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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,827 / 920
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old June 8th, 2015, 07:18 AM   #551 (permalink)
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8th June

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We had another push downside on Friday but close just slightly below the open in the end. We got as low as 83.50 and we have a level at 81.25. Today we are looking to see if we are now done to the downside.

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We also have last weeks low to break. Anything above 2100 and we are really looking at the more choppy zone again.

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Of the open, I'll be watching 88.25 and Fridays value high 95.25, if either of those hold from below, I think we could see sellers have the confidence to push us thru 81.25 which has us looking at 2060 and then 2030.

Of course, the market has really not liked the downside much of late. So we also have to be aware of any downside reference points that hold. As usual the downside is more attractive as we haven't traded there so much of late and so we should move more freely down there. Up above is chop till we can really break new highs.

With interest rate hike indecision, the "new highs" might be more whimper than bang though.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2083.40 -> 2120.75
Value 2099.75 -> 2116.25
S1 - 2078, R1 2114.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2083.50 -> 2099.75 / 2102.75
Value - 2090.25 -> 2095.25
Globex - 2086.50 -> 2093.25

Settlement - 2092.25

Today only - 2088.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old June 9th, 2015, 07:51 AM   #552 (permalink)
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9th June

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We got through the 81.25 level yesterday and so now we are looking for signs that buyers will come in or of a continued move down to 2060.75. We have moved enough below 81.25 that it should really hold it's own now.

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Anything above 91.75 sees us eating into thicker areas on last weeks profile and I think then we have probably failed to the downside.

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A little lower down, we have the late pullback from yesterday at 86.25. Again, that seems a way off and 81.25 is the first point above us we should look for a test. Obviously overnight is very short and so there could be an initial move up off the open.

So first order off the day is yesterdays low, then value low, then 81.25. If any of those hold then we have a very good chance that sellers will jump in for a push down.

Obviously, we cannot ignore that of late, we've had a hard time holding the down moves. I have no levels below till 60.75 but I'm wary of any strong move up off the open. A swift reaction to the overnight move is OK but if a high volume push up comes in off the open is not what I want to see.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2083.40 -> 2120.75
Value 2099.75 -> 2116.25
S1 - 2078, R1 2114.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2067.25 -> 2092 / 2093 (globex)
Value - 2080.50 -> 2088.50
Globex - 2068.75 -> 2082.75

Settlement - 2078.25

Today only - 2091.75, 2086.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old June 10th, 2015, 07:17 AM   #553 (permalink)
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10th June

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Looking at the daily chart, I expect a lot of people will be looking at the candlestick from yesterday and thinking that this is now done to the downside.

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We can see that we are back above the 2081.25 line and we've tested it in the Globex session. Another test there will give buyers confidence.

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As per yesterday, anything above 91.75 sees us eating into last weeks profile but failure there should give the sellers a little confidence.

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Overall yesterday we made up just a little ground to the upside compared to the prior day. The Globex session is so far mostly long which can mean a push down off the open.

So I'm neutral. On one hand we've had a hard time maintaining any moves down of late. On the other, with he daily chart looking the way it does, it would be a good chance to sucker in buyers.

Into the open - my upside references are 91.25 and below I'm looking at yesterdays value area. Overall I'm neutral though and hoping we can reach a near reference to give one side a but of confidence. Obviously if everyone feels like me, we won't go anywhere fast!

Weekly Numbers
Range 2068.75 -> 2093.25
Value 2074.25 -> 2088.25
S1 - 2078, R1 2114.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2068.75 (globex) / 2070.75 (pit) -> 2084.75
Value - 2076.25 -> 2082.75
Globex - 2080 -> 2089.25

Settlement - 2080

Today only - 2091.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old June 11th, 2015, 06:37 AM   #554 (permalink)
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11th June

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A good move up yesterday and now moving down in the Globex session. I'd have expected a pop up through 2110 before the range failing.

So, I'm expecting an additional move up but I can't say I'm supremely confident & we do have unemployment numbers today.


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We have a consolidation area above 2102.50, so that's the line in the sand for me today - a break away from it then failure to get back to it would make a fairly obvious continuation trade.

BUT

It's rollover time. Which often means directionless trading and for an order flow trader like me, it means a lot of order flow going on that's just moving positions from one contract the other. There are times when it does surprise us, so it's still worth clocking in for the first hour.

Right now we have about 25% of volume in the September contract. So for now, I'm still trading June.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2068.75 -> 2108
Value 2075.75 -> 2092.25
S1 - 2078, R1 2114.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2080 (globex) / 2086.75 (pit) -> 2108
Value - 2098.75 -> 2107.75
Globex - 2103.25 -> 2107.50

Settlement - 2107

Today only - 2102.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old June 12th, 2015, 06:29 AM   #555 (permalink)
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12th June

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As of now, September contract has overtaken June in terms of volume. For the past few years, it's been taking longer & longer to do the roll. Yesterday the volume was moving to the new month noticeably faster than normal. Go back to 2010 and you'd see most of the volume in the new month by lunchtime. The upshot is the Friday after the roll has been a crappy trade because the roll was still in progress.

So today, I'd normally not trade today but I'll start the day as I think we may be over the bulk of the roll.

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We are at a point in which we could now roll over or we could now push up through the 2102.50 level to run at the highs.

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Looking at the profile, we can see that we don't have much trading below 95.25, so if we can break that, we have a good chance of a move to 85.

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Again, it's clear here how the 95.25 level is going to be on a lot of people's minds. So I'm watching for that to test or break into the open and then jump in if we see some participation.

Of course, this could be a slow day, so if we don't see some moves by 10:30am EST, I'll be done.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2061 -> 2106.75
Value 2074 -> 2106.75


Daily Numbers
Range - 2095.50 / 2097.50 (pit) -> 2106.75
Value - 2100.25 -> 2103.75
Globex - 2094.75 -> 2102.50

Settlement - 2101.50

Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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Old June 15th, 2015, 06:45 AM   #556 (permalink)
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15th June

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The range is narrowing and whilst it was a bearish Friday, we could now be done to the downside and on our way up to the top of the narrowing range, or we break through 73.50 and make our way to 56.75 but beyond that it's going to be more luck than judgement.

Perhaps the new contract will give us some direction but into today, I'm biased neutral.

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The lower distribution from last weeks bottoms out around 2070.75, so it could be we hit that and then turn up.

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Fridays lows got tested a couple of times and now so far in the Globes we've stayed below that, so we obviously need to have an eye on that as well as 2088.25 which is around the top of the PM range.

So I'm fairly neutral, looking for something to be tested first. I'd prefer that to be a test of Fridays lows for a move down to prices we haven't traded for a while. A bit like hoping for rain that.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2061 -> 2106.75
Value 2075.25 -> 2104.25
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2082 -> 2101.50 / 2106.75 (globex)
Value - 2086.50 -> 2100.50
Globex - 2072 -> 2081.50

Today Only - 2070.75, 2088.25
Settlement - 2085

Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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Old June 16th, 2015, 07:26 AM   #557 (permalink)
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16th June

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Good volume yesterday and we did manage to maintain the down move that we'd made overnight and closed lower than Friday. But we still ended up slightly higher on the day. So as per yesterdays prep - still waiting to see if we can start moving down or if this is the bottom of what is becoming an ever narrowing range.

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I'll be looking at Fridays low and yesterdays afternoon low - 2082 & 2072.50 respectively. So those are the areas I'm interested in.

As usual, I WANT this market to move down and shrug off this range. So a test of 72.50 or yesterdays VAL would be a good opportunity. Of course, if we can't make it down past yesterdays low and we start to climb, I'll be expecting us to head to 2102.50 and possible for that to be as high as we get - basically just perpetuating this range until the FOMC tomorrow.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2061 -> 2106.75
Value 2075.25 -> 2104.25
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2062.75 -> 2079.50 / 2081.50 (globex)
Value - 2071.50 -> 2078.50
Globex - 2062 -> 2076

Today Only - 2082, 2072/50
Settlement - 2075.50

Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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Old June 17th, 2015, 06:03 AM   #558 (permalink)
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17th June

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FOMC today, which typically means a slow AM - but just as you expect certain things to happen, then they change. So over the past 12 months, we've seen a few very active FOMC mornings. So I think it's a case of taking the day off or just having a peek for the first hour to see if anything interesting is happening.

If the FOMC doesn't shake things up, then I'll be looking for us to poke through 02.50 and then to start heading back down again. This is based on the narrowing range we seem to be in. Obviously it's better for us if it doesn't roll over then and instead heads up to the highs again.

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Not really much to say about this but watch yesterdays high and value area as we open. A swift pull back to either on the open gives us a long to the range high.

But let's keep it short & sweet as it is FOMC day and all bets are off pretty much.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2096.50
Value 2066.25 -> 2079.75
S1 - 2061.75, R1 - 2107.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 2062 (globex) / 2072 (pit) -> 2089.25
Value - 2078.25 -> 2088.75
Globex - 2088.50 -> 2096.50

Settlement - 2089

Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

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Old June 17th, 2015, 09:31 AM   #559 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
17th June

...
Long Term 2126.75, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

You might want to check your rollover results. The long term 2126.75 level should display 2126.25 if ajusted. Not a big deal though.

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BTW, thanks for your analysis.

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Old June 18th, 2015, 07:34 AM   #560 (permalink)
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Thanks for that .25 it is? I appreciate you pointing that out.

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