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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,686 / 918
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old November 13th, 2013, 07:09 AM   #131 (permalink)
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13th November

Another low volume day yesterday and still within last weeks range but we did break down from Mondays low a little.

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So if we look at our overall range, it looks like we are now headed to the opposite side 1750 and possibly 1734.50. I don't expect that to happen in a day though. So for me, I'm going to bias short more than long off the open.

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Normally, I'd be looking at this weeks value area instead of last weeks by now but as Monday was a holiday, I'll still be watching last weeks VAL as a potential stopping point. This weeks VAL is 62.75 as at typing, which is already one of our levels.

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If volume is still low, we could be in for chop but overall I favor us now moving back down to the bottom of our range over the next few days. So far in the Globex, volume looks decent. For the downside today, we need to make a move down and break yesterdays low and stay below yesterdays VAL. If we can do that I think we are good.

Of course, no-one knows the future, so I will also be on the outlook for a failure to break down. Overnight inventory is short and this does often give us an initial push up off the open so that's something to look out for. Saying that we haven't made much of a move past yesterdays low, so I don't expect a snap up.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1736.50 -> 1774.50
Value - 1754.50 -> 1767
S1 - 1748.25, R1 - 1777.50


Daily Numbers

Range - 1758.50 -> 1768.50 (pit)/1769.75 (globex)
Value - 1760.75 -> 1765.75
Globex 1757.75 -> 1766

Other - 1773.50, 1764, 1761, 1762.75,1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Old November 14th, 2013, 05:58 AM   #132 (permalink)
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14th November

Well - so much for my short bias from my prep yesterday!

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From yesterday "So if we look at our overall range, it looks like we are now headed to the opposite side 1750 and possibly 1734.50."

We came down shy of the 1750 mark yesterday to 1754.25 in the Globex session. We failed to get to that low in the pit session and buyers came in and pushed us up. Volume was not particularly high - 1.6 million. Delta on the other hand shifted up about 100k contracts from the low.

So now the questions is - is this a range extension or are we going to move to 1800?

I have three scenarios in mind as we go into today and they are marked above. I will be watching the order flow as we get to the break-out point, the old high @ 74.50 which is also a tick above a single print on the weekly profile below.

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We are building a distribution at these highs at 80-84 and we need to see either an initial push up OR price acceptance at these levels - building some volume in the 80's as a springboard to higher prices. I'd consider either bullish.

If we move down, then I'll be looking for a bounce up off 74 area and if not, I'll expect us to move down to the 50's again or possibly the 34.50.

Let's not forget what happened Thursday/Friday last week where the sky was falling on Thursday and then we made it all back on Friday.

Overnight inventory is almost 100% long at time of writing (5am EST) so that could cause an initial snap down.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1754.25 -> 1785.25
Value - 1760 -> 1769
S1 - 1748.25, R1 - 1777.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1754.25(globex)/1755.50 (pit) -> 1785.25
Value - 1763.75 -> 1779.25
Globex 1778.25 -> 1785.25

Other - 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Old November 15th, 2013, 04:25 AM   #133 (permalink)
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15th November

Bear in mind this is an early prep today (3am EST) and so the Globex trading could change things - especially if for some reason we break yesterdays pit session low (1777.25) in the Globex session.

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We had a line in the sand yesterday at 74.50 and we got as low as 77.25. That was 1 point through the Globex low and at that point buyers came in and we took a move up to 89. So right now, all eyes on 1800.

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This shows clearly the poke down through the Globex low but also how we barely dipped into yesterdays range. The Globex session at this point is overlapping the top of yesterdays value area. In terms of yesterdays structure, after the move up, we spent time at 83.75-> 88.50 which is a good thing in terms of accepting prices at these levels. We have a single print at 82.50 which is just below yesterdays VAL at 83, so that's a potential area of support.

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The weekly profile shows us we have an upper distribution 1778-1790 and we can see how thin it is below that. Longs will want to see us stay in that upper distribution and a break to the downside should see us hit 1770 pretty quickly. Below that we are in a thicker area and whilst it could move down, it'll move slowly there.

Long term, we want to see price acceptance in this upper range if we want to see higher prices. for today looking to hold yesterdays value and if we do, then looking for 1800+ If not - well we know where the breakdown points are.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1754.25 -> 1790.75
Value - 1755 -> 1778
S1 - 1748.25, R1 - 1777.50


Daily Numbers
Range - 1777.25 -> 1789.00
Value - 1783.00-> 1789.00
Globex 1786.50 -> 1790.75

Other - 1782.50, 1778, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Old November 18th, 2013, 06:45 AM   #134 (permalink)
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18th November (5:30am EST)

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We didn't manage to get to 1800 yet - we got to 1796 on Monday. We have a small 'ledge' at 1788 and below at 1777.25, so these are both potential support areas as is the 'break out point' back at 74.50. Below that 74.50 level and I'd expect us to go back into range and head to 1750 & 1734.50.

I do expect us to push up through 1800 first and then I'll be watching the reaction to that happening. I presume that will happen today but obviously you can't be 100% sure.

Volume was light on Friday - about 1.2 Million contracts, so not a huge amount of volume trading at these levels. For upside, I'd be happy to see it trade around these levels for a few days as the market accepts these prices.

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Globex today has been fairly light and the range is low. This is at 5:30 am though. We can see the 1788 level here at Fridays low and that would be a good downside level to hit before making a move up. Globes is within Fridays range and mostly within Fridays value area. Neutral basically.

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We can see 3 or 4 areas of price distribution as we moved up last week, the latter being the 1788 - 1793 area. 1793 is potential resistance below that we have a lower distribution down to 1777.25. So when I look at last week, I see an upper value area 1777.25 -> 1793 and at this point that is more important to me than the value area marked out by the purple line. I'll use that as last weeks value for today and tomorrow.

So a neutral start, I expect 1800 to break with some areas below us for support and a reasonably clear line in the sand at 74.50.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1754.25 -> 1796.00
Value - 1777.25 -> 1793 (see notes, this is not actual value area)
S1 - 1767.25, R1 - 1807.75


Daily Numbers
Range - 1786.50 (globex)/1788 (pit) -> 1796
Value - 1788.25 -> 1792.25
Globex 1790.75 -> 1794.25

Other - 1788, 1777.25, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Old November 19th, 2013, 07:32 AM   #135 (permalink)
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19th November

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Yesterday, the Globex high got to 1799, then we made it up to 1799.75 with a lot of wiggling around up there before moving down to the prior days value high. Then another attempt at the high which was followed by a lot of narrow activity which probably shook a lot of people out on both sides. We got a final push up but again it failed and at that point we went down from there fairly rapidly.

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We can see 3 or 4 areas of price distribution as we moved up last week, the latter being the 1788 - 1793 area. 1793 is potential resistance above that we have a lower distribution down to 1777.25 which is potential support. So when I look at last week, I see an upper value area 1777.25 -> 1793 and at this point that is more important to me than the value area marked out by the purple line. I'll use that as last weeks value for today.


Globex low has held yesterdays low so far and all action in the current session is below yesterdays value area, which is pretty much the breakdown point (single print @ 92.25). So looking for those to hold. If we break 77, I'll be looking for 50's then 34.50. If we go back to yesterdays value, looking for another attempt at 1800.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 1754.25 -> 1796.00
Value - 1777.25 -> 1793 (see notes, this is not actual value area)
S1 - 1767.25, R1 - 1807.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1784.75 -> 1799.75
Value - 1792.50 -> 1798.50
Globex 1784.75 -> 1791.25

Other - 1792.50, 1788, 1777.25, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Old November 20th, 2013, 07:01 AM   #136 (permalink)
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20th November (5:45am EST)

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Still a fairly small range so far this week. Still within the upper distribution from last week. Looking at that to hold at either the 1777.25 or 1774.50 for continued upside. CPI & Retail sales @ 8:30 AM EST and Home sales @ 10 am. So could be a mover. Again. I'm looking for the downside of 74.50 to see us move to 50 and then 34.50.

Volume yesterday was 1.5 million. Not high but not terribly low.

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Yesterday opened in the middle of the Globex session which was also at the bottom/below value of Mondays session. We poked above the globex high by 10 ticks, pushing into Mondays value area, failed to get to Mondays vlaue area on the second attempt and then we fell through the Globex low by 9 ticks. Quite a symmetrical day in hindsight.

As of writing, we have mostly traded at the bottom of yesterdays range. Yesterdays value high held to the tick. It's quite fairly neutral so unless the news changes things we may see a more rangebound day that respects extremes of yesterday and this morning.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1781.75 -> 1799.75
Value - 1784.50 -> 1792.50
S1 - 1767.25, R1 - 1807.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1782.00 -> 1793.75
Value - 1784.00 -> 1790.50
Globex 1782.00 -> 1790.50

Other - 1792.50, 1788, 1777.25, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Old November 21st, 2013, 05:52 AM   #137 (permalink)
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21st June (4:30am EST)

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Yesterday we mentioned "Looking at that to hold at either the 1777.25 or 1774.50 for continued upside". Yesterdays low was 1774.50. So at least for now, we are still in a position where buyers could step in. The 74.50 level is not meant to be an absolute level. Holding to the tick was not much more than coincidence yesterday. It's an area to be tested and that might include a poke through. Even if we see 72 without much selling and we move back up, then I'd still see it as the leve holding.

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Zooming out a bit we can see the older range from 1734.50-1770 that we broke out from (the red arrow). It does look from this picture that this is just a small blip up before we carry on down but then ranges always look like they are about to break. Obviously, a small poke through to 74.50 and a move up could give us a rapid rise as buyers jump in noting the "Resistance becomes support" that occured at that line.

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Looking at yesterday, we failed after a poke through the high, then moves straight down to 74.50 before the bounce up.

Looking at it this way, I'll be looking to see what happens at 1782 today. If we get back up there but fail, then I'd expect 1774 to break and for us to be at 1750 within a few days and potentially 1734.50.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1774.50 -> 1799.75
Value - 1783.00-> 1794.00
S1 - 1767.25, R1 - 1807.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1774.50 -> 1794.25
Value - 1781.50 -> 1794.00
Globex 1775.75 -> 1782.25

Other - 1792.50, 1788, 1782, 1777.25, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Old November 22nd, 2013, 07:11 AM   #138 (permalink)
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22nd November

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Back up to the highs and so all eyes back on 1800 today. That level will be quite crowded in terms of people jostling for position on both sides. Up to you whether you want to be getting into a position at that point. I personally stay away from entering in those areas. I'd prefer to be long into 1800 off a downside reference point if possible. Then I have breathing room in the trade.

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Yesterday, prior to opening we a high volume node in the globex session that traded 1783.25->1784. We came down off the open to 1783.75 and traded 5.6k contracts, then we traded just 453 at 1783.50. Absolutely no interest at all in selling at 83.50. We then moved off from that level. These high volume nodes created prior to the pit session open have been holding well of late.

We stopped just short of the 1792.50 level (to 1792.00) and rotated for a while before moving on up off the 1792 level through the prior pit session high. I'll leave the 1792.50 level in and not adjust it down because it's in roughly the same area. Thus far in the pit session, that level is holding.

The Globex low/resistance=support level seems a bit close to where we are now to be the launching point for a move up. I'll be watching for that to hold for a move to 1800. If that fails, I'll be looking at the 88.25 level for the same thing. That is yesterdays value low and also one of our levels. If yesterdays low breaks, then it's a re-test of 74.50 on the cards but like last time in this area, I favor the upside. This time I might be right!

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We do have a weekly value low at 84.25 but that doesn't add much as it's just a few ticks above yesterdays low.

Today is about trying for 1800 and possibly a swift sell off and back to 1774.50 if that fails. It's Friday though, so it could just die out. Does 1800 excitement trump regular Friday malaise?


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1774.50 -> 1799.75
Value - 1784.25 -> 1794.75
S1 - 1767.25, R1 - 1807.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 1783.50 -> 1795.50
Value - 1788.25 -> 1793.75
Globex 1792.00 -> 1796.00

Other - 1792.50, 1788, 1782, 1777.25, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; November 22nd, 2013 at 07:46 AM.
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Old November 25th, 2013, 08:23 AM   #139 (permalink)
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25th November

Thanksgiving week. If you do trade, keep an eye on the depth. An average of about 1,500 per level is the norm. If that changes significantly, then so will the volatility.

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We did finally break 1800. I can't decide if 1800 or 1796 is the first level below us. Looking @ the chart above it looks like 1796 is the level and the move up to 1799.75 last week was just a peek through. Still 1800 is a major number and worth watching. In terms of taking a trade, I'd actually be much more comfortable entering at 1796 than 1800.

Thanksgiving may mean it's a quiet one. All eyes are on these highs, will we make more progress upwards or move sideways to establish prices at these levels? I don't know but I think if 1796 breaks, we will 1774.50

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Last weeks value high is 1795.75, which coincides with the 1796 level from above. That gives us a bit more reason to see us staying above that level for continued upside but we could potentially stop at the value low at 1784.25. So that might be a line in the sand between 1796 and 1774.50. Certainly a level to be aware of.

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Fridays value area low is 1796.50 - again that 1796 area is significant. We also have a single print at 1798 but I'm sticking to 1796 as my major line in the sand. We also have Fridays VAH at 1803 which could potentially hold off the open. I'd prefer to come a little lower.

Overnight inventory is almost all long. So look out for an initial adjustment down.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1774.50 -> 1803.25
Value - 1784.25 -> 1795.75
S1 - 1782.75, R1 - 1811.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1792/1792.50 -> 1803.25
Value - 1796.50-> 1803
Globex 1801 -> 1809.25

Other - 1800, 1796, 1792.50, 1788, 1784, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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Old November 26th, 2013, 09:12 AM   #140 (permalink)
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26th November

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We did get an initial adjustment down at the open yesterday. That is often the case when overnight inventory is quite long. We went into a fairly small range after that first push down and stayed in the 1802.25-> 1805.75 for about 5 hours. Anyone who got the breakdown that occurred towards the end of the day deserves a medal for persistence and perhaps another for Zen like focus.

It's a holiday week - so I guess it's shaping up to be narrow one.

We went through 1800 but not to our first line in the sand at 1796.

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There's nothing to add that we didn't say yesterday -

"Last weeks value high is 1795.75, which coincides with the 1796 level from above. That gives us a bit more reason to see us staying above that level for continued upside but we could potentially stop at the value low at 1784.25. So that might be a line in the sand between 1796 and 1774.50. Certainly a level to be aware of."

"Fridays value area low is 1796.50 - again that 1796 area is significant. We also have a single print at 1798 but I'm sticking to 1796 as my major line in the sand. We also have Fridays VAH at 1803 which could potentially hold off the open. I'd prefer to come a little lower."

The current Globex session is fairly narrow and neutral. Hard to really call the open either way.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1774.50 -> 1803.25
Value - 1784.25 -> 1795.75
S1 - 1782.75, R1 - 1811.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 1798.50->1806.75(pit)/1809.25 (globex)
Value - 1802.50 -> 1805.50
Globex 1801 -> 1805.50

Other - 1809.25, 1800, 1796, 1792.50, 1788, 1784, 1774.50, 1764, 1761, 1750, 1742.75, 1734.50, 1725.75, 1712.75

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