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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,283 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old August 25th, 2014, 07:29 AM   #361 (permalink)
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25th August

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Volume is still low. In the Globex session, we have come close to 2000. If 2000 is a target for a lot of people, then we will have a lot of people exiting there and it could mean we won't quite get to it or it'll fall back when we do get there.

The move up had no real pullback or point were we can say profit taking occurred. Obviously, if everyone takes profit at the same time, that could cause a snowball to the downside. Doesn't mean it will happen. Just means we should be aware that everyone that went long on the way up needs to sell in order to take profit and if too many people do that at the same time, it will cause a rapid move down.

To the upside, if we move down to 1978.25 and push up from there, then I think we could see buyers more confident. Any other upward move is lower confidence for me without a pullback.

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Last weeks profile has a very flat top around 1991.75 - so look at 1991.50-1992 to be a line in the sand, if we start working our way into that, we have the potential to grind to 1982 - the bottom of the upper distribution from last week. Below that and I think we'll see some decent downside momentum.

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The split globex/pit profile shows pretty much the same thing.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1955.75 -> 1992
Value - 1972.50 -> 1991.50
S1 1965, R1 2001.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1981.50 -> 1991.25
Value - 1985.50-> 1989.50
Globex - 1988.75 -> 1997.50

Settlement - 1987.75

Today - 1991.50-1992

Long Term- 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old August 26th, 2014, 11:37 AM   #362 (permalink)
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Power went off doing my prep this AM because of a monsoon storm

Went down to check on the kids - the kids play room was flooding

Went onto the roof to see if I could clear the overflowing gutter - managed to put my hand through a roof tile and cut my hand and wrist.

Spent the next hour fighting water coming in through the window seals (in the dark) until finally giving in, moving the furniture out and leaving the water to find it's own way out.

Took the kids out to dinner (no electric), then got gridlocked for an hour on the way back 'cause the power lines/poles had been knocked into the road.

Anyway - I got back, cleared out most of the water as the rain has subsided, got a few buckets downstairs on some of the remaining leaks.

Thank heavens for beer...

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Old August 26th, 2014, 11:43 AM   #363 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Power went off doing my prep this AM because of a monsoon storm

Went down to check on the kids - the kids play room was flooding

Went onto the roof to see if I could clear the overflowing gutter - managed to put my hand through a roof tile and cut my hand and wrist.

Spent the next hour fighting water coming in through the window seals (in the dark) until finally giving in, moving the furniture out and leaving the water to find it's own way out.

Took the kids out to dinner (no electric), then got gridlocked for an hour on the way back 'cause the power lines/poles had been knocked into the road.

Anyway - I got back, cleared out most of the water as the rain has subsided, got a few buckets downstairs on some of the remaining leaks.

Thank heavens for beer...

Damn!

I only wish the best for you and your family.

Regards

"You adapt, evolve, compete or die" Paul Tudor Jones
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Old August 26th, 2014, 11:54 AM   #364 (permalink)
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Hope everything gets better soon for you Pete!

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Old August 27th, 2014, 07:17 AM   #365 (permalink)
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We broke 2000 yesterday and the reaction was - well not much. No signs of longs unwinding. Just more grind up on low volume. So the break didn't even bring people into the market either way.

So now we look for signs of support - a pullback to 85.75 would be good - the old high. That would shake out some longs and give us more confidence that the market has a "floor" somewhere.

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In terms of lines in the sand - we also have 1997 from yesterday and 1992 from earlier in the week. 1992 could see some buyers unwind if it does break.

Not much more to add - it's very tight, low volume summertime action. We could get a sell off just because we have no place that we can see longs were shaken out, so you have to wonder how many more people are going to go long up here. When it goes, there's lots of longs to unwind.

Gameplan is to have that in mind all the time and look for strong order flow on any breaks to the downside. Otherwise it's just playing the chop.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1988.75 -> 2002.75
Value - 1993 -> 1999
S1 1965, R1 2001.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1992.25 (globex) / 1997 (pit) -> 2002.75
Value - 1997.25 > 2000.25
Globex - 1998 -> 2000.50

Settlement - 1998.50

Today - 1992, 1997

Long Term- 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old August 28th, 2014, 06:21 AM   #366 (permalink)
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28th August


Just 771k contracts yesterday. We should have volume back on the 8th September. If we are lucky mid-next week as I believe labor day is Monday.

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Yesterday was a little bearish but depta came off just 30k contracts high to low yesterday. On the one hand, that's good for right now but basically not really enough to be indicative of any serious unwinding. Range was just 6.5 points.

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We can see this weeks profile with the step just above 1992 - so keep an eye on that. It is possible we get more momentum if it breaks. Upside looks like a grind till we get through 2000. Even if we get through that, we didn't see much upside momentum last time.

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It did actually look like we were going to breakdown yesterday. We got through the bottom step in the profile from overnight shortly after opening - but no reaction. Then through the overnight low and it picked up a bit and we got through the 1997 level. There was no delta shift down accompanying the move and we couldn't get to the next line in the sand at 1992.

So today - expecting chop but with fingers tightly crossed that a break of 1992 actually has a few longs running (well slouching) for the doors.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1988.75 -> 2002.75
Value - 1994.50 -> 1999.50
S1 1965, R1 2001.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1993.25 -> 2000 (pit) / 200.50 (globex)
Value - 1995.25 > 1998.25
Globex - 1995.25 -> 1997.50

Settlement - 1997

Today - 1992

Long Term- 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old August 29th, 2014, 07:40 AM   #367 (permalink)
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29th August

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A bit more volume yesterday - just over a million. It did look like the sellers were going to take it yesterday, especially when we tested Wednesdays pit session low and sellers came in taking delta down 12k contracts. We also started off with liquidity really low - liquidity providers obviously somewhat nervous. When the market held, they came back in and it became a grind again.

Now we can see a small 4 day range up here, which is actually good for the upside from a "price acceptance" perspective. We've also come close to a test of the old high - 1985.75 - not very close, yesterdays low was 1987.50 but it did seem that buyers stepped in.

So for today, a conundrum. It is the last day of the month, so we could see a push up. It is also a holiday on Monday PLUS we are already in a period of low volume. We could see very low volume today because people will be making it a 4 day weekend. Certainly I would expect it to be dead in the PM. For me, I'll be on the lookout for it to pick up after the Consumer Sentiment & if it's not going by 10:15 - I'll leave it for the day.

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We can see the 4 day range more clearly here. If we drop below say 1999, we can look for a churn to 1994 - not much to get excited about. Thin air above is obviously, so there is potential for interest up there but there was noet on the last poke above 2000, so unless the news is amazing this AM, it's hard to see why buyers will take it this time around.

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So far we are 100% long overnight, so that does give the potential for a snap down off the open. We have another new all time high. We are way above the point at which longs will bail out - which I would say now is below 1993 (according to the weekly profile) and I imagine that as long as 85.75 holds, longs have no reason to worry.

So an initial rebalance of overnight positions to the downside might give us an initial trade short. Getting low enough to spook the longs is quite far considering the volatility, so we have to keep fingers crossed for the month end push up or it might be a really poor day.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1987.50 -> 2003.75
Value - 1993.50 -> 1999.50
S1 1965, R1 2001.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1987.50 (globex) -> 1988 (pit) / 1997.25
Value - 1992 > 1996.50
Globex - 1997 -> 2003.75

Settlement - 1996.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old September 2nd, 2014, 06:09 AM   #368 (permalink)
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2nd September

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Two main themes for this week for me. First - has the volume returned yet? Labor day is behind us, we all want to see the volume return but it may be that everyone waits for everyone else for the first few days. So it might start out slow.

Second question once the volume does return. Does the market really like trading up at these levels we set in the summertime. So another test of the old highs would bode well for more upside. A move straight up is lower confidence for me simply because I believe a lot of people will feel better if we get a test plus it shakes out a few people.

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Compared to last week, we are above value. So look also for a reaction around the value area. If we drop below 2000, then I expect us to see the low 90's.

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We can see a push up in the Globex, so that makes us long into the open, which could give us a counter-reaction.

I'm keeping an open mind going into today. Sort of see how it plays in the first few days of traders returning to the market. Let the market get back into it's rhythm again.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1987.50 -> 2003.75
Value - 1993.50 -> 1999.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - not using this today - after the Sunday/Holiday Monday Trading
Value - not using this today - after the Sunday/Holiday Monday Trading
Globex - 1997.25 -> 2006.25

Settlement - not using this today - after the Sunday/Holiday Monday Trading

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old September 3rd, 2014, 06:41 AM   #369 (permalink)
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3rd September

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We had a good pop up in the Globex session on the ES and Eurostoxx over on Eurex. As per yesterday


Quoting 
Two main themes for this week for me. First - has the volume returned yet? Labor day is behind us, we all want to see the volume return but it may be that everyone waits for everyone else for the first few days. So it might start out slow.

Second question once the volume does return. Does the market really like trading up at these levels we set in the summertime. So another test of the old highs would bode well for more upside. A move straight up is lower confidence for me simply because I believe a lot of people will feel better if we get a test plus it shakes out a few people.

So this still stands. Volume was low yesterday, so hopefully we'll see a little more today. If not, the whole week could be a low volume week.

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As per yesterday


Quoting 
Compared to last week, we are above value. So look also for a reaction around the value area. If we drop below 2000, then I expect us to see the low 90's.

We did go through the weekly value high, worked our way down to the value low and just below it and then moved up from there. So that's a sort of downside test that coud help us to the upside. Still - that doesn't give me confidence yet that we can hold above 2000 when the volume returns.

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A couple of interesting things here. We can see the 2 short horizontal lines. That's the first 2 hours trading where we sat in a range under 6 points. We then had a breakdown as the longs in that range stopped out. Then to the Globex session we had the big push up.

So today - we are going into the the day potentially with long overnight inventory, so again - look for a move down off the open. Then I'll be watching to see how we react around yesterdays high and yesterdays value high.

Still, with that said, it's all about the volume still. The lower the volatility, the more I lean to playing areas that develop intraday.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1987.50 -> 2003.75
Value - 1993.50 -> 1999.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1992.75 -> 2004.25 (pit) / 2006.25 (globex)
Value - 1996.26 ->2002.75
Globex - 1999.25 -> 2011

Settlement - 1999.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796
August 29th, 2014 05:40 PM

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Old September 4th, 2014, 07:49 AM   #370 (permalink)
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4th September

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A little more volume coming in. We had 1.2 million traded yesterday, that's still on the low side but it's creeping up day by day. We are making higher highs but we don't seem to be getting anywhere. We have the potential for longs to be spooked by any move down, just based on the way the chart looks. So I'm a bit more prepared to "jump on" a down move than an up move.

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On this weeks profile, we can see that we traded for more time and volume 1998-2001. Right now, it seems that the market likes trading at the lower end of this weeks range despite the probes up. That's not generally a good sign for the upside.

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What was interesting yesterday was that we were "better behaved". We initially moved down to the prior days value high, then we moved up from there. We couldn't get back to the open and then we moved to the prior days value low. Over the past few months, we've not really had much action around these levels, so this is sign that the levels may become more relevant again.

We made it as high as 2003 in after hitting the value low. So that's a level to keep an eye on today.

So - I'm watching the usual suspect levels VAL, VAH and yesterdays range with an eye on longs unwinding. Ideal scenario would be a move up to 2003, then get short, take some off @ 1997.50 and then see the buyers take it lower. So looking for a good reaction off a level and then get positioned.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1992.75 -> 2011
Value - 1998 -> 2004.50
S1 1992 R1 2006.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1996.25 -> 2008.50 (pit) / 2011 (globex)
Value - 1997.50 ->2003
Globex - 1997 -> 2003.25

Settlement - 1998.75

Long Term - 2000, 1985.75,1978.25, 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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