DTs Pre Market Prep (Page 44) - Trading Journals | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Trading Journals


DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,497 / 915
Last Reply:10 Minutes Ago (01:30 AM) Attachments:535

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 535  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

DTs Pre Market Prep

Old December 10th, 2014, 07:20 AM   #431 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received

10th December

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


We had a snap back up yesterday but not before a lot of 2 way trading with a lot of indecision. Early part of yesterday was a tough trade and a tough read. Overall volume was just under 1.9 Million.

As per yesterday


Quoting 
So we can say more commitment that the past weeks but not a lot of commitment overall. So right now I don't see that this has to carry on due to overwhelming participation to the downside. The initial push down was caused by stops either side of that 2 hour range. That really could have gone either way. But anyway, continued downside is one of the scenarios we need to look out for but right now participation to the downside is not high.

Today we may see the sellers jump back in and sell some more at the somewhat recovered prices. That would be a sign that there may be real seller intent.

As it is I expect us to either move up on decent volume towards 2080 (but not necessarily get there in one day) or to have a low volume sideways day.

If sellers jump in, it means they sold, waited for buyers to jump in and quietly sold some more. A push down would mean they used yesterday to get some more shorts. So I think it's unlikely but if we do have a big push down today and we get below 2026, I'll be fairly bullish in the following days.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


On the weekly profile, we can see thin trading above the value area and it's possible that the 2063.25 area will hold this market for a push down. As we move up through it, we should move fairly easily up to the weekly high.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


We can see the late pullback at 2063.25 which has the potential at least for a short term hold. Then below us we have a late pullback to 2051 and a breakout point at 2046.25 which I am looking at for longs to jump in if we retest.

I would pretty much ignore yesterdays value area and look to play off these areas.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Here's a look at the Monday/Tuesday action. In terms of delta, by the time Tuesday closed out, we were down about 25k in delta. That's very little. So this is either the sellers being very clever and trapping buyers yesterday or the move down was nothing to write home about.

So far, Globex volume is below average.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2033.25 -> 2077.50
Value - 2038.50 -> 2063.25
R1 - 2087.25, S1 2056.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2033.25 -> 2060.75 (pit) / 2062.25 (globex)
Value - 2035.25 -> 2053.75 (but IMO pretty useless today)
Globex - 2055.25 -> 2060

Settlement - 2057.50
Today - 2063.25, 2051,2046.25

Long Term - 2075.25, 2054, 2026.75, 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
     
The following 5 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
     

Old December 10th, 2014, 07:50 AM   #432 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 616 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 288 given, 463 received

@DionysusToast

Peter please try and get going and post this information earlier please

I'm just poking fun at 'ya

So is this supper time or breakfast time?

Anyway thank you very much

-Bill

Reply With Quote
     

Old December 10th, 2014, 08:37 AM   #433 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received



WilleeMac View Post
@DionysusToast

Peter please try and get going and post this information earlier please

I'm just poking fun at 'ya

So is this supper time or breakfast time?

Anyway thank you very much

-Bill

lol - had the electrician here earlier after buying 2 water heaters and a water pump.

There was much shaking of heads over what the last sparky did. A lot of air sucked in between the teeth too.

So I've been without power and will probably soon be without money...

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
     

Old December 11th, 2014, 05:22 AM   #434 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received

11th December

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Rollover day.

We've poked through the 2026 area just shy of our 2015 level. We had a lot of volume come in yesterday up to 2.3 Million. So sellers did take control and take out the longs that had clawed back the losses on Tuesday.

But as it's rollover day, I'm not trading it. If Order Flow is a major component of your trading and then you get a day where the flow of orders is moving positions from one contract to another, it changes the meaning of the order flow.

For example, if there's a lot of volume in an area and we then move up out of that area, we expect that the shorts there would have been stopped out.

But if the sellers were simply selling December and buying March contracts to roll to the new contract, then their selling has no directional bearing on short term action. So volume profile analysis and a lot of order flow analysis becomes meaningless.

The roll tends to take a few days now. It used to be that by Thursday lunchtime the volume would be in the new contract. Nowadays it tends to take longer. Sometimes a few days longer.

So for today and tomorrow - no trading for me but I will have an eye on the markets for when the volume shifts.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
     
The following 12 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
     

Old December 15th, 2014, 05:20 AM   #435 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received

Futures Edge on FIO
15th December

Market has rolled. New levels below.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Into the pit session on Friday, we still had a little more volume in the December contract for ES but NQ and YM had March leading volume.

Lots of volume on Friday and a good move down. We have moved down past the old breakout point at 2007.50. So today looking to see if we can stay below that for more of a move down.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Here's a closer look at the levels but if it's selling off hard, don't look for any of them to hold.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Today , I'll be watching 2007.50 (old high) and 2004.75 as possible areas sellers will step in. Last week was the roll, so I'm not reading too much into the weeks activity, just really looking to see if sellers step in again today and take advantage. Of course, we have to keep an eye on the market 'snapping back' after any down day and if that happens it'll be fairly easy to play upside.

What will be more tricky will be a slow start. It is getting close to Christmas and that is a traditionally slow time. Also, we have had a lot of 'slow start' days that have had me asleep by 10:15 and then broken out leaving without me. Fading any ranges after the 3rd or 4th hit of any extreme is a little dangerous because of this.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1989.75 -> 2070.50
Value - wide range week - so best ignored
R1 - 2042.75, S1 1963.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1989.75 -> 2025.50
Value - 2006-> 2019
Globex - 1987.75 -> 2003.25

Settlement - 1997.25
Today - 2004.75

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread

Last edited by DionysusToast; December 15th, 2014 at 09:33 AM.
Reply With Quote
     
The following 6 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
     

Old December 16th, 2014, 06:24 AM   #436 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received

16th December

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Another down day and a lot of volume - 2.8 million contract. It was also quite illiquid, so trading with small stops would have been a tricky proposition. I make no predictions as to where this is going but volume for this time of year is very high and other markets are moving down too this week.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Quoting 
Today , I'll be watching 2007.50 (old high) and 2004.75 as possible areas sellers will step in. Last week was the roll, so I'm not reading too much into the weeks activity, just really looking to see if sellers step in again today and take advantage. Of course, we have to keep an eye on the market 'snapping back' after any down day and if that happens it'll be fairly easy to play upside.

The market pause at 2008.50 in the Globex session but we pushed up through that to 2012 before sellers came in. When they did come in, it was a fairly orderly sell of with continued lower lows and lower highs. We did look like a reversal was possible with the push up that commenced at 10:45am EST but sellers took it down again. The afternoon moved sideways and we've stayed in that afternoon range so far in this Globex session.

So one thing to look our for early on is that range holding (1980.25->1996.75) and that becoming a value area that we trade around for a while. Just one of the scenarios that is possible today.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


We can see that area here. Shorting the top of this range would be an interesting trade if the opportunity to do so comes up early in the day as sellers could come in and push us down again to new lows again.

I think it's all about momentum - figuring out if it's lacking and fading the range OR if one side is dominant with excessive volume for a big move. I'm not a fan of fading moves like this but snap backs are common after big pushes down. For longs, you would have plenty of upside if we do get a snap back, so I think the key is to just not try to get in at the bottom, let it turn, see the volume and then stalk a position.

Also - as it's illiquid - I don't expect levels to hold to the tick (or even to the point) and I think it's going to be tough to use small stops.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1989.75 -> 2070.50
Value - wide range week - so best ignored
R1 - 2042.75, S1 1963.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1974.50 -> 2012.25
Value - 1981 -> 1994.50
Globex - 1980.25 -> 1993

Settlement - 1990
Today - 1980.25. 1996.75

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
     
The following 7 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
     

Old December 17th, 2014, 05:53 AM   #437 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received

17th December

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Well, that was a fairly big day. 3.3 Million contracts traded a move down, although the pit session had an almost 50 point range but settled at 1971.50, just 5 ticks below the open.

We are still holding the 1961 level but as a line in the sand and playing a break - I think levels will largely be ignored if we have the same sort of volume vs liquidity (aka limit orders) ratio that we had yesterday.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Yesterday we said.



Quoting 
I think it's all about momentum - figuring out if it's lacking and fading the range OR if one side is dominant with excessive volume for a big move. I'm not a fan of fading moves like this but snap backs are common after big pushes down. For longs, you would have plenty of upside if we do get a snap back, so I think the key is to just not try to get in at the bottom, let it turn, see the volume and then stalk a position.

Also - as it's illiquid - I don't expect levels to hold to the tick (or even to the point) and I think it's going to be tough to use small stops.

And same thing again. We could just die out at any point or we could have another wild ride.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Volatility wise, the swings were huge yesterday and very often we were moving through prices trading only 40-60 contracts. Side by side, the first 90 minutes on the ES made Crude look slow. So if you trade the ES because it's relatively thick & slow compared to Crude and other thin markets, then this will be a challenge. Yesterday I didn't take a trade until after 11:30 when we were on the way down.

So for me today - just looking for momentum and stand aside if it's too wild/unreadable. The opportunity is there to make and lose money on days like this and I feel no real need to get involved. These days are the exception, not the rule and I don't mind passing on them at all.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1961.50 -> 2012.25
Value - wide range week - so best ignored
R1 - 2042.75, S1 1963.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1961.50 (globex) / 1963 -> 2011.25
Value - 1973 -> 1998
Globex - 1965.25 -> 1977.50

Settlement - 1971.50

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
     
The following 8 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
     

Old December 18th, 2014, 05:34 AM   #438 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received

18th December

All - I am done trading for the year. It's a week before Christmas and the kids need some time with Dad.

As I sign off for the year I'd like to share a message I sent out to the Jigsaw customers today.


Quoting 
This is mostly a message to the less experienced traders out there.

The moves we have seen in the indices (and treasuries) over the past 2 weeks have been extraordinary.

Many people have made a lot of money.

Many people have wiped out their accounts.

The Market Makers have all but disappeared, not just from the indices but also from other markets, notably the treasuries. There's been a few times this week where the ES has been more volatile than Crude. A lack of liquidity (aka limit orders) isn't that rare in December. It happens every year but right now, the amount of liquidity is as low as I have ever seen it and volume is up. That combination is creating incredible volatility.

During this time, bear a few things in mind

- Traders rarely shout out loud about their losses, you are always going to be hearing a disproportionate amount of stories from traders about their wins. Don't get caught up in the hype of hearing about all the money individuals are making. Just as much is being lost. Guys that made out on Monday trading irresponsibly may well have given it all back and more on Tuesday.

- You cannot play this market with small stops/low risk. Doing so will give you a very high loss rate as the volatility sweeps you out of your trades. You either risk more or don't play.

- The markets are rarely like this. If you usually and regularly get 6-8 tick trades in a market with normal volatility, you will be able to do that for 90% of the year. The times when it is too slow or too fast don't really matter.

- Order Flow is hard to read right now. If you are new to Order Flow and struggling with this market, that is to be expected
and as the markets settle down, it will become clear again.

I speak to a lot of full time traders. There has been a lot of discussion this week about this action. Most are sitting out this period anyway because it's December and it's traditionally a poor time to trade. In fact, Gary Norden sent this message out earlier this week about closing his trade operation down for the rest of the year. Many traders are saying that they would not trade this anyway even if they weren't already out.

If you are trading and feel you are missing out if you don't trade these days, please take care. If you are learning to trade, then maybe now is a good time to take a break from trade school until the New Year. Knowing when to stand aside is as important as knowing when to enter a trade.

If you are making lots of money in this action, you should probably switch to trading Mexican Peso futures in the New Year!

I am done for the year myself. So best wishes to you all. Enjoy the rest of the year however you celebrate it and I'll catch you all in January all fresh and ready for trading 2015.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
     
The following 13 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
     

Old January 5th, 2015, 08:20 AM   #439 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received

5th January

It is perhaps a little early to be back at it, so today I'm mostly just planning to observe.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


If you look at the past 7 or 8 trading days, the volume has been very low. It should pick up a little today but it's unlikely to be in full swing.

I'm not really too interested in what happened over the past 2 weeks, so I have no weekly or daily profiles to look at today.

What I would be interested in today would be one side coming in aggressively. I doubt it will happen but I'm keeping an open mind.

If the participation is too low, then I wont trade it. Over the next few days, I am looking for us to build decent prices on decent volume so we build up some lines in the sand. As it is, I don't think we can rely on the past few weeks activity for that. If the volume can stay above 1.4 Million for the next few days, then I think we can have some levels that are significant.

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
     
The following 4 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
     

Old January 6th, 2015, 03:52 AM   #440 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,358 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 7,046 received


6th Jan

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Volume certainly seems to have returned to the markets. In fact, yesterday was quite similar to those days early in December. So first thing I think we look out for heading into today is even more volume coming in. Liquidity wasn't too bad but really not enough to contend with this amount of volume, so the volatility was high and I'm sure lots of people got taken out not taking it into account.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


We took a hefty drop off the open and ranged around 2010-2018. Big down days can always have a snap back up the next day and for longs, I'd either like to see rejection of yesterdays low or a move through 2018-2020 area. I think up through 2020 would also be good for a long. Reverse for shorts too - would be good to see the 2018-2020 area hold for a short. That may have already occurred though as currently the Globex high is just above 2020.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


The volatility yesterday was high. As such, I think part of the game today is getting a handle on the volatility and part is getting a handle on the direction. The swing sizes were extreme yesterday and we were moving 6,8, 10 and more points without much of a pullback to speak of. If this is a repeat of early December, then we would expect volumes and volatility to increase and for the market to continue heading south overall.

For me - I don't want to do too much within the 2010-2020 range, if we do rotate around there early on, I think I'll wait for a break before joining.

Daily Numbers

Range - 2009.50 -> 2040.50 (pit) / -> 2048.25 (globex)
Value - 2011.75 -> 2024.75
Globex - 2013 -> 2020.50

Settlement - 2016

Today only - 2018-2020

Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
     
The following 7 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Trading Journals > DTs Pre Market Prep

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How To Forcast Market Condition Based On Pre Market & Overnight Session? SeanKozak Elite Automated Trading 2 February 23rd, 2013 12:18 PM
Which tool to decide to enter the market at a pre-defined area of interest? Nicolas11 Traders Hideout 2 September 2nd, 2012 01:37 PM
Pfizer Profit Slightly Beats, but Shares Fall Pre-Market Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 1st, 2012 09:00 AM
S&P pre market movers aquarian1 News and Current Events 0 January 3rd, 2012 09:08 AM
Consumers, Bond Yields Watched in Pre-Holiday Market Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 27th, 2011 01:40 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:41 AM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-06 in 0.21 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.204.185.107