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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #171 (permalink)
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December 14th



Yesterday was interesting, as expected we did start off in a range for the morning session. Then we had a major breakdown. I have highlighted in yellow the potential ranges we may mark out for the next month or so. We still need to break 1806.25 to get into the late 2013 range, if not we are looking @ 06.25-> 50 range.



We can see 2 distributions this week but the lower one is mostly the Globex session from yesterday. As with all days where we have a decent drop, we could well take it all back today. On the other hand, we could break 06.25 and start moving towards 1767.50. For today, when the pit session opens, last weeks low of 17.25 will be one to watch to see if we can stay below that level. Even if we open above it in the remainder of the Globex session (7:30am at writing) the pit session will be more important in terms of sticking below that level. If we get above 21.50, then we could see us take back most of yesterdays move down.



Not much more information from the split profile other than the Globex trading is above yesterdays low and around yesterdays close. That makes it neutral in my opinion but a break either side could see an extended run as we don't have a lot of recent volume traded at these prices till we get up to the 20s or down to 06.25.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1817.25 -> 1842.50
Value - 1824.00 -> 1834.00
S1 - 1826.75, R1 - 1845.33


Daily Numbers

Range - 1809.50 -> 1838.25
Value - 1819-> 1838 (but pretty much irrelevant on a day like yesterday)
Globex - 1812.75 -> 1819

Other - 1846.50, 1833.25, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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  #172 (permalink)
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15th Jan



It's looking more and more likely that we are keeping the Santa gains for now and rotating around 06.25-50.00 for a while before making the next move.



This weeks profile now has 2 distributions and very little trading between 20-29.25. If we break back into that range, we could quite easily slip to the distribution on the opposite side.



As we mentioned yesterday, after a big move down you often make it all back up the following day. At the open, it actually seemed quite slow in the first hour yesterday and looked like we might be in for a choppy day but we did eventually break up and make back most of the ground.

Right now (7am) the Globex session is above yesterdays high and we have PPI at 8:30 am. We could be on for a new all time high today but with overnight inventory long, we may see an initial sell of. Still, a couple of hours to go before the open and the picture might change.

Right now, this is not a neutral open, so watch for selling at the open.

Overall, look out for a move to 46.50 and a pop through but be very wary if we drop through 29 as there's not much below us in terms of volume traded this week.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1809.50 -> 1839.75
Value - 1819.75 -> 1838.25
S1 - 1826.75, R1 - 1845.33


Daily Numbers
Range - 1812.75 (globex)/1815.75 -> 1834.25
Value - 1824.25 -> 1834.25
Globex - 1831.50-> 1837.75

Other - 1846.50, 1833.25, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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  #173 (permalink)
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Brother Peter,

Just a shout to apologize again for my tone in that Paypal correspondence. Someday I will learn not to
communicate with others online when in a bad frame of mind over something else.

I have always found you to be of impeccable character and your tools are simply the best.


See, I am giving myself a public flogging even if you chose not to.


grazie


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  #174 (permalink)
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Brother Peter,

Just a shout to apologize again for my tone in that Paypal correspondence. Someday I will learn not to
communicate with others online when in a bad frame of mind over something else.

I have always found you to be of impeccable character and your tools are simply the best.


See, I am giving myself a public flogging even if you chose not to.


grazie

lol - that made me laugh. As before - no problemo.

It pales in comparison to the verbal bearings I get off my wife a daughter....

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  #175 (permalink)
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16th Jan



Back up to the highs as expected yesterday. We came within 3 ticks of the all time high yesterday so now we have to consider a turn back down to 06.25. I was expecting a poke through the highs before rolling down so I'll be looking out for that to happen still. We do have employment numbers before the open and the Philly Fed at 10am, so that might be the push we need.

Continuation up at this point is my least likely scenario but of course anything can happen. If we do push up, I'll be looking for a pullback to 46.50 for a continuation long. Still - I am biased to a return to 06.25.



The 38-38.75 area held for 9 pit sessions with hits to the high on 4 out of those days. I'm adding 38.50 as a level. This is also a possible support point if we do move up. I'll be looking at that to be a key level today in terms of a move up.

As at writing we have held yesterdays value area high and are now trading below the open. Still, I think this globex session is pretty neutral at this point (6:30am EST). Yesterdays VAH of 43.75 will also be a key level and could be the point sellers step in.

Overall - expecting a pop through the highs and a move down towards 06.25 with 38.50 as a line in the sand that longs need to defend.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1809.50 -> 1845.75
Value - 1825.75 -> 1844.25
S1 - 1826.75, R1 - 1845.33


Daily Numbers
Range - 1831.50 (globex)/1836.50 (pit) -> 1845.75
Value - 1840.75 -> 1843.75
Globex - 1838.25 -> 1843.75

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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  #176 (permalink)
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17th Jan



Whenever I see something like this, first thought in my head is always "just drive it through the high you bunch of wimps". We are very close to the all time high and it seems rude to not drive through it, if for no other reason than to see if there's more buyers up there. Look a little lower on the above chart to the highest of the blue lines and you can see that we've done this before.

So I still think a poke up is likely but we could be done now and be headed back to 06 area.



The weekly profile shows a clear double distribution and that there's not been a lot of activity between 20 and 30 this week. So if it does drop through 30, then we could see it follow with another 10 points and possibly to the weekly low.



The daily profile shows we had made 2 points lower low yesterday but it was a very narrow day and the Globex session so far (5am) is trading within that. We do have a fair amount of news today but we really need to get shaken out of yesterdays range or we could see another low range day.

So I'm watching for 30 to break for a good run down or for the all time high to break. Within the 30-45 range, I can see it being a bit choppy.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1809.50 -> 1845.75
Value - 1830.75 -> 1843.75
S1 - 1826.75, R1 - 1845.33


Daily Numbers
Range - 1834.50 -> 1841 (pit)/1843.75 (globex)
Value - 1840.75 -> 1843.75
Globex - 1838.25 -> 1843.75

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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  #177 (permalink)
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21st January

Always a bit tricky to know what to do after a holiday like that, we did have a partial day on Monday but not much trading, so this prep has to try to figure out the best way forward for me in terms of looking at 'prior day' - is it yesterday of Friday?



Big picture remains unchanged, I'll be looking for a poke through the high to fail and for us to head back to 06.25.



So to the days... we can see that the Sunday Globex and Monday hour session was all within Fridays range, so I'll look at Fridays VAL/VAH/Highs/Lows for reference.

In any case we have poked above that in the Globex session so far (6am)and so there is an argument to say that overnight inventory is long even compared to Friday. As such, an initial sell off at the open is a possibility, especially if we get back to the Globex highs by the open time. There's no real news to help us do that but we are still above Fridays settlement so although I'd like to see more extension above Fridays high before the open, an initial sell of is still likely.



From a weekly perspective, we can see the bulk of trading this week has been in the upper distribution from last week. If it stays in there it could well be sluggish. If it breaks down through 1830, we could see last weeks lows fairly quickly.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1809.50 -> 1845.75
Value - 1831.25 -> 1843.25
S1 - 1814, R1 - 1850.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1829.25 -> 1840.50
Value - 1834 -> 1839.50
Globex - 1833.50 -> 1843

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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22nd January



Still hugging the top of this range and I'm still looking for it to move out of the 30-44 range we market out last week.



We did pop down through 30 yesterday and as we can see, that is a dip below the upper distribution from last week. This weeks value is within last weeks value so that pop down yesterday seems to be more like range extension. I'm still expecting 30-44 to still be a little choppy.



A rather odd looking profile so far. We did have the expectation of an initial sell off from the open in yesterdays prep and we did get that but it was a little sluggish. We then did pop down thru the 30's, the point at which I thought we'd see more of a breakdown but what we got was buyers coming in driving it back into the 44 level again. So it seems 44 is expensive, 30 is cheap right now.

Globex action is fairly neutral, not much news and in last weeks range, so expecting it to be a bit slow in this area but the longer we stay here, the more power we have for the eventual breakout. I'm still thinking 06.25 is a possibility to the downside.

So no real bias at these levels - range is still 30-44 which is narrow, so looking for a break either side.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1809.50 -> 1845.75
Value - 1831.25 -> 1843.25
S1 - 1814, R1 - 1850.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1826.25 -> 1844
Value - 1830 -> 1839.00
Globex - 1834.75 -> 1843.25

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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23rd Jan



So still up here in the 30-44 area, still waiting for either a pop through or failure to the downside and really not a great deal of indication as to which way we will break.



The weekly profile shows how 'stuck' we are in this area. We can see that we traded there most of last week and are now doing the same thing. On the bright side, this is creating lots of positions that will bail and help to create an extended move as we break out.



In terms of the daily chart, we had quite a narrow day yesterday and a sell off overnight. That leaves overnight inventory quite short. That means an initial correction upwards could be on the cards. I'd be looking at 1835 as a potential stopping point for any move up. I still think we could breakdown to the downside and I previously thought that would happen when 1830 broke. For now, I'm looking to the weekly low 26.25 for that breakdown.

We did have a big range overnight and of course there is a chance we could pop right through the top and break the all time high. Of late though, we've seen a lot of big overnight moves followed by small intraday range. Then Asians & Europeans having all the fun.

Unemployment claims @ 8:30am and home sales @ 10:00am might be the push we need to break out of this area.

Don't hold your breath though!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1816.25 -> 1844.00
Value - 1831.00 -> 1840.00
S1 - 1814, R1 - 1850.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1834.75 (globex)/1835(pit) -> 1841.75
Value - 1837.25 -> 1840.75
Globex - 1828.75-> 1844

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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24th January

We've been looking for a pullback to the mid November - Mid December highs since the new year started. We started off this week with a lot of trading in the 30-44 area and we finally broke down.



The upper distribution from last week was 30-44 and the lower distribution was 13-18. We did have a bounce off 18 and need to now break 13 to then run for the low. At that point my guess is we'll head back up towards 50 (red arrows) but there is a chance we'll get back into the Mid Nov-Mid Dec range again.

For me that is just a matter of letting the level play out - hero traders can fight over it if they want but I'm happy to be a wimp and catch some scraps when it's clear which way we are heading.



On this weeks profile we can see that we are potentially building out a shorter term 16-26 range and so we might not get out 06.25 today if we end up rotating around there. Just another possibility to be aware of.



As of typing (5:45AM EST) we are threatening yesterdays lows. In fact since I tool the pic above we have traded yesterdays low. Of course we do have very short overnight inventory which can often see a snap back up. That is short inventory based on yesterdays close though and all overnight action is so far within yesterdays range to that makes it more neutral to me.

No real news to speak of today so watch out for levels above yesterdays VAL/VAH to hold if we do have a pop up to then take a ride down towards 06.25.

Have a great weekend all.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1813.75 -> 1844.00
Value - 1830.00 -> 1843.00
S1 - 1814, R1 - 1850.25


Daily Numbers
Range - 1813.75 -> 1830 (pit)/1844(globex)
Value - 1817.25 -> 1823.75
Globex - 1813.75 -> 1828

Other - 1846.50, 1838.50, 1833.25, 1830, 1821.50, 1806.25, 1796.25, 1794, 1779.25, 1778, 1767.50, 1749.25. 1730.25, 1720.75, 1700, 1697.75

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