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DTs Pre Market Prep

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3rd Dec



Huge gap up overnight. Looks like it's off the back of China/US agreeing no new tarrifs for a while. So as usual with something like this - first order of the day is how US traders take this news & whether they agree with these new prices.

Stock market was closed obviously during this move up. So the other thing to be on the look out for is any short term rebalancing off the open which would be a move down. So any immediate move down off the open should be looked on with a bit of skepticism and might actually be a good buying opportunity if it runs out of steam.

Above us, the 2817-2824 area is a line in the sand, so eyes on a move away after a test, in either direction.



A 30 point gap up and not much below till 2745 - so we do have to be wary of any strong moves down if there is a lot of volume.



Not much to say about the daily levels today - we are so far away, they probably won't be relevant.



ISM PMI at 10am - but I doubt that will alter the tone for the day.

Plan
- if we push down for the open, look for weakness & take a long
- if any move down is sustained, then look to join with the prospect of 2760 or 2745 (may take a couple of days)
- ears on the news because if this US/China agreement gets pulled - market will drop like a stone. Conversely - any warming in relationships will see a rise
- moves away from a test of 2817-2824 with good volume also worth joining.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2631.50 -> 2764.75
Value - too elongated

Daily Numbers
Range - 2729 / 2733.25 -> 2764.75
Value - 2737.25 -> 2753.75
Globex - 2793 -> 2814

Settlement - 2758.25

Today only - 2817-2824

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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4th Dec



No major reaction to the gap up. Lots of contracts but just a push down and then back up. We didn't quite get to our 17-24 level but got as close as 15. Still eyes on that & the gap close at 64.75.



Not much volume from here down to 2745, so if we so push down, we could easily blow through 64.75.



Yesterdays value held overnight so far. So eyes on the day trader levels (below) today.



Not much news to shift us today.

Plan
- Neutral bias going in, opening trade on
- Watching day trader levels + the 2817-2824 area and the gap close at 64.75 as well as 2745
- Gut feel is any break down will bring in sellers but the gap close is pretty close now.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2631.50 -> 2764.75
Value - too elongated

Daily Numbers
Range - 2773.50 -> 2802.50 / 2814.25
Value - 2780 -> 2792
Globex - 2767.25 -> 2791.25

Settlement - 2790.75

Today only - 2817-2824, 2764.75

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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6th December



Well, so much for 'gap up'/end of trade war... some big moves down the past few days - but overall we are in a big range and the bottom isn't well defined - but we are close to it.... 2603->2626. I'd see them as 2 seperate levels rather than a range and a push through 26 and absorption on the bid side would be a decent cue for the market to hold.

I do expect a big move if we break the range - it's just a bit hard to tell where the break is - so just looking for big volume below 26 with caution at 03.



Not really expecting much from this weeks profile - but eyes on 2705 if we do move up.



As yesterday was a market holiday - I'm not looking too much at the levels other than what we trade overnight.

This is a big move down overnight - so as usual - look for a snap back up off the open but be wary that it might just be rebalancing. It may be worth sitting out the first 15-30 mins too.



Plenty of news too- plus an OPEC meeting. So really - what could possibly go wrong today?

Plan
- Range low just below, so watching to see if we break it or hold it. It's just tricky as the bottom is poorly defined.
- careful about initial moves as the US traders open to this 2nd large drop this week
- the meek may want to sit the first 15 minutes out!

Today only - 2603, 2626

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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7th December



Yesterday we were looking for the range low around 26 or 03. As you can see above it was around the most recent push down. So a push through and rebound up.

Overnight another push down. Looking left we are in a big range. So my expectation after testing the low is we traverse to the highs - but we should consider the current position to be just like the middle of any range - choppy. So it might take a few attempts to get on the right side of any move.

OR - look at an instrument with some liquidity...



Not much to deduce from the weekly profile - 200 points range almost. It's just really, really volatile.



Interestingly - the overnight session bottomed out around yesterdays value high and topped out around yesterdays day session high. It doesn't seem like it would be a technical market but with the hold of the range low, I guess we'd better keep an eye on the levels today.



Plenty of news again. Order of the day is assess the volatility - yesterday it was sweeping 6 or 7 levels at a time and that's a tough environment to trade in as it requires a lot more risk.

Plan
- Open Trade on
- Long bias - be nice to see a downside level tested for a long - which would need market moving down another 9 points from here. Alternative would be a break of yesterdays high. Between the 2 - I don't see a great reason for getting in.
- of course if yesterdays high holds, then shorts are on - so treating it like a typical day trader day but more 'slidey' and looking to enter into momentum AFTER a level.

Weekly levels - too elongated IMO

Daily Numbers
Range - 2621.25 -> 2699.25
Value - 2639.25 -> 2699.75
Globex - 2670.25 -> 2798.75

Settlement - 2691

Today only - 2603->2626

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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10th December



Huge day on Friday, so first thing we want to know today is if we'll have a stable market or not. We still haven't tested the 2603 low to the right and I'd be very interested if we push through that and then start to spring up - classic headfake.

Other than that - it's a potentially dangerous market.

According to CNBC - the sky is falling https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/09/bear-market-is-here-brace-for-20percent-plunge-ned-davis-research.html - lol -once again - media getting all predictive of a drop in the markets AFTER it's gone down 10%.... One can only assume Ned Davis are buyers...



Weekly profile is huge - over 200 points last week and for me, that makes the value area a bit useless. We can see most volume concentrated below 2730 - so eyes on a move above that.



Fridays value area held overnight - not sure if that means we are in for a more 'technical day'. We did drop a lot on Friday but we are still within range.



Not much news after 10am.

Plan
- On the lookout for an orderly market or not. If it's too wild - stand aside
- Watch for a headfake if we push below 2603
- watch out for acceleration above 2730
- As we are close to the bottom of the range, we need to see if the market can put in a decisive move away to jump on - but only if it's not too erratic.


Weekly levels
2621.25 -> 2814
Value - too elongated

Daily Numbers
Range - 2623.25 -> 2709.75
Value - 2631.25 -> 2674.75
Globex - 2610.25 -> 2632.50

Settlement - 2636

Today only - 2603->2626

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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DionysusToast View Post
- watch out for acceleration above 2730


Peter, forgive me for the noobish question but I was curious about this statement... there's a large gap in the profile there, why wouldn't we expect to see price slow around that area and begin filling it in?

Also, do you strictly use TPO or do you ever consult volume profile?

Thanks
Shane

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Rrrracer View Post
Peter, forgive me for the noobish question but I was curious about this statement... there's a large gap in the profile there, why wouldn't we expect to see price slow around that area and begin filling it in?

Also, do you strictly use TPO or do you ever consult volume profile?

Thanks
Shane


Quite often if hardly anyone traded those prices on the way down - they don't on the way up.

In theory it's down to the positions remaining there.

Or flip the question on it's head. If no-one traded those priced on the way down, why would they on the way up?

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OK - so looking at today - we have China news aka 'trade war', we have Ms Meng the Merciless in Jail in Canada, we have Mrs May going full retard on Brexit.

There's Risk on, Risk off & Run off. I think today is for the latter.

I will watch - but not planning to trade this - Brexit coming to the fore again is just one uncertainty too many. Liquidity is useless as it is, so I'm going to sit it out today....

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That's interesting; do you ever look at/trade 6E? A lot of times I see behaviour that is the complete opposite... if a profile has a large range with low volume, price comes back to fill in the gaps. Curious about why this might be the case for some instruments but maybe not others?


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Rrrracer View Post
That's interesting; do you ever look at/trade 6E? A lot of times I see behaviour that is the complete opposite... if a profile has a large range with low volume, price comes back to fill in the gaps. Curious about why this might be the case for some instruments but maybe not others?

Attachment 260089

Not a shock - different markets, different behavior.

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