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DTs Pre Market Prep
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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #651 (permalink)
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20th November

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A little indecision here as we approach the highs, not much news today either so it could be a slow one. I have no real bias going into today. It's possible the "test of the highs" is done. After all - we've been up there so many times but there's just no will to move through. The FED isn't helping either with them dithering over interest rates.

We do have increased intraday risk with so many terrorist threats which will absolutely push us down if there is an event, so buyers beware.

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Yesterday we mentioned 2078 which is the top of the bulk of trading from last week. We've dipped int that but so far each dip has seen some buyers come in - but nothing significant.

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We had a really small range yesterday. For today, I have an eye on 2076 for a breakdown as there really wasn't that much trading between there and 63, so I do feel the downside has a lot more potential than the upside. After all if we break down, people will be seeing it as a failure to get to the highs again.

To the upside - looking for yesterdays extremes/value to act as support and if so, expecting moderate buying only.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2089.25
Value 2041.25 -> 2084.25
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2075.25 -> 2083.75 / 2089.25
Value 2077.50 -> 2081.50
Globex 2076 -> 2085.75

Settlement - 2079.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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  #652 (permalink)
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23rd November

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Still at the highs & Thanksgiving week with low volume a certainty for the end of the week. We've also got people with an eye on the Dec FOMC and the potential for an interest rake hike. We've been waiting for that one for a while though!

So I don't expect too much at all this week.

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We can see an area of higher volume above 2075, and not much trading below that, so I'll be watching to see how we do when we reach that area as we have potential for a decent move down if that breaks early in the week.

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What I think is likely for this week is that we'll be bracketed between the 2075.25 and the weekly high from last week. So in the middle of that area, I expect it to be tough trading and I'll be looking to join any bounces off the extremes. I don't expect much participation until that range breaks.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2094.50
Value 2041.25 -> 2086.25
S1 2037.50, R1 - 2117.50


Daily Numbers

Range 2076 / 2081.75 -> 2094.50
Value 2086 -> 2092
Globex 2083 -> 2092.50

Settlement - 2088.75

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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  #653 (permalink)
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what i wouldnt give for a touch of the bottom part of that range Good to have you back. hope all fine at your end.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2094.50

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  #654 (permalink)
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24th November

Interesting afternoon - a drunk motorbike rider hit our car at noon. He said to my wife who was driving "It's your fault, you aren't supposed to park there" to which my wife had to point out she was driving not parked when he ht the car. Then she mentioned the fact he was quite clearly drunk to which he responded "but I get drunk and ride my bike this way every day and I didn't have an accident before"....

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Anyway - seems like we started the week with an expectation of low volatility but now Turkey has downed a Russian Jet we have higher volatility likely and additional news risk. So at any point today, some politician from around the world could say something that sends the market into a tailspin. Or we could have another military event that sends us tumbling.

So a day to exercise caution.

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The initial reaction off the news sent the market down just short of the breakout point from last week which was at 63.50. We went as low as 65.50. So it's worth watching 63.50-65.50 if we move down again.

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We could, of course just move back to the range and start trading between 75.25 and 94.50 as was the expectation yesterday. Technically speaking, now that we have moved down, we may have seen positions shaken out and therefore be looking for the low of that range as potential resistance. On the other hand, if we shake the news off, we could well just go back into the range and sit there till next week. Those scenarios don't take into account new news, so an ear to the news feed today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2094.50
Value 2041.25 -> 2086.25
S1 2037.50, R1 - 2117.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2078.25 -> 2093
Value 2084.50 -> 2092.50
Globex 2065.50 -> 2087.25

Settlement - 2084.25

Today only - 2075.25, 63.50-65.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; November 24th, 2015 at 05:54 AM.
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  #655 (permalink)
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paps View Post
what i wouldnt give for a touch of the bottom part of that range Good to have you back. hope all fine at your end.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2094.50

I'll call my friend in Turkey - he can probably arrange it...

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  #656 (permalink)
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Pete...will give anything to meet the numbers . lets go to turkey.

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  #657 (permalink)
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25th November

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Well, I guess you can't keep a good market down. Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We could, of course just move back to the range and start trading between 75.25 and 94.50 as was the expectation yesterday

So my presumption is that we are back in the range.

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Not much to say really, this speaks for itself - a sideways range with a spike that occurred when traders got spooked on the Turkey/Russia news.

Tomorrow is a half day in the markets, it'll be very quiet and not worth trading. Going into today, first thing to look out for is a general lack of volume. This could be from the very start of the day or it could kick in at lunchtime. If there is lack of interest, it's probably worth having a day off. We do have unemployment numbers though and there is always the chance of the political situation giving us a boost.

It should be fairly clear by 10am if it's going to be dead or not.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2065.50 -> 2093
Value 2080.50 -> 2092
S1 2037.50, R1 - 2117.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2078.25 -> 2093
Value 2084.50 -> 2092.50
Globex 2065.50 -> 2087.25

Settlement - 2084.25

Today only - 2075.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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  #658 (permalink)
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30th November

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There's no obvious indication as to whether we'll break upside and hit the highs or if we are done to the upside. As it's not clear, I expect others to be thinking it's unclear to. So my first thoughts about the week ahead is that it's going to be indecisive and low volume until it's clear which way we are headed.

Of course, it's also December and volume will taper off towards the end of the month but we can still expect decent participation once this area is resolved.

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We can see one large distribution from last week and it's worth watching the extremes (the weekly value area). On low volume I will be looking for this to hold. If we poke through with no real increase in participation, I'll consider it a headfake. If we see stops triggering, then I expect it to run.

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This doesn't tell us much - the past few days were holiday, so I'm not paying any attention to "yesterdays" numbers or the weekly S1, R1.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.50 -> 2098.25
Value 2082.75 -> 2092.50
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range holiday
Value holiday
Globex 2083.25 -> 2092

Settlement - holiday

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; November 30th, 2015 at 06:42 AM.
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  #659 (permalink)
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1st December

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Overall, still indecisive. Which means everyone is waiting to see which way everyone is going to play it.... So no long term bias.

Volume not too bad - a shade under 1.4M yesterday.


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We probed down through the bulk of trading from last week and couldn't hold below it - so the "fade the range" is still on the table.

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Again, the only bias you can draw from this is to not have a bias. So it's a day where it is best to presume chop and try to take something early on in the session. As December progresses, this will become more important. Still, we do have potential for a break and a decent run when it happens. I have no way of telling which way the break will be or when it will occur, so I'll just aim to take some early trades as the longer we go into the day, the more chance it'll chop around.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.50 -> 2098.25
Value 2082.75 -> 2092.50
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2092 / 2095
Value 2081.25 -> 2087.25
Globex 2082.50 -> 2092.75

Settlement - 2079.75

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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  #660 (permalink)
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2nd December

Yesterday we said "Again, the only bias you can draw from this is to not have a bias. So it's a day where it is best to presume chop and try to take something early on in the session"

It's worth taking a look at yesterday:

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As you can see - 2 good swings off the open and then tough trading thereafter until we set up at the end of the day. It's worth keeping this in mind when it looks like the day is setting up slowly.

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As we can see, we've broken upside. Today, we will see if that means we will march up to the highs or if the pop up was just down to stops triggering when we moved out of that range we'd been in. Certainly, the volume for yesterday was nothing special, so it's not as if there was massive participation on the break.

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For upside - we have both last weeks high to look at as well as the top of the main distribution of trading from last week (2092.50). Either of these holding on a test should bring in buy side participation.

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Not really much more from the split profile. Other that it also highlights the top of the range.

As we go into today, we are in a situation where the Globex session is long. If that remains the case, there is a good chance of an initial drive down off the open. That could just be a 'rebalance' off the open, so don't let any initial drive down fake you into thinking we are done to the upside. I'll be cautious to the downside until we start eating into last weeks range.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2105
Value 2083.75 -> 2094.25
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range 2082.50 / 2084.25 -> 2101.50
Value 2088.25 -> 2095.25
Globex 2098 -> 2105

Settlement - 2100

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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