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DTs Pre Market Prep
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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #261 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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14th May

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Yesterdays volume was just under 1.1 million, which is pretty feeble. We traded between the old high and 1900 - making it up to 98.50. It does look like there's not much interest in trading through 1900. It is possible that the break of 1900 brings some excitement but from where I'm sitting, I'm not banking on that. Still, if there was an opportunity to get long into it with a good backstop, I'd take it.

We have broken the 60-80 range and the old high of 92.50 but since that we have seen lackluster trading. This does not bode well for continuation upwards.

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This weeks profile shows a pop up, we can see there is an upper distribution between 92.50 to 96.50. In terms of making new highs, building volume aka price acceptance is a good thing. Trouble is if it drops through the bottom of 92.50, there's not much to catch it toll we get back to 80-82. We also have a downside reference at 86.75 which could stall it.

What I'd like to see is a pop up to maybe 1910 and then come back to 92.50 OR a bit of a sell off to a downside reference point - to wash some of the sellers out.

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We can see on the split globex/pit profile that we've been just ticking through the old high but we've not held below it.

So
- a pop thru 1900 could gather buyers but I think it's low probability
- a pop to 1910 and a retrace back to 1900 or 92.50 would be interesting from the long side
- a sell off to 86.75 or 80-82 would also be interesting from the long side
- for shorts - same as yesterday - if we drop through 78.50 - I think we'll see 60 and maybe 25.25.
- Of course - we might not see any of the above prices and we could well just be in for a chop day in which the game is to decide if it's worth playing that range...


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1874.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1887 -> 1897
S1 1857, R1 1887.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1892 -> 1898.50
Value - 1892.50 > 1895
Globex - 1891.25 -> 1897.25

For today - 1880-1882, 1886.75

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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  #262 (permalink)
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May 15th

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After the three lackluster days (yesterday 1.2 million). We are finally at an area of interst. From Tuesday

"If we come down - I'm looking at 80-82 to hold the market for more upside. It's possible that 78.50 could hold it but below that I'll be looking for 60 as a target. If 60 breaks, then we have to consider the larger move down. For today though if it breaks 78.50, I'm looking for 60. If it holds 80-82, I'm looking for new highs."

We had the 86.76 as a weaker line in the sand but we've actually got downto 82. It wasn't a big sell off yesterday, so I am not short biased going into today. I think we needed to pullback a bit. So today, I need us to hold that area. Below 78.50, I think shorts will step in.

Today, I'm hoping to see a little more decisiveness. Looking to see if buyers step in at these prices at the open or if sellers play a break of 78.50.

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The profile looks a bit healthier now too - we have a wider upper distribution. It's not telling us much more in terms of prices though - just a healthier distribution of trading. It's still not a strong high but it looks stronger than yesterday.

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We can see the low yesterday was a tick above 82. I'm still bullish down to 80. Globex is rotating around yesterdays close so far and holding the low. On the bear side. we have rejected yesterdays VAL in the Globex session but it's 4:20am and not too much to read into that. I'm looking for an open that tests the 80-82 area for a long. If it fails and goes below 78.50 - Im looking for shorts to step in.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1874.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1886.25 -> 1897
S1 1857, R1 1887.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1882 -> 1893.25 (pit) / 1897.25 (globex
Value - 188.25 > 1895
Globex - 1888.25 -> 1892.75

For today - 1880-1882

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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  #263 (permalink)
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16th May

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From Tuesday & Thursday:

"If we come down - I'm looking at 80-82 to hold the market for more upside. It's possible that 78.50 could hold it but below that I'll be looking for 60 as a target. If 60 breaks, then we have to consider the larger move down. For today though if it breaks 78.50, I'm looking for 60. If it holds 80-82, I'm looking for new highs."

In yesterdays Globex session we did poke a few ticks through 80 but basically it was holding. Then in the pit session, we broke the 78.50 and as expected went to 60 (well if you look in the levels below, our level was 59.50 and it went to 59).

So now we have a few scenarios to consider.

Red - we now revert back to rotating around 60-80 we held for the past 3 weeks before the breakout upside
Yellow - we proceed down to complete the larger range, down to 25.25
Orange - with 60 holding, we have shaken the "future sellers" out and are now in a position where we can properly move though 1900.

It was weak above 1900 but as previously stated - all buyers on the way up had to exit by selling - so maybe it was just a matter of too many sellers up there.

so today - 1859.50 is a line in the sand - if we crack that we can get to 1840 fairly quickly and then 25.25.
If 59.50 holds, then 80.50 above us may stop the up move and above that I expect us to make an attempt at the highs.

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The weekly profile does have a single print at 1870 and a lower distribution that needs to break for more upside. So we do have to consider that 1870 could actually stop the market and we might just chop around 1860-1870 today.

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This lower range is holding in todays Globex session so far as is yesterdays VAL. We do have news at 8:30 and 9:55. It's possible that 9:30-9:55 is a bit choppy ahead of that news. If it's still choppy at 10:30 - I'll not hang around.

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A quick look at yesterdays volume profile. You can see we opened at 1881 and then we got down to 1879.00 and 11,662 contracts traded. Just a couple of ticks above our line in the sand at 78.40. This was an attempt to hold the market and we can see that 78.50-77.75 have very few contracts - that's basically the longs at 11662 bailing out as it broke the level. If you missed the break, just below at 75.75-76.50 you have another volume cluster - a chance to get on the short side.

So today - eyes on 59.50 to see if buyers step in or the market collapses and eyes on 80.50 if we get there.
On the upside, if we get through 70, there doesn't seem to be much stopping us moving quickly to the 80 level.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1859.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1877 -> 1898.50
S1 1857, R1 1887.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1859 -> 1881.50 (pit) / 1888.50 (globex)
Value - 1860.75 > 1868.75
Globex - 1864.50 -> 1868.50

For today - 1870

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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  #264 (permalink)
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19th May

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Today the scenario is pretty much as it was on Friday. Will we revert back to rotating 60-80 again or find our way out of that range?

Red - looks for us to revert to the 1825.25-1890 range and orange to break our for a new high. So first order of the day is to break out of the 60-80 area. I'll be watching 59.59 & 80.50 areas specifically to see if they hold and play that accordingly.

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We do have the potential for the market holding around 78 based on last weeks profile and also for a move down to stop at 1870 - the high of the lower distribution from last week. If we move through 70, then I'll target 61 - the low of that range. If we hold 70, I think we should pop up to 80 fairly quickly.

Obviously a break below last weeks lows should see us head down to 1825.

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Here's a look at the 70 level, we can see it acted as resistance and is where we broke upside from, so I like the idea of a retrace back to there for a long if we open above 70. If we open below 70, it could again act as resistance. It's certainly been a significant area. Right now we are at 67 - but in a pretty weak Globex session, so I'm not reading too much into these price levels. I want to see where the pit opens and then see what happens at 60 & 70 areas.

It's not an easy one to call but we do have clear lines in the sand.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1859.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1868.50 -> 1897.50
S1 1856.25, R1 1895.75


Daily Numbers

Range - 1861.25 -> 1875.75
Value - 1863.75 > 1869.75
Globex - 1865.75 -> 1877.50

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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  #265 (permalink)
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20th May

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We got to the top of out 60-80 range and got as high as 83. So today I'm looking to see if that holds or we drop back into 60-80. If we do drob thru 80 with some aggression, I'll expect to see 60. Above us - I'd like to see a pop up and then come down and retest the 80-82 to gather steam for a run of the highs.

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We've also got another potential line in the sane at 78.25 below us. So to be sure for a short - I'll wait for that to break. This brings back memories of last week.

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We can see the 78.25 area was also close the afternoon pullback yesterday. Of course, we have VAL below it and all the usual suspect areas but basically it's.

Push up and a downside test for a long.
Below 78.25, expect to see 60.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1859.00 -> 1898.50
Value 1868.50 -> 1897.50
S1 1856.25, R1 1895.75


Daily Numbers

Range - 1865.75 (globex)/ 1869.25 -> 1883
Value - 1876.75 > 1882.75
Globex - 1879.25 -> 1884.50

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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  #266 (permalink)
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May 21st

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Suck it up, people....

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As per yesterday....

"We got to the top of our 60-80 range and got as high as 83. So today I'm looking to see if that holds or we drop back into 60-80. If we do drop thru 80 with some aggression, I'll expect to see 60. Above us - I'd like to see a pop up and then come down and retest the 80-82 to gather steam for a run of the highs."

We got to 64.75 - so the range hasn't completed downside yet.

So again today - same thing really - looking for the downside of the 60-80 range to hold - knowing we've had a tendency to poke through both sides and that whilst the overall range is acting as a magnet, it's not a clean range..

If we do get a break either side, then I'll be looking for it to come back and test the outside of the range for a continuation. So basically - no going long into 80 or short into 60 for me.

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Not a great deal of help this one!

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Interesting that Mon Pit/Tue Globex made a "p" formation and Tue Pit/Wed Globex made a "b" formation - so we should be on the lookout for today doing the opposite of what yesterday did. Mind you - seeing as we are looking at a 60-80 range that really doesn't tell us much new information. If yesterdays lows break, we still don't have much more to play off because it's into the low of the range.

Yesterday we had 1874 as low for the first few hours, that broke down and we got a single at 1873.25 and then we pulled back to 1873 in the afternoon., so we can also watch out for the 73-74 area today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1864.75 -> 1884.50
Value 1870 -> 1883
S1 1856.25, R1 1895.75


Daily Numbers

Range - 1864.75 -> 1880.75
Value - 1864.75 > 1876.35
Globex - 1866.50 -> 1873

Today - 1873-1874

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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  #267 (permalink)
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BTW - thanks to everyone that 'thanks' these posts - it's always nice to know I'm not just talking to myself and I appreciate you taking time to press the button.

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  #268 (permalink)
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BTW - thanks to everyone that 'thanks' these posts - it's always nice to know I'm not just talking to myself and I appreciate you taking time to press the button.

Hi Pete.

You are getting so good at these Pre-market Preps that perhaps you could consider a futures.io (formerly BMT) webinar in future showing us how you do what you do here. Would surely make a lot more sense to us than trying to decipher Dalton. Oh wait, why not write a book too?!

Richard
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  #269 (permalink)
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RichardHK View Post
Hi Pete.

You are getting so good at these Pre-market Preps that perhaps you could consider a futures.io (formerly BMT) webinar in future showing us how you do what you do here. Would surely make a lot more sense to us than trying to decipher Dalton. Oh wait, why not write a book too?!

I'd do a webinar....

But a book - I have 2 kids here already fighting for my time!

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  #270 (permalink)
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May 22nd

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We popped out of our 60-80 area, but volume wasn't huge - about 1.3 million contracts. The above scenario - for a revisit to the top of that range before moving up is what I'd prefer to see before a long. So a move back to 80-82 area would leave me with decent room for another run at 1900.

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We can see an upper distribution that has spent most time in the 80-82 area - below 80, it starts to thin out a little but not much so it does look like any move back downside into the 60-80 range will be choppy.

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Yesterday we said:

"Interesting that Mon Pit/Tue Globex made a "p" formation and Tue Pit/Wed Globex made a "b" formation - so we should be on the lookout for today doing the opposite of what yesterday did. Mind you - seeing as we are looking at a 60-80 range that really doesn't tell us much new information. If yesterdays lows break, we still don't have much more to play off because it's into the low of the range."

That is basically what happened - we got the "P" on Monday and followed with a down day, then the "b" on Tuesday was followed with an up day. Not a shock considering we were at the bottom of the range.

Obviously now we have popped out of the range, so we need to know if it'll continue or go back to 60 (and then possibly to 25).

Also yesterday.

"Yesterday we had 1874 as low for the first few hours, that broke down and we got a single at 1873.25 and then we pulled back to 1873 in the afternoon. So we can also watch out for the 73-74 area today."

And interestingly 73-74 was significant yesterday - but from above not below - we opened at 75, then moved down but buyers stepped in at 74.50. So today I'm still looking at 73-74 as a level of interest. So if we do come back into the range, we may come back and test 73-74 before making a run back to the highs. So a break of 80 doesn't necessarily mean a run to 60.

So basically the plan is - see if 80-82 holds for upside, then consider that 73-74 might hold for upside if it doesn't. Below that I expect to see 60.

Of course, still watching the usual suspect levels for any reaction.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1864.75 -> 1890.25
Value 1870 -> 1884.50
S1 1856.25, R1 1895.75


Daily Numbers
Range - 1866.50 (globex) / 1874.50 (pit) -> 1886.50
Value - 1878.75> 1886.50
Globex - 1883 -> 1890.50

Today - 1873-1874

Other - 1892.50, 1880.50, 1867.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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