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DTs Pre Market Prep

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9th March

Us index futures rollover on Thursday - or rather, that is the official date. People can move their positions to the June contract whenever they like and of late, the rollover seems to have been active across 2-3 days. It used to be the markets would be rolled by lunchtime on Thursday. So keep an eye on the volume in the March and June contracts.



Friday was interesting. Going into Friday we had


Quoting 
Poor volume yesterday, just over a million. Range of the pit session was just over 10 points. Friday today, so unless there's some news moving the market - it's probably going to be dull.

And it certainly wasn't dull.

After every day with a big move, the talking heads come on TV and ascribe a cause du jour to the move. Job data was good, that means interest rate hikes are more likely. The reason this is interesting is NOT because interest rate hikes will cause a recession BUT because this gives money a new home to go to. One of the reasons this market has gone up so much, isn't so much because of optimism in the future but because - it had nowhere else to go. Isn't that heartwarming?

Now it might just have a new home....

So today we watch for the snapback that so often occurs after a big day but let's also consider the cause because we may be coming into a longer term correction if people start taking profits ahead of anticipated rate hikes.

We can see we've stopped at one of our levels, so that's a line in the sand going into today.



We have a single print on the weekly profile at 85 but basically it's 95 before we have any real volume. Keep an eye on both.



I don't have much off the daily profile - but really it's mostly a matter today to see if one side comes in, in force and going with it if they do.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2065.50 -> 2115.50
Value - 2093.25-> 2109.50
S1 2052.50, R1 - 2102.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2065.50 -> 2094.25 (pit) / 2103.50 (globex)
Value - 2067.25 -> 2084.25
Globex - 2067 -> 2074.25

Settlement - 2070.75

Today only - 2085, 2095

Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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10th March



Volume dropped off again on Monday. I still think we could pick up on a break of the Friday low but it was a bit of a grind yesterday.



The 68.25 level is basically holding but we aren't moving far away from it, so it still has a good chance of breaking.



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We have a single print on the weekly profile at 85 but basically it's 95 before we have any real volume. Keep an eye on both.

I still think we need to keep an eye on those levels.



We can see that we are still within Fridays value area. I think any trade within yesterdays range (including Globex) will be slow. I don't mind fading it but I am sure it'll be a grind.

I think the challenge today (and maybe this week) will be staying alert for when we do get a break.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2065.50 -> 2115.50
Value - 2093.25-> 2109.50
S1 2052.50, R1 - 2102.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2066 -> 2070.25 (pit) / 2082.50 (globex)
Value - 2073.50 -> 2079.50
Globex - 2072.50 -> 2078.25

Settlement - 2077.75

Today only - 2085, 2095

Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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11th March

Don't forget the rollover people.... 7am EST here and 11k traded in June contract, 139k traded in March. But keep an eye on it.



I think the ES must be watching our levels because yesterday we had a repeat at 2047 as the reaction at 2068 - pierced it & then bounced up. Next level down is 2019.75.



As usual - we can snap back at any time but today our overnight action is basically above settlement but in the midst of value, making a correction off the open unlikely but also more likely to be downside as overnight inventory is long. Still - it's just in the middle of yesterdays range so no great shakes.

Yesterday we had


Quoting 
I think the challenge today (and maybe this week) will be staying alert for when we do get a break.

The first hour was a tough grind but patience was rewarded with a big delta shift on the push up from 51.25.After lunchtime we went back to chop.

I'm neutral going in. We could see 2020 today but I'm just going to wait & see. I have a slight downside bias but I can wait till yesterdays low to break unless we get a test of yesterdays high/vah and see sellers come in from there.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2065.50 -> 2115.50
Value - 2093.25-> 2109.50
S1 2052.50, R1 - 2102.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2041.25 -> 2062.75 (pit) / 2078.25 (globex)
Value - 2047.25 -> 2057.25
Globex - 2042.50 -> 2052.25

Settlement - 2042

Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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13th March

Sorry for lack of prep yesterday, I was sick.

Today, here's the situation so far....



Volume about equal in both contracts. As we mentioned on Wednesday, the roll no longer takes place on the Thursday but tends to be spread out over multiple days.

I would expect most of the volume to be in June contract by lunchtime today but to me - it's not worth trading it whilst this is going on.

So be careful if you do and enjoy your day if you don't.

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16th March

Contract has rolled now. So a couple of things.

There's still trading in the March contract - about 70% of the June volume right now, so there may still be some rolling going on.

We have new levels:



We have fewer levels now. I always have a clean up when I roll - some will be spot on and some may need adjustment as we go.



We can see we are between 2 levels - 2029 below and 2060.75 above. So watch that range today.



I'm really not paying too much attention to last weeks profile or even Fridays. I will of course watch Fridays highs/lows/value but I'm going to spend today tuning into the new contract and just taking any obvious short term opportunities that arise. I want to acclimatize to this new contract, get a feel for it.

So don't be in a hurry to trade!

Weekly Numbers
- not watching them this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2032.50 ->2056.50 (pit) / 2061.25 (globex)
Value - 2034 -> 2045
Globex - 2037.25 -> 2053.25

Settlement - 2042.25

Today only - 2048.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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17th March



We had a nice push up off the open yesterday but the next few hours were quite painful. I was mostly on the sidelines anyway, letting the new contract play out. We still had a lot of volume in both contracts yesterday and right now March Volume is 50% of June volume.



As you can see straight up from the open and a globex session that is currently within yesterdays value area. That will probably break before the open but watching yesterdays value area and range today.

As per yesterday, I'm trying to just let it play out and take small chunks and establish prices to play off.

Weekly Numbers
- not watching them this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2037.25 (globex) / 2053.75 -> 2074
Value - 2063.25 -> 2071.75
Globex - 2037.25 -> 2053.25

Settlement - 2068.50

Today only - 2062.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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18th March



It's a relatively new contract this week in terms of volume just rolling into June. It's also FOMC day which historically has usually led to a pretty slow morning.

But like the rollover changing character in the past few years, so has FOMC day. We've had FOMC days where the AM has been a rip-roaring trade.

Today all eyes are on the interest rates. The Fed has been flip-flopping on this issue - hinting one way and the market reacts and hints another.

So into today - I'm not sure what to think. Trade or don't trade. I don't trade the US PM, so for me I think I'll watch the first 30 mins and if it's slow. I'll go do something else.



Yesterday we stayed in Mondays pit session range and are still in it in todays Globex session. So for this morning and considering what FOMC usually means, anything within this range is likely to be tough trade.

So for me. I will take a look. I have no bias going in or even scenarios that may play out. I have my levels and I have my suspicion it'll be a bit dull.

Weekly Numbers
- not watching them this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2056.25 -> 2070.50
Value - 2060.50 -> 2067.50
Globex - 2056.25 -> 2070

Settlement - 2066.25

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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19th March



We can see where the FOMC kicked in yesterday. It is possible we now revert back to the old range, so watch the boxed area if we go to 2110 and roll over.

Watch 2081.25 to 2110.



On a weekly basis, we can see that it's thin air between 2092 and 2075. So watch any move into that thin area for continuation.



Again, watch the overnight low as there's fresh air below. This has been an area of chop earlier this year but in very recent history, we can see not much traded below us, so a drop from here is quite possible. To the upside, a break of 2110 could also give us a run up. Value areas don't mean much today as it's such a stretch up.

Weekly Numbers
2037.25 -> 2099.75
2049.75 -> 2073.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2052.25 -> 2099.75
Value - 2054.50 -> 2086.50
Globex - 2092 -> 2099

Settlement - 2092.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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20th March



A dull day yesterday, volume to the low side with under 1.4M traded, we are still potentially "in the box, so an eye on 2074.50.



Not much to say here. A very narrow day yesterday, we were looking at a potential breakdown given Wednesdays move up but it was not to be.

So today being Friday and volume light so far overnight and no news of consequence today, our best chance of a move is breaking yesterdays range, retesting it and getting some continuation.

I'm not too excited about it though.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2037.25 -> 2099.75
Value 2048.75 -> 2084.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2076.50 -> 2089.50 (pit) / 2099 (globex)
Value - 2079 -> 2084.50
Globex - 2077.75 -> 2088.25

Settlement - 2081.50

Today - 2074.50

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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23rd March



Whilst we don't want to 'marry it' - the return to the range in the box is looking more attractive. So eyes on the all time high & the bottom of the box - 2074.50



Last weeks profile is showing 2 distributions with lowest time/volume area also around this price with the single print at 2074



The Globex session has stayed within the Friday range and we do NOT want the Monday pit session to do that. So looking for clues from the late pullback (2097.50) and the value/day range. We want a hold and for players to come in off that hold and get us out of this range. When the Monday overnight & pit session sessions are bound by Fridays range, it can be a painful few days.

Overall - looking to play the box but first, looking for clues to see if one of Fridays levels will hold off the open.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2037.25 -> 2106.75
Value 2048.75 -> 2088.75
S1 2065.25, R1 - 2119.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2077.75 / 2092.25 -> 2106.75
Value - 2099.25 -> 2106.25
Globex - 2093.25 -> 2106

Settlement - 2099.25
Today - 2074.00-2074.50, 2097.59

Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25

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