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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #301 (permalink)
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Having seen 49.50-50.00 area break this morning, am expecting the composite LVN at 43-44 to be tested today in RTH. I am expecting this area to hold due to the HVN around 40 on the initial test and for price to move back to try and break 50 and then possibly 53 before any attempt to go south again.

I appear to be embed an image because I have a post count < 5 !!!

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Last edited by robster970; June 24th, 2014 at 06:13 AM.
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  #302 (permalink)
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robster970 View Post
Having seen 49.50-50.00 area break this morning, am expecting the composite LVN at 43-44 to be tested today in RTH. I am expecting this area to hold due to the HVN around 40 on the initial test and for price to move back to try and break 50 and then possibly 53 before any attempt to go south again.

I appear to be embed an image because I have a post count < 5 !!!

You'd better get posting more then Rob!

I'll look our for that area - thanks.

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  #303 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
You'd better get posting more then Rob!

I'll look our for that area - thanks.

LOL - here is no. 5 - shackles are free!

Seriously tho' it looks like this to me right now.

- Algo take price upto 60 on Sunday night and now it is drifting back to value
- It is alternating between HVN's and LVN's controlled by short term participants
- I see 44 as a line in the sand LVN but see it pushing into the 40 area where there is an HVN - current hypothesis is value will be found here but you know, hypothesis is just that....a hypothesis.
- If value is not found there, it will take out 38 LVN and try to find value at 32 or 34 HVN's where long term participants will step in.

There has to be a downside test for value shortly - look at the daily volume........no buyers up here.....

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  #304 (permalink)
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  #305 (permalink)
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LOL. Have we met before, you seem to know what I look like.....


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  #306 (permalink)
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Itchymoku View Post

lol - that's brilliant.... almost as good as the screaming sheep....


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  #307 (permalink)
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25th June



We took another visit to the high yesterday, ticked through it and sellers stepped in when we failed to maintain the high. So we are back into our potential range and potentially headed to 17.25 and 06.50 before turning back up. Of course after a sell off we can snap back, so basically if we don't see that snap back soon after the open, I'll be expecting us to complete the range downside.



In terms of the profile - we were expecting acceleration thru 46 down to 36. We were already in a good move down as we hit 46 yesterday and we didn't make it to 36. 36 could still act as support and I favor a slow grind down to 20 if it does not hold.



Here we can see the failure after 1 ticking the high. The Globex session is consolidating here. We could pop up to 46-48 area off the pit session open - if we do pop up and it holds that should be a good shorting opportunity as sellers should step in to push it down.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1939.75 -> 1960
Value 1948.50 -> 1959
S1 1932.25, R1 1965

Daily Numbers
Range - 1939.75 -> 1960
Value - 1947.50 -> 1959.25
Globex - 1940-> 1944.75

Today - 1946-1948, 1936

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #308 (permalink)
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26th July



Yesterday we said "We could pop up to 46-48 area off the pit session open - if we do pop up and it holds that should be a good shorting opportunity as sellers should step in to push it down."

We did stall at 46 and come off, then again at 48 but sellers really couldn't get any traction yesterday. My long term bias is still towards a range in the white box but possibly the high of the box should be 1960 - that won't be adjusted until we actually complete the range to the downside. So short term I'm neutral because we are now just above the white box/ the old breakout point of 47.50 and that puts us potentially back in a resistance becoming support situation which is more bullish. So again, I'm looking for this level to break down so we can get some momentum down to 17.25 and 06.50.



This week we have been saying how a break of 46 should lead to a move down to 36 where the top of the lower distribution is from last week (the red line). We fell short of that level. Next time down, we are more likely to push through it to 20's but I'm still putting it as a line in the sand.



We can see the first hour yesterday couldn't make it above 46. What is interesting is that we took a visit to the 46-48 area from above and now the Globex low is in that area too. So that's still a key area to me.

So shorts - below 46-48 with caution at 36. Longs above 47.50 ideally. In between, I'm not that keen.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1937.50 -> 1960
Value 1943.75 -> 1955.25
S1 1932.25, R1 1965

Daily Numbers
Range - 1937.50 (globex) -> 1953.25
Value - 1944.75 -> 1951.25
Globex - 1947.25 -> 1950.75

Today - 1946-1948, 1936

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #309 (permalink)
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27th July



We've spend most of the week rotating around the old high of 47.50. We have a potential range of 1936.25-1960 but I still think the larger range down to 1906.45 is in play.

It's the end of the month on Monday and we may just hang out up here till then and then start dropping back at the start of the next month.

This week, we'd been looking for support at 1936 and yesterday we hit 1936.25 before moving back up. Today I'll still be watching that area to see if we get support again. If not, then I think we'll grind to 20.



The weekly profile doesn't tell us much - a well, evenly distributed week that'll tend to churn in the middle. Value is well defined.



We did have a big drop and then a big push up yesterday but in perspective we really just extended the weeks range down a little. With this being Friday and not much high impact news, we could just see more rotation.

So I'm still expecting a breakdown to complete the larger range, this being the end of the month we may just hug the highs though. 36 is still interesting and a break of 36 would have me looking for 1920.

Of course being the end of the month there could be a 'window dressing' push up through the highs but that's down on my list of probabilities.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1936.25 -> 1960
Value 1943.50 -> 1954.25
S1 1932.25, R1 1965

Daily Numbers
Range - 1936.25 -> 1951.50 (pit) / 1952.50 (globex)
Value - 1939-> 1947.50
Globex - 1944.25 -> 1948.25

Today - 1946-1948, 1936-1937.25

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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  #310 (permalink)
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30th June



Last day of June. Sure felt like August....

On Friday we said

"It's the end of the month on Monday and we may just hang out up here till then and then start dropping back at the start of the next month. So I'm still expecting a breakdown to complete the larger range, this being the end of the month we may just hug the highs though. 36 is still interesting and a break of 36 would have me looking for 1920.

Of course being the end of the month there could be a 'window dressing' push up through the highs but that's down on my list of probabilities.
"

Where we are now 51.50 as at posting - it seems almost rude not to end the month on a little pop through the highs. Looking left, we've had a good churn around these prices, so a poke out above 1960 or below 1937.25, should bring a bit of volume.

Apart from that, nothing screaming out to me that is should go one way instead of the other right now but I would like to see low 1900s again.



Last week was very evenly distributed and between 1954 and 1942, we have a high probability of churn. As we get to the areas it spent less time, we should loosen up a bit but don't get caught into thinking that faster action means it's going to pop the range. I'd want a fair amount of cushion in a trade that was relying expanding last weeks range. So buying 1960 in anticipation of a breakout is off the table for me. Buying 1957 in anticipation of a breakout would be a bit safer.



Friday was interesting, we stayed within the overnight range for most of the day, then just broke out in the last hour. We have stayed above that breakout point in todays Globex session so far. So keep an eye on 1949.75-1950 into the open of the pit session.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1936.25 -> 1960
Value 1943.75 -> 1953.75
S1 1938.75, R1 1962.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1942.75 (globex) / 1943.75 (pit) -> 1954
Value - 1945.50 -> 1949.50
Globex - 1950.75 -> 1953.75

Today - 1949.75-1950, 1936-1937.25

Long Term- 1959.75, 1947.50, 1917.25, 1906.50, 1867.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1796

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