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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #561 (permalink)
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18th June



FOMC didn't help us much, so I still see us as being in a narrowing range.

So I really have no bias right now.



We do have unemployment numbers and that could give us a shake out - as well as Philly Fed at 10am. Going into today, all I'll be watching is yesterdays range and value area.

I just thing we've traded this area so much over the past few months there's going to be lots of opinions either way so a nice obvious test of yesterdays high would, in my opinion, give us the best chance of a the herd running in the same direction.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2062 -> 2098.75
Value 2075 -> 2095.50
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2078.75 (pit) -> 2098.75
Value - 2085.75-> 2096.75
Globex - 2082 -> 2094.75

Settlement - 2089.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #562 (permalink)
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19th June



We are no longer in a narrowing range, which is good news. So now expectation is that we test the highs. If the highs hold, then we'd have an initial target of 02.50 and then 73.50. Upside is all trading into fresh areas, so I have no targets.

In terms of the "why" behind any up move, all that comes to mind is that interest rates didn't raise in June FOMC, which isn't much of a "why" considering they have committed to raise then this year.

So from a logical or economical point of view, there is no reason for us to hit new highs. There is little logic behind the markets, so anything can happen. I'm just a bit dubious about the upside.

Still - people have been calling a dollar crash since the mid 90's - so I reckon it's probably best not to marry an opinion.



We have 2 reference points of interest today 2100 and 2098.75. If 2100 breaks with participation we should see 2098.75 at least. If either hold, I'll be looking for buyer participation to join.

Basically, highs or lows - any prices we haven't traded in the past few months would be nice.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2119.25
Value 2071.50 -> 2096.50
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2082 (globex) / 2097 -> 2119.25
Value - 2109-> 2117
Globex - 2111 -> 2117.25

Settlement - 2114.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #563 (permalink)
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22nd June



Volume came off on Friday and it was inside Thursdays range and so far overnight we are also in Thursdays range. Question today is do we drive to the tops or are we now done and tested the upside?



The zoomed in chart doesn't add much more today, nor does the weekly profile (omitted). We have home sales at 10am which may help bring clarity but looking left there's plenty of choppy action.



We can see Thursdays range was 2119.25-2097 in the pit session. So I'm looking to play off that as well a looking at Fridays high/value area but that is secondary. So ideal scenario would be a test of Thursdays range as I feel more people will be looking at that. If Fridays high holds from above, it is a long opportunity but a lesser one.

If volume doesn't pick up then we could well stay in Thursdays range for a few days with only small chunks on the table. That will be my presumption until we test one of Thursdays extremes.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2119.25
Value 2067 -> 2096.50
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2097.25 -> 2111.50 / 2117.25
Value - 2104 -> 2111.50
Globex - 2103.50 -> 2114.75

Settlement - 2097.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #564 (permalink)
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23rd June



We made a slight gain yesterday, but it was a fairly choppy day. Again, the question is are we done to the upside now?



Yesterday we were looking at Fridays range 2097-2119.25. We did pop through the top and then fall back into the range. The Globex session is within yesterdays range so far, so we have no clues as to whether we will see continuation down or not, although it is possible that Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 am EST might help to resolve that.

Into today, I'm still watching the 19.25 as well as yesterdays range and the late PM pullback to 2117.50. Again, just looking for clues as to the mood when we get there. Yesterday we were considering the potential of staying within Thursdays range for a few days and whilst we did poke up through the range yesterday, it couldn't stick so that possibility is still on the table.

Whilst it's a tricky one to call at this point, we are near the extremes, so the chances of an early test are favorable..

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2119.25
Value 2067 -> 2096.50
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2103.50 / 2111.25 -> 2122
Value - 2112.75 -> 2117.75
Globex - 2113.25 -> 2120.50

Settlement - 2112.75

Today only - 2097, 2119.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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Last edited by Jigsaw Trading; June 23rd, 2015 at 07:50 AM.
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  #565 (permalink)
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24th June



Chop chop. GDP today - might shake us from this malaise. If not, don't expect much.



Looking at this weeks profile, we can see it's very easily distributed. So fading the top/bottom of the range and staying out of trades in the middle is the trade until we see participation increase to get us out of the range.



I'd say that anything above 2120.50 is opportunity to fade. We have consistently poked above Fridays high of 19.25 but not managed to sustain it. We've also had 2 consecutive days with the same day session low. There's a trading adage that says "if the market tries to do something a few times and fails, it'll do the opposite". Trouble is, the market has tried to push the highs and lows and failed.

So today, I'm thinking that if we push to 2120, it'll be a good fade to 11.25. If 11.25 breaks, I think we have a good chance of making it to 97. I don't have much hope of a push above 2120, so I feel more inclined to fade that than the 11.25.

If we open in the middle of the range, then we need to be patient. I don't think that playing off yesterdays value area is a good trade today as that too much of a mid range trade.

The ideal trade is no trade until the range breaks and participation increases. Until then it's smaller trades, tight stops, more scratches and potentially sitting through long periods of time with the price hanging around your entry price not doing much.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2103.50 -> 2122
Value 2113 -> 2118
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2111.25 -> 2120.25 (pit) / 2120.60 (globex)
Value - 2112.75 -> 2116.75
Globex - 2113.50 -> 2118.50

Settlement - 2108.75

Today only - 2097

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #566 (permalink)
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25th July



We pushed down through our longer term level at 2102.50 - yesterday but in the overnight session we've moved back up again. So into today, the first order of the day will be to see if those gains can hold into the day session. If not, then we can expect more choppy action as we continue up to test the weeks high.



We are still sitting in Fridays range and that's been holding us all week. Early on in the week we chopped around the high of that range and we may now well chop around the bottom of it. We do have employment numbers out today, which might give us the push we are looking for. I expect a break of 2097 to give us additional volatility.

As you can see we have pushed up overnight but we've stalled at yesterdays VAH, so we could now be done to the upside and continue down now that we have failed to breach the VAH.

The PM range from yesterday after the move down has a high of 2105.50 and I'll be watching a test of that area. If we test it from above and it holds, then we could see us take back the move down from yesterday. Quite often after a down day like that we'll simply take it all back the next. I think anything above 2114 will be choppy.

So today I'll be looking for tests on any pushes down to give us potential to get to yesterdays high. To the downside, I really want to see 2097 to break before getting too excited about any moves down.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2099 -> 2122
Value 2110 -> 2119.50
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2099 -> 2117.50 (pit) / 2118.50 (globex)
Value - 2101.50 -> 2112.50
Globex - 2099.50 -> 2112.50

Settlement - 2099.50

Today only - 2097, 2105.50

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #567 (permalink)
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26th July



Today, I'm looking for continued downside to take us towards 2073.50 and possibly 56.75 to complete a full downside test of the range.

If it stalls here, then I think it's more indecision and that makes for more choppy action.



As you can see, we broke through last Fridays low of 2097, poked back through it and failed to stay above and then worked our way back to the days low.

So into today, I'm looking for 2097-2099 area to provide resistance and if a test there does fail, for us to see plenty of sellers come and join the move.

So far the Globex session is neutral & we have to consider that 2097 has been tested from below, so we may not see a test today but we may just see a push down.

Of course, the market could go up, and any thing above 2099, I'll consider that the shorts are off the table but I'm not so interested in longs below 2099 as I'll be presuming it's a test.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2090.50 -> 2122
Value 2104.50 -> 2119
S1 - 2066.75, R1 - 2124


Daily Numbers
Range - 2092 -> 2107.75 (pit) / 2112.75 (globex)
Value - 2097.50 -> 2107.50
Globex - 2090.50 -> 2095.25

Settlement - 2094

Today only - 2097,2099

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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  #568 (permalink)
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29th June



Well, this is a hopeful sign we'll have decent volatility today. Of course, there have been many days in the past where those pesky Europeans have had all the fun but we have a decent gap down and are now in territory that should not be as choppy as those prices above. We've dipped through the 56.75 level and we are between that and the 73.50 level.

If this is all based on Greece, then it might not last but certainly I'll be watching the 73.50 level into the open to see if we can hold below it.



Based on last weeks profile, we don't have any serious trading till we get up to 2091, so below that I think we still have chance of downside continuation and of volatility. Above 91 and I think we'll move more slowly.



There's a couple of ways to look at gaps - in this case you could look at the low of Friday to the high of the Globex session. So that leaves us with a gap close at 86.25 and of course lots of people will be watching that level.

So into today, looking for continuation down & if we don't get it, watching 73.50, 86.25 and 91. There's plenty of room for trades both sides going into today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2086.25 -> 2122
Value 2101 -> 2119
S1 - 2080.75, R1 - 2116.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2086.25 -> 2100.75
Value - 2091 -> 2097.50
Globex - 2054 -> 2079

Settlement - 2095.75

Today only - 2091

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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Last edited by Jigsaw Trading; June 29th, 2015 at 07:46 AM.
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  #569 (permalink)
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30th June



Thank you Greece, I'd forgotten what volatility looked like.



Over 2 million traded yesterday and we went up and down but mostly down in the day session. So far overnight we are in a holding pattern, so today looking for continuation or a "snap back" if everyone thinks that was an overreaction.



We have taken out the 56.75 level but then came back above it, so that's our first task today, to get below there. Or fail to and head back up. But it's an area that will take some volume to push through.



Yesterday was a good day in a couple of respects - we first pushed down to 72.50 the bottom of the high volume area in the overnight volume profile. Then we came back and tested the open price from above and it held. So 2 excellent long opportunities. We failed to close the gap and then sellers took control. So in terms of bigger picture play, it was a good day of the ES playing to it's personality.

There really isn't much from yesterday to play off other than the lows. The value area on an elongated day is usually useless but after a big down day we often get a snap back up or continuation starting early on. We do also have days where the market seems to be in "shock" and just sits in a tight range after a big day but these are the exception and if that is the case, it should be evident fairly early on.



This is yesterdays action, the shift in delta was on the high side - almost 50k from high to low - not massive but still significant and the volume was predominantly to the downside.

Anyway, another few days like this and we can crack open the Ouzo. Next level down 2023.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2086.25 -> 2122
Value 2101 -> 2119
S1 - 2080.75, R1 - 2116.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2047.25 -> 2083.25
Value - 2053.50 -> 2076.50
Globex - 2049.50 -> 2069

Settlement - 2050.50


Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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Last edited by Jigsaw Trading; June 30th, 2015 at 09:09 AM.
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  #570 (permalink)
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No prep today - not sure what happened but Snag It or any other screen capture tool causes all my screens to go black the moment I try to do a capture.

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