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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #641 (permalink)
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21st October



Still trading low volume. Still indecisive after the push through the top.



There's not much of a story here, is there? We are in a range after popping out of a range. So once again, fade the tops if the volume is low. If we do break out (as we did yesterday), then we need to watch the volume closely to see if it's a headfake or not.

As we've said before, when we start a week like this, we can often spot on Monday that we'll be in a range for most of the week. News could get us out but it's really volume/participation that will get us out. So basically fade or look out for that.

There are of course, intraday, mid-range scalp opportunities. For me - I'm more interested in getting a few quick 3 or 4 tick trades and then calling it a day. We can get runners on the days runners are likely.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2014.25 -> 2034.25
Value 2019.50 -> 2026
S1 1996.75, R1 - 2040.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2018.50 -> 2031.50
Value 2020.50 -> 2031.50
Globex 2015.75 -> 2028.50

Settlement - 2027.50

Today only - 2010

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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  #642 (permalink)
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22nd October




We are still in a range but we have now pushed through the bottom. So today we see if we can continue down into the old range of if this weeks range is still in effect.



Earlier this week, we had 2010 as the approximate area where the top of the bulk of trading was from last week. As it is - we got all the way down to last weeks value high at 07.50, which could give cause for upside participation. If we move down into there, then we should expect to move to 2001 and possibly 1988.75.



So far overnight, trading has been very narrow. Yesterday we had good volume on the way down but going into today I am still neutral. But we are at an inflection point, so I am hoping whichever way we break, we see some decent participation.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2007.50 -> 2034.25
Value 2018.50 -> 2028
S1 1996.75, R1 - 2040.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2008.50 -> 2031.25 (day) / 2034.25
Value 2016 -> 2027.50
Globex 2007.50 -> 2017.25

Settlement - 2008.50

Today only - 2007.50, 2001

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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  #643 (permalink)
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23rd October



Finally a break upside. With decent volume too. It is Friday, so we could just consolidate here today but I'll be looking for downside references to be hit for more pushes up. The first of those is the 2046.75 level which gave us support around Aprilt time. Not that I think people are still in from April, just that I think people will be watching it.



Profile-wise, we have weekly value below us at 2030, which does seem a long way down for a retest - but let's not forget the volatility we have had in the past few months.



We can see we broke out from the old weeks high of 34.50 and that acted as support on the pullback yesterday. Absolutely a level to look out for as is the 48.75 level for similar reasons.

Yesterday was bullish, so it wont take too much for people to buy again, I'd much prefer to see it come down a little, find support and then move up.

All we need is a co-operative market....

Weekly Numbers
Range 2007.50 -> 2061.75
Value 2014.50 -> 2030
S1 1996.75, R1 - 2040.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2007.50 (overnight) / 2021.50 -> 2054
Value 2035.75 -> 2048.25
Globex 2051.25 -> 2061.75

Settlement - 2053

Today only - 2047.75-2048.75, 2030-2034.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.500

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  #644 (permalink)
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26th October



Still moving up, decent volume, so I presume we are taking a run for the highs. It's failed at both 2117 & 2092.50 previously, so an eye on those levels.

We've just broken the 46.75 level, so looking for that as a possible retest for support.



We can see a small upper distribution from last week with a low around 53.25, so again I have an eye on that.



We can see that friday day session traded within the overnight session, so what we don't want to do is stay within that area and have a range week. So again - looking at the lows from Friday for support.

We could go down but my bias is to the upside, looking for a reaction off a downside level. We actually didn't get much volume from 53 all the way down to 30 last week, so if it does break downside, it could break fast, so we have to watch out for that.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2007.50 -> 2074.50
Value 2009.50 -> 2038
S1 2025, R1 - 2090.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2051.25 (overnight) / 2056.75 -> 2073.50 / 2074.50 (overnight)
Value 2062.25 -> 2070.75
Globex 2057.50 -> 2066.25

Settlement - 2066

Today only - 2053.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.500

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  #645 (permalink)
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Hi All

I have a family emergency back home in the UK.

So there will be no prep for a few weeks at least.

Cheers

Pete

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  #646 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Hi All

I have a family emergency back home in the UK.

So there will be no prep for a few weeks at least.

Cheers

Pete

Sorry Pete, our thoughts are with you

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  #647 (permalink)
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16th November

Back and all is relatively well back at home - my father had a heart attack and some complications as a result. He's a very fit 73 years old, he's out of hospital and now comes the mammoth task of keeping him off ladders, plastering walls and lugging dustbins around at least until he's had a bit more rest.



I've been away from the news and the markets, so this was sort of a shock. Once again we've gone for the highs and once again no interest to push through and make new ones. We've do have a level at 2013, which is where we spiked up to off the back of the September FOMC news and which was the high of that late August to mid October range.

We've gone through that but all markets are taking a bit of a dive today off the sad news in Paris. So I think that 2013 level is still in play and that we still have potential to pop up from here. These sort of news driven knee jerks tend to be short lives but we do have to respect the fact we are in a down move in a range that has lasted most of the year. So we could be heading to 1936 or 1850 in the next few trading days. My first scenario today is a pop up from here, driven by the news washing out. We do have news risk today as there could be more attacks, so it's not a day to go 'all in', in my opinion.



Looking at last weeks profile, I think 2040 and 2065 are potential hurdles but the 2040 is fairly tenuous and it's the 2065 that signals where the bulk of trading took place. Overall - looking at last week, there's not a lot of volume traded between here and 2065, so that does mean there's not much standing between here and 2065 if buyers do step up.



In terms of daily profiles - well there isn't much above us that really gives us a good area to play off. For the short side, I'l be looking at the long term levels as well as Fridays high low/value high low as my scenario 2 is a continued sell off to 1982 where I expect at least a pause if it doesn't reverse.

If the overnight session doesn't give us many clues, then I'll sit tight for the first 15 mins today to let the market show its hand a little. The bounce up is worth watching for but it's really trading against overall momentum and so I'd be more than happy to miss a decent amount of any move up for confirmation.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2016 -> 2097.75
Value 2009.50 -> 2097
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2016 -> 2039.50 (day) / 2046 (overnight)
Value 2021.25 -> 2033.25
Globex 1998.50 -> 2016.25

Settlement - 2018.50

Today only - 2040, 2065

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.500
October 23rd, 2015 04:41 PM

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  #648 (permalink)
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17th November



We got the bounce up yesterday, so most likely scenario is that we'll run to the highs again for another test.



We had 2065 as a level yesterday, and it's worth keeping an eye on today as that's the bottom of the bulk of trading last week and any bounce down from there could bring in a crowd of sellers. Above that area - 2080 and up, there's not much stopping us.



We also had 2040 as a level yesterday. Not much happened there but it is worth watching that as potential support today, that's just above yesterdays VAH at 2038. So more reason to watch that area.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2016 -> 2097.75
Value 2009.50 -> 2097
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1998.50 (overnight) / 2014.50 -> 2051
Value 2019-> 2038
Globex 2045.75-> 2057.25

Settlement - 2048

Today only - 2040, 2065

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.500

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  #649 (permalink)
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18th November



Volume still fairly decent, no sign of it tailing off as we head into the end of the year. We did get a pop up yesterday as expected but fell 6 ticks short of the 2065 level we had our eyes on.

So that makes me a bit more neutral today.



So we can see the 2065 above us and I'm still wary of that going into today.



What is interesting is this split profile - it does look like we have the potential to sit in a range for the next few days. So today I'm initially watching to see how we react at yesterdays high/low. If we extend through a few ticks and then reverse or not. If we do, then I expect to attempt to go tp the opposite extreme from yesterday.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2063.50
Value 2024.25 -> 2063.25
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2041.50 / 2063.50
Value 2046.75 -> 2056
Globex 2043 -> 2052

Settlement - 2049

Today only - 2065

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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  #650 (permalink)
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19th November



We had a good push up after FOMC yesterday, so there's 2 things on my mind today

1 - We are close to the top, so we really should test it
2 - We had a big move up yesterday which has continued overnight and often that leads to at least an early correction down

We have a level above at 92.50 which could easily be taken out by the time we get through the 8:30am Unemployment numbers. Other than that, target is the all time high or the last failure at 2110.25.



Ideally, we'd stay above 2078 - where the top of the bulk of trading from last week occurred. Going through there makes the reversal down to 2065 more likely.



We have the high of Tuesday at 2063.50 and the breakout from yesterdays range at 2066, so again if we do move down, I'll be watching that general area for support.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2088.75
Value 2040.75 -> 2088.75
S1 1993.50, R1 - 2065.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2043 / 2052.75 -> 2082.50
Value 2055 -> 2071
Globex 2077.75 -> 2089

Settlement - 2079.75

Today only - 2063.50-2066, 2078, 2110.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

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