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DTs Pre Market Prep
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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #61 (permalink)
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ghl123 View Post
I'm not sure if you saw my question or not but, I will repeat it again.

Some numbers come off weekly/daily market profile (I use fin-alg)
Some numbers like weekly S1 & R1 come from mypivots.com
Prior days highs/lows/globex come off intraday charts.

Then other levels are just prior swing highs/lows that I think are significant.

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  #62 (permalink)
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5th August, 2013

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We finally broke 1700. It is August and that is traditionally a slow month but there is the prospect of more vertical development now that we have broken that 'psychological' level.

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We have a new (pink) line today at 1695.75, we have been watching this (well 1695.50) over the past week because it was the upper boundary of our range. We have broken through that and it's now providing support. Lots of people will be watching that level and I think the bulls will be happy if we test that and it holds.

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The weekly profile shows that value is below the 1695.50 level, so if we do head down, then the top of last weeks value area 1690.25 is also a line in the sand for the bulls.

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The daily profile doesn't tell us much more, Fridays low was the 1695.75 level we already discussed.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1676.50 -> 1705.00
Value 1679.25 -> 1690.25
S1, 1685.25, R1 - 1713.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1695.75 -> 1705.00
Value 1698 -> 1702.50
Globex 1701.25 -> 1704.75
Other 1666.50, 1670.50, 1689, 1695.75


So a 'technical' day where lots of people will be watching to see if the highs hold. Non Manufacturing PMI at 10:00am EST might see us go nowhere for the first 30 minutes in anticipation of that release.

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  #63 (permalink)
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6th August

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Whilst we didn't make any headway upwards yesterday, our lower level at 1695.75 has held so far. So the situation effectively remains the same as yesterday. Of course, if this continues sideways for another couple of days, the chance of more vertical development decreases in my opinion. Volume was 856k yesterday and so what we are seeign up here isn't really 'price acceptance' as it is 'summertime indifference'.

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The profile doesn't reveal much, yesterdays high was the same as Fridays high and we have still only been as low as 1697.50, not yet testing Fridays low of 1695.75 which is still key in my opinion.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1676.50 -> 1705.00
Value 1679.25 -> 1690.25
S1, 1685.25, R1 - 1713.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1698.75 -> 1705.00
Value 1700.75 -> 1703.25
Globex 1697.50-> 1703.50
Other 1666.50, 1670.50, 1689, 1695.75

I'll be expecting a range today which means watching the volume profile for signs of building value and then scalping from the outside back in. Depending on the size of the range, targets will be either all out at the opposite side or scale some before the POC (highest volume price).

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Last edited by DionysusToast; August 6th, 2013 at 06:56 AM.
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  #64 (permalink)
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Very simple and useful analysis every day Peter! Thanks for your efforts

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  #65 (permalink)
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Levels

Do you weight all these levels the same? if not what is more important to you?


DionysusToast View Post
5th August, 2013

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We finally broke 1700. It is August and that is traditionally a slow month but there is the prospect of more vertical development now that we have broken that 'psychological' level.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


We have a new (pink) line today at 1695.75, we have been watching this (well 1695.50) over the past week because it was the upper boundary of our range. We have broken through that and it's now providing support. Lots of people will be watching that level and I think the bulls will be happy if we test that and it holds.

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The weekly profile shows that value is below the 1695.50 level, so if we do head down, then the top of last weeks value area 1690.25 is also a line in the sand for the bulls.

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The daily profile doesn't tell us much more, Fridays low was the 1695.75 level we already discussed.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1676.50 -> 1705.00
Value 1679.25 -> 1690.25
S1, 1685.25, R1 - 1713.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1695.75 -> 1705.00
Value 1698 -> 1702.50
Globex 1701.25 -> 1704.75
Other 1666.50, 1670.50, 1689, 1695.75


So a 'technical' day where lots of people will be watching to see if the highs hold. Non Manufacturing PMI at 10:00am EST might see us go nowhere for the first 30 minutes in anticipation of that release.


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  #66 (permalink)
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meyer99 View Post
Do you weight all these levels the same? if not what is more important to you?

Good question and one I never formally put much thought into putting them in order. I tend to wait to see what happens at the level, rather than trading right into it, so priority doesn't matter that much.

I like the value and range levels because they hold a lot and also tend to produce decent moves because traders read a lot into things like "rejecting yesterdays range".

On the other hand, the general "lines in the sand" I list at the end are one's that are longer lasting and seem to be watched by more traders. They can be tricky though...

Take the 1695.75 from today and yesterdays prep - the "resistance becomes support" level we made after finally breaking 1695.50 to make our new all time high. There were some real fun & games there today.

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We came down & traded 7844 on the bid at 1695.75. That's the highest volume at a known level. That's absorption. There is absolutely nothing at all wrong with leaning on 1695.75 and taking a long there.

We then went up 6 ticks before coming off and seeing us trade a lot of volume at 1694.25 & 1694.50. At that point we moved sideways between those high volume areas before finally the longs gave up.

And that's the issue with levels to an extent. We had a false reversal from the level, longs tried to hold it, there was a 15 minute 'tug of war' whilst they battled it out and the longs lost out.

Now - you could say that 1695.75 was a very good level. It was obviously being watched by a lot of people - but it was a tricky place to get into a position. Longs and shorts lost money there.

So I guess it depends on how you rate levels. The upside of having an area a lot of people are looking at is that it's unlikely to sail right through it without giving you time to think. The downside is that there's a higher probability of gameplay.

So I guess I'm back to not really being able to rate them as such. For sure, the levels are support or resistance levels. They are just levels. I don't give up on a level I came to from above just because we went through it. I do give up on a level if it gets walked over a few times or fails to even pause when it passes thru first time.

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  #67 (permalink)
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7th August

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Yesterday was a pleasant surprise and a break from the monotony we saw mid-June/early-August. Volume was 1.2M compared to 856k on Monday. Volume and range in this mornings Globex session has also been reasonable, so let's hope that carries into the pit session.

We had a decisive break through our 1695.75 level yesterday (see previous post for details) and now we are back to the 1685.75 level.

The scenarios that I see playing out are a developing range with a low of 1670.50/1666.50 or we turn back up off the open back towards 1705 from here.

As before, below 1666.50, we have now much supporting us till we get to 1650.

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Value for the week so far is above us with a low of 1692.75, so look for the bears to keep us below that level.

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We look set to open below yesterdays low and value too (1688.75/1691) and I'd see a failur to get through 1691 to be very good for the downside.

It's a fairly slow news day but we do have some key levels to play off, so hopefully we can get some decent volatility again today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1685.25 -> 1705.00
Value 1692.75 -> 1704.25
S1, 1685.25, R1 - 1713.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1688.75 -> 1700.50 (pit)/1703.50(globex)
Value 1691 -> 1695
Globex 1685.25 -> 1694
Other 1666.50, 1670.50, 1689, 1695.25 -> 1695.75, 1705

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  #68 (permalink)
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Peter - thanks for posting these market updates. I'm a crude trader but I find your analysis educational. I also just appreciate that you've been so consistent and relevant.

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  #69 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Peter - thanks for posting these market updates. I'm a crude trader but I find your analysis educational. I also just appreciate that you've been so consistent and relevant.

Thank you for taking time to comment.

Putting this here helps me at least as much as it helps anyone reading it. Mostly it keeps me consistent in my approach.

It has to be said too - the forum format is way better than keeping it in a word document, it's way better to have it here to go back over than on my PC. Mike even does a free backup for me too and I can access it from anywhere!

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  #70 (permalink)
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This is an early one today. I'm not trading today as I'm off to Thailand Camp, Phuket » Weight Loss, Detox, Yoga & Fitness Camp tomorrow to do an 8 day fast and detox. It's mothers day in Thailand this Sunday and tonight the wife wants to be pampered.

This prep is quite early, so please take a look at the Globex to update before the open.

8th August

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1.1M contracts yesterday and a bounce around Wednesdays low which was 1680.25. We got as low as 1680.50. That wasn't a level I was really interested in but I think it's worth making a note of now. Now we are heading back up to 1695.75 (the pink line) again and right now it's 5.5 hours before the Pit open and we may get up there before then.

Obviously the bulls want it back up above that lines and the bears want to stay below it.

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The weekly range is now just shy of 25 points which is good for August, the value low is 1689.75 and right now we are back within that. The value low moved down yesterday.

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Thus far in the Globex session, we have had a nice push up and so the first order of the day will be to see if we test yesterdays range/value. Bulls will want to see these prices rejected to the upside.

We do have unemployment claims at 8:30am which may change the picture.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1680.50 -> 1705.00
Value 1689.75 -> 1704.75
S1, 1685.25, R1 - 1713.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1680.50 -> 1689.50 (pit)/1794(globex)
Value 1684 -> 1689.50
Globex 1687.75-> 1694.50
Other 1666.50, 1670.50, 1685.75, 1689, 1695.25 -> 1695.75, 1705

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