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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #1311 (permalink)
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7th November



Looks like Dems have the house. The overnight market is up but it remains to be seen how the mass of US Traders will react to the news.

We have increased news risk today and the next few days as the market absorbes the news and politicians put their feet in their mouths. Ears and eyes on the news.

Eyes on the pullback we had in the move down - 2820.



I'm not using the weekly profile still as it's still very volatile.



We are up overnight, so be wary of any snap back down off the open - might just be rebalancing.



Not a lot of scheduled news at the moment....

Plan
- This is primarily a new-driven market, so technical levels are not so important
- Any move down off the open will be treated with suspicion
- I'm going to see how things play out, skip the opening trade and see if we have directional trade - if it's wild and illiquid, I'll stand aside

Daily Numbers
Range - 2729.75 . 2735.75 -> 2761
Value - 27042 -> 2751.50
Globex - 2744.75 -> 2786.25

Settlement - 2756.75

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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8th November



Still very volatile. Now we are up to the 2820 level - the pullback from the way down. It's an inflection point, so any move away in either direction has a good chance of follow through (not to mention the overall volatility).



No weekly profile with these moves, it's too elongated and with this volatility, I don't see any point in trying to be too cerebral about price levels.



Average news day till 2pm with the FOMC.

So this is going to be interesting - a period of high volatility and the FOMC in an election week. So I don't expect the usual slow FOMC morning.

Plan
- wary of 2820 area but will play a move away
- as usual in these volatile times - just try to find a decent place to join the moves.


Daily Numbers

Range - 2735.75 / 2744.50 -> 2787
Value - 2777.25 -> 2802.25
Globex - 2802 -> 2818

Settlement - 2802.75

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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Would you clarify the range levels? They don't match with yesterday's range or week's range either. Thanks

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nonojnet View Post
Would you clarify the range levels? They don't match with yesterday's range or week's range either. Thanks

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OK - I use the prior days regular trading hours session AND the overnight range if it's outside.

So

a / b -> c

would be

a - previous overnight low (there as it's lower than day session low)
b - day session low
c - day session high (which is higher than overnight high)

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13th November



Note - this is a VERY early prep, so please understand the overnight numbers will need reviewing. 6 hours in immigration yesterday and looks like the same today! Hence the early prep.

Veterans day didn't keep many people away from the markets. As we discussed last week, the 2820 area held. I think this is more to do with there not being that much around - now we are down to 2711 area which is also a significant swing in this high volume erratic chop we've been in since October. So this may be significant & a move away in either direction should be decent. I would not however, trade the level itself.



Once again, looking left this market is far too volatile to get meaning from the weekly profiles in my opinion, so they are off the table at the moment.



From the daily levels - keep an eye on the 2752 area - we moved back up to it yesterday before dropping.

Plan
- watch the 2511 area (but be flexible, it is volatile remember) - we want it to rest around there and then move away. To see a pause (indecision) and then something decisive.
- Other than that, it's the volatility play. Careful getting in and then layer into a position.

Daily Numbers
Range - 2722.25 -> 2777.50 / 2795.25
Value - 2730.25 -> 2851.75
Globex - 2719.25 -> 2735.50

Settlement - 2727.25

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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Personally I hope the volatility continues, even though I know it probably won't . I've had 20 straight days of profitable ES trading, mostly taking advantage of the volatility. I'm dreading getting into low volume chop days again .

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CarneyRules View Post
Personally I hope the volatility continues, even though I know it probably won't . I've had 20 straight days of profitable ES trading, mostly taking advantage of the volatility. I'm dreading getting into low volume chop days again .

You should switch to DAX

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28th November

Back off vacation with my 23 year old nephew. I needed a break!



Volume is way down the past few days but it's still quite illiquid. Oddly, on Monday - we started off trading 5-600 per level for about 20 mins and then the liquidity all dropped and we were back to less than 100 to eat through each price.

So a move down, less volume in this retrace up but overall we seem to be in a range 2600-2820. It could be the drop in volume is lack of interest in the range OR it could be a low volume pullback which means a push down would see increased participation/continuation.



Last week, we can see a huge drop from 2730 to 2700. So 2700 is worth keeping an eye on today. If it breaks upside, we could be at 2730 very quickly.



The market does appear to be back to a somewhat technical state, holding prior days high/low, value high/low. So I think that 'game' is coming back which would also indicate a return to normality.

Of course, it's an indication and not a guarantee - so let's see how it plays out.



Eyes on Home Sales @ 10am

Plan
- eyes on 2700 for a hold/break (a line in the sand)
- eyes on any move down that gathers steam and sees a lot of volume indicating a willing to break the downside
- other than that - the open trade is on today and watching the day trader levels for a reaction

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2631.50 -> 2692.50
Value - 2656.50 -> 2676.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2655.25 -> 2684 / 2684.25
Value - 2666.50 -> 2679
Globex - 2681 -> 2692.50

Settlement - 2683.50

Today only - 2700

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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29th November



An interesting day yesterday. Powell speaking did move the market but it still remains a reasonably 'technical' market.

By that I mean - it really looks like day traders are playing the common trades on ES and being the dominant force. In terms of yesterday we said "Last week, we can see a huge drop from 2730 to 2700. So 2700 is worth keeping an eye on today. If it breaks upside, we could be at 2730 very quickly." - and that's what happened. Yesterdays overnight low was just above prior days value. Todays overnight has held the prior days value/high. It's not a guarantee but this seems to be somewhat back to normal players at the table.

To the left, we can see that 2750 held before the last push down. That's where we are close to now, so any move away with volume will probably be jumped on.



The weekly profiles show that break at 2700 - there's still not much traded between 2700 and 2720, so eyes on that.



Daily high is holding overnight so eyes on that.



FOMC today - but still expecting some volatility in the AM.

Plan
- early trade on (note yesterday, there was no step near the open)
- watching day trader levels for a reaction
- eyes on 2750 - prior rejection - jump on strong moves away in either direction

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2631.50 -> 2692.50
Value - too elongated

Daily Numbers
Range - 2681 / 2684.25 -> 2745
Value -too elongated
Globex - 2728.75 -> 2742.25

Settlement - 2741.50

Today only - 2725 (expecting a drop to 2700 below), 2750 (prior rejection)

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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30th Nov



We poked through the 2750 level from yesterday (after FOMC) and we then moved down. So eyes on continuation down OR any re-test at 2750.



Still also looking at that upper distribution, so a drop below 25-30, will likely see a run down to 2700.



It was a relatively slow day yesterday, we did get post FOMC volatility but not a wide range relative to the last couple of months action.

Overnight, it's back to "technical" - rotating around yesterdays value area.



Not much news, unless you are from Canadia, eh?

Plan
- Watching 2750 as a line in the sand, & the 25-30 area with the prospect of a drop below (but churn up if it holds)
- Other than that, watching the day trader levels today and an eye on the volatility.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2631.50 -> 2754.50
Value - too elongated

Daily Numbers
Range - 2723.25 -> 2754.50
Value - 2729.25 -> 2745.25
Globex - 2731 -> 2743.50

Settlement - 2744.25

Today only - 2725-30 (expecting a drop to 2700 below), 2750 (prior rejection)

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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