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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #1291 (permalink)
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26th September



Still in the same place, seems like everyone waiting to see which way it will break.



Very evenly distributed & narrow profile.



And not much here other than continuing the sideways theme.



FOMC at 2PM.

We have had mornings of FOMC where we've broken ranges but it's low probability. So expectation is range till 2pm, then a break. Hopefully that will end up with us trading out of this range as we head into tomorrow.

Plan
- Aggressively look for an opening trade, as we may stall early on.
- Apart from the day trader levels, look for fades above 30 and below 20 - nothing in between
- Low expectation day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2917.75 -> 2934.25
Value - 2923 -> 2928.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2918.25 -> 2930.25 / 2934.25
Value - 2920.25 -> 2926.50
Globex - 2922 -> 2938.75

Settlement - 2921.25

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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  #1292 (permalink)
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27th September



No surprise yesterday, FOMC took us on the usual post-announcement wild ride. Overnight we've held the lows, so eyes on a "snap back" today".

Kavanaugh testimony starts at 10am - so while I think that won't be impactful, it's worth keeping an eye on.



Eye's on 2920 on any move up. If we get above 2920, I expect chop.



We can see the big move here. Obviously the rate hike is good & bad. Interest rates are still low & the FED have a rosy outlook. So you have to think about whether you believe that move was the market pricing the new rate in - or a bit of a knee jerk and prop traders making bank. I think the latter.

So I'm looking initially for any sort of reaction - a snap back, or a move down through yesterdays low. Whatever happens though - above 2920, we had a lot of chop, below the same. So any sustained move needs a trigger - which is what the snap back up would be.



News could be another trigger.

Plan
- Look for an initial move off the open to join
- Be wary of that dying out
- Be wary of us entering chop zones above/below
- Basically, we could revert back too the slow funk we were in earlier on.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2907.50 -> 2936
Value - 2920.25 -> 2929.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2907.25 -> 2936
Value - 2921.50 -> 2934
Globex - 2907.50 -> 2916.25

Settlement - 2911.50

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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28th September



Volume still not great, still in a range but action has been more fluid after FOMC. Overnight range is good.



Range - basically just confirming what the dailies show.



Yesterday had some great momentum moves. The top of the major distribution on the weekly profile is 30 and we went through it 2 points before reversing. Eyes on 2930 still today. Down overnight. Be suspicious of any move up off the open as it may just be a rebalance.



Lot's of news today - so eyes on that, especially a move at 8:30am EST.


Plan
- Look for a rebalance off the open - initial move up that may well die out
- Yesterdays low is an inflection point, so play moves away in either direction
- Look for fade's at 2930

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2907.50 -> 2936
Value - 2919.25 -> 2930.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2907.50 / 2914 -> 2932
Value - 2920.75 -> 2930.75
Globex - 2908 -> 2924.25

Settlement - 2920

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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2nd October



Quite the dance if indecision we have here.

In fact, we really don't need much more than this chart for todays prep:



Market is all over the place. No real direction, yet a decent range most day.



Nothing in the news to shake things up, either.

For me - I see no point in trying to over-analyze this or make up scenarios. There's no clear direction and no clear prices other than perhaps 2908 and around 2941 (for fades).

It's a matter of low expectations in terms of direction but decent expectations in terms of range.

Plan
- Shorts ok down to 2908
- fades at 2908, 2941
- other than that,try to stay on the right side of short term momentum
- daily levels are in play to an extent (mostly cause there's not that much else on I guess)

Daily Numbers
Range - 2922.50 -> 2941.50
Value - 2927.50 -> 2930.75
Globex - 2908 -> 2938.50

Settlement - 2930

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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4th October



Middle of the range still. Market still not giving us much to work off.



Very evenly distributed profile - just confirms the range.



Did I mention the range?



not much news to shake us out.

Despite the overall range, the day ranges aren't too bad. But it's risky action in terms of the potential for getting chopped about multiple times.

Plan
- No Bias
- fade range extremes 2910 and 2940 would be approx places to look for fades
- look to lean on day trader levels for shorter term trades
- other than that, fade small ranges and try to jump on breakouts, no hurry to trade

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2913 -> 2944.75
Value - 292425 -> 2939.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2925.50 -> 2944.75
Value - 2934.25 -> 2944.75
Globex - 2913.25 -> 2926.25

Settlement - 2931/50

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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It's been a while that @DionysusToast doesn't post regulary. It's a shame, it is a very useful thread

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nonojnet View Post
It's been a while that @DionysusToast doesn't post regulary. It's a shame, it is a very useful thread


Wife's away at the moment.

I'm all Marigold gloves and school runs at the moment....

Will be back soon...

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18th October



Obviously very volatile at the moment, if we look back we had a range with a low of around 2697 previously and I'd love to see that tested as I think it'll give us good momentum either way.



Personally, when it's this volatile I find profiles a bit misleading but let's go there. It does appear a drop below 2800 would see us at 2770 pretty fast. So eyes on 2820 for a move back down to the upper range low at 2800 and if that breaks a move to 2770....



We did range earlier this week but still it's hardly 'simple range trade' action. But I think this does back up the potential of staying in the upper range - trouble is shortfalls & extensions are likely to be large, so it's more intellectual pursuit that 'where to get in.



A little news - but I doubt it'll have much impact on the current volatility but ears on Bullard...

Plan
- watch range extremes (volume-wise) around 2800 and 2820 and play breaks away
- Target 2770 on a break down
- No trades between 2800 and 2800
- Try to scale into trades if volatility remains high

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2806 -> 2824.25
Value - 2745.5 -> 2824.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2783.25 -> 2824.25
Value - 2802 -> 2818.75
Globex - 2800.25 -> 2914.75

Settlement - 2816.25

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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DionysusToast View Post
18th October

...

Plan
- watch range extremes (volume-wise) around 2800 and 2820 and play breaks away
- Target 2770 on a break down
- No trades between 2800 and 2800
- Try to scale into trades if volatility remains high

...

I agree, reward too low

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19th October



Up, down, up down lots of volatility but a coin toss market IMO.



We've filled in the middle of the profile a bit but I don't see this helpful for today. In face, we are in the middle of the weeks range right now.



Yesterdays idea for no trades between 2800 and 2820 paid off - although you'd have needed to hold on tight or get in a 2nd time for it to have really paid off.



As per yesterday, there are announcements - but I think the volatility is the theme of the day and doubt it'll be relevant.

Plan
- Not an ideal location to be starting at, at the moment - middle of the weeks range.
- look for a break below yesterdays low and volume coming in
- otherwise, just proceed with caution - it could take off either way but IMO plan for the day should be avoiding chasing the market too much and getting caught up in volatile chop.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745.25 -> 2824.25
Value - 2747.50 -> 2802.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2756.50 -> 2814.75
Value - 2775.25 -> 2814.75
Globex - 2771 -> 2785.50

Settlement - 2772.25

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50, 2697

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