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DTs Pre Market Prep

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24th Feb



Here's a daily chart. To me this is just sideways action but I do see how there's an argument for us still being in an upwards channel.



The 2 hour chart really doesn't show us much more - as discussed last week - looking at the chop to the left, this area was always likely to give us more of the same. Still, it is the last week of the month. This month we started off at 1777.50 and had a low of 1732. So we've have a pretty good month. I am on the lookout for end of month "window dressing" for a potential Friday close above the current all time high of 1846.50.



The weekly profile shows us with a the bulk of volume last week in the 1831.50-> 1841.50 and a Globex session that traded mostly within that as of typing (3:45am EST). The 31.50-41.50 is where I expect it to be mostly choppy.



On a split globex/pit profile, we can see that we broke below Fridays lows and a tick below Thursdays Value low. It's not really giving me many clues because Friday and todays Globex so far have just tested the outer bounds of the choppy zone before going back in.

So basically, I'll be looking for rotation below 31.50 and above 41.50 unless we get a strong push out at which points both prices become a line in the sand for a continuation down/up respectively.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1817.25 -> 1844.50
Value - 1831.50 -> 1841.50
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832.75 -> 1844
Value - 1836.75 -> 1842.25
Globex - 1829.25 -> 1839.50


Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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25th Feb



Yesterday worked out quite well.

"So basically, I'll be looking for rotation below 31.50 and above 41.50 unless we get a strong push out at which points both prices become a line in the sand for a continuation down/up respectively."

We moved up to 41 at the open and built volume around that area, we then popped up 6 or 7 ticks and came back down to 41.25, held the volume area and shot up from there.

So will we keep these highs into the Friday/Month close? Yesterday we did get 10 points and change above the all time high but are now back below it in the Globex session/ It's normal after a decent push up to give some (or all) back the next day but I favour us keeping these highs till Friday or making more ground upwards.



Looking at the profiles, we can see that despite coming off the highs, we are still above the top of the "chop zone", so there's no reason to expect choppy action unless we dip below 41.50. Longs will want to stay above this area and if we do start chewing into it, I'd expect us to see a churn down to 31.50. We can see that as well as being the value high from last week, this area is also showing a single print on the weekly profile making that area more significant.



On the split globex/pit profiles, we can see the Globex session is very narrow so far (4:29 EST) and at the low end of yesterdays value area. Overnight inventory is short so far and off the open, longs will need to get this back within value. If that happens, I expect us to at least test the opposite end of yesterdays value range if not the high.

If we fail at yesterdays value low, then we'll be looking at the 41.50 then 31.50 scenario.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1817.25 -> 1844.50
Value - 1831.50 -> 1841.50
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1829.25 (globex)/ 1837 -> 1856.75
Value - 1845 -> 1855
Globex - 1841.50 -> 1846.75


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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26th Feb



Yesterday my expectation was that if we broke 41.50 to the downside, then we'd probably see 31.50. We did break 41.50 and we did get some volume above to lean on for a short but we only got down as low as 37.25. A tick above Mondays pit session low.

I also thought that if lows held we'd see a run to Mondays VAH of 1855 - and we didn't see that either!

Looking at the 2 hour chart there is still an argument for channeling upwards.



On the weekly profile, we can see it's quite elongated but the most trading activity around 1845. We can see that most trading is also above the 31.50-41.50 chop zone. So I'm still looking at that area as a place to hold for upside.



As we can see in the split globex/pit profiles. Yesterdays pit session low was about where Mondays pit session low was. Once we'd held that we did work into Mondays value area but we came off again. Not a bad day in terms of range but not great in terms of playing off key areas.

Globex is almost 100% long, so the chance of a sell off from the open is decent - as long as we stay above 1846 for the rest of the Globex session.

In terms of areas to play off. Upside really is just Globex high and Mondays high. The weekly profile is a bit elongated so I don't trust this weeks Value high that much yet.

I'll consider a move down to bounce off yesterdays VAH 1847.50 to be pretty bullish.

If we get lower to the VAL of 1841, then I'll not be looking for us to make 47.50 and maybe 1851 but not rush to a new high. I'd consider that to be a sign we'll stay within Mondays range again. We could well be just building volume here/accepting new prices before we have another leg up.

All eyes on the Month end on Friday.

Obviously - if we go straight up off the open, that will be very bullish as long as we don't stop at the Globex high.

Home sales at 10:00am too, just to keep it interesting.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1856.75
Value - 1839.75 -> 1852.75
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1837.25 -> 1851
Value - 1841 -> 1847.50
Globex - 1846.25 -> 1853.25


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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27th Feb



The longer term chart is still not showing signs of a reversal but we can see that below us if the 1837-1838 level breaks, it'll look a lot more bearish. To the upside, we have a level at 1853 - so a fairly narrow band of "lines in the sand" either side.



On the weekly volume profile, value is from 1841 -> 1851.50 - which is just inside the range marked out above. It's fairly common to go sideways after a push up. On the other hand, it's always better if we actually clear the prior price range before moving sideways. As such, I am seeing this push up to 1856 more as range extension than the start of a new trend. That means a move back down to 1806.25 if this is the case. Still - we could break either way.



Yesterday we had

"If we get lower to the VAL of 1841, then I'll not be looking for us to make 47.50 and maybe 1851 but not rush to a new high. I'd consider that to be a sign we'll stay within Mondays range again. We could well be just building volume here/accepting new prices before we have another leg up. "

We got down to 1840.25 - 3 ticks below the VAL, then to 1851 before moving down to 1838, 3 ticks above Tuesday pit session low.

So we are just rotating around the same area. The globex session so far is within yesterdays range. So again today, I'll be looking for a bounce off a value area to take us to the opposite side of the range. If either side of value breaks, I'll look for a retrace back to value but with an eye on yesterdays high/low as a potential hurdle.

We need to break out at some point - it could be tomorrow for an end of month push up but today I'm just looking for signs of a break either side.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1856.75
Value - 1841 -> 1851.50
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1838 -> 1851 (pit)/1853.25 (globex)
Value - 1842.25 -> 1850.25
Globex - 1841.25 -> 1847


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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28th February



End of the month today. As of now, we have poked out above the old high of 1846.50 again. We are in a sideways pattern and have been all week. With the end of the month today, there's a reasonable expectation we'll have a pop up. Certainly looking at the above, there's no bearish signs yet.



Looking at this weeks profile so far. its very evenly distributed as we'd expect when the markets been in a range.



Yesterday we got as low as Wednesdays low before reversing up. The globex session has moved up to 1855.75 now so in theory we are at the top of the range and be looking to move down. Saying that the range wont last forever and this is the last day of the month. For upside, I'll be looking at a bounce off yesterdays VAL 1844.25 or the Globex low 1849.

We do have a lot of news today - 8:30, 9:45, 9:55, 10:00 - so if the bounce off value occurs in the first 30 mins, it might be hard to hold onto a trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1856.75
Value - 1841 -> 1853
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832.75 (globex)/ 1838.50 -> 1854.25 (globex)
Value - 1844.25 -> 1852.75
Globex - 1849 -> 1855.75


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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3rd March



Right from the start of last week, we had our eyes on a push up into Friday which was also the end of February. We often get these "window dressing" pushes up into month ends. That tends to happen more often when we are already close to the highs.

So with that done, are we now due a correction downwards? If last week was "window dressing" is there reason for more upside this week? Looking at the breakout from the 1846.50 area, there hasn't been a clean break yet. Right from the moment we broke upside, we couldn't stay above the old range. Whilst the upside is still a possibility,I'll be looking for signs that downside levels are breaking for a potential trip down to 1806.25 and possibly all the way down to 1730.25.



The weekly profile shows us just below value for last week. If we do head up, it's likely to be a churn up to 1850 area. The first line in the sand at the pit session open will be last weeks value low. If we can't get back into value, then chances are sellers will step in to push it down. A hurdle to the downside is last weeks low and if that breaks, it strengthens the case for the low 1800's.



Thursdays globex low was 1832.75, so that's a level to keep an eye on. We can see we have gapped down overnight and so we do have to consider the fact that overnight inventory is very short and we could well see a snap back up at the open. Above us 1845.25 is Fridays low, so if we do move up and that is rejected, again we should see sellers step in.

So play it by ear, I think it wont take much for the market to get bearish and I think the reaction off the open will be interesting. In fact, there's an argument that either side could get active if they see it move their way off the open - bulls seeing upside in closing the gap and bears seeing downside in being able to make up any ground. So there is an argument for going with the first move.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1866.50
Value - 1840.50 -> 1854
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1845.25 -> 1866.50
Value - 1856.25 -> 1866.25
Globex - 1835.75 -> 1847.00


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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4th March



Well, the ES is not giving up on these highs so easily. I am in the same frame of mind as at yesterdays prep...

Right from the start of last week, we had our eyes on a push up into Friday which was also the end of February. We often get these "window dressing" pushes up into month ends. That tends to happen more often when we are already close to the highs.

So with that done, are we now due a correction downwards? If last week was "window dressing" is there reason for more upside this week? Looking at the breakout from the 1846.50 area, there hasn't been a clean break yet. Right from the moment we broke upside, we couldn't stay above the old range. Whilst the upside is still a possibility,I'll be looking for signs that downside levels are breaking for a potential trip down to 1806.25 and possibly all the way down to 1730.25.


I still see no strong evidence pointing either way. So looking for areas that might give a clue.



We have had a big push up overnight - basically taking back all the ground we lost in the big gap down on Sunday. On a weekly perspective, we need to hold above the value high of last week of 1854. If we don't, then I think we'll work our way down to the value low at 1840.50. We need to stay above last weeks value or we risk traversing it to the other side.



You can't see it on the above chart but yesterday... Thursdays globex low was 1832.75, so that's a level to keep an eye on

We actually got to 32.25 before turning back up. I we get back there today, it would be an odd place to stop again or even to get there. I'm leaving the 32.75 from out long term numbers unchanged as it's around the same area.

In terms of numbers - we are so far off yesterdays range that yesterdays high of 49.50 is a way off. So unless we return to yesterdays range or the top of last weeks value 1854 - I think it's a matter of letting value develop intraday and playing off that.

Note also that yesterday was very illiquid with depth in the low hundreds a lot of the time. Stops had to be widened yesterday because of the extra volatility. So watch out for that again today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1866.50
Value - 1840.50 -> 1854
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1849.50
Value - 1838.75 -> 1845.25
Globex - 1842.75 -> 1865.00

Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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5th March



Another push up yesterday. It would be good for us to stay above the old 46.50 high now and not cross back over it - otherwise I'm still a bit wary of this push up.

A test and hold of 55.75 or even 66.50 would be bullish. We could of course start ranging 1832-1870/80 but again I'd like to see a clean break before I start looking at a new range. If not then any potential range low is still 1806.25 and potentially as low as 1730.




Just below those 2 points is the value high from last week at 1854. As per yesterday, I see us going back to 1840 if that breaks. This week we have moved up, put in a little range, then moved up again, so from that perspective this is trending behavior which points upside.



On the split globex/pit profiles, we can see that we have popped out of the Feb high of 1866.50 which is 2 ticks above Mondays high. Yesterdays VAL is 1866.75 - so there should be eyes on this level as we head into todays pit session. I don't have anything above us other than the globex high.

So I'm looking for 66.50 to hold for more upside. If that breaks the next area is the 54-55.75 area. So if we get to these I have a line in the sand. If we go straight up, then I have to focus on the areas that develop intraday and try to play off them.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1874.75
Value - 1835.25 -> 1862.25
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1842.75 (globex)/1862.25 (pit) -> 1874.75
Value - 1866.75 -> 1871.75
Globex - 1867.75 -> 1873.25

Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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6th March



Very low volume yesterday, just under 1.3M and a low range day too. Unemployment at 8:30am might help shake things up a bit. We are still moving up but as yet we've had no decent downside tests. As per yesterday "A test and hold of 55.75 or even 66.50 would be bullish".

We are churning up, we are trading in uncharted waters. I was asked on Tuesday what I'd have as an upside target and really I don't have one and I do not plan to fade these highs. I Seeing us move down to 66.50 and hold would give me a good trade as I'd have some upside expectation. Right now there's not much but developing intraday areas to trade off for me and with the range being low, that doesn't leave much on the table.



We are building some volume at the highs but these are low volume days. I see the bottom of this bulge at the high - 1867 as a line in the sand. That's just above our 66.50 line mentioned above. If that breaks I can see us heading to the bottom bulge at 1850.



In terms of intraday levels. We have yesterdays low and value low around the same area. So for me - it's waiting for a test and if there's no test I'll be looking for smaller trades off the profile.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1877.75
Value - 1843.50 -> 1877.25
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1867.75 (globex)/1869.25 (pit) -> 1875.50
Value - 1866.75 -> 1871.75
Globex - 1870.50 -> 1873.50

Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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7th March



Volume was low again yesterday, as was the range. We do have unemployment at 8:30 am but otherwise it's shaping up to be another lackluster day.



We have been trading mostly above 1867, so if that breaks we could easily see 1850. I don't expect much from an upside break because they have all been very weak this week.



Later yesterday, we had a downside test of Wednesdays VAH. It came a little late in the day but it's worth watching this area again. We look set to open within yesterdays value area, so a fade of either side if we have another slow start is a possibility.

Still - I really don't expect much unless the news helps us out.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1881.00
Value - 1844.50 -> 1881.00
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1871 (globex)/1873.75 (pit) -> 1881
Value - 1876.25 -> 1880.25
Globex - 1875.50 -> 1880.25

Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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10th March

We should start rolling over to June contract this week. It's always worth keeping an eye on volumes for both and then moving to June contract when the volume moves there.



We are back down to the break out point 1866.50. That's a line in the sand for us with 1856.75 & 1846.50 below that which are also potential points of support. 56.75 is a minor level so if 66.50 breaks I'll be short biased with 46.50 as a target but wary of 56.75 holding.



The Globex session has so far mostly kept in the upper distribution area from last week which has a lot of 1867. So the 66.50 area significance is backed up by this. Also - looking at the profile, it does look like we have a clear run down to 1850 if the 66.50 area breaks.



On the split globex/pit profiles, we can see that Friday we had a down day following consolidation at the highs. IT seems unlikely we'll hit Fridays high but the Value high at 1877.75 is acheivable and it would be good to see that tested. If buyers step in at that point, then it makes a stronger case to the downside, especially if we then break the value low at 71.75.

On the other hand we are set to open in Fridays Value Area, so a downside test to 71.75 and buyers jumping in could see us make back the lost ground from Friday.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1887.50
Value - 1846.25 -> 1887.25
S1 - 1844.25, R1 - 1899.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1869.25 -> 1884.75 (pit) / 1887.50 (globex)
Value - 1871.75-> 1877.75
Globex - 1867.75 -> 1878.75

Other - 1866.50, 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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11th March



From a longer term perspective, we are pretty much where we were yesterday.

We are back down to the break out point 1866.50. That's a line in the sand for us with 1856.75 & 1846.50 below that which are also potential points of support. 56.75 is a minor level so if 66.50 breaks I'll be short biased with 46.50 as a target but wary of 56.75 holding.

We poked through 66.50 by 3 ticks but couldn't hold below it.



Unsurprisingly, we have a similar story on the weekly profile. We dipped below the upper distribution on the profile but we are now back above it and in the Globex we have been up to 1879, which is just below the top of that upper distribution. The 1880 level is also a line in the sand. For upside continuation.



In yesterdays pit session, we made it 2 ticks short of Fridays VAH, then went down and poked through the 66.50 area. The VAH was an area we could expect sellers to jump in and the 66.50 are was an area we could expect buyers to jump in. In both cases they did but in both cases it appears it was just short term money playing to the other end of the range.

So today, we are about where we were going into yesterday. A balanced market. We will look to see if yesterdays value area gives us a clue, if not 1880 and 1866.50-1867 are the major lines in the sand either side.

Globex range is pretty small today, so I feel a move up to 1880 has more potential for causing acceleration than a grind down to 1866.50

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1887.50
Value - 1846.25 -> 1887.25
S1 - 1844.25, R1 - 1899.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1865.75 -> 1877.75 (pit) -> 1878.75 (globex)
Value - 1870.00 -> 1874
Globex - 1873.75 -> 1879

Other - 1866.50, 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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12th March



Yesterday we did take a poke up above the 1880 level we were looking at but then sellers stepped in and we pushed through the 1866.50 level. In the Globex session so far (5am EST) that 1866.50 is providing resistance. If that continues into the day session, I see us getting to 1850.

We do have a minor level at 1856.75, and we do have this upward channel people are looking at too. The next major level of potential support below us is 46.50.



We can see we tested the upside of the bulge in the profile from last week but there were no buyers up there. We could not hold the bottom, so my most likely scenario now is to go to that lower distribution adound 1850.



We can see the failure through the 1880 here. The Globex session has stayed below 1866.50 so far and that is a major level and it will be bullish if we stay below that line. In fact, that might mean we have an interesting day despite the lack of news.

The Globex range is fairly small so far. Off the open, I'll be looking for 66.50 to hold and if it doesn't and we go upside, I expect a churn to the upside. On the other hand, if we do go down, I think we have the potential for sellers to put in a decent run.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 1861.00 -> 1882.25
Value - 1869.50 -> 1878.50
S1 - 1844.25, R1 - 1899.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1863 -> 1882.25
Value - 1865.75 -> 1876.75
Globex - 1861 -> 1866.50

Other - 1866.50, 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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No prep for me today & tomorrow - it's rollover, so I wont be trading.

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17th March

Back again. Note this is an early prep today - 3:30am EST.

I have rolled into the 06 contract now so all the levels have been adjusted to the new contract. So if you have the old levels on your charts, replace with the ones below.



Big picture is we are currently in either a retrace in an uptrend OR we just saw a range extension and we'll carry on down now to the bottom of the range before turning up to the top again. The bottom of the range could be any major level down to 1725. Even at 1725, I wouldn't see us as being in a down trend - that's only back to 5th Feb low.



Zooming in a but we can see the major lows with the red, orange, yellow arrows and the 1725 low at the bottom. Looking left, there's a case for us having already hit a range low and that we could now be back up to the 1880s. So for me it's key to see if we can stay above 1825.25 this week, then get through 1839.50 at which point, we should really run for the highs.



We started out in the Globex session dipping below last weeks range and below the bulk of the lower distribution on last weeks profile. We can see above that lower distribution we have a single print at 1846.50 - that's a line in the sand for any move up. In the Globex session we have so far made it as high as 1837.25 - so it's got to just underneath the bulk of that lower distribution. If we can break 37.25, I suspect it'll grind to 46.50. If we can get above that, we should be able to get to 55 with little resistance.

To the downside, I can see us making decent headway if we can get back through the Globex lows - but then it's a matter of looking @ the 2 hour chart for clues, not the profile.



On Friday, there was still a fair amount of activity in the March contract. We have a value low at 1836 which has been pierced in the Globex session but we haven't managed to hold it yet. It's worth watching this level from the open whichever side of it we open on. Other than that it's not telling us much.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1875.25
Value 1847.50 -> 1874.50
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1846.25
Value - 1836 -> 1843.50
Globex - 1823.50 -> 1837.25

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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 alejo 
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DionysusToast View Post
17th March

Back again. Note this is an early prep today - 3:30am EST.

I have rolled into the 06 contract now so all the levels have been adjusted to the new contract. So if you have the old levels on your charts, replace with the ones below.



Big picture is we are currently in either a retrace in an uptrend OR we just saw a range extension and we'll carry on down now to the bottom of the range before turning up to the top again. The bottom of the range could be any major level down to 1725. Even at 1725, I wouldn't see us as being in a down trend - that's only back to 5th Feb low.



Zooming in a but we can see the major lows with the red, orange, yellow arrows and the 1725 low at the bottom. Looking left, there's a case for us having already hit a range low and that we could now be back up to the 1880s. So for me it's key to see if we can stay above 1825.25 this week, then get through 1839.50 at which point, we should really run for the highs.



We started out in the Globex session dipping below last weeks range and below the bulk of the lower distribution on last weeks profile. We can see above that lower distribution we have a single print at 1846.50 - that's a line in the sand for any move up. In the Globex session we have so far made it as high as 1837.25 - so it's got to just underneath the bulk of that lower distribution. If we can break 37.25, I suspect it'll grind to 46.50. If we can get above that, we should be able to get to 55 with little resistance.

To the downside, I can see us making decent headway if we can get back through the Globex lows - but then it's a matter of looking @ the 2 hour chart for clues, not the profile.



On Friday, there was still a fair amount of activity in the March contract. We have a value low at 1836 which has been pierced in the Globex session but we haven't managed to hold it yet. It's worth watching this level from the open whichever side of it we open on. Other than that it's not telling us much.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1875.25
Value 1847.50 -> 1874.50
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1846.25
Value - 1836 -> 1843.50
Globex - 1823.50 -> 1837.25

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

thanks peter, you were right, "If we can break 37.25, I suspect it'll grind to 46.50"
10 points in 30 min well done

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alejo View Post
thanks peter, you were right, "If we can break 37.25, I suspect it'll grind to 46.50"
10 points in 30 min well done

be even nicer if it waited till 9:30am EST when I actually start trading...

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18th March



We moved up yesterday, and that does have me thinking the red arrows are the most likely scenario. We have had a reaction off the 1859.50 level so far but that doesn't mean we'll head back down. So I'm still looking for the red arrow scenario and have the yellow arrow as a third. Of course if we can't get through 59.50 or we poke through and roll over, then I'll be short & looking for 1825.25 and below.



We can see on the weekly profile that we are now heading into the upper distribution from last week. That could mean we'll move up through it slowly but looking left, there's not a major chop zone there yet. We do have the potential to roll over at 1870.75 and we could range 55-70.75 before pushing up through 1880.



Yesterday in the pit session we first took a dip into Fridays value high but that was rejected, then later we came down to test Fridays high. So a bullish day. The Globex session today is pretty flat, we have traded above Mondays high and below Mondays value area. So from now, I'd like to see Mondays value high 1853.50 hold if not the 1849 area. Even down to 1842 Mondays low, it really wouldn't be that bearish.

So I'm bullish right now, hoping for a test of a key level from Monday and to see buyers step in. I'll not be on the bear until we break yesterdays low.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1875.25
Value 1847.50 -> 1874.50
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1823.50 (globex)/1842.75 -> 1855.75
Value - 1849 -> 1853.50
Globex - 1845.50 -> 1859.50

Numbers just for today: 1855, 1870.75 - minor lines in the sand

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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19th March

FOMC day today - so will likely be quiet till then.



As per yesterday, I'm still biased towards a test of the highs up at 1880. Looking above, we have the 1859.50 line which got tested intraday yesterday. I'm bullish anywhere above that point.



The weekly profile is showing classic trending behaviour - move up, consolidate, move up, consolidate - with decent gaps between the consolidation areas. We still have the top of the upper distribution at 1870 to get through and as per yesterday "We do have the potential to roll over at 1870.75 and we could range 55-70.75 before pushing up through 1880"



We can see a nice push up yesterday and then todays Globex session is narrow & within yesterdays value area, not a shock being FOMC day but this is an early prep: 5:45am EST. I'll be looking for a test of value initially.

Yesterdays value area is quite narrow, so I probably won't play a short off an upside test but I think a long off a downside reference is good as we still have plenty of momentum upwards.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1823.50 -> 1876
Value 1845.25 -> 1866.25
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1845.50 (globex)/1852.75 -> 1867
Value - 1860.75 -> 1865.75
Globex - 1861 -> 1865.25

Numbers just for today: 1855, 1870.75 - minor lines in the sand

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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20th March



FOMC statement was warmly received yesterday, nice 20 point drop. So that means we have broken the 1859.50 area we were leaning on for more upside and now looking to see if 39.50 or 25.25 hold for more upside.



On the weekly profile we can see a bulge from 46->54 which is partly the Globex session and partly Mondays activity. I'm writing this at 8am and it's possible the 8:30 Unemployment claims shake us out of this or home sales/Philly Manuf at 10am.

My 2 favored scenarios today are:
1 - Snap back up and take back most of what we lost yesterday
2 - range 46-54 area at these lows

If we do break 46 to the downside then I think we'll see 39.50 and possibly 25.25.



Yesterday started with us pushing a tick through Tuesdays pit session high and then staying in a 4 point range into the FOMC statement. Globex has so far kept yesterays low but interestingly has not managed to get into yesterdays value area. Those value areas tend to be less meaningful on elongated days anyway - but yesterdays VAL is certainly a point of interest going into today and rejection will be good for shorts.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1823.50 -> 1867.25
Value 1846 -> 1865
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1842 -> 1867.25 (pit)/ 1876.50 (globex)
Value - 1854.25 -> 1866.75
Globex - 1844.75 -> 1853.75

Numbers just for today: 1846, 1854 - minor lines in the sand

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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Hi Peter,

I have a few questions for you regarding liquidity. Hope it's ok to ask them in your prep thread.

Liquidity is only something i've been keeping an eye on for about the last 2 months or so. I tend to find that as the liquidity drops the market becomes more slippery. This is no big surprise since it would be easier to push the market around by a few extra ticks here and there.

I have a few rules regarding my position sizing as it relates to liquidity (talking about ES):
- If the DOM is generally over 1000 per level ill trade full size
- If the DOM is generally between 600 - 1000 per level ill trade half size
- If the DOM is generally less than 600 I wont trade (another approach would of course be to increase stop size,..but I chose not to trade)

So the basic idea is that when there is the potential for the market to be very slippery, I want to reduce or completely remove risk (dont trade).

However going over my stats, im not sure these rules are having the desired effect, and that perhaps im being too conservative. What i've noticed is that often at the point of entry liquidity might not be great, so ill enter half size. Then, once the trade starts moving in my direction liquidity will increase, the levels will all thicken up and the trade will run to target on what would have been a great opportunity to have full size on. But the liquidity wasn't good enough at the point of entry.

- How do you determine if the market is slippery? Purely on the DOM or are there other things you look for?

- Out of the last 16 trades, i've only traded full size 5 times. Im starting to think im being too conservative. 600 per level seems to be fine judging both by the price action and my results. Do you have a certain threshold below which you will reduce size or increase stop size?

- In your opinion has liquidity in general dropped over the last month or 2? Or has it been about normal?

Many thanks.

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DarkPoolTrading View Post
Hi Peter,

I have a few questions for you regarding liquidity. Hope it's ok to ask them in your prep thread.

Liquidity is only something i've been keeping an eye on for about the last 2 months or so. I tend to find that as the liquidity drops the market becomes more slippery. This is no big surprise since it would be easier to push the market around by a few extra ticks here and there.

I have a few rules regarding my position sizing as it relates to liquidity (talking about ES):
- If the DOM is generally over 1000 per level ill trade full size
- If the DOM is generally between 600 - 1000 per level ill trade half size
- If the DOM is generally less than 600 I wont trade (another approach would of course be to increase stop size,..but I chose not to trade)

So the basic idea is that when there is the potential for the market to be very slippery, I want to reduce or completely remove risk (dont trade).

However going over my stats, im not sure these rules are having the desired effect, and that perhaps im being too conservative. What i've noticed is that often at the point of entry liquidity might not be great, so ill enter half size. Then, once the trade starts moving in my direction liquidity will increase, the levels will all thicken up and the trade will run to target on what would have been a great opportunity to have full size on. But the liquidity wasn't good enough at the point of entry.

- How do you determine if the market is slippery? Purely on the DOM or are there other things you look for?

- Out of the last 16 trades, i've only traded full size 5 times. Im starting to think im being too conservative. 600 per level seems to be fine judging both by the price action and my results. Do you have a certain threshold below which you will reduce size or increase stop size?

- In your opinion has liquidity in general dropped over the last month or 2? Or has it been about normal?

Many thanks.

Let me come back to this on Monday - I'm overloaded today!

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21st March



We are close to the all time highs. I'm on the lookout for a push to the high and then to see if there's any buyers up there for a push to 1900. If we poke through the highs and roll down, I'll be looking for 1859.50 then 39.50 and 25.25.



As you can see we have multiple distributions on the profile, the one directly below us is 61.50->66.50. If 66.50 breaks, I expect to see a churn to 61.50. At that point the bulls really need the market to hold or we could see 55 and then eating into the lower distribution. A bounce off 66.50 will be very bullish.



Yesterday we had:

"My 2 favored scenarios today are:
1 - Snap back up and take back most of what we lost yesterday
2 - range 46-54 area at these lows
"

What we got was a push down to 46.25 and then the snap back up to within a tick of Wednesdays pit session high.

Todays Globex session is mostly long and we are above yesterdays value high. So off the open, I'll be looking for that value high to hold which is 1866.25 - coinciding with the 66.50 number.

So a fairly well defined day ahead.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1823.50 -> 1872.50
Value 1848 -> 1867
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1844.75 (globex) -> 1856.25 (pit)/ 1866.50 (globex)
Value - 1856.25 -> 1866.25
Globex - 1862.75 -> 1872.50

Numbers just for today: 1861.50, 1866.50- minor lines in the sand

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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24th March

End of the month Friday. So we may well hover here for a push through the high to end the month....



We are potentially done with the retest of the high having failed to get there on Friday. I'll be short biased below 59.50 and long biased above. My downside target would be 1839.50 & possibly 1825.25. Still - there is that end of the month thing and some people will be looking at the channel above and staying bullish if that is maintained.



Looking at the weekly profiles, we can see we are in the middle of 2 distributions. If we break 66.75 to the upside there's not much stopping us getting to 1880s again. If we break 53.50 downside, I see a more leisurely churn down to 46.



On the split globex/pit profiles, we can see how sellers came in on Friday after failing to reach the high - not a big shock. We could easily make that back today. We can see that the Globex session has so far failed to make new lows, so we could be in for an initial pop up off the open.

So 59.50 is pivotal. I think today is hard to call prior to the open but I think it'll at least give us a hint of how the end of the month will play out.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1823.50 -> 1876.75
Value 1847.50 -> 1867
S1 - 181840.50, R1 - 1875.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1855.50 -> 1876.75
Value - 1861.25-> 1876.75
Globex - 1855 -> 1864.50

Numbers just for today: 1853.50, 1866.75

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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25th March



I think that covers all eventualities!

Yesterday we had: "We are potentially done with the retest of the high having failed to get there on Friday. I'll be short biased below 59.50 and long biased above. My downside target would be 1839.50 & possibly 1825.25."

But I was not expecting the 39.50 level to be hit in one day. I was expecting it to take a couple of days. Looking back on a daily chart though we have had a number of 20+ point days of late. In fact that makes 6 days with a 20+ point range, so my bad for not taking that into account.

So now we got close to the 39.50 level have we failed to get there just like we failed to get to the highs or are we now going to run through it to 25.25 and possibly lower? Well I don't know but if we do get a test of 39.50 today and it holds, then we should be good to 59.50 and possibly 80 again. Although probably not in one day...



I still have my eye on the areas with more activity last week. So will also be looking at 45.75 and 66.75 as minor lines in the sand where we could turn around.



And here we can see the past 3 days and how big they have been. There is an overall lack of liquidity with only 500 contracts or less per level much of the time. I was quite encouraged by the initial pop up yesterday and it took me a while to get the bias right, so a slap on the wrists for me not following my own rules.

We can that after the push down, we managed to retrace back to 1854.75 before the close, so that area is worth watching too.

Into the open, I'll be watching yesterdays value area and 45.75 to see if buyers jump in. The Globex session looks fairly neutral to me and I have no real bias going into today. We have been having long down days followed by long up days so there could be a lot of people looking out for that and of course, that expectation could be the very thing that forces us down another 20 points.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1823.50 -> 1876.75
Value 1847.50 -> 1867
S1 - 181840.50, R1 - 1875.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1841.25 -> 1866.00
Value - 1843.25 -> 1853.75
Globex - 1848 -> 1864.50

Numbers just for today: 1845.75, 1854.75, 1866.75

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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DarkPoolTrading View Post
Hi Peter,

I have a few questions for you regarding liquidity. Hope it's ok to ask them in your prep thread.

Liquidity is only something i've been keeping an eye on for about the last 2 months or so. I tend to find that as the liquidity drops the market becomes more slippery. This is no big surprise since it would be easier to push the market around by a few extra ticks here and there.

I have a few rules regarding my position sizing as it relates to liquidity (talking about ES):
- If the DOM is generally over 1000 per level ill trade full size
- If the DOM is generally between 600 - 1000 per level ill trade half size
- If the DOM is generally less than 600 I wont trade (another approach would of course be to increase stop size,..but I chose not to trade)

So the basic idea is that when there is the potential for the market to be very slippery, I want to reduce or completely remove risk (dont trade).

However going over my stats, im not sure these rules are having the desired effect, and that perhaps im being too conservative. What i've noticed is that often at the point of entry liquidity might not be great, so ill enter half size. Then, once the trade starts moving in my direction liquidity will increase, the levels will all thicken up and the trade will run to target on what would have been a great opportunity to have full size on. But the liquidity wasn't good enough at the point of entry.

- How do you determine if the market is slippery? Purely on the DOM or are there other things you look for?

- Out of the last 16 trades, i've only traded full size 5 times. Im starting to think im being too conservative. 600 per level seems to be fine judging both by the price action and my results. Do you have a certain threshold below which you will reduce size or increase stop size?

- In your opinion has liquidity in general dropped over the last month or 2? Or has it been about normal?

Many thanks.

Liquidity has been low in the past few months.

As a rule of thumb, the liquidity will thicken up on the offer side as you move towards 'agreed upon' resistance - in other word a level of resistance lots of people are looking at. Similarly the bids will thicken up as you move down to agreed upon support.

In the past week, we've seen some decent ranges but prior to that we've have fairly low liquidity without the benefit of any additional daily range.

In your case, I think you are right to adjust for this liduidity but I'd say it also depends on how much room you gave trades before. This market can slip 3-4 ticks in a second because of this lack of liquidity so tight (4 or less ticks) stops can see you fall victim to this even when you are right.

For those days with low liquidity but not real increase in range, I'd say that you don't stand to benefit from the range but you are still more likely to be suffering from increase MAE. Are you able to track MAE for these trades and see if the extra breathing room paid off, even if you got not additional move for your trouble?

For me I like to see 1000+ for a normal day. When it gets down to the 500's - I'm more very cautious for a regular pullback but you can still see absorption at levels and a price to lean on. It just doesn't happen as often. Momentum entries are trickier in these conditions.

When it gets below the 500s on average - I usually go do something else but again you will occasionally see someone step up. It's just that you can't rely on reading the pullbacks as well in that environment. You have to be more selective and pass on more trades.

Let me know about the MAE.

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DionysusToast View Post
Liquidity has been low in the past few months.

As a rule of thumb, the liquidity will thicken up on the offer side as you move towards 'agreed upon' resistance - in other word a level of resistance lots of people are looking at. Similarly the bids will thicken up as you move down to agreed upon support.

In the past week, we've seen some decent ranges but prior to that we've have fairly low liquidity without the benefit of any additional daily range.

In your case, I think you are right to adjust for this liduidity but I'd say it also depends on how much room you gave trades before. This market can slip 3-4 ticks in a second because of this lack of liquidity so tight (4 or less ticks) stops can see you fall victim to this even when you are right.

For those days with low liquidity but not real increase in range, I'd say that you don't stand to benefit from the range but you are still more likely to be suffering from increase MAE. Are you able to track MAE for these trades and see if the extra breathing room paid off, even if you got not additional move for your trouble?

For me I like to see 1000+ for a normal day. When it gets down to the 500's - I'm more very cautious for a regular pullback but you can still see absorption at levels and a price to lean on. It just doesn't happen as often. Momentum entries are trickier in these conditions.

When it gets below the 500s on average - I usually go do something else but again you will occasionally see someone step up. It's just that you can't rely on reading the pullbacks as well in that environment. You have to be more selective and pass on more trades.

Let me know about the MAE.

Thanks Peter,

Ok, interesting to hear that liquidity has been lower than usual lately. This is only something i've been keeping an eye on recently which is why I wasn't sure if this was normal.

Below are 11 trades which I traded 50% size because of low liquidity:
Continuation / momentum trades:
- MAE: -3
- MAE: -5
- MAE: -1
- MAE: -7
- MAE: -9 (this was me breaking my rules and increasing my stop size by 1 tick. Got stopped out anyway!)
- MAE: -6
- MAE: -1
- MAE: -3
- MAE: -8

Reversal trades:
- MAE: -1
- MAE: 0

I will need to go back and look what the range on the day was like for each of the above trades.

As I mentioned in my question, I reduce my size if liquidity is generally between 600 - 1000. Above that, ill trade full size. However after looking at my stats I think I need to adjust to the low liquidity environment as you said which means im likely being too conservative at the moment.

My stop is 8 ticks, which im starting to think warrants trading full size provided liquidity doesn't get ridiculously low like below 500 - 600. As you said, then it's probably best to go do something else.

Thanks again for the reply. Food for thought.

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I'd say there needs to be more adjustment if you have a 4 tick stop than an 8. It sounds like you are still "in tolerance" of that 8 tick stop with this volatility. Maybe a little more conservative but not like half or quarter size.

Tight stops would be getting murdered now because as you have no doubt seen, it can just whip 3 ticks in a second which is rare when it's more liquid. Saying that, it doesn't just whip 8 against you.

Let me know how you get on.

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26th March



Yesterday was a tough one for my style. I mentioned this to a (fairly large) prop trader I know (picture me as young Luke and this guy my Yoda). He puts it down to all the "minor" levels we've created over the past week and how it's created a lot of different areas to play off. So the white lines above are more local areas I'd not normally play off. I still wont be playing off them today but am just going to be more wary in this area.



Yesterday we had

"I still have my eye on the areas with more activity last week. So will also be looking at 45.75 and 66.75 as minor lines in the sand where we could turn around."

Now I'm more thinking that 45.75-66.75 will be an area where it's going to be choppy and rough trading.



Yesterday was interesting. An initial push up off the open with a huge step created in the profile @ 61.50 - that was a 'gimme' trade but there was no immediate follow through. After the 10am news, we had the usual post news volatility but it then calmed down came do 1862 and seemed to be holding there. Then - just a few minutes after the news, the market dropped about 2.5-3 points in one swoop - it was rapid to the point I thought I'd missed a major news event.

We did end up retesting the Globex low yesterday before moving back up and whilst it was a slow start we still had a pretty healthy range.

Globex action today so far has been mostly above the close, so slightly bullish. We have so far been mostly above yesterdays value and above the 59.50 level - I'm still bullish above there but considering all the crosses over that level, it's becoming less important.

I could see us bouncing off one of yesterdays levels but I think we really need to get out of this 45.75-66.75 area for any clean moves.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1841.25 -> 1866
Value 1850.75 -> 1862.75
S1 - 1840.50, R1 - 1875.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1848 -> 1864.50
Value - 1852.25 -> 1860.75
Globex - 1858.25 -> 1862.75

Numbers just for today: 1854.75, 1866.75

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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27th March



Now we are at the bottom of the chop zone again. There's been lots of emails flying around about how this action is the start of a major down move. I'm still neutral on the overall outcome. South of where we are now & below 39.25, we should move more freely but if you look to the left we did chop around there too in February in the 39.25-25.25 area.



Yesterday we had:


"I still have my eye on the areas with more activity last week. So will also be looking at 45.75 and 66.75 as minor lines in the sand where we could turn around.

Now I'm more thinking that 45.75-66.75 will be an area where it's going to be choppy and rough trading
."

And we can see that now we've started to spend some time below 45.75, so I'd personally like to see that hold for a move downwards, I feel we'll have cleaner moves. If we do head up, then I expect it to be harder trading all the way to 1866.75.



As someone that only trades the AM sessions, pictures like this always make me weep. We can see the push up through the Globex high failed and then we spent some time chopping around 1860-1864 before taking a dive in the PM. The Globex session is long so far but not overly so. If we can keep above yesterdays close into todays open, we have a case for an initial reaction down which could have some follow through if we hit yesterdays low.

I want downside basically because I feel it will be a better trade. If it moves up, then I'll be cautiously plucking away at it. Trouble is with yesterdays move missing the weekly low by a tick, I reckon we may just head to the top of the range again.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1841.25 -> 1868.75
Value 1849.75 -> 1863.75
S1 - 1840.50, R1 - 1875.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1841.50 -> 1868.75
Value - 1852.75 -> 1868.75
Globex - 1842 -> 1847.50

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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31st March

Last day of the month. So a push up may be on the cards.



Once again we are stalled at the 59.50 area. What I'm looking for today is a push through there towards 1880 or a push to one of the downside references 1839.50 or 1825.25. I'll be looking for shorts below 59.50 and longs above.



We are just at the top of last weeks value area. Downside looks likely to be choppy from here down to 1840 and above 1864, it looks like we could have a runner.



We do have a gap up from Fridays close but a gap in the sense of opening above Fridays range. 1850.75 is where we retraced to after moving down into Thursdays range but not getting to Thursdays VAH. Longs will want to see 50.75 hold and if not 48.25 and I'll be wary of those levels if I'm still short.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1834 -> 1868.75
Value 1841.50 -> 1859.50
S1 - 1833.50, R1 - 1868.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1841.25 (globex)/1845 (pit) -> 1859.50
Value - 1849.25 -> 1857.75
Globex - 1855 -> 1858.75

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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1st April



Back up towards the highs again. So a simple day today - can we get to the high this time or are we going to collapse back down towards 1839.50.

As of writing, we are at the 1868 area which has been acting as resistance for a while, although I still see it as a minor level. We are above the worst of the chop. We have some news at 10am and if it does look bullish, I can see the potential for both pace and interest to push it to 1880.



The weekly profile isn't showing us much more - we can see we have been trading above the 1864 level discussed yesterday and that was an area we thought would be more fluid.



Saying that, the range wasn't very big yesterday but we did see a move to Fridays pit session high and then buyers step in. For today, I'll be looking for something similar. A move to a downside reference where buyers will jump in. If I see that, I expect the move to have legs.

If we do break below yesterdays pit session low, then I'm cautious down to 59.50 and bearish below it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1834 -> 1868.75
Value 1841.50 -> 1859.50
S1 - 1833.50, R1 - 1868.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1855 (globex)/1859.50 (pit) -> 1868
Value - 1862.50 -> 1866
Globex - 1862.25 -> 1870

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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2nd April



Well, that's a relief, we finally got our high. Not yesterday though - but overnight. So first order of the day is if we can hold onto that. The old high was 1880.50 and at this point it seems to be asking a lot for that to hold on a retrace down from here. 1867.50 does look like a potential candidate and I'll be watching that today.

In terms of today, I don't really see anything else worth considering but a hold of this high or a failure down. We can see the potential downside references for continued rangebound behavior - 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25.



Yesterday we said "Saying that, the range wasn't very big yesterday but we did see a move to Fridays pit session high and then buyers step in. For today, I'll be looking for something similar. A move to a downside reference where buyers will jump in"

Yesterday pit session, we did move down through the Globex high before buyers stepped in. Pretty much following what happened on Monday. So today, instead of looking for 1880.25 to hold from above, I favor a downside test. Both from the perspective of wanting a long but also in terms of switching to short bias. So I won't be saying that 1880.25 it's reversing to bottom of the range until we clear yesterdays value low. If we break that, I'll be thinking this whole move up through the highs is just a tease.




In terms of the downside references yesterday, we had some interesting developments off the volume profile. The above was taken at 9:29:40 - We can see the 1868 level with very few contracts traded.

At 70.75, just prior to the open a lot of sellers sold into that price - about 3500 sell market orders, lots of size and it held. Quite a rare thing to see in the Globex session. That held on the first test and we couldn't get as low as 68 on the next push down. So do keep an eye on the overnight volume profile as your downside tests might just come from there.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1855 -> 1883.50
Value 1860.50 -> 1880.50
S1 - 1833.50, R1 - 1868.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1862.25(globex)/1869.25 (pit) -> 1878.25
Value - 1870.50 > 1875.50
Globex - 1877 -> 1883.50

Other - 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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3rd April



We are pretty much where we were same time yesterday. We are about in the same place So let's just repeat.

Well, that's a relief, we finally got our high. Not yesterday though - but overnight. So first order of the day is if we can hold onto that. The old high was 1880.50 and at this point it seems to be asking a lot for that to hold on a retrace down from here. 1867.50 does look like a potential candidate and I'll be watching that today.

In terms of today, I don't really see anything else worth considering but a hold of this high or a failure down. We can see the potential downside references for continued rangebound behavior - 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25.




We can see a few distributions on the way up this week. The upper one has a low of 1876.75, so that's a level we can look at to hold if tge 80.50 does break.



Yesterday we said:

Yesterday we said "Saying that, the range wasn't very big yesterday but we did see a move to Fridays pit session high and then buyers step in. For today, I'll be looking for something similar. A move to a downside reference where buyers will jump in"

The red horizontal line was Tuesdays Value high. On Wednesday we pushed down to within a few ticks of that ant then buyers jumper in. So sure - range wasn't great but it's still moving up off downside tests.

So again, look for the downside test. If we see yesterdays low break, then we may see a decent push downwards but right now - people are buying the dip. I almost feel like I'm jinxing it just by saying that!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1855 -> 1886.25
Value 1864.75 -> 1885.0
S1 - 1833.50, R1 - 1868.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1876.25 -> 1886.25
Value - 1879.25 -> 1883.75
Globex - 1881.25 -> 1885.25

Other - 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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4th April



Well - still pretty much in the same place but a more convincing break of 1880.50 yesterday. It really feels like everyone is waiting to see what everyone else is going to do. The past 3 days volume has been around 1.2 Million contracts which is fairly light. We need a break one way or the other and perhaps the numbers at 8:30 will help us out a little.

I am completely neutral biased at this point.



We can see that most of the action this week has been above 1877. We had a poke through that yesterday but buyers did step in. So I'll be looking to see what happens if we break it again today.



It seems that the 1887.50 area is proving tough to crack and so a test of that today that fails would be an interesting short. Yesterdays low was just a few ticks below Wednesdays low so there is a good chance we will rotate around Wednesday/Thursdays range today.

Yesterdays Value High has held in Globex and if it holds in the pit session, that's more bullish and I'd expect 1887.50 to break.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1855 -> 1887.50
Value 1865-> 1887
S1 - 1833.50, R1 - 1868.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1875.50 -> 1887 (pit)/1887.50 (globex)
Value - 1878.50 -> 1883
Globex - 1883-> 1887

Other - 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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7th April




Non Farm Payroll gave us a good move on Friday. We took a look up to the Globex high in the pit session, couldn't get through it and then sellers came in. Volume had been sparse last week but we got 2.5 million on Firday

Typically, the Monday following NFP can be pretty lousy in terms of range. Still, we do have the chance of a "snap back" today if buyers come in and the shorts start to feel the squeeze.

If we don't snap back today, then I can see us working our way back down towards the bottom of the range - 1839.50 or 1825.25.

I'll be looking above to see if 59.50 acts as resistance, if it does, then I think we go down. Similarly I'll be looking for Fridays lows to see if they hold in the pit session and if they do expect buyers to jump in - but not with any real opinion on how far they can take it.



Looking at last week, we have a lower traded area between 67.50-77, so again I'll be looking at those prices to see if they act as resistance. 67.50 is also one of our price levels (see below). Looking at the 2 hour chart above, we are in a chop zone but normally looking at the profile, I'd expect 67.50-77.00 to provide more easy movement if we do move up.

So - a snap back or a bit of chop are my 2 most likely scenarios. We could carry on straight down of course. Globex inventory is short so a correction upside off the open could spur a move up.

Not the easiest day to call. So I'll not be in a great hurry to get into a trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1855 -> 1892.50
Value 1865.50-> 1887
S1 - 1846.50, R1 - 1883

Daily Numbers
Range - 1855.75 -> 1892.25
Value - 1856.50-> 1881.50 (but pretty meaningless on a day like Friday)
Globex - 1850.25 -> 1861.75

Numbers just for today - 1877

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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8th April



Well - my 2 preferred scenarios for yesterday fell by the wayside and we carried on down. We have a level just below at 1825.25 and we have March low just below at 1823.50. So we either stop here and turn back up or it's down to test 1799.25.

The line above us at 39.50 is a line in the sand, we can see it's already rotated around it a little, so if that's resolved one way or the other off the pit open, we should have our bias.

Note that on the last push down through 39.50 (127th March) - we got as far as 1834 - so people will have an eye on that too..



Not really much on the weekly profile from my perspective, I will be watching the lower distribution at 1837-1843 but I think it's a reach to say we'll rotate there at this point.



The split globex/pit profile is a bit more interesting. We can see that after the drop yesterday we managed to reach 1846, so I think that's worth watching if we do get through 39.50 level. Other than that, the usual numbers are in play.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1855 -> 1892.50
Value 1865.50-> 1887
S1 - 1846.50, R1 - 1883

Daily Numbers
Range - 1834.50 -> 1857.50 (globex)/ 1861.75 (pit)
Value - 1837.25-> 1849.75
Globex - 1833.25 -> 1843.50

Numbers just for today - 1823.50, 1834, 1846

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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9th April



We didn't make it as low as our 1825.25 level yesterday but we did see buyers step in and got back up through the 1839.50 level.

Volume yesterday was a little lower than the prior 2 days at 1.8 million but that's still fairly decent.

So the question to be answered today is simple - "are we now done in the probe to the bottom of the range and looking at 1890 again or will sellers come in for another leg down?".

I don't think it'll take much to spook the longs, so I think it's a case of figuring out where longs will bail out for another leg down.



We can see value for the week is around a fairly nicely distributed bulge in the bottom of the profile. So if weekly value breaks either side, we could see people joining that move. So I'm looking to this weeks value area to see if each side holds or folds.



The first order of the day is the 1841 level highlighted above. Bulls will want that to hold. If that does break there's a second chance level below at the VAL 1839.25 but if that breaks I'd expect to at least test yesterdays low. To the upside we have traded briefly above yesterdays high/VAH but not managed to stay above it yet.

So into today - looking at yesterdays value first as well as 1841 level. I'll be short biased below 39.25 and long biased above 1849 (weekly VAH/globex high). Also looking for these levels to hold for an earlier entry with caution.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1830.76 -> 1861.75
Value 1834.50 -> 1849
S1 - 1846.50, R1 - 1883

Daily Numbers
Range - 1830.75 -> 1849
Value - 1839.25 -> 1847.75
Globex - 1843.75 -> 1849

Numbers just for today - 1841

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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April 10th



We are back to the middle of the range again, so a good potential for chop. The FOMC gave us a boost yesterday and we need to hang onto those gains for a run to 1890 and possibly beyond. We are just above the 59.50 level but that really hasn't helped us much in the past few months. The most significant levels have been the 39.50 and the all time high.



We popped up above the weekly value yesterday and the weekly value high is 1854, so that's a minor level for me in terms of being bullish.



The split globex/pit profile is showing us a few interesting things. We have value high at 1860 for yesterday and a "single print" at 1855. The single is effectively the breakout point after the FOMC. Tests of these levels in the pit session should be the best indicator of whether we can carry on up or not.

Unemployment numbers at 8:30am might also help set the tone for the day.

So whilst we are in the chop zone, we do have a couple of levels that could potentially act as decent lines in the sand. Mostly it's 1854-1855 & 1860.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1830.75 -> 1867.50
Value 1836.50 -> 1854.50
S1 - 1846.50, R1 - 1883

Daily Numbers
Range - 1843.75 (globex) / 1845.25 (pit) -> 1866.50
Value - 1845.50-> 1860
Globex - 1859 -> 1867.50 (globex spiked down after taking above screenshots)

Numbers just for today - 1855

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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11th April

Well - the sky might NOT be falling - but I wouldn't fade the down moves....



There is a lot of chatter around about this being the start of a major correction. That's fine for us but looing at this chart of the past 2 years, even a move as low as 1700 wouldn't really be much more than a move back to a major level and therefore still exhibiting longer term range bound behavior. Not that we care too much from a trading perspective.



We can see that the 1825.25 level has broken and that needs to stay broken into the pit session ti see us go to the next level just below 1800. Shorts can get squeezed at any time but long is obviously the riskier trade right now. Looking above, we can see that even a dip to 1723.25 is merely going back to test February lows. So there's plenty of potential for more downside. Volume on the down days is clearly larger than on the up days and although yesterday started out choppy, the delta was moving down straight from the start.



In terms of profiles, the weekly value low is 1834.50 for the week, so if we work above that it becomes slightly more bullish but it's not so much a game of price levels today as it is seeing the sellers bail in the delta. If they keep hitting as yesterday, then there's no point in getting long until they have clearly stopped and are clearly getting squeezed.

As we can see the Globex session is below yesterdays Value low and pushing down. Overnight inventory is long which often gives us a correction upside off the open. Yesterdays VAL is 1833.25, not far from the weekly, so that's a test for the longs.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 18314.50 -> 1867.50
Value 1834.50 -> 1861
S1 - 1846.50, R1 - 1883

Daily Numbers
Range - 1823.75 -> 1866.50
Value - 1833.25-> 1863.25
Globex - 1814.50 -> 1832

Numbers just for today - 1855

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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17th April

Happy Thai New Year! I'm back after the break - that's the 3rd and final New Year celebration this year. Calendar, Chinese then Thai.



Doesn't appear that the sky is falling in after all. Still, we are about halfway back so we have to keep an eye out for a failure at this point.



The 59.50 area proved to be pretty weak, so it got relegated to a different color. The 67.50 level is the next one above I see being a potential for a turnaround and below us we have the 39.50 level that needs to hold for more upside. There's a lot going on around that level.



As we can see on the weekly profile, the 40.25 level has become a bit of a base, so I think this gives more weight to that 39.50 area above.



On the split globex/pit profile, we can see yesterdays globex low is 39.75, then the pit low is 40.75. So that whole area 39.50-40.75 is key for more upside. It would be a great to see this tested today. My gut feel is that if this breaks we'll have a good short opportunity and if it hold a good long opportunity. Somewhat stating the obvious that but I feel we'll have a good continuation either way.

We do also have yesterdays VAL to get through and if the bullishness continues, we might not get down past that. We do have unemployment numbers at 8:30 so we may get the test before the pit session opens.

So I'm primarily looking at 39.50->40.75 but also an eye on the VAL as well as the VAH at 1853 but I don't see that as a major reaction point (even though it's held in Globex so far). I feel buyers will be easier to attract than sellers at this point.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1803.25 -> 1857
Value 1804 -> 1844.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1839.75 (globex) / 1840.75 (pit) -> 1854
Value - 1845 -> 1853
Globex - 1847.25 -> 1853

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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21st April



Just below the 67.50 as at writing (4:35am EST). If we get through 67.50, then I expect us to go and test the highs, if not, then I'll consider that we may be moving dowb but I won't get really bearish till we pass down through 39.50. Below that I'll presume we are looking at another run to 1800.

The move up was pretty aggressive at the start of last week but did fade out towards the end of the week. Whether this was just pre-holiday malaise or the move up is fading should be clear today.



Last weeks profile shows us building volume at higher prices. Todays Globex session is not telling us much because much of Europe is closed today. To the downside, we can see the 1840 level us below the upper distribution and that gives weight to wanting to stay above 39.50 for longs.



On Thursday, we took a poke down to 1850 in the pit session before moving up to 1864 and retracing a little. The 1850.25 level is worth watching today as is the 1856.75 we pulled back to.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1803.25 -> 1863.75
Value 1804 -> 1848
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1847.25 (globex) / 1850.25 (pit) -> 1863.75
Value - 1854.50 -> 1861.50
Globex - 1858.25 -> 1862.75

For today - 1856.75

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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I'm getting quite used to reading your Daily View

Keep up the good work


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22nd April



Yesterday was fairly narrow, so today we are pretty much in the same spot - will we bounce off the 67.50 area and head to the lows again or get through it and then move up to 1900? As per yesterday:

Just below the 67.50 as at writing (4:35am EST). If we get through 67.50, then I expect us to go and test the highs, if not, then I'll consider that we may be moving dowb but I won't get really bearish till we pass down through 39.50. Below that I'll presume we are looking at another run to 1900.

The move up was pretty aggressive at the start of last week but did fade out towards the end of the week. Whether this was just pre-holiday malaise or the move up is fading should be clear today.


Ok - so maybe it'll be clear today - yesterday was lackluster with a lot of Europe being closed. Todays Eurex session was quiet though, so it could well follow on and be another slow one today.



Looking at the weekly profiles, we are above the upper distribution last week, so that is more bullish we can see that below 55 we end up in that upper distribution with the potential for it to churn about there. Below we have the "step" at 1840.25 - just above the 39.50 mentioned above - another good reason to expect a run if 39.50 breaks.



Yesterday we opined "On Thursday, we took a poke down to 1850 in the pit session before moving up to 1864 and retracing a little. The 1850.25 level is worth watching today as is the 1856.75 we pulled back to."

And we got down to 56.50 - so will be watching that area again today. So really looking for the same things today that we were looking for yesterday 67.50 being a line in the sand above us, 39.50 being a line in the sane below with 56.50 and 50.00 as minor support levels for long trades.

Note also that the Globex low is currently yesterdays VAL - so that could well be our support today.,



Weekly Numbers
Range - 1803.25 -> 1863.75
Value 1804 -> 1848
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25


Daily Numbers

Range - 1856.50 -> 1865.50
Value - 1860.75 -> 1865.25
Globex - 1860.75-> 1866.25

For today - 1850

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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23rd April



Well - we got above 67.50, so now my presumption is we'll retest the all time highs. This doesn't mean we'll do it in one leg, so now I'm looking for lines in the sand below that would make good long entries OR invalidate my premise.



From a weekly perspective, we have the upper distribution from last week at 53.75. What we can also see is that this week we also have 2 distributions. The lower one is 1858.25-> 1866.50. So we can see that as we broke 67.50 to the upside, we had a run up without much trading to the upper distribution at 1871.25-> 1878.

So what we want to see today is for that upper distribution to hold or at least for us to stay above this weeks lower distribution - which coincides closely enough to our 67.50 line.



It is worth noting that volatility was pitiful in the Eurex session. and Globex range currently stands at just 4.75 points. VIX is down to 13, so it might be a slow one today.



On the split Globex/Pit profiles, we can see the lower arrow pointing to our 67.50 line, then
we have a single print @ 71.50 and the afternoon pullback at 72.50 - any of those could see sellers jump in.

For me, anything above 67.50 is bullish overall and I'm primarily looking for buyers to jump in. Still - if we poke 2 ticks through yesterdays high and sellers come in, I'll still take a short despite being overall biased long.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1856.50 -> 1878.75
Value 1857.25 -> 1872.75
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1860.75 (globex) / 1865.75 (pit) -> 1878.75
Value - 1872.75 -> 1878.25
Globex - 1871.25-> 1875.75

For today - 1871.50, 1872.50, 1858.25

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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24th April



We got a pull back yesterday right to our 67.50 line.

Buyers did step in, although admittedly it was pretty slow on the way up. Still we were expecting that yesterday considering the VIX was at lows.

We do have a level at 80.50 but I'm still long biased expecting a run to the highs. Obviously I could be wrong but I think probability favors a run to the highs and the buyers coming in at 67.50 adds weight to that.



A double distribution on a weekly basis so far (or you could argue triple but the volume is not there on the upper area). We have a single at 67.25 which coincides with our 67.50 level. This developing distribution above has a low at 1876, so there's a chance that may be our stepping stone for an up move.

I'm thinking we haven't moved up enough or traded enough to consider us out the top of that upper area, so I think we could see a retrace down to low 70's without that meaning we should shift to short bias.



We can see in the split globex/pit proflines that yesterday was a narrow range but int he Globex, we have basically stayed above yesterdays VAH at 1872. In terms of a pullback in the pit session, 1872 looks more reasonable at this point than 1876.

So looking for longs above 1867.50 overall. Todays plan - look for one of our levels below as a reference from which buyers step in.

The higher we go the more we are moving into areas where we had light trading. As such, I expect it to move more freely/quickly as we move up.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1856.50 -> 1880.75
Value 1857.25 -> 1873.25
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1867.50 -> 1873.75 (pit) / 1875.75 (globex)
Value - 1869.00 -> 1872
Globex - 1872.25-> 1880.75

For today - 1876

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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25th April



Yesterday, the market got spooked over rumors of Putin calling an emergency press conference. That saw aggressive selling shortly after the open but we normalized in the PM.

So I'm going to pretty much ignore yesterday and go back to what I was looking for yesterday AM before the market opened. That is the market staying above 67.50 - testing a downside reference and making a run for the highs.

I see yesterday as an aberration and not the end of the move up. If we get more news today, then it could well start something bigger but if not, I'll look for us to keep on doing what we were doing before Putin rumors gave us that move.



We can see 2 major distributions on the weekly profile with 67.50 in the middle of them it might be a bit of a churn up to 76. If we break 67.50 again, then I will have to consider shorts.



We did actually make a new high of this leg yesterday - 1882.50 - but that was in Globex before the collapse

On the split profile, we can see we dipped below Wednesdays low but on recovery we held at 68.75 before the last run up yesterday. So far in the Globex, that same 68.75 has held. So I'm looking for 68.75 or 68.50 to hold now for more upside. If not, then I think we risk having sellers step in again.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1856.50 -> 1882.50
Value 1865.25 -> 1881.25
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1863.75 -> 1878.50 (pit) / 1882.50 (globex)
Value - 1869.75 -> 1876.25
Globex - 1868.75 -> 1874.75

For today - 1868.75

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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6th March

After 21 and a bit hours on airplanes, I'm back from Chicago and home on the range in Bangkok.



Once again we have all the appearances of a potential "run to the highs". Still - I've been thinking that has been on the cards for a while. So once again I'll be looking for a downside reference to play a long off but will be ready to go short if those references fail.



We can see last weeks value area is 1866.25->1879.75. The top is a bit more of a dramatic step than the bottom which really just tapers off. I see the value low from last week as less significant that the value high. The value high is at 1879.50 and we have the old high at 1880.50 - so I 'm looking for a break through that area and potentially a retest from above for a push up. If we can't get through that area, I'll be looking for shorts at least down to 67.50.



On the split globex/pit profiles, we can see a few significant levels. Yesterdays Value low at 1871.50 would be a good level to get long off but we might not get much lower than the pullback off yesterdays high - we got down to 1875.50 into the close. So I'll be watching both levels today to see if we get signs they are holding. For shorts, I'd rather short a break of 71.50 or a failure to get through yesterdays high at 1880. I'll also be looking at Fridays high for rejection if we make it up there.

Overnight inventory is all long but mostly within yesterdays range, so I'm not expecting a strong counter move off the open unless we go much higher.

All this of course does presume that jet lag doesn't get the better of me & that I'll still be awake when the markets open.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1844 -> 1886
Value 1866.25 -> 1879.75
S1 1850.50, R1 1892.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1860.50 -> 1880
Value - 1871.50 -> 1879.50
Globex - 1876 -> 1881.50


Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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 WilleeMac 
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Sorry if this is off topic

Do you do anything with /6E or J?

Curious

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-Bill

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WilleeMac View Post
Sorry if this is off topic

Do you do anything with /6E or J?

Curious

Thank you

-Bill

Never touched either I'm afraid!

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March 7th



The first question that comes to mind today is "are we done?". Have we now completed our price discovery upwards, found nothing there and now due to go back the low 1800's? I think at this point, it's tough to call but the more times the markets try to do something and fail, the more chance the opposite will happen.

We do have a level just below us at 59.50 and the weeks low thus far has been 60.50. So far in the Globex session we've been as low as 61. Below this it doesn't look like much will stop the market till we get to 1839.50. It is quite possible that if we break 59.50 that sellers will jump on and we'll be down at 39.50 very quickly.

There is a lot of chop to the left but we've had plenty of fast spikes down to that area before.



As discussed yesterday, the weekly profile just sort of tapers out to the downside but has a more significant step above - not far off from where the old high of 1880.50 was. We tested that area in the Globex session and now we are testing what is the last "chunk" in the profile below - albeit a small chunk. This is just above our 59.50 area so adds weight to the argument we might accelerate if we start trading below there in the pit session.
just so



We mentioned yesterday the pullback into the close on Monday to the 75.50 area.

"Yesterdays Value low at 1871.50 would be a good level to get long off but we might not get much lower than the pullback off yesterdays high - we got down to 1875.50 into the close"

Well - a long off it in the pit session would not have been possible as the level broke down in the Globex session. Interestingly though - it did then act as resistance. Obviously people looking @ the gap from the close. If we look at yesterday, we pulled back to 1866.75 after the days low was established and there's a single print at 67.25 too - so this could act as resistance into the open. It could also potentially be our support if the Globex session pops up after in the hours remaining before the open.

Again, we can see how close we are to the weeks low - that 59.50-60.50 area that will likely see sellers step in if it breaks.

So for me a break of 59.50-60.50 is the most significant potential move today. Yesterday started off horribly in terms of chop and so if we move up, I'll be a bit more wary as I'll expect it more choppy to the upside.

Still - Yellen is in the chair at 10am EST - so I'll probably have to throw my prep out the window after that!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1860.50-> 1881.50
Value 1861.25 -> 1875.25
S1 1850.50, R1 1892.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1861.75 -> 1875.50 (pit) / 1881.50 (globex)
Value - 1865.25 -> 1874.75
Globex - 1861 -> 1865

Just for today - 1866.75-> 1867.25

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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May 8th



Yesterday we had our eye on a break of 59.50->60.50 with potential for an extended move, possibly down to 39.50. Well we did get a bit of a run when it broke but then we came back again. The down move was off the back of Ukraine news, so maybe there wasn't "real" size behind the move down. Still - it does show it's becoming a tricky market to call in terms of lines in the sand where you expect people to jump on board.

I'm using the daily chart today for long term analysis. Taking a step back, the past 13 sessions have opened/closed in the 1860-1880 range. We have traded outside that but effectively "value" is 60-80 right now, a "micro-range" I guess we can call it. So from a value perspective above 80 is expensive and below 60 is cheap. This is a pretty tight range to be in for almost 3 weeks and so playing the extremes has some risk because of the amount of time we've been here. Still - in a range you fade the extremes.

We will break out at some point and I expect some acceleration when we do but I see no clear indication of which way we will break or when it'll happen. My bias has to be upside because that's the direction it was going before the range.

Anyway the upshot is - 60->80 is value and unless news driven, we will probably have chop in the middle. I blame jet lag for me not spotting this on Monday or Tuesday ;-)



The weekly profile for this week really just confirms the above 60-80 temporary balance/value.



In terms of levels to play off, we are close to 80 in the Globex session, if we do pull back to yesterdays value high of 70.50 - we do have 80 as a potential target and that does give you breathing room to get some off and leave a portion on for the possibility that today is the day the range breaks.

We can see that yesterday we first had the Globex high as resistance, we went down, got thru it 2 ticks before breaking it on the third attempt. So regular intraday levels are worth watching in the middle of this 60-80 range but I am pretty much neutral going into today and not really looking at any level as being exceptional going into this open.

If 80 does break, then look closely for absorption on the offer as we move past 80. If you see it pop through and then lots of buying above around 81.50-82.00 but no move through, the sellers are absorbing and it's another headfake and breakout traders getting caught offside.

For a continuation long trade, I'd want to see us get to 83 at least, then come back to the 80 area for a retest before moving up more. For sure, I would not go long if we just got to 81.50 and came back to 80.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1854.50 -> 1881.50
Value 1863.50 -> 1876
S1 1850.50, R1 1892.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1854.50-> 1875.75
Value - 1862.75 -> 1870.75
Globex - 1871.25 -> 1876.50

Just for today - 1866.75-> 1867.25

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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May 9th



We are still rotating around the 1860-1880 range. So there's not much to say that we didn't say yesterday. Whilst this range holds, fading the extremes is the best bet but as it's been poking through both sides considerably, I'd wait for the reversals to confirm themselves before fading.



Yesterday we got up to 82.75 and then moved sideways for a while with delta moving down, as we got down to 1878, delta had come off 10k which is usually enough to confirm a reversal. As it was we chopped around where the volume had built on the way up and moved another 2 points through the high before the actual reversal to the lows.

This week the moves have been fairly decent once we revert back to the range. I imagine a lot of people got caught short off the 82.75 reversal yesterday. I don't think there's much you could do about that if you did get caught. We got a move to the extremes, sideways action, then a drop with delta confirming. Just unlucky it took another run to the high before the real move down.

Anyway - same thing today - you can try to play the middle - perhaps off yesterdays VAL or the globex low or you can wait for the extreme. The best trade for me would be a retrace after the range breaks but it's hard to gauge when that will be as ranges always look like they are about to break when we get to the extremes.

Eurex session was really slow today and we may be looking at a slow day.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1854.50 -> 1884.75
Value 1864.25 -> 1877.25
S1 1850.50, R1 1892.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1865 -> 1884.75
Value - 1869 -> 1881
Globex - 1868 -> 1872.75

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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 RichardHK 
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Welcome home DT!

I am reading Dalton's Markets in Profile book being interested to learn more about finding entry/exit levels.

Q1: Today you have lines on the MP chart that relate to the 'Other' 1867.50 and 1859.50 levels. Where do these come from?

Q2: How far back do you look? And are you using other indicators other than NY's TPO and Vol Profile shown?

Thanks for your time putting these reports together.

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12th May



Still in the range, still looking to sell 80's and buy 60's but on a second entry, not the first push.



Looking at the weekly profile, it doesn't tell us much other than confirming the 60-80 range, it actually has the value high at 75.50 but I'm sticking with 80 as my personal value high.



The split Globex/Pit profiles also not of much help. We can see the fundamental issue of playing ranges like this. On Friday we got as low as 62.75 in the first hour and then went to 62.50 - so a triple bottom. We basically never made it as far as "cheap" at 60 and below. In this case, we got a triple bottom so actually got second and third chance to enter but still it does show you can't just buy 60 and sell 80 blindly. Next time there it might hit 54 before reversing up.



Here's the triple bottom. We can see that on the second hit, there was very little delta in the pullback to the low, which made that a more attractive trade. For the third hit, there was more negative delta and for that sort of trade and the move that followed it, it was a tougher entry. The delta made it hard to just hit the low (for me) and the subsequent move didn't give a great price to lean on but you can see a small range 64.50-65.75 on the way up.

So again, best trade for me would be breaking this range and coming back for it. Anything in the middle is tricky for the way I trade.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 1854.50 -> 1885
Value 1863.50 -> 1875.50
S1 1857, R1 1887.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1862.50 -> 1875
Value - 1865.75 -> 1873.25
Globex - 1874-> 1878 (4:50am EST)

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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RichardHK View Post
Welcome home DT!

I am reading Dalton's Markets in Profile book being interested to learn more about finding entry/exit levels.

Q1: Today you have lines on the MP chart that relate to the 'Other' 1867.50 and 1859.50 levels. Where do these come from?

Q2: How far back do you look? And are you using other indicators other than NY's TPO and Vol Profile shown?

Thanks for your time putting these reports together.


Q1 - Other levels are from the 2 hour chart - just areas that have been significant in the past months.

Q2 - I'll get rid of a level when it becomes irrelevant - that usually happens by the market running through it without stopping a number of times. For MP - I only look at yesterdays and last weeks profiles. Last weeks is only relevant int he first 2 days of any week. Then this weeks is more relevant.

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13th May

Note - this is an early prep - 4am EST.



We finally escaped the 60-80 range and poked through the all time high - which is also the top of the larger range. So this is interesting because if we move down now, we could well revert back to the 60-80 range or complete the larger range and be looking at a target of 25.25 and potentially 1800. Still - that's probably something we don't have to worry about intraday today.

In terms of yesterdays action - about 1.2 million traded, so it's not as if a lot of people jumped on either the break of the 60-80 range or the break of the new high. I guess that's 'strike 1' against continuation upwards.



The profile shows is with thin trading below 86.75 with a single at 82. Yesterday we mentioned that

"So again, best trade for me would be breaking this range and coming back for it" - in English I should probably have said "coming back TO it" . That did occur yesterday but today a break of 86.75 should lead to a drop to 82 and then we have another single at 78.50.

If we come down - I'm looking at 80-82 to hold the market for more upside. It's possible that 78.50 could hold it but below that I'll be looking for 60 as a target. If 60 breaks, then we have to consider the larger move down. For today though if it breaks 78.50, I'm looking for 60. If it holds 80-82, I'm looking for new highs.

Of course we do also have potential to hold this upper distribution in the profile with a low of 86.75 - that might have broken by the time we get to the open though but it's worth looking at.



Yesterdays pit session was a grind up and todays globex is mostly above the close so far. That can cause a snap reaction by sellers at the pit open, so watch out for that. It is bullish but with weak volume, I'd actually like to see us build volume ad these prices 86-96 to give us a base for another move up.



If volume was uninspiring yesterday, so was the delta - up about 26k on the day. Pretty lackluster and not indicative of strong buying.

So overall - this move up looks weak. We need to hold 80. If we can hold 80 I'll be happy to go long. Below 78.50 I think the long side looks precarious. If we can build some decent volume at these prices, then that will make me feel more comfortable with going long. Yesterday could just be a big headfake.

Whilst 80-82 is the decider for me I think 86.75 is worth watching too.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1854.50 -> 1885
Value 1863.50 -> 1875.50
S1 1857, R1 1887.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1874 (globex)/1881.75(pit) -> 1893.25
Value - 1887.25 -> 1891.75
Globex - 1892.25> 1896.25

For today - 1880-1882, 1886.75

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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14th May



Yesterdays volume was just under 1.1 million, which is pretty feeble. We traded between the old high and 1900 - making it up to 98.50. It does look like there's not much interest in trading through 1900. It is possible that the break of 1900 brings some excitement but from where I'm sitting, I'm not banking on that. Still, if there was an opportunity to get long into it with a good backstop, I'd take it.

We have broken the 60-80 range and the old high of 92.50 but since that we have seen lackluster trading. This does not bode well for continuation upwards.



This weeks profile shows a pop up, we can see there is an upper distribution between 92.50 to 96.50. In terms of making new highs, building volume aka price acceptance is a good thing. Trouble is if it drops through the bottom of 92.50, there's not much to catch it toll we get back to 80-82. We also have a downside reference at 86.75 which could stall it.

What I'd like to see is a pop up to maybe 1910 and then come back to 92.50 OR a bit of a sell off to a downside reference point - to wash some of the sellers out.



We can see on the split globex/pit profile that we've been just ticking through the old high but we've not held below it.

So
- a pop thru 1900 could gather buyers but I think it's low probability
- a pop to 1910 and a retrace back to 1900 or 92.50 would be interesting from the long side
- a sell off to 86.75 or 80-82 would also be interesting from the long side
- for shorts - same as yesterday - if we drop through 78.50 - I think we'll see 60 and maybe 25.25.
- Of course - we might not see any of the above prices and we could well just be in for a chop day in which the game is to decide if it's worth playing that range...


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1874.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1887 -> 1897
S1 1857, R1 1887.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1892 -> 1898.50
Value - 1892.50 > 1895
Globex - 1891.25 -> 1897.25

For today - 1880-1882, 1886.75

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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May 15th



After the three lackluster days (yesterday 1.2 million). We are finally at an area of interst. From Tuesday

"If we come down - I'm looking at 80-82 to hold the market for more upside. It's possible that 78.50 could hold it but below that I'll be looking for 60 as a target. If 60 breaks, then we have to consider the larger move down. For today though if it breaks 78.50, I'm looking for 60. If it holds 80-82, I'm looking for new highs."

We had the 86.76 as a weaker line in the sand but we've actually got downto 82. It wasn't a big sell off yesterday, so I am not short biased going into today. I think we needed to pullback a bit. So today, I need us to hold that area. Below 78.50, I think shorts will step in.

Today, I'm hoping to see a little more decisiveness. Looking to see if buyers step in at these prices at the open or if sellers play a break of 78.50.



The profile looks a bit healthier now too - we have a wider upper distribution. It's not telling us much more in terms of prices though - just a healthier distribution of trading. It's still not a strong high but it looks stronger than yesterday.



We can see the low yesterday was a tick above 82. I'm still bullish down to 80. Globex is rotating around yesterdays close so far and holding the low. On the bear side. we have rejected yesterdays VAL in the Globex session but it's 4:20am and not too much to read into that. I'm looking for an open that tests the 80-82 area for a long. If it fails and goes below 78.50 - Im looking for shorts to step in.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1874.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1886.25 -> 1897
S1 1857, R1 1887.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1882 -> 1893.25 (pit) / 1897.25 (globex
Value - 188.25 > 1895
Globex - 1888.25 -> 1892.75

For today - 1880-1882

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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16th May



From Tuesday & Thursday:

"If we come down - I'm looking at 80-82 to hold the market for more upside. It's possible that 78.50 could hold it but below that I'll be looking for 60 as a target. If 60 breaks, then we have to consider the larger move down. For today though if it breaks 78.50, I'm looking for 60. If it holds 80-82, I'm looking for new highs."

In yesterdays Globex session we did poke a few ticks through 80 but basically it was holding. Then in the pit session, we broke the 78.50 and as expected went to 60 (well if you look in the levels below, our level was 59.50 and it went to 59).

So now we have a few scenarios to consider.

Red - we now revert back to rotating around 60-80 we held for the past 3 weeks before the breakout upside
Yellow - we proceed down to complete the larger range, down to 25.25
Orange - with 60 holding, we have shaken the "future sellers" out and are now in a position where we can properly move though 1900.

It was weak above 1900 but as previously stated - all buyers on the way up had to exit by selling - so maybe it was just a matter of too many sellers up there.

so today - 1859.50 is a line in the sand - if we crack that we can get to 1840 fairly quickly and then 25.25.
If 59.50 holds, then 80.50 above us may stop the up move and above that I expect us to make an attempt at the highs.



The weekly profile does have a single print at 1870 and a lower distribution that needs to break for more upside. So we do have to consider that 1870 could actually stop the market and we might just chop around 1860-1870 today.



This lower range is holding in todays Globex session so far as is yesterdays VAL. We do have news at 8:30 and 9:55. It's possible that 9:30-9:55 is a bit choppy ahead of that news. If it's still choppy at 10:30 - I'll not hang around.



A quick look at yesterdays volume profile. You can see we opened at 1881 and then we got down to 1879.00 and 11,662 contracts traded. Just a couple of ticks above our line in the sand at 78.40. This was an attempt to hold the market and we can see that 78.50-77.75 have very few contracts - that's basically the longs at 11662 bailing out as it broke the level. If you missed the break, just below at 75.75-76.50 you have another volume cluster - a chance to get on the short side.

So today - eyes on 59.50 to see if buyers step in or the market collapses and eyes on 80.50 if we get there.
On the upside, if we get through 70, there doesn't seem to be much stopping us moving quickly to the 80 level.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1859.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1877 -> 1898.50
S1 1857, R1 1887.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1859 -> 1881.50 (pit) / 1888.50 (globex)
Value - 1860.75 > 1868.75
Globex - 1864.50 -> 1868.50

For today - 1870

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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19th May



Today the scenario is pretty much as it was on Friday. Will we revert back to rotating 60-80 again or find our way out of that range?

Red - looks for us to revert to the 1825.25-1890 range and orange to break our for a new high. So first order of the day is to break out of the 60-80 area. I'll be watching 59.59 & 80.50 areas specifically to see if they hold and play that accordingly.



We do have the potential for the market holding around 78 based on last weeks profile and also for a move down to stop at 1870 - the high of the lower distribution from last week. If we move through 70, then I'll target 61 - the low of that range. If we hold 70, I think we should pop up to 80 fairly quickly.

Obviously a break below last weeks lows should see us head down to 1825.



Here's a look at the 70 level, we can see it acted as resistance and is where we broke upside from, so I like the idea of a retrace back to there for a long if we open above 70. If we open below 70, it could again act as resistance. It's certainly been a significant area. Right now we are at 67 - but in a pretty weak Globex session, so I'm not reading too much into these price levels. I want to see where the pit opens and then see what happens at 60 & 70 areas.

It's not an easy one to call but we do have clear lines in the sand.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1859.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1868.50 -> 1897.50
S1 1856.25, R1 1895.75


Daily Numbers

Range - 1861.25 -> 1875.75
Value - 1863.75 > 1869.75
Globex - 1865.75 -> 1877.50

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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20th May



We got to the top of out 60-80 range and got as high as 83. So today I'm looking to see if that holds or we drop back into 60-80. If we do drob thru 80 with some aggression, I'll expect to see 60. Above us - I'd like to see a pop up and then come down and retest the 80-82 to gather steam for a run of the highs.



We've also got another potential line in the sane at 78.25 below us. So to be sure for a short - I'll wait for that to break. This brings back memories of last week.



We can see the 78.25 area was also close the afternoon pullback yesterday. Of course, we have VAL below it and all the usual suspect areas but basically it's.

Push up and a downside test for a long.
Below 78.25, expect to see 60.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1859.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1868.50 -> 1897.50
S1 1856.25, R1 1895.75


Daily Numbers

Range - 1865.75 (globex)/ 1869.25 -> 1883
Value - 1876.75 > 1882.75
Globex - 1879.25 -> 1884.50

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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May 21st



Suck it up, people....



As per yesterday....

"We got to the top of our 60-80 range and got as high as 83. So today I'm looking to see if that holds or we drop back into 60-80. If we do drop thru 80 with some aggression, I'll expect to see 60. Above us - I'd like to see a pop up and then come down and retest the 80-82 to gather steam for a run of the highs."

We got to 64.75 - so the range hasn't completed downside yet.

So again today - same thing really - looking for the downside of the 60-80 range to hold - knowing we've had a tendency to poke through both sides and that whilst the overall range is acting as a magnet, it's not a clean range..

If we do get a break either side, then I'll be looking for it to come back and test the outside of the range for a continuation. So basically - no going long into 80 or short into 60 for me.



Not a great deal of help this one!



Interesting that Mon Pit/Tue Globex made a "p" formation and Tue Pit/Wed Globex made a "b" formation - so we should be on the lookout for today doing the opposite of what yesterday did. Mind you - seeing as we are looking at a 60-80 range that really doesn't tell us much new information. If yesterdays lows break, we still don't have much more to play off because it's into the low of the range.

Yesterday we had 1874 as low for the first few hours, that broke down and we got a single at 1873.25 and then we pulled back to 1873 in the afternoon., so we can also watch out for the 73-74 area today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1864.75 -> 1884.50
Value 1870 -> 1883
S1 1856.25, R1 1895.75


Daily Numbers

Range - 1864.75 -> 1880.75
Value - 1864.75 > 1876.35
Globex - 1866.50 -> 1873

Today - 1873-1874

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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DionysusToast View Post
BTW - thanks to everyone that 'thanks' these posts - it's always nice to know I'm not just talking to myself and I appreciate you taking time to press the button.

Hi Pete.

You are getting so good at these Pre-market Preps that perhaps you could consider a futures.io (formerly BMT) webinar in future showing us how you do what you do here. Would surely make a lot more sense to us than trying to decipher Dalton. Oh wait, why not write a book too?!

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Hi Pete.

You are getting so good at these Pre-market Preps that perhaps you could consider a futures.io (formerly BMT) webinar in future showing us how you do what you do here. Would surely make a lot more sense to us than trying to decipher Dalton. Oh wait, why not write a book too?!

I'd do a webinar....

But a book - I have 2 kids here already fighting for my time!

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May 22nd



We popped out of our 60-80 area, but volume wasn't huge - about 1.3 million contracts. The above scenario - for a revisit to the top of that range before moving up is what I'd prefer to see before a long. So a move back to 80-82 area would leave me with decent room for another run at 1900.



We can see an upper distribution that has spent most time in the 80-82 area - below 80, it starts to thin out a little but not much so it does look like any move back downside into the 60-80 range will be choppy.



Yesterday we said:

"Interesting that Mon Pit/Tue Globex made a "p" formation and Tue Pit/Wed Globex made a "b" formation - so we should be on the lookout for today doing the opposite of what yesterday did. Mind you - seeing as we are looking at a 60-80 range that really doesn't tell us much new information. If yesterdays lows break, we still don't have much more to play off because it's into the low of the range."

That is basically what happened - we got the "P" on Monday and followed with a down day, then the "b" on Tuesday was followed with an up day. Not a shock considering we were at the bottom of the range.

Obviously now we have popped out of the range, so we need to know if it'll continue or go back to 60 (and then possibly to 25).

Also yesterday.

"Yesterday we had 1874 as low for the first few hours, that broke down and we got a single at 1873.25 and then we pulled back to 1873 in the afternoon. So we can also watch out for the 73-74 area today."

And interestingly 73-74 was significant yesterday - but from above not below - we opened at 75, then moved down but buyers stepped in at 74.50. So today I'm still looking at 73-74 as a level of interest. So if we do come back into the range, we may come back and test 73-74 before making a run back to the highs. So a break of 80 doesn't necessarily mean a run to 60.

So basically the plan is - see if 80-82 holds for upside, then consider that 73-74 might hold for upside if it doesn't. Below that I expect to see 60.

Of course, still watching the usual suspect levels for any reaction.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1864.75 -> 1890.25
Value 1870 -> 1884.50
S1 1856.25, R1 1895.75


Daily Numbers
Range - 1866.50 (globex) / 1874.50 (pit) -> 1886.50
Value - 1878.75> 1886.50
Globex - 1883 -> 1890.50

Today - 1873-1874

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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May 27th

My apologies for Friday prep - there was/is a coup here in Thailand & the internet went off just as I was about to post it!



We popped the high on Friday but being the Friday preceding a holiday Monday - volume was really weak. In fact, just 761k traded. So a pop but a weak pop.



So two scenarios going into today - a retrace back to 92.50 would be a good stepping stone for continuation upwards. Breaking through that significantly will likely see sellers step in ans push us down towards 59.50.



On the split profile - we can see a single print at 1900 and that could end up being a place buyers defend. I have it noted but think it's less likely. Below there is another single @ 93.50 - which gives a bit more weight to the 92.50 above. So we look for buyers 92.50->93.50.



Last weeks value high is 93, so again that gives us a bit more weight to the 92.50-93.50 area. The top distribution on last weeks profile ends at 1889. So if we get through 1889, I'm expecting some acceleration.

So that's all I'm looking for today. Pullback to 1900 or 92.50-93.50. If 92.50-93.50 breaks, caution short to 1889 but expecting a decent move down if that breaks.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1864.75 -> 1899.25
Value 1873.50 -> 1893
S1 1874.74, R1 1909.25


Daily Numbers (using Friday)
Range - 1889.50 (globex) / 1890.75 (pit) -> 1899.25
Value - 1897 > 1901.50
Globex - 1901.75 -> 1906 (Sunday-> Tuesday globex)

Today - 1900, 1892.50-1893.50

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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May 28th



Yesterday was a pretty lackluster day - we did move up some more but volume was only 960k. Maybe because there's not much interest up here and maybe because people took extra vacation after memorial day.

Right now, this is not a strong high.




Going into today, I'm looking at the exact same things I was yesterday - a re-test of the range high or back to the old range...

"So that's all I'm looking for today. Pullback to 1900 or 92.50-93.50. If 92.50-93.50 breaks, caution short to 1889 but expecting a decent move down if that breaks."



From a weekly profile perspective. We are really just confirming the 1900 level as the bottom of the distribution and
that makes it a stronger level going into today.



In addition to the above, also looking at yesterdays Value Area & Pit low for a pullback. Note that so far, the globex sessions has held at yesterdays VAH.

Obviously we are in areas we haven't traded before, so not much analysis today as there's not much history to play off.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1897 -> 1913
Value 1901 -> 1910
S1 1874.74, R1 1909.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1902 (globex) / 1903.50 -> 1910
Value - 1905.25 -> 1908.25
Globex - 1908.25 -> 1913

Today - 1900, 1892.50-1893.50

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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29th May



We pushed higher yesterday but ended up close to where we started. Tuesdays value area was significant yesterday but it was a low confidence day - certainly in the AM when I do my trading. Volume overall was still fairly low. Over the million mark but not by much.

We still haven't had a pullback to the old range and I still have that in mind...

"So that's all I'm looking for today. Pullback to 1900 or 92.50-93.50. If 92.50-93.50 breaks, caution short to 1889 but expecting a decent move down if that breaks."

This week though - those numbers haven't been very helpful.

As an aside - markets usually develop with a push up, consolidation, push up, consolidate again etc. Stronger trends tend to have more space between the consolidation areas, so there is no reason at all that we MUST test the old high. Still - if we pull back to the old high and them move up, we can still be leaving a "gap" between this range and the next one up. So a re-test does not mean "no space between consolidation areas".



We do have a couple of higher prices we can look at for a re-test too. the low of yesterday - 04.50 and the old high 98.50. If we see buyers supporting either level, then it gives me a bit more confidence to lay into a long trade. As it is, we are on new ground and trading either way is lower confidence for me. Basically I want to see the market "lean on" something and react.



Weekly profile isn't telling us much - 1900 is still the single and below the upper distribution on the profile. So it's a level to watch.



On the split profiles - we can see yesterdays pit session within Tuesdays pit/Wednesdays globex range. We can see potential support developing in 03.50-04.50 area based on Tuesdays/Wednesdays lows - but also we can see 12-14 as potential resistance. So first order of the day hopefullu is to break our of yesterdays range either way and see how buyers/sellers react.

It could well be another weak, choppy day. I'm realy not interested too much if we can't get to 1912 or 1904.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1897 -> 1914
Value 1903.50 -> 1912
S1 1874.74, R1 1909.25


Daily Numbers

Range - 1904.50 -> 1912.50 (pit)/1914 (globex)
Value - 1907.75 -> 1911.25
Globex - 1908 -> 1912

Today - 1912, 1904, 1900, 1892.50-1893.50

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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May 30th

Happy Birthday to me.

1 - It is my Birthday
2 - This thread is a year old (plus 2 days I just noticed)





Still no real pullbacks since the breakout - onwards & upwards. This is the last trading day of March. We opened the month at 1879.50. There is a good chance we'll see window dressing today, that means a push up on the last day of the month. It also means that Monday is when we get to see how "real" this is by whether it collapses after a push up. Of course, anything could happen - so don't blindly go long because window-dressing is one of the possibilities.



Value for the week tops out at 1913 - so we may see support as high as that. Not really much to infer from the weekly profile for me.



We can see the breakout point was around 1914. So we can expand the 1913 level above to the 1913-1914 area. Obviously that is holding right now (4:46 am EST) but will be a level of interest at the open - regardless of which side we actually open.

Note that this was a line in the sand yesterday and it was pretty painful going till we finally broke out of the 1904-1912/1914 range. I certainly didn't have the patience to hold on.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1897 -> 1918
Value 1903.50 -> 1913
S1 1874.74, R1 1909.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 1907.25 -> 1918
Value - 1909 -> 1914
Globex - 1914.25 -> 1918

Today - 1913-1914, 1904, 1900, 1892.50-1893.50

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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 papa15 
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Happy Birthday and congrats on the one year anniversary. I thoroughly enjoy reading your thread to gain your insights into the market.....

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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 tderrick 
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Happy Birthday, my brotha !!

Thank you for all the help and time given


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May 30th

Happy Birthday to me.

Happy Birthday bro'. Mine on Wednesday. Decided to come out of hibernation.

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 WilleeMac 
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Happy BeeeeeeDay

& BeeeeeeeeeeDay

Throw in some 6E, I triple dog dare 'ya

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Happy Birthday bro'. Mine on Wednesday. Decided to come out of hibernation.

Glad to hear it Rob. Isn't 44 grand?

Well - it beats 45...

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3rd June



Another new month. We did have an end of month pop and so first order of this month is to see if we can hold that or if this push up has no strength and we drop back into the prior range.



We've still to have a decent pullback, which I guess is a sign of strength but volume has been pretty low since we got through 1900. So I'm still in low confidence mode and looking for us to come off a bit and to see if buyers are lurking below to defend these prices.



Last weeks profile shows a distribution above 1914. This was tested on Monday so is another potential line in the sand. Below that, I expect a grind to 1908.



On the split globex/pit profiles we can see that the 1914 area (1913.75-1914.25) has acted as support which confirms the 1914 level above.

So first order of the day, depending on how we open is any reaction off yesterdays VAL of 1919. If we move down from there, looking for buyers at 1914. To the upside we have the all time high and yesterdays VAH of 1923.50.

If recent history is anything to go buy, we won't get to the downside levels or stop at the upside levels! Still - that's what I look for...

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1897 -> 1922.25
Value 1901 -> 1913
S1 1809.25, R1 1928

Daily Numbers
Range - 1913.75 -> 1925 (pit) / 1924.25 (globex)
Value - 1919 -> 1923.50
Globex - 1918.50 -> 1922.50

Today - 1913.75-1914.25, 1904, 1900, 1892.50-1893.50

Long Term- 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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 Mtype 
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Happy Birthday Pete!

May I suggest some addition to the 4h chart of yours?

A simple volume profile that could tell unknown parts of the story..



Thanks for sharing!

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A BeeeeDay ride for 'ya (Isle of Man TT)



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Glad to hear it Rob. Isn't 44 grand?

Well - it beats 45...

Feels remarkably like I did yesterday when I was 43 Pedro lol.......

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