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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,732 / 918
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old February 24th, 2014, 05:43 AM   #201 (permalink)
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24th Feb

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Here's a daily chart. To me this is just sideways action but I do see how there's an argument for us still being in an upwards channel.

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The 2 hour chart really doesn't show us much more - as discussed last week - looking at the chop to the left, this area was always likely to give us more of the same. Still, it is the last week of the month. This month we started off at 1777.50 and had a low of 1732. So we've have a pretty good month. I am on the lookout for end of month "window dressing" for a potential Friday close above the current all time high of 1846.50.

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The weekly profile shows us with a the bulk of volume last week in the 1831.50-> 1841.50 and a Globex session that traded mostly within that as of typing (3:45am EST). The 31.50-41.50 is where I expect it to be mostly choppy.

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On a split globex/pit profile, we can see that we broke below Fridays lows and a tick below Thursdays Value low. It's not really giving me many clues because Friday and todays Globex so far have just tested the outer bounds of the choppy zone before going back in.

So basically, I'll be looking for rotation below 31.50 and above 41.50 unless we get a strong push out at which points both prices become a line in the sand for a continuation down/up respectively.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1817.25 -> 1844.50
Value - 1831.50 -> 1841.50
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832.75 -> 1844
Value - 1836.75 -> 1842.25
Globex - 1829.25 -> 1839.50


Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 25th, 2014, 05:34 AM   #202 (permalink)
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25th Feb

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Yesterday worked out quite well.

"So basically, I'll be looking for rotation below 31.50 and above 41.50 unless we get a strong push out at which points both prices become a line in the sand for a continuation down/up respectively."

We moved up to 41 at the open and built volume around that area, we then popped up 6 or 7 ticks and came back down to 41.25, held the volume area and shot up from there.

So will we keep these highs into the Friday/Month close? Yesterday we did get 10 points and change above the all time high but are now back below it in the Globex session/ It's normal after a decent push up to give some (or all) back the next day but I favour us keeping these highs till Friday or making more ground upwards.

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Looking at the profiles, we can see that despite coming off the highs, we are still above the top of the "chop zone", so there's no reason to expect choppy action unless we dip below 41.50. Longs will want to stay above this area and if we do start chewing into it, I'd expect us to see a churn down to 31.50. We can see that as well as being the value high from last week, this area is also showing a single print on the weekly profile making that area more significant.

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On the split globex/pit profiles, we can see the Globex session is very narrow so far (4:29 EST) and at the low end of yesterdays value area. Overnight inventory is short so far and off the open, longs will need to get this back within value. If that happens, I expect us to at least test the opposite end of yesterdays value range if not the high.

If we fail at yesterdays value low, then we'll be looking at the 41.50 then 31.50 scenario.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1817.25 -> 1844.50
Value - 1831.50 -> 1841.50
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1829.25 (globex)/ 1837 -> 1856.75
Value - 1845 -> 1855
Globex - 1841.50 -> 1846.75


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 26th, 2014, 08:02 AM   #203 (permalink)
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26th Feb

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Yesterday my expectation was that if we broke 41.50 to the downside, then we'd probably see 31.50. We did break 41.50 and we did get some volume above to lean on for a short but we only got down as low as 37.25. A tick above Mondays pit session low.

I also thought that if lows held we'd see a run to Mondays VAH of 1855 - and we didn't see that either!

Looking at the 2 hour chart there is still an argument for channeling upwards.

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On the weekly profile, we can see it's quite elongated but the most trading activity around 1845. We can see that most trading is also above the 31.50-41.50 chop zone. So I'm still looking at that area as a place to hold for upside.

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As we can see in the split globex/pit profiles. Yesterdays pit session low was about where Mondays pit session low was. Once we'd held that we did work into Mondays value area but we came off again. Not a bad day in terms of range but not great in terms of playing off key areas.

Globex is almost 100% long, so the chance of a sell off from the open is decent - as long as we stay above 1846 for the rest of the Globex session.

In terms of areas to play off. Upside really is just Globex high and Mondays high. The weekly profile is a bit elongated so I don't trust this weeks Value high that much yet.

I'll consider a move down to bounce off yesterdays VAH 1847.50 to be pretty bullish.

If we get lower to the VAL of 1841, then I'll not be looking for us to make 47.50 and maybe 1851 but not rush to a new high. I'd consider that to be a sign we'll stay within Mondays range again. We could well be just building volume here/accepting new prices before we have another leg up.

All eyes on the Month end on Friday.

Obviously - if we go straight up off the open, that will be very bullish as long as we don't stop at the Globex high.

Home sales at 10:00am too, just to keep it interesting.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1856.75
Value - 1839.75 -> 1852.75
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1837.25 -> 1851
Value - 1841 -> 1847.50
Globex - 1846.25 -> 1853.25


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 27th, 2014, 07:40 AM   #204 (permalink)
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27th Feb

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The longer term chart is still not showing signs of a reversal but we can see that below us if the 1837-1838 level breaks, it'll look a lot more bearish. To the upside, we have a level at 1853 - so a fairly narrow band of "lines in the sand" either side.

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On the weekly volume profile, value is from 1841 -> 1851.50 - which is just inside the range marked out above. It's fairly common to go sideways after a push up. On the other hand, it's always better if we actually clear the prior price range before moving sideways. As such, I am seeing this push up to 1856 more as range extension than the start of a new trend. That means a move back down to 1806.25 if this is the case. Still - we could break either way.

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Yesterday we had

"If we get lower to the VAL of 1841, then I'll not be looking for us to make 47.50 and maybe 1851 but not rush to a new high. I'd consider that to be a sign we'll stay within Mondays range again. We could well be just building volume here/accepting new prices before we have another leg up. "

We got down to 1840.25 - 3 ticks below the VAL, then to 1851 before moving down to 1838, 3 ticks above Tuesday pit session low.

So we are just rotating around the same area. The globex session so far is within yesterdays range. So again today, I'll be looking for a bounce off a value area to take us to the opposite side of the range. If either side of value breaks, I'll look for a retrace back to value but with an eye on yesterdays high/low as a potential hurdle.

We need to break out at some point - it could be tomorrow for an end of month push up but today I'm just looking for signs of a break either side.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1856.75
Value - 1841 -> 1851.50
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1838 -> 1851 (pit)/1853.25 (globex)
Value - 1842.25 -> 1850.25
Globex - 1841.25 -> 1847


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 28th, 2014, 08:02 AM   #205 (permalink)
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28th February

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End of the month today. As of now, we have poked out above the old high of 1846.50 again. We are in a sideways pattern and have been all week. With the end of the month today, there's a reasonable expectation we'll have a pop up. Certainly looking at the above, there's no bearish signs yet.

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Looking at this weeks profile so far. its very evenly distributed as we'd expect when the markets been in a range.

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Yesterday we got as low as Wednesdays low before reversing up. The globex session has moved up to 1855.75 now so in theory we are at the top of the range and be looking to move down. Saying that the range wont last forever and this is the last day of the month. For upside, I'll be looking at a bounce off yesterdays VAL 1844.25 or the Globex low 1849.

We do have a lot of news today - 8:30, 9:45, 9:55, 10:00 - so if the bounce off value occurs in the first 30 mins, it might be hard to hold onto a trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1856.75
Value - 1841 -> 1853
S1 - 1822, R1 - 1845.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832.75 (globex)/ 1838.50 -> 1854.25 (globex)
Value - 1844.25 -> 1852.75
Globex - 1849 -> 1855.75


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old March 3rd, 2014, 08:57 AM   #206 (permalink)
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3rd March

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Right from the start of last week, we had our eyes on a push up into Friday which was also the end of February. We often get these "window dressing" pushes up into month ends. That tends to happen more often when we are already close to the highs.

So with that done, are we now due a correction downwards? If last week was "window dressing" is there reason for more upside this week? Looking at the breakout from the 1846.50 area, there hasn't been a clean break yet. Right from the moment we broke upside, we couldn't stay above the old range. Whilst the upside is still a possibility,I'll be looking for signs that downside levels are breaking for a potential trip down to 1806.25 and possibly all the way down to 1730.25.

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The weekly profile shows us just below value for last week. If we do head up, it's likely to be a churn up to 1850 area. The first line in the sand at the pit session open will be last weeks value low. If we can't get back into value, then chances are sellers will step in to push it down. A hurdle to the downside is last weeks low and if that breaks, it strengthens the case for the low 1800's.

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Thursdays globex low was 1832.75, so that's a level to keep an eye on. We can see we have gapped down overnight and so we do have to consider the fact that overnight inventory is very short and we could well see a snap back up at the open. Above us 1845.25 is Fridays low, so if we do move up and that is rejected, again we should see sellers step in.

So play it by ear, I think it wont take much for the market to get bearish and I think the reaction off the open will be interesting. In fact, there's an argument that either side could get active if they see it move their way off the open - bulls seeing upside in closing the gap and bears seeing downside in being able to make up any ground. So there is an argument for going with the first move.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1866.50
Value - 1840.50 -> 1854
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1845.25 -> 1866.50
Value - 1856.25 -> 1866.25
Globex - 1835.75 -> 1847.00


Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old March 4th, 2014, 07:44 AM   #207 (permalink)
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4th March

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Well, the ES is not giving up on these highs so easily. I am in the same frame of mind as at yesterdays prep...

Right from the start of last week, we had our eyes on a push up into Friday which was also the end of February. We often get these "window dressing" pushes up into month ends. That tends to happen more often when we are already close to the highs.

So with that done, are we now due a correction downwards? If last week was "window dressing" is there reason for more upside this week? Looking at the breakout from the 1846.50 area, there hasn't been a clean break yet. Right from the moment we broke upside, we couldn't stay above the old range. Whilst the upside is still a possibility,I'll be looking for signs that downside levels are breaking for a potential trip down to 1806.25 and possibly all the way down to 1730.25.


I still see no strong evidence pointing either way. So looking for areas that might give a clue.

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We have had a big push up overnight - basically taking back all the ground we lost in the big gap down on Sunday. On a weekly perspective, we need to hold above the value high of last week of 1854. If we don't, then I think we'll work our way down to the value low at 1840.50. We need to stay above last weeks value or we risk traversing it to the other side.

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You can't see it on the above chart but yesterday... Thursdays globex low was 1832.75, so that's a level to keep an eye on

We actually got to 32.25 before turning back up. I we get back there today, it would be an odd place to stop again or even to get there. I'm leaving the 32.75 from out long term numbers unchanged as it's around the same area.

In terms of numbers - we are so far off yesterdays range that yesterdays high of 49.50 is a way off. So unless we return to yesterdays range or the top of last weeks value 1854 - I think it's a matter of letting value develop intraday and playing off that.

Note also that yesterday was very illiquid with depth in the low hundreds a lot of the time. Stops had to be widened yesterday because of the extra volatility. So watch out for that again today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1866.50
Value - 1840.50 -> 1854
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1849.50
Value - 1838.75 -> 1845.25
Globex - 1842.75 -> 1865.00

Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old March 5th, 2014, 07:55 AM   #208 (permalink)
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5th March

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Another push up yesterday. It would be good for us to stay above the old 46.50 high now and not cross back over it - otherwise I'm still a bit wary of this push up.

A test and hold of 55.75 or even 66.50 would be bullish. We could of course start ranging 1832-1870/80 but again I'd like to see a clean break before I start looking at a new range. If not then any potential range low is still 1806.25 and potentially as low as 1730.

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Just below those 2 points is the value high from last week at 1854. As per yesterday, I see us going back to 1840 if that breaks. This week we have moved up, put in a little range, then moved up again, so from that perspective this is trending behavior which points upside.

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On the split globex/pit profiles, we can see that we have popped out of the Feb high of 1866.50 which is 2 ticks above Mondays high. Yesterdays VAL is 1866.75 - so there should be eyes on this level as we head into todays pit session. I don't have anything above us other than the globex high.

So I'm looking for 66.50 to hold for more upside. If that breaks the next area is the 54-55.75 area. So if we get to these I have a line in the sand. If we go straight up, then I have to focus on the areas that develop intraday and try to play off them.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1874.75
Value - 1835.25 -> 1862.25
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1842.75 (globex)/1862.25 (pit) -> 1874.75
Value - 1866.75 -> 1871.75
Globex - 1867.75 -> 1873.25

Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old March 6th, 2014, 05:54 AM   #209 (permalink)
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6th March

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Very low volume yesterday, just under 1.3M and a low range day too. Unemployment at 8:30am might help shake things up a bit. We are still moving up but as yet we've had no decent downside tests. As per yesterday "A test and hold of 55.75 or even 66.50 would be bullish".

We are churning up, we are trading in uncharted waters. I was asked on Tuesday what I'd have as an upside target and really I don't have one and I do not plan to fade these highs. I Seeing us move down to 66.50 and hold would give me a good trade as I'd have some upside expectation. Right now there's not much but developing intraday areas to trade off for me and with the range being low, that doesn't leave much on the table.

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We are building some volume at the highs but these are low volume days. I see the bottom of this bulge at the high - 1867 as a line in the sand. That's just above our 66.50 line mentioned above. If that breaks I can see us heading to the bottom bulge at 1850.

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In terms of intraday levels. We have yesterdays low and value low around the same area. So for me - it's waiting for a test and if there's no test I'll be looking for smaller trades off the profile.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1877.75
Value - 1843.50 -> 1877.25
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1867.75 (globex)/1869.25 (pit) -> 1875.50
Value - 1866.75 -> 1871.75
Globex - 1870.50 -> 1873.50

Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old March 7th, 2014, 07:22 AM   #210 (permalink)
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7th March

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Volume was low again yesterday, as was the range. We do have unemployment at 8:30 am but otherwise it's shaping up to be another lackluster day.

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We have been trading mostly above 1867, so if that breaks we could easily see 1850. I don't expect much from an upside break because they have all been very weak this week.

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Later yesterday, we had a downside test of Wednesdays VAH. It came a little late in the day but it's worth watching this area again. We look set to open within yesterdays value area, so a fade of either side if we have another slow start is a possibility.

Still - I really don't expect much unless the news helps us out.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1832.25 -> 1881.00
Value - 1844.50 -> 1881.00
S1 - 1840.75, R1 - 1870.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 1871 (globex)/1873.75 (pit) -> 1881
Value - 1876.25 -> 1880.25
Globex - 1875.50 -> 1880.25

Other - 1856.75, 1846.50,1832.75, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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