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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,394 / 914
Last Reply:December 2nd, 2016 (04:59 AM) Attachments:535

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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old April 27th, 2015, 05:42 AM   #521 (permalink)
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27th April

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Volume was below a million contracts on Friday, so there's not much interest in trading at these highs just yet. That doesn't make me want to automatically fade it just yet. There's a lack of interest, so it's a tough read.

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We do have an upper distribution above 2106, so it's worth looking around there. An ideal scenario for the upside would be a downside test first that attracts a lot of attention.

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We had a late pullback on Friday to 2109 and 2103.75 is also worth watching.

If volume is low though - it's going to be tough trade. So I'm just watching to see if volume initiates a move from one of these areas and or course the new all time high at 2116.50.

It's a wait & see day for me. No rush to trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2114.75
Value 2082.75 -> 2102.75
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2103 (globex) / 2105.75 -> 2114.75
Value - 2109.25-> 2113.25
Globex - 2108.50 -> 2116.50

Settlement - 2111.75

Today only - 2103.25, 2106, 2109

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old April 28th, 2015, 07:28 AM   #522 (permalink)
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28th April

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We've moved off the highs yesterday. It looks like a rejection but only 1.2 million contracts traded, which isn't an lot. So right now biased towards a push down to 2081.25. Possibly with an end goal of 2030.

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We are within last weeks value area, we have the bulk of trading below 2097.75, so looking at that as a potential hurdle. If we bounce off that, I'd expect buyers to try and push it up.

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The late pullback was to 2109, so again looking at that to see if we have rejection. This was significant in yesterdays prep yesterday, so eyes should be on it. Certainly we should get that if shorts want to push us down.

Globex is mostly short, so we may see a correction upside off the open but the gameplan for me is downward bias. Looking for reference points from yesterday as clues to whether that bias is playing out or not.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2098.75 -> 2119.75
Value 2103.75 -> 2119.25
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2100.25 -> 2119.75
Value - 2101.50 -> 2114
Globex - 2098.75 -> 2106.25

Settlement - 2104.75

Today only - 2109, 2097.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old April 29th, 2015, 06:59 AM   #523 (permalink)
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29th April

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That was an interesting day. We had the consumer confidence numbers out and about the same time some news that a US Navy boat had been captured by the Iranian Navy.

We took a big nose dive and then the news came out "no, we found them", which brings to mind pictures of drunken sailors taking a little unauthorized shore leave.

Anyway - problem over, market shoots straight back up. End result is a higher close. and just short of 1.5 million contracts traded.

If you take away the news, then it looks like sellers pushed down and got to an area where a lot of buyers were waiting. With the news, speculators took it down and then they took it up again. I think both moves were purely short term speculation but that does mean going into today is tricky. I still have my bias short. I still think we should hit 2080 area as we have tested the range upside. Doesn't matter what I think if a bunch of traders see yesterday as a bullish signal and buy, buy, buy.

So I'm short biased long term but really not sure how to play today other than allowing the early action to shake out one way or the other and taking bits of the resulting move. I just have low confidence either side.

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Early on, I'll be watching 2104.50 to see if that level holds and will watch the daily levels. Like I say - it was an odd day and I'm not sure what to think.

Also - it's FOMC day - so we could be very dull in the AM and the PM will be just as unpredictable.

All in all - a good day to not trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2088.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2100.75 -> 2113.25
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2088.25 -> 2112.50
Value - 2099.75 -> 2110.25
Globex - 2108 -> 2112.50

Settlement - 2112.00

Today only - 2104.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old April 30th, 2015, 07:32 AM   #524 (permalink)
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30th April

Last day of the month.

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Still biased to the downside. FOMC day was a bit of a wash. Good volume but basically an inside day. I'm still biased to the downside but first we need to get through the Tuesday low.

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As usual, if I am biased downside, I'd like to see us move up first, test a level and them move off it. Just because I feel that will bring in the most speculators. So both yesterdays range and Tuesdays range are of interest.

Tuesdays low is 88.25. We've been close to that but I'm not seeing signs that participants see that as "tested" and are now trading upside. We are mostly short overnight, so we could have an initial test up.

Once through 88.25, the next hurdle is the 81.25 and then 60.75. I would like to see us have a bit of a shake out one way or another because it's so indecisive here right now.

So biased short, would like an upside failure first and I see 88.25 as a potential place where buyers could jump in. So taking care down there. Oil has been threatening to break upside too, so that should be interesting today.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2088.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2096.50 -> 2111
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2090.50 -> 2107.75 (pit) / 2112.50 (globex)
Value - 2096 -> 2104
Globex - 2090.50 -> 2102

Settlement - 2099

Today only - 2088.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 1st, 2015, 05:49 AM   #525 (permalink)
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1st May

Happy Labour Day/May Day to all the commies out there. Yes, my American friends, this is the real "labor day".

This is an ancient spring (fertility) festival that was only picked up by the socialists and communists later on.

So yes, it's Labour Day in Europe. No, it's not the US Labor day. No, we aren't all commies for having a day off....

So overnight action is thin.

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Yesterday - just over 2 milion contracts traded. We got below 81.25 but couldn't hold down there.

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The small white horizontal line is 88.25 - so now we are looking at that to hold. If not, we may see some buyers come on board but I am still short biased until at least 2060.

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As well as the 88.25 level, keep an eye on 89.75.

Don't read too much into the Globex session. Most of Europe is busy with fertility rites. I'm looking for shorts again, preferring an upside test.

The only question today is about volatility. Yesterday was pretty wild but today we have a bunch of people on vacation, so be aware of the participation after the open. It could be a dud day.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2093.25 -> 2112.75
S1 - 2092.25, R1 2123.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2070.25 -> 2098 (pit) / 2102 (globex)
Value - 2082 -> 2096.25
Globex - 2080.50 -> 2087

Settlement - 2079

Today only - 2088.25, 2089.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 4th, 2015, 06:53 AM   #526 (permalink)
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4th May

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Low volume on Friday, just 1 million contracts. Holidays in Europe being one reason for that and we have holidays there today too. Notably it's a holiday in the UK, so trading from London will be thin.

Anyway - we had a short bias most of last week based on a failure to get through the highs. It looks like our failure is failing. We are moving to the highs again. Overall it looks like the range is narrowing. So for this week, I am neutral.

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We are in the middle of last weeks range, which also makes us prone to sideways action.

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What we do have from Friday is a late pullback to 96.75 with a single print at 96 just below it. So into the open, I am watching that. In the Globex session we have so far held Fridays Value high.

So no bias, we are potentially in a range bound area, so looking for a weekly extreme or a test of one of Fridays levels.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2091.75 -> 2112.25
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2080.50 / 2087.25 (pit) -> 2102.50
Value - 2088 -> 2098
Globex - 2098 -> 2107

Settlement - 2101.50

Today only - 2096-2096.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 5th, 2015, 06:44 AM   #527 (permalink)
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5th April

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Poor volume again yesterday, a million contracts. Not much at all. As you can see we made a push to the highs but fell just shorts. Going into today, I'm looking to see if sellers come in looking to take advantage of this failure and push it down. That gives us the prospect of any initial move down to

To the upside, I think it'll be choppy till we break the highs. There is always the chance that buyers push it on a break of the high.

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Range-wise, we are in the middle of last weeks range, so not a great place to be for fast paced action.

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We seem to be holding the late pullback, value high from yesterday, that's good for downside but also we have not managed to hold prices below yesterdays low.

We need to get out of yesterdays range, hopefully to the downside, then I can see us making a decent move.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070.25 -> 2119.75
Value 2091.75 -> 2112.25
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2098 (globex) / 2105.50 (pit) -> 2115
Value - 2108.25 -> 2112.25
Globex - 2104.50 -> 2111.75

Settlement - 2109.25

Today only - 2112.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 6th, 2015, 07:23 AM   #528 (permalink)
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6th May

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Decent volume yesterday, just under 1.6 million traded. We got our push down through Tuesdays low which gave us a run as it makes the failure at the highs look a bit more 'official'.

We got to within 1 tick of our 2081.25 line. And the globex hit it to the tick. So into today it's pretty simple. We are looking to see if this level will break or hold. If it breaks we should see 2060 and longer term be looking at 2030. If not - it's up and chop again.

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Looking at the weekly profile for this week and the past 4, we can see that with a bit more of a nudge down, we can escape that chop range and run a little more freely.

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As well as the 81.25 level, I'll also be watching any upside move to 2097. note that 2098 was the low of Tuesday, so 2097-2098 is the approximate area that the market switches from short bias to long bias for me.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2081.25 -> 2115
Value 2091.50 -> 2115
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2081.50 -> 2109.25 / 2111.75
Value - 2081.75 -> 2097.25
Globex - 2081.25 -> 2092.50

Settlement - 2084

Today only - 2097-2098

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 7th, 2015, 05:18 AM   #529 (permalink)
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7th May

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Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We got to within 1 tick of our 2081.25 line. And the globex hit it to the tick. So into today it's pretty simple. We are looking to see if this level will break or hold. If it breaks we should see 2060 and longer term be looking at 2030. If not - it's up and chop again.

We got to 2061.25 yesterday, a few ticks short of our 2060.75 level. Volume was good at 1.7 million and early shorts were well rewarded.

So this could be it to the downside or we could start another push down. I really don't have much between 2060 and 2030, and bigger picture, even a move to 1960 would really still be considered as a rangebound move, going back to December levels.

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We can see a pullback to 2084, so that's worth noting if we do push up. The Globex session has been rotating around yesterdays close and is now below it but we are basically within yesterdays value area. It's only 4:15AM EST as of writing but that may change. If not, watching yesterdays value area for a test.

But basically, we are in more free moving area whichever way it goes. So today, I'm keeping it simple. Seeing if we get good participation on one side and trading with it.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2061.25 -> 2115
Value 2082.50 -> 2115
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 2093.75 -> 2061.25
Value - 2068.25 -> 2083.25
Globex - 2067.50 -> 2077.50

Settlement - 2074.25

Today only - 2084

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old May 8th, 2015, 06:08 AM   #530 (permalink)
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8th May

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Yesterday we clawed back most of Wednesdays down move. We didn't quite make it to Wednesdays high at 93.75, so let's watch to see what happens here.

I have no bias at this point. It's up one day and down the next. We do seem to be stuck in a 2060-2110 range with small extensions either side. As such, I'd much prefer to be trading the extreme of the range than the middle of one.

Above us is the area where we recently suffered from very choppy action.

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I'd like to see a reaction at 93.75 - Wednesdays high or a move down to 80.50. In the middle, it'll be small scalps or nothing at all unless there is overwhelming participation by one side.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2057 -> 2115
Value 2058.75 -> 2098.75
S1 - 2074.75, R1 2124.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2057 (globex) / 2069.25 -> 2088.50
Value - 2077 -> 2088
Globex - 2083.50 -> 2091.25

Settlement - 2084.25

Today only - 2093.75, 2080.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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