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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,665 / 918
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old June 24th, 2013, 09:20 AM   #31 (permalink)
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June 24th

Here's a monthly chart:
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We did break down below last months low, so we are no longer one timeframing up on a monthly basis. In terms of the drop we have had so far, it's not particularly big when you look at the bigger picture.

We have been in vertical development downwards and at some point we will settle into a range. Where that will be is anyone's guess. It might even be back into the mid May-mid June range.

I can't see a good reason to try to pick the bottom of this move. Many common levels have held intraday on the first hit but just for a 2-3 point bounce before moving down. Many of them have then acted as resistance.

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We can see that the Globex session has already pierced through last weeks low. If we look at Fridays day session and todays Globex, we can see that we did take a peek into Fridays value area before getting rejected:

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Being mostly short overnight often sees buyers step in off the open. I don't hold much hope of that. I'll be watching Fridays Value area, Fridays low for rejection and if it doesn't get rejected, I'll get into position with a view to catching the opposite end of the range. I'll also be looking at 1576.25 above for rejection as well as 1558.75 below.

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Let's face it, most people are probably thinking of shorting it and they are probably right but at the end of the day all short term shorts need to cover at some point. I'm going to let my bias develop as it plays out.

Weekly Levels
Range 1570.50 -> 1649
Value 1596.25 -> 1648.75
R1 - 1631.75, S1 1553.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1570.50 -> 1594.25 (pit)/1597.25 (globex)
Value 1578.75 -> 1590.75
Globex 1565 (so far) -> 1596.25
Other 1576.25, 1558.75, 1528.75

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Old June 25th, 2013, 09:40 AM   #32 (permalink)
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25th July

Sometimes it's annoying just trading the US Morning Session. Waking up to see a 27 point move up for most of the afternoon is one of the annoyances.

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The morning was characterized by the market swinging back and forth taking out stops. Liquidity was pretty low. The move in the afternoon was very well behaved on the way up and fairly well behaved on the way down as it gave back some of the move up. The AM was a good example of action I find hard to hold onto a position for more than 1-2 targets (with the redeeming factor being the reversal off the overnight low) and the PM was a good example of action that to me is much easier to run. It's good to see that sort of 'decisive' action.

We poked through the 1559 level yesterday and finally had buyers come in. It's the end of the month this week too but I'm not sure if that's going to really help to the upside considering the size of the move down this month. Anyway we did start the month at 1629.50, so it's worth bearing that in mind if we move up.

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Whilst we did push up, we did not get to Fridays high and we only just about poked into Fridays Value area, the low of which was 1578.75. I think we need a good push through there towards Fridays VAH of 1590.75 before we can say the bulls have control. The Globex session today has stayed above Mondays lows, pushed above Mondays VAH but as yet hasn't managed to get through Mondays high. So whilst the daily chart does look a bit bullish, I still don't buy into it.

On the hourly, we have potential resistance at 1580.25 which I'll be watching if we get a push up off the open.

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The levels we made on the way up and then the way down will need to be moved based on the recent action. I want to wait a few more days before doing that to see how this move plays out.

Weekly Levels
Range 1570.50 -> 1649
Value 1596.25 -> 1648.75
R1 - 1631.75, S1 1553.50

Daily Levels
Range 1553.25 -> 1580.25 (pit)/1586.25 (Globex)
Value 1556 -> 1571.50
Globex 1558.25 -> 1578.75 (so far)
Other 1629.50 1590.75, 1580.25, 1558.75, 1528.75

News at 10am will probably be the clincher in terms of facilitating a move up. Certainly pays to have a lot of wiggle room in a trade if you are holding through 10am.

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Old June 26th, 2013, 09:45 AM   #33 (permalink)
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26th June

We just about made a higher high yesterday and in the Globex today we have also pushed through yesterdays high. First order of the day will be to see if the pit session will hold that or fall back into yesterdays range/value.

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We have an area around 1597.25 that we need to break through to the upside and then next resistance around 1617.25. Note that 1596.25 is last weeks VAL, so pushing back into that is good for the bills.

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To keep this going up, holding a few key levels will help. Last months low of 1576 and last weeks low of 1570.50.

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The Globex session has most of the volume at the lows and the value area high is about where yesterdays day session VAH was. So I'll be looking for bounces up off yesterdays pit high and yesterays VAH. To the upside, I'll be looking at a potential move down from 1596.25-1597.25. If either fail I'll try to go with the move.

Weekly Levels
Last weeks VAL - 1596.25
Range 1553.25 -> 1591.75
Value 1566.75 -> 1581.25
R1 - 1631.75, S1 1553.50

Daily Levels
Range 1558.25 (globex)/ 1570 (pit) -> 1587/85
Value 1576 ->1582.50
Other- 1596.24->1597.25, 1576, 1570.50, 1617.25

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Old June 27th, 2013, 10:01 AM   #34 (permalink)
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27th June

Yesterday was interesting and it's worth looking at what happened and think about what people might be thinking today.

The plan for yesterday was " looking for bounces up off yesterdays pit high and yesterdays VAH. To the upside, I'll be looking at a potential move down from 1596.25-1597.25."

Off the open we pushed up through last weeks Val at 1596.25 and through our 'potential break out point' from yesterday at 1597.25. We got 2 ticks through that level to 1596.75, bounced down and came back up to 1596.25. That failure to breach the level saw us go down to test the prior days pit high of 1587.75 and we got as far as 1588.50.

Then we moved up and managed to go onto new highs to 1601.25 and in todays Globex we are at 1606.25.

Today we are already in last weeks value area and for continuation up, I'd look for it to do something similar to yesterday which is test yesterdays high (1601.25)/value high (1598.25) and see if buyers step in. It could also test last weeks VAL of 1596.25. It's all around the same area.

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Volume is a little lower on the past 2 up days but I am sure if we pass a test to the downside that buyers will be confident. I just wont be an early one.

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We didn't really mark out any levels on the way down but we did have a wiggle at 1617.25 which we were looking at, so that is a hurdle we need to get over.

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Todays Globex looks a lot like yesterdays. Value overlapping the prior pit session with an extension later on. Whether today's pit session follows remains to be seen.

Weekly Levels
Last weeks VAL - 1596.25
Range 1553.25 -> 1591.75
Value 1560.50 -> 1585.25
R1 - 1631.75, S1 1553.50

Daily Levels
Range 1573 (globex)/1588.50 (pit) -> 1601.25
Value - 1588.50 -> 1598.25
Settlement 1595.50
Globex (so far) 1594.75 -> 1606.50

Don't forget the news @ 10am!

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 27th, 2013 at 10:13 AM.
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Old June 28th, 2013, 07:49 AM   #35 (permalink)
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28th June

Last day of the month and last day of the quarter. April opened at 1563, and we are well above that. June opened at 1629 and that could well be a target today.

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Overnight we made it a tick through Thursdays high. Right now it is only 6:45am EST, so that could change and we could spike up before the open to repeat what has occurred in Globex the past 2 days. Right mow, this is where we stand.

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So we have a slightly higher value area and almost the same range as the pit session. We have PMI at 9:45am and Consumer Sentiment, Inflation at 10:00am. Probably not a big deal but not worth being in a trade without some breathing room into either.

If we stay within the range to 9:30, then see if they hold. If not, see if they get rejected. 1629 is a legitimate target but we need to get through 1617.25 first. To the downside is yesterdays low and VAL, then then 1601.50 and then the 1595.25 area. I suspect it'll be a push up today because of the month/quarter end though.

Weekly Levels
Last weeks VAL - 1596.25
Range 1553.25 -> 1614.50
Value 1556.75 -> 1594.75
R1 - 1631.75, S1 1553.50

Daily Levels
Range 1594.75(globex)/1605.25 (pit) -> 1614.25
Value - 1606.75 -> 1610..75
Settlement 1606.50
Globex (so far) 1605.50 -> 1614.50
Other 1629, 1617.25, 1601.50, 1595.25

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Old July 1st, 2013, 09:21 AM   #36 (permalink)
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1st July

Well - so much for window dressing on the last day of the quarter!

I guess it could well be a slow week with July 4th coming on Thursday. We did poke through the 1595.50 level by a point and now it's a bit of a coin toss in terms of where it goes from here. We've got good arguments for it settling into a range 1595-> 1648.25 OR 1552.50 -> 1617.25.

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Before we get to 1617.75, there is a shorter term resistance level at 1614.50 and it would be good to see a test and break through that early on.

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In terms of last week, value is below us right now (1556.75->1598.25), so if we rush back int that area, we could walk down to the opposite side as the week progresses.

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The Globex range is approximately where Fridays pit session was, so the first thing we need to do today is get out of that. A failure to get through either side is a good trade with plenty of potential to get to the opposite side.

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Weekly Levels
Range 1552.25-> 1614.50
Value 1556.75->1598.25
S1 - 1563.50, PP - 1589.00, R1 - 1624.75

Daily Levels
Range 1594.25 -> 1609.75(pit) /1614.50 (Globex)
Globex - 1593.25 -> 1610 (as at 8:15am)
Close - 1599.25
Other - 1617.25, 1595.25, 1601.75

We are set to open up 10 points from the close but still within Fridays range so I think it's a coin toss. The news at 10am might cause a break either way. From the open, see how we react around Fridays range/value.

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Old July 2nd, 2013, 10:08 AM   #37 (permalink)
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2nd July

Not much change from yesterday morning, we did poke up above that 14.50 level but we fell back through it and we only managed to get up as high as 1614.25 in the Globex session.

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We are between those 2 blue lines right now that have proven significant and I think a break either way (unless it's a 4 tick peek) will provide good opportunity.

Value is lower in the Globex and as of typing we are at 1606, yesterdays low. I'll be looking to see if we can move up through yesterdays range off the open or move back down to the 1594 level if we don't. If we do move up into the range, I'd be looking at 1617.50 or 1620 as the place where short term longs will have as a target,

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We do have factory orders at 10am but it will probably be a fairly quiet day. Volume was a little over 1.5M yesterday which is quite light and the volume so fare is about 70k below average in the globex session. I will be keeping my eye on the volume profile from the start too. If it builds out a nice 'D' shape off the open, then I'll scalp the range.

Weekly Levels
Range 1552.25-> 1614.50
Value 1556.75->1598.25
S1 - 1563.50, PP - 1589.00, R1 - 1624.75

Daily Levels
Range 1593.25 (gobex)/1606 (Pit) -> 1620.50
Value 1611.50 -> 1619.50
Other - 1617.25, 1595.25, 1601.75

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Old July 8th, 2013, 09:29 AM   #38 (permalink)
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8th July

Back after the holidays! Let's hope everyone else is too...

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We have broken out to the upside of our 1617.75 level and we are heading up to the 1649 level which is prior resistance and also the high of June.

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What now remains to be seen is whether we continue the range and head back down to the 1595 area or make another move to the highs.

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Last week was a holiday week and we opened up today above last weeks value. A test of that area may be on the card and a rejection to the upside would be very bullish.

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We bounced off Fridays value area overnight, so the downside test may have already occurred.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1593.25 -> 1630.75
Value 1602 -> 1621.50
R1 - 1638, S1 1606.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1608.25 -> 1629.50 (pit)/1630.75(globex)
Value 1614.75 -> 1626.25
Globex 1626 -> 1638
Other - 1595.25, 1608.25, 1617.75, 1649

Nothing else to add other than I see this as a 'technical day' and I expect 1649 to be a target for a lot of people and for at least a minor pullback to occur there when they close out longs.

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Old July 9th, 2013, 09:31 AM   #39 (permalink)
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9th July

This is a new one on me - 10am - JOLTS Job Openings. I have no idea what that is so I guess stay flat into it if there's no wiggle room in the trade.

We have made it 4 points below our 1649 level, that's a line in the sand in terms of whether we continue to move sideways (1595-1649) or take another run for the highs.

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I expect a small bounce off 1649 whatever happens. If we do turn down there, then I think we have a good 50 points to go to the downside over the next week or so.

The move up has been decent. Yesterdays pit session was a bit of a wash really, we poked above the Globex high but not much else. The Globex seems to be making the moves. Today we have a push up in the Globex again. What I'd like to see is a small move down off the open and for buyers to step in and take us to 1649.

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There's a big step in the profile @ around 1639 and yesterdays high is 1639.50, so that seems like a natural point to move down to before moving up.

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There's not really much more to say. What I don't want to see off the open is poor volume and a small range like yesterday but that is certainly a possibility given yesterday.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1593.25 -> 1630.75
Value 1602 -> 1621.50
R1 - 1638, S1 1606.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1626 (globex)/1631.25 (pit) -> 1639.50
Value 1632 -> 1636
Globex 1635.75 -> 1645
Close 1635.50
Other - 1595.25, 1608.25, 1617.75, 1649

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Old July 11th, 2013, 10:06 AM   #40 (permalink)
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11th July

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We did get a bounce off the 1649 area as expected and then (somewhat thanks to Helicopter Ben), we broke through and are now headed for the high. It seems that stimulus will continue which is a bit of a u turn and a bullish change. Of course, as the market headed down to 1550 mid-June, the sky was falling in. Next hurdle is 1685.75, the 'adjusted' all time high...

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There is a level at 1673 but the weekly value is way below and we don't have too many levels to play off.

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Yesterdays value is way below us, as is the weeks developing value area. The market is very long overnight and that often causes an adjustment down off the open. As this is a more 'fundamental' move, that might drive the market, so I will be looking for above average volume at the open, if combined with a good push up, I'll be considering the merits of just jumping on board long and not waiting for a perfect entry price.

Saying that - we have seen a lot of times recently that the Globex traders have all the fun and if the depth is thick, volume is average or below, we could just sit in a range. Whilst that is a pain as an intraday trader, it is price acceptance and that does bode well for a continued push up. If it does happen, then you can not trade or you can fade the range and try not to get shaken out with the probes outside the range. Certainly, if we do see sluggish rangebound action, I wont play breakouts.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1627 -> 1667.50
Value 1631.75 -> 1649.25

Daily Numbers
Range 1641.50 -> 1653
Value 1643 -> 1647.50
Globex 1648.25 -> 1667.25
Other 1653.25, 1660.25, 1673, 1685.75,

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