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DTs Pre Market Prep

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27 Jan



The markets reaction to the Greek elections was muted to say the least. I think it still pays to be wary about news from Ukraine or Greece.

1.3 million contracts traded yesterday and we had more time to make a decision yesterday. We were looking for the breakout point to hold and it did but it held in the Globex session. So that pearl of wisdom didn't do us much good in the day session.

Today, I'm looking for signs that we are taking a run for the highs. So eyes on 2068.25. If we can get through there, we should expect a push up. If there's no push up there, then I believe that sellers will smell blood and push us down quickly again. Failures to get through the high usually gives sellers confidence and of course, the late longs will bail fairly quickly.



In terms of areas that would give longs more confidence, I think yesterdays low (2034.50) or value low (2042.50) holding would give buyers confidence. Globex is fairly neutral at the time of typing (3am EST), so not much clue right now about what we'll do at the open.

Yesterdays Value high is currently holding, which is very bullish and of course needs to be considered if it's still holding into the open.



The best opportunity yesterday IMO was the pullback to 2040. We had the initial pushes down and then built volume from 2038-2040. The shorts in that area stopped out (you could see the acceleration) and then we came back to test 2040 - well, we actually went down to 2039.25 but this is an illiquid market, so that's close enough. Not an easy trade to hold but a fairly clear opportunity, especially considering it's been a little murky lately.

The swing sizes are getting smaller now and although the market can still slip 5 ticks in seconds, it's become much more manageable. Hopefully, we'll see some more liquidity providers jump in.

Also of not yesterday - someone spoofing the offer around 2040 and absorbing selling on the bid before driving it up. I'm sure the CME 'spoof police' will catch them....

So ideally a pullback to a reference point from yesterday would be the easiest long and caution as we get to 2068.25.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1997.50 -> 2062.50
Value - 2003.25 -> 2034.75
S1 2027.25, R1 - 2077.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2025.50 (globex) / 2034.50 (pit) -> 2054
Value - 2042.50 -> 2051
Globex - 2051.25 -> 2055

Settlement - 2053.50

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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28th January



Another wild day yesterday, just under 2 million contracts and some iffy earnings/dollar strength blamed for the initial move down.

Looking left, there's really nothing I can use to get a bias right now, so looking to play local action that develops intraday.



The late pullback before the close was at 2022, which is close to VAL. Worth keeping an eye on. Volumse so far is above average in the Globex session and we've tagged the 2047 level (well 2 ticks short) in the Globex session and we've seen sellers come in from there. So we should be alert for a continuation of that which will in my opinion put the buyers off. Mostly because it looks like they tried and failed. So anyone short term speculating today should be taking that into account.



Interestingly the pullbacks yesterday were fairly small - some in the 20 tick range bus mostly 8-15 ticks. So watch the pullback sizes today as they might help us if we get a directional move.

So no real bias but looking for continuation down to encourage shorts, especially if we can crack yesterdays low. Watching 22 for a potential hold.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2013.25 -> 2055
Value - 2028.75 -> 2047.75
S1 2027.25, R1 - 2077.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2013.25 (pit) -> 2037 (pit) / 2055 (globeX)
Value - 2021.50 -> 2032
Globex - 2028.25 -> 2040.75

Settlement - 2030

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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29th January



Once again, hard to choose a bias as we are still in the choppy zone to our left. Last time we got as far down as 70.25
, so eyes on that and of course below is the more significant level - 1961 below. I expect if that breakes, we may be in for a trip to the low 1800s again.



Yesterday was a down day even before the FOMC. Like any large down day, value area won't mean much and first thing we look for is a snap back up which could be extensive. If course, it could go either way but on the way up we'll have new shorts being stopped out. So today - just looking to see which side is dominant and then looking for a way in.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1987.75 -> 2055
Value - 2021.75 -> 2047.75
S1 2027.25, R1 - 2077.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1991.25 -> 2038.75 (pit) / 2046.50 (globeX)
Value - 2014.25 -> 2034.75
Globex - 1987.75 -> 1999.25

Settlement - 1991.50

Today - 2016

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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30th January



Last trading day of the month, so we could get a push up - be alert for that. We had good volume yesterday and it looks like we are headed to the top of this range again. So if we move up, should be a high confidence play. So we look at the potential obstacles...



We are at the 19.75 area right now and there is a possibility that this will hold. So that's a level to look out for. Any failure at the prior day high can always bring sellers in and that could mean revisiting the low of the range.



Yesterday we has


Quoting 
Yesterday was a down day even before the FOMC. Like any large down day, value area won't mean much and first thing we look for is a snap back up which could be extensive

We took back the area from the breakdown point but this was not the sort of snap back I expected. My expectation is that a snap back would be on from the open. So what we really had yesterday was a test of the range low.

A retrace to yesterdays VAL or the breakout point at 2010.25 would be good - seeing buyers step in at this point should put the sellers off.

So going in with a long bias, preferring a downside first & wary of 2019.75.


Weekly Numbers

Range - 1982 -> 2055
Value - 2012.25 -> 2053.25
S1 2027.25, R1 - 2077.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1982 -> 2019.50
Value - 1983.50 -> 2005
Globex - 1987.75 -> 1999.25

Settlement - 2018.50

Today - 2016, 2010.25

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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2nd February



Looking at this, it is possible that our range is narrowing - 1984 as a low and 2019.75 as a high - or those are the longer term levels we've moved around the past 2 days.



I had a long bias Friday but with a failure to get through the prior days high, sellers jumped in. So today be wary that we may stay in that range, if so that would be tough trading. A break upside keeps us in the chop zone to the left and a break downside gives us the potential of a run to 1960.



A fairly wide range day on Friday and not an awful lot to play off.

So a hold of the extremes 84->19,.75 is on the cards and we've already tested the low so we may open and move to the high. So off the open a moderately confident long. What we really want is a breakdown.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1982 -> 2055
Value - 1989.75 -> 2034.75
S1 1962.50, R1 - 2034.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1986.25 -> 2017.25 (pit) / 2020.50 (globex)
Value - 1996.25 -> 2009.75
Globex - 1984 -> 1996

Settlement - 1988.50

Today - 1984,2019.75

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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3rd February



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Looking at this, it is possible that our range is narrowing - 1984 as a low and 2019.75 as a high - or those are the longer term levels we've moved around the past 2 days.

We did have a push down to 1975 but back into the range. So again, looking for the range to hold and we've already hit the upside overnight.

As per yesterday - a break upside is back into the range from the past weeks and a break down has more potential. So into today just watching the range and playing off intraday areas that develop.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1982 -> 2055
Value - 1989.75 -> 2034.75
S1 1962.50, R1 - 2034.50

Daily Numbers

Range - 1973.74 -> 2018.50
Value - 1983.75 -> 2000.25
Globex - 2007-> 2016.50

Settlement - 2017

Today - 1984,2019.75

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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4th February



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
As per yesterday - a break upside is back into the range from the past weeks and a break down has more potential. So into today just watching the range and playing off intraday areas that develop.

And we broke up and it was tough action in the AM, which is when I trade. So now I'm hoping we can carry on up and NOT bounce off the outer range as above. That gets us out of the chop zone.



Yesterday we had the AM high at 2034.50 and a late pullback to 2032 - so that's the area I'd like to see a pullback. Up from there and I think we'll have plenty of longs joining in. Of course we have already been there overnight. So we may be tested and upwards already.

For shorts - I'll play intraday leve;s but looking for 2019.75 to be tested - again because I think it will draw attention if it does.

If we break 19.75, I would like to see us pull away and them come back and retest it. For a later long.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1973.50 -> 2044
Value - 1976.50 -> 2025.50
S1 1962.50, R1 - 2034.50

Daily Numbers

Range - 2007 (globex) / 2021 (pit) -> 2044
Value - 1983.75 -> 2000.25
Globex - 2033.25-> 2043

Settlement - 2042

Today - 2032, 2034.50

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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5th February



Still no clear direction. Still in the chop zone, still looking to see what happens when we get to 2061 area - see if we can break the range or if we are still trapped in it.

We have now been down to test the inner range - failing to get down to 2019.50 by a point and so with that tested, we could see some buyers jump in. The test was overnight and there was a reaction. So we just need that to carry into the day session.



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Yesterday we had the AM high at 2034.50 and a late pullback to 2032 - so that's the area I'd like to see a pullback. Up from there and I think we'll have plenty of longs joining in. Of course we have already been there overnight. So we may be tested and upwards already.

We did get a reaction there in the morning and moved up but it was very choppy and we ended up giving up the gains. We can see a nice distribution on the volume profile from yesterday, so I'm looking for a reaction around the value area today.

We've taken a dip down to test the inner range overnight but made a good recovery which does give some cause to consider the upside. Still - it's hard to have a strong bias.

So looking for intraday levels today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1973.75 -> 2049.25
Value - 1988.50 -> 2049
S1 1962.50, R1 - 2034.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2029.25 -> 2049.25
Value - 2035.75 -> 2043.75
Globex - 2020.75 -> 2040

Settlement - 2030

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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9th Feb



Friday we had


Quoting 
Still no clear direction. Still in the chop zone, still looking to see what happens when we get to 2061 area - see if we can break the range or if we are still trapped in it.

So we pushed through the top of the range and now have fallen back. We got almost to our old high of 2068.25. This is not what we wanted in terms of getting clean action but today going in with a short bias looking for a move to the bottom of the range over the next few days and looking for this range to continue.



Looking at Friday, we pushed up to 2054 into the close, so that area is worth a look and it's also the VAL. Globex is short so far (2:30am EST) and so there could be an initial adjustment up off the open.

So biased downwards because we've failed to hold the high of the range, of course we could make another run for it, so as usual confirmation from how it develops intraday.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1973.75 -> 2068
Value - 2015 -> 2066.50
S1 1995, R1 - 2089.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2044.50 -> 2068
Value - 2054 -> 2067
Globex - 2041 -> 2050.50

Settlement - 2053

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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10th February



Volume is tapering off. We were hoping for resolution yesterday and didn't get it. We've popped the top of the range and fallen back into it but there's no confirmation we are now headed to the bottom of he range.



It was a narrow range yesterday. So it's pretty much open now - a move to the top and through - or traverse to the bottom.



In terms of things you don't want to see at the start of the week - the above is in my top 1. This is often how we get stuck in a range for the week. Sunday overnight, Monday day, then Monday night all in the same narrow area. So today, watching these extremes/value area and ready for rangebound behavior.

Really not much to play off except this developing range and intraday areas that develop.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1973.75 -> 2068
Value - 2015 -> 2066.50
S1 1995, R1 - 2089.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2036.50 -> 2051.75
Value - 2042.50 -> 2050
Globex - 2042.50 -> 2047.75

Settlement - 2042.50

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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