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DTs Pre Market Prep

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24th March



Still in the box, still waiting for a test of the extremes to confirm.



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
The Globex session has stayed within the Friday range and we do NOT want the Monday pit session to do that. So looking for clues from the late pullback (2097.50) and the value/day range. We want a hold and for players to come in off that hold and get us out of this range. When the Monday overnight & pit session sessions are bound by Fridays range, it can be a painful few days.

And we went on to have a poor range day. So today we want to shake this range off. We have broken Fridays low of 2092 - but still keep an eye on that.

So really - watching the usual levels and looking for signs that we can get out of this range. If for example we start to head up, I'll take a long but be wary if we are too close to yesterdays low.

Patience is key. Of late there have been some opportunities on days that started slow but you had to be patient to get them and to not to reduce your account boredom trading.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2037.25 -> 2106.75
Value 2048.75 -> 2088.75
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2093.25 (globex) / 2094.25 (pit) -> 2107
Value - 2101.25 -> 2105.25
Globex - 2091.75 -> 2099.25

Settlement - 2094.75
Today - 2074.00-2074.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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25th March



We manage to break out of Mondays range yesterday but we still have the 81.25 and the 74.50 below us, so I'm watching those to see if either attract buyers.



We are still in the upper distribution from last week with the single at 74.00 to look out for.



The good news is that we did break out of Fridays range yesterday - we had an attempt at the Globex high after a somewhat choppy morning and in the Globex session, we have consolidated.

We have durable goods at 8:30am, so we may move before the open but basically, I'll be looking at yesterdays low/value low for a reaction (really looking for either to provide resistance) and then looking at 81.25 and 74.50 as lines in the sand. I don't think you need to get long at 81.25 or 71.50 but rather wait to see if there is follow through on a reaction there and then jump on.

But then, I'm cautious....

Weekly Numbers
Range 2082.75 -> 2107
Value 2093.75 -> 205.25
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2083 -> 2100 (pit) / 2101 (globex)
Value - 2088.50 -> 2099.50
Globex - 2082.75 -> 2088.25

Settlement - 2085

Today - 2074.00-2074.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

And just for fun - we had a surprise rain in Bangkok yesterday and it obviously took the flood defenses by surprise too.. Here's a picture my friend took in the local supermarket.

]

"Could be worse - could be raining"

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26th March



One issue with just trading the AM sessions is that you can go to bed before the good stuff happens. So I was a little surprised to see this today.

We've been as low as 1960 and so today, as with the day after any bid down day - we look out to see if there's a lot of volume one side or the other. We could see a snap back, we could see it carry on down. 1929 is the next line in the sand below and above us is 2060.75.



Looking up - we can see we had a range with a top of 2066.75 yesterday before the late push down. We've gone straight down in the Globex session, so that session is almost 100% short. So there may be an initial snap back. I would not take that to mean we will go up all day, it may be just a re-balance off the open.

I won't pay much attention to the weekly profile. Just watch yesterdays low and 66.75 if we do head up. It's all about whether we get good volume & direction today. If we do, I'll be looking to jump on it.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2033.25 -> 2107
Value 2077.25 -> 2106.25
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2052.25 -> 2089.25
Value - 2060 -> 2082.50
Globex - 2033.25 -> 2056.50

Settlement - 2085

Today - 2074.00-2074.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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27th March



Decent volume yesterday but we didn't get anywhere. The AM Session was giving mixed signals and it was 'interesting' trading to say the least.

We have the 60.75 above and the 29.00 level below as lines in the sand. As of yet, there's been no real indication of whether this market will revisit the tops or carry on Wednesdays move down. It's a coin toss for me.



We still have the 66.75 level from Wednesday and we can look at the late move down from Thursday with a low of 46.50 which is currently holding.

For me - it's still a case of which side sneezes first. We are close to significant levels above, so if we can get a test up there, I think it should bring in speculators whatever the result.

On the downside, I don't really see a good case for decent participation to the downside FROM HERE until we break the weeks low. So hoping for a test of 60/66.75 to "resolve" things and for traders to jump on the resulting move. With no decent test above, I expect moves down to be sluggish if they occur.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.25 -> 2107
Value 2053.25 -> 2106.25
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2033.25 (globex)/ 2036.25 -> 2058.75
Value - 2044.75 -> 2054.25
Globex - 2046.75 -> 2057.75

Settlement - 2048.50

Today - 2066.75, 2046.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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1st April

Back after a short break



The market seems to be fairly happy between 2029 & 2110.25 of late. The other lines we have seem to be on/off in terms of being significant so it's worth leaving then there.

With the push down overnight and rapid recovery, we can consider 2029 tested and look for confirmation of a move up with 2060.75 as a potential roadblock and 2081.25 as a more serious contender for a target.



The weekly profile also confirms the 2080 level with the upper distribution from last week having a low around that area.



The market really fell out of bed this morning whilst I was having my coffee. An April fools gag taken a bit too seriously? I couldn't believe my eyes the way it was selling off.

Monday and Tuesday were quite narrow. So into today looking for signs that buyers are stepping in after that 'test' - but it was a test when it was very thin trading so it might just be ignored & we could end up back in Mondays/Tuesdays range and doing not much at all. Still - we hit a tick shy of last weeks low, so for sure - SOMEBODY came in and took advantage of those prices.

A rejection of Tuesdays low from below is a possibility, so looking for sellers from there or Tuesdays value area which is well defined & seems significant.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.50 -> 2081.75
Value 2055.25 -> 2080.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2056.25 -> 2076.25 (pit) / 2076.75 (globex)
Value - 2066 -> 2074
Globex - 2033.50 -> 2060.50

Settlement - 2060.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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April 2nd



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
With the push down overnight and rapid recovery, we can consider 2029 tested and look for confirmation of a move up with 2060.75 as a potential roadblock and 2081.25 as a more serious contender for a target.

At that point, we'd already hit 60.50, we managed another push up in the Globex session to 60.75 and then rolled over. So we are still bracketed by 2029 & 2060.50 and either could hold. Obviously if 2029 breaks, that could lead to a more significant sell off. If we pop through 60.50, I doubt there will be too much excitement.



We can see somewhat of a double distribution on the weekly profile - so again, looking for a reaction at 2060. We do seem to be struggling to get down all the way to 2029, so keep an eye on the value low at 43.



Yesterday we recovered most of the overnight push down before the pit session open and then we had a decent push down again at 9:30. After that we came back and rotated the rest of the day. The overnight session has so far stayed within that range and tomorrow is a holiday.

On that basis, it could be a slow day but we do have the employment numbers out at 8:30 along with trade balance.

Going in to the open, if the news is flat, then I'll be looking for yesterdays range/value for clues. and for a test of 2060.75.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.50 -> 2081.75
Value 2043-> 2068

Daily Numbers
Range - 2033.50 (globex) / 2039.75 (pit) -> 2059 (pit) / 2060.75 (globex)
Value - 2045.75 -> 2053.25
Globex - 2044 -> 2057

Settlement - 2053

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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April 6th



Holiday in Europe today, so it's been a slow one overnight. Not expecting a big day in the US, although the NFP was a big miss on Friday, which was a holiday and saw a big push down. That's a bit of a wildcard.



Last weeks profile was cut off at the top by the upper distribution from the prior week. Really, not much to day about it other than watch last weeks value.



We can see the big drop on Friday here. Volume was just over 1 million on Friday, so nothing to write home about.

So going into today, it's a bit of a crap shoot. The big dive down after NFP on a holiday day, Europe being closed. We are still between the 2029 & 2060.75 level, so one of those levels breaking/holding still has a decent chance of giving us some indication of a run. Otherwise, I think we have to let volume build up first to get a price to lean on.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.50 -> 2081.75
Value 2044.25 -> 2065.75
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2038 -> 2063.75 (pit) / 2064.75 (global)
Value - 2057.50 -> 2063.50
Globex - 2038.75 -> 2047.75

Settlement - not sure (CME website not updated) but looks about 2039.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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April 7th



We had a big move up yesterday but we are still in a range. It was an odd day - as we moved up, we printed very little volume at any price. There was no real commitment. As such, a fall back through those thinly traded prices was always a potential but it didn't happen.

Total volume traded was under a million contracts - of course partly because it was Easter Monday in Europe and many traders had the day off. We are now close to the 81.25 level, so all eyes on that. We could very easily drop to 2060.75 because of the relative lack of support built below yesterday. We just didn't build much volume anywhere.



This is something you don't see often!

Last weeks range is one to look out for as we couldn't break it yesterday. We can also see here the potential for a drop if we break 2070 to the downside. Looking at this, a drop to the high 40's wouldn't take much.



The late push down yesterday was to 2072.25. The Globex low so far is 2070.25. As we get to the pit session open, I have an eye on 70.25 - whether we can hold it or not. I am also watching for any test of 81.25 to see what the result is as I think it'll bring in traders either way.

Between 70 & 80 - I'm not interested.

So for me going into today, I'm cautious - it could be another wild one. If we push down we could go as low as the high 40's or one of our long term levels could kick in. We don't really have supporting volume anywhere but of course that could develop as today progresses - which would mean a slower day but with something solid to lean on.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.50 -> 2081.75
Value 2044.25 -> 2065.75
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2038.75 / 2047 (pit) -> 2080
Value - 2063.25 -> 2079.75
Globex - 2070.25 -> 2077.50

Settlement - 2073.25

Today only - 2072.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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nice analysis.

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8th April



Yesterday was not a holiday and volume was still fairly low. We got multiple tests of the 81.25 level but we just could not maintain that. So now eyes on the 60.75 level below to see if that holds for another push to the top of overall range.

There was never a real rush of sellers on those failures to stay above 81.25. We did get to the 72.25 level we were watching yesterday but only at the very end of the day.



We can still see the huge thing area on this weeks profile and I think that we have to be cautious short into 60.75 but once through there, we could get to the high 40's.



Yesterday was a bit rough. Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Between 70 & 80 - I'm not interested

On that first test of the highs, we got through the bump on the volume profile and there was a continuation trade short at 77.25 but we just couldn't get more than a few ticks through the pit session low. As it went back up to the highs, it was disheartening as you could see it would chop for a while and I really had little interest at that point.

So into today - overnight we are below value from yesterday, so watching for that to hold. I'm hoping we can push through 60 for a quick run down. If we get back above 72, I think it'll be choppy and be rough trade unless we can get up and pop through 80.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2038.74 -> 2082.75
Value 2065.25 -> 2081.75
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2067.25 -> 2082.75
Value - 2075 -> 2082
Globex - 2064.50 -> 2073.75

Settlement - 2067.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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9th April



Volume a slightly healthier 1.2 Million. Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Between 70 & 80 - I'm not interested

Mind you - we had that the day before too. We are in a range. It's pretty sloppy action between 70 & 80 - we've had extensions either side but no traction. Yesterday, a trader told me this...


Quoting 
Funny enough i just though last week i finally got it, and there we go this week lost all of it

If you think about it - not many people trading, it's in a range, no-one knows where it's going, not much commitment and so not really an easy read. When tons of people are all seeing a move and jumping on - it's an easy read.



We can see the volume building between 70 & 80 here. At some point this will break. It cannot stay here forever. When it does, there should be a reaction. In the middle it will be crappy.



At the risk of sounding repetitive..... same story here.

So watch yesterdays range/value as we kick off the day, either holding could cause one side to step on the gas and cause a break of the range the opposite side. Other than that - we can fade the extremes, which is sort or risky in terms of win rate as we've been here a while but NOT too risky in terms of R:R as we'll soon know if we are wrong. Other than that, if we don't get a hold to drive us to an extreme, wait for the break and count on there being a run when it does break.

Anything in the middle is tough trade.

Unemployment numbers today - so that might shake us out.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2038.74 -> 2082.75
Value 2067.25 -> 2079.25
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2064.50 (globex) / 2065.75 -> 2080.25
Value - 2071.25 -> 2076.75
Globex - 2067.25 -> 2078

Settlement - 2067

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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10th April

An early one today as I'm making up for forgetting my wedding anniversary - which my wife forgot too but "that's different"...



We broke out of that 70-80 zone that was drawing is back all week, so today we need to stay above it for a break up to the 2100's or we slide back and chop about. First thing to look for is a pullback to 2081.25 area and it to hold.

That gives the clearest signal. We may not get the pullback, we could go back up but a re-test will see more speculators come on board.



The same thing is evident on the weekly profile but the low volume in the middle is about 82.25, so let's watch for the hold there too..



Same thing on the split profile. We could also consider a pullback to the value high from yesterday but below that, I'm expecting more choppy action.

So a fairly clear day - upside has good potential if we can hold those upper reference points. Downside will probably be tough trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2038.74 -> 2087.50
Value 2067 -> 2080
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2066.75-> 2087
Value - 2070.50 -> 2080
Globex - 2083 -> 2087.50 (3:30am EST)

Settlement - 2085.75

Today only - 2081.25 -> 2082.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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14th April

Happy Thai New Year.



We didn't make it to the highs yet but I think that's still potentially on the cards. So today, we have to decide if we are going to run to the top or if we are now done and headed back to 2030. Obviously, we are looking at 2081.25 still - the closest line in the sand below.



On the weekly profile, we can see that we are above the value area and that the 2081.25 level is at the top of the major distribution from last week. So again, 2081.25 is on our radar.



For downside, we have 2093.25 to watch for - that could potentially act as resistance and if so, we should expect sellers to jump in there. This was the breakdown point yesterday.



It's worth considering the delta shift yesterday. We can see delta came off about 35k overall. Volume was light, just over a million contracts. So right now, from a volume/delta perspective, there was not massive participation in the move down yesterday. While that continues, I'm still biased long.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2085.25 -> 2101.25
Value 2088.75 -> 2096.75
S1 - 2063, R1 2112

Daily Numbers
Range - 2085.25 -> 2101.25
Value - 2085.25 -> 2096.75
Globex - 2085.75 -> 2092.75

Settlement - 2086.50

Today only - 2093.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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15th April



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We didn't make it to the highs yet but I think that's still potentially on the cards. So today, we have to decide if we are going to run to the top or if we are now done and headed back to 2030. Obviously, we are looking at 2081.25 still - the closest line in the sand below.

Obviously that still remains unresolved. We had a push through 2081.25 and couldn't stay below it. There was no real reaction either way and we stayed within the overnight range all day. If we can break above 2100, I'd expect us to test the highs but right now, it's looking like there's no real commitment either side.

Volume was 1.2 million - on the low side.



The weekly profile shows fairly balanced trade. So the developing value are for the week is worth watching and fading the extremes is more likely to work if we have low volume, low commitment trade.



Longs need to watch the value low as well as the late pullback to 2085.75. For shorts, I'd prefer to see a test of the tops or weekly value. Although the overnight high holding could bring in sellers as there's not really much above us to play off.

It looks like we could start to chop, I'll be looking initially at volume and follow through - it could well be a slow day.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2075.75 -> 2101.25
Value 2085.75 -> 2095.50
S1 - 2063, R1 2112

Daily Numbers
Range - 2075.75 -> 2092 (pit) / 2092.50 (globex)
Value - 2082.25 -> 2091.25
Globex - 2087.25 -> 2097

Settlement - 2091

Today only - 2085.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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16th April, 2015



Volume just over a million yesterday. Yesterday we had:


Quoting 
It looks like we could start to chop, I'll be looking initially at volume and follow through - it could well be a slow day.

And in the AM, if you didn't catch the move off the open, it was painful going. We build a range, that broke upside & we built another range and that broke downside. Tricky days to trade because you need to stay focused through the chop to catch the break.

It does look like we are making a play for the high but looking left, we are at about the area the last move to the highs failed. So we may now be done & headed back down to 2030. We can see the small white line around 92.75, I'd expect that to hold on a test if we are really going to make a break.

Then again, I'd also expect us to be seeing more participation. So if we do get a test, I want to see above average volume or I can't see how we can really run the highs. Perhaps the buy volume is the other side of the highs....



The weekly profile implies we are just rotating around value and that fades are still in play. I don't see much use for this going into today.



In terms of levels to play off - yesterday we flipped around 2102.25 - and the overnight session has poked above that but not held it, so it's a level to keep in mind. The late push down was to 2098.75 but I think the key level again is the 2092.75 - which was Tuesdays high. I feel this needs to hold for us to run the highs.

If volume continues to be weak, it's hard to see how we can put in a good break. As I said, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the volume is there ABOVE the highs and that we poke weakly through and that triggers buying.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2075.75 -> 2105.50
Value 2086.25 -> 2100
S1 - 2063, R1 2112

Daily Numbers
Range - 2087.25 (globex) / 2094.25 (pit) -> 2105.50
Value - 2097.75 -> 2103.75
Globex - 2097.75 -> 2102.75

Settlement - 2099.75

Today only - 2092.75, 2098.75, 2102.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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17th April

Volume still weak, still in the range as per the past few days prep. Levels are holding but if you don't get on them at the extremes, it's painful trying to catch the follow through.



D shaped profile more or less -we made no new high yesterday and so fading extremes/value on a weekly basis is still in play.



We can still keep yesterdays 2092.75 on the radar today, although I'd expect a nose through at least today.

But really, not much to say - it's been a low volume rangey week and there's been no will to run the highs or send us on our way back down to 2030. Of course it will break at some point and the longer we stay here the more violent the break. But it's the end of the week. So if it hasn't done it by lunchtime, I'd say it's not going to happen today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2075.75 -> 2105.50
Value 2088.75 -> 2101.25
S1 - 2063, R1 2112

Daily Numbers
Range - 2089 (globex) / 2092.75 (pit) -> 2104.50
Value - 2095.25 -> 2101.25
Globex - 2096 -> 2101.50

Settlement - 2100.75

Today only - 2092.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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20th April



The top seems to have failed with a push down late on Friday. The Globex session has made up some ground, so it's down to whether the day session will come in and push us down again. I'm looking for confirmation that we are headed back down to 2030 (although we have kept falling short on previous attempts) and I need to see some confirmation of that.



We were below the major distribution from last week and have pushed back up into it. Into the pit session, we need to keep below 2085 or it'll likely be choppy, we can see that the prior week had little trading down to 2045, so we if we do get downside momentum, we could end up there quite quickly.



The Globex session is 100% long so far. So a reaction down is probable. I'd like to see us below 2085 and then through our 2081.25 level. We can see the 2087.25 level was a flip - it was support and became the high on Friday, so also looking for a reaction there.

So looking for an early rejection and some downside momentum. Upside, will be frustrating trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2064.50 -> 2105.50
Value 2086.25 -> 2101.75
S1 - 2058, R1 2099

Daily Numbers
Range - 2064.50 -> 2087 (pit) / 2101.75
Value - 2070.25 -> 2079.75
Globex - 2078.50 -> 2089.75

Settlement - 2075.75

Today only - 2085, 2087.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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22nd April



Volume just over a milion & looking right we are in an are we've traded a lot recently which tends towards is being choppy. The 81.25 level appears to be holding which indicates a run (or meandering stroll) to the highs if that holds into the pit session.



We can see above use we have a distribution above 2089 and a distribution below it. So we'll mark that as a line in the sand, if sellers come in at that point, we can short into 81.25.



Also we have a swing from yesterday PM at 2094.50, which is another line in the sand.

So looking at 89., 94.50 to see if sellers come in but otherwise biased to the upside based on 81.25 holding. Would love to see a test of 81.25 hold in the pit session. If 81.25 breaks, then bias changes to short and target will be 60.75.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2105.25
Value 2088.25 -> 2102.25
S1 - 2058, R1 2099

Daily Numbers
Range - 2087.25 -> 2103.50 (pit) / 2105.25
Value - 2090 -> 2095.50
Globex - 2080.75 -> 2098.59

Settlement - 2091

Today only - 2089, 2094.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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23 April



Volume still on the low side, 1.1 million again yesterday and we seem to be having trouble getting through 2105.50. We also can't seem to stay below 2081.25 below us and whilst we are between those prices, it's hard to have a specific bias.



We can see that the bulk of trading is not dissimilar to last week. We are in a range, building positions, waiting for the range to be resolved one way or the other.



Looking at yesterday, we have potential for resistance at 98.75, 94.00 is also a line in the sand and may be significant.

Other than that, it's a tough call unless we hit one of the weeks extremes and turn there, that should give us a run to the other side. In the middle, we have levels to play off but follow through is less certain.

Bias is slightly to the downside as we have completed a trip to the top but we may see a reaction at 2089. If we can get through that, we should get to out 2081.25 level.

Of course, we cannot dismiss a breakout above but there's really no volume up there. If we do breakout upside, we need to see some serious participation to join in long as volume has been so low up here.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2105.25
Value 2089.25 -> 2101.75
S1 - 2058, R1 2099

Daily Numbers
Range - 2080.25 / 2083.75 -> 2103.75
Value - 2092 -> 2103
Globex - 2087.50 -> 2101

Settlement - 2101.50

Today only - 2089, 2094.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
April 20th, 2015 05:19 PM

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24th April



Volume so far has been around 1.3 million, so a little healthier. We've taken a pop through the highs, no sign of buyers up there yet. Now we are looking for signs of failure or for signs that a good amount of buyers come in.



We can look at the main distribution which tops out about 2101.50. So looking for that to hold if we move down.



The late pullback in the PM was down to 2106, so watching also for a reaction there.

Basically today, it's really a matter of seeing if we actually get some commitment from one side or the other. It's possible that everyone is waiting to see what everyone else does.

If volume is low, then I'm looking for short term trades, not expecting much follow through. Other than that, just looking for momentum to the upside/downside. If we can get a reaction off the old high or yesterdays range/value range.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2114..50
Value 2086.25 -> 2102.75
S1 - 2058, R1 2099

Daily Numbers
Range - 2087.50 / 2094.75 -> 2114.50
Value - 2100.75-> 2114.25
Globex - 2103 -> 2113.25

Settlement - 2107

Today only - 2106

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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27th April



Volume was below a million contracts on Friday, so there's not much interest in trading at these highs just yet. That doesn't make me want to automatically fade it just yet. There's a lack of interest, so it's a tough read.



We do have an upper distribution above 2106, so it's worth looking around there. An ideal scenario for the upside would be a downside test first that attracts a lot of attention.



We had a late pullback on Friday to 2109 and 2103.75 is also worth watching.

If volume is low though - it's going to be tough trade. So I'm just watching to see if volume initiates a move from one of these areas and or course the new all time high at 2116.50.

It's a wait & see day for me. No rush to trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2114.75
Value 2082.75 -> 2102.75
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2103 (globex) / 2105.75 -> 2114.75
Value - 2109.25-> 2113.25
Globex - 2108.50 -> 2116.50

Settlement - 2111.75

Today only - 2103.25, 2106, 2109

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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28th April



We've moved off the highs yesterday. It looks like a rejection but only 1.2 million contracts traded, which isn't an lot. So right now biased towards a push down to 2081.25. Possibly with an end goal of 2030.



We are within last weeks value area, we have the bulk of trading below 2097.75, so looking at that as a potential hurdle. If we bounce off that, I'd expect buyers to try and push it up.



The late pullback was to 2109, so again looking at that to see if we have rejection. This was significant in yesterdays prep yesterday, so eyes should be on it. Certainly we should get that if shorts want to push us down.

Globex is mostly short, so we may see a correction upside off the open but the gameplan for me is downward bias. Looking for reference points from yesterday as clues to whether that bias is playing out or not.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2098.75 -> 2119.75
Value 2103.75 -> 2119.25
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2100.25 -> 2119.75
Value - 2101.50 -> 2114
Globex - 2098.75 -> 2106.25

Settlement - 2104.75

Today only - 2109, 2097.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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29th April



That was an interesting day. We had the consumer confidence numbers out and about the same time some news that a US Navy boat had been captured by the Iranian Navy.

We took a big nose dive and then the news came out "no, we found them", which brings to mind pictures of drunken sailors taking a little unauthorized shore leave.

Anyway - problem over, market shoots straight back up. End result is a higher close. and just short of 1.5 million contracts traded.

If you take away the news, then it looks like sellers pushed down and got to an area where a lot of buyers were waiting. With the news, speculators took it down and then they took it up again. I think both moves were purely short term speculation but that does mean going into today is tricky. I still have my bias short. I still think we should hit 2080 area as we have tested the range upside. Doesn't matter what I think if a bunch of traders see yesterday as a bullish signal and buy, buy, buy.

So I'm short biased long term but really not sure how to play today other than allowing the early action to shake out one way or the other and taking bits of the resulting move. I just have low confidence either side.



Early on, I'll be watching 2104.50 to see if that level holds and will watch the daily levels. Like I say - it was an odd day and I'm not sure what to think.

Also - it's FOMC day - so we could be very dull in the AM and the PM will be just as unpredictable.

All in all - a good day to not trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2088.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2100.75 -> 2113.25
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2088.25 -> 2112.50
Value - 2099.75 -> 2110.25
Globex - 2108 -> 2112.50

Settlement - 2112.00

Today only - 2104.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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30th April

Last day of the month.



Still biased to the downside. FOMC day was a bit of a wash. Good volume but basically an inside day. I'm still biased to the downside but first we need to get through the Tuesday low.



As usual, if I am biased downside, I'd like to see us move up first, test a level and them move off it. Just because I feel that will bring in the most speculators. So both yesterdays range and Tuesdays range are of interest.

Tuesdays low is 88.25. We've been close to that but I'm not seeing signs that participants see that as "tested" and are now trading upside. We are mostly short overnight, so we could have an initial test up.

Once through 88.25, the next hurdle is the 81.25 and then 60.75. I would like to see us have a bit of a shake out one way or another because it's so indecisive here right now.

So biased short, would like an upside failure first and I see 88.25 as a potential place where buyers could jump in. So taking care down there. Oil has been threatening to break upside too, so that should be interesting today.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2088.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2096.50 -> 2111
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2090.50 -> 2107.75 (pit) / 2112.50 (globex)
Value - 2096 -> 2104
Globex - 2090.50 -> 2102

Settlement - 2099

Today only - 2088.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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1st May

Happy Labour Day/May Day to all the commies out there. Yes, my American friends, this is the real "labor day".

This is an ancient spring (fertility) festival that was only picked up by the socialists and communists later on.

So yes, it's Labour Day in Europe. No, it's not the US Labor day. No, we aren't all commies for having a day off....

So overnight action is thin.



Yesterday - just over 2 milion contracts traded. We got below 81.25 but couldn't hold down there.



The small white horizontal line is 88.25 - so now we are looking at that to hold. If not, we may see some buyers come on board but I am still short biased until at least 2060.



As well as the 88.25 level, keep an eye on 89.75.

Don't read too much into the Globex session. Most of Europe is busy with fertility rites. I'm looking for shorts again, preferring an upside test.

The only question today is about volatility. Yesterday was pretty wild but today we have a bunch of people on vacation, so be aware of the participation after the open. It could be a dud day.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2093.25 -> 2112.75
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2070.25 -> 2098 (pit) / 2102 (globex)
Value - 2082 -> 2096.25
Globex - 2080.50 -> 2087

Settlement - 2079

Today only - 2088.25, 2089.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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4th May



Low volume on Friday, just 1 million contracts. Holidays in Europe being one reason for that and we have holidays there today too. Notably it's a holiday in the UK, so trading from London will be thin.

Anyway - we had a short bias most of last week based on a failure to get through the highs. It looks like our failure is failing. We are moving to the highs again. Overall it looks like the range is narrowing. So for this week, I am neutral.



We are in the middle of last weeks range, which also makes us prone to sideways action.



What we do have from Friday is a late pullback to 96.75 with a single print at 96 just below it. So into the open, I am watching that. In the Globex session we have so far held Fridays Value high.

So no bias, we are potentially in a range bound area, so looking for a weekly extreme or a test of one of Fridays levels.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2091.75 -> 2112.25
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2080.50 / 2087.25 (pit) -> 2102.50
Value - 2088 -> 2098
Globex - 2098 -> 2107

Settlement - 2101.50

Today only - 2096-2096.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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5th April



Poor volume again yesterday, a million contracts. Not much at all. As you can see we made a push to the highs but fell just shorts. Going into today, I'm looking to see if sellers come in looking to take advantage of this failure and push it down. That gives us the prospect of any initial move down to

To the upside, I think it'll be choppy till we break the highs. There is always the chance that buyers push it on a break of the high.



Range-wise, we are in the middle of last weeks range, so not a great place to be for fast paced action.



We seem to be holding the late pullback, value high from yesterday, that's good for downside but also we have not managed to hold prices below yesterdays low.

We need to get out of yesterdays range, hopefully to the downside, then I can see us making a decent move.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2091.75 -> 2112.25
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2098 (globex) / 2105.50 (pit) -> 2115
Value - 2108.25 -> 2112.25
Globex - 2104.50 -> 2111.75

Settlement - 2109.25

Today only - 2112.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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6th May



Decent volume yesterday, just under 1.6 million traded. We got our push down through Tuesdays low which gave us a run as it makes the failure at the highs look a bit more 'official'.

We got to within 1 tick of our 2081.25 line. And the globex hit it to the tick. So into today it's pretty simple. We are looking to see if this level will break or hold. If it breaks we should see 2060 and longer term be looking at 2030. If not - it's up and chop again.



Looking at the weekly profile for this week and the past 4, we can see that with a bit more of a nudge down, we can escape that chop range and run a little more freely.



As well as the 81.25 level, I'll also be watching any upside move to 2097. note that 2098 was the low of Tuesday, so 2097-2098 is the approximate area that the market switches from short bias to long bias for me.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2081.25 -> 2115
Value 2091.50 -> 2115
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2081.50 -> 2109.25 / 2111.75
Value - 2081.75 -> 2097.25
Globex - 2081.25 -> 2092.50

Settlement - 2084

Today only - 2097-2098

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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7th May



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We got to within 1 tick of our 2081.25 line. And the globex hit it to the tick. So into today it's pretty simple. We are looking to see if this level will break or hold. If it breaks we should see 2060 and longer term be looking at 2030. If not - it's up and chop again.

We got to 2061.25 yesterday, a few ticks short of our 2060.75 level. Volume was good at 1.7 million and early shorts were well rewarded.

So this could be it to the downside or we could start another push down. I really don't have much between 2060 and 2030, and bigger picture, even a move to 1960 would really still be considered as a rangebound move, going back to December levels.



We can see a pullback to 2084, so that's worth noting if we do push up. The Globex session has been rotating around yesterdays close and is now below it but we are basically within yesterdays value area. It's only 4:15AM EST as of writing but that may change. If not, watching yesterdays value area for a test.

But basically, we are in more free moving area whichever way it goes. So today, I'm keeping it simple. Seeing if we get good participation on one side and trading with it.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2061.25 -> 2115
Value 2082.50 -> 2115
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 2093.75 -> 2061.25
Value - 2068.25 -> 2083.25
Globex - 2067.50 -> 2077.50

Settlement - 2074.25

Today only - 2084

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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8th May



Yesterday we clawed back most of Wednesdays down move. We didn't quite make it to Wednesdays high at 93.75, so let's watch to see what happens here.

I have no bias at this point. It's up one day and down the next. We do seem to be stuck in a 2060-2110 range with small extensions either side. As such, I'd much prefer to be trading the extreme of the range than the middle of one.

Above us is the area where we recently suffered from very choppy action.



I'd like to see a reaction at 93.75 - Wednesdays high or a move down to 80.50. In the middle, it'll be small scalps or nothing at all unless there is overwhelming participation by one side.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2057 -> 2115
Value 2058.75 -> 2098.75
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2057 (globex) / 2069.25 -> 2088.50
Value - 2077 -> 2088
Globex - 2083.50 -> 2091.25

Settlement - 2084.25

Today only - 2093.75, 2080.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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11th May



Back to the top, 1.3 million contracts traded. So once again, looking to see if we hold the tops for a move down or we pop upside.

I have no bias as to what will happen.



We can see that last week we had a slightly lower high, not that this helps us much other than tell us that this high is important.



We have held the tops in the Globex session. We held 05.25 in the Globex session and 02.50 was Fridays Pit session low. So I expect shorts to get more interested if we break that area downside. If we do push down, then we should see 2090 fairly quickly.

Upside, well that's uncharted territory but as before, there is the potential for buyers above the highs, so it's simply a matter of watching for those. If we push down to 02.50 and that holds, it gives us the chance to get long into the highs.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2057 -> 2115
Value 2061.25 -> 2101.25
S1 - 2075, R1 2128.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2083.50 (globex) / 2102.50 -> 2113.50
Value - 2108 -> 2111.50
Globex - 2105.25 -> 2110.50

Settlement - 2108.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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May 12th



Back in the choppy zone. We've gone down to 2081.25 level and had a small bounce up. If we head back to the tops, it's likely we'll have more choppy action in this narrow range. If sellers can push it down again, we should hit the 2060.75 area.



We've taken back Fridays range. I'm 100% neutral going into today. The fact we couldn't hold below 81.25 is bullish and the overnight action is almost all short, so that does give the chance of a pop up off the open - but both of those scenarios see us moving up into historically choppy prices.

I don't see any indication of what will happen. It's clear there's a lot of indecision in this market, so I'm going to sit on my hands for the first 15 minutes and see if a direction does establish itself.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2057 -> 2115
Value 2061.25 -> 2101.25
S1 - 2075, R1 2128.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2097.25 -> 2113.50
Value - 2103.25 -> 2111.25
Globex - 2079.25 -> 2101

Settlement - 2097.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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 jackbravo 
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I find your analysis to be very thoughtful and straightforward. Thanks for posting. Short bias for me under NQ 4024/ES 93

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13th May



We are still in the 2080-2110 area. It's still a choppy area. Still no overall bias for me. Waiting for 2080->2110 range to break.



Yesterday, we took a dip down overnight and then made it up in the day session. So that was fairly neutral. Basically I'm watching yesterdays range and value as well as 2093.

So once again, no bias. In a chop zone. A hold OR break of 2080 or 2110 would be good.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.25 -> 2113.50
Value 2093 -> 2110
S1 - 2075, R1 2128.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2079.25 (globex) / 2080.25 -> 2100.75
Value - 2090 -> 2099
Globex - 2095 -> 2105.75

Settlement - 2095

Today only - 2093

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Hi, Peter

Thanks for sharing your daily prep.
Can you explain a little bit of the Settlement # and Today only # for me?
Long term you mean support levels?

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15th May



We poked through the top of the range again but only in the Globex session. So it's on low volume so far. The move up to the highs yesterday (it fell short 6 ticks) had just under 1.1 million contracts traded, so the prospect of a break didn't attract volume.

Below us is a choppy zone but now we've popped the top, it's quite possible that any move down will be sustained as people will see it as a failure at the old high. So watch for participation on any move down.

To the upside, it's fresh air. We don't have any high impact news today, so nothing there to give it a nudge up. So the best chance is for us to have an obvious level to lean on and for speculators to jump on that holding.



2114 and 2007.75 look about the best potential for pullbacks. we do have the old high at 2110 also, so that gives us a wide range but these are all levels that plenty of traders will look at. If we come to one and reverse up, it could give them a bit of courage and other people (like me) will jump on if that starts a stampede, albeit a minor one.

Note also that 2119.75 was the last high from 27th March, it's not a level yet but it may become one.

So into today, no bias but we know what to look for. This new high from overnight may well attract some volume the volume in the Globex session so far is about average, so this push up doesn't even have high volume for overnight. We do have the opportunity for a clean move either way.

If I had to have a side bet, I'd say we'd move back into the range. Fortunately I don't, so I'll wait for the market to show it's hand.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.25 -> 2122.75
Value 2093 -> 2110
S1 - 2075, R1 2128.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2092 / 2103.50 (pit) > 2118.25
Value - 2103.75-> 2115.25
Globex - 2116 -> 2122.75

Settlement - 2117.50

Today only - 2107.75, 2114

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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18th May



On Friday, we were looking for signs of the high being resolved one way or the other. What we got was a very small range and low volume. There's not much interest up here. My bias is still towards reverting back to the range, but either side could in theory jump on a break.



To the downside, we can see that below 2110 we have thicker trading in the weeks value area, this has been a thick area generally so it could be choppy to the downside. On the other hand, a move down could be seen as a failure at the highs. So it's a tough one to predict, even in terms of volatility below us.

To the upside, fresh air but we need participation and it has pretty much disappeared after the break.



Below us the 2106-2108 area from last week is interesting. If that holds, we should see some more buying interest.

So going into today - I am neutral. I expect it to chop around. Possibly all week. It's possible we need to trade this area, build positions and then have power for a break. I do favor the downside though but I want to see decent volume before I take more than a very short term position.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.25 -> 2122.75
Value 2090 -> 2112
S1 - 2091.25, R1 2134.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2113.25 -> 2120.50 / 2122.75
Value - 2114.50-> 2118
Globex - 2112.25 -> 2120.75

Settlement - 2119

Today only - 2006-2008,

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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19th May



We can see price is rising but volume and volatility is moving down. Yesterdays volume was just 909 thousand contracts. Very low.



Obviously, you can't stay married to an opinion. My opinion is that we'll return to the range - but it is just that, an opinion or a bias. I don't feel this move up is sustainable but I could of course be wrong. So whilst I don't buy into the move, I better still look for places that might give buyers confidence to get in. Or I'm gonna be sitting on my ass umptions and not doing anything.



We still have the value area from last week and a huge step int he profile around 2110.25 - which is one of our long term levels. With the current volatility, we may not get that low but a hold there would make for a more confident buy.



A bit closer to where we are is 2122.75 and yesterdays VAL. A pullback to there and a push up would also be something I'd expect people to jump on.

So, I am expecting these highs to fail but I will join moves to the upside, especially if we get a decent downside test as I believe that will give people a bit more confidence to participate.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.25 -> 2122.75
Value 2090 -> 2112
S1 - 2091.25, R1 2134.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2112.25 / 2116.25 (pit) -> 2128.75
Value - 2119.75-> 2128.75
Globex - 2125.50 -> 2133.75

Settlement - 2126

Today only - 2122.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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20th May



Still climbing on low volume, yesterday a million contracts traded. We were looking for a hold for continuation up and one of our levels was 2122.75 and we held at 2122.25 for a push 2130.25.

We didn't make it to the overnight high and then we broke 2122.25 on the way down.



The Globex session is so far within yesterdays range. To many people this will look like a top, so I suspect that if we can break yesterdays low, then we would see some more participation in a downside move. The daily candlesticks are also what people might call "toppy". So we do have potential for lots of different people to all come to the same conclusion, albeit for different reasons.

The weeks low is 2112.25, if we get to that point and it holds, then it's probably going to be another dull day.

To the upside, I think we really need to hold yesterdays low to bring in any decent participation but even then I think it'd be quite poor.

So let's hope for a break of yesterdays low and for people to see that as a bearish sign. We need some more volume to come in for some decisive moves.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2134
Value 2119.25 -> 2132.75
S1 - 2091.25, R1 2134.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2121.25 -> 2130.25 / 2134
Value - 2123.50 -> 2127.50
Globex - 2121.75 -> 2136.75

Settlement - 2124.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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21st May



Volume still around 1 million and we've stopped making progress to the upside. Still, we've not seen sellers jump in yet.



We can see that we have a few old highs to the left and perhaps sellers are not convinced until those are broken to the downside. Yesterday I was looking for a break of 2122.75 to see sellers come in with the potential of is stopping at 2112.25. We really didn't see sellers come in at 2122.75 but I'm still looking at 2112.25 as a potential failure of a down move.



We had a big push up in the afternoon yesterday that failed. So today we'll look for that 2121.50 area to hold from below. That should give sellers a bit of confidence to jump in.

As it is - it's low confidence either way. It looks like the highs are failing but there's no interest in selling yet. I'm left guessing at where the "line in the sand" is that gets sellers involved.

Perhaps the real line in the sand is the June Fed announcement and whether they will adjust interest rates or not. If so, we can expect more of the same for a few weeks.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2134
Value 2118.25 -> 2129.75
S1 - 2091.25, R1 2134.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2119.25 -> 2132.25
Value - 2121.50 -> 2126.50
Globex - 2115 -> 2122.75

Today 2112.25, 2121.50

Settlement - 2122.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Bank holiday in London today & a Memorial day in the USA.

So it's not worth trading today in my opinion.

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26th May 2015



Low volumes still....

The 'story' right now is that funds are pulling money from US stocks but they seem to be going up anyway - U.S. stock prices defy fund flow rules - MarketWatch - the 'reason' given in this article is that companies are propping up their own share prices. Personally, I'm a bit skeptical about that explanation.

According to Bank of America, fund outflows from US Equity funds were $8.5 billion in the 2nd week of may and total $107 billion out flows in 17 of the past 20 weeks.

It's a bit of an odd thing to do - spend all your cash to prop up your share price but if that is what is happening - we might have an interesting 2nd half of the year.

Anyway - something to keep in mind on your next 2 tick scalp



Last week a narrow, evenly distributed, low volume range. First order of this week is to escape that, otherwise we will have choppy action within it. We did have a few decent breaks last week but it really was a matter of waiting for the 'break of the day' and not much else on the table if you missed that.



Today I'm watching Fridays low 2122.75 as well as 2115. If 2115 breaks, look out for participation coming in to give us a move, similarly if 2122.75 holds. I'd expect shorts to come in.

I'm not looking at daily levels today as yesterday was a holiday and above Fridays low we'll most likely chop about anyway.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2134
Value 2121.75 -> 2131.50
S1 - 2113.25, R1 2135

Daily Numbers
Range - N/A
Value - N/A
Globex - 2115.25 -> 2127

Today 2115, 2122.75

Settlement - N/A

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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27th May



We finally got the participation we were looking for. Just under 1.6 million contracts. Not a huge day but decent participation. So we see a little confidence in the market now.



We got through the 2115 & 2110.25 levels and managed to stay below them. Today we look for follow through. Everyone will be aware that of late, we've had pushes down that have faded to nothing. So we need to be wary of that too. I still think June FOMC is what people are waiting and an interest rate decision. So just be on the look out for interest waning.

In terms of where we are going, hard to day but even 2030 would not be a huge pullback, it'd just put us back to the low of the range we have been in all year.



On the weekly profile we can see the clean break from 2115 down to 2108. We could move back up through there just as fast as we dropped as there's not many positions there. I would like to see us stay below 2115 and not work our way back through last weeks range, that's choppy action there in my opinion.



In the Globex session, yesterdays value high has held which is basically marking out the range after the drop. So I'm watching 2106 and 2115.25 for sellers to defend. Above 2115 it's probably going to be a chopfest. Keep an eye on 81.25 - we don't want that to hold.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2134
Value 2121.75 -> 2131.50
S1 - 2113.25, R1 2135

Daily Numbers

Range - 2096 -> 2119.25 (pit) / 2124.50 (globex)
Value - 2097 -> 2106
Globex - 2101.25 -> 2106.25

Today 2115-2115.25, 2106

Settlement - 2105

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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28th May



1.3 million traded yesterday and we took back all the move down from Tuesday. Perhaps this rejection of the lows will give buyers confidence this time round or perhaps we are going have a repeat of last weeks activities at these highs.



If we do work our way up, we should expect fairly choppy indecisive action up to 32. With the possibility of a run if we break that. This flies in the face of recent history but it's always something to consider at a high.



Below us, the 2110.25 level is interesting as a line in the sand. I'd like to see another push down. As there is more volatility likely in that direction.

So fingers crossed for a push down, expect shop up to 32 and maybe a run at new highs if we can get up there again.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2096 -> 2127
Value 2105.50 -> 2126
S1 - 2113.25, R1 2135

Daily Numbers
Range - 2101.25 (globex) / 2102.5 (pit) -> 2124.25
Value - 2110.50-> 2121.50
Globex - 2115.25 -> 2121.75

Settlement - 2121

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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29th May



Last day of the month and last day of a fairly narrow week. We can see above how that range has been narrowing.

We held the 2110.25 level yesterday, or shy of it 1 tick.

It is common for a range week like this to break on the Thursday or Friday, so today my plan is to watch for the break and if not, fade whatever range forms.



We can see the high of the last 2 days is 2124.25, so a reversal off that, or yesterdays high in the pit session would be a good signal for sellers to jump in. Below us is the 2110.25, again a break of that might be what will give confidence for people to short.

Volume has been dropping through the week and for a decent break, we need to see some decent volume come into the market.

The one scenario we don't want to see is more rangebound behavior but if the market is waiting for a decision in interest rates in June FOMC, that is what we'll most likely see.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2096 -> 2127
Value 2112 -> 2126
S1 - 2113.25, R1 2135

Daily Numbers
Range - 2110.50 -> 2122.25
Value - 2111.75-> 2117.75
Globex - 2112 -> 2122.75

Settlement - 2121.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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1st June



Decent volume on Friday, just under 1.7m and a push down but we didn't crack the low of the week. So looking above it still looks like we are caught in the range.



zooming in it appears the range is narrowing, we cracked 10.25 to the downside & we did close below it.



Looking at last weeks profile, I'd be looking for us to get below 2102 before any serious selling and for the upside to be choppy because it'll be back into that thin range we've had.



Friday did start with a good push down. After the push down we made it back up to 2115. As before the 10.25 hasn't held in the Globex session, so far we've just tested up to that push up and failed to make it there. We are now sitting inside Fridays value area and the Globex session is pretty neutral.

I'm looking for a test of 2115 into the open but also aware that this has happened once and the push down could start at any time and so I'll be ready to jump on if we do move down from here. 2102 is a hurdle we need to overcome and I will be looking for acceleration if we break it and a potential move to 2081.25.

Upside is just taking bites out in my opinion. It's been tough up there so far. Although I guess a move up off 2102 area could see us get a run up to 2110 before we start moving sideways.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2096 -> 2127
Value 2109 -> 2126
S1 - 2093.25, R1 2121.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2102.25 -> 2118.75 (pit) / 2122.75
Value - 2104.50 -> 2113
Globex - 2105.50 -> 2114

Settlement - 2106
Today only - 2102, 2115

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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2nd June



Yesterday we had a line in the sand at 2102 and were looking for sellers at 2115. We pushed down to 2100.25 before buyers came in and then up to 2117 till sellers came in. The Globex session has seen a big sell but from a the pit session perspective we are still very much in range and just had a couple of probes yesterday.

So the key today is seeing if we can sustain these lows from Globex of if the pit session claims them all back.



I am still interested in us staying below 2102, so looking at that level today to see if we can hold it as we go into the pit session.



It was a bit messy yesterday after the bounce off 2100.25. We can see the move down has been swift, I'd prefer us to build some volume here into the Globex session for us to lean on as we open into the pit session. What I don't want to see is news pushing us back up to the middle of yesterdays value area.

A short of yesterdays low or VAL would be interesting. I could see us making 2081.25 if we do get another push down and I'd expect plenty of downside participation if we do push down again.

As the overnight session is overwhelmingly short, there is a good chance of an initial push up off the open. That in itself will not put me off shorting. Moving above yesterdays VAL will make me less inclined to short.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2096 -> 2127
Value 2109 -> 2126
S1 - 2093.25, R1 2121.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2100.25 -> 2117.75
Value - 2105.50 -> 2115.50
Globex - 2094 -> 2112.75

Settlement - 2109.25

Today only - 2102

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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3rd June



Back up again yesterday. No directional conviction.



This weeks profile is already very balanced, in fact it's probably quite beautiful from a market profile traders perspective. This sort of market tends to suck in the middle but the extremes can be good fade trades.



We are getting breaks off the open but then having to sit through some chop for a while. So yesterday we had a move down, a swift move back up then 2 hours in a 5 point range, then a break. Then it ranged for 2 hours again and broke down.

So for a decent sized trade, we need to be in off the open or stay focused for the range to break. Other than that it's range fading whilst we stay in this weeks range. there is always a chance of a break out of this weeks range but I'm not going to be focusing on that today, rather I'm going to play the short game.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2094 -> 2117.75
Value 2104.25 -> 2112.75
S1 - 2093.25, R1 2121.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2100.25 -> 2117.75
Value - 2093.75 (globex) 2096.25 / > 2116
Globex - 2106 -> 2112.50

Settlement - 2106.75


Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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4th June

\

Range is narrowing, volume around 1.2 Million - a bit on the low side.



Not much to say about this profile, it's very pretty. Obviously we like trading in this area. So the value traders game plan is to fade the extremes. The more time we spend here, the more tricky trading will be in the value area.



Saying that, we could break at any time. Overnight we have held yesterdays value high and the failed attempt at the low of the day. If either hold, it could help us to run through the other side. Although it's not what you would call a high probability trade.

So into the open - looking for an initial push, then expecting consolidation, which will be tough trading and then maybe another push. I'll be focused on trying to get something early and then to be done for the day.


Weekly Numbers

Range 2094 -> 2120.75
Value 2106.25 -> 2115.25
S1 - 2093.25, R1 2121.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2106 / 2107.25 (pit) -> 2120.75
Value - 2110.50 -> 2116.50
Globex - 2109.50 -> 2116.50

Settlement - 2116

Today only - 2109

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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8th June



We had another push downside on Friday but close just slightly below the open in the end. We got as low as 83.50 and we have a level at 81.25. Today we are looking to see if we are now done to the downside.



We also have last weeks low to break. Anything above 2100 and we are really looking at the more choppy zone again.



Of the open, I'll be watching 88.25 and Fridays value high 95.25, if either of those hold from below, I think we could see sellers have the confidence to push us thru 81.25 which has us looking at 2060 and then 2030.

Of course, the market has really not liked the downside much of late. So we also have to be aware of any downside reference points that hold. As usual the downside is more attractive as we haven't traded there so much of late and so we should move more freely down there. Up above is chop till we can really break new highs.

With interest rate hike indecision, the "new highs" might be more whimper than bang though.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2083.40 -> 2120.75
Value 2099.75 -> 2116.25
S1 - 2078, R1 2114.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2083.50 -> 2099.75 / 2102.75
Value - 2090.25 -> 2095.25
Globex - 2086.50 -> 2093.25

Settlement - 2092.25

Today only - 2088.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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9th June



We got through the 81.25 level yesterday and so now we are looking for signs that buyers will come in or of a continued move down to 2060.75. We have moved enough below 81.25 that it should really hold it's own now.



Anything above 91.75 sees us eating into thicker areas on last weeks profile and I think then we have probably failed to the downside.



A little lower down, we have the late pullback from yesterday at 86.25. Again, that seems a way off and 81.25 is the first point above us we should look for a test. Obviously overnight is very short and so there could be an initial move up off the open.

So first order off the day is yesterdays low, then value low, then 81.25. If any of those hold then we have a very good chance that sellers will jump in for a push down.

Obviously, we cannot ignore that of late, we've had a hard time holding the down moves. I have no levels below till 60.75 but I'm wary of any strong move up off the open. A swift reaction to the overnight move is OK but if a high volume push up comes in off the open is not what I want to see.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2083.40 -> 2120.75
Value 2099.75 -> 2116.25
S1 - 2078, R1 2114.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2067.25 -> 2092 / 2093 (globex)
Value - 2080.50 -> 2088.50
Globex - 2068.75 -> 2082.75

Settlement - 2078.25

Today only - 2091.75, 2086.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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10th June



Looking at the daily chart, I expect a lot of people will be looking at the candlestick from yesterday and thinking that this is now done to the downside.



We can see that we are back above the 2081.25 line and we've tested it in the Globex session. Another test there will give buyers confidence.



As per yesterday, anything above 91.75 sees us eating into last weeks profile but failure there should give the sellers a little confidence.



Overall yesterday we made up just a little ground to the upside compared to the prior day. The Globex session is so far mostly long which can mean a push down off the open.

So I'm neutral. On one hand we've had a hard time maintaining any moves down of late. On the other, with he daily chart looking the way it does, it would be a good chance to sucker in buyers.

Into the open - my upside references are 91.25 and below I'm looking at yesterdays value area. Overall I'm neutral though and hoping we can reach a near reference to give one side a but of confidence. Obviously if everyone feels like me, we won't go anywhere fast!

Weekly Numbers
Range 2068.75 -> 2093.25
Value 2074.25 -> 2088.25
S1 - 2078, R1 2114.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2068.75 (globex) / 2070.75 (pit) -> 2084.75
Value - 2076.25 -> 2082.75
Globex - 2080 -> 2089.25

Settlement - 2080

Today only - 2091.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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11th June



A good move up yesterday and now moving down in the Globex session. I'd have expected a pop up through 2110 before the range failing.

So, I'm expecting an additional move up but I can't say I'm supremely confident & we do have unemployment numbers today.




We have a consolidation area above 2102.50, so that's the line in the sand for me today - a break away from it then failure to get back to it would make a fairly obvious continuation trade.

BUT

It's rollover time. Which often means directionless trading and for an order flow trader like me, it means a lot of order flow going on that's just moving positions from one contract the other. There are times when it does surprise us, so it's still worth clocking in for the first hour.

Right now we have about 25% of volume in the September contract. So for now, I'm still trading June.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2068.75 -> 2108
Value 2075.75 -> 2092.25
S1 - 2078, R1 2114.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2080 (globex) / 2086.75 (pit) -> 2108
Value - 2098.75 -> 2107.75
Globex - 2103.25 -> 2107.50

Settlement - 2107

Today only - 2102.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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12th June



As of now, September contract has overtaken June in terms of volume. For the past few years, it's been taking longer & longer to do the roll. Yesterday the volume was moving to the new month noticeably faster than normal. Go back to 2010 and you'd see most of the volume in the new month by lunchtime. The upshot is the Friday after the roll has been a crappy trade because the roll was still in progress.

So today, I'd normally not trade today but I'll start the day as I think we may be over the bulk of the roll.



We are at a point in which we could now roll over or we could now push up through the 2102.50 level to run at the highs.



Looking at the profile, we can see that we don't have much trading below 95.25, so if we can break that, we have a good chance of a move to 85.



Again, it's clear here how the 95.25 level is going to be on a lot of people's minds. So I'm watching for that to test or break into the open and then jump in if we see some participation.

Of course, this could be a slow day, so if we don't see some moves by 10:30am EST, I'll be done.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2061 -> 2106.75
Value 2074 -> 2106.75


Daily Numbers
Range - 2095.50 / 2097.50 (pit) -> 2106.75
Value - 2100.25 -> 2103.75
Globex - 2094.75 -> 2102.50

Settlement - 2101.50

Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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15th June



The range is narrowing and whilst it was a bearish Friday, we could now be done to the downside and on our way up to the top of the narrowing range, or we break through 73.50 and make our way to 56.75 but beyond that it's going to be more luck than judgement.

Perhaps the new contract will give us some direction but into today, I'm biased neutral.



The lower distribution from last weeks bottoms out around 2070.75, so it could be we hit that and then turn up.



Fridays lows got tested a couple of times and now so far in the Globes we've stayed below that, so we obviously need to have an eye on that as well as 2088.25 which is around the top of the PM range.

So I'm fairly neutral, looking for something to be tested first. I'd prefer that to be a test of Fridays lows for a move down to prices we haven't traded for a while. A bit like hoping for rain that.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2061 -> 2106.75
Value 2075.25 -> 2104.25
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2082 -> 2101.50 / 2106.75 (globex)
Value - 2086.50 -> 2100.50
Globex - 2072 -> 2081.50

Today Only - 2070.75, 2088.25
Settlement - 2085

Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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16th June



Good volume yesterday and we did manage to maintain the down move that we'd made overnight and closed lower than Friday. But we still ended up slightly higher on the day. So as per yesterdays prep - still waiting to see if we can start moving down or if this is the bottom of what is becoming an ever narrowing range.



I'll be looking at Fridays low and yesterdays afternoon low - 2082 & 2072.50 respectively. So those are the areas I'm interested in.

As usual, I WANT this market to move down and shrug off this range. So a test of 72.50 or yesterdays VAL would be a good opportunity. Of course, if we can't make it down past yesterdays low and we start to climb, I'll be expecting us to head to 2102.50 and possible for that to be as high as we get - basically just perpetuating this range until the FOMC tomorrow.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2061 -> 2106.75
Value 2075.25 -> 2104.25
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2062.75 -> 2079.50 / 2081.50 (globex)
Value - 2071.50 -> 2078.50
Globex - 2062 -> 2076

Today Only - 2082, 2072/50
Settlement - 2075.50

Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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17th June



FOMC today, which typically means a slow AM - but just as you expect certain things to happen, then they change. So over the past 12 months, we've seen a few very active FOMC mornings. So I think it's a case of taking the day off or just having a peek for the first hour to see if anything interesting is happening.

If the FOMC doesn't shake things up, then I'll be looking for us to poke through 02.50 and then to start heading back down again. This is based on the narrowing range we seem to be in. Obviously it's better for us if it doesn't roll over then and instead heads up to the highs again.



Not really much to say about this but watch yesterdays high and value area as we open. A swift pull back to either on the open gives us a long to the range high.

But let's keep it short & sweet as it is FOMC day and all bets are off pretty much.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2096.50
Value 2066.25 -> 2079.75
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2062 (globex) / 2072 (pit) -> 2089.25
Value - 2078.25 -> 2088.75
Globex - 2088.50 -> 2096.50

Settlement - 2089

Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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 trendisyourfriend 
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DionysusToast View Post
17th June

...
Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

You might want to check your rollover results. The long term 2126.75 level should display 2126.25 if ajusted. Not a big deal though.



BTW, thanks for your analysis.

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Thanks for that .25 it is? I appreciate you pointing that out.

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18th June



FOMC didn't help us much, so I still see us as being in a narrowing range.

So I really have no bias right now.



We do have unemployment numbers and that could give us a shake out - as well as Philly Fed at 10am. Going into today, all I'll be watching is yesterdays range and value area.

I just thing we've traded this area so much over the past few months there's going to be lots of opinions either way so a nice obvious test of yesterdays high would, in my opinion, give us the best chance of a the herd running in the same direction.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2062 -> 2098.75
Value 2075 -> 2095.50
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2078.75 (pit) -> 2098.75
Value - 2085.75-> 2096.75
Globex - 2082 -> 2094.75

Settlement - 2089.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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19th June



We are no longer in a narrowing range, which is good news. So now expectation is that we test the highs. If the highs hold, then we'd have an initial target of 02.50 and then 73.50. Upside is all trading into fresh areas, so I have no targets.

In terms of the "why" behind any up move, all that comes to mind is that interest rates didn't raise in June FOMC, which isn't much of a "why" considering they have committed to raise then this year.

So from a logical or economical point of view, there is no reason for us to hit new highs. There is little logic behind the markets, so anything can happen. I'm just a bit dubious about the upside.

Still - people have been calling a dollar crash since the mid 90's - so I reckon it's probably best not to marry an opinion.



We have 2 reference points of interest today 2100 and 2098.75. If 2100 breaks with participation we should see 2098.75 at least. If either hold, I'll be looking for buyer participation to join.

Basically, highs or lows - any prices we haven't traded in the past few months would be nice.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2119.25
Value 2071.50 -> 2096.50
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2082 (globex) / 2097 -> 2119.25
Value - 2109-> 2117
Globex - 2111 -> 2117.25

Settlement - 2114.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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22nd June



Volume came off on Friday and it was inside Thursdays range and so far overnight we are also in Thursdays range. Question today is do we drive to the tops or are we now done and tested the upside?



The zoomed in chart doesn't add much more today, nor does the weekly profile (omitted). We have home sales at 10am which may help bring clarity but looking left there's plenty of choppy action.



We can see Thursdays range was 2119.25-2097 in the pit session. So I'm looking to play off that as well a looking at Fridays high/value area but that is secondary. So ideal scenario would be a test of Thursdays range as I feel more people will be looking at that. If Fridays high holds from above, it is a long opportunity but a lesser one.

If volume doesn't pick up then we could well stay in Thursdays range for a few days with only small chunks on the table. That will be my presumption until we test one of Thursdays extremes.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2119.25
Value 2067 -> 2096.50
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2097.25 -> 2111.50 / 2117.25
Value - 2104 -> 2111.50
Globex - 2103.50 -> 2114.75

Settlement - 2097.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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23rd June



We made a slight gain yesterday, but it was a fairly choppy day. Again, the question is are we done to the upside now?



Yesterday we were looking at Fridays range 2097-2119.25. We did pop through the top and then fall back into the range. The Globex session is within yesterdays range so far, so we have no clues as to whether we will see continuation down or not, although it is possible that Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 am EST might help to resolve that.

Into today, I'm still watching the 19.25 as well as yesterdays range and the late PM pullback to 2117.50. Again, just looking for clues as to the mood when we get there. Yesterday we were considering the potential of staying within Thursdays range for a few days and whilst we did poke up through the range yesterday, it couldn't stick so that possibility is still on the table.

Whilst it's a tricky one to call at this point, we are near the extremes, so the chances of an early test are favorable..

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2119.25
Value 2067 -> 2096.50
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2103.50 / 2111.25 -> 2122
Value - 2112.75 -> 2117.75
Globex - 2113.25 -> 2120.50

Settlement - 2112.75

Today only - 2097, 2119.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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24th June



Chop chop. GDP today - might shake us from this malaise. If not, don't expect much.



Looking at this weeks profile, we can see it's very easily distributed. So fading the top/bottom of the range and staying out of trades in the middle is the trade until we see participation increase to get us out of the range.



I'd say that anything above 2120.50 is opportunity to fade. We have consistently poked above Fridays high of 19.25 but not managed to sustain it. We've also had 2 consecutive days with the same day session low. There's a trading adage that says "if the market tries to do something a few times and fails, it'll do the opposite". Trouble is, the market has tried to push the highs and lows and failed.

So today, I'm thinking that if we push to 2120, it'll be a good fade to 11.25. If 11.25 breaks, I think we have a good chance of making it to 97. I don't have much hope of a push above 2120, so I feel more inclined to fade that than the 11.25.

If we open in the middle of the range, then we need to be patient. I don't think that playing off yesterdays value area is a good trade today as that too much of a mid range trade.

The ideal trade is no trade until the range breaks and participation increases. Until then it's smaller trades, tight stops, more scratches and potentially sitting through long periods of time with the price hanging around your entry price not doing much.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2103.50 -> 2122
Value 2113 -> 2118
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2111.25 -> 2120.25 (pit) / 2120.60 (globex)
Value - 2112.75 -> 2116.75
Globex - 2113.50 -> 2118.50

Settlement - 2108.75

Today only - 2097

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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25th July



We pushed down through our longer term level at 2102.50 - yesterday but in the overnight session we've moved back up again. So into today, the first order of the day will be to see if those gains can hold into the day session. If not, then we can expect more choppy action as we continue up to test the weeks high.



We are still sitting in Fridays range and that's been holding us all week. Early on in the week we chopped around the high of that range and we may now well chop around the bottom of it. We do have employment numbers out today, which might give us the push we are looking for. I expect a break of 2097 to give us additional volatility.

As you can see we have pushed up overnight but we've stalled at yesterdays VAH, so we could now be done to the upside and continue down now that we have failed to breach the VAH.

The PM range from yesterday after the move down has a high of 2105.50 and I'll be watching a test of that area. If we test it from above and it holds, then we could see us take back the move down from yesterday. Quite often after a down day like that we'll simply take it all back the next. I think anything above 2114 will be choppy.

So today I'll be looking for tests on any pushes down to give us potential to get to yesterdays high. To the downside, I really want to see 2097 to break before getting too excited about any moves down.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2099 -> 2122
Value 2110 -> 2119.50
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2099 -> 2117.50 (pit) / 2118.50 (globex)
Value - 2101.50 -> 2112.50
Globex - 2099.50 -> 2112.50

Settlement - 2099.50

Today only - 2097, 2105.50

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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26th July



Today, I'm looking for continued downside to take us towards 2073.50 and possibly 56.75 to complete a full downside test of the range.

If it stalls here, then I think it's more indecision and that makes for more choppy action.



As you can see, we broke through last Fridays low of 2097, poked back through it and failed to stay above and then worked our way back to the days low.

So into today, I'm looking for 2097-2099 area to provide resistance and if a test there does fail, for us to see plenty of sellers come and join the move.

So far the Globex session is neutral & we have to consider that 2097 has been tested from below, so we may not see a test today but we may just see a push down.

Of course, the market could go up, and any thing above 2099, I'll consider that the shorts are off the table but I'm not so interested in longs below 2099 as I'll be presuming it's a test.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2090.50 -> 2122
Value 2104.50 -> 2119
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2092 -> 2107.75 (pit) / 2112.75 (globex)
Value - 2097.50 -> 2107.50
Globex - 2090.50 -> 2095.25

Settlement - 2094

Today only - 2097,2099

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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29th June



Well, this is a hopeful sign we'll have decent volatility today. Of course, there have been many days in the past where those pesky Europeans have had all the fun but we have a decent gap down and are now in territory that should not be as choppy as those prices above. We've dipped through the 56.75 level and we are between that and the 73.50 level.

If this is all based on Greece, then it might not last but certainly I'll be watching the 73.50 level into the open to see if we can hold below it.



Based on last weeks profile, we don't have any serious trading till we get up to 2091, so below that I think we still have chance of downside continuation and of volatility. Above 91 and I think we'll move more slowly.



There's a couple of ways to look at gaps - in this case you could look at the low of Friday to the high of the Globex session. So that leaves us with a gap close at 86.25 and of course lots of people will be watching that level.

So into today, looking for continuation down & if we don't get it, watching 73.50, 86.25 and 91. There's plenty of room for trades both sides going into today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2086.25 -> 2122
Value 2101 -> 2119
S1 - 2080.75, R1 - 2116.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2086.25 -> 2100.75
Value - 2091 -> 2097.50
Globex - 2054 -> 2079

Settlement - 2095.75

Today only - 2091

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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30th June



Thank you Greece, I'd forgotten what volatility looked like.



Over 2 million traded yesterday and we went up and down but mostly down in the day session. So far overnight we are in a holding pattern, so today looking for continuation or a "snap back" if everyone thinks that was an overreaction.



We have taken out the 56.75 level but then came back above it, so that's our first task today, to get below there. Or fail to and head back up. But it's an area that will take some volume to push through.



Yesterday was a good day in a couple of respects - we first pushed down to 72.50 the bottom of the high volume area in the overnight volume profile. Then we came back and tested the open price from above and it held. So 2 excellent long opportunities. We failed to close the gap and then sellers took control. So in terms of bigger picture play, it was a good day of the ES playing to it's personality.

There really isn't much from yesterday to play off other than the lows. The value area on an elongated day is usually useless but after a big down day we often get a snap back up or continuation starting early on. We do also have days where the market seems to be in "shock" and just sits in a tight range after a big day but these are the exception and if that is the case, it should be evident fairly early on.



This is yesterdays action, the shift in delta was on the high side - almost 50k from high to low - not massive but still significant and the volume was predominantly to the downside.

Anyway, another few days like this and we can crack open the Ouzo. Next level down 2023.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2086.25 -> 2122
Value 2101 -> 2119
S1 - 2080.75, R1 - 2116.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2047.25 -> 2083.25
Value - 2053.50 -> 2076.50
Globex - 2049.50 -> 2069

Settlement - 2050.50


Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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No prep today - not sure what happened but Snag It or any other screen capture tool causes all my screens to go black the moment I try to do a capture.

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Maybe this can help:


“Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the whole aim and end of human existence.” Δ

“There is no path, but only a fool wouldn’t follow it.”
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2nd July



We are still within Mondays range, so whilst it does look like we are headed back up off a failed move through the 56.75 level, I still have an open mind about the possibility of a failure at/before Mondays low and for us to end the week lower.



Which means today is pretty simple. We have yesterdays overnight high and Mondays high above as lines in the sand and below we have yesterdays value area and the low as potential support. So I'll be happy to go long into Mondays high as long as we get a move down to a level first. I think if Mondays high holds, we have great downside potential.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2046.75 -> 2083.25
Value 2058 -> 2075.50
S1 - 2080.75, R1 - 2116.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2054.25 (globex) / 2059.75 -> 2074.50 / 2077.50 (globex)
Value - 2062.50 -> 2070
Globex - 2067.50 -> 2076.25

Settlement - 2071


Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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3rd July - Happy Independence Day - no trading for me as it's a half day.

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7th July

My apologies for lack of prep yesterday, I was having PC issues...



Taramasalata Market.

Obviously the market is all over the place with the Greece issue remaining very much unresolved. At any point we can get sideswiped with news that will cause a reaction (or an overreaction). With this in mind, we really need the market to settle down in order to come up with any predictive scenarios. So today, I'm going to just watch it play out. I'll still trade, with an ear to to the news squawk and look to enter smaller positions and scale in if I see it running one way.

So the volatility is nice but I would like to work my way into the right side of it and be fairly free of the risk of an unannounced news event - like the Greek PM wearing a tie.

So for today, I don't have any levels other than 2079. I don't like to lean to much on the activity of holidays & heavy news driven days as to me, they don't really represent repeatable behavior.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2046.75 -> 2083.25
Value 2060.25 -> 2075.25
S1 - 2048 R1 - 2084.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2034.25 (globex) / 2049.25 -> 2070.50
Value - 2054.25 -> 2064.75
Globex - 2064.50 -> 2078

Settlement - 2064.50

Today only - 2079

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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8th July



As expected an interesting day yesterday. I had my news squawk on waiting for news on Greece but had to turn it off because there was nothing but news about Greece and this is a squawk (financial juice) that is normally fairly quiet intraday.

I guess we do seem to be marking out a range 2034.25-2079, so I'm watching as that develops. What was very interesting yesterday was that although expectation was it'd be really wild and my plan was initially to scale into a trade. We moved down off the 9:30am open, they came back up to the open and just couldn't get there, then the market took a nosedive.

So the failure at the open, which is a pretty 'ordinary' trade, was still up for grabs on what was an extraordinary day. So that's food for thought to take into today.



Trying to pick tops and bottoms in this market is very risky and there's plenty of room in trades after the reversal. So once again, my plan is to not really be looking at any specific price levels other than the 34.25/79 levels and just try to get in with a small position and build up. If the market does what it did yesterday on a re-test of the open, then I'll of course fade that full size. But my plan is the same as yesterday - it's a risky day that could put in a major move any time on unexpected news.

So first and foremost - capital preservation is on my mind.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2034.25 -> 2078
Value 2046.75 -> 2070.75
S1 - 2048 R1 - 2084.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2035 -> 2076.25 (day) / 2078 (overnight)
Value - 2039.74-> 2063.75
Globex - 2042.25-> 2074.75

Settlement - 2073.75

Today only - 2079

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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9th July



More of the same. It is wild but we do seem to be bracketed between 2034.25-2079 still. Although I wouldn't fade either but would play a continuation off a reversal off either. So into today, we appear to have failed to get to 34.25, so it's not unreasonable to expect us to traverse to 2079.

But it's a news driven unpredictable market that could get whacked either way any time.



Overnight we've stayed in yesterdays day session range, so we should pay attention to those extremes. I'm looking for signs of the market settling down. So eyes on volume today, if we see lower volume, we can expect more normal behavior, if it's still high, we have to expect the wild swings.

As per the rest of this week, in these conditions, I can't really go in with scenarios in mind. It has NOT been unfriendly intraday so far, so I am just going to play off intraday moves - fails at the open (2 days in a row that has worked) etc.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2034.25 -> 2078
Value 2042 -> 2063
S1 - 2048 R1 - 2084.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2036.25 -> 2061.75 (day) / 2074.75 (overnight)
Value - 2043 > 2055.50
Globex - 2038.50-> 2061.25

Settlement - 2039.25

Today only - 2079

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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10th July



For todays prep, I should probably just put "see yesterday". We are still working within the the 34.25-79.00 range. So today I'll be watching that range as well as yesterdays range.



Three days in a row we've had tests of the open price give us good entries. Yesterday was a test of the overnight high, then a push thru the open price then we tried to get back to the open but failed and the market took a dive from there.

So whilst it is wide and rangey, it's behaving nicely. Today we have a nice push up overnight which is similar to what we did overnight the prior day and then the market sold off. So we may not see the 34.25-79 extremes but it's worth watching the open & other usual levels for failures.

We need to break out at some point but it could just be a (relatively) lazy Friday because even if we don't break out, we could still have a great range.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2034.25 -> 2078
Value 2044 -> 2064
S1 - 2048 R1 - 2084.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2038.50 (overnight) / 2039.5 (day) -> 2068
Value - 2048 > 2062.50
Globex - 2038.25-> 2066.25

Settlement - 2041.25

Today only - 2034.25, 2079

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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13th July



Looks like the sky is no longer falling in. Looks like Greece and Europe have come to an agreement but we still have a very high risk of intraday news coming in and rapidly moving the markets. So for now bias is up.



Our ideal scenario would be a downside test for a long. Two areas come to mind. The 2078-2079 area that would represent a retest of the range high of the past 8 trading days. That does look a little close to where we are, considering current volatility. So also looking at Fridays high/value high. Below that, I'll be looking for shorts.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2034.25 -> 2078
Value 2043.50 -> 2065,50
S1 - 2043.75 R1 - 2085


Daily Numbers
Range - 2038.25 (overnight) / 2059.50 -> 2074.75
Value - 2065.50 > 2072
Globex - 2052 -> 2087.50

Settlement - 2069

Today only - 2078-2079

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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14th July



A bug push up out of the range yesterday, so looking for continuation upwards. Still with an eye on 78-79 for support (the high of last weeks range) if we do come back down.



All the fun yesterday was had in the overnight session, with a narrow intraday range. We moved down to 2084 off the open which was the top of the closest cluster of volume from overnight.

We can see that the overnight range is very small. We can see potential support at 2086 but we could be heading into a summertime chop day unless we get some news to drive it.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2034.25 -> 2078
Value 2043.50 -> 2065,50
S1 - 2043.75 R1 - 2085


Daily Numbers
Range - 2052 (overnight) / 2084 -> 2094.75
Value - 2086.75 -> 2091.25
Globex - 2091.50 -> 2095.25

Settlement - 2094.50

Today only - 2078-2079, 2086

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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15th July



Volume and volatility dropping. we have got through the 2102.50 level so an eye on that today.



Overall this week, we can see what appears to be a nice uptrend. Move, consolidate, move, consolidate etc. If we break below one of the consolidation zones (the peaks on the profile), then we can start thinking about downside.

So right now - 2095 is the top of the zone below, so eyes on that.



Also eyes on 2098.50 - the late pullback from last night and also the VAL.

Greece seems an odd one. It's more of the last 2 bailouts that just got Greece more stuck. I'm still expecting that could hit us sideways ant moment.

So initially looking for signs of continuation up with 95, 98.50 and 02.50 as potential support. Below 95, we may be done for the week and be looking to move to retest last weeks highs - the 78-79 area we've been looking at.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2052-> 2107.50
Value 2076.50 -> 21-07.50
S1 - 2043.75 R1 - 2085


Daily Numbers
Range - 2090.50 (overnight) / 2091.50 -> 2105.50
Value - 2098.50 -> 2104.50
Globex - 2099.25 -> 2107.50

Settlement - 2102

Today only - 2078-2079, 2095

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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16th July



We are heading towards the highs, so whilst my bias is long, I'm looking for 2022 & the old high as potential failure points.



As per yesterdays prep, the weekly profile is still showing a nice trend with the volume areas holding. So today looking at 2105 to hold on a pullback. If not & we work our way thru the top node down thru 2100, I'd expect us to start working our way down towards 2080.



Yesterday we had eyes on 2095 and that held in the day session. Today that area is still of interest but I think the 2105 is more interesting.

So a fairly simple day - hoping for a downside test for people to join to the upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2052-> 2112.50
Value 2083.25 -> 2111.75
S1 - 2043.75 R1 - 2085


Daily Numbers
Range - 2095 -> 2107.75
Value - 2100.25 -> 2105.75
Globex - 2102.75 -> 2112.50

Settlement - 2104.25

Today only - 2095, 2105

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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20th July



Heading back to the highs, so all eyes on 2126.25. If we can break through and then roll over, I think we'll have a high participation downside move. As with all highs, there may be buyers above it. It does seem unlikely at this point in time but we do need to consider he scenario where we pop through and then we get a good run upside.



We can see that last week the pattern was "move - consolidate - move - consolidate - move". The highest consolidation area is 2110-2114. So below I'll be thinking longs are in trouble.



Also watching the day session low of 2115 as potential support today, although pullbacks have been few and far between in the past few days.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2052-> 2119.25
Value 2085.75 -> 2116.75
S1 - 2095 R1 - 2131


Daily Numbers
Range - 2110.75 (globex) / 2115 (day) -> 2119.25
Value - 2115.75 -> 2117.75
Globex - 2117.75 -> 2122.75

Settlement - 2118.75

Today only - 2110-2114, 2115

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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21st July



All eyes obviously were on 2126.25, although the move off the level wasn't anything spectacular. So today looking for signs that we are done to the upside and we have participation to the downside.



From a weekly perspective, even though we have reversed off the highs, we haven't really worked back into last weeks range or more importantly through one of the volume nodes below.



So far in the overnight session, we have failed to breach yesterdays value low. Today we have no news.

I don't expect much excitement if we stay within yesterdays range, of we can break it to the downside, we may see some additional participation that way.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2052-> 2119.25
Value 2085.75 -> 2116.75
S1 - 2095 R1 - 2131


Daily Numbers
Range - 2116.50 -> 2126.25
Value - 2119.50 -> 2124.50
Globex - 2119.75 -> 2125

Settlement - 2122

Today only - 2119.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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