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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,742 / 918
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old November 25th, 2014, 08:45 AM   #421 (permalink)
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25th November
Volume was pitiful yesterday with less than 800k traded.

One interesting thing last two sessions the High of the Day the was at the open.
(Friday and Monday)

FWIW

Edit at 9:54
If this continues as it is.
Another HOD at the open.

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Old December 1st, 2014, 02:59 AM   #422 (permalink)
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1st December

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We can't draw too many conclusions from last weeks trading as it was so light. We are pulling back to a prior high (2054) and so there is possibility we find support here for another move up. Still no sign of sellers but the higher we climb without a rest, the more power a sell of will have.

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We can see that last week, most of the action was 2064.50->2073.25, as above it was a light week but it is possible these levels are significant into this week. Certainly a rejection of 2064.50 from below should give sellers a bit more courage. To the left we can also see the 2054 level significant as it's just above the top distribution from the prior week.

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The split profile doesn't add much to this.

So a light week last week, trading in new territory, leaving us with not a great deal to play off unless we head down. So watching 2054 and 2064.50 to see if the market reacts.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2060.75 -> 2075.25
Value - 2065 -> 2071.50
R1 - 2072.75, S1 2061.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2063.50 -> 2073.25
Value - 2067.25 -> 2072.75
Globex - 2055.25 -> 2065

Settlement - 2066.25
Today - 2054, 2073.25, 2064.50

Long Term - 2054, 2026.75, 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old December 2nd, 2014, 07:20 AM   #423 (permalink)
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2nd December

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A tricky start yesterday, a slow start off the pit session open which meant I missed the breakdown off the opening range BUT we did get a nice bounce back up after that push down (at which point you should have been expecting a reaction) with decent opportunity to get on board. It was fairly volatile despite just a 12 point range.

So eyes on the depth today and (for me anyway), try not to fall asleep if it's slow off the open. It's worth keeping an eye on oil too right now in terms of looking for clues the indices are going to break.

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If we look left (and we are reaching for levels up here), we can see a step in the profile at 2048.25 which is our current week low, so that's worth keeping an eye on. Above us, the same 2064.50 level from yesterday. Lines in the sand albeit minor ones.

What we don't want today is to stay in this range 2048-2060 , otherwise that might capture the action all week.

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As we can see a very swingy day once we broke out of that initial narrow range off the open. It's making the new 2054 level look like it's insignificant, so that will come off unless we get a reaction there. Like I say - not much to play off up here as it's still fairly new ground. So today - the 2048.25 and yesterdays range/value and then looking at what develops intraday. And of course, trying not to get cut up if it's more volatile.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2060.75 -> 2075.25
Value - 2065 -> 2071.50
R1 - 2074, S1 2060

Daily Numbers
Range - 2048.25 -> 2060 (pit) / 2064 (globex)
Value - 2051 -> 2056.50
Globex - 2049.50 -> 2059

Settlement - 2050.75
Today - 2048.25, 2054, 2073.25, 2064.50

Long Term - 2054, 2026.75, 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; December 2nd, 2014 at 08:26 AM.
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Old December 3rd, 2014, 06:57 AM   #424 (permalink)
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3rd December

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An interesting day yesterday - we pushed up and seemed to spend an eternity around 2060 building volume before moving up to 2060.

If we are building a consolidation area here, it's looking to be a small one. I'd like to see us hit the high and roll over to 2027 area and then consolidate 2027-2080 for a month or so. That would make me feel a bit better about moves up.

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last week we had a lesser traded (time wise) area at 2063.25 and I'll be watching that same area today. We also have the 2060 area and below where the bulk of this weeks trading has been. Below 2060, we should grind down to 2051.

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Yesterday we had the pullback to 2060 which was also Sunday/Mondays Globex high. So that seems like a reference point worth watching. It's also above the VAL at 2059.75. This would be an ideal area for a long because if it holds, people will jump on the move. If it breaks, I don't see people jumping on it to the downside, rather it looks set to be a grind down.

We can also see here how the 2063.25 area has potential. It does seem a bit close to the highs to be a good long but this market is shy of sellers of late, so I'm looking at that as a minor line in the sand as we might not make it to 2060.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2048.25 -> 2068
Value - 2051 -> 2059.50
R1 - 2074, S1 2060

Daily Numbers
Range - 2049.50 (globex) / 2052.50 (pit) -> 2068
Value - 2059.75 -> 2066.25
Globex - 2063.25 -> 2067.75

Settlement - 2066
Today - 2063.25, 2060

Long Term - 2054, 2026.75, 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old December 4th, 2014, 06:42 AM   #425 (permalink)
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Normally - this is what I'd be expecting the market to do after a run up. We do have signs of the market wanting to take a pause and consolidate and I'm certainly NOT calling this a top.

So let's see how this plays out. Sellers have been very much absent since 1820 and this isn't the time to fade the market on a swing trade but if it does move down, I favor a consolidation forming.

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Looking back at the week so far we've been dipping into the prior day off the open but not to any particular common reference points. Yesterday I was looking at 60 and 63.25 which were relatively modest pullbacks but we didn't get anywhere near that low.

Volume is low - 925k contracts yesterday.

So the plan today - not worry too much about the "usual" reference points. Watch the volume and watch for a very modest move down off the open and be ready to buy at modest pullbacks or not at all.

With the low volume, I think what we need to also look at is the "wiggle" in the market. If we see lost of 3-4 tick sudden moves either way, then it's being nudged around a lot and the thing to do is wait for a nudge and fade it as long as you aren't seeing directional moves on correlated markets.

Of course, you don't have to play that game but if you do see the above, your game plan will need to change anyway as this nudging around will necessitate widening of your stops.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2048.25 -> 2076
Value - 2050.50 -> 2065.50
R1 - 2074, S1 2060

Daily Numbers
Range - 2063.25 (globex) / 2065.50 (pit) -> 2076
Value - 2068.50 -> 2072.50
Globex - 2071.25 -> 2075.25

Settlement - 2072.50
Today - 2075.25

Long Term - 2075.25, 2054, 2026.75, 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old December 8th, 2014, 05:20 AM   #426 (permalink)
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8th December

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We are slowly grinding up on fairly low volume. It would make sense for a range to form at this point but the market isn't making much sense right now, so we may just grind up to the New Year.

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With a grind up in mind, we keep an eye on downside reference points. Last week the down moves were shallow. Based on the weekly profile 68.25 looks a reasonable shallow pullback point. We could well test that before the Pit session open.

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Another 'feature' of last week was that we were pretty much ignoring the 'usual' reference points. This may be the market getting pushed around on low volume but it seems we are having to take our cues off intraday developing reference points.

Moving up is most likely still overall. For any serious short positions, I'd want to see good delta shift on a push down, preferably after failing to hold a new high. Otherwise basically looking to the volume profile to see if some support forms early on.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2048.25 -> 2079
Value - 2057 -> 2076.50
R1 - 2056.50, S1 2087.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2068.50 (globex) / 2069.75 (pit) -> 2079
Value - 2072.50 -> 2077
Globex - 2068.50 -> 2077.50

Settlement - 2076
Today - 2068.25

Long Term - 2075.25, 2054, 2026.75, 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old December 8th, 2014, 08:59 AM   #427 (permalink)
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Based on the weekly profile 68.25 looks a reasonable shallow pullback point. We could well test that before the Pit session open.

LOL so far 67.75...

Close enough for me.


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Old December 8th, 2014, 03:55 PM   #428 (permalink)
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@DionysusToast

Thank you for the link/ email

Interesting stuff to digest

Not that yours is not but I don't do much with/ use market profile

I use a customized (internalized) VSA on /CL - primarily spike bars outside of standard deviation moves on volume etc

One thing that *might* cross over to your pre-market prep is I watch whole numbers and quarter numbers - 00, 50, 25, 75

-Bill_M

EDIT


Quoting 
-Before we break down the significance of each section it is important to point out what we feel may be the most important component of all sections – the comment fields. We find that physically writing or typing facts, ideas, instincts, gut feelings, etc. REALLY helps solidify the trading plan for the session.


I attended a Dalton seminar and he was asked a similar question, write it or type it. He mentioned write it because you have a better tendency to remember it. To each his/ her own - I tend to agree with Mr Dalton


Last edited by WilleeMac; December 8th, 2014 at 04:10 PM.
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Old December 9th, 2014, 04:00 AM   #429 (permalink)
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9th December

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We have now got to the bottom of the inner range. Now we see if this will hold and we go back to the highs or if it breaks and we head down to the 2020's.

If it does hold, then a long bias to the highs is a good bet.

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Here is yesterday. It started out as expected.


Quoting 
With a grind up in mind, we keep an eye on downside reference points. Last week the down moves were shallow. Based on the weekly profile 68.25 looks a reasonable shallow pullback point. We could well test that before the Pit session open.

We tested that area (well a few ticks below) in the globex session and soon after the open. A shallow move down, then buyers came in pushed it up a little and it moved painfully sideways for a few hours.

Then the market sold off and that 68.25 area became resistance. If we are looking for continuation down today, what do we see from yesterday that supports it? Well the delta came off 40k which isn't massive. Volume for the day was just 1.3 Million.

So we can say more commitment that the past weeks but not a lot of commitment overall. So right now I don't see that this has to carry on due to overwhelming participation to the downside. The initial push down was caused by stops either side of that 2 hour range. That really could have gone either way. But anyway, continued downside is one of the scenarios we need to look out for but right now participation to the downside is not high.

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This one is worth a thousand words. We can see that Monday almost covered the entire range from last week. One of the things to look out for after a day like yesterday is a snap back up. This being at the bottom of the inner range, I think we need to look for a line in the sand to the upside that will see shorts bailing.

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The 2063.25 level looks good both on the profile and on the swing charts. We had a pullback to there in the afternoon with good positive delta and that has now been taken back.

So basically - we are at the low of a potential range but a small one. If the range breaks, I think we'll sell down to 2020. At this point we could see the buyers come in and longs are good but I think that once we get above 63.25, the shorts will know that they are done so being long into that would be good because we could well see yesterdays high if the shorts bail at that point.

Some very "wishy-washy" action in the past weeks and I feel we have firmer ground to stand on going into today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2048.25 -> 2079
Value - 2057 -> 2076.50
R1 - 2087.25, S1 2056.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2053.75 (globex) -> 2075.75 (pit) -> 2077.50
Value - 2060.25 -> 2075.75
Globex - 2051.50 -> 2062.25

Settlement - 2059.50
Today - 2063.25, 2068.25

Long Term - 2075.25, 2054, 2026.75, 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; December 9th, 2014 at 09:58 AM.
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Old December 9th, 2014, 04:12 AM   #430 (permalink)
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@DionysusToast

Thank you for the link/ email

Interesting stuff to digest

Not that yours is not but I don't do much with/ use market profile

I use a customized (internalized) VSA on /CL - primarily spike bars outside of standard deviation moves on volume etc

One thing that *might* cross over to your pre-market prep is I watch whole numbers and quarter numbers - 00, 50, 25, 75

-Bill_M

EDIT




I attended a Dalton seminar and he was asked a similar question, write it or type it. He mentioned write it because you have a better tendency to remember it. To each his/ her own - I tend to agree with Mr Dalton

Hi Bill

I think it matters more that you do the same thing every day and feel good about doing it!

Of course, we go through periods - like the past couple of weeks where the market sort of does it's own thing and you feel 'off your game' - but sanity prevails over the long term!

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