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DTs Pre Market Prep

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27th November



Yesterday was another lackluster day. Volume was just under 1.1M and range was 1 tick above the prior days range.

Nothing has changed since Monday:

"Last weeks value high is 1795.75, which coincides with the 1796 level from above. That gives us a bit more reason to see us staying above that level for continued upside but we could potentially stop at the value low at 1784.25. So that might be a line in the sand between 1796 and 1774.50. Certainly a level to be aware of."

"Fridays value area low is 1796.50 - again that 1796 area is significant. We also have a single print at 1798 but I'm sticking to 1796 as my major line in the sand. We also have Fridays VAH at 1803 which could potentially hold off the open. I'd prefer to come a little lower."

So same levels are in play. We do have Unemployment numbers ay 8:30am EST today, so there is a chance that this will stir things up if they are particularly good or bad.

Right now though (5:45am EST), the Globex session is pointing to a low range day.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1774.50 -> 1803.25
Value - 1784.25 -> 1795.75
S1 - 1782.75, R1 - 1811.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1798.75 -> 1807
Value - 1801.75 -> 1805.75
Globex 1801.25 -> 1803.25

Other - 1809.25, 1800, 1796, 1792.50, 1788, 1784, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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2nd December



So last week was fairly narrow. I still think that 1796 is a level lots of people will be watching and below that 1794. If that breaks I see us going back into the old range and down to 1774.50. If that breaks, I'll be looking for 1750 and if that breaks I'll be looking for 1734.50.



The weekly profile doesn't tell us much. The Globex session is within last weeks value area so I'll be looking at the value area/extremes from last week for clues.



So far in the Globex session, most trading is below Fridays value area but as it was such a low volume day, I'm not reading too much into it.

So I see the market as needing to either move upwards or revert to rangebound behavior. I'm not sure where the bottom of the range will be but 74.50, 50 and 34.50 are all candidates.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1798.50 -> 1812.50
Value - 1801.75 -> 1807.25
S1 - 1800.25, R1 - 1810.00

Daily Numbers
Range - 1802.75 -> 1812.50
Value - 1806.75 -> 1812.25
Globex 1801.75 -> 1807.75

Other - 1809.25, 1800, 1796, 1792.50, 1788, 1784, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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3rd December




Yesterday we dipped a little below last weeks range through the 1800 and down to 1797. I'm looking at 1796 as a line in the sand, so I am going to be wary of another push down today and if that has strength, I'll be looking to hit 74.50.



The weekly profile shows value unchanged but price has probed lower. I don't read too much into last weeks profile as it was a holiday week.



Looking at yesterdays profile we can see we first pushed through the Globex low 3 ticks, then up through the Globex high 3 ticks and then pushed down to 1797.

Globex action is below yesterdays value but around yesterdays close. So it's neutral but I'll be looking for a test of yesterdays VAL 1801.50 as an indication of whether we will push down thru 1796 or go back up to 1812.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1798.50 -> 1812.50
Value - 1801.75 -> 1807.25
S1 - 1800.25, R1 - 1810.00

Daily Numbers
Range - 1796.75 -> 1809
Value - 1801.50 -> 1807
Globex 1799.25 -> 1801.75

Other - 1809.25, 1800, 1796, 1792.50, 1788, 1784, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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@DionysusToast, what is your opinion on the usefulness of market profile and or volume profile used in conjunction with currencies, currency futures, and or other exotic instruments without much volume?

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Itchymoku View Post
@DionysusToast, what is your opinion on the usefulness of market profile and or volume profile used in conjunction with currencies, currency futures, and or other exotic instruments without much volume?

I really never tried on currencies.

The market profile itself is just a way to organize the data more than being a technique. So that should still be valid, then it depends how well the value areas hold. The profile itself does rely on defining open/close times and that would be tricky on currencies, I guess you'd probably need to define 3 separate sessions as I do with Globex/Pit.

Currencies themselves have no accurate volume data that I am aware of but currency futures do.

In terms of other markets, I guess it depends what you mean by 'exotic' - I think the value concepts play out well on the Bund, FESX and Corn too.

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December 4th



We dipped through the 1796 level I was looking for and now I see the above 2 scenarios as likely. Of course, we could go straight up from here but I think at least a test of 74.50 is on the cards if not 1750.



We are now below last weeks range (low 1798.50) which has broken the run of weekly higher lows we had over the past month. It remains to be seen if we will have a lower high too. We have broken last weeks low and the prior weeks low is the 1774.50.



Last weeks low was our pit session high yesterday which lends it some significance. I see that as a line in the sand and will be looking for that to be tested and for sellers to step in if we can't hold it.

It's early here - 4:30 EST and overnight inventory is long so fare but all action is within yesterdays pit session, so I don't see that causing a major move off the open.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1798.50 -> 1812.50
Value - 1801.75 -> 1807.25
S1 - 1800.25, R1 - 1810.00

Daily Numbers
Range - 1786.25 -> 1798.50 (pit)/1801.75 (globex)
Value - 1787.50 -> 1794
Globex 1790.25 -> 1795.75

Other - 1809.25, 1800, 1796, 1792.50, 1788, 1784, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Oh wow, can't believe I haven't seen this thread until now.

Subscribing to it.

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evanbro View Post
Oh wow, can't believe I haven't seen this thread until now.

Subscribing to it.

I can't believe it either... Shame on you!!!

I hope it's useful in some way.

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5th December



Yesterday we did carry on down and my expectation was range low would be 74.50 but if that broke then we'd be looking at 50's. As it turned out we got down to 77.75 and then whipped back up - which sees us potentially building a 1774.50-> 1812 range. I still have 1796 as a significant level and if that can't break today, I see us going back to 74.50 and possibly to 1750.



The red line weekly profile is last weeks low. We can see we have a lower distribution below that and we are building value mostly below last weeks low. So it does look like we are accepting these lower prices.



Looking at yesterday, we dipped down a few ticks below the Globex low off the open and put in a good move up into last weeks range but we got a point through and price collapsed almost 22 points. We then had a pretty good reaction back up. So interesting action - we seem to have sellers at last weeks low and buyers down close to the 74.50 level - which note is also the low of 2 weeks ago. I expect these levels to be significant today.

Globex has been narrow as at the time of writing but probably because of the unemployment numbers coming out in an hour.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1777.75 -> 1809.00
Value - 1786.00 -> 1801.00
S1 - 1800.25, R1 - 1810.00

Daily Numbers
Range - 1777.75 -> 1799.50
Value - 1784.50 -> 1795.50
Globex 1788.25 -> 1793.00

Other - 1809.25, 1800, 1796, 1792.50, 1788, 1784, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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6th December



Yesterday was a tough day without much direction and without much liquidity. The longer term chart does have us heading to 1796, which is a line in the sand. That could end up being our range high but after the past few days, it could just as easily be a turnaround and heading to test 1774.50.



Since dropping through last weeks low at 1798.50, we haven't managed to get back into last weeks range and stay there, value for the week is just below 1798 and it is therefore an area sellers could jump in. So worth watching if we do get through 1796.



Yesterday was a tough day and we stayed within Wednesdays range. So far in the Globex, we saw buyers step in before we got to yesterdays low and now we are rotating around yesterdays high. Considering where we are relative to the weeks action, I see this as fairly neutral.

I'd like to see 96-98 for a short and possibly yesterdays low at 1782 for a lower probability long. We do have plenty of news today and we could easily break either of these levels before the open. If the news is lackluster, then I see 1782 as being more likely to hold. I see 1774.50 as a more likely turning point if we go down off the news but we could see 1750 on bad news.



The VIX has been rising and it's really not that high but the impact on liquidity has been significant. Yesterday we were well below 1000 on the first 3 bids/offers for most of the day with the inside bid & offer being below 500. It was 'slppery' yesterday with price moving 3-4 ticks either way without much warning. Stops had to be widened on the back of that. I'll be looking out for that again today. It's odd action - whilst we did have it slipping and sliding about yesterday, the overall range was still very low.




Looking at the weekly chart, you can see how significant the 74.50 level is - it's been a while since we broke a prior 2 week low and that could trigger more of a sell off.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1777.75 -> 1809.00
Value - 1783.50 -> 1797.50
S1 - 1800.25, R1 - 1810.00

Daily Numbers
Range - 1782-> 1792
Value - 1784 -> 1788.59
Globex 1783.25 -> 1793.75

Other - 1809.25, 1800, 1796, 1792.50, 1788, 1784, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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