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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #581 (permalink)
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16th July



We are heading towards the highs, so whilst my bias is long, I'm looking for 2022 & the old high as potential failure points.



As per yesterdays prep, the weekly profile is still showing a nice trend with the volume areas holding. So today looking at 2105 to hold on a pullback. If not & we work our way thru the top node down thru 2100, I'd expect us to start working our way down towards 2080.



Yesterday we had eyes on 2095 and that held in the day session. Today that area is still of interest but I think the 2105 is more interesting.

So a fairly simple day - hoping for a downside test for people to join to the upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2052-> 2112.50
Value 2083.25 -> 2111.75
S1 - 2043.75 R1 - 2085


Daily Numbers
Range - 2095 -> 2107.75
Value - 2100.25 -> 2105.75
Globex - 2102.75 -> 2112.50

Settlement - 2104.25

Today only - 2095, 2105

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #582 (permalink)
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20th July



Heading back to the highs, so all eyes on 2126.25. If we can break through and then roll over, I think we'll have a high participation downside move. As with all highs, there may be buyers above it. It does seem unlikely at this point in time but we do need to consider he scenario where we pop through and then we get a good run upside.



We can see that last week the pattern was "move - consolidate - move - consolidate - move". The highest consolidation area is 2110-2114. So below I'll be thinking longs are in trouble.



Also watching the day session low of 2115 as potential support today, although pullbacks have been few and far between in the past few days.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2052-> 2119.25
Value 2085.75 -> 2116.75
S1 - 2095 R1 - 2131


Daily Numbers
Range - 2110.75 (globex) / 2115 (day) -> 2119.25
Value - 2115.75 -> 2117.75
Globex - 2117.75 -> 2122.75

Settlement - 2118.75

Today only - 2110-2114, 2115

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #583 (permalink)
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21st July



All eyes obviously were on 2126.25, although the move off the level wasn't anything spectacular. So today looking for signs that we are done to the upside and we have participation to the downside.



From a weekly perspective, even though we have reversed off the highs, we haven't really worked back into last weeks range or more importantly through one of the volume nodes below.



So far in the overnight session, we have failed to breach yesterdays value low. Today we have no news.

I don't expect much excitement if we stay within yesterdays range, of we can break it to the downside, we may see some additional participation that way.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2052-> 2119.25
Value 2085.75 -> 2116.75
S1 - 2095 R1 - 2131


Daily Numbers
Range - 2116.50 -> 2126.25
Value - 2119.50 -> 2124.50
Globex - 2119.75 -> 2125

Settlement - 2122

Today only - 2119.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #584 (permalink)
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Holiday time for me.

Got a fever yesterday, figure that's a good sign to put my feet up for a week and spend some quality time with the kids.

Back next Wednesday.

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  #586 (permalink)
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3rd August

Back at it, feeling refreshed!



Volume is good for the time of year, so let's hope that continues. We have come up as far as out 2102.50 level. it did look like we are on the way for a test of the highs but we've stalled here. We'll need to shake out of this small range or we'll be in danger of spending the whole week in it.



The range is evident here - from 2084.75 up to about 2103.75. Trading within that range will be tricky unless we have a good developing intraday level to lean on. I'll be looking to fade the extremes of this range and only expecting decent participation when it breaks.



Not much commitment either way on the split profiles, so again, expect indecision in this range.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2056.50-> 2109.25
Value 2074 -> 2109
S1 - 2067R1 - 2119


Daily Numbers
Range - 2087.75 (globex) / 2097.75 (day) -> 2109.25
Value - 2100.75-> 2104.75
Globex - 2093 -> 2102.50

Settlement - 2098.50

Today only - 2084.75, 2103.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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August 4th



Still decent volume for the time of year. It is slowing down after the open, so it's worth having a shot at earlier trades rather than watching it play out first.

Bias is now to the downside, watching the levels below, especially 56.75 that held last time. If that does hold, then we are in a narrowing range which would be no shock for the time of year.



Saying that, we have stalled around 2081, which is the top of the lower distribution from last week. If that holds into the open, then i'll expect buyers to jump on that & take longs.



Also worthy of note is the 2091.75, the late pullback yesterday afternoon. So we appear bracketed between that 91.75 and the 81 level overnight.

A test of 91.75 off the open and a move down would probably get the most participation today.

So a downward bias with caution at 81.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2056.50-> 2109.25
Value 2074 -> 2109
S1 - 2067, R1 - 2119


Daily Numbers
Range - 2080 -> 2099 (day) / 2102.50 (globex)
Value - 2084.25 -> 2097.75
Globex - 2085 -> 2092

Settlement - 2091

Today only - 2081, 2091.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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5th August



Volume is still decent. I still have a short bias, looking for a test of 56.75.



As per yesterday, the 2081 level was potentially a level of support because of the lower distribution of trading from last week being below that point. We got as far as 2081.50 yesterday.



So on a longer term basis, I think we need to test a low to see where the buyers are (and hoping the range isn't contracting), I think we now have to consider the possibility of Mondays day session range as potentially trapping us for the rest of the week. If we do start making a move up, we could well stall at 2099. The reasoning is simply that it is summer time and if we start to show a lack of directional conviction, traders may be a little more inclined to write it off as summer time action.

So an eye on a drop off of volume, especially if 2080-2081 holds. If it breaks, then we should get some more commitment.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2080 -> 2102.50
Value 2083.25 -> 2095.25
S1 - 2067, R1 - 2119


Daily Numbers
Range - 2081.50 -> 2096.25
Value - 2085.50 -> 2092.50
Globex - 2082.25 -> 2089.50

Settlement - 2083

Today only - 2081, 2099

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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6th August



Today it's looking more indecisive. We had a spike up but couldn't stay above 02.50 level. Volume still decent though, so it doesn't appear to be putting anyone off trading...



We are rotating around the upper distribution from last week. We still have 81 as potential support. We could in theory fade anything above/below the weeks developing value area.



We had a late pullback at 98.75 yesterday. That's worth watching into the open as is yesterdays day session low. Both seem to have contained most of the overnight trading so far.

So an early trade would be a hold of 98.75 (short) or 90.75 (long). Otherwise, I'll be looking for the fades below 86.50 and above 98 - the developing weekly value area. If we have a decent break out of there, then I expect a bit more commitment but I am really not in a hurry to trade this today as there's no good reason for a directional bias either way.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2080 -> 2107
Value 2086.50 -> 2098
S1 - 2067, R1 - 2119


Daily Numbers
Range - 2082.50 (globex) / 2090.75 (day) -> 2107
Value - 2092 -> 2102
Globex - 2091 -> 2099.25

Settlement - 2093

Today only - 2098.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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7th August



I'm still looking for a bit more of a push down to 56.75 otherwise it would indicate a narrowing range. I'd actually like to see it move much further down as I believe people will jump on and help perpetuate any move.

So today, I'm looking for more signs of weakness, if possible after a test of an upside level from yesterday. That's my 'favorite' scenario but obviously not the only potential scenario.



We can see that yesterday we finally got through the 81 level but the overall profile for the week looks fairly easily distributed. I want to see us stay below the upper distribution from last week around 84.75 and for it to work it's way through the lower distribution towards 60. It's NFP today so that may help or hinder us there.



On the daily profile, we can see that we had a swift move down as per yesterday (
Quoting 
I'll be looking for the fades below 86.50 and above 98 - the developing weekly value area.

) and we broke 81 and had pretty much a straight run to 70. So if we can break 70 today, I'd expect another decent run down. We did pull back to 80.75 last night and so far have not broken 84.75 in the overnight session.

So barring any big surprise in NFP, I'm hoping for a push down for most participation. On the upside, I think we'll probably slow down as we get through 84.75, so if it looks bullish, it pays to try to get in early to avoid entering too close to potential chop.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070 -> 2107
Value 2085.75 -> 2099.50
S1 - 2067, R1 - 2119


Daily Numbers
Range - 2070 -> 2098 / 2099.25
Value - 2071 -> 2085
Globex - 2075.75 -> 2082.50

Settlement - 2079.50

Today only - 2084.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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