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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,917 / 920
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old March 10th, 2014, 06:07 AM   #211 (permalink)
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10th March

We should start rolling over to June contract this week. It's always worth keeping an eye on volumes for both and then moving to June contract when the volume moves there.

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We are back down to the break out point 1866.50. That's a line in the sand for us with 1856.75 & 1846.50 below that which are also potential points of support. 56.75 is a minor level so if 66.50 breaks I'll be short biased with 46.50 as a target but wary of 56.75 holding.

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The Globex session has so far mostly kept in the upper distribution area from last week which has a lot of 1867. So the 66.50 area significance is backed up by this. Also - looking at the profile, it does look like we have a clear run down to 1850 if the 66.50 area breaks.

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On the split globex/pit profiles, we can see that Friday we had a down day following consolidation at the highs. IT seems unlikely we'll hit Fridays high but the Value high at 1877.75 is acheivable and it would be good to see that tested. If buyers step in at that point, then it makes a stronger case to the downside, especially if we then break the value low at 71.75.

On the other hand we are set to open in Fridays Value Area, so a downside test to 71.75 and buyers jumping in could see us make back the lost ground from Friday.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1887.50
Value - 1846.25 -> 1887.25
S1 - 1844.25, R1 - 1899.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1869.25 -> 1884.75 (pit) / 1887.50 (globex)
Value - 1871.75-> 1877.75
Globex - 1867.75 -> 1878.75

Other - 1866.50, 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old March 11th, 2014, 09:24 AM   #212 (permalink)
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11th March

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From a longer term perspective, we are pretty much where we were yesterday.

We are back down to the break out point 1866.50. That's a line in the sand for us with 1856.75 & 1846.50 below that which are also potential points of support. 56.75 is a minor level so if 66.50 breaks I'll be short biased with 46.50 as a target but wary of 56.75 holding.

We poked through 66.50 by 3 ticks but couldn't hold below it.

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Unsurprisingly, we have a similar story on the weekly profile. We dipped below the upper distribution on the profile but we are now back above it and in the Globex we have been up to 1879, which is just below the top of that upper distribution. The 1880 level is also a line in the sand. For upside continuation.

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In yesterdays pit session, we made it 2 ticks short of Fridays VAH, then went down and poked through the 66.50 area. The VAH was an area we could expect sellers to jump in and the 66.50 are was an area we could expect buyers to jump in. In both cases they did but in both cases it appears it was just short term money playing to the other end of the range.

So today, we are about where we were going into yesterday. A balanced market. We will look to see if yesterdays value area gives us a clue, if not 1880 and 1866.50-1867 are the major lines in the sand either side.

Globex range is pretty small today, so I feel a move up to 1880 has more potential for causing acceleration than a grind down to 1866.50

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1887.50
Value - 1846.25 -> 1887.25
S1 - 1844.25, R1 - 1899.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1865.75 -> 1877.75 (pit) -> 1878.75 (globex)
Value - 1870.00 -> 1874
Globex - 1873.75 -> 1879

Other - 1866.50, 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old March 12th, 2014, 05:57 AM   #213 (permalink)
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12th March

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Yesterday we did take a poke up above the 1880 level we were looking at but then sellers stepped in and we pushed through the 1866.50 level. In the Globex session so far (5am EST) that 1866.50 is providing resistance. If that continues into the day session, I see us getting to 1850.

We do have a minor level at 1856.75, and we do have this upward channel people are looking at too. The next major level of potential support below us is 46.50.

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We can see we tested the upside of the bulge in the profile from last week but there were no buyers up there. We could not hold the bottom, so my most likely scenario now is to go to that lower distribution adound 1850.

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We can see the failure through the 1880 here. The Globex session has stayed below 1866.50 so far and that is a major level and it will be bullish if we stay below that line. In fact, that might mean we have an interesting day despite the lack of news.

The Globex range is fairly small so far. Off the open, I'll be looking for 66.50 to hold and if it doesn't and we go upside, I expect a churn to the upside. On the other hand, if we do go down, I think we have the potential for sellers to put in a decent run.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 1861.00 -> 1882.25
Value - 1869.50 -> 1878.50
S1 - 1844.25, R1 - 1899.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1863 -> 1882.25
Value - 1865.75 -> 1876.75
Globex - 1861 -> 1866.50

Other - 1866.50, 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old March 13th, 2014, 09:45 AM   #214 (permalink)
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No prep for me today & tomorrow - it's rollover, so I wont be trading.

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Old March 17th, 2014, 05:10 AM   #215 (permalink)
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17th March

Back again. Note this is an early prep today - 3:30am EST.

I have rolled into the 06 contract now so all the levels have been adjusted to the new contract. So if you have the old levels on your charts, replace with the ones below.

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Big picture is we are currently in either a retrace in an uptrend OR we just saw a range extension and we'll carry on down now to the bottom of the range before turning up to the top again. The bottom of the range could be any major level down to 1725. Even at 1725, I wouldn't see us as being in a down trend - that's only back to 5th Feb low.

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Zooming in a but we can see the major lows with the red, orange, yellow arrows and the 1725 low at the bottom. Looking left, there's a case for us having already hit a range low and that we could now be back up to the 1880s. So for me it's key to see if we can stay above 1825.25 this week, then get through 1839.50 at which point, we should really run for the highs.

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We started out in the Globex session dipping below last weeks range and below the bulk of the lower distribution on last weeks profile. We can see above that lower distribution we have a single print at 1846.50 - that's a line in the sand for any move up. In the Globex session we have so far made it as high as 1837.25 - so it's got to just underneath the bulk of that lower distribution. If we can break 37.25, I suspect it'll grind to 46.50. If we can get above that, we should be able to get to 55 with little resistance.

To the downside, I can see us making decent headway if we can get back through the Globex lows - but then it's a matter of looking @ the 2 hour chart for clues, not the profile.

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On Friday, there was still a fair amount of activity in the March contract. We have a value low at 1836 which has been pierced in the Globex session but we haven't managed to hold it yet. It's worth watching this level from the open whichever side of it we open on. Other than that it's not telling us much.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1875.25
Value 1847.50 -> 1874.50
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1846.25
Value - 1836 -> 1843.50
Globex - 1823.50 -> 1837.25

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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Old March 17th, 2014, 08:41 AM   #216 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
17th March

Back again. Note this is an early prep today - 3:30am EST.

I have rolled into the 06 contract now so all the levels have been adjusted to the new contract. So if you have the old levels on your charts, replace with the ones below.

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Big picture is we are currently in either a retrace in an uptrend OR we just saw a range extension and we'll carry on down now to the bottom of the range before turning up to the top again. The bottom of the range could be any major level down to 1725. Even at 1725, I wouldn't see us as being in a down trend - that's only back to 5th Feb low.

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Zooming in a but we can see the major lows with the red, orange, yellow arrows and the 1725 low at the bottom. Looking left, there's a case for us having already hit a range low and that we could now be back up to the 1880s. So for me it's key to see if we can stay above 1825.25 this week, then get through 1839.50 at which point, we should really run for the highs.

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We started out in the Globex session dipping below last weeks range and below the bulk of the lower distribution on last weeks profile. We can see above that lower distribution we have a single print at 1846.50 - that's a line in the sand for any move up. In the Globex session we have so far made it as high as 1837.25 - so it's got to just underneath the bulk of that lower distribution. If we can break 37.25, I suspect it'll grind to 46.50. If we can get above that, we should be able to get to 55 with little resistance.

To the downside, I can see us making decent headway if we can get back through the Globex lows - but then it's a matter of looking @ the 2 hour chart for clues, not the profile.

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On Friday, there was still a fair amount of activity in the March contract. We have a value low at 1836 which has been pierced in the Globex session but we haven't managed to hold it yet. It's worth watching this level from the open whichever side of it we open on. Other than that it's not telling us much.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1875.25
Value 1847.50 -> 1874.50
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1846.25
Value - 1836 -> 1843.50
Globex - 1823.50 -> 1837.25

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

thanks peter, you were right, "If we can break 37.25, I suspect it'll grind to 46.50"
10 points in 30 min well done

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The fight is fair against oneself
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Old March 17th, 2014, 09:46 AM   #217 (permalink)
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thanks peter, you were right, "If we can break 37.25, I suspect it'll grind to 46.50"
10 points in 30 min well done

be even nicer if it waited till 9:30am EST when I actually start trading...

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Old March 18th, 2014, 09:14 AM   #218 (permalink)
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18th March

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We moved up yesterday, and that does have me thinking the red arrows are the most likely scenario. We have had a reaction off the 1859.50 level so far but that doesn't mean we'll head back down. So I'm still looking for the red arrow scenario and have the yellow arrow as a third. Of course if we can't get through 59.50 or we poke through and roll over, then I'll be short & looking for 1825.25 and below.

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We can see on the weekly profile that we are now heading into the upper distribution from last week. That could mean we'll move up through it slowly but looking left, there's not a major chop zone there yet. We do have the potential to roll over at 1870.75 and we could range 55-70.75 before pushing up through 1880.

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Yesterday in the pit session we first took a dip into Fridays value high but that was rejected, then later we came down to test Fridays high. So a bullish day. The Globex session today is pretty flat, we have traded above Mondays high and below Mondays value area. So from now, I'd like to see Mondays value high 1853.50 hold if not the 1849 area. Even down to 1842 Mondays low, it really wouldn't be that bearish.

So I'm bullish right now, hoping for a test of a key level from Monday and to see buyers step in. I'll not be on the bear until we break yesterdays low.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832 -> 1875.25
Value 1847.50 -> 1874.50
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1823.50 (globex)/1842.75 -> 1855.75
Value - 1849 -> 1853.50
Globex - 1845.50 -> 1859.50

Numbers just for today: 1855, 1870.75 - minor lines in the sand

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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Old March 19th, 2014, 06:52 AM   #219 (permalink)
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19th March

FOMC day today - so will likely be quiet till then.

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As per yesterday, I'm still biased towards a test of the highs up at 1880. Looking above, we have the 1859.50 line which got tested intraday yesterday. I'm bullish anywhere above that point.

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The weekly profile is showing classic trending behaviour - move up, consolidate, move up, consolidate - with decent gaps between the consolidation areas. We still have the top of the upper distribution at 1870 to get through and as per yesterday "We do have the potential to roll over at 1870.75 and we could range 55-70.75 before pushing up through 1880"

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We can see a nice push up yesterday and then todays Globex session is narrow & within yesterdays value area, not a shock being FOMC day but this is an early prep: 5:45am EST. I'll be looking for a test of value initially.

Yesterdays value area is quite narrow, so I probably won't play a short off an upside test but I think a long off a downside reference is good as we still have plenty of momentum upwards.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1823.50 -> 1876
Value 1845.25 -> 1866.25
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1845.50 (globex)/1852.75 -> 1867
Value - 1860.75 -> 1865.75
Globex - 1861 -> 1865.25

Numbers just for today: 1855, 1870.75 - minor lines in the sand

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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Old March 20th, 2014, 09:11 AM   #220 (permalink)
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20th March

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FOMC statement was warmly received yesterday, nice 20 point drop. So that means we have broken the 1859.50 area we were leaning on for more upside and now looking to see if 39.50 or 25.25 hold for more upside.

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On the weekly profile we can see a bulge from 46->54 which is partly the Globex session and partly Mondays activity. I'm writing this at 8am and it's possible the 8:30 Unemployment claims shake us out of this or home sales/Philly Manuf at 10am.

My 2 favored scenarios today are:
1 - Snap back up and take back most of what we lost yesterday
2 - range 46-54 area at these lows

If we do break 46 to the downside then I think we'll see 39.50 and possibly 25.25.

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Yesterday started with us pushing a tick through Tuesdays pit session high and then staying in a 4 point range into the FOMC statement. Globex has so far kept yesterays low but interestingly has not managed to get into yesterdays value area. Those value areas tend to be less meaningful on elongated days anyway - but yesterdays VAL is certainly a point of interest going into today and rejection will be good for shorts.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1823.50 -> 1867.25
Value 1846 -> 1865
S1 - 1818.25, R1 - 1861.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1842 -> 1867.25 (pit)/ 1876.50 (globex)
Value - 1854.25 -> 1866.75
Globex - 1844.75 -> 1853.75

Numbers just for today: 1846, 1854 - minor lines in the sand

Other - 1880.50, 1859.50, 1839.50, 1825.25, 1799.25, 1760.25, 1723.25, 1713.50, 1685.25, 1660.50

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