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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,310 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old March 24th, 2015, 06:56 AM   #501 (permalink)
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24th March

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Still in the box, still waiting for a test of the extremes to confirm.

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Yesterday we had


Quoting 
The Globex session has stayed within the Friday range and we do NOT want the Monday pit session to do that. So looking for clues from the late pullback (2097.50) and the value/day range. We want a hold and for players to come in off that hold and get us out of this range. When the Monday overnight & pit session sessions are bound by Fridays range, it can be a painful few days.

And we went on to have a poor range day. So today we want to shake this range off. We have broken Fridays low of 2092 - but still keep an eye on that.

So really - watching the usual levels and looking for signs that we can get out of this range. If for example we start to head up, I'll take a long but be wary if we are too close to yesterdays low.

Patience is key. Of late there have been some opportunities on days that started slow but you had to be patient to get them and to not to reduce your account boredom trading.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2037.25 -> 2106.75
Value 2048.75 -> 2088.75
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2093.25 (globex) / 2094.25 (pit) -> 2107
Value - 2101.25 -> 2105.25
Globex - 2091.75 -> 2099.25

Settlement - 2094.75
Today - 2074.00-2074.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Last edited by DionysusToast; March 24th, 2015 at 10:12 AM.
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Old March 25th, 2015, 07:10 AM   #502 (permalink)
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25th March

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We manage to break out of Mondays range yesterday but we still have the 81.25 and the 74.50 below us, so I'm watching those to see if either attract buyers.

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We are still in the upper distribution from last week with the single at 74.00 to look out for.

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The good news is that we did break out of Fridays range yesterday - we had an attempt at the Globex high after a somewhat choppy morning and in the Globex session, we have consolidated.

We have durable goods at 8:30am, so we may move before the open but basically, I'll be looking at yesterdays low/value low for a reaction (really looking for either to provide resistance) and then looking at 81.25 and 74.50 as lines in the sand. I don't think you need to get long at 81.25 or 71.50 but rather wait to see if there is follow through on a reaction there and then jump on.

But then, I'm cautious....

Weekly Numbers
Range 2082.75 -> 2107
Value 2093.75 -> 205.25
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2083 -> 2100 (pit) / 2101 (globex)
Value - 2088.50 -> 2099.50
Globex - 2082.75 -> 2088.25

Settlement - 2085

Today - 2074.00-2074.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

And just for fun - we had a surprise rain in Bangkok yesterday and it obviously took the flood defenses by surprise too.. Here's a picture my friend took in the local supermarket.

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"Could be worse - could be raining"

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Old March 26th, 2015, 08:14 AM   #503 (permalink)
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26th March

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One issue with just trading the AM sessions is that you can go to bed before the good stuff happens. So I was a little surprised to see this today.

We've been as low as 1960 and so today, as with the day after any bid down day - we look out to see if there's a lot of volume one side or the other. We could see a snap back, we could see it carry on down. 1929 is the next line in the sand below and above us is 2060.75.

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Looking up - we can see we had a range with a top of 2066.75 yesterday before the late push down. We've gone straight down in the Globex session, so that session is almost 100% short. So there may be an initial snap back. I would not take that to mean we will go up all day, it may be just a re-balance off the open.

I won't pay much attention to the weekly profile. Just watch yesterdays low and 66.75 if we do head up. It's all about whether we get good volume & direction today. If we do, I'll be looking to jump on it.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2033.25 -> 2107
Value 2077.25 -> 2106.25
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2052.25 -> 2089.25
Value - 2060 -> 2082.50
Globex - 2033.25 -> 2056.50

Settlement - 2085

Today - 2074.00-2074.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old March 27th, 2015, 06:12 AM   #504 (permalink)
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27th March

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Decent volume yesterday but we didn't get anywhere. The AM Session was giving mixed signals and it was 'interesting' trading to say the least.

We have the 60.75 above and the 29.00 level below as lines in the sand. As of yet, there's been no real indication of whether this market will revisit the tops or carry on Wednesdays move down. It's a coin toss for me.

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We still have the 66.75 level from Wednesday and we can look at the late move down from Thursday with a low of 46.50 which is currently holding.

For me - it's still a case of which side sneezes first. We are close to significant levels above, so if we can get a test up there, I think it should bring in speculators whatever the result.

On the downside, I don't really see a good case for decent participation to the downside FROM HERE until we break the weeks low. So hoping for a test of 60/66.75 to "resolve" things and for traders to jump on the resulting move. With no decent test above, I expect moves down to be sluggish if they occur.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.25 -> 2107
Value 2053.25 -> 2106.25
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2033.25 (globex)/ 2036.25 -> 2058.75
Value - 2044.75 -> 2054.25
Globex - 2046.75 -> 2057.75

Settlement - 2048.50

Today - 2066.75, 2046.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old April 1st, 2015, 06:16 AM   #505 (permalink)
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1st April

Back after a short break

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The market seems to be fairly happy between 2029 & 2110.25 of late. The other lines we have seem to be on/off in terms of being significant so it's worth leaving then there.

With the push down overnight and rapid recovery, we can consider 2029 tested and look for confirmation of a move up with 2060.75 as a potential roadblock and 2081.25 as a more serious contender for a target.

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The weekly profile also confirms the 2080 level with the upper distribution from last week having a low around that area.

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The market really fell out of bed this morning whilst I was having my coffee. An April fools gag taken a bit too seriously? I couldn't believe my eyes the way it was selling off.

Monday and Tuesday were quite narrow. So into today looking for signs that buyers are stepping in after that 'test' - but it was a test when it was very thin trading so it might just be ignored & we could end up back in Mondays/Tuesdays range and doing not much at all. Still - we hit a tick shy of last weeks low, so for sure - SOMEBODY came in and took advantage of those prices.

A rejection of Tuesdays low from below is a possibility, so looking for sellers from there or Tuesdays value area which is well defined & seems significant.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.50 -> 2081.75
Value 2055.25 -> 2080.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2056.25 -> 2076.25 (pit) / 2076.75 (globex)
Value - 2066 -> 2074
Globex - 2033.50 -> 2060.50

Settlement - 2060.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old April 2nd, 2015, 06:11 AM   #506 (permalink)
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April 2nd

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Yesterday we had


Quoting 
With the push down overnight and rapid recovery, we can consider 2029 tested and look for confirmation of a move up with 2060.75 as a potential roadblock and 2081.25 as a more serious contender for a target.

At that point, we'd already hit 60.50, we managed another push up in the Globex session to 60.75 and then rolled over. So we are still bracketed by 2029 & 2060.50 and either could hold. Obviously if 2029 breaks, that could lead to a more significant sell off. If we pop through 60.50, I doubt there will be too much excitement.

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We can see somewhat of a double distribution on the weekly profile - so again, looking for a reaction at 2060. We do seem to be struggling to get down all the way to 2029, so keep an eye on the value low at 43.

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Yesterday we recovered most of the overnight push down before the pit session open and then we had a decent push down again at 9:30. After that we came back and rotated the rest of the day. The overnight session has so far stayed within that range and tomorrow is a holiday.

On that basis, it could be a slow day but we do have the employment numbers out at 8:30 along with trade balance.

Going in to the open, if the news is flat, then I'll be looking for yesterdays range/value for clues. and for a test of 2060.75.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.50 -> 2081.75
Value 2043-> 2068

Daily Numbers
Range - 2033.50 (globex) / 2039.75 (pit) -> 2059 (pit) / 2060.75 (globex)
Value - 2045.75 -> 2053.25
Globex - 2044 -> 2057

Settlement - 2053

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Last edited by DionysusToast; April 2nd, 2015 at 09:27 AM.
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Old April 6th, 2015, 06:37 AM   #507 (permalink)
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April 6th

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Holiday in Europe today, so it's been a slow one overnight. Not expecting a big day in the US, although the NFP was a big miss on Friday, which was a holiday and saw a big push down. That's a bit of a wildcard.

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Last weeks profile was cut off at the top by the upper distribution from the prior week. Really, not much to day about it other than watch last weeks value.

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We can see the big drop on Friday here. Volume was just over 1 million on Friday, so nothing to write home about.

So going into today, it's a bit of a crap shoot. The big dive down after NFP on a holiday day, Europe being closed. We are still between the 2029 & 2060.75 level, so one of those levels breaking/holding still has a decent chance of giving us some indication of a run. Otherwise, I think we have to let volume build up first to get a price to lean on.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.50 -> 2081.75
Value 2044.25 -> 2065.75
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2038 -> 2063.75 (pit) / 2064.75 (global)
Value - 2057.50 -> 2063.50
Globex - 2038.75 -> 2047.75

Settlement - not sure (CME website not updated) but looks about 2039.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Last edited by DionysusToast; April 6th, 2015 at 06:46 AM.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 07:33 AM   #508 (permalink)
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April 7th

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We had a big move up yesterday but we are still in a range. It was an odd day - as we moved up, we printed very little volume at any price. There was no real commitment. As such, a fall back through those thinly traded prices was always a potential but it didn't happen.

Total volume traded was under a million contracts - of course partly because it was Easter Monday in Europe and many traders had the day off. We are now close to the 81.25 level, so all eyes on that. We could very easily drop to 2060.75 because of the relative lack of support built below yesterday. We just didn't build much volume anywhere.

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This is something you don't see often!

Last weeks range is one to look out for as we couldn't break it yesterday. We can also see here the potential for a drop if we break 2070 to the downside. Looking at this, a drop to the high 40's wouldn't take much.

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The late push down yesterday was to 2072.25. The Globex low so far is 2070.25. As we get to the pit session open, I have an eye on 70.25 - whether we can hold it or not. I am also watching for any test of 81.25 to see what the result is as I think it'll bring in traders either way.

Between 70 & 80 - I'm not interested.

So for me going into today, I'm cautious - it could be another wild one. If we push down we could go as low as the high 40's or one of our long term levels could kick in. We don't really have supporting volume anywhere but of course that could develop as today progresses - which would mean a slower day but with something solid to lean on.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2033.50 -> 2081.75
Value 2044.25 -> 2065.75
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2038.75 / 2047 (pit) -> 2080
Value - 2063.25 -> 2079.75
Globex - 2070.25 -> 2077.50

Settlement - 2073.25

Today only - 2072.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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Old April 7th, 2015, 08:00 AM   #509 (permalink)
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nice analysis.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 07:24 AM   #510 (permalink)
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8th April

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Yesterday was not a holiday and volume was still fairly low. We got multiple tests of the 81.25 level but we just could not maintain that. So now eyes on the 60.75 level below to see if that holds for another push to the top of overall range.

There was never a real rush of sellers on those failures to stay above 81.25. We did get to the 72.25 level we were watching yesterday but only at the very end of the day.

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We can still see the huge thing area on this weeks profile and I think that we have to be cautious short into 60.75 but once through there, we could get to the high 40's.

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Yesterday was a bit rough. Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Between 70 & 80 - I'm not interested

On that first test of the highs, we got through the bump on the volume profile and there was a continuation trade short at 77.25 but we just couldn't get more than a few ticks through the pit session low. As it went back up to the highs, it was disheartening as you could see it would chop for a while and I really had little interest at that point.

So into today - overnight we are below value from yesterday, so watching for that to hold. I'm hoping we can push through 60 for a quick run down. If we get back above 72, I think it'll be choppy and be rough trade unless we can get up and pop through 80.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2038.74 -> 2082.75
Value 2065.25 -> 2081.75
S1 - 2038.75, R1 2080.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2067.25 -> 2082.75
Value - 2075 -> 2082
Globex - 2064.50 -> 2073.75

Settlement - 2067.75

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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