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Still in the overall range but fortunately we got well out of Mondays range. So again, looking for it to break out of this zone for a clearer picture.
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Yesterday is one of those "looks easier in the rear view mirror" days. In the morning, we fall back into Mondays range and as expected that was pretty choppy and the first hour was very tough for me & other traders I chat to".
My favorite comment was "This is ugly..."
We did nearly get down to yesterdays VAL and we did move up with a decent swing when that got rejected. A move I got caught on the wrong side of.
So today looking to see if we can survive a downside test and then finally get outside this range and start marking some easier to read levels.
Below us we have the single print at 2058.75, the VAH at 2058 and then the late pullback to 2052.75. I think if any of these hold, buyers will be a bit more confident. If not, I think it's tradeable but the action wont be anywhere near as clean as if we break this range.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2036.50 -> 2066.50
Value - 2040.25 -> 2052.75
S1 1995, R1 - 2089.25
Daily Numbers
Range - 2040.50 /2043.25 (pit) -> 2066.50
Value - 2046.50 -> 2058
Globex - 2059 -> 2064
Settlement - 2052.75, 2058.75
Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
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We've popped the top of the range and also through the old high at 2068.25. Volume is diminishing though - there's been no 'excitement' about this break as yet...
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The top of the white box is around 2062.50 - so we really want to see it stay above that or we risk falling back into the range. So that's a line in the sand for me.
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The weekly profile shows a distribution 2058.75-> 2064.75. Ideally, again I would like to see the top of that hold. If we go down to 2058.75, I feel we'll get to the lower distribution 2045.
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We can see that yesterday was fairly balanced with a push thru 2068.25 towards the end of the day before falling back. The bigger push up has been in the overnight session, so the first job today is for the market to hold on to that and try to keep us above these levels. If we can hold yesterdays high, that would be ideal as it should give other buyers confidence and give us a high probabaility move.
So into the open - looking for signs of continuation upwards, possibly after a downside test. 62.50,64.75 or 68.25...
If it drops down - I think it's lower confidence trading. Less people jumping on it.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2036.50 -> 2079.50
Value - 2040.25 -> 2061.75
S1 1995, R1 - 2089.25
Daily Numbers
Range - 2053.25 -> 2069.75
Value - 2058.25 -> 2064.75
Globex - 2058.50 -> 2079.50
Settlement - 2065.75
Today - 2058.75, 2062.50, 2064.75
Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
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Last edited by DionysusToast; February 12th, 2015 at 08:53 AM.
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Looks like a grind up, we are holding above the hold high, no real downside test yet and not much volume. We've backed off 2100 a few times and maybe there's some excitement above there. But I'm not holding my breath.
We saw the return of some depth yesterday with 1000's showing up at times and 5-600's being the norm on he DOM. So watch out for changes in depth as a signal for volatility to change.
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In terms of downside references 2080.75 (pullback after breaking the high) is still of interest as is the old high 2088.75.
The late pullback yesterday was to 2093, which is holding in the overnight session. So into the open looking to see the reaction at either 2093 or 2098.75. If either holds, we should at least see the other. We basically had 2 trading ranges yesterday, so it may well be one of those days when the opportunities come early or after a long wait.
Volume is well below average right now - 6:40am. So an eye on that as we open too. Yesterday volume was below average into the open but it really picked up at 10am and then dropped off again. Just to keep us alert, I guess...
Weekly Numbers Range - 2036.50 -> 2094.50
Value - 2039.75 -> 2068.75
S1 2055, R1 - 2113
Daily Numbers
Range - 2080.75 / 2086.25 (pit) -> 2098.75
Value - 2090.50-> 2098
Globex - 2093.50-> 2098.50
Settlement - 2096
Today - 2080.75, 2093
Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
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Not much activity at the top, volume has tapered off a bit with just over 1.1 million traded yesterday. And we settled 2 ticks under the prior days settlement.
Still watching 80.75 as per the red line above. As of now we are stalled at the old high 88.75, so a push up from here should being in a bit of confidence.
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We are obviously in a range, so obviously looking for signs of breaking either side. Looking at yesterdays range/value and the weekly range.
We got down to 88.50 yesterday pit session - a tick through the old high. We dipped deeper in during last nights Globex session, so watching that area carefully.
Also - still with an eye on the liquidity.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2080.75 -> 2098.75
Value - 2088.75 -> 2096.75
S1 2055, R1 - 2113
How do you define the globex session? I thought it's from 10.15pm(GMT+1) till 15.30pm(GMT+1). So from the Closing after 22.00pm till the opening. Or am I wrong here?
