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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,452 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old November 11th, 2014, 07:47 AM   #411 (permalink)
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11th November

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Another push up yesterday. Obviously no targets in sight as we are in fresh territory. Volatility is dropping and the market is reasonably well behaved.

If we do come back to the 2020 area to test the old high, that would be nice but we've already tested it once, so for the longs it's just a matter of finding something to lean on.

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We can see that we have 2 distributions so far but it is early in the week. Still, we should keep an eye on 2030.25 as a line in the sand.

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Levels from yesterday we can play off - we pulled back to 2030.25 in the afternoon, which is close to the VAL. That looks like a good spot but if we push up more in the remainder of the Globex session, I'll be looking for the globex highs too.

So bias long, looking at yesterdays level for cues as we are in new territory.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1995.25 -> 2033.50
Value - 2003.75 -> 2019.25
R1 - 2041.25, S1 2003

Daily Numbers
Range - 2021 (globex) / 2025.75 (pit) -> 2035
Value - 2030.25 -> 2034.75
Globex - 2031.75 -> 2039

Settlement - 2034
Today - 2030.25->2030.50

Long Term - 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old November 12th, 2014, 04:39 AM   #412 (permalink)
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12th November

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So little occured yesterday, that we are basically in the same position.


Quoting 
Another push up yesterday (Monday). Obviously no targets in sight as we are in fresh territory. Volatility is dropping and the market is reasonably well behaved.

If we do come back to the 2020 area to test the old high, that would be nice but we've already tested it once, so for the longs it's just a matter of finding something to lean on.

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Quoting 
We can see that we have 2 distributions so far but it is early in the week. Still, we should keep an eye on 2030.25 as a line in the sand.

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Quoting 
Levels from yesterday (Monday) we can play off - we pulled back to 2030.25 in the afternoon, which is close to the VAL. That looks like a good spot but if we push up more in the remainder of the Globex session, I'll be looking for the globex highs too.

So bias long, looking at yesterdays level for cues as we are in new territory.

We also have 2031 from yesteday, so we make that a range 2030-2031 to look for today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1995.25 -> 2033.50
Value - 2003.75 -> 2019.25
R1 - 2041.25, S1 2003

Daily Numbers
Range - 2031 -> 2037.75 (pit) / 2039 (globex)
Value - 2032.75 -> 2036.25
Globex - 2030.50 -> 2037

Settlement - 2036.50
Today - 2030->2031

Long Term - 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old November 13th, 2014, 05:15 AM   #413 (permalink)
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13th December

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A fairly narrow week so far this week. Not much to see from the 4 hour chart. Yesterday we did nothing settling half a point from Wednesdays settlement.

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We can see a distribution of activity 2030.50-2037 and we have popped above that. I have 2037 as a line in the sand, if it looks like buyers are defending it, I think it's a good long and hopefully we'll see the market move a little faster up there after what has been a bit of a slow week. If 2037 breaks to the downside I think we will see 2030, possibly quite slowly.

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Yesterday we had a late pullback to 2031.75, so if we do move down, that is also a level to watch.

So not much on. I would prefer to see the range high hold for a decent push up. If we go back into the range, it'll probably be a grind again.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2021 -> 2043
Value - 2029 -> 2038
R1 - 2041.25, S1 2003

Daily Numbers
Range - 2026.50 (globex) / 2027.75 (pit) -> 2037.25
Value - 2032.25 -> 2036.75
Globex - 2033.50 -> 2043

Settlement - 2036
Today - 2030.50 & 2031.75

Long Term - 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old November 17th, 2014, 05:30 AM   #414 (permalink)
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17th November

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Last week was relatively narrow, we kept the gains above the 2020.75 breakout point but didn't make much progress. The markets tend to move-consolidate-move-consolidate and we haven't really had a move since breaking the highs of 2020.75 that leaves a visible gap between consolidation areas. On the other hand if we look at the swing up from 1810, we didn't have much consolidation on the way up, so you could argue that this is just a 2000-2040 consolidation area.

I think there's an argument for thinking this is going to fall back below 2020.75 and through 2000 and I think there's an argument for this being consolidation after a 200 point move up and another move up after that consolidation.

Either way, we should now have built plenty of stops outside of last weeks range. We can't tell when it'll break but we can, try to get positioned into that break and not worry too much about longer term.

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Last week we have double/triple distribution. There is a case for stops below 2026 with caution for shorts as we go to 2020.75. Also above 2037 we didn't have much trading and we may see acceleration if that breaks. We have low volume at 2030 so also look for that as a line in the sand.

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We are below Fridays range right now. So look out for a rebalance up off the open if that is still the case at 9:30 AM EST.

I'll be looking at Fridays lows/value lows to see if we have a rejection going back into the range for a short. For longs - the 2026 and 2020.75 lines in the sand would give a good long if we see buyers come in there as I think we should at least get to 2030 if that holds.

Personally, I think the downside holds the most potential from where we are now as stops above are pretty far away. It looks like longs will be a grind till we get through the 2037

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2021 -> 2043.75
Value - 2030.50 -> 2038.50 (but look at the double/triple distribution)
R1 - 2047.50, S1 2024.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2032 -> 2039.75
Value - 2034 -> 2037.50
Globex - 2026.25 -> 2035.25

Settlement - 2038
Today - 2030, 2026, 2020.75

Long Term - 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; November 17th, 2014 at 08:30 AM.
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Old November 18th, 2014, 05:25 AM   #415 (permalink)
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18th November

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Yesterday we had:


Quoting 
Last week was relatively narrow, we kept the gains above the 2020.75 breakout point but didn't make much progress. The markets tend to move-consolidate-move-consolidate and we haven't really had a move since breaking the highs of 2020.75 that leaves a visible gap between consolidation areas. On the other hand if we look at the swing up from 1810, we didn't have much consolidation on the way up, so you could argue that this is just a 2000-2040 consolidation area.

I think there's an argument for thinking this is going to fall back below 2020.75 and through 2000 and I think there's an argument for this being consolidation after a 200 point move up and another move up after that consolidation.

Either way, we should now have built plenty of stops outside of last weeks range. We can't tell when it'll break but we can, try to get positioned into that break and not worry too much about longer term.

Looking at the chart above it really looks like we just probed the top of the range. I was expecting acceleration above 37 but that was not apparent. So today I'm watching the top of last weeks range for acceleration on a break or a lazy roll over back down to 2000.

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As we are above the main distribution from last week, we have to consider that as potential support now. So watching for a test around 2037 today (although we did get that late yesterday) and will be cautious if short into that price and looking for longs & a breakout if it tests & holds.

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Not really much to add to the above based on the split profile. Globex has probed up and there's 5 hours left but for now we are just rotating around the top of yesterdays range and are currently testing 2037 again.

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Yesterday was interesting. We can see we moved up to the white line (2037) and then moved back to the open which held before moving up to prior days high. Then down to the prior days low, then back to the prior days high and then 2037 acted as support. So lots of action at 2037 but also prior days high/low and the current days open.

What is significant about this is that this is evidence that REAL liquidity is getting back to normal. These are levels that everyone watches (especially todays pit session open) and when the market is thing, they are significant but it tens to slide through them a fair amount first. Yesterday we saw the sort of "to the tick" reversals that are more indicative of a thick market.

Obviously - you don't know WHICH of the levels will hold ahead of time - but we can start re-thinking how much breathing room to give trades, now that things appear to be getting back to normal.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2021 -> 2043.75
Value - 2030.50 -> 2038.50 (but look at the double/triple distribution)
R1 - 2047.50, S1 2024.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2026.25 (globex) / 2031.25 (pit) -> 2040.50
Value - 2035 -> 2040
Globex - 2036.25 -> 2042.25

Settlement - 2039.75
Today - 2037, 2030, 2026

Long Term - 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old November 19th, 2014, 04:57 AM   #416 (permalink)
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19th November

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We finally escaped the range to the upside. It was as a grind up on fairly low volume - 1.1 million for the day. A good trade would be a re-test of the range for a long or for sellers to show their faces now that we have hit 2150. To be honest, I'm still thinking 1700 was a good price...

Is this a reflection of the value of the economy as a whole? Or just lots of money swilling around looking for a home? I find it hard to rationalize. I am trying to resist the urge to be biase short because after all, it is going up.

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Looking at the weekly profile 2044 looks like a logical spot for a pullback to stop. The way the profile is building is very indicative of a trending market - move-consolidate-move-consolidate...

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The Globex session is in the middle of yesterdays range and mostly below settlement. Being in new ground makes it hard to pick levels but the value area from yesterday looks sensible. I think today though, it's probably a day for keeping an open mind and keying off levels that develop intraday. Unless I see a lot of action one side I don't really have anything for a bias or any recent activity to tell me it's behaving in a certain way (except up).

It is FOMC day, so it may well be that reaching 2150 and some hawkish move could start a move down. Probably not much to do in the morning though.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 20216.25 -> 2054
Value - 2027.50 -> 2044
R1 - 2047.50, S1 2024.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2035.75 (globex) / 2039 (pit) -> 2054
Value - 2046 -> 2053
Globex - 2044.59 -> 2049

Settlement - 2048.50
Today - 2044

Long Term - 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old November 20th, 2014, 05:13 AM   #417 (permalink)
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20th November

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Still in a slow grind up overall. Still on fairly lackluster volume.

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We can see that the weekly value area does mark out the 2 areas with the most action. We may end up seeing out the week just filling in the middle. I'm not expecting too much of a run unless we can break above 49.25 or below 37.

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If we do push down, then there may be people thinking that this is a reversal off a major level - as we hit 2150 and then turned over. So the more down days we get, the more people will jump on that trade. I don't see much to play off other than yesterdays range and value extremes. So today, expecting not too much but would like to see a push down as I think that is the trade that will attract the most attention.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2026.25 -> 2054
Value - 2037.75 -> 2049.25
R1 - 2047.50, S1 2024.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2037.75 -> 2050.50
Value - 2041.75 -> 2047.75
Globex - 2039.25 -> 2048.25

Settlement - 2047.25

Long Term - 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; November 20th, 2014 at 09:56 AM.
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Old November 21st, 2014, 07:20 AM   #418 (permalink)
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21st November

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Good day yesterday to my surprise. Still moving up on weak volume and back through 2150 again.

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Quoting 
We can see that the weekly value area does mark out the 2 areas with the most action. We may end up seeing out the week just filling in the middle. I'm not expecting too much of a run unless we can break above 49.25 or below 37.

Yesterday we dipped below 37 in the Globex session and shortly after the pit session open we got as low as 36.50. Buyers stepped in and we had a sraight run up to 52.

looking at the above profile, we have a step at 2043 and so that is an area to look out for today.

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We can also look out for 47.25 as a line in the sand. Buyers stepping in there or 2043 should give us a good long. If 2047.25 breaks I wouldn't expect sellers to push it down but if 2043 goes then I would.

Of course, we also have to watch for a failure at the high or a point or 2 through it and sellers stepping in - 2054.

Strange, strange market....

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2026.25 -> 2054
Value - 2036.50 -> 2050
R1 - 2047.50, S1 2024.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2035.25 (globex) / 2036.50 (pit) -> 2052.50
Value - 2046.50 -> 2052
Globex - 2049.75 -> 2053

Settlement - 2052
Today - 2043, 2047.25

Long Term - 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old November 24th, 2014, 06:02 AM   #419 (permalink)
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24th November

Thanksgiving week - so it's likely to be a quiet week. Happy thanksgiving to all the Americans reading this. Thanks also for all the Thanksgiving buffets in Bangkok this week - I'm still deciding which one to pig out at!

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Still working up. I still don't see anything above 2015.15 as a line in the sand. I am adding in 2026.75 as a longer term level. Otherwise it's all fresh air and a parabolic move up. It's hard to see how this is justified but the market can stay irrational for as long as it wants.

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Looking at last weeks profile, we can see that we have very thin trading above the red line 2054.25. So I'm watching that area should we come down.

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Also worth watching is 2063 - the late pullback on Friday afternoon.

So we are marching up, it's a hard market to short. We are in fresh area, so there's not much to play off and we do have some medium confidence levels below.

Watch out for the volume as it may be low right from Today. If so, try not to get chopped about too much!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2026.25 -> 2072.25
Value - 2033.50 -> 2053
R1 - 2081, S1 2034

Daily Numbers
Range - 2049.75 (globex) / 2054.75 (pit) -> 2072.25
Value - 2056 -> 2064.50
Globex - 2060.75 -> 2067.50

Settlement - 2061.75
Today - 2054.25, 2065

Long Term - 2026.75, 2020.75, 2015.25, 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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Old November 25th, 2014, 04:25 AM   #420 (permalink)
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25th November

Volume was pitiful yesterday with less than 800k traded. My guess is it'll be like this for the rest of the week. We need major news to really move this market if the participation is so low.

Participation also changes the characteristics of the market and for another 2 days, it's really a tough job to get into the rhythm of the market and make money from it.

We do have consumer confidence today at 10pm and there is a chance that'll cause a move.

On balance though, I'd rather take the time off and enjoy the Thanksgiving week.

So Happy Thanksgiving all and see you next week.

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