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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,613 / 918
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old January 20th, 2015, 10:05 AM   #451 (permalink)
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Hi Pete,
I was wondering what the significance of the 1960 level is on the ES?
Big Mike mentioned this level on the ESpoonalysis a couple of times and now that you have mentioned 1961, I was wondering what is special about that number.......
Thanks!

Previous swing low from December.

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Old January 20th, 2015, 12:06 PM   #452 (permalink)
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ES

Thanks, it was a nice short around 23

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Old January 21st, 2015, 05:08 AM   #453 (permalink)
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21st January


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Market is still in the range and still tough to call in terms of bias. Volatility was somewhat reduced yesterday, so be aware of any additional reductions in volatility today. Yesterdays high was 26.50, close to the high on the 15th of 27.25 so a break of that level might bring in some buyers and trigger some stops. So watch that area.

Yesterday we said


Quoting 
So using last weeks prices for reference. It would be difficult to have a strong directional bias going into today. We are in the middle of last weeks range, we are in the middle of last weeks range but in a period of overall low liquidity/high volatility.

So one eye on volatility (or lack thereof) and one eye on the market making a break.

And that is still valid today.

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Yesterday we said


Quoting 
I'd like to see us test either 2003 or 2023.75 before making a trade. I also have an eye on Fridays lows but they are so far away I rather hope I'd be in a trade way before we got there. For now - I just want to see what happens at those 2 prices. I think testing/breaking either is going to attract attention.

We got as high as 23.25 early in the day and we the market did hold 03.50 for a while but it broke down further but with no follow through.

So today basically looking at an expanded weekly range 97.50 at the bottom and 26.50-27.25 at the top. It may be tough going between those prices again.

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A choppy day yesterday unless you caught it early on. This is very volatile but it's not swinging around as much as the prior 2 weeks. The real test will be how much we move when we get out of this range. So keep an eye on the volatility. It's still a tough trade in my opinion.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1970.25 -> 2051.75
Value - 1974 -> 2019
S1 1992.50, R1 - 2069.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1997.50 -> 2023.25 (pit) / 2026.50
Value - 2000.75 -> 2013.75
Globex - 2012.50 -> 2021.50

Settlement - 2016.75

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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Old January 21st, 2015, 05:42 AM   #454 (permalink)
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@DionysusToast

Peter

It is not my attention to pollute your thread, only an FYI (please comment)

I'm seeing /CL broken into night (Globex) and day (CME, pit) sessions

Specifically I have Frankfurt/ London 0200amET to 07:59:59amET

And CME at 0800amET to 01:59:59amET

My reason for 8am is folks tend to front run the pit open

Two tick volume/ price profile using Sierra Chart

My2cents

-Bill

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Old January 21st, 2015, 10:03 AM   #455 (permalink)
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@DionysusToast

Peter

It is not my attention to pollute your thread, only an FYI (please comment)

I'm seeing /CL broken into night (Globex) and day (CME, pit) sessions

Specifically I have Frankfurt/ London 0200amET to 07:59:59amET

And CME at 0800amET to 01:59:59amET

My reason for 8am is folks tend to front run the pit open

Two tick volume/ price profile using Sierra Chart

My2cents

-Bill


Not quite sure what your platform/session setup has to do with Peter's ES thread.

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Old January 21st, 2015, 12:25 PM   #456 (permalink)
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Uhhhh

Errrrrr

Ummmmmm

Alex, breaking the profile into session(s) ??

-Bill

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Old January 22nd, 2015, 05:03 AM   #457 (permalink)
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@DionysusToast

Peter

It is not my attention to pollute your thread, only an FYI (please comment)

I'm seeing /CL broken into night (Globex) and day (CME, pit) sessions

Specifically I have Frankfurt/ London 0200amET to 07:59:59amET

And CME at 0800amET to 01:59:59amET

My reason for 8am is folks tend to front run the pit open

Two tick volume/ price profile using Sierra Chart

My2cents

-Bill

The ES really has just one session - but I too make my own 'custom session' to coincide with the pit session/stock market times.

It's good I think to have the VP reset at that time to get a view on the activities new to the session.

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Old January 22nd, 2015, 05:22 AM   #458 (permalink)
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22nd January

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Volume is tailing off but liquidity is not coming back and we still have a very stable ES. Going into today, many people will be looking for upside continuation.

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Yesterday we said


Quoting 
So today basically looking at an expanded weekly range 97.50 at the bottom and 26.50-27.25 at the top. It may be tough going between those prices again.

For upside continuation, it would be good to see us hold that 26.50-27.25 area from above. I think that will give buyers confidence.

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We are holding above that now in the Globex session but it is still quite close, so if we do break down through there, watch the late pullback down to 2016.25 from yesterday.

I was looking for strength yesterday on a break above 27.25 but it just fell back down. No-one jumped on it breaking above that range and so I think we have to be aware that it's quite possible we fall back into the range and have more volatile chop. Based on yesterdays action I think the upside will probably be fairly choppy until we get through 2050 and then hopefully, we'll see an attempt at run up to the highs. Certainly below 16.25, I think it'll be tough trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1997.50 -> 2035.75
Value - 2005.75 -> 2021.50
S1 1992.50, R1 - 2069.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2005.25 -> 2032.75 (pit)
Value - 2019 -> 2030
Globex - 2025.50 -> 2034.75

Settlement - 2026.50

Today - 2026.50-2027.25, 2016.25

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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Old January 23rd, 2015, 06:52 AM   #459 (permalink)
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23rd January

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We are at an inflection point - 2062 is a level plenty of people are looking at and also signifies us breaking out of the range. If we break the range with conviction, we should hit a new high.

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To the downside, trading was thin above 2046, so if it does roll over - it should get there fairly quickly. So if we roll at the high or break the Globex low, look for that as the next area to the downside for buyers to step in. Below that it's a bit hard to call where buyers might come.

It's still extremely volatile.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1997.50 -> 2062
Value - 2004.25 -> 2030.25
S1 1992.50, R1 - 2069.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2019.25 -> 2059.25
Value - 2027.25 -> 2046.25
Globex - 2052.75 -> 2062

Settlement - 2056.50

Today - 2046, 2062

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806 still extremely volatile.

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Last edited by DionysusToast; January 23rd, 2015 at 07:01 AM.
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Old January 26th, 2015, 03:50 AM   #460 (permalink)
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26th January

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We had a quiet, sideways day on Friday. No sign of liquidity returning but definitely the range was tighter. So today watch out to see if that's the beginning of volatility starting to normalize.

Of course, the vote in Greece has thrown the markets somewhat. We have a gap down in the ES - 9 points from the Friday settlement to the Sunday open. The Euro is down a little but I am writing this just before the London open.

So we can look at technical levels, the first thing to do today is look to see if the market is directional and if it is, it's possibly re-positioning and not a technical move at all. So it may be a news driven day.

We do have the minor line in the sand around 26.50 below us - a point we recently broke out above, so that is a potential area to hold into the pit session.

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Below us on the weekly profile, we can see it thickens up below 2020 and so we may find a reaction there.

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To the upside, people will be watching Fridays low and Fridays value low (as that was effectively the low of all the chop).

So into the open - look for an initial re-balance upwards as the Globex session is looking to open 100% short.

If we do go up, looking for Fridays levels as areas sellers may step up and start a move, below us looking for 26.50 and 2020 as potential points for buyers to step in.

Just remember it may be 100% news driven and ignore all levels.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1997.50 -> 2062.50
Value - 2003.25 -> 2034.75
S1 2027.25, R1 - 2077.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2043.50 -> 2057.25 (pit) / 2062.50
Value - 2049.75 -> 2055.75
Globex - 2025.50 -> 2037

Settlement - 2044

Today - 2020, 2026.50,

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

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