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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,781 / 919
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old June 7th, 2013, 09:50 AM   #11 (permalink)
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7th June

It seemed that the break out point from early May - the 1595 was the level that ended up being significant yesterday.

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Yesterday, the question was, will value move down or price move to value. The latter occurred so we are back in the value range for the week. The boundaries of that range are now in play.

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Weekly Numbers
Range 1596.50 -> 1645.75
Value 1616.25 -> 1640.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1596.50 -> 1624.25
Value 1602.25 -> 1613.75
Globex 1618 -> 1633.25

Also - 1646, 1633.75, 1620.50, 1607.25, 1595.50

Just watching the value areas - a rejection of yesterdays and holding the weekly value.

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 7th, 2013 at 09:59 AM.
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Old June 10th, 2013, 10:47 AM   #12 (permalink)
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10th June

A bit late to it today - a nice gap up in the globex:

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The hourly shows we made it to the top of the channel.

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But also shows how the levels made on the way up have been respected.

In terms of last week, here is how we ended up:

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We have already opened, so I won't go into too much commentary but first order of the day is if we can stay above the low of the Globex in order to carry on up or if we go on to test the other levels above. then we have the high of last week to test as well as the 1646 level slightly above it.

Weekly Levels
Range: 1596.50 -> 1645.75
Value: 1618.75 -> 1640.75
LVN 1617
R1 - 1657.25

Daily Levels
Range 1625.75 -> 1644
Value 1634.75 -> 1641.75
Globex 1634.50 -> 1648.25
Other: 1620, 1632.75, 1646, 1660, 1672

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 10th, 2013 at 10:53 AM.
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Old June 11th, 2013, 09:52 AM   #13 (permalink)
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11th June

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We made it up to the 1646 mark before rolling over and we built a fair amount of volume at the low end of the Globex range today. It is normal for overnight inventory (in this case short) to be reversed in the day session, so there is a chance of a move up off the open.

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As you can see there's a bulge at the bottom of the profile, so first thing we need to do is get out of that area but also we can see 1632.25, 1634.25, 1635.25 - some areas with very low volume. That'll probably be irrelevant in the day session but I still think it's worth making a note of them.

Fridays globex low is key and it's at around the 1620 level, so if we do go down off the open, lots of people will be watching to see if that breaks and I am sure lots of people will join in whether it breaks or not. So my scenarios are for a bounce of 1620 and a push up which will gather steam if we get pas yesterdays high or a break of 1620 to the downside causing another sell off, especially as we break Fridays low of 1618. 1618.75 is also last weeks VAL.

We are opening up way below yesterdays range 1638.00 was the low & settlement was 1642. Watch out for a probe down off the open that fails and sees us move back to yesterdays range.

Weekly Levels
Range: 1596.50 -> 1645.75
Value: 1618.75 -> 1640.75
LVN 1617
R1 - 1657.25

Daily Levels
Range 1634.50 (globex) 1638.25 (pit) -> 1648.50
Value 1640.75 -> 1645.75
Globex Range 1625 -> 1642.75
Friday Pit Low 1625.75
Other: 1620, 1632.75, 1646, 1660, 1672

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 11th, 2013 at 10:07 AM.
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Old June 12th, 2013, 09:44 AM   #14 (permalink)
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12th June

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Range is narrowing, so first thing that needs resolving is "up or down?"

1648.50 to the upside & about 1620 to the downside. Be wary of false breakouts with absorption on the opposite side 2-3 ticks out but if that's not happening, a breakout either side is worth joining.

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This weeks value area is overlapping last weeks with the volume POC being at 1642.25. That's actually fairly bearish but what this weeks value area does is gives us some areas to play off if we don't get outsidt ehg 1620-1648.50 range.

Other that that, it could go either way. I will be looking at yesterdays value area, yesterdays range, thisweeks value area, then the range.

Weekly Numbers (this week)
Range - 1621.50-> 1648.50
Value - 1630.50 -> 1646
R1 1657, LVN last week 1617

Daily Numbers
Range - 1621.50 -> 1639.75
Globex - 1626.25 -> 1637
Value - 1624.50 -> 1634
Close 1627.50
Other: 1620, 1632.75, 1646, 1660, 1672

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Old June 13th, 2013, 08:55 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Rollover - no prep, no trading for me.

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Old June 13th, 2013, 11:17 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Rollover - no prep, no trading for me.

Hi DT,

Im interested to hear your reasoning for not trading today. I know it is fairly common for people not to trade on settlement day. However if you dont trade on rollover does that mean just today, or from today until settlement?

Thanks, just curious.

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Old June 13th, 2013, 11:45 AM   #17 (permalink)
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I'm also interested to know how do pre market preparation if that's possible.

Thanks

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Old June 13th, 2013, 12:06 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Hi DT,

Im interested to hear your reasoning for not trading today. I know it is fairly common for people not to trade on settlement day. However if you dont trade on rollover does that mean just today, or from today until settlement?

Thanks, just curious.

There's lots of people moving their positions into the September contract today. That activity distorts the market somewhat.

Also - there is very little depth on the DOM and although that has been the case for the past few weeks, it really is thin today.

Both of these things change the characteristic of the market. As of typing - 11am EST, there's 1.1M contracts traded in the June contract and 356k in the September contract. At some point today (or possibly tomorrow), the September contract will be the leader in terms of volume.

This not only makes trading choppy today, it also makes the pre-market analysis a bit tricky tomorrow because it's based on a weird day.

I get back to it on the Monday but it's really Tuesday where the prior days analysis will start to be really meaningful again.

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Old June 13th, 2013, 12:10 PM   #19 (permalink)
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ghl123 View Post
I'm also interested to know how do pre market preparation if that's possible.

Thanks

The way I do this is one of many ways. I think the keys to good pre-market prep are:

- be consistent in your method
- do it every day
- have multiple scenarios on the table as to how it might play out (if this level breaks - I think it'll go down, if this level holds, we'll run to level xxxx - that sort of thing)

In terms of info out there:
Stock Market Trading Training Seminars | Learn2StockTrade.co.uk - there's a seminar there on pre-market prep
Subscribe to Daily Pre-Market Updates - James Dalton Trading - it's $200/month but after a month or 2 you'll not need to be a subscriber any more in my opinion

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Old June 18th, 2013, 09:47 AM   #20 (permalink)
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18th June

Back to it with meaningful data to prep off after the roll.

Yesterday was very choppy and FOMC is coming on Wednesday so we could well carry on this chop until then. News this AM did very little to nudge the market.

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This is the weekly profile - last week on the left and Monday on the right. It seems that last weeks value area was respected yesterday, so keep an eye on it today to see if it holds.

The hourly chart looks like this:

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We have the 1646.50 line above and the 1620 line below. It looks pretty bullish if we break the line above. Last weeks value was at the top of the range and so was Mondays. That's also bullish in terms of building value at higher prices. I think if we can hit 1650, then people will be a bit more eager to join the buying.

Breaking the 1620 to the downside doesn't look as significant to me, just more of the range we are in. To me the downside is just range but it has made big drops to the downside with the moves up taking more time, so I guess we have to look out for that too. Certainly if we drop below 1618, I think it'll attract some sellers.

Nothing really significant on the weekly/monthly charts for me.

Weekly Levels
Range 1591.75 -> 1642.50
Value 1618.25 -> 1639.75
Weekly Pivot - 1620.75, Weekly R1 - 1640.25

Daily Levels
Range 1618(globex)/1623.75-> 1641
Value 1631.25 -> 1639.25
Settlement 1633.75
Other - 1620, 1648.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 18th, 2013 at 09:54 AM.
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