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DTs Pre Market Prep

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12th June

A bit early today, so we have to consider that Globex might change things a little after I post this.

We have almost made it up to the 1673 level that marked a rejection on 28th May. I suspect we will pop through this and make a run for the 1685.75 as we are so close.





We do also have resistance around the 1660 area too and 1666.50 area. Today is unlike yesterday.



The Globex session is at the top end of yesterdays range.

We have PPI at 8:30am and UOM consumer sentiment/inflation at 9:55.

If we move down off the open, I'll be looking for rejection off the globex low or yesterdays value high. If we pop 73, then I don't see anything above us but the all time high.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1627 -> 1672.75
Value 1626.75> 1662.25

Daily Numbers
Range 1648.25(globex)/ 1660.75(Pit) -> 1671.75
Value 1662.75 -> 1668.25
Globex 1666.25 -> 1672.75
Other 1653.25, 1660.25, 1673, 1685.75,

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15th June

Bernanke is speaking later on this week and it's possible that we move sideways ahead of that. Eurex AM session was quite slow. On the other hand, we are very close to the adjusted all time high and a break of that might get people excited.



We've had 6 straight days of higher highs & higher lows and it was 'just about' higher on Friday with a poke through that 1673 level. I have to say, that level seems pretty tenuous to me but obviously some people offloaded there.



Going into today I don't have much in the way of levels until we go back to 1660.50. That is the low of the area we moved up to and then below that 1649.25 - the point we 'broke out' from.



You can see the area at the top of the profile where we ended last week. Looking at the week, we moved up,built volume, moved up again, built volume and had a big push up and built volume at the end. That sort of activity - 2 sided trading/price acceptance at successively higher prices is indicative of a further move up. So I think the balance of probability is with a push through the highs.

I would expect some profit taking at the highs though but often there is so much excitement when breaking through the high, it just skyrockets. It's always funny listening to the pit squawk when it breaks a high. Always reminds me of being at a kids birthday party and saying "who wants some candy".

Globex is above Fridays value so a test of that before a move up would be nice.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1626.00 -> 1674.25
Value 1626.75-> 1664.25
S1 1643, R1 1686

Daily Levels
Range 1666.25 (globex)/1667 -> 1674.25
Value 1667.75 -> 1670.75
Globex 1669.75 - 1675.75
Other 1660.50, 1649.25

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16th July

Not much to say today. I expect it to be slow until Thursday AM when Bernanke testifies.



Of course if we do break through the adjusted all time high @ 1685.75, that should spark some life into the market.



We managed to work our way through the 1672.75 level and that might end up being resistance but it's only 2 ticks above yesterdays low, so I think if we are down there, we'll probably see 1672.25.



Yesterday we took a peek down to the overnight VAL and so we might get the VAL/VAH from this mornings Globex session seeing the market turn (1676.50 -> 1678). As you can see, this mornings Globex session is entirely within yesterdays pit session. Nothing has changed. On the bright side, if nothing has changed, then yesterdays levels should hold, right? Well - probably...

Other than that, not much to say other than it'll probably be slow and grindy and fading the ranges for 6-8 ticks might be the only game in town.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1626.00 -> 1674.25
Value 1626.75-> 1664.25
S1 1643, R1 1686

Daily Levels
Range 1669.75 (globex)/1672.25 -> 1679.50
Value 1674.75-> 1678.25
Globex 1674.25 -> 1678.75
Other 1660.50, 1649.25, 1685.75, 1672.75

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17th July

I'm doing this prep much earlier than usual. Mostly because I'll be starting earlier than usual.

Yesterdays move down caught me by surprise, my expectation was that we'd be either within the range or pushing for a new high. So I'm back to looking at the downside to make sure I am ready for that eventuality.



We can see from last weeks profile on the left that we have a low volume node at 1665.50 which is about where we stopped yesterday. Working our way down to 1660.25 will probably be a bit of a grind and below that we have fresh air down to 1649.50.



We have our "adjusted all time high" at 1685.75 to the upside which should cause some excitement if it breaks but we also have 1660.25 to the downside with little activity between that and 1649 to support us.

On to today, the reason for the early start is Bernankes testimony. Apparently they will be releasing a transcript at 8:30am EST so that the market can digest it. Quite how that will work I don't know but it could well be that by 9:30am the day is done in terms of moving.



The 1672.25 level seems to be a little sticky with the Globex high just poking up through that area so far.



Other than that, Globex has stayed within yesterdays value area and seems to be in a holding pattern.

In summary, the bigger picture is Bernanke's testimony and breaking out of this 1660.25-> 1685.75 range. Not much more to say because we'll have a lot more action to trade off once the testimony is out.

Weekly Levels (this week)
Range 1665.50 -> 1679.50
Value 1671.50 -> 1678.50
S1 1643, R1 1686

Daily Levels
Range 1666.50 -> 1679.50
Value 1666.50 -> 1673
Globex 1667.25 -> 1672.75
Other 1649.50, 1660.25, 1672.75, 1685.75

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18th July

Unemployment claims at 8:30 didn't do much this morning and we have very little on the cards tomorrow either.



Looking at the weekly profile, it's been a very narrow week with less than a 15 point range for the week. Volume had been quite low with Monday seeing just 911k contracts traded. Yesterday was 1.4 million contracts.



The market has pivoted around the 1672.25 level from the end of May and VPOC for the week is 1677.50, so expect that area to be slow and choppy.

Bernanke is speaking at 10:00 but I don't see that this will move the market much. The market is balanced right now and we are seeing 2 sided trading which is quite normal for the summer time.

We do still have well defined levels above 1685.75 and below 1660.50 that could produce a nice run if we break them.

Weekly Levels
Range 1665.75 -> 1680.50
Value 1671.50 -> 1678
S1 1643, R1 1686

Daily Levels
Range 1665.75 (globex) /1673.25 (pit) -> 1680.50
Value 1675.00 -> 1678.00
Globex 1671.75 -> 1679.75 (as at 8:50am EST)
Other 1649.50, 1660.25, 1672.75, 1685.75

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19th July

Courtesy of yesterday, we now have a new all time high of 1688.50.



Still - it wasn't really a huge push up was it? In this mornings globex we fell back into this weeks developing value area.



No news today. Off the open, look for rejection of yesterdays value and a drop back into last weeks value or a push for 1700. We could easily make 1700 today but we need to get back into yesterdays value first.

The overnight low is 1675.25 and that may well act as a short term line in the sand. For sure, if we go much below that, then the chances of hitting 1700 today diminish.

It's pretty much a "play it by ear day today". It almost seems like we HAVE TO hit 1700 today and that may be the reason we don't.

Weekly Levels
Range 1665.75 -> 1688.50
Value 1671.00 -> 1678.50
S1 1643, R1 1686

Daily Levels
Range 1671.75 (globex) /1677.50 (pit) -> 1688.50
Value 1682.00 -> 1687.00
Globex 1675.00 -> 1682.25
Other 1649.50, 1660.25, 1672.75, 1675.25, 1685.75

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22nd July



We are sitting just below the 1700 level. We have to break that at some point. I would expect a positive report on Existing Home Sales at 10:00am today to do that for us if we haven't already. With news like that at 10:00am it could be a slow grindy start, so look out for that and a change after the news.



It's worth considering where we are going right now. We don't tend to move one way and as yet we have not made significant new highs. When we do come back down, I'm looking at the 'base' we built last week - 1665.75 or 1650 as a potential new range low. If that does play out, then we should have a period where the market is ranging between the highs and the range low. We need to balance out before we move higher and



Looking at last week, the POC is 1677.50, way below where we are now. So we are quite a way above "fair value" from a weekly perspective. Last weeks value high is 1679.50.



We've move up in the Globex session and whilst we do have a good shot at 1700, I want to see more volume trading at these high prices before I get too excited about continuation up. It may be that we need to come back down to the high 1670's before we can move up again. Basically, these high prices have not seen much volume and as such I consider them weak.

In terms of today, the 1700 to the upside is obviously interesting. In addition to that whether we go back into Fridays range/value and how it reacts to that. If it's really strong, it shouldn't dip too far into Fridays value area, especially if that happens after we pop 1700.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1665.75 -> 1690.50
Value 1670.50 -> 1679.50
S1, 1673.25, R1 - 1698.00

Daily Numbers
Range 1675.25 (pit)/ 1678.50 -> 1690.50
Value 1681.25 -> 1685.75
Globex 1688.25 -> 1694.25
Other 1660.25, 1665.75, 1672.75, 1675.25, 1685.75

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23rd July

Not much to add today as we are in pretty much the same position as yesterday. We are still very slowly creeping up to 1700. The only thing of note since yesterday is that our old high from May has now put in an appearance as support (well 1585.50).



If we manage to stay above yesterdays VAH (1691.75) into the open, then the test of that area will be very interesting.



Right now, everyone seems to be waiting to see what everyone is going to do. Perhaps this will last till the end of summertime or maybe once 1700 is hit, we'll get some volatility back.

It might be a good day to refine your scalping skills. Less than 900k contracts traded yesterday. Volume in Globex is really low and the Eurex morning session was pretty slow too.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1665.75 -> 1690.50
Value 1670.50 -> 1679.50
S1, 1673.25, R1 - 1698.00

Daily Numbers
Range 1685.50 -> 1693 (pit)/ 1694 (globex)
Value 1689 .00 -> 1691.75
Globex 1690.25 -> 1695.50
Other 1660.25, 1665.75, 1672.75, 1675.25, 1685.75

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24th July



Still in the same range as the past few days. The prior all time high of 1685.75 is still giving us support (albeit a few ticks higher) and we still didn't hit 1700 yet.



The weekly profile doesn't tell us much other than we have a 10 point range with value in the middle. Volume yesterday was light again with only 977k contracts traded.



The overnight range and value aren't much changed since yesterday. So pretty much the same drill as yesterday, waiting for something to shake things up a little. New Home Sales @ 10am may do that.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1685.50 -> 1695.50
Value 1688.25 -> 1692.75

S1, 1673.25, R1 - 1698.00

Daily Numbers
Range 1686 -> 1695 (pit)/ 1695.50 (globex)
Value 1687.50 -> 1691.00
Globex 1687.00 -> 1694.00
Other 1660.25, 1665.75, 1672.75, 1675.25, 1685.75

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25th July

We got a little bit of excitement yesterday with chatter of a German downgrade giving traders a reason to do something.



We came back down to the 1672.25 area we were watching the market rotate around last week. We do have another level slightly below that we have been watching 1666.50 which is a stronger "line in the sand" in my opinion because a break of that could see us at 1650 in a few days.



Still, the range on the day was only 17 points, which isn't massive. Volume was 1.5 million, so this was hardly a massive sell off. I think it just gave us an excuse to be directional after days of sluggish action.

We do have unemployment claims and durable goods at 8:30. If that doesn't move it, then we might be in for another lackluster day and a return back up to make up yesterdays ground. If we get bearish move, then I'm more inclined to think we'll see a break of 1666.50 and a run to 1650. So, options are open.



Value is above is for the week, so upside we need to get back into that, so look out at 86.75 if we move up. Note that the value area for the week barely changed yesterday. We have not yet build volume lower down.



The Globex sessions has gone as low as 1671.75 so far but is now headed back to yesterdays value. Whether we reject/go back to yesterdays value should be an early heads-up off the open.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1671.75 -> 1695.50
Value 1686.75 -> 1695.25
S1, 1673.25, R1 - 1698.00

Daily Numbers
Range 1677.25 -> 1694.50
Value 1679.00> 1686.00
Globex 1671.75-> 1684.50
Other 1660.25, 1665.75, 1672.75, 1675.25, 1685.75

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