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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,892 / 920
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old February 10th, 2014, 07:24 AM   #191 (permalink)
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10th February

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The VIX is settling down now, so we should see decent liquidity today. There's no real intraday news, so it should be a fairly well behaved ES.

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In terms of scenarios, this picture from last week spells out the 2 scenarios I'm looking for the 1806.25 is my key area, if we get through that, we should see 1850.

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The 2 hour chart doesn't show much more. You can see more clearly how we have paused at the 1794 level. Above us we also have the 2 week high at 1801.25 which might be minor resistance as we move up.

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The weekly profile shows we just about pushed through last weeks high in the Globex session. We can see below us an upper distribution with about 1785 being the top of it. For continued upside, I want to see this area hold - maybe not to the tick but certainly I don't want to see it start eating it's way down past 85 to the low 80's. If it does, then my expectation will change to go to the bottom of that upper distribution towards 1760.

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Overnight action is fairly neutral as at typing (6:20 am EST). Fridays VAH is 1786.50. So we'll look to hold 1785-1786.50 area for continued upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1732 -> 1794
Value - 1732.50 -> 1767.50
S1 - 1752.25, R1 - 1814.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1758.25 (pit)/1772.25-> 1794
Value - 1773 -> 1786.50
Globex - 1787.25 -> 1794.50 (3:00 am EST)

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 11th, 2014, 04:51 AM   #192 (permalink)
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11th Feb (3:30 am est)

An early one today so bear in mind that the Globex picture will change. New Fed Chairman speaking at 10am along with some employment numbers. Should be interesting. I'll miss the Bernanke.

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Opinion still unchanged in terms of likely screnarios. The 1806.25 area above us is key in terms of a line in the sand, if we can pop that, I see us running the highs and if not I see us going back down to 1730.

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We do still have the 2 week high at 1801.25 to the left and I could see it turning there but it's a minor level for me.

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Yesterday we discussed that we didn't want to drop into the upper distribution of last weeks volume profile and we are still above it which is good for the upside. If we do venture into it, then I can see us hitting 1760 if we get through 1785.

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Also yesterday we discussed Fridays VAH being at 1786.50, just above that 1785 area. This held yesterday so we could not even make it into prior days value area.

But yesterday was a tough day. With VIX settling down, my expectation was that the liquidity would be back but far from it. The morning started with liquidity extremely low and we regularly saw it move 3 ticks in an instant. Despite this additional "wiggle" - we still had a fairly small overall range on the day.

So less liquidity - more intra-bar volatility but overall volatility low. This is something you don't often see. In effect you MUST widen your stops to allow for that extra wiggle but there's really no additional upside as the overall range is not larger. In the first hour we were in a range but as it came to the extremes, many times it just didn't give you time to finesse an entry, you got to the low and next thing you were 3-4 ticks off it. Pretty frustrating that.

So today, if we get low liquidity again, I'll look to play the ranges but be in the frame of mind that they just might not hang around any extreme long enough to take a good entry and be a bit more "Zen" about it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1732 -> 1794
Value - 1732.50 -> 1767.50
S1 - 1752.25, R1 - 1814.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1786.25(globex)/ 1786.75 (pit) -> 1795.50
Value - 1789.75 -> 1794.25
Globex - 1794.25 -> 1803.50

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 12th, 2014, 08:53 AM   #193 (permalink)
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12th Feb

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We broke through 1806.25 with just a small pause. Now I have nothing between our current price and the all time high. We've had a good run up and it wouldn't be a bad thing to see a fairly neutral day or a down day. People that has bought contracts are future seller and the higher we go the more sellers we collect. Sometimes you need some of these out of the way before we can move up. My target is the same I'm just looking at 6 days of higher closes (granted some were still neutral) and a bit wary of a neutral/down day. I'm still biased long though.

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We can see we've barely touched last weeks range. With yesterday and today we now have an upper distribution. with a low of about 1811. That's going to be our first area to look for a downside test.

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On Monday our pit session low was Fridays Value High. Tuesday, our pit session low was Mondays High. Looking at the Globex session it looks like we are set to open within Tuesdays range. We do have a single print at 1811.25 - which coincides with the upper distribution of the weekly profile. We have held that so far but I think we should also look at 1803.25, yesterdays value low. If this does turn into a rotational day where the market has a bit of a pause, then we may visit both ends of yesterdays value area which would still give us a decent range.

I don't want 1806.25 to break convincingly but I'll still be bullish down to that 1803.25 area. Bullish but with the expectation we could take a break from moving up today.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1786.25 -> 1819.50
Value - 1786.50 -> 1806.00
S1 - 1752.25, R1 - 1814.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1794.25 (globex)/1795.25 -> 1819.50
Value - 1803.25 -> 1819.25
Globex - 1811.25 -> 1819

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 13th, 2014, 08:18 AM   #194 (permalink)
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13th February

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As per yesterdays prep, we have had a good run up and probably need to come off a bit, get rid of some of the sellers before we can move up.

We have moved back a little, back to 1806.50 so far, just a tick above out 1806.25 area. So the order of the day for me is to look at which levels breaking mean a deeper pullback and which ones breaking/holding mean more upside today.

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The red lines are the levels from Tuesday we were looking to hold for upside in Wednesdays session. Obviously 1806.25 is a level for us and a break of that means a deeper pullback is likely. The upper one is a single print and close enough to yesterdays low that we can just use yesterdays low 1812. The lower one is Tuesdays Value low 1803.25. The yellow line is yesterdays VAL.

I'm looking for 1806.25 to hold with a secondary line to hold @ 1803.25. If either of these do hold, then I think we should have a decent move up. If these levels break, then I can see us running down to 1794.

Above us, I'm looking for us to get through the 1811.25->1812.00 area then through yesterdays VAL of 1813.25. If go up there first and we can't get through there, then I think it's a good shorting opportunity. If we can get through, then I see us heading up to make more headway towards 1850.

In between these levels, I'm not too fussy about trading. Globex session is mostly short so far, so a move up off the open is high probability.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1786.25 -> 1823.25
Value - 1797.25-> 1823.25
S1 - 1752.25, R1 - 1814.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1811.25 (globex)/1812 (pit) -> 1823.25
Value - 1813.25 -> 1818.25
Globex - 1806.50 -> 1817.50 (7:18 am est)

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 14th, 2014, 06:18 AM   #195 (permalink)
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14th February


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As we move up towards the top, I have the yellow scenario as most likely but will be looking for a break of this range too. If we do break 1850, I expect 1850 to get tested from above too. For now though, in terms of the long term picture, I don't really see a lot of obstacles between here and 1850. That's not to say it can't suddenly turn down, just that I can't see a place where it's likely based on the way I look at things.

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As at writing (5am EST), most of the Globex action is below Thursdays close but we are currently working our way up. The globex action is within yesterdays range.

As the market is going up, I think we can keep things simple again today.

If the market moves down off the open, look for one of the downside references to hold. The single print at 1816.50 has been pierced by 2 ticks in Globex, so look for that to hold again. If not the Val at 1814.75. If either of these hold we should be able to get back to the VAH at 1827. If the levels break, we could see a move down to 1806.25 and potentially 1802.

If we move up off the open, then look for 1827 to hold and if it does, then sellers should come in and you could target the VAL at 1814.75. Obviously, if it breaks we could have a run up as the shorts from the globex session unwind.

Of course, we could open outside yesterdays range but I would still be looking at those levels to hold/break as we come back to test.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1786.25 -> 1827.50
Value - 100.75 -> 1826.75
S1 - 1752.25, R1 - 1814.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1802.25 (globex)/ 1803 -> 1827.00
Value - 1814.75 -> 1827.00
Globex - 1816 -> 1827.50
Single Prints - 1816.50, 1811.25

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 18th, 2014, 09:30 AM   #196 (permalink)
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18th February

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We are close to the all time highs now but if you look left you can see there has been a lot of chop in this area. So we do have the possibility of some rangebound action before we make a move.

The yellow arrows - a test of the old highs followed by a move down to 1806.25 is my most likely scenario. The red arrow - continuation up and forming a range higher up is my next most likely scenario.

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If we don't move up, then we may have a downside test first. We can see the red arrow pointing to a single print on the weekly profile at 1828.00. That is the top of a bulge in the profile which bottoms out at 1811.50. So if we do get down to 1828.00, then I want to hold and if it doesn't, I think we will grind down to 1811.50.

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We can see here that the high of the 12th is at 1827.50 - just a few ticks below the single print from the weekly profile. Above that is Fridays VAL at 1829.25. I'm going to ignore yesterdays session pretty much and so I want 27.50-29.25 area to hold for more upside.

So for my numbers - I'm using Friday as "previous day" and everything since as the "globex" session. Obviously, if Fridays high holds or the following high holds, then I'll be looking to play downside back to Fridays VAL 1829.25.

Obviously - wary of being caught in the middle of an area we have chopped around in.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1786.25 -> 1838.75
Value - 1799.75 -> 1827.75
S1 - 1801.50, R1 - 1853.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1816 (globex)/ 1821.50 -> 1838.75
Value - 1829.25 -> 1837.75
Globex - 1831.74 -> 1840.25
Single Prints - 1827.75

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; February 18th, 2014 at 10:04 AM.
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Old February 18th, 2014, 10:29 AM   #197 (permalink)
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thx for posting

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Old February 19th, 2014, 09:03 AM   #198 (permalink)
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19th February

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Well - no great shock that we were in a range yesterday. In fact, for those that didn't read yesterdays prep - read it first, so I don't have to repeat myself - https://futures.io/trading-journals/27543-dts-pre-market-prep-5.html#post391170

The situation is effectively the same but we now have a full trading day to give us some levels to work off today.

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We have had a poke down through yesterdays low overnight but we haven't yet got to the 1827.50-1828 level which really needs to hold for us to hit the 1850 before we dip back down to 1811.

So - into the open I'm looking for a re-test of the Globex low for more upside. If not, then the 1827.50-1828 level for a long. It that area breaks, I'll be looking for a short target of 1811. If we get back up onto the 1833 area or above, I will sit on my hands because I think that's an area that will be choppy.

For shorts - a bounce off 1839-40 isn't as appealing today as it was yesterday. With yesterdays VAL at 1836.75, this could be as low as we go.

Patience is key at these levels IMO.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1786.25 -> 1838.75
Value - 1799.75 -> 1827.75
S1 - 1801.50, R1 - 1853.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1831.50 -> 1840
Value - 1836.75 -> 1839.75
Globex - 1830.00 ->1838.25

Short term level - 1827.50-1828

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; February 19th, 2014 at 10:20 AM.
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Old February 20th, 2014, 09:00 AM   #199 (permalink)
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20th Feb

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From one perspective, you could say that the highs have been tested and we are now back to test the bottom of the range - which could be 1806.27 but could be 1767.25 or even 1730.

On the other hand, the run up from 1730 (ish) area this month didn't really have any major pullbacks, so this could quite easily be a pullback prior to a proper run to the highs.

Usually after failure to reach the highs like this I'd be confident of at least 06.25 being hit but I need more confirmation before following that bias.

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So I'm looking to see if there's a test that will help with the decision making. We have broken the 27.50-28.00 level discussed earlier this week and as discussed that puts us in the bulge on the profile above. Looking at this, the bottom of that bulge is 1811.50, so I have that as a line in the sand. If we hold it, I think we should be able to get back to 1827.

Above us we have the black line, the "single print"at 1829.75. Again, that's a line in the sand and if it holds I think we see sellers come in. If we get through it, I can see us working through the bulge on this weeks profile to 1840 and potentially the all time highs.

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Looking at the split globex/pit profiles, we have yesterdays VAL at 1831.25, giving a bit more weight to the area marked by the single print in the weekly profile. The value high is 1841, so again confirming that 1840 area from the weekly profile.

Obviously the Globex highs/lows will be good potential lines in the sand today too.

Volatility was good after FOMC, we are below the chop zone but will be back in it as we move up. Gut feel says if we go upside, we might not chop around so much this time as buyers may be a little bolder.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1717.25 -> 1844.50
Value -1831.25 -> 1839.75
S1 - 1801.50, R1 - 1853.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1823.25 -> 1844.50
Value - 1831.00 -> 1841
Globex - 1817.25 ->1829.25

Short term levels - 1811.50, 1829.75

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 21st, 2014, 05:14 AM   #200 (permalink)
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21st Feb

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Yesterday we were considering 2 options.

1 - Has the test of the high been done and we are now heading to 1806.25 & possibly all 1767.50 and even 1730
2 - Was this just a much needed pullback after a 100 point bull run before a continuation up

Of course we don't know for sure but it does look like scenarion 2 is somewhat more likely or at least a push up through the all time highs to see if there are more buyers up there.

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We have come off the highs of yesterday but so far are still at the upper half of the bulge in the weekly profile. We dont want to drop through this to 1830 in the remainder of the Globex session (4am EST here). Certainly if we do, we want to see a swift recovery to 1840 in the pit session as above there we should move quite freely.

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In terms of downside references - we have a single print at 1834.50 and the value low at 1829.50. We really need these to hold for more upside.

To the upside, anything above 40 should run freely, then we have the current globex high at 1843.25 and the weekly high at 1844.50 as hurdles. Overnight inventory is long now and so we could have a sell of from the open if we stay long into the open.

We are close to a high though and the chances are we may not get a downside test but just a push up, so I'll be looking for signs that people want to run the high.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1817.25 -> 1844.50
Value - 1831 -> 1842
S1 - 1785.50, R1 - 1816.75

Daily Numbers

Range - 1817.25 (Globex)/1821 (pit)-> 1840.25
Value - 1829.50 -> 1839.50
Globex - 1835.25 -> 1843.25

Short term levels - 1834.50, 1840

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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