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DTs Pre Market Prep

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9th April



Volume a slightly healthier 1.2 Million. Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Between 70 & 80 - I'm not interested

Mind you - we had that the day before too. We are in a range. It's pretty sloppy action between 70 & 80 - we've had extensions either side but no traction. Yesterday, a trader told me this...


Quoting 
Funny enough i just though last week i finally got it, and there we go this week lost all of it

If you think about it - not many people trading, it's in a range, no-one knows where it's going, not much commitment and so not really an easy read. When tons of people are all seeing a move and jumping on - it's an easy read.



We can see the volume building between 70 & 80 here. At some point this will break. It cannot stay here forever. When it does, there should be a reaction. In the middle it will be crappy.



At the risk of sounding repetitive..... same story here.

So watch yesterdays range/value as we kick off the day, either holding could cause one side to step on the gas and cause a break of the range the opposite side. Other than that - we can fade the extremes, which is sort or risky in terms of win rate as we've been here a while but NOT too risky in terms of R:R as we'll soon know if we are wrong. Other than that, if we don't get a hold to drive us to an extreme, wait for the break and count on there being a run when it does break.

Anything in the middle is tough trade.

Unemployment numbers today - so that might shake us out.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2038.74 -> 2082.75
Value 2067.25 -> 2079.25
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2064.50 (globex) / 2065.75 -> 2080.25
Value - 2071.25 -> 2076.75
Globex - 2067.25 -> 2078

Settlement - 2067

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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10th April

An early one today as I'm making up for forgetting my wedding anniversary - which my wife forgot too but "that's different"...



We broke out of that 70-80 zone that was drawing is back all week, so today we need to stay above it for a break up to the 2100's or we slide back and chop about. First thing to look for is a pullback to 2081.25 area and it to hold.

That gives the clearest signal. We may not get the pullback, we could go back up but a re-test will see more speculators come on board.



The same thing is evident on the weekly profile but the low volume in the middle is about 82.25, so let's watch for the hold there too..



Same thing on the split profile. We could also consider a pullback to the value high from yesterday but below that, I'm expecting more choppy action.

So a fairly clear day - upside has good potential if we can hold those upper reference points. Downside will probably be tough trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2038.74 -> 2087.50
Value 2067 -> 2080
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2066.75-> 2087
Value - 2070.50 -> 2080
Globex - 2083 -> 2087.50 (3:30am EST)

Settlement - 2085.75

Today only - 2081.25 -> 2082.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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14th April

Happy Thai New Year.



We didn't make it to the highs yet but I think that's still potentially on the cards. So today, we have to decide if we are going to run to the top or if we are now done and headed back to 2030. Obviously, we are looking at 2081.25 still - the closest line in the sand below.



On the weekly profile, we can see that we are above the value area and that the 2081.25 level is at the top of the major distribution from last week. So again, 2081.25 is on our radar.



For downside, we have 2093.25 to watch for - that could potentially act as resistance and if so, we should expect sellers to jump in there. This was the breakdown point yesterday.



It's worth considering the delta shift yesterday. We can see delta came off about 35k overall. Volume was light, just over a million contracts. So right now, from a volume/delta perspective, there was not massive participation in the move down yesterday. While that continues, I'm still biased long.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2085.25 -> 2101.25
Value 2088.75 -> 2096.75
S1 - 2063, R1 2112

Daily Numbers
Range - 2085.25 -> 2101.25
Value - 2085.25 -> 2096.75
Globex - 2085.75 -> 2092.75

Settlement - 2086.50

Today only - 2093.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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15th April



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We didn't make it to the highs yet but I think that's still potentially on the cards. So today, we have to decide if we are going to run to the top or if we are now done and headed back to 2030. Obviously, we are looking at 2081.25 still - the closest line in the sand below.

Obviously that still remains unresolved. We had a push through 2081.25 and couldn't stay below it. There was no real reaction either way and we stayed within the overnight range all day. If we can break above 2100, I'd expect us to test the highs but right now, it's looking like there's no real commitment either side.

Volume was 1.2 million - on the low side.



The weekly profile shows fairly balanced trade. So the developing value are for the week is worth watching and fading the extremes is more likely to work if we have low volume, low commitment trade.



Longs need to watch the value low as well as the late pullback to 2085.75. For shorts, I'd prefer to see a test of the tops or weekly value. Although the overnight high holding could bring in sellers as there's not really much above us to play off.

It looks like we could start to chop, I'll be looking initially at volume and follow through - it could well be a slow day.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2075.75 -> 2101.25
Value 2085.75 -> 2095.50
S1 - 2063, R1 2112

Daily Numbers
Range - 2075.75 -> 2092 (pit) / 2092.50 (globex)
Value - 2082.25 -> 2091.25
Globex - 2087.25 -> 2097

Settlement - 2091

Today only - 2085.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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16th April, 2015



Volume just over a million yesterday. Yesterday we had:


Quoting 
It looks like we could start to chop, I'll be looking initially at volume and follow through - it could well be a slow day.

And in the AM, if you didn't catch the move off the open, it was painful going. We build a range, that broke upside & we built another range and that broke downside. Tricky days to trade because you need to stay focused through the chop to catch the break.

It does look like we are making a play for the high but looking left, we are at about the area the last move to the highs failed. So we may now be done & headed back down to 2030. We can see the small white line around 92.75, I'd expect that to hold on a test if we are really going to make a break.

Then again, I'd also expect us to be seeing more participation. So if we do get a test, I want to see above average volume or I can't see how we can really run the highs. Perhaps the buy volume is the other side of the highs....



The weekly profile implies we are just rotating around value and that fades are still in play. I don't see much use for this going into today.



In terms of levels to play off - yesterday we flipped around 2102.25 - and the overnight session has poked above that but not held it, so it's a level to keep in mind. The late push down was to 2098.75 but I think the key level again is the 2092.75 - which was Tuesdays high. I feel this needs to hold for us to run the highs.

If volume continues to be weak, it's hard to see how we can put in a good break. As I said, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the volume is there ABOVE the highs and that we poke weakly through and that triggers buying.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2075.75 -> 2105.50
Value 2086.25 -> 2100
S1 - 2063, R1 2112

Daily Numbers
Range - 2087.25 (globex) / 2094.25 (pit) -> 2105.50
Value - 2097.75 -> 2103.75
Globex - 2097.75 -> 2102.75

Settlement - 2099.75

Today only - 2092.75, 2098.75, 2102.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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17th April

Volume still weak, still in the range as per the past few days prep. Levels are holding but if you don't get on them at the extremes, it's painful trying to catch the follow through.



D shaped profile more or less -we made no new high yesterday and so fading extremes/value on a weekly basis is still in play.



We can still keep yesterdays 2092.75 on the radar today, although I'd expect a nose through at least today.

But really, not much to say - it's been a low volume rangey week and there's been no will to run the highs or send us on our way back down to 2030. Of course it will break at some point and the longer we stay here the more violent the break. But it's the end of the week. So if it hasn't done it by lunchtime, I'd say it's not going to happen today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2075.75 -> 2105.50
Value 2088.75 -> 2101.25
S1 - 2063, R1 2112

Daily Numbers
Range - 2089 (globex) / 2092.75 (pit) -> 2104.50
Value - 2095.25 -> 2101.25
Globex - 2096 -> 2101.50

Settlement - 2100.75

Today only - 2092.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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20th April



The top seems to have failed with a push down late on Friday. The Globex session has made up some ground, so it's down to whether the day session will come in and push us down again. I'm looking for confirmation that we are headed back down to 2030 (although we have kept falling short on previous attempts) and I need to see some confirmation of that.



We were below the major distribution from last week and have pushed back up into it. Into the pit session, we need to keep below 2085 or it'll likely be choppy, we can see that the prior week had little trading down to 2045, so we if we do get downside momentum, we could end up there quite quickly.



The Globex session is 100% long so far. So a reaction down is probable. I'd like to see us below 2085 and then through our 2081.25 level. We can see the 2087.25 level was a flip - it was support and became the high on Friday, so also looking for a reaction there.

So looking for an early rejection and some downside momentum. Upside, will be frustrating trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2064.50 -> 2105.50
Value 2086.25 -> 2101.75
S1 - 2058, R1 2099

Daily Numbers
Range - 2064.50 -> 2087 (pit) / 2101.75
Value - 2070.25 -> 2079.75
Globex - 2078.50 -> 2089.75

Settlement - 2075.75

Today only - 2085, 2087.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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22nd April



Volume just over a milion & looking right we are in an are we've traded a lot recently which tends towards is being choppy. The 81.25 level appears to be holding which indicates a run (or meandering stroll) to the highs if that holds into the pit session.



We can see above use we have a distribution above 2089 and a distribution below it. So we'll mark that as a line in the sand, if sellers come in at that point, we can short into 81.25.



Also we have a swing from yesterday PM at 2094.50, which is another line in the sand.

So looking at 89., 94.50 to see if sellers come in but otherwise biased to the upside based on 81.25 holding. Would love to see a test of 81.25 hold in the pit session. If 81.25 breaks, then bias changes to short and target will be 60.75.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2105.25
Value 2088.25 -> 2102.25
S1 - 2058, R1 2099

Daily Numbers
Range - 2087.25 -> 2103.50 (pit) / 2105.25
Value - 2090 -> 2095.50
Globex - 2080.75 -> 2098.59

Settlement - 2091

Today only - 2089, 2094.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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23 April



Volume still on the low side, 1.1 million again yesterday and we seem to be having trouble getting through 2105.50. We also can't seem to stay below 2081.25 below us and whilst we are between those prices, it's hard to have a specific bias.



We can see that the bulk of trading is not dissimilar to last week. We are in a range, building positions, waiting for the range to be resolved one way or the other.



Looking at yesterday, we have potential for resistance at 98.75, 94.00 is also a line in the sand and may be significant.

Other than that, it's a tough call unless we hit one of the weeks extremes and turn there, that should give us a run to the other side. In the middle, we have levels to play off but follow through is less certain.

Bias is slightly to the downside as we have completed a trip to the top but we may see a reaction at 2089. If we can get through that, we should get to out 2081.25 level.

Of course, we cannot dismiss a breakout above but there's really no volume up there. If we do breakout upside, we need to see some serious participation to join in long as volume has been so low up here.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2105.25
Value 2089.25 -> 2101.75
S1 - 2058, R1 2099

Daily Numbers
Range - 2080.25 / 2083.75 -> 2103.75
Value - 2092 -> 2103
Globex - 2087.50 -> 2101

Settlement - 2101.50

Today only - 2089, 2094.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
April 20th, 2015 05:19 PM

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24th April



Volume so far has been around 1.3 million, so a little healthier. We've taken a pop through the highs, no sign of buyers up there yet. Now we are looking for signs of failure or for signs that a good amount of buyers come in.



We can look at the main distribution which tops out about 2101.50. So looking for that to hold if we move down.



The late pullback in the PM was down to 2106, so watching also for a reaction there.

Basically today, it's really a matter of seeing if we actually get some commitment from one side or the other. It's possible that everyone is waiting to see what everyone else does.

If volume is low, then I'm looking for short term trades, not expecting much follow through. Other than that, just looking for momentum to the upside/downside. If we can get a reaction off the old high or yesterdays range/value range.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.50 -> 2114..50
Value 2086.25 -> 2102.75
S1 - 2058, R1 2099

Daily Numbers
Range - 2087.50 / 2094.75 -> 2114.50
Value - 2100.75-> 2114.25
Globex - 2103 -> 2113.25

Settlement - 2107

Today only - 2106

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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