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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,781 / 919
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old July 1st, 2014, 07:09 AM   #311 (permalink)
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1st July

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End of June out of the way - so are we going to drop like a hot rock now?

Yesterday we said

"It's the end of the month on Monday and we may just hang out up here till then and then start dropping back at the start of the next month. So I'm still expecting a breakdown to complete the larger range, this being the end of the month we may just hug the highs though. 36 is still interesting and a break of 36 would have me looking for 1920.

Of course being the end of the month there could be a 'window dressing' push up through the highs but that's down on my list of probabilities.

Where we are now 51.50 as at posting - it seems almost rude not to end the month on a little pop through the highs. Looking left, we've had a good churn around these prices, so a poke out above 1960 or below 1937.25, should bring a bit of volume.

"

We didn't get a pop through the high yesterday but we hugged the highs and so if that was month end window-dressing as opposed to just regular range bound behavor (a traverse to the top extreme of the range), then that should be evident early on.

Our short term range is 1937.25-1960. Any push through the highs need to be played with caution - there will be stops there but once they are taken, there's a good chance it'll roll over. So breakout traders beware. I'll be looking for signs of absorption up to a couple of points above the high for a potential short. If it pushes through the high more than a couple of points then I have to consider a long trade when we come back to test the old high. So basically if we go through the high, I have to assess if this is another move up or if it's done ranging.

The cautious short in the case of a headfake is to let it go up, let it come down and as soon and only if you see cumulative delta come off 10-15k then take a retracement short. It is a rangebound/faders market but downside target is 37.25, so we don't need to catch the high.

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Profile-wise we are at the top of last weeks range. Not much to report other than rangebound behaviour whilst we are in the 'bulk' of last weeks distribution. So a downward move from here will probably be a churn. If we poke the highs and turn down we may get a bit more acceleration as value traders will now expect an excursion to the other side of value.

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Yesterday we said

"day was interesting, we stayed within the overnight range for most of the day, then just broke out in the last hour. We have stayed above that breakout point in todays Globex session so far. So keep an eye on 1949.75-1950 into the open of the pit session."

We got as low as 50.25 in the pit session - and we tested twice. That should be a minor line in the sand if we move down today. I expect a small pop off the area as support but some acceleration if we push through. So again, be close to the exit button if you go long off it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1936.25 -> 1960
Value 1943.75 -> 1953.75
S1 1938.75, R1 1962.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1948 (globex) / 1950.25 (pit) -> 1956.75
Value - 1952 -> 1949.55
Globex - 1953.50 -> 1957

Today - 1949.75-1950, 1936-1937.25

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 3rd, 2014, 06:41 AM   #312 (permalink)
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3rd July

My apologies for no prep yesterday - I was sick as a dog. There will be no prep tomorrow!

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We've popped up, so as usual, we want to see how we perform when we get back to the breakout point - 1960. Of course, we may see very little action today with tomorrow being such a major holiday.

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Looking at the weekly profile, we can see that not much trading occurred between 58.50->64.50, so if we drop thru 64.50, we should see acceleration.

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You can see the same thing here too. So for sure 64.50 is a level to watch. Obviously upside is fresh air so no levels up there for me but 71.75 is being added to our levels list as it's the new high.

We do have PMI at 10am and a raft of employment numbers at 8:30. If the market is quiet at 10:15, then that's as far as I'm willing to stay with it.

Happy 4th of July to all Americans out there.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1948 -> 1971.75
Value 1954.25 -> 1971.25 (but pretty meaningless as we have a double distribution)
S1 1938.75, R1 1962.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1964.50 -> 1970
Value - 1966 -> 1968
Globex - 1966 -> 1969.50 (5:40am EST)

Today - 1958.50, 1964.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 3rd, 2014, 08:57 AM   #313 (permalink)
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Old July 7th, 2014, 04:32 AM   #314 (permalink)
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7th July

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Based on the trading last week, we popped out above 1960 and we have a small minor support at 1964.50. We then had another breakout after that through.

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On a weekly basis, we can see 3 distributions - the upper one represents a small amount of trading leading to the holiday.

We can see small amounts of trading between 70.25 and 74.50. So if 74.50 breaks we should see 70.25 quickly and that may act as support. Similarly - if 1965 breaks, we should accelerate to 58.50 area and that may act as support. Between 65 and 70.25, we may chop a bit too - although I don't see that follows for the distributions above and below necessarily.

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We can see this thinly traded upper distribution here. So it's the lower area below 65 that represents the most predictable run.

So looking to downside levels as lines in the sand and fresh air above.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1948 -> 1978.25
Value 1955.25 -> 1978.25
S1 1957.50, R1 1987.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 19674.50 -> 1977.50
Value - 1975 -> 1976
Globex - 1973.50 -> 1977.50

Today - 1974.50, 1970.25, 1965, 1958.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 8th, 2014, 06:37 AM   #315 (permalink)
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8th July

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Yesterday we probably had more than a few US traders on vacation and the action was fairly narrow. We did continue down to 67.25 but no test of 64.50 or the 1960 level to tell us if we are due more movement upwards or back into range.

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As per yesterday

"On a weekly basis, we can see 3 distributions - the upper one represents a small amount of trading leading to the holiday.

We can see small amounts of trading between 70.25 and 74.50. So if 74.50 breaks we should see 70.25 quickly and that may act as support. Similarly - if 1965 breaks, we should accelerate to 58.50 area and that may act as support. Between 65 and 70.25, we may chop a bit too - although I don't see that follows for the distributions above and below necessarily.
"

No change in opinion there. We are now in the middle distribution and I don't see acceleration till we pop below it.

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Yesterday started with a poke down to the middle distribution (1970)- we came to a tick of it and then pushed up to the upper distribution (1974.50), went 2 ticks thru and then rolled back down, to penetrate that lower distribution. We are now sitting in that area. So I'm hoping we can get to 65 today and looking for decisiveness whether it breaks OR holds. If it holds, I think we have a chance for buyers to step in and drive it up and if it breaks, I think we have stops below.

Upside - also looking at 1972 the retrace high yesterday PM.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1948 -> 1978.25
Value 1955.25 -> 1978.25
S1 1957.50, R1 1987.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1967.25 - >1975 (pit) / 1977.50 (globex)
Value - 1968.50 -> 1972
Globex - 1967.25 -> 1971.25

Today - 1974.50, 1972, 1964.50->1965, 1958.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 10th, 2014, 05:16 AM   #316 (permalink)
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10th July

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So we dipped back into the old range and then moved up again. So we are looking for this 1960-1972 to break to really give us an indication on what happens next. Between that, I expect us to chop a bit.

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We have another triple distribution week. As we can see. Not much really much to add to this. but I still see above 1970 to be slightly faster action.

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Again not much to add from the split profiles but 1958.25 looks important to the downside, so a break of 1960 should be played cautiously with this there.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1952.75 -> 1977.50
Value 1958 -> 1970.25
S1 1957.50, R1 1987.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1958.25 >1968.25
Value - 1960.50 -> 1966
Globex - 1960.25 -> 1968.25

Today - 1958.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 11th, 2014, 08:48 AM   #317 (permalink)
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11th July

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This is getting interesting. Yesterday we said

"So we are looking for this 1960-1972 to break to really give us an indication on what happens next. Between that, I expect us to chop a bit."

Well 60 broke but in the Globex session. We made it through our 47.50 line which was an earlier breakout point and the top of the lowest of the above 3 potential ranges we marked out. We got as low as 45.25 in the Globex session but then quickly recovered in the pit session. So we do have the potential for a 47.40-78.25 range.

On the other hand considering where we stopped, people will be looking at this as a downwards channel, so if sellers do step in again and 47.50 breaks, I'll be looking for 1936 and then 1917. It's not done a good job of moving down of late though.

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The weekly profile doesn't help much in terms of areas it might break. It looks pretty thick from 55.50 to 63.00 but that's relative and considering yesterday, I don't think we can presume it'll chop there.

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Yesterday was interesting - we had the big drop down and then a recovery up to 1964 which was a single print in the Globex session. So I think we should keep an eye on 1964 today. similarly 1954.50 was a single print on the way back up yesterday and just below our VAL. So the 1954-1955 area is also of interest.

Settlement was 57.50 yesterday so the Globex session could be considered long as of typing but overall it's still within the range that developed later in the day, so that's not giving any clues right now.

So 1954-1955 & 1964 are the most immediate areas to watch off the open. If one side holds, we have a trade to the opposite end and a potential break.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1945.25 -> 1977.50
Value 1955.25 -> 1969.75
S1 1957.50, R1 1987.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1945.25 (globex) / 1945.75 (pit) -> 1964 (pit) / 1968.25 (globex)
Value - 1955 -> 1962.50
Globex - 1956.25 -> 1963.50

Today - 1954-1955, 1964

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 14th, 2014, 08:42 AM   #318 (permalink)
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14th July

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On thursday we were looking for the 60-70 range to break. Then it broke, hit a downside reference and now we are back in the 60-70 range.

So today - 72 could hold or we could get to the top of the range. At the top of the range, of we can roll over, I'll be looking for 47.50 again.

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We can see that below 1964 it's pretty thick below us, so if we get into that I expect it to be slow moving. Other than that, not much to see.

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We can see Fridays range was 1953-1963.50. So to the high end of Thursdays pit session ore the middle if you include the Globex. So I think we have to watch 63.50 once the pit session opens. If we get through that I'll be watching the VAH at 1960.25. Both looking to see if we find support there.

Above us -1 1972 is potential resistance and through that I'd expect at least a poke thru the high before rolling - or rather I'd PREFER to see a poke through the high before rolling over because I'll feel more confident about fading it if we poke through and roll over.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1945.25 -> 1977.50
Value 1953.75 -> 1968.75
S1 1947.25, R1 1976.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1953 (pit) -> 1963 (globex) / 1963.50 (pit)
Value - 1955.25 -> 1960.25
Globex - 1962.50 -> 1969.75
Settlement - 1962.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 15th, 2014, 06:04 AM   #319 (permalink)
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15th July

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Yesterday we said

"On thursday we were looking for the 60-70 range to break. Then it broke, hit a downside reference and now we are back in the 60-70 range.

So today - 72 could hold or we could get to the top of the range. At the top of the range, of we can roll over, I'll be looking for 47.50 again.
"

And we got through 72 - all the way to 74 and not much really happened at all. We have neither rolled, nor did we see buyers jump in. Whilst we did have some nice action at the end of last week, we have reverted back to what appears to be the start of a loooooong summer. We still do have potential for a run if we pop up a but right now I'm not expecting much. We do have news at 8:30am and at 10am Yellen is speaking but I don't think we are in for any suprises.

If we do get up to the all time highs, it will be interesting. I'd expect more of a whimper than a bang but

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We are still in last weeks range so from a weekly perspective. Not much here really.

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If this was a lazy poke through 72, then we need sellers to jump on this and push it through yesterdays low, if we can get down past there, then I think we have a good case for 60 as a target.

So expecting a slow day. Weekly wise there's not much to go off. First order of the day is a break of yesterdays pit session range and I think a downside break has more potential than an upside break. Either way, if we see people step in at the break of yesterdays range, I'll be looking for a retrace to the extreme of the range for a continuation.


Weekly Numbers

Range - 1945.25 -> 1977.50
Value 1953.75 -> 1968.75
S1 1947.25, R1 1976.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1962.50 (globex) / 1969.75 (pit) - 1974
Value - 1971 -> 1973
Globex - 1970.25-> 1973.25
Settlement - 1971

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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Old July 16th, 2014, 06:16 AM   #320 (permalink)
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16th July

This market doesn't appear to have decided if it's summertime or not...

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Yesterday we said....

"If this was a lazy poke through 72, then we need sellers to jump on this and push it through yesterdays low, if we can get down past there, then I think we have a good case for 60 as a target.

So expecting a slow day. Weekly wise there's not much to go off. First order of the day is a break of yesterdays pit session range and I think a downside break has more potential than an upside break. Either way, if we see people step in at the break of yesterdays range, I'll be looking for a retrace to the extreme of the range for a continuation."

SO we did manage a push down - a point through our 59.75 level and then sellers pushed it back to 70. That's as far as it got in the pit session which indicates more 60-70 ranging BUT in the globex session so far we've been up to 74.

So we do look set for a test of the highs and buyers could step in there on a break - or it could be a headfake. The headfake after a break of the high should put us back to 60 again.

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The weekly profile seems to indicate choppier action till we get through 74 and at that point we could make a break, so I'm looking at that into the open.

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We have 70.50 as the high of the pullback yesterday, so I'll be watching that into the open. Also, the Globex session is quite long and so we may have an initial snap back off the open..

So a break above 74 and a potential run to the highs is possible and an eye on 70.50. Beware an initial sell off though. If we do roll down from here, it will be lower confidence for me if we don't hit the highs first.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1958.75 -> 1976.25
Value 1966.75 -> 1973.25
S1 1947.25, R1 1976.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1958.75 -> 1976.25
Value - 11962.75 -> 1970.25
Globex - 1967 -> 1974.25

Settlement - 1968

Today - 1970.50

Long Term- 1971.75, 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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