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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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23rd October



Back to the lows again - still interested in what happens if we get to 2697 area below.



I wouldn't normally put too much stock in the profiles with this much volatility but I would keep an eye on 2750-2755 for a reaction as we did seem to break from that point.



Which is basically the same story we see here. The drop was overnight though - not an intraday breakdown.

As usual when we break overnight, the open is all about whether the market accepts the lower prices but also about the rebalance because futures moved significantly and stock market didn't - so any opening move has to be viewed with suspicion as that could just be the markets getting into synch.



Not much news, not that it would make a lot of difference with this volatility.

Plan
- if we open down - be wary of any move up off the open (rebalance)
- take momentum moves but only after 9:45am
- eyes on 2967 and 2550-55

Weekly Numbers
- Really not looking at these levels right now with all this volatility

Daily Numbers

Range - 2749.75 -> 2782 / 2800.50
Value - 2754 -> 2771.75
Globex - 2714.25 -> 2757.50

Settlement - 2756.50


Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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24th October



Yesterday we said "Back to the lows again - still interested in what happens if we get to 2697 area below. "

And now we've hit it and we had a very nice bounce up. We are now heading back down, so eyes on the level and expect a big push down if it breaks. It's also possible that this overnight push down will be done and that we could be set for a move back up to 2820.



Really not much to see here in my opinion.



We can see the rejection as we made it through that old low was pretty swift and now we are just waiting to see if we get follow through



Eyes on the news but the volatility is already with us, so I don't see the news being a big influence.

Plan
- Follow momentum
- Pay particular attention above yesterdays high for a run up and around 2697 area if we revisit - moves away either direction should be excessive

Weekly Numbers
- Really not looking at these levels right now with all this volatility

Daily Numbers
Range - 2749.75 -> 2782 / 2800.50
Value - 2754 -> 2771.75
Globex - 2714.25 -> 2757.50

Settlement - 2746.25

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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25th October



We had eyes on 2697 yesterday with the expectation of a big push down if it broke & that's what we got. The next level down is 2562 or thereabouts. So eyes on yesterdays low, if that breaks I will be looking for more downside participation.



You can see the small consolidation here before it broke the 2697 level. We are now in no-mans land with the exception of yesterdays range potentially giving is some cues. So there's not a lot to play off but there is volatility to follow.



Once again - volatility overrides news at the moment.

Plan
- Not a day for precise entries again - but shorts below yesterdays low look interesting
- Other than that, try to follow momentum moves

Weekly Numbers
- Really not looking at these levels right now with all this volatility

Daily Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2750 / 2757.50
Value - 27505 -> 2748.50
Globex - 2658.75 -> 2692.50

Settlement - 2664.25

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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26th October



We seem to be resisting moves to push down - or rather we are on the 3rd attempt, 3rd consecutive day to break down decisively through 2650. So I figure if it does that in the day session, we could see people jumping on the downside for another run down. At this point, I am somewhat tempted to play a longer term trade to the upside - although I'd like to see it a lot lower first.



We can see a decent push down over night but not managed to stay below 2650 so far.



Eyes on the news - especially GDP & any shift in consumer confidence.

In my opinion - we have a bit more going on today in terms of levels. As we've had 3 pushes down at this 2650 - any breakdown will be significant in my opinion. We do have to be aware that any initial move up may just be the stocks & futures rebalancing.

Plan
- Be wary of intial moves up & ready to fade them
- shorts below overnight low
- momentum trades elsewhere - focus on trying to get into a runner and happy to scratch a few in the process

Weekly Numbers
- Really not looking at these levels right now with all this volatility

Daily Numbers
Range - 2658.75 / 2667.50 -> 2723.75
Value - 2685 -> 2709.50
Globex - 2646 -> 2690

Settlement - 2688.25

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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29th October



We did breakdown again on Friday but just couldn't hold it. We are getting participation on the pushes down but there doesn't seem to be the strength to push is down to 2560 level below.



There's plenty of volume and volatility but no direction. I think that it's a mistake to try reading too much into this.



Eyes on personal spending, if that is off, I'd expect a good push down.

Plan
- No bias, high expectation of volatility
- try to jump on moves, once under way
- look for longs if we dip below overnight or Fridays low
- don't be too cerebral about it

Weekly Numbers
- Really not looking at these levels right now with all this volatility

Daily Numbers
Range - 2627.25 -> 2692.75
Value - 2644.50 -> 2674.50
Globex - 2660 -> 2692.50

Settlement - 2669.50

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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30th October

First of all - sorry for the typo yesterday - should have said "short below Friday/overnight low" not Long...



A 100 point range on the S&P yesterday and just under 3 million contracts traded, whilst it doesn't impact our day trading. you do have to wonder if that excess might be the beginning of the end of this high volatility period.

Direction wise - we are set to open in the middle of yesterdays range.



It's a little misleading looking at the chart because with the scaling - this 100 point day doesn't look much different to a 10 point day.

Plan
- I still can't see much use in trying to predict this market or any turning points
- I prefer multiple attempts at getting into a momentum move and then scaling in
- I think downside moves are the best play, especially after breaking prior lows

Weekly Numbers
- Really not looking at these levels right now with all this volatility

Daily Numbers
Range - 2603 -> 2707
Value - 2645.50 -> 2706.25
Globex - 2636.50 -> 2664

Settlement - 2643.50

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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1st November

Sorry prep was missed yesterday, I spent 6 hours looking at a ticket with a number on it in a Govt office. Hence, I was not quite as "Zen" as usual and decided my head wasn't in the game.



First thing I think when I see this is "I wonder how many people are now married to the upside now". So for now, I am going to stay neutrally biased because this is a helluva potential trap. I'm not biased downside and will take longs but I think there could well be a shake out before we head up to 3000



Looking down, I could see us dipping into 2690-2700 and that being rejected, so eyes on that. Volatility has started to decrease but again, I don't see we can say "it's over" just yet. So expecting volatility still.



Obviously - watch out @ 10am!

Plan
- Neutral bias
- On the lookout for a shakeout to the downside
- other than that - just follow the volatility for now, still not relying on levels

Daily Numbers
Range - 2681.75 / 2706.25 -> 2737.25
Value - 2713.75 -> 2730.25
Globex - 2704 -> 2727.25

Settlement - 2711

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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2nd November



Market up, volume down - although volume is still decent.



It was more of a grind up yesterday, which I see as a stronger move. Overall, I feel there is a good chance of a shake-out of some sort but I'll go with the flow. I still think it's a bit volatile to follow regular day trader levels but not that yesterdays value low has held overnight. So better watch them anyway.



That's a lot of news going into today.

First order though - we are set to open with a decent gap up. So look out for any moves down off the open as they may just be the futures/stock rebalancing.

Plan
- Be wary of any initial moves down off the open
- Look for longs off yesterdays high, fades of overnight range, longs above overnight high - let the levels hold, then jump on

Daily Numbers
Range - 2704 / 2707.75 -> 2741.25
Value - 2723.50 -> 2737
Globex - 2722.75 -> 2764.50

Settlement - 2738

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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5th November

Bonfire night in the UK. Fireworks in the US. For my take on the way to work your way around the election - take a look: https://www.jigsawtrading.com/2018/11/05/mid-term-election-week-what-traders-need-to-know/



We fell back on Friday - another big range day but not the shake out I was thinking we'd get. I think now the election will make the markets "non-technical"



A big weekly range, I'm going to ignore the weeklies again this week - it's just too much of a range and was too volatile to consider it will yield any useful reference prices.



A fairly tame overnight session considering Friday.



Eye's on 10am for PMI.

Plan
- first thing is to see how the volatility is - Friday was huge but overnight very slow
- aggressive on joining moves down, especially on a break of Friday low/Overnight low
- basically looking to jump on volatility if we have it. If we don't, I'm honestly not sure which levels we'd play off

Daily Numbers
Range - 2699.25 -> 2756.50
Value - 2706.25 -> 2727.75
Globex - 2712.75 -> 2723

Settlement - 2724.25

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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Election day - no trading for me!

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