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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,283 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old July 23rd, 2014, 08:17 AM   #331 (permalink)
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thx/nothing going on in the floor

thx for your daily contribution. i find it helpful.

there is nothing going on at the floors of chicago or ny. has not been for many, many years....with the exception of options.

i believe the S&P pit makes up 2% (or less) of the daily S&P 500 volume...with ES making up 98% of the volume.

Had a brother in the S&P pit since 1982....he is no longer there. When i switched from Treasury futures to indices i asked him if i should go work on the floor in the S&P pit. He said no. He said if you want to 'arb' 1 or 2 orders a day, then go for it. He went on to say that even the guys who were trying to get 'arb' edges were getting run over.

For some reason a lot of educators and people on this forum still hold on the idea that the floor is some mystical place with amazing traders. Has not been the case for many years. If it were the case, I would be down there instead of trading from my home with kids running around

Finally, i knew 100 or so S&P pit traders (some very good)...not 1 of them is on the floor anymore.

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Old July 23rd, 2014, 08:42 AM   #332 (permalink)
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S&P pit

In 2006 (?) I went to the CME for an options seminar with Dan Sheridan.

Anyway we went to the floor and the pit was basically dead

Several other pits were non-existent with trading being done electronically

Just my2cents

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Old July 23rd, 2014, 09:23 AM   #333 (permalink)
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Guys...


We are in general agreement. Right, CBOE is where I was most familiar and I am not sure I know anyone that is still on the floor personally. I think what I was objecting to was the general characterization that the floor guys where goons. While that may be somewhat true it is not all they/we were it is just the trait that had to dominate to survive in that competitive environment.

So past that little attack I was stating that the valuable times are within the RTH, for me between 7 am and 11 am CST.

Sorry for the butt in...carry on guys.

Enjoy the thread as well.

Dan

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Old July 23rd, 2014, 01:51 PM   #334 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
everyone can have an opinion based on whatever empirical evidence or whatever cognitive bias they like. We agree that the influence of the floor trader is not what it used to be. As for the pit session being de ninimis, that may be farther that I'd go.

In July, I have 4 trades that have occurred before 7:20 am CST and zero trades that have a time stamp after 10:54 am CST. The wldman session is after all, all that matters. 7:30 am-10:30 am.

Agreed.

Earlier this year, I was taken on a tour of the floor and was lucky enough to spend an hour in the S&P pit going over what they were doing and talking to a few of the guys. So my observations are based mostly on that short period.

As has been stated - other pits are actually fairly busy - options but also grains & energies.

In terms of the 9:30am EST start for the ES - it's when the stocks open. So the personality of the ES changes at that time thru to 16:15 when the stocks close.

It doesn't make the pit session "de ninimis" or trivial- it just means that this derivative market behaves a certain way when the underlying is trading. The underlying of the ES is the 500 stocks in the index.

The pit traders I would say are trivial to the overall market but not to the people (or paper) who are getting a guaranteed fill (at a price) on their hedge trades. They provide a service, I just don't feel it indicative of "what will happen next".

Of course, you can trade almost 24x5 - but personality changes from Asia thru Europe through the US sessions.

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Old July 23rd, 2014, 02:22 PM   #335 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Agreed.

Earlier this year, I was taken on a tour of the floor and was lucky enough to spend an hour in the S&P pit going over what they were doing and talking to a few of the guys. So my observations are based mostly on that short period.

As has been stated - other pits are actually fairly busy - options but also grains & energies.

In terms of the 9:30am EST start for the ES - it's when the stocks open. So the personality of the ES changes at that time thru to 16:15 when the stocks close.

It doesn't make the pit session "de ninimis" or trivial- it just means that this derivative market behaves a certain way when the underlying is trading. The underlying of the ES is the 500 stocks in the index.

The pit traders I would say are trivial to the overall market but not to the people (or paper) who are getting a guaranteed fill (at a price) on their hedge trades. They provide a service, I just don't feel it indicative of "what will happen next".

Of course, you can trade almost 24x5 - but personality changes from Asia thru Europe through the US sessions.

I guess you could say the personality changes when rth starts. even if it's only the volume.

but one could argue that stocks open based on what the futures are doing. all the after market action from yesterday, today's pre market and other global markets are "included" in the futures. so my analysis is based on eth. the only thing from the rth session I pay attention to are gaps.

and for the pit traders, I was always looking at them as a tourist attraction, nothing more

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Old July 24th, 2014, 05:48 AM   #336 (permalink)
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24th July

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Yesterday was the 2 days after popping the high and just 1.1 million contracts traded. It's pretty weak volume-wise and the chart also shows it's not quite decisive yet. It could go either way, so still looking for clues as to which way this will go. Of course, there's not much trading up here but sellers are not making any effort to sell it down and we are making marginally higher highs each day.

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The weekly profile shows volume starting to form at the highs but that's relative to the weeks volume which has been low. So I think looking at this to confirm the market likes trading these prices is premature at this point.

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Yesterday was just under a 9 point range. What does pique my my interest is that in the PM and the current Globex session, we have held the old high of 78.25 - if that holds from above into the open, I think we have a decent chance of short term buyers jumping in to push it up from there.

Even if we breach that in the remainder of the Globex session, I'll be looking to see how we react there.

I'll be watching the usual levels into the open to see if we can get an initial reaction but won't be expecting much opportunity unless New Home Sales at 10am gives us a bump. This is clearly a make or break area, so if we knock out a downside levels buyers could jump in but as per yesterday this might take days before it finally goes one way or the other.

My presumption then will be that early swings will provide the best opportunity and that there might not be much on afterwards. If it does break decisively either way, I'll probably not be there to see it if I do manage to get an early trade to work out.


Weekly Numbers

Range - 1959 -> 1983.50
Value 1963 -> 1978
S1 1954.25, R1 1983.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1972.25 (globex) / 1975.75 (pit) -> 1983.50
Value - 1979.75 -> 1983.50
Globex - 1978.25 -> 1983.50

Settlement - 1980.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 25th, 2014, 01:55 AM   #337 (permalink)
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25th July

An early prep today as I'm off to the beach for the weekend...

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Since we broke the highs, we've been waiting for a sign that it's going to breakdown or carry on up. Or rather - waiting to see buyers/sellers push it one way so that we can jump on for the ride.

It's still unresolved. As per day 1 of "new highs" we said it may take a few days to resolve. Now it's Friday and whilst it could break today, Fridays are usually slower - hence me taking the day off. If I were trading today, I'd give it till 10:45 and if it was slow, I'd switch off and do something else.

What is good to the upside is that we are building volume here and that we aren't convincingly breaking down below 78.25. We also made a marginal new high. As yet though - nothing has happened that cause buyers/sellers to jump in.

So - I'd be inclined to fade the ranges and let it break before taking a continuation trade.

If we head down and sellers jump in, then 71.50 is the next line in the sand and then 59.75. Below that we have 47.50 which is where I see the bottom of the range we were in before we popped the high.

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We can see the old high - the blue line and that we had probes below it but not able to hold. In the Globex session so far (1am EST), it is below that but we need to see what happens on the Pit open. If we open below 78.25 and that holds as resistance, I think we'll see some decent sell side participation. Other than that - I'd be looking to trade the range.

As per yesterday - early bird trades are worth considering as you might wait an hour for the next opportunity.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 1959 -> 1985.75
Value 1969.75 -> 1984.75
S1 1954.25, R1 1983.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1976.75 (globex) / 1979.50 (pit) -> 1985.75
Value - 1981 -> 1984
Globex - check later on... - too early now

Settlement - 1980.75

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 28th, 2014, 07:51 AM   #338 (permalink)
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28th July

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The market has taken a move down off the highs, so whilst it could move up from here, I'm biased towards a move to 1959.75 or 1947.50. So today, I'm looking mostly for signs of continuation downside.

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Last weeks profile is quite well spread out so at this point, I don't see it's really giving us any "make or break" levels.

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On Friday we took a couple of bounces around the 1974 level which is also the VAH of Fridays pit session. Today I'll be watching to see if we make it there. If we get there and sellers jump in, i'll be looking to take a short. Other than that, a break of Fridays low will also be a good short but slightly riskier as it might be a headfake down. In face, we already had that once in the Globex session.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1959 -> 1985.75
Value 1970.50 -> 1984
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1968 -> 1977.50 (pit) / 1980.75 (globex)
Value - 1970 -> 1974
Globex - 1966.50 -> 1973.25

Settlement - 1971.50
Today - 1974

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 29th, 2014, 05:18 AM   #339 (permalink)
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29th July

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Yesterday we had:

"The market has taken a move down off the highs, so whilst it could move up from here, I'm biased towards a move to 1959.75 or 1947.50. So today, I'm looking mostly for signs of continuation downside"

We didn't get down to 59.75 - buyers jumped in ahead of that at 60.75.

So today - slightly less clear than yesterday - so looking for signs we are heading back up or signs that we will go to a lower reference point - 47.50.

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We can see a minor level at 71.75 and it is possible that we lean on that to go up off the open - but it's not a high confidence move. Into today I'll be mostly watching Mondays extremes/value area to see if 'the opposition' step in. If not, looking for continuation after a break.

Apart from 71.75, any intraday opportunities that come up within yesterdays value area will be low confidence.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1959 -> 1985.75
Value 1970.50 -> 1984
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1960.75 -> 1976
Value - 1963.50 -> 1973
Globex - 1968.25 -> 1974

Settlement - 1973

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 30th, 2014, 08:38 AM   #340 (permalink)
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30th June

One more day to the end of the month. We started the month at 54.50, so at least for the next 2 days, keep that on the radar. There may be some end of month "window dressing" - a push to new highs. Just keep that in mind just in case.

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Yesterday we said:

"So today - slightly less clear than yesterday - so looking for signs we are heading back up or signs that we will go to a lower reference point - 47.50."

So if it was unclear yesterday - it should be confusing today as yesterday we got to the 1978.50 "top of range" - went a point through and then went back down close to our 59.75 level.

Early action was quite poor - we went down to test the prior days VAH/Settlement - then buyers stepped in but sluggishly. We rotated for a while and then we started working down. So those that traded the bounce off the VAH got a little bit for their money but the faders at the top got more.

Anyway - looking at the 2 hour chart - if you look left from where we are - it's a lot of chop. So I think whilst we are in the 1960-1980 range, it's mostly about taking advantage of intraday opportunities off the profile/prior day than trying to take bias off the longer term charts.

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So here's the daily profiles. We can see that Tuesdays profile is almost like Mondays profile turned on its head. Breaking down thru 1959.75 should see us clear to 47.50. Other than that I'm watching yesterdays value area - which has held so far in the Globex session. I'm also watching 67 & 76 where we had the intraday reversals yesterday.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1960.75 -> 1979.50
Value 1966.50 -> 1974.50
S1 1958.50, R1 1985.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1963 -> 1979.50
Value - 19639.50 > 1978.50
Globex - 1963.25 -> 1970

Settlement - 1973

Today only - 1967, 1976

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1937, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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