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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #51 (permalink)
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26th July (5:40 am EST)

On Thursday, we made up a little of the ground we lost on Wednesday and we have approached 1690 in the Globex but since returned to yesterdays VAL, as I write this.



It's still a sideways market and it is summer time with little news on the horizon. I still think 1672.75 would be a good target for shorts and we will see more shorts if we get below 1666.50



The value low for the week is 1683.25. We really need to stay above there if we are going to try to run up today. Saying that, the month ends on Wednesday next week and it may well be that we mill around here until Tuesday/Wednesday and run 1700 then. There's UOM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation today but that's unlikely to give us the push we need.



We have peeked above yesterdays range in the globex but are now back within value and long won't want to see us dip below value either in the Globex or the Pit session.



I'll be keeping an eye on the volume off the open. Yesterday we had a fairly nice start with volume being above average through the open. It seems some of Wenesdays enthusiasm came over into Thursday. That soon waned and at 10am the volume started to dry up.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1671.75 -> 1695.50
Value 1682.75 -> 1694.50
S1, 1673.25, R1 - 1698.00

Daily Numbers
Range 1671.75 (pit) / 1674.75 -> 1686.50
Value 1678.75> 1685.25
Globex 1679.25 (at at 5:40am)-> 1689.00
Other 1660.25, 1665.75, 1672.75, 1675.25, 1685.75

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  #52 (permalink)
Legendary  Vendor: www.jigsawtrading.com 
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Someone asked for the indicator that shows the relative volume from the previous post.

It's a very simple indicator, doesn't really take care of half days but you can see where they are generally speaking.

I set it up on the continuous symbol (ES ##-##), 1 min bars, 60 days to load. The more days to load the further it goes back .

The indicator is attached.

JTRelativeVolume.cs

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  #53 (permalink)
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I'm really interested in how you calculate the weekly and daily numbers in every post.

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  #54 (permalink)
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30th July



We are still moving sideways and the volume is still light.



The top of our range is 1695.50 and the lower end is 1670.50. Below that we still have the 1666.50 level that was the first support after the latest pop up.

We need one of the extremes to brake in order to get another decent move but which side it'll break or when is anyone's guess.



The weekly profile for last week shows value 1681.25-> 1694.25 and we've already tested that to the downside, popped through and come back. To the upside we have Fridays high @ 1689.00 and if we get through that I expect us to hit the range high.



The daily profiles don't show much other than the Globex sessions is mostly above yesterdays close, if that continues into the open, a test of yesterdays value should give us some clues.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1670.50 -> 1695.50
Value 1681.25 -> 1694.25
S1 1672.75, R1 1697.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1676.50 -> 1686.25 (pit)/1688 (globex)
Value 1678.75 -> 1683.25
Globex 1682.00 -> 1687.25
Other 1666.50, 1670.50, 1689, 1695.50

One thing to bear in mind today and tomorrow is that tomorrow is the last day of the month. We opened the month at 1600.25. You could argue that there's no need for window dressing at the end of the month considering how much higher we are but keep in mind that a "nudge up" could start and we could close above 1700.

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  #55 (permalink)
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30th July



Situation is pretty much the same as yesterdays prep, so I won't go into too much detail. Levels are mostly the same and situation is mostly the same. A short term range 70.50-> 98.50 with additional resistance at 1689 - which is more or less where we held again yesterday.

It is the last day of the month, so a push up to 1700 is possible BUT we are still up 85 points on the month, so window dressing isn't really necessary.



Globex range and value is within yesterdays range & value, so testing that is the first order of the day.

Weekly Numbers (this week)
Range 1676.50 -> 1688.50
Value 1682.00 -> 1686.50
S1 1672.75, R1 1697.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1677.25 -> 1688.50
Value 1680.25 -> 1686.25
Globex 1682.00 -> 1687.75
Other 1666.50, 1670.50, 1689, 1695.50

Chicago PMI @ 9:45 - that might be the trigger for a push up to 1700 even if it is only mildly good news.

BTW - if you like July's action - you are going to LOVE August!

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  #56 (permalink)
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1st August



Well - we really looked like we were going to run for 1700 yesterday afternoon after the FOMC statement but we couldn't quite make it. Volume was quite high relatively speaking yesterday with over 2 million traded.



So effectively nothing has changed, we are still in the same range and volume has been on the low side in the Globex session, so it doesn't look like there will be a continuation in terms of participation.



Overnight action has been almost 100% above yesterdays close, and so we might see a move down off the open to test yesterdays value high 1691.25.

At some point we need to break out and it does look bullish overall at this point but then the tops of ranges always seem to look like they want to break out. I think it's due time we broke 1700 and it looks like this is it but won't be jumping on it unless there is huge participation or if we come down to test an area below first.

Weekly Numbers (this week)
Range 1676.50 -> 1694.50
Value 1681.75 -> 1688
S1 1672.75, R1 1697.75


Daily Numbers

Range 1680.25-> 1694
Value 1684.25 -> 1691.25
Globex 1684.50 -> 1694.50
Other 1666.50, 1670.50, 1689, 1695.50

Right now, there's big steps on the volume profile @1692 & 1693.75 too. That also be a stopping point either side off the open if it is still like that at 9:30.

3 wisdom teeth out tomorrow - so I probably won't be doing any prep!

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  #57 (permalink)
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@DionysusToast

About your morning prep. you never mention where you will buy or sell before the day begins. Profiler in his thread formulates two hypothesis based on his assessment of the situation. Do you think this practice is appropriate or do you more simply prefer to jump on the train based on the order flow of the moment?

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  #58 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
@DionysusToast

About your morning prep. you never mention where you will buy or sell before the day begins. Profiler in his thread formulates two hypothesis based on his assessment of the situation. Do you think this practice is appropriate or do you more simply prefer to jump on the train based on the order flow of the moment?

@ Before the open, I always have in my head the scenarios that may play out.

All of the prices mentioned in my prep are potential turning points. On top of these prices I also use any major steps on the profile as we move into the open.

So, a scenario might be 'testing value and moving up' on a gap up. As we open, we may well:

- bounce off the overnight low and not make it to yesterdays value
- bounce off yesterdays high and not make it to yesterdays value
- bounce off yesterdays VAH
- go deep into yesterdays value and then move up
- bounce off yesterdays VAL

After a gap up, moving down to a reference point and getting rejected is quite common. Knowing exactly which reference point it will move off is tough, at least for me.

The way I trade, if I took 3 failed shots at a reversal, that would see me playing catch up all day. I don't scale in, so that's not an option as a trade moves against.

So - I do have scenarios but I don't try to guess the turning point.

Now - on top of this, I am just not a permafader by nature and I don't like to take trades where lots of other traders will be jumping in because there is a high chance of gameplay. So what I do basically is this:

- do my prep, have my scenarios
- if it is moving down, I will only take shorts. I try not to fade it.
- if it's is moving down, I will not take a short into a reference point
- if it hits a reference point, I will watch it bounce off, look at the delta that accompanies the bounce as well as the size/volume of the bounce
- if I decide that this bounce is a reversal, then I will then look for a minor pullback (usually the first one) and take a trade in the new direction

So I may to some extent be doing far too much analysis for the sort of trades I take but I like to have situational awareness for the day.

Obviously as well as the above, I am also watching closely for the market to be in a tight range because then you have to be a fade. I primarily identify the tight range by lower than normal volume and higher than normal volume traded @ each price.

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  #59 (permalink)
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Great post Peter. I wanted to permalink it for reference later, but for some reason that post does not have a permalink. Oh well, copy and paste it is. Thanks again for all your informative posts.

Cheers!

Edit- now it does :-)

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  #60 (permalink)
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I'm not sure if you saw my question or not but, I will repeat it again.


ghl123 View Post
I'm really interested in how you calculate the weekly and daily numbers in every post.


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