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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,781 / 919
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old January 27th, 2014, 08:38 AM   #181 (permalink)
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27th Jan

Well - the sky is falling in.....

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Or may be we have just dropped into the mid Nov - mid Dec range as we've been waiting for since the start of January.

Now we have our majory 67.50 line below us, which is the next downside level to test. Then 49.25 and then 30.25. Even at 30.25, I'd still see this as overall rangebound action. We can see the 06.25 line above us, that was the previous top of the range and so if we do head up off the open that's a major level being the top of the mid-Nov to mid-Dec range.

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The weekly profile shows we have dipped below last weeks low in the Globex session. We are now back within it but obviously lots of people will have their eyes on that level! We can also see a "single print" at 1805, so another reason for people to be looking @ the 06.25 area.

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We can see that the single is also present on Fridays profile and 03.75 is the value area high. So this means to me that the whole 3.75 -> 6.50 area could see a lot of action as it gets traded both ways by people looking at the market in different ways. For me - I'll stay out of that area and then get in when it's resolved one way or the other.

As with any bid down day, we can expect a snap back up the next day - so obviously that's something to look out for off the open and potentially getting long into the 3.75 area with a bit of breathing room in the trade. Right now though, I can't say I have any bias, just a couple of scenarios and I'll try to see which is playing out.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1781.25 -> 1844.00
Value - 1822.00 -> 1843.00
S1 - 1760.75, R1 - 1823.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1781.25 -> 1812.25 (pit)/1828.00 (globex)
Value - 1814.00 -> 1828
Globex - 1776.25 -> 1792

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old January 28th, 2014, 08:33 AM   #182 (permalink)
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28th Jan

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This is something I should have spotted and mentioned in yesterdays prep.We can see Fridays spike up in the VIX and we can see similar spokes in October, June and to a lesser extent earlier in the year. When we get these spikes, the liquidity AKA number of contracts at each level on the DOM reduces by about 60% and yesterday was no different. This in itself is not responsible for the drop BUT it is responsible for the massive amount of 'wiggle' in the markets. With so few limit orders, the ES can whip 4-6 ticks either way with no warning.

So with this in mind, if you do see average depth on the DOM at 3-400 contracts at the first 3 levels you need to change your game or stand aside. Certainly you need to loosen up your stops.

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Here's the past few days move on a much larger scale. It is a decent drop but what we did was give back all the low volume gains made over the holiday period and go back the mid-Nov to Mid Dec range. The 76.50 level I mentioned in the prep yesterday was the breakout point of the range we were in until we broke out on 13th Nov.

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Below us we have levels at 49.25 and 30.25. So if we do run back to the 76.50 level and break it - look for those next. As we run down, also look for the December low at 54 because January is the 7th consecutive month of higher lows on the ES and if we break 54, we break that.

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Todays Globex session is in the middle of yesterdays range. It's neutral to me, although some people will look at this as a Globex session that could be followed with a quick sell off.

For me - I'll watch out for the volatility first, let it play out and see if there is going to be a run one way. The bounce of 67.50 area (well 67.00 to be exact) was expected and does see us potentially moving back to 1850 over the next few weeks. We need to hold that ground now and that's what to look for today.


Weekly Numbers

Range - 1781.25 -> 1844.00
Value - 1822.00 -> 1843.00
S1 - 1760.75, R1 - 1823.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1767.00-> 1791 (pit)/1792(globex)
Value - 1775 -> 1787.50
Globex - 1770.75 -> 1786.50

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old January 29th, 2014, 09:20 AM   #183 (permalink)
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29th Jan

At this point, I feel like I am repeating myself. Mind you, so is the market.

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So now the question is - will the mid-Nov to mid-Dec range hold, which means we get to 06.25 and turn down to 1767.50 or will we go up towards 1850 again?


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The VIX has settled a bit and even mid-morning yesterday we had better liquidity but still watch the depth to get an idea of how volatile it will be. If the depth is low, then loosen the stops.

Of course, being FOMC day we could have quite a dull morning.

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I have 1794 as a minor level - we didn't up that high yesterday but we have popped through it overnight. Now we have dropped back down. If we look to the left we can see that we have mostly stayed below 1792 this week and so the first order of the day IF we are to hit 06.25 is the area boxed above.

It could be we are done now to the upside after the push up in the Globex session. It's something that you could look for playing out off the open but then it is FOMC day. Still, it's well worth watching the 1790 level off the open.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1767 -> 1801.25
Value - 1776.50 -> 1789.50
S1 - 1760.75, R1 - 1823.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1770.75 (globex) 1776.75 (pit) -> 1788.75
Value - 1783-> 1787.75
Globex - 1779 -> 1801.25

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old January 30th, 2014, 07:26 AM   #184 (permalink)
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30th Jan

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Just to put things in perspective. This pullback still isn't massive compared to prior pullbacks.

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We are back to the 67.50 level and have poked through it. If it fails, we are looking for 1749.25 and possibly 1730.25. If not, back up to 1806.25 and possibly 1850. So lots of people will be looking to see which way this breaks.

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Weekly profile is fairly evenly distributed and the 1788 is the weekly VAH, so it's worth paying attention to that area.

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On a daily level, not much additional information other than the prior days highs/lows to look out for.

We still haven't broken last months low, which is 1754. My presumption is that everyone is waiting to see which way it breaks. Maybe unemployment at 8:30am EST or Home Sales at 10:00am EST will give us the answer.

I'm neutral and waiting to see which way it plays out.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1764 -> 1801.25
Value - 1772.50 -> 1788
S1 - 1760.75, R1 - 1823.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1764.25 -> 1781 (globex)/1801.25 (pit)
Value - 1783-> 1787.75
Globex - 1767.75 -> 1779

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old January 31st, 2014, 05:49 AM   #185 (permalink)
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31st January

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Yesterday we only got as far as our 1794 level before turning down. Two scenarios come to mind there.
1 - We are making successively lower highs and so will drop through 67.50 and head to 50.
2 - We are in a narrowing range and so we may well not even make it to 67.50 - just more chop.

So with that in mind, 67.50 becomes an area of focus today.

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Looking at the weekly profile, it's an more of a perfect "D" shape than yesterday if we ignore that little lump above 1795.

So with us being in the middle of that yesterday, there's really no benefit from looking at the daily profiles. Barring some news event, it's going to be tough going from 73->88.

So we can play from the outside back in or wait for a break. Playing in the middle is a tough proposition for me.

There is one more consideration. Last day of the month. It is possible we get a push up based on that but I'll still wait for a break upside above weekly value before taking a long.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1764 -> 1801.25
Value - 1773.25 -> 1788.25
S1 - 1760.75, R1 - 1823.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1767.75 (globex)/1785 (pit) -> 1793.75
Value - 1783.50 -> 1792.50
Globex - 1774.25 -> 1784.50

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 3rd, 2014, 09:31 AM   #186 (permalink)
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3rd February

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We've had higher highs and higher lows for 6 months running. February broke that by not having a higher high in the pit sessions. January's low is 1761.25. If we break that to the downside, we'll have our first lower low for 7 months. It'll be interesting when that happens.

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The VIX is spiking again and whilst last week was rangebound, it was quite a decent range because of the lack of liquidity. So again, watch the DOM and look out for low liquidity. If it's in the low-mid 100's as opposed to 1000+, then adjust for it being a bit more whippy.

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I guess some people like me will be wondering about this prospective channel. We are moving sideways but there's no denying it's slightly more bearish. Thing is we can't seem to get any traction to the downside when we do break prior lows. Over to the left is Decembers low of 1754 which could be the breaking point to the downside.

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A nice even "D" shaped distribution last week. Whilst the VIX says we'll be volatile, the profile says we are rangebound. It's just a decent sized range.

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Not surprisingly the Globex/Pit profiles show the picture. A range, but a wide one. As with any range you fade the extremes. To me that's ether the weekly value area from last week 72.25-> 87.75 or you widen that out a but to 67.50->94. I would much rather be fading 66 and 94 that last weeks value area right now.

As for the breakout - well it does seem to be more bearish but with a range, it's really hard to tell 'cause they always look like we will break when we trade towards an extreme.

So into this open - some levels but the better ones 66 & 94, we may not even hit, so shorter term momentum trades might be the order of the day.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1761.25 -> 1801.25
Value - 1772.25 -> 1787.75
S1 - 1762.50, R1 - 1792.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1761.25 (globex)/ 1764.75 -> 1788.25
Value - 1774.50 -> 1786.59
Globex - 1771.50 -> 1783.75

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 4th, 2014, 08:02 AM   #187 (permalink)
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4th February

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As discussed yesterday, VIX was spiking and that is part of the reason for the lack of liquidity yesterday. It's up more today, so again eyes on the DOM and stops wide if the depth is low.

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We have now broke the past 2 months low but not November low of 30.25. All eyes on that as a line in the sand to the downside.

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Yesterday we had a huge drop. As such, most of last weeks numbers are irrelevant but last weeks low of 61.25 is well worth watching if we manage to get back up to that area.

After a drop like yesterday, we often get a snap back up. The Globex session so far has not broken yesterdays low (as at 7:00am EST). So for today, first thing is to see if we can hold yesterdays low of 32.25 and the major level we have at 30.25. To the upside, for a long trade based on buying off the open. I think we need to see good delta along with the moves up to ride a long trade. If delta on any initial buying is minor, then I'd expect sellers to step in and drive it down again.


If we do break 30.25 to the downside, then we could well see another sell off. The next level down is 20.75 and then 1700.

At some point we will see another range form but where that will be is not something I could even attempt to predict.

For today, I'll basically be looking to see
- if there's signs of a snap back up and shorts taking profits.
- if an initial move up looks weak and sellers jump on it again
- if it appears sellers are coming along in force off the open

Of course, there's a chance none of these will happen. With VIX so high though, I'd expect the liquidity to be low again and it to be volatile.


Weekly Numbers

Range - 1761.25 -> 1801.25
Value - 1772.25 -> 1787.75
S1 - 1762.50, R1 - 1792.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1732.25 -> 1779 (pit)/1783.75
Value - 1733.125 -> 1759 (but largely irrelevant on trend days like yesterday)
Globex - 1732.50 -> 1743.75

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 5th, 2014, 06:01 AM   #188 (permalink)
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5th February

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Another illiquid day yesterday with a lot of wiggle in it. As yesterday, I think most traders want to know which way it's going to break, if we will make up some of the ground in Mondays drop or if we will carry on up. We didn't resolve that either way yesterday. We did poke up to 1753.50 yesterday which is 2 ticks below Decembers low. For upside, we need to hold Decembers low and then get to last weeks low of 1761 and hold that too. Continued failure to make ground through these prior lows will see sellers step in and push us to new lows.

We still didn't break Novembers low of 1730.25, so that remains a key level.

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We can see that we are starting to form a lower distribution which is trading from late Monday to todays globex session. It does appear that if we can make it above the 1754 level, there's very little trading occurred above there and we could see a pop through to 1770. So 54 is a line in the sand on a weekly basis too.

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Yesterday we ended up pretty much where we opened. In the Globex session so far we have mostly traded below the open. We do have employment numbers at 8:12 and PMI at 10:00am. I don't really see that the pit/globex profiles tell us much more than the lines in the sand at 30.25 and 54. I would look at yesterdays value area today 44.75-51.25 as we did poke into that overnight before the level was rejected.

Again - watch out for volatility as it is still likely to be illiquid.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1732.25 -> 1783.75
Value - 1732.50 -> 1757.50
S1 - 1762.50, R1 - 1792.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1732.50 (globex)/1738.75 (pit) -> 1779 (pit)/1753.50
Value - 1744.75-> 1751.25
Globex - 1738 -> 1746

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 6th, 2014, 08:47 AM   #189 (permalink)
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6th February

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For now, we have held above the November 1730.25 low. So we can start thinking about what would confirm a move back up. We are still trading below last weeks range 1761.25 since Mondays drop. That's an area of interest for both sides.

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The profile shows a double distribution - the upper on is just the Sunday Globex and the first part of Monday, so I don't see it providing much resistance if we get back up there. As we get to the top of the lower distribution - say about 1754 (also Dec low), we need to look out for sellers but if we can get a good push through there, I think we should get to 61.25 and then to our next major level at 67.25.

To the downside, the weekly low and the 30.25 level are key in terms of another push down.

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Yesterday, we couldn't get through Tuesdays Value High and in the Globex we have gotten above yesterdays Value High but we are now back within value. First order of the day for longs is to get back above and hold above yesterdays value (50.50).

Almost all overnight action up to now has been above yesterdays close which makes it close to 100% long. As such we do have to be wary of an initial sell-off right from the open.

Note that this prep was done before the 8:30 news. As per the last few days - watch the liquidity again.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1732.25 -> 1783.75
Value - 1736.00 -> 1751.00
S1 - 1762.50, R1 - 1792.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1732.00 -> 1750.75
Value - 1741.00 -> 1750.50
Globex - 1744-> 1755.75

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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Old February 7th, 2014, 04:07 AM   #190 (permalink)
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7th February

Liquidity seemed to be back to normal a bit yesterday. Certainly it was a much easier day to trade from an order flow perspective.

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I'm still biased to the upside but I think we have to consider 3 scenarios.

- Keep moving up to the high of the mid-Nov to mid-Dec tange (1806..25) and then move back down
- As above but hitting the all time high before turning down.
- Move down off the open, testing 1730.25 and possibly moving beyond it.

Whilst it's nice to take back most of Mondays big drop, buyers are still likely to be nervous till we get well clear of the 1767.50 area. We've popped up through it and now we need to hold that, as well as last weeks low (1761.25) to maintain upwards momentum. It would be good to see a downside test before we move up again. That would give me more confidence in yesterdays run up.

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We also need to stay above the lower distribution/value area for this week. We can see a small distribution at the top of this weeks range and it would be nice to see us move into that area without much resistance.

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Yesterday, we had that nice push up off the prior pit session VAH and then moved sideways. Those higher prices were accepted. As above, we now need to hold them the VAL 1t 1762.50 - is just above last weeks low, which gives this area a little more importance in terms of the bulls being able to drive it up. If these areas break, then I'll be looking to be short biased.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1732 -> 1783.75
Value - 1734.50 -> 1754.50
S1 - 1762.50, R1 - 1792.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1744 (globex)/ 1750.50 -> 1769.75
Value - 1762.50 -> 1769
Globex - 1766-> 1769.25 (3:00 am EST)

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1754 (Dec low) 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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