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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,806 / 920
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old May 11th, 2015, 09:33 AM   #531 (permalink)
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11th May

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Back to the top, 1.3 million contracts traded. So once again, looking to see if we hold the tops for a move down or we pop upside.

I have no bias as to what will happen.

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We can see that last week we had a slightly lower high, not that this helps us much other than tell us that this high is important.

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We have held the tops in the Globex session. We held 05.25 in the Globex session and 02.50 was Fridays Pit session low. So I expect shorts to get more interested if we break that area downside. If we do push down, then we should see 2090 fairly quickly.

Upside, well that's uncharted territory but as before, there is the potential for buyers above the highs, so it's simply a matter of watching for those. If we push down to 02.50 and that holds, it gives us the chance to get long into the highs.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2057 -> 2115
Value 2061.25 -> 2101.25
S1 - 2075, R1 2128.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2083.50 (globex) / 2102.50 -> 2113.50
Value - 2108 -> 2111.50
Globex - 2105.25 -> 2110.50

Settlement - 2108.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Last edited by DionysusToast; May 11th, 2015 at 09:48 AM.
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Old May 12th, 2015, 08:29 AM   #532 (permalink)
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May 12th

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Back in the choppy zone. We've gone down to 2081.25 level and had a small bounce up. If we head back to the tops, it's likely we'll have more choppy action in this narrow range. If sellers can push it down again, we should hit the 2060.75 area.

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We've taken back Fridays range. I'm 100% neutral going into today. The fact we couldn't hold below 81.25 is bullish and the overnight action is almost all short, so that does give the chance of a pop up off the open - but both of those scenarios see us moving up into historically choppy prices.

I don't see any indication of what will happen. It's clear there's a lot of indecision in this market, so I'm going to sit on my hands for the first 15 minutes and see if a direction does establish itself.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2057 -> 2115
Value 2061.25 -> 2101.25
S1 - 2075, R1 2128.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2097.25 -> 2113.50
Value - 2103.25 -> 2111.25
Globex - 2079.25 -> 2101

Settlement - 2097.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 12th, 2015, 08:50 AM   #533 (permalink)
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I find your analysis to be very thoughtful and straightforward. Thanks for posting. Short bias for me under NQ 4024/ES 93


Last edited by jackbravo; May 12th, 2015 at 09:11 AM.
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Old May 13th, 2015, 07:39 AM   #534 (permalink)
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13th May

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We are still in the 2080-2110 area. It's still a choppy area. Still no overall bias for me. Waiting for 2080->2110 range to break.

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Yesterday, we took a dip down overnight and then made it up in the day session. So that was fairly neutral. Basically I'm watching yesterdays range and value as well as 2093.

So once again, no bias. In a chop zone. A hold OR break of 2080 or 2110 would be good.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.25 -> 2113.50
Value 2093 -> 2110
S1 - 2075, R1 2128.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2079.25 (globex) / 2080.25 -> 2100.75
Value - 2090 -> 2099
Globex - 2095 -> 2105.75

Settlement - 2095

Today only - 2093

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Last edited by DionysusToast; May 13th, 2015 at 07:49 AM.
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Old May 13th, 2015, 09:30 PM   #535 (permalink)
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Hi, Peter

Thanks for sharing your daily prep.
Can you explain a little bit of the Settlement # and Today only # for me?
Long term you mean support levels?

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Old May 15th, 2015, 07:47 AM   #536 (permalink)
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15th May

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We poked through the top of the range again but only in the Globex session. So it's on low volume so far. The move up to the highs yesterday (it fell short 6 ticks) had just under 1.1 million contracts traded, so the prospect of a break didn't attract volume.

Below us is a choppy zone but now we've popped the top, it's quite possible that any move down will be sustained as people will see it as a failure at the old high. So watch for participation on any move down.

To the upside, it's fresh air. We don't have any high impact news today, so nothing there to give it a nudge up. So the best chance is for us to have an obvious level to lean on and for speculators to jump on that holding.

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2114 and 2007.75 look about the best potential for pullbacks. we do have the old high at 2110 also, so that gives us a wide range but these are all levels that plenty of traders will look at. If we come to one and reverse up, it could give them a bit of courage and other people (like me) will jump on if that starts a stampede, albeit a minor one.

Note also that 2119.75 was the last high from 27th March, it's not a level yet but it may become one.

So into today, no bias but we know what to look for. This new high from overnight may well attract some volume the volume in the Globex session so far is about average, so this push up doesn't even have high volume for overnight. We do have the opportunity for a clean move either way.

If I had to have a side bet, I'd say we'd move back into the range. Fortunately I don't, so I'll wait for the market to show it's hand.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.25 -> 2122.75
Value 2093 -> 2110
S1 - 2075, R1 2128.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2092 / 2103.50 (pit) > 2118.25
Value - 2103.75-> 2115.25
Globex - 2116 -> 2122.75

Settlement - 2117.50

Today only - 2107.75, 2114

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 18th, 2015, 06:48 AM   #537 (permalink)
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18th May

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On Friday, we were looking for signs of the high being resolved one way or the other. What we got was a very small range and low volume. There's not much interest up here. My bias is still towards reverting back to the range, but either side could in theory jump on a break.

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To the downside, we can see that below 2110 we have thicker trading in the weeks value area, this has been a thick area generally so it could be choppy to the downside. On the other hand, a move down could be seen as a failure at the highs. So it's a tough one to predict, even in terms of volatility below us.

To the upside, fresh air but we need participation and it has pretty much disappeared after the break.

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Below us the 2106-2108 area from last week is interesting. If that holds, we should see some more buying interest.

So going into today - I am neutral. I expect it to chop around. Possibly all week. It's possible we need to trade this area, build positions and then have power for a break. I do favor the downside though but I want to see decent volume before I take more than a very short term position.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.25 -> 2122.75
Value 2090 -> 2112
S1 - 2091.25, R1 2134.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2113.25 -> 2120.50 / 2122.75
Value - 2114.50-> 2118
Globex - 2112.25 -> 2120.75

Settlement - 2119

Today only - 2006-2008,

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 19th, 2015, 04:51 AM   #538 (permalink)
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19th May

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We can see price is rising but volume and volatility is moving down. Yesterdays volume was just 909 thousand contracts. Very low.

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Obviously, you can't stay married to an opinion. My opinion is that we'll return to the range - but it is just that, an opinion or a bias. I don't feel this move up is sustainable but I could of course be wrong. So whilst I don't buy into the move, I better still look for places that might give buyers confidence to get in. Or I'm gonna be sitting on my ass umptions and not doing anything.

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We still have the value area from last week and a huge step int he profile around 2110.25 - which is one of our long term levels. With the current volatility, we may not get that low but a hold there would make for a more confident buy.

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A bit closer to where we are is 2122.75 and yesterdays VAL. A pullback to there and a push up would also be something I'd expect people to jump on.

So, I am expecting these highs to fail but I will join moves to the upside, especially if we get a decent downside test as I believe that will give people a bit more confidence to participate.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.25 -> 2122.75
Value 2090 -> 2112
S1 - 2091.25, R1 2134.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2112.25 / 2116.25 (pit) -> 2128.75
Value - 2119.75-> 2128.75
Globex - 2125.50 -> 2133.75

Settlement - 2126

Today only - 2122.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 20th, 2015, 07:14 AM   #539 (permalink)
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20th May

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Still climbing on low volume, yesterday a million contracts traded. We were looking for a hold for continuation up and one of our levels was 2122.75 and we held at 2122.25 for a push 2130.25.

We didn't make it to the overnight high and then we broke 2122.25 on the way down.

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The Globex session is so far within yesterdays range. To many people this will look like a top, so I suspect that if we can break yesterdays low, then we would see some more participation in a downside move. The daily candlesticks are also what people might call "toppy". So we do have potential for lots of different people to all come to the same conclusion, albeit for different reasons.

The weeks low is 2112.25, if we get to that point and it holds, then it's probably going to be another dull day.

To the upside, I think we really need to hold yesterdays low to bring in any decent participation but even then I think it'd be quite poor.

So let's hope for a break of yesterdays low and for people to see that as a bearish sign. We need some more volume to come in for some decisive moves.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2134
Value 2119.25 -> 2132.75
S1 - 2091.25, R1 2134.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2121.25 -> 2130.25 / 2134
Value - 2123.50 -> 2127.50
Globex - 2121.75 -> 2136.75

Settlement - 2124.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 21st, 2015, 08:33 AM   #540 (permalink)
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21st May

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Volume still around 1 million and we've stopped making progress to the upside. Still, we've not seen sellers jump in yet.

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We can see that we have a few old highs to the left and perhaps sellers are not convinced until those are broken to the downside. Yesterday I was looking for a break of 2122.75 to see sellers come in with the potential of is stopping at 2112.25. We really didn't see sellers come in at 2122.75 but I'm still looking at 2112.25 as a potential failure of a down move.

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We had a big push up in the afternoon yesterday that failed. So today we'll look for that 2121.50 area to hold from below. That should give sellers a bit of confidence to jump in.

As it is - it's low confidence either way. It looks like the highs are failing but there's no interest in selling yet. I'm left guessing at where the "line in the sand" is that gets sellers involved.

Perhaps the real line in the sand is the June Fed announcement and whether they will adjust interest rates or not. If so, we can expect more of the same for a few weeks.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2134
Value 2118.25 -> 2129.75
S1 - 2091.25, R1 2134.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2119.25 -> 2132.25
Value - 2121.50 -> 2126.50
Globex - 2115 -> 2122.75

Today 2112.25, 2121.50

Settlement - 2122.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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