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DTs Pre Market Prep
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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #371 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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4th September

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A little more volume coming in. We had 1.2 million traded yesterday, that's still on the low side but it's creeping up day by day. We are making higher highs but we don't seem to be getting anywhere. We have the potential for longs to be spooked by any move down, just based on the way the chart looks. So I'm a bit more prepared to "jump on" a down move than an up move.

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On this weeks profile, we can see that we traded for more time and volume 1998-2001. Right now, it seems that the market likes trading at the lower end of this weeks range despite the probes up. That's not generally a good sign for the upside.

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What was interesting yesterday was that we were "better behaved". We initially moved down to the prior days value high, then we moved up from there. We couldn't get back to the open and then we moved to the prior days value low. Over the past few months, we've not really had much action around these levels, so this is sign that the levels may become more relevant again.

We made it as high as 2003 in after hitting the value low. So that's a level to keep an eye on today.

So - I'm watching the usual suspect levels VAL, VAH and yesterdays range with an eye on longs unwinding. Ideal scenario would be a move up to 2003, then get short, take some off @ 1997.50 and then see the buyers take it lower. So looking for a good reaction off a level and then get positioned.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1992.75 -> 2011
Value - 1998 -> 2004.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1996.25 -> 2008.50 (pit) / 2011 (globex)
Value - 1997.50 ->2003
Globex - 1997 -> 2003.25

Settlement - 1998.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #372 (permalink)
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4th September

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A little more volume coming in. We had 1.2 million traded yesterday, that's still on the low side but it's creeping up day by day. We are making higher highs but we don't seem to be getting anywhere. We have the potential for longs to be spooked by any move down, just based on the way the chart looks. So I'm a bit more prepared to "jump on" a down move than an up move.

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On this weeks profile, we can see that we traded for more time and volume 1998-2001. Right now, it seems that the market likes trading at the lower end of this weeks range despite the probes up. That's not generally a good sign for the upside.

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What was interesting yesterday was that we were "better behaved". We initially moved down to the prior days value high, then we moved up from there. We couldn't get back to the open and then we moved to the prior days value low. Over the past few months, we've not really had much action around these levels, so this is sign that the levels may become more relevant again.

We made it as high as 2003 in after hitting the value low. So that's a level to keep an eye on today.

So - I'm watching the usual suspect levels VAL, VAH and yesterdays range with an eye on longs unwinding. Ideal scenario would be a move up to 2003, then get short, take some off @ 1997.50 and then see the buyers take it lower. So looking for a good reaction off a level and then get positioned.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1992.75 -> 2011
Value - 1998 -> 2004.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1996.25 -> 2008.50 (pit) / 2011 (globex)
Value - 1997.50 ->2003
Globex - 1997 -> 2003.25

Settlement - 1998.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #373 (permalink)
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5th September

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Once again volume improved yesterday and once again we had a probe up but couldn't hold it. Yesterday we put in a lower low, so longs will be sweating. I still think the downside has much more potential for an extended move than the upside.

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Yesterday we had


Quoting 
On this weeks profile, we can see that we traded for more time and volume 1998-2001. Right now, it seems that the market likes trading at the lower end of this weeks range despite the probes up. That's not generally a good sign for the upside.

We are now below that bulge in the profile, so today watch out for 1998 as we may see a rejection of weekly value there. 1998 is also a tick below yesterdays value low.

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Yesterday we had;


Quoting 
So - I'm watching the usual suspect levels VAL, VAH and yesterdays range with an eye on longs unwinding. Ideal scenario would be a move up to 2003, then get short, take some off @ 1997.50 and then see the buyers take it lower. So looking for a good reaction off a level and then get positioned.

We didn't see a reaction off 2003 - but we did move up through the prior days pit session high but couldn't get to the globex high. Again, in "better behaved" markets, we often see sellers jump in on such a failure and we got a good sell off yesterdat.

So again - looking at the usual suspect levels - yesterdays range & value area to look for rejection to the downside. I'm hoping for shorts but not going in with a "short only" mentality. I just think there's good potential for unwinding long positions on any failed moves up.

There is of course, also the chance that we drop from the open, so one option on the table if it seems to be falling rapidly is short a small position and then scale in IF it moves lower. When it sells off, it's not always possible to get a nice entry.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 199.75 -> 2011
Value - 1998 -> 2006
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1990.75 -> 2010
Value - 1998.25 ->2010
Globex - 1992.25 -> 2000.50

Settlement - 1997.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #374 (permalink)
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8th September

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Volume is back to normal now with a healthy (almost) 1.7 million contracts traded on Friday. We are still in a range. On Wednesday we had a push up in Globex and a sell off in the pit session. On Thursday we had a push up in the pit session and a sell off in the same. Friday we reversed the pattern and sold down before seeing buyers step in.

We've not gotten close to the old high of 1986.25, we seem to have a "base" of around 1988. This is rangebound behaviour and we can see the range above in the white square. We've had a few days of decent volume and so far the market seems to like trading up here. This may well be the base for a move higher.

Still - the best potential is to the short side, if we can work our way down past 86.25, we have the potential for longs getting out of the way. The upside now also has the potential for a pop as we have built positions in last weeks range and there will be stops either side. We have 20 points between the extremes, so my plan is to not fade the extremes but to expect it to get to the other side if the extremes hold. So basically, let other traders fight it out at the range extremes and participate on a lower-reward/lower risk move once the break/hold is confirmed.

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We can see that last weeks range was very normally distributed and so we'll look at the value area for a hold as well as the extremes. We should expect it to be a little choppy around the middle of that range & the POC at 2000.

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We can see Thursday and Friday here, how they basically did the opposite. Early in today, I'm looking to see what happens on a push down to 2000 as well as what occurs if we hit Fridays high. Other than that, it's playing intraday levels until we get to weekly range/value extremes.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1988.25 -> 2011
Value - 1996.50 -> 2006.50
S1 1992.50 R1 2015.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1988.25-> 2006.50
Value - 1994 ->2006.50
Globex - 2001.75 -> 2006.75

Settlement - 2006

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #375 (permalink)
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9th September

Note that the markets rollover this week - which can cause some odd action as people move to the new month. The rollover is officially Thursday but can really kick in any time before or after Thursday. It's worth monitoring the volume of September and December contracts from this point forward.

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Yesterday we didn't really do much. Volume was a little low - and it was evident right from the open, it was summertime slow again but it did pick up later on. The first 30 minutes was pretty painful. The bigger picture remains unchanged - we are still in the range - so the comments from yesterdays prep still apply.

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We can see last weeks action on the left and this weeks on the right. Yesterday we said


Quoting 
We can see that last weeks range was very normally distributed and so we'll look at the value area for a hold as well as the extremes. We should expect it to be a little choppy around the middle of that range & the POC at 2000.

We've basically tested last weeks value area at both extremes and are now back in it.

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We can see that Fridays value are held yesterday. So the plan for today is the same as yesterday....


Quoting 
Early in today, I'm looking to see what happens on a push down to 2000 as well as what occurs if we hit Fridays high. Other than that, it's playing intraday levels until we get to weekly range/value extremes.

Obviously when plotting yesterdays levels, not that the range was much tighter yesterday so I would not expect both sides of yesterdays value area to hold.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1988.25 -> 2011
Value - 1996.50 -> 2006.50
S1 1992.50 R1 2015.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1994 -> 2006.25 (pit) / 2006.75 (globex)
Value - 1998.75 ->2006.75
Globex - 1996.25 -> 2002

Settlement - 2000.50

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #376 (permalink)
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10th September

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Yesterday started out pretty useless. Directionless trade and tough to get a price to lean on unless you were lucky to get in early. Then (after my bedtime), we took a pop through the high and sellers took it down to the close.

So now we are at the bottom of our range. Today is all about whether it holds or not. We have the old high at 1985.75, we probed through that yesterday but are now back above it. If it breaks down, we should see some sell stops and they could be significant. Significant enough not to need to short immediately. If it does break aggressively, don't expect much of a pullbacl.

If 1985.75 holds and we move back towards the top of the range, I expect that to give us less opportunity and slower action.

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The weekly profile doesn't really give us much. There's really no significant distribution area.

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We can see the drop here. We can also see how the 1985.75 area has been significant in the Globex session. Ideally we'd move up in the pit session and test a value/range extreme from yesterday and move down giving us a chance to be short into the low.

For the long side, I'd be wary of any moves off yesterdays low as sellers may be inclined to push it down aggressively.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1983.25 -> 2006.75
Value - 1992.25 -> 2005.25
S1 1992.50 R1 2015.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1983.25 -> 1999.50 (pit) / 2003 (globex)
Value - 1999.75 -> 1996.25
Globex - 1985.50-> 1992.25

Settlement - 1989.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #377 (permalink)
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11th September

Rollover Day. So today I'm keeping an eye on the volumes. I usually do a section on the topstep squawk on Tuesdays & Thursdays and the only reason I'm trading today is because of that. Most of the time this is a day off for me.

Still - the plan is to have an eye on the volume in the September and December contracts. Once December volume exceeds September volume, I'll move to December.

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Yesterday we broke through the 1985.75 level but there really wasn't any "run for the doors" so right now I'm treating that as a range extension down. It may be that 1978.25 will be the more significant test as we did hit that a number of times before the probe up to 85.75. Either way, it should be VERY clear if longs get stopped out.

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As we can see, we probed down 7 ticks and then buyers came in and took it up for most of the day. We got an early sell off in the Globex session. Interestingly where the bulk of action in yesterdays globex was just above 85.75, todays so far we are just below 85.75.

Into the open, I'm looking for action around 85.75 whichever side we open. If we open below and it holds, I do expect sellers to try to kick it down below yesterdays low and to 78.25.

It's an inflection point and so I'd normally expect this to be a very interesting day as one side will need to fold. Trouble is the rollover. People will be closing out positions in September and opening them in December. If you put emphasis on order flow, then obviously a lot of the orders today will be non-directional. September contract will have a lot of orders to close positions - so they can consume liquidity but are basically neutral. December will have a lot of opening positions but not really by shorter term traders who are nudging it about - it'll be a lot of longer term guys positioning - so from an intraday perspective, they don't give a hoot. So Order Flow analysis is problematic on days like this.

Saying that, sometimes we don't roll till the Friday. Life is like a box of chocolates as Forrst Gump says - anything can happen.... even a sell off.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1980 -> 2006.75
Value - 1994.25 -> 2000.25
S1 1992.50 R1 2015.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1983.25 -> 1999.50 (pit) / 2003 (globex)
Value - 1999.75 -> 1996.50
Globex - 1980.00 -> 1995.75

Settlement - 1995

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #378 (permalink)
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Just noticed my charts are showing Sept Contract for yesterday but December for today.

So right now we seem to be holding the old high with an overnight low of 85.75 - there was no sell off overnight.

My apologies for the confusion!

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  #379 (permalink)
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New levels starting tomorrow: Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

Note - this is just a placeholder for my own use...

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  #380 (permalink)
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15th September

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Chart has been adjusted for the older new contract. We have 2 lines quite close to each other.

1970.25 - an old high that was tested a number of times
1977.75 - the next high which just got hit once

We broke down through the 77.75 line with very little reaction. No sign of long stopping out. We took a dip through the 70.25 level in todays Globex session and are now between those 2 levels. At this point, we have to consider the market might happily carry on down without any reaction at going back into the old range. For the downside, I'm watching to see what happens if the 70.25 line breaks in the pit session and if longs unwind rapidly. If not, we could still have downside and I'd expect it to be a grind possibly down to 1934.50 if we are headed that way. Obviously, if we get a test of 70.25 or 77.75 from below, that will give more confidence to the downside today.

To the upside - that would be a value play and see us back to the top of the white box and a test of the highs.

So basically looking to revert to the range of the past few weeks or start moving down, still with the potential for longs running for the doors.

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We have opened the week below last weeks value and have already broken last weeks low. On the open, we'll see how the US traders like these prices. It is always decent probability of at least an initial reaction upwards after a move down in Globex IF we are still below Fridays settlement at the open. That move might just be enough to see us move up and test a key level before moving down.

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We can see the 77.75 level was resistance late on Friday and was tested from below 3 times. Settlement was 76.75 and now we are at 71.75 as of writing. I'm watching for those levels as well as the value area for a test. It does look like a snap up off the open OR a short off an upside test would be the easiest, most obvious trades that lots of people would join in on. For a long to get to yesterdays high or value high, I think you just have to play off levels that develop intraday as that's not so obvious (although equally as likely).

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1971.25 -> 1998.75
Value - 1978.50-> 1991.50
S1 1966 R1 1992.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1971.25 -> 1987.50 / 1991.50
Value - 1975.50 -> 1985
Globex - 1968 -> 1975.25

Settlement - 1976.75

Long Term - 2003, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Last edited by DionysusToast; September 15th, 2014 at 06:18 AM.
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