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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,299 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old July 31st, 2014, 07:34 AM   #341 (permalink)
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31st July

Last day of the month! Always beware a pump up.

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Yesterday we were looking at a narrowing range and the prospect that the 60-80 area would be tough in terms of determining bias because of prior chop.

Yesterday we poked down below the 59.75 level. Then we popped back up and stalled just a tick below our 71.75 level then settled at 1965.

So from the chart, it does look like we are moving down but I'm still fairly neutral between 60-80. For another push down, I'm looking at 47.50 as a line in the sand.

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The profile is showing classic normal distribution this week - so it doesn't tell us much other than if we get above 1964, we should travel to the opposite end of weekly value to 1973.50

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Mondays range is market out - and we are back within that range.

Looking at today - the 2 hour chart looks like a channel down but the week so far really looks neutral. The days have had decent ranges. To an extent, the bigger picture is irrelevant because even without a break of a major level, we are seeing decent ranges.

I would still keep an eye on 59.75 for a breakdown & run to 47.50 - but other than that - look for a move up to the high of value for the week now that we are at the low of value.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1956.50 -> 1979.50
Value 1964.25 -> 1973.50
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1956.50 -> 1974.25
Value - 1959 -> 1967
Globex - 1961.50 -> 1965.50

Settlement - 1973

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 31st, 2014, 09:32 AM   #342 (permalink)
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31st July
I'm looking at 47.50 as a line in the sand.

Ok, I'm impressed.

What made you think 1947.50 would be the line in the sand.

Looks like you came very close to that line pre-market.

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Old July 31st, 2014, 10:13 AM   #343 (permalink)
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Update - we could see buyers step in all the way to the highs over the coming days - we are @ the bottom of the range - but if 47.50 breaks, I have 36.50 & 17.25 as targets

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Old July 31st, 2014, 12:18 PM   #344 (permalink)
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Update - we could see buyers step in all the way to the highs over the coming days - we are @ the bottom of the range - but if 47.50 breaks, I have 36.50 & 17.25 as targets


Hmm two targets in one day.
You must have a voo doo doll on the market

LOL

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Old August 1st, 2014, 04:37 AM   #345 (permalink)
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Hmm two targets in one day.
You must have a voo doo doll on the market

LOL

yeah - we did get big bounces off both areas 47.50 and 36.50 before ploughing through them.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day

Basically they are just levels I picked up off the 2 hour chart, places we've reacted before. I see them more as "lines in the sand" - so both looking for an initial reaction and people bailing out and perpetuating a move when the level fails.

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Old August 1st, 2014, 04:57 AM   #346 (permalink)
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1st August

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Just to put things in perspective. This move down is still not huge. Therefore the sky might not be falling in. On the flip side it's nowhere near "it surely can't go down any more, can it?" either.

Volume was high by the end of yesterday - 2.7 million, so plenty of participation on the way down.

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We got through both our 47.50 and 36.50 levels yesterday, the next downside target I have is 17.25 and 06.50. Even at 06.50 - I'd still look at this action as an overall range. At these levels I will be looking for signs that buyers are stepping in to take us back to 1980. Sure - this could be the start of a new bull market but right now all we are doing is heading back down towards prices we had in May.

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At the end of the Globex session yesterday, it did appear that 47.50 was going to hold. We'd already had a decent sell off overnight and the day started off slow. After 10am it picked up and we headed down pausing again at 36.50 which held for a while till sellers hit it again. Then we came back to 39 and buyers couldn't take it any higher. So into today, I'll be watching the 36.50-39.00 area as a line in the sand. I'd expect some short stops above that.

Other than that, the daily low and the 17.50 level, not much to play off. Basically looking to see if we get continuation or recovery today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923 -> 1979.50
Value - mostly irrelevant after yesterdays move
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 1923.50 -> 1952.75 (pit) / 1965.50
Value - also not really relevant from a trend day like yesterday
Globex - 1923.25 -> 1930.75

Settlement - 1936.50-1939 range

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old August 1st, 2014, 07:06 AM   #347 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
yeah - we did get big bounces off both areas 47.50 and 36.50 before ploughing through them.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day

Basically they are just levels I picked up off the 2 hour chart, places we've reacted before. I see them more as "lines in the sand" - so both looking for an initial reaction and people bailing out and perpetuating a move when the level fails.

LOL yeah I know.
It is just that if CNBC saw your predictions, you would be the highlight speaker this morning.
And all the interviewers asking:
"Where is the market going? And why are we in this handbasket?"

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Old August 4th, 2014, 09:02 AM   #348 (permalink)
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4th August

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Decent volume on Friday - 2.88 million contracts but we settled very close to the open. 1920.25 was the open & 1918.50 was the settlement. We didn't get to the 1906.50 level yet and if that breaks then I think you have an argument for 85.50 being a level but other than that I'm looking for 67.50.

So I think the game is the same today watch for a break and if not, just take advantage of the decent ranges we have been having. Even Friday was 22 point range despite the fact we got nowhere. Just have an eye on the volume/pace off the open on the offchance we lose the volatility.

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On Friday the pit session basically extended the globex range, so I think those extremes are good areas to play off. Other than that, I see 26.75 being of interest - the late pullback up before we drove down to the close. Fridays Value area is also interesting as we have traded within that in the globex.

We can also see that if we break above 32 - we don't have a lot of resistance to 46.50 - so that's worth keeping an eye on.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1910.25 -> 1979.50
Value - mostly irrelevant with such an elongated week
S1 1892.50, R1 1962

Daily Numbers
Range - 1910.25 -> 1932.25
Value - 1917.50 -> 1929
Globex - 1919.25 -> 1927

Settlement - 1918.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Last edited by DionysusToast; August 4th, 2014 at 09:55 AM. Reason: settlement oops
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Old August 5th, 2014, 06:21 AM   #349 (permalink)
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5th August

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Volume was slightly lower yesterday at 1.6 million.

We are also at an interesting point - we have a couple of levels above at 36.50 and 47.50 that have acted as areas of support. So whilst one scenario on the table is a move up to 1980, if we do reverse at 36.50 or 47.50, traders could take that as a sign that we can head down to the 1800's again.

So I'm watching 36.50 and 47.50 specifically to see if sellers jump in. We have popped thru 36.50 and are now below it again so eyes on that area at the open.

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The weekly profile shows a double distribution with less trading between 31 and 56.50 - so as per yesterday - if we break up there is the possibility we make up a lot of ground quickly. That didn't occur yesterday, but it's still there potentially.

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Yesterday was another decent range day, although it started slowly. We have a single print at 1925.75 and so far we are above that in the Globex session. We aren't really moving off key levels according to the way I look at things but we are putting in tradable runs with plenty of opportunity to get on board.

Today I'll be watching the single print at 25.75 as well as the VAH at 27.50. If buyers come in at those areas, then I expect us to get to yesterdays highs. Then of course watching those longer term support levels to see if they become resistance for a larger move down.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1910.25 -> 1979.50
Value - mostly irrelevant with such an elongated week
S1 1892.50, R1 1962

Daily Numbers
Range - 1914.75 -> 1937.50
Value - 1915 -> 1927.50
Globex - 1927.50 -> 1933.25

Settlement - 1932

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old August 6th, 2014, 06:37 AM   #350 (permalink)
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6th August

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Yesterday we were looking for a move to 36.50 or 47.50 and rejection off that. Expectation was that sellers would step in on a second rejection and we'd see downside below 1800.

We did not revisit 36.50. So the prior days push thru that level to 37.50 was basically the test. So yesterday was a bit of a tough call early on. We did have volume at 1928 from the globex profile and we reversed down from there but not really a major move. Basically, it's a reversal off a level that is more relevant to shorter term players whereas a revisit and failure at 36.50 or 47.50 would have brought in some longer term players.

So for the first 4 hours we just ranged 1920-1930. It was also think and whippy within that range. Ugly action.

Then the low of the day broke and THEN we saw some momentum. We got as low as 1907.50, not quite to our 1906.50 level.

So we may now be done to the downside and I'll be looking to test that low again and see if buyers come in. If we don't get a test or it's a test off a Globex level - same deal - a move - but no great participation.

Of course, I'm also looking to see what happens if 1906.50 breaks - the above chart is 4 hours today - the orange lines are some tentative levels - 1885.25 and 1891.25 - I'm having a hard time deciding which one of those could potentially be support - but I think we'll most likely see a reaction of 1891.15. Below that I'm looking for 1867.25.

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Looking at the split profile, we can see the "L" period (each letter is 30 mins trading) - really took a dump when we broke the low of the day. The low was 1920 and we have a single print at 1919.75 - that's well worth watching today if we move up. Also, into the close we came back to test out 1917.25 level, so again keep an eye on that. If we move up and reverse down off one of those - we have a chance of decent downside participation.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1907.50-> 1937.50
Value - 1918 -> 1933.50
S1 1892.50, R1 1962

Daily Numbers

Range - 1907.50 -> 1930.50 (pit) / 1933.25 (globex)
Value - 1914.50 -> 1930.50
Globex - 1909.75 -> 1918.25

Settlement - 1913
Today - 1919.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1936.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1885.25- 1891.25, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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