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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,405 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old September 29th, 2014, 03:34 AM   #391 (permalink)
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29th August

My apologies for lack of prep in the past few days. Internet in Southeast Asia is slow right now because of this: Broken Southeast Asia internet cable to take 20 days to fix

My evening/US morning is the worst time - when the kids are back from school and all on Facebook!

This is an early prep - so expect the Globex situation to change prior to the open.

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Last week we said:


Quoting 
Back to the bottom of our now one month old narrow range. I'm looking for us to either find support at 77.75 or 70.25 or possibly collapse down. We did just range extend upwards, so we could now do the same to the downside, so I think even if we break 70.25 and sellers jump in, we might just push down to 1960 and not reach the next level down. That would give is a roughly 12 point extension which is what we had to the upside.

We got as low as 1956.50 and now we are moving up. Today I'll be looking for confirmation of the move up with decent buying or seeing a level below us getting tested. Similarly, I'll be looking to see signs that we can't move up back to the top of this range and that we are actually looking at more downside - perhaps to 1934.50 or 1909.50.

If we do break down, I expect to see acceleration as we break 56.50 and so I wouldn't expect the level at 51.25 to hold it.

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On a weekly basis, we can see a distribution in the profile below 1965, so it's possible that this provides resistance if we dip down.

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We can see that on Friday we accelerated when we broke above 68.50, so that is an area of interest today, especially as Fridays value area is so elongated (which usually makes it meaningless). This price has held so far. Prior to the close we came to 1973.25 and that is an are of interest but didn't hold in the Globex session.

So - looking for confirmation that the range is holding or breaking and using that for a bias on short term trades.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1956.50 -> 2003
Value - 1958.75 -> 1985.75
S1 1952.75 R1 2002.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1956.50 (globex) / 1959.50 -> 1979.25
Value - 1959.75 -> 1972.75
Globex - 1968.75 -> 1977

Settlement - 1976

Today 1968.50, 1973.25
This week - 1991.75 -> 1992.50

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Old September 30th, 2014, 05:54 AM   #392 (permalink)
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30th September

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Yesterday we said


Quoting 
We got as low as 1956.50 and now we are moving up. Today I'll be looking for confirmation of the move up with decent buying or seeing a level below us getting tested. Similarly, I'll be looking to see signs that we can't move up back to the top of this range and that we are actually looking at more downside - perhaps to 1934.50 or 1909.50.

We got 3 ticks below last weeks low in the overnight session. In the pit session, we got 1 tick through that. So we had our downside test. We did then move up from there, but so far we are still within Thursdays range. After the test, it was fairly choppy. We need to escape this range we are in because the longer we stay in Thursdays range, the choppier it will get.

Liquidity was very low yesterday. Developing intraday levels weren't sticking at all. Watch the depth off the open and if it's sub-600 on the first 3 levels each side, it's going to need widening stops or standing aside.

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On the far left is Thursdays pit session. We can see that we are basically rotating around the same area. So my bias is still up to the highs at this point, it's going to be a tough trade unless we get to the lows again or we break out of the range.

This range, combined with the lack of liquidity makes it an 'interesting' trade today. Trading off yesterdays high/low/value area is possible but with the range/liquidity the way it is, I think it might be hard holding on to the trades.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1956.50 -> 2003
Value - 1958.75 -> 1985.75
S1 1952.75 R1 2002.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1955.50 -> 1974 (pit) / 1977 (globex)
Value - 1964.75 -> 1971.75
Globex - 1968 -> 1974.25

Settlement - 1969.50

This week - 1991.75 -> 1992.50

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Old October 1st, 2014, 07:38 AM   #393 (permalink)
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1st October

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Yesterday we said


Quoting 
On the far left is Thursdays pit session. We can see that we are basically rotating around the same area. So my bias is still up to the highs at this point, it's going to be a tough trade unless we get to the lows again or we break out of the range.

This range, combined with the lack of liquidity makes it an 'interesting' trade today. Trading off yesterdays high/low/value area is possible but with the range/liquidity the way it is, I think it might be hard holding on to the trades.

And today we are still in that same range. So we are looking to trade the extremes and for trading to be difficult in the middle of the range, especially the 1960-1975 area.

We also said


Quoting 
Liquidity was very low yesterday. Developing intraday levels weren't sticking at all. Watch the depth off the open and if it's sub-600 on the first 3 levels each side, it's going to need widening stops or standing aside.

Yesterday was also thin. There was some lively chatter (or Twitter) yesterday about the potential of this being the "new normal" and for this level of liquidity to be caused by the change in rules at the Merc to prevent manipulation.

My opinion on this:
- This could well be the "new normal"
- It could also be just a temporary change in liquidity. We have discussed these in our "Practical Application of Order Flow" webinar and they are quite normal
- It is too early to say which, although it is possible that if people have stopped making markets, that they will talk to the media. So eyes out for that.
- If it is a permanent change, some will adapt and some will not

If you don't use the DOM - then one thing you should use it for is to check the average depth to pre-empt changes in volatility. That is something you can do with a simple glance at even the most basic DOM every 15 minutes.

Either way, it should be interesting.

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Coming into today, we can see that yesterday we moved down to 1962.50 at about 10am. This was afternoon low. The high was around our level at 1977.75.

So today we can watch the weeks extremes as well as the afternoon high 1970.75->1971.25 area. On top of this the Globex low. If we breach the range, we look for a headfake first and if we get a decent extension - say 7 ticks or more, for a retest to the range for a continuation. Trades in the middle might be tempting but it's a tough trade in my opinion.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1955.50 -> 1978.25
Value - 1963 -> 1973.50
S1 1952.75 R1 2002.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1961 -> 1978.25
Value - 1962.75 -> 1971.25
Globex - 1959 -> 1967

Settlement - 1965.50

This week - 1991.75 -> 1992.50, 1970.75->1971.25

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Old October 2nd, 2014, 07:25 AM   #394 (permalink)
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2nd October

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Yesterday we finally broke out of the range. Now it's a matter of where we go. We've already hit the 34.50 level and got 3 ticks through to 33.75 before buyers stepped in. We could move back up from here, a snapback is a common reaction to an extended day in any direction. We could head continue heading down and so today our job is to see if we can get a hint as to which is playing out.

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No point in looking at the weekly profile after a day like yesterday. As we moved so far, there's not much to play off today other than yesterdays range and the longer term levels. From yesterday I'm ignoring the value area but looking at 1944 and 1946.50, the lines above, for obvious reasons. Also looking for a hold on yesterdays low.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1933.75 -> 1978.25
Value - 1959.25 -> 1976.75
S1 1952.75 R1 2002.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1933.75 -> 1962.75 (pit) / 1967 (globex)
Value - usually irrelevant on an elongated day
Globex - 1936 -> 1943.75

Settlement - 1944, 1946.50

This week - 1991.75 -> 1992.50, 1970.75->1971.25

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Old October 3rd, 2014, 04:25 AM   #395 (permalink)
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3rd October

An early prep today, so Globex picture will likely be out of date by 9:30am EST

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Yesterday started off very thin and whippy and there was an early effort to hold above the open price. When it did break, we saw sellers come in and as the 34.50 level broke we saw a them take control. Delta came off just over 50k contracts from the open, which isn't a huge amount. We then clawed back the delta and price back to a high of 45.25. Interestingly, into the close, delta came off another 40k and price 9 points. 40k for 9 points down is fairly normal. You have to wonder if that wasn't more ''orderly" undwinding into the close.

Volume was decent yesterday 2.7 million contracts. The Delta being quite low for the size of the move is more down to the lack of liquidity in the way. We've seen low liquidity all week, so when sellers did finally come in, they got more for their efforts.

We broke 34.50 and we are now back above it. We have a big news day today which could push us in either direction. So the key today is to try to get hints of which way it's going to go. In the grand scheme of things, this is a minor pullback and there's no reason we can't move down some more.

Once again, I'll be looking for the break of 34.50 for a place where shorts should be able to take it, so being short into that would be ideal.

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We can see 34.50 is significant - there's not too much extra to pick up from yesterdays action - the 45.25->46.00 has been breached overnight, so I'll be watching those levels into the open and then the levels that develop intraday.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1918.25 -> 1978.25
Value - 1933.75-> 1968.75
S1 1952.75 R1 2002.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1918.25-> 1945.25
Value - usually irrelevant on an elongated day
Globex - 1935.75 -> 1948

Settlement - 1938.50
Today- 1945.25->1946

This week - 1991.75 -> 1992.50, 1970.75->1971.25

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Old October 6th, 2014, 06:50 AM   #396 (permalink)
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October 6th

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Interesting times!

We had a good recovery on Friday with about 1.5 million contracts traded. That makes it an average day and well below the volumes on Wednesday and Thursday. So was the volume on Wed/Thu long term dumping or just more short term speculators joining the fray? Hard to tell at this point.

Last week we dipped below the 34.50 level, couldn't hold below it and now we've taken a breather around the 70.25 level. As you may recall, I had a hard time deciding if 70.25 or 77.75 is the "significant" level in that area - we've had support and resistance there previously. Today, I'm looking for signs that sellers take it back down from here or if we are going to push up and potentially go to 2014.

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The upper distribution bottoms out around 59.50 and so if we do head down, we might see it choppy till that point and acceleration below. Downside, I'll be a little more excited below that price. We may also hold 59.50.

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We can see that on Friday, we went up to 1960 before falling off and at into the close it bounced off 59.50 - so again, it's worth watching that area. We are almost 100% long in the Globex session, so a correction down is on the cards at the open if it doesn't occur before.

Above 1970.25, I'm looking for strength on a break and then a retest but wary that the "real" level could be 77.75. For a long, it would be oood to see a move down to Fridays high/vah giving opportunity to be long some into 70.25...

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1918.25 -> 1978.25
Value - 1935.25-> 1968.25
S1 1926.25 R1 1986.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1935.75 (globex) / 1945.50 (pit) -> 1964.50
Value - 1955.50 -> 1964
Globex - 1960 -> 1970.50

Settlement - 1960.25
Today- 1959.50

This week - 1991.75 -> 1992.50, 1970.75->1971.25

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Last edited by DionysusToast; October 6th, 2014 at 10:14 AM.
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Old October 7th, 2014, 05:49 AM   #397 (permalink)
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7th October

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Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Last week we dipped below the 34.50 level, couldn't hold below it and now we've taken a breather around the 70.25 level. As you may recall, I had a hard time deciding if 70.25 or 77.75 is the "significant" level in that area - we've had support and resistance there previously. Today, I'm looking for signs that sellers take it back down from here or if we are going to push up and potentially go to 2014.

We did take a drop down from that 70.25 area and now we are at the 51.25 level which is a minor level. We did take a small bounce off it earlier on but it's now gone through again and by the time the pit session opens, we may be much lower. If not and we do hold around 51.25, it's possible that area will be defended on the open. We do have potential to get to 34.50 again today. Then it's a matter of whether this market really is teflon coated or if we can have another push down towards 1910.

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Last weeks lower distribution tops around 1943.50, so if we do go down, we have to be wary of that level and expect that it may be choppy from there to 34.50.

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Looking at yesterday, 1962 was the afternoon high, so if we do push up, watch for that to hold. Based on the current state of Globex, we look to be in the opposite position into todays open than we were yesterday. Yesterday Globex was almost entirely long and we had a (sluggish) sell off not long after the open. Today Globex is almost entirely short and so it's likely we will get at least a small correction up off the open. If it does go up, I'll be looking at yesterdays low/value low for sellers defending.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1918.25 -> 1978.25
Value - 1935.25-> 1968.25
S1 1926.25 R1 1986.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1950.50 -> 1971
Value - 1953.50 -> 1962.50
Globex - 1944.74 -> 1956.25 (we had a spike down after grabbing the screen shot)

Settlement - 1956

This week - 1991.75 -> 1992.50, 1970.75->1971.25

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Old October 9th, 2014, 06:12 AM   #398 (permalink)
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9th October

9th October

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Volume yesterday was 2.1 million. The market seems pretty schizophrenic at the moment. We are marking out a short term range 1918-1970.25. With the volatility the way it is, that could break at any time, so fading the extremes is risky. If the range matures over the next few weeks, then fading will be a less risky proposition.

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We have potentially traveled to the top of this range, so now we want to see if it's going to hold or break down. 70.25 has been significant of late and I think whichever occurs, there is the potential for traders to step in and push it for an elongated move.

Today, I will let this level play out and then attempt to find a low risk entry on the side of momentum.

There's potentially a lot of points on the table today but you can't trade this with the same risk as a less volatile ES. So if you aren't ready to risk a bit more, the markets probably going to take you out. . If 2-4 point trades are your 'sweet spot', you should not expect to be able to pull 20 points out of days like today (just my opinion of course)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1918 -> 1968.50
Value - 1924-> 1960.50
S1 1926.25 R1 1986.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1918 -> 1964
Value - 1919.75 -> 1949.25
Globex - 1959.25 -> 1968.50

Settlement - 1961.75

This week - 1991.75 -> 1992.50, 1970.75->1971.25

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Old October 10th, 2014, 04:46 AM   #399 (permalink)
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10th October

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Quoting 
We are marking out a short term range 1918-1970.25. With the volatility the way it is, that could break at any time, so fading the extremes is risky. If the range matures over the next few weeks, then fading will be a less risky proposition.

We have potentially traveled to the top of this range, so now we want to see if it's going to hold or break down. 70.25 has been significant of late and I think whichever occurs, there is the potential for traders to step in and push it for an elongated move.

Today, I will let this level play out and then attempt to find a low risk entry on the side of momentum.

Today, it's the same deal but we are at the bottom of the range. So we are looking for the range to hold or break. We are below 1918 now and we want to see what happens when the pit session opens to see if we go back up.

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This is an early prep - almost 4am EST. So this could resolve before the pit open if we see traders really pushing it either way. We do look set to be going into the open with short overnight inventory which can be good for a push up on the open.

So for me - once again, sit back and let it play out and then try to find an entry.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1914.25 -> 1968.50
Value - not much use on an elongated week like this
S1 1926.25 R1 1986.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1920.25 -> 1960.75 (pit) / 68.50 (globex)
Value - 1920.50 -> 1945
Globex - 1914.25 -> 1924.50

Settlement - 1925

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25

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Old October 13th, 2014, 05:08 AM   #400 (permalink)
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13th October

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Still headed down and now to a very obvious price point. We can see that this area was resistance in Apri/May last year and support in August this year.

It's not very easy to pinpoint the exact price here. 1881.75 is the August low and 1877.25 was the first time this area became resistance. There is a line at 67.50. So I'd not consider this level played out till we get through that 67.50 area.

So today I'm looking for a sign that this level is holding or breaking. We just had 2 days with 3 million contracts and there is still very little liquidity, so we could have another good run today, especially if we break down.

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Looking at last weeks profile we have the lower distribution bottoming out around 1915.25, so that area is worth watching if we do pop up.

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On Friday, we went through the 1909.50 level and bounced up before taking another shot and having a run down. Todays Globex session is 100% short so far and below Fridays range. So I'm looking at Fridays low as we go into today and then the breakdown point at 1906.50.

As per the past few days. I want to let levels play out and then get on momentum. Trying to catch tops & bottoms would be very painful right now.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1893.25 -> 1971
Value - not much use on an elongated week like this
S1 1868 R1 1945.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1893.25 -> 1931.25
Value - 1909.50 -> 1924.50
Globex - 1880.50 -> 1892.25

Settlement - 1894.25

Today: 1915.25, 1906.50, 1881.75

Long Term - 2003, 1977.75, 1970.25, 1951.25, 1934.50, 1909.50, 1877.25, 1867.50

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