a couple of days off.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #667 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

14th December



New levels have been posted below. Far fewer levels appear than usual as we keep running all over them which makes them not really relevant any more.

Looking left we are back at an area that has provided support many times this year. The level is 2006 but last test here got as low as 1990.75. I'd expect sellers to come in volume if we break that. We have FOMC on Wednesday and on the one hand there have been hints at a hike this month, on the other hand the FED have been pretty weak in terms of being sensitive to moves down in the market, also Yellen is a big believed in negative interest rates and you have to wonder if she doesn't want to give her theories a real world try.



Above us, it's worth keeping an eye on 2032.25, that's the low of the break down we had the week before last. We may get back up to that point and find out we have resistance there. Just above that is the main distribution of volume from last week.



Overnight we have decent volume but have traded within Fridays day session range. Considering the FOMC on Wednesday, we may well just rotate in this area until Wednesday afternoon.

Saying that, this has been a volatile market for a December, so I'll be watching the downside for a break and 32.25 to the upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2087.75
Value - 2034.50 -> 2068
S1 - 1973.75, R1 - 2053

Daily Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2025.50 / 2047.75
Value 2005.25 -> 2019.75
Globex 1999.50 -> 2019.50

Today only 2032.25, 1990.75

Settlement - 2009.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #668 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

15th December

All bets are off!



We got hit with some major volatility yesterday with a 19.5 point move up in 2 minutes (but only 53k contracts traded) and then a 1 minute 16 point drop, again with just 26k contracts traded. Big swings with relatively low volume means that the liquidity disappeared. Just after that, a fellow trader sent me a link to this article....

The Market Has Just Gone Nuts | Zero Hedge

The upshot being that there's US$1.1 trillion in S&P500 options expiring Friday with a lot of them being puts just below where the market is.

Now - a couple of things to consider there.

1 - People tend to overblow the numbers when they talk about derivatives. The nominal value of a single emini S&P500 contract is a little over $100k but obviously when you trade a contract, you are not risking $100. So when people report numbers, they tend to do so in the most newsworthy manner. So there is a tendency to pump up the numbers to the highest one that fits.

2 - Regardless of the fact the market is overweight puts, there were buyers and sellers of those puts. So there's people on both sides of that trade, people that will benefit if it goes down, people that will benefit if it goes up.

3 - Many of the puts will not have been speculative trades but hedges, so some of the holders wont care what the market does.

But still - that's a lot of money on the line and we can't expect either side to just sit by the sidelines and wait it out.

Tennis is not considered a dangerous sport, but it becomes dangerous when playing in a court full of elephants. In my opinion, that's what we have today. We have a potential FED rate hike (or not) and we have a lot of people that stand to benefit and lose based on where price ends up on Friday. So it could get interesting.

My own method of looking at the market is to look for areas I think speculators might jump on board and then joining when they do. I don't think this is that type of market. That presumes that speculators are the main players and that liquidity providers are doing their job in a fairly safe environment.

I think the market conditions - will cause liquidity providers to be extra cautious (i.e. missing) and for speculators like myself to be less significant. There is the potential for the markets to get pushed around.

In short, it's more dangerous to trade right now and in addition, my own method of analyzing the market is based on a set of presumptions that cannot be relied on from here till Friday.

That doesn't mean you can't trade it. I will watch it and see and possibly try to scale into a trade if the market puts in a run. If liquidity disappears, I won't even try that.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 14 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #669 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Investor RT & Ninja
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 1,106 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,132 given, 1,653 received

Very insightful analysis and interpretation. It merits more than clicking the thanks button. I appreciate your effort to improve our understanding of market's behaviour.

Sent from my Lenovo K50a40 using Tapatalk

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Narcissus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #670 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

17th December

FOMC is done & it's good to see the FED finally had the 'stones' to raise rates. The financial press was full of doom & gloom over their predictions that this raise would signal the start of a bear market. What we saw after the FED announcement was most likely NOT large institutions coming in reacting to the news. We can figure that most were positioned ahead of it.



So now we look set to test the highs or at least the last attempt at the highs. We still have $1.1 trillion of S&P options to expire by the end of the week, so it could still be very volatile.



Going into today, the question from the start will be whether we can keep the post-FOMC gains. So I'm looking for momentum and to trade a continuation. To the upside, I'll then be looking at 2097.25 (the last failed attempt at the highs) and 2109.25. A reversal off either should bring in sellers.

To the downside, I'd expect a move down to 2006 initially but if we get a really sharp move down today, then I think we could easily go past that. If the market looks weak, people could well panic and get out - especially as we are sitting close to all time highs.

Should be interesting.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1983.25 -> 2071.50
Value - 2010.50 -> 2071.50
S1 - 1973.75, R1 - 2053

Daily Numbers
Range 2031 -> 2068.75
Value 2037.25 -> 2055.25
Globex 2056 -> 2071.50

Today only 2097.25

Settlement - 2072

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #671 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

22nd December

Time to take a break from trading.

See you all in the New Year.

Merry Christmas to those that celebrate it and for those that don't (such as in the Buddhist country I live in) - can you please switch off the Christmas music in the shopping malls before April this year....

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #672 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

11th January

Back to it. I usually leave out the first working week in January as it's so slow. Not that it was, I did look at the markets last week intermittently and there was a lot of volume there.



The market has taken a dive but nothing we didn't see in August, where we got to 1814. My next downside target is 1843. I'm still watching the 1929.50 area - right now we are testing it from beneath, so if that holds, another good push down is likely. The market is quite volatile with VIX up at 27, which is relatively high, so don't expect anything to hold to the tick and do expect a relatively illiquid market.



The weekly profile shows us a double-distribution last week with 1970 the LVN between them - so I'll be watching that area for rejection.



We can see that last week, the 1929.50 area held but that broke on Friday day session. Hence the reason to look for a test there.

Overall market is moving down, so I'll be looking today for signs of downside volume to jump on board, with care to not let the volatility take me out. I'll be suspicious of any upside moves unless we see volume above 1929.50.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1910 -> 2043.50
Value - 1951.50 -> 2043.50
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1910 -> 1953.25 / 1974.75
Value 1926.25 -> 1944.25
Globex 1893.50 -> 1928.50

Today only 1970

Settlement - 1911.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #673 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

12th January



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
I'm still watching the 1929.50 area - right now we are testing it from beneath, so if that holds, another good push down is likely.

And we can see that whilst we didn't get that much of a push down, the 29 area still seems to be holding. So I'm looking for shorts below and longs above.



We can see that the lower distribution from last week tapers off around 1930 too. So if we do get into that area, I expect to get to 1960. We have that LVN at 1970, which is an area to keep an eye on.



We can see the significance of the 1929 area here. I think we have to be on the lookout of the market staying in Mondays range for a few days. Other than that, I'm short biased below 29 and long biased above. If we go to Mondays lows, I'll be looking for signs that we are holding with the prospect of a trip back to the low 1920s.

Weekly Numbers

Range 1910 -> 2043.50
Value - 1951.50 -> 2043.50
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1892.50 -> 1929
Value 1903-> 1920
Globex 1899 -> 1924.50

Today only 1970

Settlement - 1914.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #674 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

13th January



Back above 1929, so I'm going into today with a long bias.



Looking at 1970 (the LVN between the 2 distributions from last week) as a target. At that point, I'll be waiting to see how that area plays out before engaging again.



We do seem to be stuck in a range in the overnight session. We can see a pop up and then a large distribution from 36-45. If that breaks to the downside, we will see stops hit. If that happens, it may be the end of the long trade.

Still - that area gives us a nice line in the sand, so whilst I am overall long biased above 29. If the 36-45 area looks like breaking, I'll try to join that move.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1892.50 -> 1946.50
Value - 1902 -> 1928.50
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1899 / 1905.75 -> 1940.25
Value 1912 -> 1929
Globex 1922 -> 1924.50

Today only 1970

Settlement - 1925

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #675 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

14th January



A big down day yesterday, so as always - look out for a snap back up early on. Below us the next level we have our eye on is 1843, but it's worth keeping an eye on 1853.25 which is the August low.



We are below last weeks range and the lower distribution, if we do move up eyes are still in the 1929 level as potential resistance.



A little closer to home is the 1892.50-1896.25 area, that's from Mondays low to the single print on the way down yesterday.

Most of yesterday afternoon and this AM, we have rotated above the lows made earlier on. I think we'll see good participation if we break those lows. I'll be looking to jump on board that. For upside, if there is a snap back up, I think it's worth scaling into a long and not going in full size because this market does seem weak, it is very volatile and it'll be easy to get caught offside in a long trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1874.50 -> 1946.50
Value - 1899.50 -> 1937
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1878 -> 1943.25 / 1946.50
Value 1879.50 -> 1925
Globex 1974.50 -> 1897.75

Today only 1970, 1853.25, 1892.50-1896.25

Settlement - 1881.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #676 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

15th January



This is a very indecisive market, a lot of overlap this week. It's still a big range, so there's still opportunity but it's not very appealing to trade in the middle of the range



Above us we have the weekly value high and the weekly high which is just below a lesser volume area at 45, so a failure at either gives us a good chance of follow through. I'd personally wait for the failure to be confirmed with volume coming in before entering as we have plenty of potential. It's volatile, so it's high risk to guess a top.



We can see how messy the week has been, we are in an overall down trend and last time we did this we got down to 53. I see no reason to be biased either way going into today and I don't have any strong conviction in any level.

So into today, the weeks extremes look the best places to get a reaction. Lesser candidates are yesterdays high/low/value area. Other than that, it's a matter of trying to get on the right side of any momentum that develops, with not too much worry (in my opinion) of where it's ultimately heading or why. We have indecision - but we have a good range, so I'm on "don't think too much" mode.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1871 -> 1944
Value - 1895.50 -> 1930
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1871 -> 1927.50
Value 1874.75 -> 1923.75
Globex 1883 -> 1921

Today only 1945

Settlement - 1914.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #677 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

18th January



We've made it as far down as the September lows, so there's good reason to expect upside follow through this AM. I'm still watching 29 above but based just on the fact we have tested 53, I'm prepared to jump on any upside momentum.



We have a fairly well distributed profile from last week, so I will be paying attention to the Value Low from there as a hurdle on the way up.



I'll also be looking at 1890 an 1895.50 - we can see we took a while to break through 95.50 on Friday and as such, I also think it is a potential resistance today.

So going in to today - looking for a move up with 1890, 95.50 & last weeks VAL as potential stopping points. If any of those hold, I'll then be looking to see how high the volume is as we trade away (as we should at least expect a bounce at these areas) and if high, I'll be going short. Upside target is 29.

If we move down off the open, then I'm cautious at 53.25 and last weeks low. If we can get through 43, then I think we should be able to get to 14 fairly easily and if that breaks, I suspect we could see a real sell off.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1861.50 -> 1944
Value - 1891.50 -> 1931
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 1925.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1871 -> 1927.50
Value 1874.75 -> 1923.75
Globex 1883 -> 1921

Today only 1853.25

Settlement - 1875, 1890, 1895.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #678 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

19th January



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We've made it as far down as the September lows, so there's good reason to expect upside follow through this AM. I'm still watching 29 above but based just on the fact we have tested 53, I'm prepared to jump on any upside momentum.

And so far that September low (1853) has held and we have had some follow through - but not a real US session today as yesterday was MLK day. So today once more looking for that upside follow through. I still have an eye on 1929.


Quoting 

As we are now working through last weeks value area, I'll be watching the top of it (1931) to see if we run out of steam and reverse around there.



In terms of daily levels - I'm leaving Friday on as "yesterdays levels" and putting Sunday evening to now as one big Globex session. US hasn't really traded in any meaningful way, so I consider it all 'overnight'. I'll be watching Fridays numbers as well as the range put in since Sunday.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1861.50 -> 1944
Value - 1891.50 -> 1931
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 1925.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1871 -> 1927.50
Value 1874.75 -> 1923.75
Globex 1859.75 -> 1906.50

Today only 1853.25

Settlement - 1875

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #679 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

20th January



There goes another level. The September low of 1853 has broken overnight as has the August low of 1843. As we go into today, we need to see if we snap back up with the stock market opens. The next levels are 1813 and then 1773.75. We haven't seen a panic sell off yet but it can't be far away.



We are below last weeks profile, so keep an eye as we move back up as it may act as resistance.



As we can see, this is just overnight action breaking these levels. It remains to be seen if they can hold it down into the open, so the plan for today is simply to watch to see what happens in that respect and jump on any resulting momentum.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1829.25-> 1907.50
Value - 1864 -> 1893.50
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 1925.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1856.25 -> 1895.50 / 1907.50
Value 1871.25 -> 1891.25
Globex 1829.25 -> 1878.75

Today only 1853.25, 1861.50

Settlement - 1873

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #680 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

21st January



Levels dropping like flies! 1814 has gone but we bounced back up. The next level I have is 1773.75.



The market is in panic mode. I've never found any benefit in analyzing the market when it's like this. My prep is more for the 'normal state of affairs' - which this isn't.

This market is illiquid (higher stops) but it's running a long way. So my only plan is try to get on the side of momentum and for me that still means waiting for a pullback or some sort of backstop. Bottom line is if it's powering down and you get in, even a moderate pullback of 10-15 ticks will stop you out. Typically, it'll then go the way you wanted it to.

So I'd rather wait for it to come back 10-15 ticks to get in

So it's running - you certainly CAN just jump on board - but this isn't a grind up with no pullbacks - it's swinging wildly, so I think it's better to look to get a good price.

For me - the next part is to scale into a position. Purely that's down to volatility. I would not do that under normal conditions.

Other than that - I don't really care about the levels. This is not a normal market. So I don't expect a reaction in the normal places. People are panicking, traders are getting stopped out all over the place. The volatility effectively brings in more volatility.

Circuit breakers are set at 7%, you really don't want to be in the market in a winning or a losing trade when that happens. So if we get to the point where we've moved 100 points, that would put me sitting on the benches as it'll be close to the breaker point.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 10 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #681 (permalink)
 RichardHK 
Hong Kong
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, TWS
Broker: IB/Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 236 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 132 given, 331 received

>>...Circuit breakers are set at 7%, you really don't want to be in the market in a winning or a losing trade when that happens. So if we get to the point where we've moved 100 points, that would put me sitting on the benches as it'll be close to the breaker point.<<

Good point Pete,

Do you know where they measure the 7% from? Is it the range for day? Or 7% deviation in one direction from RTH or ETH open?

Richard

Richard
Hong Kong
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #682 (permalink)
 paps 
SF Bay Area + CA/US
 
Experience: None
Platform: TS, TOS, Ninja(Analytics)
Trading: NQ CL, ES when volatile mrkts
 
paps's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,721 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 2,173 given, 1,710 received

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/faq-eq-hours-and-limits.pdf

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to paps for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #683 (permalink)
 RichardHK 
Hong Kong
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, TWS
Broker: IB/Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 236 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 132 given, 331 received

Thanks Paps!
Good info and good to hear from you.
Wishing you and all great trading.

Richard
Hong Kong
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to RichardHK for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #684 (permalink)
 Psy24X 
Milano, Italy, EU
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja + Jigsaw
Trading: ES
 
Psy24X's Avatar
 
Posts: 36 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 114 given, 25 received


RichardHK View Post
>>...Circuit breakers are set at 7%, you really don't want to be in the market in a winning or a losing trade when that happens. So if we get to the point where we've moved 100 points, that would put me sitting on the benches as it'll be close to the breaker point.<<

Good point Pete,

Do you know where they measure the 7% from? Is it the range for day? Or 7% deviation in one direction from RTH or ETH open?

Richard

This Cme page daily updates the limit price of each equity contract:

Price Limit Guide

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Psy24X for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #685 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

22nd January



Yesterday was a somewhat less wild day but still a 43 point range in the day session.



I'm still sticking with the opinion that this is not normal market conditions and whilst I don't want to repeat everything I said from yesterdays prep, I'm just going with momentum until such a point as the market settles down again.

Whilst this market is putting in great runs, it does require a fair amount of focus to keep engaged and on the look our for a sudden reversal.

Volatility wise, I see any downward move through 1800 as potentially triggering another sell off. It's a little harder to gauge the upside. At some point, we could see a huge move up if overall sentiment is on the side of the sell off being overdone. It is not for me to say when sentiment will change but the amount of participation should help us.

Again, I am not really looking at recent levels to play off as I think it's not that sort of market.

We've gone from a riverboat tour to white water rafting.

At least it's not dull.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #686 (permalink)
 RichardHK 
Hong Kong
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, TWS
Broker: IB/Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 236 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 132 given, 331 received


Psy24X View Post
This Cme page daily updates the limit price of each equity contract:

Price Limit Guide

An excellent resource. Have my question answered very well indeed! Many thanks.

Richard
Hong Kong
Reply With Quote