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DTs Pre Market Prep

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22nd December

Time to take a break from trading.

See you all in the New Year.

Merry Christmas to those that celebrate it and for those that don't (such as in the Buddhist country I live in) - can you please switch off the Christmas music in the shopping malls before April this year....

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11th January

Back to it. I usually leave out the first working week in January as it's so slow. Not that it was, I did look at the markets last week intermittently and there was a lot of volume there.



The market has taken a dive but nothing we didn't see in August, where we got to 1814. My next downside target is 1843. I'm still watching the 1929.50 area - right now we are testing it from beneath, so if that holds, another good push down is likely. The market is quite volatile with VIX up at 27, which is relatively high, so don't expect anything to hold to the tick and do expect a relatively illiquid market.



The weekly profile shows us a double-distribution last week with 1970 the LVN between them - so I'll be watching that area for rejection.



We can see that last week, the 1929.50 area held but that broke on Friday day session. Hence the reason to look for a test there.

Overall market is moving down, so I'll be looking today for signs of downside volume to jump on board, with care to not let the volatility take me out. I'll be suspicious of any upside moves unless we see volume above 1929.50.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1910 -> 2043.50
Value - 1951.50 -> 2043.50
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1910 -> 1953.25 / 1974.75
Value 1926.25 -> 1944.25
Globex 1893.50 -> 1928.50

Today only 1970

Settlement - 1911.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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12th January



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
I'm still watching the 1929.50 area - right now we are testing it from beneath, so if that holds, another good push down is likely.

And we can see that whilst we didn't get that much of a push down, the 29 area still seems to be holding. So I'm looking for shorts below and longs above.



We can see that the lower distribution from last week tapers off around 1930 too. So if we do get into that area, I expect to get to 1960. We have that LVN at 1970, which is an area to keep an eye on.



We can see the significance of the 1929 area here. I think we have to be on the lookout of the market staying in Mondays range for a few days. Other than that, I'm short biased below 29 and long biased above. If we go to Mondays lows, I'll be looking for signs that we are holding with the prospect of a trip back to the low 1920s.

Weekly Numbers

Range 1910 -> 2043.50
Value - 1951.50 -> 2043.50
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1892.50 -> 1929
Value 1903-> 1920
Globex 1899 -> 1924.50

Today only 1970

Settlement - 1914.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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13th January



Back above 1929, so I'm going into today with a long bias.



Looking at 1970 (the LVN between the 2 distributions from last week) as a target. At that point, I'll be waiting to see how that area plays out before engaging again.



We do seem to be stuck in a range in the overnight session. We can see a pop up and then a large distribution from 36-45. If that breaks to the downside, we will see stops hit. If that happens, it may be the end of the long trade.

Still - that area gives us a nice line in the sand, so whilst I am overall long biased above 29. If the 36-45 area looks like breaking, I'll try to join that move.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1892.50 -> 1946.50
Value - 1902 -> 1928.50
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1899 / 1905.75 -> 1940.25
Value 1912 -> 1929
Globex 1922 -> 1924.50

Today only 1970

Settlement - 1925

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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14th January



A big down day yesterday, so as always - look out for a snap back up early on. Below us the next level we have our eye on is 1843, but it's worth keeping an eye on 1853.25 which is the August low.



We are below last weeks range and the lower distribution, if we do move up eyes are still in the 1929 level as potential resistance.



A little closer to home is the 1892.50-1896.25 area, that's from Mondays low to the single print on the way down yesterday.

Most of yesterday afternoon and this AM, we have rotated above the lows made earlier on. I think we'll see good participation if we break those lows. I'll be looking to jump on board that. For upside, if there is a snap back up, I think it's worth scaling into a long and not going in full size because this market does seem weak, it is very volatile and it'll be easy to get caught offside in a long trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1874.50 -> 1946.50
Value - 1899.50 -> 1937
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1878 -> 1943.25 / 1946.50
Value 1879.50 -> 1925
Globex 1974.50 -> 1897.75

Today only 1970, 1853.25, 1892.50-1896.25

Settlement - 1881.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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15th January



This is a very indecisive market, a lot of overlap this week. It's still a big range, so there's still opportunity but it's not very appealing to trade in the middle of the range



Above us we have the weekly value high and the weekly high which is just below a lesser volume area at 45, so a failure at either gives us a good chance of follow through. I'd personally wait for the failure to be confirmed with volume coming in before entering as we have plenty of potential. It's volatile, so it's high risk to guess a top.



We can see how messy the week has been, we are in an overall down trend and last time we did this we got down to 53. I see no reason to be biased either way going into today and I don't have any strong conviction in any level.

So into today, the weeks extremes look the best places to get a reaction. Lesser candidates are yesterdays high/low/value area. Other than that, it's a matter of trying to get on the right side of any momentum that develops, with not too much worry (in my opinion) of where it's ultimately heading or why. We have indecision - but we have a good range, so I'm on "don't think too much" mode.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1871 -> 1944
Value - 1895.50 -> 1930
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 2000

Daily Numbers
Range 1871 -> 1927.50
Value 1874.75 -> 1923.75
Globex 1883 -> 1921

Today only 1945

Settlement - 1914.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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18th January



We've made it as far down as the September lows, so there's good reason to expect upside follow through this AM. I'm still watching 29 above but based just on the fact we have tested 53, I'm prepared to jump on any upside momentum.



We have a fairly well distributed profile from last week, so I will be paying attention to the Value Low from there as a hurdle on the way up.



I'll also be looking at 1890 an 1895.50 - we can see we took a while to break through 95.50 on Friday and as such, I also think it is a potential resistance today.

So going in to today - looking for a move up with 1890, 95.50 & last weeks VAL as potential stopping points. If any of those hold, I'll then be looking to see how high the volume is as we trade away (as we should at least expect a bounce at these areas) and if high, I'll be going short. Upside target is 29.

If we move down off the open, then I'm cautious at 53.25 and last weeks low. If we can get through 43, then I think we should be able to get to 14 fairly easily and if that breaks, I suspect we could see a real sell off.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1861.50 -> 1944
Value - 1891.50 -> 1931
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 1925.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1871 -> 1927.50
Value 1874.75 -> 1923.75
Globex 1883 -> 1921

Today only 1853.25

Settlement - 1875, 1890, 1895.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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19th January



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We've made it as far down as the September lows, so there's good reason to expect upside follow through this AM. I'm still watching 29 above but based just on the fact we have tested 53, I'm prepared to jump on any upside momentum.

And so far that September low (1853) has held and we have had some follow through - but not a real US session today as yesterday was MLK day. So today once more looking for that upside follow through. I still have an eye on 1929.



As we are now working through last weeks value area, I'll be watching the top of it (1931) to see if we run out of steam and reverse around there.



In terms of daily levels - I'm leaving Friday on as "yesterdays levels" and putting Sunday evening to now as one big Globex session. US hasn't really traded in any meaningful way, so I consider it all 'overnight'. I'll be watching Fridays numbers as well as the range put in since Sunday.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1861.50 -> 1944
Value - 1891.50 -> 1931
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 1925.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1871 -> 1927.50
Value 1874.75 -> 1923.75
Globex 1859.75 -> 1906.50

Today only 1853.25

Settlement - 1875

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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20th January



There goes another level. The September low of 1853 has broken overnight as has the August low of 1843. As we go into today, we need to see if we snap back up with the stock market opens. The next levels are 1813 and then 1773.75. We haven't seen a panic sell off yet but it can't be far away.



We are below last weeks profile, so keep an eye as we move back up as it may act as resistance.



As we can see, this is just overnight action breaking these levels. It remains to be seen if they can hold it down into the open, so the plan for today is simply to watch to see what happens in that respect and jump on any resulting momentum.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1829.25-> 1907.50
Value - 1864 -> 1893.50
S1 - 1866.5-, R1 - 1925.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1856.25 -> 1895.50 / 1907.50
Value 1871.25 -> 1891.25
Globex 1829.25 -> 1878.75

Today only 1853.25, 1861.50

Settlement - 1873

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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21st January



Levels dropping like flies! 1814 has gone but we bounced back up. The next level I have is 1773.75.



The market is in panic mode. I've never found any benefit in analyzing the market when it's like this. My prep is more for the 'normal state of affairs' - which this isn't.

This market is illiquid (higher stops) but it's running a long way. So my only plan is try to get on the side of momentum and for me that still means waiting for a pullback or some sort of backstop. Bottom line is if it's powering down and you get in, even a moderate pullback of 10-15 ticks will stop you out. Typically, it'll then go the way you wanted it to.

So I'd rather wait for it to come back 10-15 ticks to get in

So it's running - you certainly CAN just jump on board - but this isn't a grind up with no pullbacks - it's swinging wildly, so I think it's better to look to get a good price.

For me - the next part is to scale into a position. Purely that's down to volatility. I would not do that under normal conditions.

Other than that - I don't really care about the levels. This is not a normal market. So I don't expect a reaction in the normal places. People are panicking, traders are getting stopped out all over the place. The volatility effectively brings in more volatility.

Circuit breakers are set at 7%, you really don't want to be in the market in a winning or a losing trade when that happens. So if we get to the point where we've moved 100 points, that would put me sitting on the benches as it'll be close to the breaker point.

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