DTs Pre Market Prep - futures io
futures io



DTs Pre Market Prep


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Jigsaw Trading with 1,135 posts (6,417 thanks)
    2. looks_two WilleeMac with 13 posts (9 thanks)
    3. looks_3 xplorer with 13 posts (13 thanks)
    4. looks_4 trendisyourfriend with 12 posts (10 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Jigsaw Trading with 5.7 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 2.6 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 DavidHP with 1.4 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 xplorer with 1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 265,946 views
    2. thumb_up 6,587 thanks given
    3. group 286 followers
    1. forum 1,333 posts
    2. attach_file 1,518 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

DTs Pre Market Prep

(login for full post details)
  #301 (permalink)
robster970
United Kingdom
 
 
Posts: 6 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 3 received

Having seen 49.50-50.00 area break this morning, am expecting the composite LVN at 43-44 to be tested today in RTH. I am expecting this area to hold due to the HVN around 40 on the initial test and for price to move back to try and break 50 and then possibly 53 before any attempt to go south again.

I appear to be embed an image because I have a post count < 5 !!!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES-140624.png
Views:	97
Size:	106.2 KB
ID:	149605  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to robster970 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #302 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


robster970 View Post
Having seen 49.50-50.00 area break this morning, am expecting the composite LVN at 43-44 to be tested today in RTH. I am expecting this area to hold due to the HVN around 40 on the initial test and for price to move back to try and break 50 and then possibly 53 before any attempt to go south again.

I appear to be embed an image because I have a post count < 5 !!!

You'd better get posting more then Rob!

I'll look our for that area - thanks.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #303 (permalink)
robster970
United Kingdom
 
 
Posts: 6 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 3 received


DionysusToast View Post
You'd better get posting more then Rob!

I'll look our for that area - thanks.

LOL - here is no. 5 - shackles are free!

Seriously tho' it looks like this to me right now.

- Algo take price upto 60 on Sunday night and now it is drifting back to value
- It is alternating between HVN's and LVN's controlled by short term participants
- I see 44 as a line in the sand LVN but see it pushing into the 40 area where there is an HVN - current hypothesis is value will be found here but you know, hypothesis is just that....a hypothesis.
- If value is not found there, it will take out 38 LVN and try to find value at 32 or 34 HVN's where long term participants will step in.

There has to be a downside test for value shortly - look at the daily volume........no buyers up here.....

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #304 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Trading: ticker tape
 
Posts: 2,893 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,683 given, 3,667 received


R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Itchymoku for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #305 (permalink)
robster970
United Kingdom
 
 
Posts: 6 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 3 received

LOL. Have we met before, you seem to know what I look like.....


Itchymoku View Post


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #306 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


Itchymoku View Post

lol - that's brilliant.... almost as good as the screaming sheep....


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #307 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

25th June



We took another visit to the high yesterday, ticked through it and sellers stepped in when we failed to maintain the high. So we are back into our potential range and potentially headed to 17.25 and 06.50 before turning back up. Of course after a sell off we can snap back, so basically if we don't see that snap back soon after the open, I'll be expecting us to complete the range downside.



In terms of the profile - we were expecting acceleration thru 46 down to 36. We were already in a good move down as we hit 46 yesterday and we didn't make it to 36. 36 could still act as support and I favor a slow grind down to 20 if it does not hold.



Here we can see the failure after 1 ticking the high. The Globex session is consolidating here. We could pop up to 46-48 area off the pit session open - if we do pop up and it holds that should be a good shorting opportunity as sellers should step in to push it down.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1939.75 -> 1960
Value 1948.50 -> 1959
S1 1932.25, R1 1965

Daily Numbers
Range - 1939.75 -> 1960
Value - 1947.50 -> 1959.25
Globex - 1940-> 1944.75

Today - 1946-1948, 1936

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #308 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

26th July



Yesterday we said "We could pop up to 46-48 area off the pit session open - if we do pop up and it holds that should be a good shorting opportunity as sellers should step in to push it down."

We did stall at 46 and come off, then again at 48 but sellers really couldn't get any traction yesterday. My long term bias is still towards a range in the white box but possibly the high of the box should be 1960 - that won't be adjusted until we actually complete the range to the downside. So short term I'm neutral because we are now just above the white box/ the old breakout point of 47.50 and that puts us potentially back in a resistance becoming support situation which is more bullish. So again, I'm looking for this level to break down so we can get some momentum down to 17.25 and 06.50.



This week we have been saying how a break of 46 should lead to a move down to 36 where the top of the lower distribution is from last week (the red line). We fell short of that level. Next time down, we are more likely to push through it to 20's but I'm still putting it as a line in the sand.



We can see the first hour yesterday couldn't make it above 46. What is interesting is that we took a visit to the 46-48 area from above and now the Globex low is in that area too. So that's still a key area to me.

So shorts - below 46-48 with caution at 36. Longs above 47.50 ideally. In between, I'm not that keen.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1937.50 -> 1960
Value 1943.75 -> 1955.25
S1 1932.25, R1 1965

Daily Numbers
Range - 1937.50 (globex) -> 1953.25
Value - 1944.75 -> 1951.25
Globex - 1947.25 -> 1950.75

Today - 1946-1948, 1936

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #309 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

27th July



We've spend most of the week rotating around the old high of 47.50. We have a potential range of 1936.25-1960 but I still think the larger range down to 1906.45 is in play.

It's the end of the month on Monday and we may just hang out up here till then and then start dropping back at the start of the next month.

This week, we'd been looking for support at 1936 and yesterday we hit 1936.25 before moving back up. Today I'll still be watching that area to see if we get support again. If not, then I think we'll grind to 20.



The weekly profile doesn't tell us much - a well, evenly distributed week that'll tend to churn in the middle. Value is well defined.



We did have a big drop and then a big push up yesterday but in perspective we really just extended the weeks range down a little. With this being Friday and not much high impact news, we could just see more rotation.

So I'm still expecting a breakdown to complete the larger range, this being the end of the month we may just hug the highs though. 36 is still interesting and a break of 36 would have me looking for 1920.

Of course being the end of the month there could be a 'window dressing' push up through the highs but that's down on my list of probabilities.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1936.25 -> 1960
Value 1943.50 -> 1954.25
S1 1932.25, R1 1965

Daily Numbers
Range - 1936.25 -> 1951.50 (pit) / 1952.50 (globex)
Value - 1939-> 1947.50
Globex - 1944.25 -> 1948.25

Today - 1946-1948, 1936-1937.25

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #310 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

30th June



Last day of June. Sure felt like August....

On Friday we said

"It's the end of the month on Monday and we may just hang out up here till then and then start dropping back at the start of the next month. So I'm still expecting a breakdown to complete the larger range, this being the end of the month we may just hug the highs though. 36 is still interesting and a break of 36 would have me looking for 1920.

Of course being the end of the month there could be a 'window dressing' push up through the highs but that's down on my list of probabilities.
"

Where we are now 51.50 as at posting - it seems almost rude not to end the month on a little pop through the highs. Looking left, we've had a good churn around these prices, so a poke out above 1960 or below 1937.25, should bring a bit of volume.

Apart from that, nothing screaming out to me that is should go one way instead of the other right now but I would like to see low 1900s again.



Last week was very evenly distributed and between 1954 and 1942, we have a high probability of churn. As we get to the areas it spent less time, we should loosen up a bit but don't get caught into thinking that faster action means it's going to pop the range. I'd want a fair amount of cushion in a trade that was relying expanding last weeks range. So buying 1960 in anticipation of a breakout is off the table for me. Buying 1957 in anticipation of a breakout would be a bit safer.



Friday was interesting, we stayed within the overnight range for most of the day, then just broke out in the last hour. We have stayed above that breakout point in todays Globex session so far. So keep an eye on 1949.75-1950 into the open of the pit session.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1936.25 -> 1960
Value 1943.75 -> 1953.75
S1 1938.75, R1 1962.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1942.75 (globex) / 1943.75 (pit) -> 1954
Value - 1945.50 -> 1949.50
Globex - 1950.75 -> 1953.75

Today - 1949.75-1950, 1936-1937.25

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #311 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

1st July



End of June out of the way - so are we going to drop like a hot rock now?

Yesterday we said

"It's the end of the month on Monday and we may just hang out up here till then and then start dropping back at the start of the next month. So I'm still expecting a breakdown to complete the larger range, this being the end of the month we may just hug the highs though. 36 is still interesting and a break of 36 would have me looking for 1920.

Of course being the end of the month there could be a 'window dressing' push up through the highs but that's down on my list of probabilities.

Where we are now 51.50 as at posting - it seems almost rude not to end the month on a little pop through the highs. Looking left, we've had a good churn around these prices, so a poke out above 1960 or below 1937.25, should bring a bit of volume.

"

We didn't get a pop through the high yesterday but we hugged the highs and so if that was month end window-dressing as opposed to just regular range bound behavor (a traverse to the top extreme of the range), then that should be evident early on.

Our short term range is 1937.25-1960. Any push through the highs need to be played with caution - there will be stops there but once they are taken, there's a good chance it'll roll over. So breakout traders beware. I'll be looking for signs of absorption up to a couple of points above the high for a potential short. If it pushes through the high more than a couple of points then I have to consider a long trade when we come back to test the old high. So basically if we go through the high, I have to assess if this is another move up or if it's done ranging.

The cautious short in the case of a headfake is to let it go up, let it come down and as soon and only if you see cumulative delta come off 10-15k then take a retracement short. It is a rangebound/faders market but downside target is 37.25, so we don't need to catch the high.



Profile-wise we are at the top of last weeks range. Not much to report other than rangebound behaviour whilst we are in the 'bulk' of last weeks distribution. So a downward move from here will probably be a churn. If we poke the highs and turn down we may get a bit more acceleration as value traders will now expect an excursion to the other side of value.



Yesterday we said

"day was interesting, we stayed within the overnight range for most of the day, then just broke out in the last hour. We have stayed above that breakout point in todays Globex session so far. So keep an eye on 1949.75-1950 into the open of the pit session."

We got as low as 50.25 in the pit session - and we tested twice. That should be a minor line in the sand if we move down today. I expect a small pop off the area as support but some acceleration if we push through. So again, be close to the exit button if you go long off it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1936.25 -> 1960
Value 1943.75 -> 1953.75
S1 1938.75, R1 1962.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1948 (globex) / 1950.25 (pit) -> 1956.75
Value - 1952 -> 1949.55
Globex - 1953.50 -> 1957

Today - 1949.75-1950, 1936-1937.25

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #312 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

3rd July

My apologies for no prep yesterday - I was sick as a dog. There will be no prep tomorrow!



We've popped up, so as usual, we want to see how we perform when we get back to the breakout point - 1960. Of course, we may see very little action today with tomorrow being such a major holiday.



Looking at the weekly profile, we can see that not much trading occurred between 58.50->64.50, so if we drop thru 64.50, we should see acceleration.



You can see the same thing here too. So for sure 64.50 is a level to watch. Obviously upside is fresh air so no levels up there for me but 71.75 is being added to our levels list as it's the new high.

We do have PMI at 10am and a raft of employment numbers at 8:30. If the market is quiet at 10:15, then that's as far as I'm willing to stay with it.

Happy 4th of July to all Americans out there.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1948 -> 1971.75
Value 1954.25 -> 1971.25 (but pretty meaningless as we have a double distribution)
S1 1938.75, R1 1962.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1964.50 -> 1970
Value - 1966 -> 1968
Globex - 1966 -> 1969.50 (5:40am EST)

Today - 1958.50, 1964.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #313 (permalink)
 WilleeMac 
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity
Trading: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 687 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 309 given, 614 received

Ride safe and keep the rubber side down

-Bill_M

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #314 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

7th July



Based on the trading last week, we popped out above 1960 and we have a small minor support at 1964.50. We then had another breakout after that through.



On a weekly basis, we can see 3 distributions - the upper one represents a small amount of trading leading to the holiday.

We can see small amounts of trading between 70.25 and 74.50. So if 74.50 breaks we should see 70.25 quickly and that may act as support. Similarly - if 1965 breaks, we should accelerate to 58.50 area and that may act as support. Between 65 and 70.25, we may chop a bit too - although I don't see that follows for the distributions above and below necessarily.



We can see this thinly traded upper distribution here. So it's the lower area below 65 that represents the most predictable run.

So looking to downside levels as lines in the sand and fresh air above.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1948 -> 1978.25
Value 1955.25 -> 1978.25
S1 1957.50, R1 1987.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 19674.50 -> 1977.50
Value - 1975 -> 1976
Globex - 1973.50 -> 1977.50

Today - 1974.50, 1970.25, 1965, 1958.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #315 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

8th July



Yesterday we probably had more than a few US traders on vacation and the action was fairly narrow. We did continue down to 67.25 but no test of 64.50 or the 1960 level to tell us if we are due more movement upwards or back into range.



As per yesterday

"On a weekly basis, we can see 3 distributions - the upper one represents a small amount of trading leading to the holiday.

We can see small amounts of trading between 70.25 and 74.50. So if 74.50 breaks we should see 70.25 quickly and that may act as support. Similarly - if 1965 breaks, we should accelerate to 58.50 area and that may act as support. Between 65 and 70.25, we may chop a bit too - although I don't see that follows for the distributions above and below necessarily.
"

No change in opinion there. We are now in the middle distribution and I don't see acceleration till we pop below it.




Yesterday started with a poke down to the middle distribution (1970)- we came to a tick of it and then pushed up to the upper distribution (1974.50), went 2 ticks thru and then rolled back down, to penetrate that lower distribution. We are now sitting in that area. So I'm hoping we can get to 65 today and looking for decisiveness whether it breaks OR holds. If it holds, I think we have a chance for buyers to step in and drive it up and if it breaks, I think we have stops below.

Upside - also looking at 1972 the retrace high yesterday PM.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1948 -> 1978.25
Value 1955.25 -> 1978.25
S1 1957.50, R1 1987.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1967.25 - >1975 (pit) / 1977.50 (globex)
Value - 1968.50 -> 1972
Globex - 1967.25 -> 1971.25

Today - 1974.50, 1972, 1964.50->1965, 1958.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #316 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

10th July



So we dipped back into the old range and then moved up again. So we are looking for this 1960-1972 to break to really give us an indication on what happens next. Between that, I expect us to chop a bit.



We have another triple distribution week. As we can see. Not much really much to add to this. but I still see above 1970 to be slightly faster action.



Again not much to add from the split profiles but 1958.25 looks important to the downside, so a break of 1960 should be played cautiously with this there.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1952.75 -> 1977.50
Value 1958 -> 1970.25
S1 1957.50, R1 1987.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1958.25 >1968.25
Value - 1960.50 -> 1966
Globex - 1960.25 -> 1968.25

Today - 1958.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #317 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

11th July



This is getting interesting. Yesterday we said

"So we are looking for this 1960-1972 to break to really give us an indication on what happens next. Between that, I expect us to chop a bit."

Well 60 broke but in the Globex session. We made it through our 47.50 line which was an earlier breakout point and the top of the lowest of the above 3 potential ranges we marked out. We got as low as 45.25 in the Globex session but then quickly recovered in the pit session. So we do have the potential for a 47.40-78.25 range.

On the other hand considering where we stopped, people will be looking at this as a downwards channel, so if sellers do step in again and 47.50 breaks, I'll be looking for 1936 and then 1917. It's not done a good job of moving down of late though.



The weekly profile doesn't help much in terms of areas it might break. It looks pretty thick from 55.50 to 63.00 but that's relative and considering yesterday, I don't think we can presume it'll chop there.



Yesterday was interesting - we had the big drop down and then a recovery up to 1964 which was a single print in the Globex session. So I think we should keep an eye on 1964 today. similarly 1954.50 was a single print on the way back up yesterday and just below our VAL. So the 1954-1955 area is also of interest.

Settlement was 57.50 yesterday so the Globex session could be considered long as of typing but overall it's still within the range that developed later in the day, so that's not giving any clues right now.

So 1954-1955 & 1964 are the most immediate areas to watch off the open. If one side holds, we have a trade to the opposite end and a potential break.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1945.25 -> 1977.50
Value 1955.25 -> 1969.75
S1 1957.50, R1 1987.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1945.25 (globex) / 1945.75 (pit) -> 1964 (pit) / 1968.25 (globex)
Value - 1955 -> 1962.50
Globex - 1956.25 -> 1963.50

Today - 1954-1955, 1964

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #318 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

14th July



On thursday we were looking for the 60-70 range to break. Then it broke, hit a downside reference and now we are back in the 60-70 range.

So today - 72 could hold or we could get to the top of the range. At the top of the range, of we can roll over, I'll be looking for 47.50 again.



We can see that below 1964 it's pretty thick below us, so if we get into that I expect it to be slow moving. Other than that, not much to see.



We can see Fridays range was 1953-1963.50. So to the high end of Thursdays pit session ore the middle if you include the Globex. So I think we have to watch 63.50 once the pit session opens. If we get through that I'll be watching the VAH at 1960.25. Both looking to see if we find support there.

Above us -1 1972 is potential resistance and through that I'd expect at least a poke thru the high before rolling - or rather I'd PREFER to see a poke through the high before rolling over because I'll feel more confident about fading it if we poke through and roll over.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1945.25 -> 1977.50
Value 1953.75 -> 1968.75
S1 1947.25, R1 1976.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1953 (pit) -> 1963 (globex) / 1963.50 (pit)
Value - 1955.25 -> 1960.25
Globex - 1962.50 -> 1969.75
Settlement - 1962.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #319 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

15th July



Yesterday we said

"On thursday we were looking for the 60-70 range to break. Then it broke, hit a downside reference and now we are back in the 60-70 range.

So today - 72 could hold or we could get to the top of the range. At the top of the range, of we can roll over, I'll be looking for 47.50 again.
"

And we got through 72 - all the way to 74 and not much really happened at all. We have neither rolled, nor did we see buyers jump in. Whilst we did have some nice action at the end of last week, we have reverted back to what appears to be the start of a loooooong summer. We still do have potential for a run if we pop up a but right now I'm not expecting much. We do have news at 8:30am and at 10am Yellen is speaking but I don't think we are in for any suprises.

If we do get up to the all time highs, it will be interesting. I'd expect more of a whimper than a bang but



We are still in last weeks range so from a weekly perspective. Not much here really.



If this was a lazy poke through 72, then we need sellers to jump on this and push it through yesterdays low, if we can get down past there, then I think we have a good case for 60 as a target.

So expecting a slow day. Weekly wise there's not much to go off. First order of the day is a break of yesterdays pit session range and I think a downside break has more potential than an upside break. Either way, if we see people step in at the break of yesterdays range, I'll be looking for a retrace to the extreme of the range for a continuation.


Weekly Numbers

Range - 1945.25 -> 1977.50
Value 1953.75 -> 1968.75
S1 1947.25, R1 1976.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1962.50 (globex) / 1969.75 (pit) - 1974
Value - 1971 -> 1973
Globex - 1970.25-> 1973.25
Settlement - 1971

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #320 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

16th July

This market doesn't appear to have decided if it's summertime or not...



Yesterday we said....

"If this was a lazy poke through 72, then we need sellers to jump on this and push it through yesterdays low, if we can get down past there, then I think we have a good case for 60 as a target.

So expecting a slow day. Weekly wise there's not much to go off. First order of the day is a break of yesterdays pit session range and I think a downside break has more potential than an upside break. Either way, if we see people step in at the break of yesterdays range, I'll be looking for a retrace to the extreme of the range for a continuation."

SO we did manage a push down - a point through our 59.75 level and then sellers pushed it back to 70. That's as far as it got in the pit session which indicates more 60-70 ranging BUT in the globex session so far we've been up to 74.

So we do look set for a test of the highs and buyers could step in there on a break - or it could be a headfake. The headfake after a break of the high should put us back to 60 again.



The weekly profile seems to indicate choppier action till we get through 74 and at that point we could make a break, so I'm looking at that into the open.



We have 70.50 as the high of the pullback yesterday, so I'll be watching that into the open. Also, the Globex session is quite long and so we may have an initial snap back off the open..

So a break above 74 and a potential run to the highs is possible and an eye on 70.50. Beware an initial sell off though. If we do roll down from here, it will be lower confidence for me if we don't hit the highs first.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1958.75 -> 1976.25
Value 1966.75 -> 1973.25
S1 1947.25, R1 1976.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1958.75 -> 1976.25
Value - 11962.75 -> 1970.25
Globex - 1967 -> 1974.25

Settlement - 1968

Today - 1970.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #321 (permalink)
 RichardHK 
Hong Kong
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, TWS
Broker: IB/Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 236 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 132 given, 331 received

@DT So expecting a slow day. Weekly wise there's not much to go off. First order of the day is a break of yesterdays pit session range and... <

Given that the open outcry is now much less than 20% of regular trading hours trades, would it be better to not use the confusing 'pit session' phrase? Throws me everytime. 'RTH' may be better - shorter too.

We are all techno-geeks here, right? No need to party with the outmoded, uncivilized floor guys. Well past the time to move on.

Richard
Hong Kong
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to RichardHK for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #322 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


RichardHK View Post
@DT So expecting a slow day. Weekly wise there's not much to go off. First order of the day is a break of yesterdays pit session range and... <

Given that the open outcry is now much less than 20% of regular trading hours trades, would it be better to not use the confusing 'pit session' phrase? Throws me everytime. 'RTH' may be better - shorter too.

We are all techno-geeks here, right? No need to party with the outmoded, uncivilized floor guys. Well past the time to move on.

Look out - The Analiens have landed...

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #323 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

17th July



We've been to the top of the range and back under 1970, so now to see if sellers can take the reigns and push us to 1959.85 and then to 1947.50.



It looks thick down to 1966, after which, I expect some acceleration. Not much else to say about the weeks profile, it's pretty well distributed.



On yesterdays Globex low was 1967, close to our 1966 level and so I'll be watching that general area to see if sellers step in on a break. To the upside, it's the highs again, so any bounce off this level should take us for a test of 78. So not many scenarios today - we could chop about but a break of 1966-67 will be interesting from a short perspective and a hold there would be interesting in terms of a potential run to the top.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1958.75 -> 1978
Value 1967.25 -> 1974.25
S1 1947.25, R1 1976.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1967 (globex) / 1969.25 (pit)-> 1978
Value - 1971.75 -> 1975.75
Globex - 1968.25 -> 1975

Settlement - 1974.75

Today - 1966-1970

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #324 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

July 18th

If we go back to the 14th, we were expecting this:



And here we are right now:



So we retested the highs, rolled and got back quite a way though our 47.50 level.

Now, because that has been completed and apparently rejected, we could be on our way back to the highs. But the dip down and rejection has been in the Globex session. Yesterdays pit session low was 1949. So I think today we have to see what happens around 47.50 at the pit open. We could potentially carry on down to complete the larger range.



We are now the main distribution for this week. 1963 and above sees us moving through that area. If 1963 holds, that will be pretty bearish. We also have a single print at 58.50 - which is just below our 59.75 level. So I'll be watching that first, then 1963 if we do pop up off the open.



Todays Globex session is mostly short - it's only 5:30 AM EST here, so that could recover. If we stay below yesterdays settlement of 1953.50 into the open, there could be an initial re-balance up.

Downside - if we break 47.50 again, I'm looking for 1937 and then 1917.25

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1942.50 -> 1978
Value 1963.75 -> 1974.50
S1 1947.25, R1 1976.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1949 -> 1976
Value - 1960.50 -> 1974
Globex - 1942.50 -> 1956

Settlement - 1953.50

Today - 1958.50-1959.75, 1963

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #325 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

21st July



We had a couple of large range days on Thursday and Friday. Volume 2.4 million on Thursday on the way down and 1.7 million on the way back up on Friday. We can attribute Thursdays sell off to the Malaysian Airlines tragedy. It's pretty common to go on and recover the lost ground the day after a move like that, so Friday isn't really telling us much.

There is no reason to expect similar volatility today in my opinion. We could but I don't see what would drive it. If we consider where we were heading into Thursday, we were at the top of the range and looking to see if we could break the range upside and if we did, if there was any demand up there.

So today, we are looking for signs that the upside move is done and that we are headed back to 47.50 or if we are having another run at the highs.

If we look left, we can see we've spent plenty of time in the mid 60s upwards, so we could be choppy in the process of testing the key levels around here.



We can see the upper distribution from last week is 63.75-> 75.50, so again, within that range, we could experience chop.



On Thursday we pulled back to 65.50 and in the Globex session so far, that has been our low, so I'll be watching that level at the open to see if sellers jump in there. Fridays settlement was 71.50 so right now it looks like we'll be short into the open which gives us the possibility of an initial reaction upwards. If we can get through Fridays high of 74.25, then we might get some acceleration up into the top of the range.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1942.50 -> 1978
Value 1963.75 -> 1975.25
S1 1954.25, R1 1983.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1942.50 (globex) / 57.25 (pit) -> 1974.25
Value - 1963.25 -> 1972.75
Globex - 1965.50 -> 1971.50

Settlement - 1971.50

Today - 1965.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #326 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

22nd July



Yesterdays expectation was that we'd chop from 63.75-75.50 and we'd likely accelerate below that level. We did get a breakdown to 59.00, 3 ticks below our 59.75 level but e couldn't hold it and couldn't get down as far as Fridays pit session low (1957.25).



Now we are back into the 63.75-75.50 area. You could argue that hitting turning close to the 59.75 level yesterday gives us a good chance of buyers driving it through the highs.

Yesterdays pit high was 1970 and so far the Globex session is within yesterdays range which was within Fridays pit session range.

Going into today I'm neutral. Globex session looks neutral. We are in a range area and I'll be looking for the range to break for a decisive move. Other than that, I'm watching the usual levels yesterdays highs/lows for bounces for smaller trades. So if we move up off the open, bounce off a level, I'll play downside but not expect too much from it. If the range breaks, I'll expect more of a run.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1942.50 -> 1978
Value 1963.75 -> 1975.25
S1 1954.25, R1 1983.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1959 -> 1970 (pit) / 1971.50 (globex)
Value - 1962.50 -> 1968.50
Globex - 1965.25 -> 1969.50

Settlement - 1966.25

Today - 1957.25, 1974.25 - Fridays Pit High/Low - worth watching today

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #327 (permalink)
 wldman 
Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,341 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,978 given, 8,859 received


RichardHK View Post
@DT So expecting a slow day. Weekly wise there's not much to go off. First order of the day is a break of yesterdays pit session range and... <

Given that the open outcry is now much less than 20% of regular trading hours trades, would it be better to not use the confusing 'pit session' phrase? Throws me everytime. 'RTH' may be better - shorter too.

We are all techno-geeks here, right? No need to party with the outmoded, uncivilized floor guys. Well past the time to move on.

Not sure about tone but either way the "pit session" is not what it used to be. There are still valuable clues found there but the relative low volume does change how to view things in my opinion. I focus on the volume regardless of "time", that is to say that I pay attention to activity.

Here is one item to consider though. The guys that are trading from the floors generally, are either the very best super seasoned professionals or they are working directly or indirectly for the best. So how they respond, what they do, the levels they respect are all valuable pieces of information in some regard.

The "screen" on the other hand, while it generates most of the volume, also is the venue for most of the fools set out to get rich quick because they read a book or can code a color change MA.

Safe to say that all things must be considered, viewed for what they are, then retained as valuable or discarded as distraction.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to wldman for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #328 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


wldman View Post
Not sure about tone but either way the "pit session" is not what it used to be. There are still valuable clues found there but the relative low volume does change how to view things in my opinion. I focus on the volume regardless of "time", that is to say that I pay attention to activity.

Here is one item to consider though. The guys that are trading from the floors generally, are either the very best super seasoned professionals or they are working directly or indirectly for the best. So how they respond, what they do, the levels they respect are all valuable pieces of information in some regard.

The "screen" on the other hand, while it generates most of the volume, also is the venue for most of the fools set out to get rich quick because they read a book or can code a color change MA.

Safe to say that all things must be considered, viewed for what they are, then retained as valuable or discarded as distraction.

What I pay attention to is the times that the stocks in the S&P500 are trading. So we could call it the "stock session" or "equity session". That's basically when the pit trades - when the NASDAQ day session starts.

As for the relevance of the S&P pit - it's largely irrelevant now. In terms of the guys trading from the floor - there's about 10 of them. Most of the day, they are standing around doing very little.

What they do is mostly take large institutional trades and then lay those off against the mini's. So if an institution wants to hedge with 500 big S&Ps, they'll pay up a few ticks for guaranteed price with a floor trader who will then lay that off against the mini S&P. They are playing for ticks.

The volume going through these guys is irrelevant but basically they are arbritrage traders and if you are looking for a hint of a directional bias, I think it's no longer a good place to look.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #329 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

23rd July



Yesterday was very interesting - we popped through the old high and - nothing. Nobody was there. We popped a few ticks, fell away then took another pop later but there was just no real willing to buy up there.

It is possible we just need to shake out a few longs (i.e. people that need to sell) before we can move any higher.

It is also possible that we will just sink like a stone!

So todays (and probably the next few days) game is to get an idea as to whether we are going to maintain these highs and then push up or if we are set to drop back to 47.50.

We do have a level below us at 1971.75, so that's a line in the sand - we've come down to 72.25 so far. If we test this and buyers step in, then it looks more decisive to the upside.



So today if we move up, looking for signs of a rejection of the high or yesterdays value high. If we open below yesterdays low, then also looking for signs of a rejection of yesterdays low - all things that sellers will often jump on. That gives us decent short opportunities. On a breakout up, looking for a good pullback level to lean on for a continuation.

To the downside, I just really have 71.75 from here and if we can hold below that, I think sellers will step in and take us to 59.75 and then 47.50.

It's all about seeing commitment from one side or the other to me. Any weak, flimsy moves like yesterdays probe up will be ignored and I'll try to jump in on a continuation if I feel one side is giving up.

This may take a few days to play out and so it may be a day to pick off some smaller trades.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1959 -> 1980.50
Value 1963 -> 1975
S1 1954.25, R1 1983.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1965.25 (globex) / 1973.75 (pit) -> 1980.50
Value - 1976.50 -> 1979.50
Globex - 1972.25 -> 1978.25

Settlement - 1975

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #330 (permalink)
 wldman 
Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,341 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,978 given, 8,859 received


DionysusToast View Post
What I pay attention to is the times that the stocks in the S&P500 are trading. So we could call it the "stock session" or "equity session". That's basically when the pit trades - when the NASDAQ day session starts.

As for the relevance of the S&P pit - it's largely irrelevant now. In terms of the guys trading from the floor - there's about 10 of them. Most of the day, they are standing around doing very little.

What they do is mostly take large institutional trades and then lay those off against the mini's. So if an institution wants to hedge with 500 big S&Ps, they'll pay up a few ticks for guaranteed price with a floor trader who will then lay that off against the mini S&P. They are playing for ticks.

The volume going through these guys is irrelevant but basically they are arbritrage traders and if you are looking for a hint of a directional bias, I think it's no longer a good place to look.

everyone can have an opinion based on whatever empirical evidence or whatever cognitive bias they like. We agree that the influence of the floor trader is not what it used to be. As for the pit session being de ninimis, that may be farther that I'd go.

In July, I have 4 trades that have occurred before 7:20 am CST and zero trades that have a time stamp after 10:54 am CST. The wldman session is after all, all that matters. 7:30 am-10:30 am.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #331 (permalink)
 tflanner 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Ninja
Trading: ES, Ym, NQ, VTI, SPY, VXUS
 
Posts: 166 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 797 given, 315 received

thx for your daily contribution. i find it helpful.

there is nothing going on at the floors of chicago or ny. has not been for many, many years....with the exception of options.

i believe the S&P pit makes up 2% (or less) of the daily S&P 500 volume...with ES making up 98% of the volume.

Had a brother in the S&P pit since 1982....he is no longer there. When i switched from Treasury futures to indices i asked him if i should go work on the floor in the S&P pit. He said no. He said if you want to 'arb' 1 or 2 orders a day, then go for it. He went on to say that even the guys who were trying to get 'arb' edges were getting run over.

For some reason a lot of educators and people on this forum still hold on the idea that the floor is some mystical place with amazing traders. Has not been the case for many years. If it were the case, I would be down there instead of trading from my home with kids running around

Finally, i knew 100 or so S&P pit traders (some very good)...not 1 of them is on the floor anymore.

The Market is Smarter than You Are
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tflanner for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #332 (permalink)
 WilleeMac 
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity
Trading: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 687 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 309 given, 614 received

In 2006 (?) I went to the CME for an options seminar with Dan Sheridan.

Anyway we went to the floor and the pit was basically dead

Several other pits were non-existent with trading being done electronically

Just my2cents

Ride safe

-Bill

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #333 (permalink)
 wldman 
Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,341 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,978 given, 8,859 received

We are in general agreement. Right, CBOE is where I was most familiar and I am not sure I know anyone that is still on the floor personally. I think what I was objecting to was the general characterization that the floor guys where goons. While that may be somewhat true it is not all they/we were it is just the trait that had to dominate to survive in that competitive environment.

So past that little attack I was stating that the valuable times are within the RTH, for me between 7 am and 11 am CST.

Sorry for the butt in...carry on guys.

Enjoy the thread as well.

Dan

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #334 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


wldman View Post
everyone can have an opinion based on whatever empirical evidence or whatever cognitive bias they like. We agree that the influence of the floor trader is not what it used to be. As for the pit session being de ninimis, that may be farther that I'd go.

In July, I have 4 trades that have occurred before 7:20 am CST and zero trades that have a time stamp after 10:54 am CST. The wldman session is after all, all that matters. 7:30 am-10:30 am.

Agreed.

Earlier this year, I was taken on a tour of the floor and was lucky enough to spend an hour in the S&P pit going over what they were doing and talking to a few of the guys. So my observations are based mostly on that short period.

As has been stated - other pits are actually fairly busy - options but also grains & energies.

In terms of the 9:30am EST start for the ES - it's when the stocks open. So the personality of the ES changes at that time thru to 16:15 when the stocks close.

It doesn't make the pit session "de ninimis" or trivial- it just means that this derivative market behaves a certain way when the underlying is trading. The underlying of the ES is the 500 stocks in the index.

The pit traders I would say are trivial to the overall market but not to the people (or paper) who are getting a guaranteed fill (at a price) on their hedge trades. They provide a service, I just don't feel it indicative of "what will happen next".

Of course, you can trade almost 24x5 - but personality changes from Asia thru Europe through the US sessions.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #335 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,587 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,079 given, 11,390 received


DionysusToast View Post
Agreed.

Earlier this year, I was taken on a tour of the floor and was lucky enough to spend an hour in the S&P pit going over what they were doing and talking to a few of the guys. So my observations are based mostly on that short period.

As has been stated - other pits are actually fairly busy - options but also grains & energies.

In terms of the 9:30am EST start for the ES - it's when the stocks open. So the personality of the ES changes at that time thru to 16:15 when the stocks close.

It doesn't make the pit session "de ninimis" or trivial- it just means that this derivative market behaves a certain way when the underlying is trading. The underlying of the ES is the 500 stocks in the index.

The pit traders I would say are trivial to the overall market but not to the people (or paper) who are getting a guaranteed fill (at a price) on their hedge trades. They provide a service, I just don't feel it indicative of "what will happen next".

Of course, you can trade almost 24x5 - but personality changes from Asia thru Europe through the US sessions.

I guess you could say the personality changes when rth starts. even if it's only the volume.

but one could argue that stocks open based on what the futures are doing. all the after market action from yesterday, today's pre market and other global markets are "included" in the futures. so my analysis is based on eth. the only thing from the rth session I pay attention to are gaps.

and for the pit traders, I was always looking at them as a tourist attraction, nothing more

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #336 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

24th July



Yesterday was the 2 days after popping the high and just 1.1 million contracts traded. It's pretty weak volume-wise and the chart also shows it's not quite decisive yet. It could go either way, so still looking for clues as to which way this will go. Of course, there's not much trading up here but sellers are not making any effort to sell it down and we are making marginally higher highs each day.



The weekly profile shows volume starting to form at the highs but that's relative to the weeks volume which has been low. So I think looking at this to confirm the market likes trading these prices is premature at this point.



Yesterday was just under a 9 point range. What does pique my my interest is that in the PM and the current Globex session, we have held the old high of 78.25 - if that holds from above into the open, I think we have a decent chance of short term buyers jumping in to push it up from there.

Even if we breach that in the remainder of the Globex session, I'll be looking to see how we react there.

I'll be watching the usual levels into the open to see if we can get an initial reaction but won't be expecting much opportunity unless New Home Sales at 10am gives us a bump. This is clearly a make or break area, so if we knock out a downside levels buyers could jump in but as per yesterday this might take days before it finally goes one way or the other.

My presumption then will be that early swings will provide the best opportunity and that there might not be much on afterwards. If it does break decisively either way, I'll probably not be there to see it if I do manage to get an early trade to work out.


Weekly Numbers

Range - 1959 -> 1983.50
Value 1963 -> 1978
S1 1954.25, R1 1983.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1972.25 (globex) / 1975.75 (pit) -> 1983.50
Value - 1979.75 -> 1983.50
Globex - 1978.25 -> 1983.50

Settlement - 1980.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #337 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

25th July

An early prep today as I'm off to the beach for the weekend...



Since we broke the highs, we've been waiting for a sign that it's going to breakdown or carry on up. Or rather - waiting to see buyers/sellers push it one way so that we can jump on for the ride.

It's still unresolved. As per day 1 of "new highs" we said it may take a few days to resolve. Now it's Friday and whilst it could break today, Fridays are usually slower - hence me taking the day off. If I were trading today, I'd give it till 10:45 and if it was slow, I'd switch off and do something else.

What is good to the upside is that we are building volume here and that we aren't convincingly breaking down below 78.25. We also made a marginal new high. As yet though - nothing has happened that cause buyers/sellers to jump in.

So - I'd be inclined to fade the ranges and let it break before taking a continuation trade.

If we head down and sellers jump in, then 71.50 is the next line in the sand and then 59.75. Below that we have 47.50 which is where I see the bottom of the range we were in before we popped the high.



We can see the old high - the blue line and that we had probes below it but not able to hold. In the Globex session so far (1am EST), it is below that but we need to see what happens on the Pit open. If we open below 78.25 and that holds as resistance, I think we'll see some decent sell side participation. Other than that - I'd be looking to trade the range.

As per yesterday - early bird trades are worth considering as you might wait an hour for the next opportunity.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 1959 -> 1985.75
Value 1969.75 -> 1984.75
S1 1954.25, R1 1983.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1976.75 (globex) / 1979.50 (pit) -> 1985.75
Value - 1981 -> 1984
Globex - check later on... - too early now

Settlement - 1980.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #338 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

28th July



The market has taken a move down off the highs, so whilst it could move up from here, I'm biased towards a move to 1959.75 or 1947.50. So today, I'm looking mostly for signs of continuation downside.



Last weeks profile is quite well spread out so at this point, I don't see it's really giving us any "make or break" levels.



On Friday we took a couple of bounces around the 1974 level which is also the VAH of Fridays pit session. Today I'll be watching to see if we make it there. If we get there and sellers jump in, i'll be looking to take a short. Other than that, a break of Fridays low will also be a good short but slightly riskier as it might be a headfake down. In face, we already had that once in the Globex session.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1959 -> 1985.75
Value 1970.50 -> 1984
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1968 -> 1977.50 (pit) / 1980.75 (globex)
Value - 1970 -> 1974
Globex - 1966.50 -> 1973.25

Settlement - 1971.50
Today - 1974

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #339 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

29th July



Yesterday we had:

"The market has taken a move down off the highs, so whilst it could move up from here, I'm biased towards a move to 1959.75 or 1947.50. So today, I'm looking mostly for signs of continuation downside"

We didn't get down to 59.75 - buyers jumped in ahead of that at 60.75.

So today - slightly less clear than yesterday - so looking for signs we are heading back up or signs that we will go to a lower reference point - 47.50.



We can see a minor level at 71.75 and it is possible that we lean on that to go up off the open - but it's not a high confidence move. Into today I'll be mostly watching Mondays extremes/value area to see if 'the opposition' step in. If not, looking for continuation after a break.

Apart from 71.75, any intraday opportunities that come up within yesterdays value area will be low confidence.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1959 -> 1985.75
Value 1970.50 -> 1984
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1960.75 -> 1976
Value - 1963.50 -> 1973
Globex - 1968.25 -> 1974

Settlement - 1973

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #340 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

30th June

One more day to the end of the month. We started the month at 54.50, so at least for the next 2 days, keep that on the radar. There may be some end of month "window dressing" - a push to new highs. Just keep that in mind just in case.



Yesterday we said:

"So today - slightly less clear than yesterday - so looking for signs we are heading back up or signs that we will go to a lower reference point - 47.50."

So if it was unclear yesterday - it should be confusing today as yesterday we got to the 1978.50 "top of range" - went a point through and then went back down close to our 59.75 level.

Early action was quite poor - we went down to test the prior days VAH/Settlement - then buyers stepped in but sluggishly. We rotated for a while and then we started working down. So those that traded the bounce off the VAH got a little bit for their money but the faders at the top got more.

Anyway - looking at the 2 hour chart - if you look left from where we are - it's a lot of chop. So I think whilst we are in the 1960-1980 range, it's mostly about taking advantage of intraday opportunities off the profile/prior day than trying to take bias off the longer term charts.



So here's the daily profiles. We can see that Tuesdays profile is almost like Mondays profile turned on its head. Breaking down thru 1959.75 should see us clear to 47.50. Other than that I'm watching yesterdays value area - which has held so far in the Globex session. I'm also watching 67 & 76 where we had the intraday reversals yesterday.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1960.75 -> 1979.50
Value 1966.50 -> 1974.50
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1963 -> 1979.50
Value - 19639.50 > 1978.50
Globex - 1963.25 -> 1970

Settlement - 1973

Today only - 1967, 1976

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #341 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

31st July

Last day of the month! Always beware a pump up.



Yesterday we were looking at a narrowing range and the prospect that the 60-80 area would be tough in terms of determining bias because of prior chop.

Yesterday we poked down below the 59.75 level. Then we popped back up and stalled just a tick below our 71.75 level then settled at 1965.

So from the chart, it does look like we are moving down but I'm still fairly neutral between 60-80. For another push down, I'm looking at 47.50 as a line in the sand.



The profile is showing classic normal distribution this week - so it doesn't tell us much other than if we get above 1964, we should travel to the opposite end of weekly value to 1973.50



Mondays range is market out - and we are back within that range.

Looking at today - the 2 hour chart looks like a channel down but the week so far really looks neutral. The days have had decent ranges. To an extent, the bigger picture is irrelevant because even without a break of a major level, we are seeing decent ranges.

I would still keep an eye on 59.75 for a breakdown & run to 47.50 - but other than that - look for a move up to the high of value for the week now that we are at the low of value.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1956.50 -> 1979.50
Value 1964.25 -> 1973.50
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1956.50 -> 1974.25
Value - 1959 -> 1967
Globex - 1961.50 -> 1965.50

Settlement - 1973

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #342 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
Legendary Market Wizard
New Orleans, La (Mardi Gras City)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Ninjatrader / Optimus Futures / AmpFutures
Trading: ES / 6E / 6B / CL
 
DavidHP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,379 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 10,173 given, 2,428 received


DionysusToast View Post
31st July
I'm looking at 47.50 as a line in the sand.

Ok, I'm impressed.

What made you think 1947.50 would be the line in the sand.

Looks like you came very close to that line pre-market.

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #343 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

Update - we could see buyers step in all the way to the highs over the coming days - we are @ the bottom of the range - but if 47.50 breaks, I have 36.50 & 17.25 as targets

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #344 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
Legendary Market Wizard
New Orleans, La (Mardi Gras City)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Ninjatrader / Optimus Futures / AmpFutures
Trading: ES / 6E / 6B / CL
 
DavidHP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,379 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 10,173 given, 2,428 received


DionysusToast View Post
Update - we could see buyers step in all the way to the highs over the coming days - we are @ the bottom of the range - but if 47.50 breaks, I have 36.50 & 17.25 as targets


Hmm two targets in one day.
You must have a voo doo doll on the market

LOL

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #345 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


DavidHP View Post
Hmm two targets in one day.
You must have a voo doo doll on the market

LOL

yeah - we did get big bounces off both areas 47.50 and 36.50 before ploughing through them.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day

Basically they are just levels I picked up off the 2 hour chart, places we've reacted before. I see them more as "lines in the sand" - so both looking for an initial reaction and people bailing out and perpetuating a move when the level fails.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #346 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

1st August



Just to put things in perspective. This move down is still not huge. Therefore the sky might not be falling in. On the flip side it's nowhere near "it surely can't go down any more, can it?" either.

Volume was high by the end of yesterday - 2.7 million, so plenty of participation on the way down.



We got through both our 47.50 and 36.50 levels yesterday, the next downside target I have is 17.25 and 06.50. Even at 06.50 - I'd still look at this action as an overall range. At these levels I will be looking for signs that buyers are stepping in to take us back to 1980. Sure - this could be the start of a new bull market but right now all we are doing is heading back down towards prices we had in May.



At the end of the Globex session yesterday, it did appear that 47.50 was going to hold. We'd already had a decent sell off overnight and the day started off slow. After 10am it picked up and we headed down pausing again at 36.50 which held for a while till sellers hit it again. Then we came back to 39 and buyers couldn't take it any higher. So into today, I'll be watching the 36.50-39.00 area as a line in the sand. I'd expect some short stops above that.

Other than that, the daily low and the 17.50 level, not much to play off. Basically looking to see if we get continuation or recovery today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923 -> 1979.50
Value - mostly irrelevant after yesterdays move
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 1923.50 -> 1952.75 (pit) / 1965.50
Value - also not really relevant from a trend day like yesterday
Globex - 1923.25 -> 1930.75

Settlement - 1936.50-1939 range

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #347 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
Legendary Market Wizard
New Orleans, La (Mardi Gras City)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Ninjatrader / Optimus Futures / AmpFutures
Trading: ES / 6E / 6B / CL
 
DavidHP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,379 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 10,173 given, 2,428 received


DionysusToast View Post
yeah - we did get big bounces off both areas 47.50 and 36.50 before ploughing through them.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day

Basically they are just levels I picked up off the 2 hour chart, places we've reacted before. I see them more as "lines in the sand" - so both looking for an initial reaction and people bailing out and perpetuating a move when the level fails.

LOL yeah I know.
It is just that if CNBC saw your predictions, you would be the highlight speaker this morning.
And all the interviewers asking:
"Where is the market going? And why are we in this handbasket?"

Thanks

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to DavidHP for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #348 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

4th August



Decent volume on Friday - 2.88 million contracts but we settled very close to the open. 1920.25 was the open & 1918.50 was the settlement. We didn't get to the 1906.50 level yet and if that breaks then I think you have an argument for 85.50 being a level but other than that I'm looking for 67.50.

So I think the game is the same today watch for a break and if not, just take advantage of the decent ranges we have been having. Even Friday was 22 point range despite the fact we got nowhere. Just have an eye on the volume/pace off the open on the offchance we lose the volatility.



On Friday the pit session basically extended the globex range, so I think those extremes are good areas to play off. Other than that, I see 26.75 being of interest - the late pullback up before we drove down to the close. Fridays Value area is also interesting as we have traded within that in the globex.

We can also see that if we break above 32 - we don't have a lot of resistance to 46.50 - so that's worth keeping an eye on.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1910.25 -> 1979.50
Value - mostly irrelevant with such an elongated week
S1 1892.50, R1 1962

Daily Numbers
Range - 1910.25 -> 1932.25
Value - 1917.50 -> 1929
Globex - 1919.25 -> 1927

Settlement - 1918.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #349 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

5th August



Volume was slightly lower yesterday at 1.6 million.

We are also at an interesting point - we have a couple of levels above at 36.50 and 47.50 that have acted as areas of support. So whilst one scenario on the table is a move up to 1980, if we do reverse at 36.50 or 47.50, traders could take that as a sign that we can head down to the 1800's again.

So I'm watching 36.50 and 47.50 specifically to see if sellers jump in. We have popped thru 36.50 and are now below it again so eyes on that area at the open.



The weekly profile shows a double distribution with less trading between 31 and 56.50 - so as per yesterday - if we break up there is the possibility we make up a lot of ground quickly. That didn't occur yesterday, but it's still there potentially.



Yesterday was another decent range day, although it started slowly. We have a single print at 1925.75 and so far we are above that in the Globex session. We aren't really moving off key levels according to the way I look at things but we are putting in tradable runs with plenty of opportunity to get on board.

Today I'll be watching the single print at 25.75 as well as the VAH at 27.50. If buyers come in at those areas, then I expect us to get to yesterdays highs. Then of course watching those longer term support levels to see if they become resistance for a larger move down.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1910.25 -> 1979.50
Value - mostly irrelevant with such an elongated week
S1 1892.50, R1 1962

Daily Numbers
Range - 1914.75 -> 1937.50
Value - 1915 -> 1927.50
Globex - 1927.50 -> 1933.25

Settlement - 1932

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #350 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

6th August



Yesterday we were looking for a move to 36.50 or 47.50 and rejection off that. Expectation was that sellers would step in on a second rejection and we'd see downside below 1800.

We did not revisit 36.50. So the prior days push thru that level to 37.50 was basically the test. So yesterday was a bit of a tough call early on. We did have volume at 1928 from the globex profile and we reversed down from there but not really a major move. Basically, it's a reversal off a level that is more relevant to shorter term players whereas a revisit and failure at 36.50 or 47.50 would have brought in some longer term players.

So for the first 4 hours we just ranged 1920-1930. It was also think and whippy within that range. Ugly action.

Then the low of the day broke and THEN we saw some momentum. We got as low as 1907.50, not quite to our 1906.50 level.

So we may now be done to the downside and I'll be looking to test that low again and see if buyers come in. If we don't get a test or it's a test off a Globex level - same deal - a move - but no great participation.

Of course, I'm also looking to see what happens if 1906.50 breaks - the above chart is 4 hours today - the orange lines are some tentative levels - 1885.25 and 1891.25 - I'm having a hard time deciding which one of those could potentially be support - but I think we'll most likely see a reaction of 1891.15. Below that I'm looking for 1867.25.



Looking at the split profile, we can see the "L" period (each letter is 30 mins trading) - really took a dump when we broke the low of the day. The low was 1920 and we have a single print at 1919.75 - that's well worth watching today if we move up. Also, into the close we came back to test out 1917.25 level, so again keep an eye on that. If we move up and reverse down off one of those - we have a chance of decent downside participation.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1907.50-> 1937.50
Value - 1918 -> 1933.50
S1 1892.50, R1 1962

Daily Numbers

Range - 1907.50 -> 1930.50 (pit) / 1933.25 (globex)
Value - 1914.50 -> 1930.50
Globex - 1909.75 -> 1918.25

Settlement - 1913
Today - 1919.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1885.25- 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #351 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

7th April



We ended yesterday 7 ticks up on Tuesdays settlement. So really, a fairly neutral day.

Yesterday we dipped down through the 06.50 level for the second time (once in Globex, once in the pit session). We'd gone as low as 07.50 on Tuesday and so yesterday buyers jumped in on what was effectively the 3rd attempt at breaking through the level.

Going into today, we have to look for signs of whether this is the end of the downmove or if we are just shaking out some shorts before another push down.

Above 36.50, I'd say we should head up to 1890 again. If we roll below that then I think the next attempt at 06.50 should break and see us run down some more.



The weekly profile doesn't tell us much. It's pretty evenly distributed across the week. I would keep an eye on the weekly value area though. If it breaks above that and then holds in particular.



On the split globex/pit profile - we can see the Tuesday low just short of 06.50 and the globex session down through 1904. When the pit session opened we opened, Globex was short and that does often result in a push up but we got follow through to the low 20's. We also had a later low at 1912.75.

So today I'm watching to see if we get a reaction at 12.75 or yesterdays high/value high. If we do, I can see people coming in to fade that. If we hit the highs first, we could get enough momentum to get thhrough 06.50. If we descend without a test, it may bounce again. Still - I see the longs from these lows as having the highest capacity for puking out if they can't get any headway, so I think downside moves have much more potential than upside ones.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1903 -> 1937.50
Value - 1912.25 -> 1926.50
S1 1892.50, R1 1962

Daily Numbers
Range - 1903 (globex) / 1905.25 (pit) -> 1923.50
Value - 1913.75 -> 1921.25
Globex - 1913.50 -> 1921.75

Settlement - 1914.75
Today - 1912.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1885.25- 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 11 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #352 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

8th August



We finally had a proper breakdown through the 06.50 level and now we are down to our 'tentative' levels - 1891.25 and 1885.25. This is an area I am expecting a reaction but by my way of doing things we have 2 candidates for the level, so let's see if one "wins" by giving us at least a short term reaction.

So for today - looking for a reaction off that level. Once again, that could be the end of the down move or it could just be a pause before we push down some more. We can see the lower range to the left and there's no reason we can't get into there to work our way down to the mid 1800s.



Looking at the weekly profile, we can see we are now well below the upper distribution. That really starts at 1904, close to our 1906.50 level - so that's a level going into today. It would be good to touch the that was support and see it turn into resistance as more shorts should join us then.



Yesterday we didn't get up to the 36 area we were hoping for a reversal but we did tick through the globex high 3 ticks before rolling over. We didn't drop straight away but once we broke through the first hours low, traders had the confidence to short in anger. A failure above yesterdays high/globex high is pretty common in terms of having traders jump on board, it just seems most waited for the breakout. That's twice this week we've seen this. We have a single print at 1918 which is a level to watch for today if we manage to get back up there.

Yesterday we were also watching 12.75 - the swing low on Wednesday and Globex low. We didn't reverse off it but after going through, we did come back up and see sellers jump in to see the last push down - so I'm also watching for 12.75 today if we make it back up there.

We can see we made it 4 ticks through our top "tentative" line in the sand - but it's still early in the Globex session, it'll probably move down more before the pit open.

So as per yesterday

"today I'm watching to see if we get a reaction at 12.75 or yesterdays high/value high. If we do, I can see people coming in to fade that. If we hit the highs first, we could get enough momentum to get thhrough 06.50. If we descend without a test, it may bounce again. Still - I see the longs from these lows as having the highest capacity for puking out if they can't get any headway, so I think downside moves have much more potential than upside ones."

Longs will get nervous before shorts - so whilst I am looking at those downside as potential support, it's not going to take much for longs to bail out.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1980.25 -> 1937.50
Value - 1910-> 1929
S1 1892.50, R1 1962

Daily Numbers
Range - 1899.75 -> 1825.75
Value - 1903 -> 1916
Globex - 1890.25 -> 1906.75

Settlement - 1914.75
Today - 1918, 1912.75, 1904

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1885.25- 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #353 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

11th August



Friday we had a bounce off one of our "tentative" lines, so I'm adding that to the levels at the bottom (1891.25). Once again the question is "are we done to the downside and moving back up to 1990 or are we going to find resistance and test the low again?".

The next level to the upside is very close - 1936.50 and above that we have 1947.50. A bounce off either could bring in lots of sellers. To the downside we have 17.50 which hasn't been so significant of late.



Last weeks value high is 26.50, so that level is worth watching if we get rejection and it acts as support.



Looking at the split Globex/Pit profile, we can see that Fridays put session just took back Thursdays losses. We had a breakout at 15.25 and we had a late pullback to 20.75, to those are shorter term levels to watch for a reaction with a lower expectation of an extended move if they hold.

So far Globex is very long, so that could cause an initial move down off the open.

Also - be aware that it is usually dead this time of year, so don't be shocked if these moves start to die out.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1980.25 -> 1937.50
Value - 1907 -> 1926.50
S1 1896.25, R1 1944

Daily Numbers
Range - 1903.75 -> 1928.25
Value - 1904 -> 1921.50
Globex - 1923 -> 1933.25

Settlement - 1923.75
Today - 1915.25, 1920.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #354 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

13h August

Apologies for lack of prep yesterday - it was mothers day here in Thailand, so had to keep the wife pampered.



We are still hovering around the 36.50 level and still waiting to see if we will move up from here and get to 1990 or g back down and test the 1890 level again. I'm fairly neutral on which way it will go.



The range is fairly narrow this week. Not sure if that's the summer slowdown arriving or if it's just indecision at these levels. Volume is dropping off with 1.2 million traded Monday and Tuesday which would be high end for summer time chop - let's see if it drops over the next week or so.



Yesterday was interesting. A Range 1928.25-1936, then a drop, then a range 1923.50 -> 1931.75 - so in hindsight a faders day. Keep an eye on 1931.75 today - we settled close to there at 1930.50. So far the Globex range has been mostly above that, so it is potentially an area longs may lean on in the pit session, especially with the VAH being 1931.50.

Overall - still in "wait & see" mode. I'm neutral going in and waiting for signs we'll break up or down. I'll be more than happy to fade if the action is slow. Also more than happy to just sit on my hands today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923.25 -> 1941
Value - 1928.75 -> 1937.75
S1 1896.25, R1 1944

Daily Numbers
Range - 1923.50 -> 1936 (pit) / 1938.75 (globex)
Value - 1926 -> 1931.50
Globex - 1923 -> 1933.25

Settlement - 1930.50
Today - 1931.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #355 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

14th August



Volume down to 1.1 million yesterday. Whilst the break of 36.50 should mean we now work our way up to 1990 and beyond, I'm looking at this and the 47.50 level is the low of the July range. So whilst I tend to think we are done to the downside until we test the tops again, this level has been significant. So I'm biased long but cautious of a reversal at 47.50.

If we do move up, I expect to chop around as we get through 60 but we might not notice that as we do seem to be lightening up on volume.



A fairly evenly distributed profile this week. We are in the upper distribution. The lower distribution really fattens up around 1939, if we drop below that and trade some volume, I'd expect to see the value low - or 1927 hit.



The Wednesday pit session looks a bit like the Tuesday pit session turned on its head. We started off with a 1934-1939.75 range, then we broke out and ranged 1940.50-1945.25. So another day for the faders.

Look for more of the same today - and keep an eye on 1940.50 - the bottom of the latter range yesterday. We do have a chance of sellers stepping in if 47.50 holds, so we could have a good run down but be prepared for it to be slow again.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923.25 -> 1946.50
Value - 1927 -> 1939
S1 1896.25, R1 1944

Daily Numbers
Range - 1930.25 (globex) / 1934 (pit) -> 1945.25
Value - 1939.50 -> 1945.25
Globex - 1942 -> 1946.50

Settlement - 1944.75
Today - 1940.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 16 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #356 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

18th August



Looking at the 2 hour chart, it does look as if we want to move up to the high of the range for another test of 1890. As per last week - between 1960-1970, it's been pretty choppy previously, so it might take a while to chew through. Anything down from this 1960 has been a lot more fluid in terms of moves, so I'll be expecting more volatile down moves than up moves. Saying that, we are now hovering around the 59.50 level and that could mean we are building some stops above, so the longer we hover here, the more chance of a pop when it really breaks.



Last week was fairly evenly distributed across the range, I don't really see how the weekly profile or the value areas really help us going into this week.



Friday was interesting. We'd discussed going into summertime chop mode but of course we still have trouble in Ukraine. On Friday we started off in a tight range but got news that Ukraine had attacked Russia and down it went. Liquidity got pulled and we did see a lot of volume come in but we ended up with just 1.8 million contracts traded. After the news, liquidity was down to the mid 100's per level and it was very jumpy.

On the news - we came to within 3 ticks of the 36.50 level before recovering much of what was lost and settling back into a later day range. Going into today, it looks fairly slow in the Globex session (but it's only 2:30am EST as of writing).

We are now way above Fridays settlement 52.50 and we gapped up to open the Globex at 55.75. We have then worked up a further. This makes the Globex session 100% long so far and that increases the chance of an initial sell off. The afternoon high was 53.50 which makes the 52.50-53.50 area a good place for any downside "rebalancing" to stop and has a good chance of buyers jumping in if they see it move up from there.

We can also see that the Globex session has so far got support at the "breakdown point"/single print from Friday at 1956. So we may find support there into the pit session if it doesn't break before the open.

As we open, we have to watch the liquidity and volume, we could see some volume come in as a reaction to Friday and we could see tight rangey summertime action - so first order of the day is to evaluate that. For a slow market, I'll look more to the 1956 for support (presuming we open around 1959). If we see a little more volatility, I'll look for support at 53.50.

Upside, we have 1959.50 above us as potential resistance. If we can build decent volume below that, we might see some legs to a breakout as the stops go. If not and we creep up through it the open, then I expect chop and to just have small opportunities available.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923.25 -> 1961
Value - 1930.50 -> 1950.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968

Daily Numbers
Range - 1937.25 -> 1961
Value - 1942.25 -> 1952.25
Globex - 195.75 -> 1961.25

Settlement - 1952.50
Today - 1953.50, 1956

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #357 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

19th August

Volume was pitiful yesterday - 884k contracts traded overall. The range was actually not that bad. I'm expecting to see some really low range days develop - perhaps as low as 5 points in the pit session.



We are close to 1978.25 - a point at which we have rolled over a number of times longer term. Obviously we have low volume but we still have to consider a push up through the highs. Whether this brings us any participation remains to be seen. Big picture is basically whether we will bounce off 1980, headfake through the highs & reverse or actually move on to higher ground.

It's not unusual for a holiday time market (both summer & Christmas/New Year periods) put in a one way move on low volume and then get "corrected back to where it should be" when the volume comes back in.



Yesterday - we started off looking like a slow motion trend day - we build volume over 4-5 ticks, then moves up, then built volume over 3-4 ticks and so on. Not an easy one to get on in the move up as there was very little retrace. We moved up just over 7 points in the first 90 minutes and then went sideways in a 3 and a bit point range for the rest of the day. So today - we will initially look to see how we trade the extremes of that later range - 1965.75 -> 1968.25 (basically the value area) but mostly take cues off the intraday profile as it develops.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 1923.25 -> 1961
Value - 1930.50 -> 1950.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968

Daily Numbers
Range - 1955.75 (globex) / 1961.25 (pit) -> 1969
Value - 1967.50 -> 1968.25
Globex - 1967.50 -> 1973.75

Settlement - 1967.50

Long Term- 1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #358 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

20th August



Volume still very low, just 868k. We popped up yesterday through our 1978.25. We got 6 ticks through to 1979.75. We've stalled there for now and we may be done to the upside. So far it's been a grind up this week, so we have to keep an eye out for more of the same.

The next level above is 1985.75. So basically looking for confirmation that the range is now complete to the upside.



Yesterday we got a 9 point range and looking at the profile, we can see churn-move-churn-move. The globex session overnight is actually mostly below settlement - which is the first sign we have of the grind up potentially being over, So today I'm watching the value area from yesterday and the settlement to see if we get signs of resistance. We may actually see some (relative) decent movement if we clearly resist any additional up moves.

Obviously - it could go either way so a grind up is still possible.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1955.75 -> 1979.75
Value - 1963.50 -> 1979.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968

Daily Numbers
Range - 1967.50 (globex) / 1970.75 (pit) -> 1979.75
Value - 1975 -> 1979.50
Globex - 1973 -> 1977.75

Settlement - 1977.25

Long Term- 1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #359 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

21st August



The grind up continues. Yesterday we got a tick through our all time high of 1985.75 before pulling back a little. In the globex session we have reached 1987.75. So 2000 - is within reach.

After a run like this, it's worth considering that all of the people buying on the way up are now people who need to sell in order to profit. Sometimes you need a bit of that selling to occur before you can progress higher. Yesterday was relatively volatile but there's still no sign that we've had a decent amount of longs taking profit - leaving less future sellers on balance.

So I think this is still all about whether we can continue to make ground to the upside or if we'll roll over back to 1890. For more upside, I'd like to see us come down to a reference point - maybe 1978.25 and find support there. Or maybe another pop up and test 85.75 - then we could take higher confidence longs.



We can see the volatility going into and during the FOMC minutes yesterday. Today I expect it to be slow again barring any surprises from the employment numbers.

We do have a lot of "future sellers" in the market based on this move up, so if they do get spooked, we could see a good downside move.

What I think would be a mistake at this point, would be trying to pick the top of this move up from 1890. We have now popped the all time high, if buyers start to unwind now, it should be fairly obvious. It's hard for me to pinpoint a good line in the sand that would cause longs concern. We haven't broken a prior days low for a while, so perhaps the globex low and yesterdays low are the best candidates above the 78.25 level.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1955.75 -> 1979.75
Value - 1963.50 -> 1979.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968

Daily Numbers
Range - 1967.50 (globex) / 1970.75 (pit) -> 1979.75
Value - 1975 -> 1979.50
Globex - 1973 -> 1977.75

Settlement - 1983.25

Long Term- 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #360 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

22nd August



Still grinding up on low volume. 839k contracts yesterday. We are still not getting any retests or shaking any longs out.

At this point, we are very close to the 2000 level. I suspect lots of people are expecting us to get there and that of course, might be the very thing that prevents us reaching the level. If people are targeting 2000, then 'smarter' people will have exit orders in just before the level.

Normally on a level break, we'll be looking to see if it attracts additional buyers. I can't imagine why it would though.

Personally, I would feel a lot better about sustaining the highs if we could pull back to 1985.75 or 1978.25 before continuing.

Right now, any move that spooks buyers could 'snowball' into a big down move and whilst I'll trade to the long side, I really would like to see these longs run for the door because I think that's where the potential for volatility is.



I have my eyes on 1987.50 today as well as 1985.75 as potential retrace points. If 85.75 does break, then I'll be looking for more of a runner to the short side.

I certainly wont be going long at 1999....


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1955.75 -> 1992
Value - 1970 -> 1991.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968

Daily Numbers
Range - 19680.75 (globex) / 1983.50 (pit) -> 1992
Value - 1987.25-> 1990.75
Globex - 1989.25 -> 1991.50

Settlement - 1989.50

Today - 1987.50

Long Term- 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #361 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

25th August



Volume is still low. In the Globex session, we have come close to 2000. If 2000 is a target for a lot of people, then we will have a lot of people exiting there and it could mean we won't quite get to it or it'll fall back when we do get there.

The move up had no real pullback or point were we can say profit taking occurred. Obviously, if everyone takes profit at the same time, that could cause a snowball to the downside. Doesn't mean it will happen. Just means we should be aware that everyone that went long on the way up needs to sell in order to take profit and if too many people do that at the same time, it will cause a rapid move down.

To the upside, if we move down to 1978.25 and push up from there, then I think we could see buyers more confident. Any other upward move is lower confidence for me without a pullback.



Last weeks profile has a very flat top around 1991.75 - so look at 1991.50-1992 to be a line in the sand, if we start working our way into that, we have the potential to grind to 1982 - the bottom of the upper distribution from last week. Below that and I think we'll see some decent downside momentum.



The split globex/pit profile shows pretty much the same thing.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1955.75 -> 1992
Value - 1972.50 -> 1991.50
S1 1965, R1 2001.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1981.50 -> 1991.25
Value - 1985.50-> 1989.50
Globex - 1988.75 -> 1997.50

Settlement - 1987.75

Today - 1991.50-1992

Long Term- 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #362 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

Power went off doing my prep this AM because of a monsoon storm

Went down to check on the kids - the kids play room was flooding

Went onto the roof to see if I could clear the overflowing gutter - managed to put my hand through a roof tile and cut my hand and wrist.

Spent the next hour fighting water coming in through the window seals (in the dark) until finally giving in, moving the furniture out and leaving the water to find it's own way out.

Took the kids out to dinner (no electric), then got gridlocked for an hour on the way back 'cause the power lines/poles had been knocked into the road.

Anyway - I got back, cleared out most of the water as the rain has subsided, got a few buckets downstairs on some of the remaining leaks.

Thank heavens for beer...

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #363 (permalink)
 Camp 
Vienna Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader with Jigsaw
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 37 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 14 given, 21 received


DionysusToast View Post
Power went off doing my prep this AM because of a monsoon storm

Went down to check on the kids - the kids play room was flooding

Went onto the roof to see if I could clear the overflowing gutter - managed to put my hand through a roof tile and cut my hand and wrist.

Spent the next hour fighting water coming in through the window seals (in the dark) until finally giving in, moving the furniture out and leaving the water to find it's own way out.

Took the kids out to dinner (no electric), then got gridlocked for an hour on the way back 'cause the power lines/poles had been knocked into the road.

Anyway - I got back, cleared out most of the water as the rain has subsided, got a few buckets downstairs on some of the remaining leaks.

Thank heavens for beer...

Damn!

I only wish the best for you and your family.

Regards

"You adapt, evolve, compete or die" Paul Tudor Jones
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Camp for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #364 (permalink)
 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
 
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 79 given, 174 received

Hope everything gets better soon for you Pete!

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to isla for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #365 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

27th August



We broke 2000 yesterday and the reaction was - well not much. No signs of longs unwinding. Just more grind up on low volume. So the break didn't even bring people into the market either way.

So now we look for signs of support - a pullback to 85.75 would be good - the old high. That would shake out some longs and give us more confidence that the market has a "floor" somewhere.



In terms of lines in the sand - we also have 1997 from yesterday and 1992 from earlier in the week. 1992 could see some buyers unwind if it does break.

Not much more to add - it's very tight, low volume summertime action. We could get a sell off just because we have no place that we can see longs were shaken out, so you have to wonder how many more people are going to go long up here. When it goes, there's lots of longs to unwind.

Gameplan is to have that in mind all the time and look for strong order flow on any breaks to the downside. Otherwise it's just playing the chop.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1988.75 -> 2002.75
Value - 1993 -> 1999
S1 1965, R1 2001.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1992.25 (globex) / 1997 (pit) -> 2002.75
Value - 1997.25 > 2000.25
Globex - 1998 -> 2000.50

Settlement - 1998.50

Today - 1992, 1997

Long Term- 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #366 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

28th August


Just 771k contracts yesterday. We should have volume back on the 8th September. If we are lucky mid-next week as I believe labor day is Monday.



Yesterday was a little bearish but depta came off just 30k contracts high to low yesterday. On the one hand, that's good for right now but basically not really enough to be indicative of any serious unwinding. Range was just 6.5 points.



We can see this weeks profile with the step just above 1992 - so keep an eye on that. It is possible we get more momentum if it breaks. Upside looks like a grind till we get through 2000. Even if we get through that, we didn't see much upside momentum last time.




It did actually look like we were going to breakdown yesterday. We got through the bottom step in the profile from overnight shortly after opening - but no reaction. Then through the overnight low and it picked up a bit and we got through the 1997 level. There was no delta shift down accompanying the move and we couldn't get to the next line in the sand at 1992.

So today - expecting chop but with fingers tightly crossed that a break of 1992 actually has a few longs running (well slouching) for the doors.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1988.75 -> 2002.75
Value - 1994.50 -> 1999.50
S1 1965, R1 2001.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1993.25 -> 2000 (pit) / 200.50 (globex)
Value - 1995.25 > 1998.25
Globex - 1995.25 -> 1997.50

Settlement - 1997

Today - 1992

Long Term- 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #367 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

29th August



A bit more volume yesterday - just over a million. It did look like the sellers were going to take it yesterday, especially when we tested Wednesdays pit session low and sellers came in taking delta down 12k contracts. We also started off with liquidity really low - liquidity providers obviously somewhat nervous. When the market held, they came back in and it became a grind again.

Now we can see a small 4 day range up here, which is actually good for the upside from a "price acceptance" perspective. We've also come close to a test of the old high - 1985.75 - not very close, yesterdays low was 1987.50 but it did seem that buyers stepped in.

So for today, a conundrum. It is the last day of the month, so we could see a push up. It is also a holiday on Monday PLUS we are already in a period of low volume. We could see very low volume today because people will be making it a 4 day weekend. Certainly I would expect it to be dead in the PM. For me, I'll be on the lookout for it to pick up after the Consumer Sentiment & if it's not going by 10:15 - I'll leave it for the day.



We can see the 4 day range more clearly here. If we drop below say 1999, we can look for a churn to 1994 - not much to get excited about. Thin air above is obviously, so there is potential for interest up there but there was noet on the last poke above 2000, so unless the news is amazing this AM, it's hard to see why buyers will take it this time around.



So far we are 100% long overnight, so that does give the potential for a snap down off the open. We have another new all time high. We are way above the point at which longs will bail out - which I would say now is below 1993 (according to the weekly profile) and I imagine that as long as 85.75 holds, longs have no reason to worry.

So an initial rebalance of overnight positions to the downside might give us an initial trade short. Getting low enough to spook the longs is quite far considering the volatility, so we have to keep fingers crossed for the month end push up or it might be a really poor day.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1987.50 -> 2003.75
Value - 1993.50 -> 1999.50
S1 1965, R1 2001.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1987.50 (globex) -> 1988 (pit) / 1997.25
Value - 1992 > 1996.50
Globex - 1997 -> 2003.75

Settlement - 1996.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #368 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

2nd September



Two main themes for this week for me. First - has the volume returned yet? Labor day is behind us, we all want to see the volume return but it may be that everyone waits for everyone else for the first few days. So it might start out slow.

Second question once the volume does return. Does the market really like trading up at these levels we set in the summertime. So another test of the old highs would bode well for more upside. A move straight up is lower confidence for me simply because I believe a lot of people will feel better if we get a test plus it shakes out a few people.



Compared to last week, we are above value. So look also for a reaction around the value area. If we drop below 2000, then I expect us to see the low 90's.



We can see a push up in the Globex, so that makes us long into the open, which could give us a counter-reaction.

I'm keeping an open mind going into today. Sort of see how it plays in the first few days of traders returning to the market. Let the market get back into it's rhythm again.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1987.50 -> 2003.75
Value - 1993.50 -> 1999.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - not using this today - after the Sunday/Holiday Monday Trading
Value - not using this today - after the Sunday/Holiday Monday Trading
Globex - 1997.25 -> 2006.25

Settlement - not using this today - after the Sunday/Holiday Monday Trading

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #369 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

3rd September



We had a good pop up in the Globex session on the ES and Eurostoxx over on Eurex. As per yesterday


Quoting 
Two main themes for this week for me. First - has the volume returned yet? Labor day is behind us, we all want to see the volume return but it may be that everyone waits for everyone else for the first few days. So it might start out slow.

Second question once the volume does return. Does the market really like trading up at these levels we set in the summertime. So another test of the old highs would bode well for more upside. A move straight up is lower confidence for me simply because I believe a lot of people will feel better if we get a test plus it shakes out a few people.

So this still stands. Volume was low yesterday, so hopefully we'll see a little more today. If not, the whole week could be a low volume week.



As per yesterday


Quoting 
Compared to last week, we are above value. So look also for a reaction around the value area. If we drop below 2000, then I expect us to see the low 90's.

We did go through the weekly value high, worked our way down to the value low and just below it and then moved up from there. So that's a sort of downside test that coud help us to the upside. Still - that doesn't give me confidence yet that we can hold above 2000 when the volume returns.



A couple of interesting things here. We can see the 2 short horizontal lines. That's the first 2 hours trading where we sat in a range under 6 points. We then had a breakdown as the longs in that range stopped out. Then to the Globex session we had the big push up.

So today - we are going into the the day potentially with long overnight inventory, so again - look for a move down off the open. Then I'll be watching to see how we react around yesterdays high and yesterdays value high.

Still, with that said, it's all about the volume still. The lower the volatility, the more I lean to playing areas that develop intraday.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1987.50 -> 2003.75
Value - 1993.50 -> 1999.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1992.75 -> 2004.25 (pit) / 2006.25 (globex)
Value - 1996.26 ->2002.75
Globex - 1999.25 -> 2011

Settlement - 1999.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796
August 29th, 2014 05:40 PM

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #370 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

4th September



A little more volume coming in. We had 1.2 million traded yesterday, that's still on the low side but it's creeping up day by day. We are making higher highs but we don't seem to be getting anywhere. We have the potential for longs to be spooked by any move down, just based on the way the chart looks. So I'm a bit more prepared to "jump on" a down move than an up move.



On this weeks profile, we can see that we traded for more time and volume 1998-2001. Right now, it seems that the market likes trading at the lower end of this weeks range despite the probes up. That's not generally a good sign for the upside.



What was interesting yesterday was that we were "better behaved". We initially moved down to the prior days value high, then we moved up from there. We couldn't get back to the open and then we moved to the prior days value low. Over the past few months, we've not really had much action around these levels, so this is sign that the levels may become more relevant again.

We made it as high as 2003 in after hitting the value low. So that's a level to keep an eye on today.

So - I'm watching the usual suspect levels VAL, VAH and yesterdays range with an eye on longs unwinding. Ideal scenario would be a move up to 2003, then get short, take some off @ 1997.50 and then see the buyers take it lower. So looking for a good reaction off a level and then get positioned.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1992.75 -> 2011
Value - 1998 -> 2004.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1996.25 -> 2008.50 (pit) / 2011 (globex)
Value - 1997.50 ->2003
Globex - 1997 -> 2003.25

Settlement - 1998.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #371 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

4th September



A little more volume coming in. We had 1.2 million traded yesterday, that's still on the low side but it's creeping up day by day. We are making higher highs but we don't seem to be getting anywhere. We have the potential for longs to be spooked by any move down, just based on the way the chart looks. So I'm a bit more prepared to "jump on" a down move than an up move.



On this weeks profile, we can see that we traded for more time and volume 1998-2001. Right now, it seems that the market likes trading at the lower end of this weeks range despite the probes up. That's not generally a good sign for the upside.



What was interesting yesterday was that we were "better behaved". We initially moved down to the prior days value high, then we moved up from there. We couldn't get back to the open and then we moved to the prior days value low. Over the past few months, we've not really had much action around these levels, so this is sign that the levels may become more relevant again.

We made it as high as 2003 in after hitting the value low. So that's a level to keep an eye on today.

So - I'm watching the usual suspect levels VAL, VAH and yesterdays range with an eye on longs unwinding. Ideal scenario would be a move up to 2003, then get short, take some off @ 1997.50 and then see the buyers take it lower. So looking for a good reaction off a level and then get positioned.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1992.75 -> 2011
Value - 1998 -> 2004.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1996.25 -> 2008.50 (pit) / 2011 (globex)
Value - 1997.50 ->2003
Globex - 1997 -> 2003.25

Settlement - 1998.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #372 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

4th September



A little more volume coming in. We had 1.2 million traded yesterday, that's still on the low side but it's creeping up day by day. We are making higher highs but we don't seem to be getting anywhere. We have the potential for longs to be spooked by any move down, just based on the way the chart looks. So I'm a bit more prepared to "jump on" a down move than an up move.



On this weeks profile, we can see that we traded for more time and volume 1998-2001. Right now, it seems that the market likes trading at the lower end of this weeks range despite the probes up. That's not generally a good sign for the upside.



What was interesting yesterday was that we were "better behaved". We initially moved down to the prior days value high, then we moved up from there. We couldn't get back to the open and then we moved to the prior days value low. Over the past few months, we've not really had much action around these levels, so this is sign that the levels may become more relevant again.

We made it as high as 2003 in after hitting the value low. So that's a level to keep an eye on today.

So - I'm watching the usual suspect levels VAL, VAH and yesterdays range with an eye on longs unwinding. Ideal scenario would be a move up to 2003, then get short, take some off @ 1997.50 and then see the buyers take it lower. So looking for a good reaction off a level and then get positioned.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1992.75 -> 2011
Value - 1998 -> 2004.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1996.25 -> 2008.50 (pit) / 2011 (globex)
Value - 1997.50 ->2003
Globex - 1997 -> 2003.25

Settlement - 1998.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #373 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

5th September



Once again volume improved yesterday and once again we had a probe up but couldn't hold it. Yesterday we put in a lower low, so longs will be sweating. I still think the downside has much more potential for an extended move than the upside.



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
On this weeks profile, we can see that we traded for more time and volume 1998-2001. Right now, it seems that the market likes trading at the lower end of this weeks range despite the probes up. That's not generally a good sign for the upside.

We are now below that bulge in the profile, so today watch out for 1998 as we may see a rejection of weekly value there. 1998 is also a tick below yesterdays value low.



Yesterday we had;


Quoting 
So - I'm watching the usual suspect levels VAL, VAH and yesterdays range with an eye on longs unwinding. Ideal scenario would be a move up to 2003, then get short, take some off @ 1997.50 and then see the buyers take it lower. So looking for a good reaction off a level and then get positioned.

We didn't see a reaction off 2003 - but we did move up through the prior days pit session high but couldn't get to the globex high. Again, in "better behaved" markets, we often see sellers jump in on such a failure and we got a good sell off yesterdat.

So again - looking at the usual suspect levels - yesterdays range & value area to look for rejection to the downside. I'm hoping for shorts but not going in with a "short only" mentality. I just think there's good potential for unwinding long positions on any failed moves up.

There is of course, also the chance that we drop from the open, so one option on the table if it seems to be falling rapidly is short a small position and then scale in IF it moves lower. When it sells off, it's not always possible to get a nice entry.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 199.75 -> 2011
Value - 1998 -> 2006
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1990.75 -> 2010
Value - 1998.25 ->2010
Globex - 1992.25 -> 2000.50

Settlement - 1997.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #374 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

8th September



Volume is back to normal now with a healthy (almost) 1.7 million contracts traded on Friday. We are still in a range. On Wednesday we had a push up in Globex and a sell off in the pit session. On Thursday we had a push up in the pit session and a sell off in the same. Friday we reversed the pattern and sold down before seeing buyers step in.

We've not gotten close to the old high of 1986.25, we seem to have a "base" of around 1988. This is rangebound behaviour and we can see the range above in the white square. We've had a few days of decent volume and so far the market seems to like trading up here. This may well be the base for a move higher.

Still - the best potential is to the short side, if we can work our way down past 86.25, we have the potential for longs getting out of the way. The upside now also has the potential for a pop as we have built positions in last weeks range and there will be stops either side. We have 20 points between the extremes, so my plan is to not fade the extremes but to expect it to get to the other side if the extremes hold. So basically, let other traders fight it out at the range extremes and participate on a lower-reward/lower risk move once the break/hold is confirmed.



We can see that last weeks range was very normally distributed and so we'll look at the value area for a hold as well as the extremes. We should expect it to be a little choppy around the middle of that range & the POC at 2000.



We can see Thursday and Friday here, how they basically did the opposite. Early in today, I'm looking to see what happens on a push down to 2000 as well as what occurs if we hit Fridays high. Other than that, it's playing intraday levels until we get to weekly range/value extremes.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1988.25 -> 2011
Value - 1996.50 -> 2006.50
S1 1992.50 R1 2015.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1988.25-> 2006.50
Value - 1994 ->2006.50
Globex - 2001.75 -> 2006.75

Settlement - 2006

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #375 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

9th September

Note that the markets rollover this week - which can cause some odd action as people move to the new month. The rollover is officially Thursday but can really kick in any time before or after Thursday. It's worth monitoring the volume of September and December contracts from this point forward.



Yesterday we didn't really do much. Volume was a little low - and it was evident right from the open, it was summertime slow again but it did pick up later on. The first 30 minutes was pretty painful. The bigger picture remains unchanged - we are still in the range - so the comments from yesterdays prep still apply.



We can see last weeks action on the left and this weeks on the right. Yesterday we said


Quoting 
We can see that last weeks range was very normally distributed and so we'll look at the value area for a hold as well as the extremes. We should expect it to be a little choppy around the middle of that range & the POC at 2000.

We've basically tested last weeks value area at both extremes and are now back in it.



We can see that Fridays value are held yesterday. So the plan for today is the same as yesterday....


Quoting 
Early in today, I'm looking to see what happens on a push down to 2000 as well as what occurs if we hit Fridays high. Other than that, it's playing intraday levels until we get to weekly range/value extremes.

Obviously when plotting yesterdays levels, not that the range was much tighter yesterday so I would not expect both sides of yesterdays value area to hold.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1988.25 -> 2011
Value - 1996.50 -> 2006.50
S1 1992.50 R1 2015.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1994 -> 2006.25 (pit) / 2006.75 (globex)
Value - 1998.75 ->2006.75
Globex - 1996.25 -> 2002

Settlement - 2000.50

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #376 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

10th September



Yesterday started out pretty useless. Directionless trade and tough to get a price to lean on unless you were lucky to get in early. Then (after my bedtime), we took a pop through the high and sellers took it down to the close.

So now we are at the bottom of our range. Today is all about whether it holds or not. We have the old high at 1985.75, we probed through that yesterday but are now back above it. If it breaks down, we should see some sell stops and they could be significant. Significant enough not to need to short immediately. If it does break aggressively, don't expect much of a pullbacl.

If 1985.75 holds and we move back towards the top of the range, I expect that to give us less opportunity and slower action.



The weekly profile doesn't really give us much. There's really no significant distribution area.



We can see the drop here. We can also see how the 1985.75 area has been significant in the Globex session. Ideally we'd move up in the pit session and test a value/range extreme from yesterday and move down giving us a chance to be short into the low.

For the long side, I'd be wary of any moves off yesterdays low as sellers may be inclined to push it down aggressively.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1983.25 -> 2006.75
Value - 1992.25 -> 2005.25
S1 1992.50 R1 2015.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1983.25 -> 1999.50 (pit) / 2003 (globex)
Value - 1999.75 -> 1996.25
Globex - 1985.50-> 1992.25

Settlement - 1989.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 11 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #377 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

11th September

Rollover Day. So today I'm keeping an eye on the volumes. I usually do a section on the topstep squawk on Tuesdays & Thursdays and the only reason I'm trading today is because of that. Most of the time this is a day off for me.

Still - the plan is to have an eye on the volume in the September and December contracts. Once December volume exceeds September volume, I'll move to December.



Yesterday we broke through the 1985.75 level but there really wasn't any "run for the doors" so right now I'm treating that as a range extension down. It may be that 1978.25 will be the more significant test as we did hit that a number of times before the probe up to 85.75. Either way, it should be VERY clear if longs get stopped out.



As we can see, we probed down 7 ticks and then buyers came in and took it up for most of the day. We got an early sell off in the Globex session. Interestingly where the bulk of action in yesterdays globex was just above 85.75, todays so far we are just below 85.75.

Into the open, I'm looking for action around 85.75 whichever side we open. If we open below and it holds, I do expect sellers to try to kick it down below yesterdays low and to 78.25.

It's an inflection point and so I'd normally expect this to be a very interesting day as one side will need to fold. Trouble is the rollover. People will be closing out positions in September and opening them in December. If you put emphasis on order flow, then obviously a lot of the orders today will be non-directional. September contract will have a lot of orders to close positions - so they can consume liquidity but are basically neutral. December will have a lot of opening positions but not really by shorter term traders who are nudging it about - it'll be a lot of longer term guys positioning - so from an intraday perspective, they don't give a hoot. So Order Flow analysis is problematic on days like this.

Saying that, sometimes we don't roll till the Friday. Life is like a box of chocolates as Forrst Gump says - anything can happen.... even a sell off.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1980 -> 2006.75
Value - 1994.25 -> 2000.25
S1 1992.50 R1 2015.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1983.25 -> 1999.50 (pit) / 2003 (globex)
Value - 1999.75 -> 1996.50
Globex - 1980.00 -> 1995.75

Settlement - 1995

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #378 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

Just noticed my charts are showing Sept Contract for yesterday but December for today.

So right now we seem to be holding the old high with an overnight low of 85.75 - there was no sell off overnight.

My apologies for the confusion!

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #379 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

New levels starting tomorrow: Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

Note - this is just a placeholder for my own use...

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #380 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

15th September



Chart has been adjusted for the older new contract. We have 2 lines quite close to each other.

1970.25 - an old high that was tested a number of times
1977.75 - the next high which just got hit once

We broke down through the 77.75 line with very little reaction. No sign of long stopping out. We took a dip through the 70.25 level in todays Globex session and are now between those 2 levels. At this point, we have to consider the market might happily carry on down without any reaction at going back into the old range. For the downside, I'm watching to see what happens if the 70.25 line breaks in the pit session and if longs unwind rapidly. If not, we could still have downside and I'd expect it to be a grind possibly down to 1934.50 if we are headed that way. Obviously, if we get a test of 70.25 or 77.75 from below, that will give more confidence to the downside today.

To the upside - that would be a value play and see us back to the top of the white box and a test of the highs.

So basically looking to revert to the range of the past few weeks or start moving down, still with the potential for longs running for the doors.



We have opened the week below last weeks value and have already broken last weeks low. On the open, we'll see how the US traders like these prices. It is always decent probability of at least an initial reaction upwards after a move down in Globex IF we are still below Fridays settlement at the open. That move might just be enough to see us move up and test a key level before moving down.



We can see the 77.75 level was resistance late on Friday and was tested from below 3 times. Settlement was 76.75 and now we are at 71.75 as of writing. I'm watching for those levels as well as the value area for a test. It does look like a snap up off the open OR a short off an upside test would be the easiest, most obvious trades that lots of people would join in on. For a long to get to yesterdays high or value high, I think you just have to play off levels that develop intraday as that's not so obvious (although equally as likely).

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1971.25 -> 1998.75
Value - 1978.50-> 1991.50
S1 1966 R1 1992.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1971.25 -> 1987.50 / 1991.50
Value - 1975.50 -> 1985
Globex - 1968 -> 1975.25

Settlement - 1976.75

Long Term - 2003, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #381 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
Legendary Market Wizard
New Orleans, La (Mardi Gras City)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Ninjatrader / Optimus Futures / AmpFutures
Trading: ES / 6E / 6B / CL
 
DavidHP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,379 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 10,173 given, 2,428 received

FWIW

Last image is missing on my screen
Not sure if it is me or everyone.

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to DavidHP for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #382 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received


DavidHP View Post
FWIW

Last image is missing on my screen
Not sure if it is me or everyone.

Fixed David - thanks for the heads-up!

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #383 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 825 given, 10,325 received

16 September



Yesterday we talked about the 2 significant prices:


Quoting 
Chart has been adjusted for the older new contract. We have 2 lines quite close to each other.

1970.25 - an old high that was tested a number of times
1977.75 - the next high which just got hit once

We broke down through the 77.75 line with very little reaction. No sign of long stopping out. We took a dip through the 70.25 level in todays Globex session and are now between those 2 levels. At this point, we have to consider the market might happily carry on down without any reaction at going back into the old range. For the downside, I'm watching to see what happens if the 70.25 line breaks in the pit session and if longs unwind rapidly. If not, we could still have downside and I'd expect it to be a grind possibly down to 1934.50 if we are headed that way. Obviously, if we get a test of 70.25 or 77.75 from below, that will give more confidence to the downside today.

To the upside - that would be a value play and see us back to the top of the white box and a test of the highs.

So basically looking to revert to the range of the past few weeks or start moving down, still with the potential for longs running for the doors.

Yesterday we basically traded between those 2 prices, so same thing applies today - just with a little more "energy" built up between the prices that will be released on a break.



From a weekly perspective we can also see that we could not make meaningful headway into yesterdays value area. That should help bring sellers in if we get another test of yesterdays high and it holds.



As we go into today, if the range hasn't broken by the open (which could easily happen as we have inflation numbers @ 8:30), I'll be looking to see if either end of value holds from yesterday - 1972 & 1976.50. If that happens, I'll look to try to get on to play to the range extreme in the direction of the bounce off the level. If not, then watching around yesterdays range for a reaction. So from where we are, if 1972 holds, I'll try to go long and scale some before 1978.

If we start today outside of yesterdays range, I'll look for it to be tested after the pit open. A test and traders stepping in would give me confidence in a decent move.

The downside today is that I don't usually like to play levels. I like to wait for a move off a level and then get in on a retracement. That might be difficult to get if it bounces off an extreme and the other side steps in because yesterdays range is so small, it might just bounce and go through in one leg.

As per last week, I still feel the downside has a lot more potential for stops, so any downside move may be one you just have to jump on - the above is really about trying to get a lower risk entry.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1971.25 -> 1998.75
Value - 1978.50-> 1991.50
S1 1966 R1 1992.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1968 (globex)-> 1969.50 / 1979
Value - 1972 -> 1976.50
Globex - 1972.50 -> 1977

Settlement - 1976

Long Term - 2003, 1985.75,1977.75, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #384 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,982 since No