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DTs Pre Market Prep

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28th March



Still looking at this as a potential range low here, so looking to play the upside above 2596.



90 points range already - and back to the lows - I don't really see any significant areas here, even though there's an argument for a lower distribution, the overall action hasn't indicated that's significant.



As you can see - a huge drop yesterday and looking left it's really wide sessions without leaving us with many clues as to where it will turn but with a big clue to scale into any prolonged move.

Plan
- longs above 2595 - but no real targets, so a matter of trying to stay with any move and scale in if it starts running
- Watch the extremes of the week - but other than that, I don't see much significant to play off


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2591-> 2679.75
Value - 2596.25 - 2654

Daily Numbers
Range - 2596 -> 2675.75
Value - N/A - too elongated
Globex - 2600 -> 2624

Settlement 2615.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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29th March



Volatile but no direction - so there's money on the table if you play it right. Our presumed range low is still holding but no signs of us



We are building up the distribution at the lows so look for fades at 2600 and 2630



That's an ugly profile. Almost symmetrical in how it extended through the low and up then the high early on.

Plan
- no bias
- looking to trade early on when it's cleaner than later on the offchance we go over the same area many times
- look to 2600 and 2630 as the extremes - be very wary of any trades in the middle
- so an early trade if there is one, then patience waiting to see how the range extremes do

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2591-> 2679.75
Value - 2600.75 - 2634

Daily Numbers
Range - 2593 -> 2633.75
Value - 2605.75 -> 2621.50
Globex - 2601 -> 2616

Settlement 2607.50

Today only 2600, 2630

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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3rd April



Back from the long weekend and although yesterday was a holiday in many places but there was a lot of volume.

We have probed though the low and we are now looking to see if it holds. Obviously the macro economic background is that there's a looming trade war, so this might not be a technical market at all. So we need a lot of confirmation



Weekly Profile isn't much use to us yet - you can see how little traded between 2590 and 2630 - so longs above 2590 are of interest.



Same story here. I like 2590 as a line in the sand going into today - longs above, shorts below. Also - watching below 55 for another breakdown - even though that seems a long way down from here.

Plan
- Looking for a momentum day
- Longs above 2590, shorts below
- Keeping in mind this market might not be very technical

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2591-> 2679.75
Value - N/A


Daily Numbers

Range - 2551.75 -> 2638
Value - 2553.75 -> 2591.75
Globex - 2675.25 -> 2589.50

Settlement 2575

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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4th April



More tariffs from China announced today and the market took a dive. This is not a technical market.

Yesterday off the open, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were all over the place, to the point where the DOW/Nasdaq were close to useless in refining a trade entry.

The market is volatile - opportunity is there but not the opportunity to enter with a 4 tick stop, nor the opportunity to pinpoint reversal areas ahead of time.



You can see the drop on the tariff news overnight here. We are at high risk of news hitting during the US session too. So for today we are ignoring levels and going with a simple plan....

1 -Try to scale into a position when the market appears to be putting in a run
2- Don't be too aggressive cutting positions just because it goes against a few ticks
3 - Be happy to not trade if it is just moving around wildly with no signs of follow through

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5th April



We are basically in the same situation today as we were yesterday. From a technical perspective, looks like the bottom of the range has held and we are now heading up.

Reality is that we are still very much at the mercy of the "trade war" news. Both in terms of making us more volatile but also in terms of the risk of unannounced news making the market move violently in either direction.



Yesterday a 90 point range including overnight and we've continued up.

No levels today, I don't feel it's the kind of day we can expect anything like a "to the tick" move. So once again, we are ignoring levels and going with a simple plan....

1 -Try to scale into a position when the market appears to be putting in a run
2- Don't be too aggressive cutting positions just because it goes against a few ticks
3 - Be happy to not trade if it is just moving around wildly with no signs of follow through

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6th April



A relatively narrow day with just over 1.5 million contracts traded. We still have US & China putting out "tit for tat" tariff announcements which send the market in a spin.

Whilst the slowdown yesterday is nice, I wouldn't yet take it as a sign that volatility is dropping.



We can see that overnight we have about 45 point range, so that's a sign volatility ISN'T slowing down. So news risk high, probably less liquidity overall and likely a good range IF you can just get on the right side of it.

So once again, we are ignoring levels and going with a simple plan....

1 -Try to scale into a position when the market appears to be putting in a run
2- Don't be too aggressive cutting positions just because it goes against a few ticks
3 - Be happy to not trade if it is just moving around wildly with no signs of follow through

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DionysusToast View Post

Daily Numbers

Range - 2551.75 -> 2638
Value - 2553.75 -> 2591.75
Globex - 2675.25 -> 2589.50

DionysusToast , what does the globex range represent?
Thanks.

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Grantx View Post
DionysusToast , what does the globex range represent?
Thanks.

Range from overnight trade

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9th April



No let up in the trade war and things warming up in Syria. So high news risk again. I do have my eye on the inner range we seem to be stuck in - but not married to any opinions today.



We are in the middle of Fridays huge range. Not much volatility overnight though. So news risk high, probably a volatile day. Not looking at levels but just trying to find a safe spot to get in.

So once again, we are ignoring levels and going with a simple plan....

1 -Try to scale into a position when the market appears to be putting in a run
2- Don't be too aggressive cutting positions just because it goes against a few ticks
3 - Be happy to not trade if it is just moving around wildly with no signs of follow through

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10th April



Another volatile day - still within our range and exceptional volatility overnight. There are signs that China is backing down a little on the "Trade War" front - so hopefully all the saber rattling is over now and the markets will settle down.



Overall a market with no real bias, so we are sticking to the "try to catch onto a runner" plan and stay away from anything that is trying to predict where the reactions will occur.

So once again, we are ignoring levels and going with a simple plan....

1 -Try to scale into a position when the market appears to be putting in a run
2- Don't be too aggressive cutting positions just because it goes against a few ticks
3 - Be happy to not trade if it is just moving around wildly with no signs of follow through

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23rd April

Back to trading after the Thai New Year Break. 3 New Years celebrations a year out here keeps things entertaining.



We have continued (albeit messily) around the range we market out a few weeks ago. Looks like volatility has been on/off so I'm starting back resuming with the levels. Let's see how long that lasts!



Quite an ugly profile from last week - eyes on 2696 today as we have a fairly significant step in the profile there.



We've held Fridays value low overnight. I never like weeks where we start off in Fridays range as we often get range weeks from them.

Plan
- Looking for signs range will commence to the upside - caution around 2696 but bullish past that
- Shorts below 2660
- Other than that - looking for obvious momentum to join. First day back, so will be looking to get back into the groove of things and not be too aggressive.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2659.75-> 2718.50
Value - 2659.75 -> 2716.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2659.75 -> 2694.75 / 2698.25
Value - 2664.75-> 2679.25
Globex - 2666.25 -> 2685

Settlement 2671.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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24th April



Not much move yesterday - as per yesterdays prep - we have to consider the likelyhood of a range week.


Quoting 
We've held Fridays value low overnight. I never like weeks where we start off in Fridays range as we often get range weeks from them.



Not much to see on the VP yet - just confirming typical rangebound action.



We are now at the top of the potential range, so hopefully we'll push up and out. If not it's shorts above 85 and longs below 60.

Plan
- Presume a range between 60-85
- Look for an open trade as it may be choppy later on
- play away from the range only if there's a high volume swing taking us out

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2659.75-> 2718.50
Value - 2659.75 -> 2716.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2657.25 -> 2683 / 2684.50
Value - 2666 -> 2679.50
Globex - 2670 -> 2688

Settlement 2671.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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25th April



We broke out of that early range yesterday, which is good - so now what we want is to hit the low of the range.

That will give us some degree of predictability. Up from here really puts is in a narrowing range from a long term perspective which is an odd thing to day after such a big drop.

We did have some interesting financial news yesterday, apparently fewer people want to spend $1,000 on a telephone every 6 months. And steel price increases caused a warning from Caterpillar which is obviously a bit more of a macro event.

So the "trade war" thing is still in play and very much appearing to create market volatility - so we are at high news risk again.



Profile shows us how fast the move down was. Very little traded between here and 2660.



We can see the run down was pretty much from the open and went on all day. As usual after these days, we go in without a bias but are very wary of a snap back OR A continuation down. In other words - if we see high participation in either direction we go with it as there's a good chance of follow through.

Obviously eyes on Dow and Nasdaq for confirmation of any momentum trade.

Plan
- Looking for a reaction to yesterdays move down - which ever way it goes
- Looking to scale into a trade
- play away from the range only if there's a high volume swing taking us out

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2616-> 2688.50
Value - 2651.50 -> 2688.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2616 -> 2683.75
Value - 2616.50 -> 2665
Globex - 2625.75 -> 2639.75

Settlement 2635.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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26th April




Not being a very technical guy, I'm not sure what this pattern is called... is it a 'wedgie'???

Either way - it's not what we want to see, a market that's coiling up. Not that it hurts us too much going into today - just a heads up that volatility may drop if the range continues to narrow.

So fingers crossed for a Tweet from Trump. Or a Treet.



Profile isn't adding much but we need to get above 2653 areas - so eyes on that on any moves up - we might fail.



Not much from overnight either.

Plan
- No bias
- looking for an early trade in case volatility drops
- need to see volume above 53 for longs and a really anything from 53 down for a short

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2688.50
Value - 2631.75 -> 2688.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2644.25
Value - 2621.50-> 2636
Globex - 2639.50 -> 2654.75

Settlement 2644.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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27th April



Still looks like a narrowing range to me but overall volatility is so high. I still have no bias at all here. Would be tempted to be long but nope. Going in neutral



Yesterday we were looking for longs above 53 and we came back over it a few times with all the chop we had after the first 30-4 minutes.



Not the best action yesterday - some grinding up action. Then a few hours sideways across a 10 point range, then a pop. Great if you'd been long early on. Decent for bites out of the swings but hard to stay with a trade IMO.

Overnight, fairly narrow again and heavy volume above from earlier in the week. 66-80 might be choppy because of this.

Plan
- No bias
- range potential 66-80, above 80 I'd be happier to be long that 66-80.
- Will try to get an early trade
- Obviously if we get a volatility break - which is possible any day, any time at the moment - will try to grab something from it.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2688.50
Value - 26315.50 -> 2687.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2639.50 2645.50 -> 2675.50
Value - 2650.75 -> 2668.25
Globex - 2665.25-> 2677.50

Settlement 2674.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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30th April



Still in an ugly location. Narrowing range. Shorter term momentum is upside but I'm neutral bias here.



We are already at the top of the upper distribution from last week, so if that's coming into play we should not get much higher than where we are now - around 2680. If we do turn down, first area to watch is around 2655.



Friday was a complete chop fest but then it was the end of the week. It's an interesting couple of days in front of us. There's no US holiday but there is a Holiday in many countries on May 1st. As it's falling on a Tuesday, it's likely a lot of people in other countries are taking the Monday off too.

So today I put as a quarter holiday and tomorrow half. Overnight trading might be slow but does not necessarily indicate that the day session will be. It just might be that the overnight trade is a lot less revelant today and tomorrow.

Plan
- No bias
- Careful with opening trades as overnight volume is suspect
- Looking to jump on board short term momentum moves, not expecting any specific direction

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2688.50
Value - 2638.25-> 2687.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2657.75 -> 2676.25 / 2677.50
Value - 2665.25 -> 2672.25
Globex - 2670 -> 2680.75

Settlement – 2671.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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1st May



Market is still in a narrowing range - but still with 40 point days.... Unusual but that's what we have to play with.

Having any sort of bias on these days is tough. But if not sure, you are better off without a bias at all.



Eyes on the lower distribution below at 30 but really - I'm not expecting this to be observing technical levels.



Big march down yesterday but in the grand scheme of things doesn't mean much and we could just have a big march up today.

Plan
- No bias
- looking for volatility to gives us moves we can scale in on.

Not going to do the levels today as I think they are less useful with all this volatility.

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2nd May



Range is narrowing. Really directionless. Action was pretty ugly yesterday and volume on the low side. Hopefully we'll get something more lively as there's no holiday today.

Obviously, this coiling up type of action will end up breaking at some point and the result is usually a decent move out of the range. So eyes out for that.



Profile is telling us that there's potential to range 2640 -> 2657 but common sense says we just see more volume in the middle, not because we spent time there but because the volatile days overlapped.

So to me, that invalidates the area.



As per yesterday, there's no direction and so I'd rather go into the day with no bias and no levels. The difference today is we will have more volume and so a chance that we break the range and see an extended move.

We don't want to bank on that though, so we'll be on the lookout to capitalize on fact the range is decent even within this directionless area.

Plan
- look for an early trade - avoid the chop
- join volatility moves, note - the market is busy at odd times at the moment 9:30-10:30 can be dull but then a break and excitement at 11
- watch for a break of the larger range (below 30, above 75)

Not going to do the levels today as I think they are less useful with this lack of direction.

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3rd May



More of this unusual directionless, volatile market. We are still coiling into this range, so eyes on a break today and if we can really follow through when it does.



Yesterday was another good example of the intraday volatility at the moment. How we can have a choppy start, then break at any point. Yesterday was quite a late break, in fact it reminds me a bit of trading overnight. Looks good in retrospect but actually involves long periods sitting on your behind doing nothing.

No levels today again

Plan
- Look for an early trade as we may chop off the open
- Take any obvious range trades but not aggressively - good to be selective
- Try to be alert when it breaks

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8th May



We are still in the range - big days, small days. No consistency in terms of direction or volatility.

Mr T has promised an announcement on Iran today. It's scheduled for 2pm. Saying that, you never know if he'll tweet his decision before hand or start dropping hints.

So news risk high today!



We are sitting above a distribution from last week just above 2657.50. eyes on that but not much else.



Eyes also below the overnight low. Not much recent trade from here down to 2635, so if we do start to fall, we could end there quickly. Similarly, above 2680 we haven't traded much, so a break up may also attract participation.

Plan
- Look for an early trade at the open
- look for acceleration below the overnight low
- look for acceleration to join above 2680
- I don't see much on in between those price points but if it becomes very volatile, then the volatility could provide opportunity anywhere
- Eyes on the news on Iran - especially if you are trading oil!!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2591.25 -> 2682.25
Value - 2616.50 -> 2654.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2661.25 / 2662.50 -> 2681.50
Value - 2671 -> 2679
Globex - 2658.50 -> 2672.25

Settlement 2670

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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9th May



Well, the Iran news kept yesterday interesting. It was CNN dropping the first "leak" on the news that shook the market and then Mr T soon came in to correct - and all of course before 2pm...


Quoting 
Mr T has promised an announcement on Iran today. It's scheduled for 2pm. Saying that, you never know if he'll tweet his decision before hand or start dropping hints.

So today we have high news risk again. Also - watch 2682.50 as we haven't broken that level for a while.



Big fat range, says the profile - but we are at the top of it. If we move back down into it - expect chop.



A nice pop up overnight so far.

Plan
- High news risk
- Longs above 82.50, careful as we approach 2720
- Expecting chop if we move down below 2670
- News may well invalidate any pre-market analysis

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2591.25 -> 2684.50
Value - 2616.50 -> 2654.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2652 -> 2674.25
Value - 2660.25 -> 2668.25
Globex - 2666.50 -> 2684.50

Settlement 2670.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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10th May



We broke out from that level that had held us the last week or so and there's another one above. If we can get through 2718.25, I'm hoping we can be free of this range and put in a decent move to 2820. Hopefully not in 1 day.



Not much here of use in my opinion.



A really slow start yesterday on Crude and the S&P. Another of those days where the open was lackluster and the action came later in the day. Bit of a pain that.

Eyes on the news this AM - maybe unemployment numbers/CPI can give us a boost.

Plan
- Look for early trade in case volatility comes in late
- Bias long looking for a test of 2718.25
- After that will play any reaction up or down from 2718.25
- No plan if there's no test as we are still in an area we chopped around a lot

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25> 2702.75
Value - 2661-> 2769

Daily Numbers
Range - 2666.50 / 2672 -> 2700
Value - 2678.50 -> 2700
Globex - 2692.75-> 2702.75

Settlement 2696

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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11th May



We got to the 2718 level yesterday and we've had a bit of a pause here, I'm still bullish with a view to a move to 2820. So we just need to shake off this 2718 level first.



Not much here that's not on the dailies - but obviously not much trade between 2717 and 2703 - so careful if 17 breaks.



Trading mostly within yesterdays value range overnight. So first order is breaking that one way or the other.

Plan
- Long bias
- Looking for a break out of yesterdays value - medium term target 2820
- below 2717, looking at a potential run down to 2703, so eyes on that for a short
- Looking for an early trade around this overnight volume as we've been in a tight area so potential for stop run is good

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2652.25> 2727
Value - pretty far below!

Daily Numbers
Range - 2692.75 / 2703-> 2725.25
Value - 2713.50-> 2723.50
Globex - 2716-> 2727

Settlement 2718.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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14th May



Still heading up, still targeting 2800-2820.



Really not much for us here other than that upper distribution that bottoms out around 2617.



Most trading today has been above Fridays range, so eyes on that too.

Note - some changes at the CME regarding TACO "Trade at Cash Open" trades. More here - https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2018/04/SER-8124R.pdf

Plan
- Long bias, target 2800-2820
- Will revert to short bias below 2717
- looking for plays off Fridays high/value high if we do pull back - but ready to play long with no pullback

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2732.50
Value - 2656 -> 2701

Daily Numbers
Range - 2716.25 / 2716.75 -> 2732.50
Value - 2720.25 -> 2727.75
Globex - 2727.25 -> 2741

Settlement – 2729.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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DionysusToast View Post
14th May

...
Note - some changes at the CME regarding TACO "Trade at Cash Open" trades. More here - https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2018/04/SER-8124R.pdf

I have no idea what this means. What impacts should we expect from this change? Any idea?

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I have no idea what this means. What impacts should we expect from this change? Any idea?

No idea - have to just wait & see I think.

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15th May



Interesting - we have just about poked through the 2718.50 level and back to test it. It's holding so far. That gives us a reference point as we know lots of people will be looking at the level. So if it holds and we move up, we should expect decent participation.



Not much from the weekly profiles yet.



Yesterday we had, a pivot around 2732 with half the days trade above and half below. Eyes on that level today as we've stayed below it.

Plan
- eyes on 2732 and 2718 - looking for tests of either to bring in participation
- not that bothered between the two prices
- also looking at the normal day trader levels
- will still look for an early trade

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2732.50
Value - 2656 -> 2701

Daily Numbers
Range - 2724.25/ 2741.25
Value - 2726.25 -> 2736.25
Globex - 2720.50 -> 2731.25

Settlement 2724.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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16th May



Back into the chop zone, hopefully we'll turn up around or before we get to 2680. If we carry on down it's back into the chop and fairly directionless trade.

So for today and perhaps the next few days, biased downside and waiting to see if this is a pullback. 2680 might be a bit deep, so for today, we'll look at yesterdays low.

Of course, we might turn up in the middle of nowhere, which is fine - but a turn on a level people will be watching is going to attract more participation. So moves up from a level should be traded more aggressively

.

Not much to see here still. Just showing us the same thing we see on the daily profiles.



Which is chop 2700- 2716 - but just 1 day and 1 nights worth of chop.

Plan
- look for an early trade as chance of chop is high
- Not so interested in trading within yesterdays range, so 2700 and 2715 (overnight high) are the first prices of interest and will be looking to fade them if the volume is low/indices not moving together
- looking for longs if we hold yesterdays low or get to 2680 and move up.
- longs also above 2715
- shorts below 2700

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2741.25
Value - 2700.75 -> 2729.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2717 / 2731.25
Value - 2703.75 -> 2711.25
Globex - 2704.50 -> 2714.75

Settlement 2709

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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17th May



Turning into a range week. I'm back to neutral in the short term. I still see us hitting 2820 in the medium term.



Weekly profile doesn't help much.



Looking at this, we can see we've held yesterdays value area overnight, so the day trader levels appear to be in play. So watching yesterdays high/low.

Plan
- look for an early trade as chance of chop is high
- look for trades off the day trader levels below
- other than that, very much a wait & see day - in terms of whether we can escape this small range we are in

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2741.25
Value - 2704.25 -> 2728.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2704.50 / 2711 -> 2728
Value - 2716 -> 2727
Globex - 2716 -> 2725.25

Settlement – 2723

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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21st May



Well - we ended up in a tight range last week. Volume was low, not sure if this is indicative of heading into summertime low volatility but first order of the day is whether we can get out of this choppy area.



A 40 point range is a lot lower than we've seen off late. Last weeks VP is really one big distribution we do have an LVN at 32, so eyes on that as potential top of range going forward.



A gap up on the Sunday trade but now back into the range.

Plan
- Presume range is in effect. Fades 2704 and 2732
- look for an early trade as it may be choppy
- look for intraday ranges to form as it's likely the days range won't reach 04.
- On an upside break - be cautious until we can break the weeks high.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2741.25
Value - 2709-> 2730

Daily Numbers
Range - 2708.75 -> 2719.75 / 2727
Value - 2712.50 -> 2717
Globex - 2724.25 -> 2736.25

Settlement 2713

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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22nd May



Well - if you've been around this prep any time, you'll know my feelings about weeks that start out this way... We are still in the range. At the top of the range. which means we are either filling in the top or about to break out.



Looks like filling in, so if we roll down from here, it's likely to be choppy. Still it should traverse to 2700, it's just a matter of how you get in and not get shaken out.



First order of the day is to shake out of the Sunday/Monday/overnight range. Look out for headfakes on extensions either side. To the upside (above 2740), we have a much better chance of a run than downside back into the range.

Plan
- take an early trade as chop is likely
- look for both daily and weekly range for fades & headfakes on extensions
- positioning short for a run to 2700 if we break daily lows - although a tricky trade to get into
- longs on decent volume above 2740

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2741.25
Value - 2709-> 2730

Daily Numbers
Range - 2724.25 / 2725.25 -> 2739.25
Value - 2729.75 -> 2735.75
Globex - 2730.50 -> 2739
Settlement 2733

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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23rd May



Still in the range.



As you can see we've now hit the bottom of where the bulk of trading was last week. We did initially pop up from there.



A really good run down overnight. A run down into an area we've been ranging for months.

As usual - a big move overnight means futures and stocks are out of line (as stocks have not been trading). So treat any snap-back with suspicion as it could just be re-alignment. We will of course be looking for a move up after this push down as it's also putting us at the bottom of our range.

Plan
- NO open trade today
- Play longs on any push up off the open - but wary of a sudden reversal
- Longs target is 2740 - not necessarily in 1 day though.
- Expecting chop on any moves down BUT remember that we are consistently getting days where we start slow and break later. Stay awake.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2705.50 -> 2741.75
Value - 2737 > 2738.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2721.50 -> 2741.75
Value - 2733-> 2740
Globex - 2705.50 -> 2727.25
Settlement 2726

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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24th May



Still in the range. Presuming it's holding for now.



We see a little more volume in the upper half of this weeks range - I don't think it's worth reading too much into that. We are now right in the middle of value.



Overnight, yesterdays VAH has held and so has yesterdays high. This could be a tricky day where traders get stopped out trying to guess what's going on in all this chop. I would presume range high will be hit but that's not far from where we are now, so a long continuation of yesterdays high is an OK trade but bigger picture is it's still a choppy area so there's a good chance of being shaken out.

Plan
- Look for open trade as it may be choppy
- Small long possible above ONH or off yestedrays VAH to 2740
- Other than that - look for trades off the top of range or shorts on failure to reach top of range
- None of which is particularly easy
- Obviously as it's a range week - always got eyes open for a break

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2704.50 -> 2741.75
Value - 2721 > 2738.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2704.50 / 2708.50 -> 2732.75
Value - 2710.50 -> 2721
Globex - 2720.25 -> 2733.25
Settlement 2730.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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31st May - sigh... another year older...



Still in that range. It's getting very old for such a tight range and quite interestingly we've seen a couple of days of higher volume and volatility within the range. Not sure if that means it's getting ready to break or not...



I wouldn't read too much into this as the days have been so elongated but we have spent more time at the top of the range.



We'd be carrying on the theme for the week if we dropped and headed to 2680. I think we must be getting close to having this range break.

Plan
- Look for a continuation of past 2 days behavior with a breakdown
- Be wary of heafakes on any move up
- We should get a nice pop when the range breaks properly - so I'm more interested in that than fading the extremes at this point

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2675 -> 2731.75
Value - 2697.75 -> 2731.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 27685.75 / 2701.75 -> 2729.25
Value - 2713 -> 2729
Globex - 2718 -> 2728.25

Settlement 2724.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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DionysusToast View Post
31st May - sigh... another year older...

It beats the alternative, enjoy your day.

Thanks for your premarket prep.

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4th June



Still in the range and volume is down. We are at the top of the range but we've hit the top quite a few times. I'm all for fading ranges but not after so many hits. So key here is to let it play out and then jump in BUT be aware of manipulation at the extremes. Be ready to bail if you take the fade but upside volume comes in.



Weekly range/profile/value don't add much. We know where the range is already!



Obviously we have to be on the lookout for the range breaking and wary of a headfake. Fridays value low held overnight - so watching the day trader levels for a hold and some upside.

Plan
- Look for a continuation of past 2 days behavior with a breakdown
- Be wary of heafakes on any move up
- Be wary of any fake reversal downside too

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2675 -> 2737
Value - 2700.75 -> 2731.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2705 / 2720.50 -> 2737
Value - 2727.50 -> 2735
Globex - 2729 -> 2743.50

Settlement 2733.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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5th June



A rather disappointing day yesterday, we tested the top of the range overnight and then just probed through again. So it looks like either the range isn't broker OR there's so few positions still open within the range that there's no stops to cause a reaction.

Less than 900k contracts traded. Bottom line is there's just not a lot going on technically Or in the news. Or rather, news doesn't seem to be bugging people out at the moment.

Rollover is later this week and the volume isn't in September either.



Still not much to see here.



As you can see - very narrow yesterday. For today, a change of plan. We may be heading into the summer time chop, so here's my suggestion for index traders that want to stick with it

Plan
- If we return to regular volatility, then flip back to regular ES trading
- If not - look to trade within the range on NQ, YM, RTY Futures

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2675 -> 2737
Value - 2700.75 -> 2731.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2729 / 2739.25 -> 2749.25
Value - 2742.75 -> 2747.25
Globex - 2742 -> 2749

Settlement 2745.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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6th June



Volume a bit better yesterday but still a relatively slow day. Start of the day was slow until we got through the overnight high and rolled.



Not much to say here, looks like a range week from a profile perspective, so on the lookout for us dropping back down.



The day trader levels were in play yesterday, so eyes on them today. We do still have the possibility of acceleration on any move up if there are stops firing from the range below. For now it does look like we don't have many positions on from there as they are neither bailing out, nor defending those positions. Dull, basically.

Not much news today either, so I think it's most likely a dull day heading into the roll.... don't blame me...

Plan
- Early trade on in case of a slow start
- Rollover tomorrow, low expectation day
- Eyes on 2740 area for a fade long if we do move down
- Watching the levels below

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2729 -> 2758
Value - 2741 -> 2752

Daily Numbers
Range - 2739 -> 2752.50
Value - 2743.75 -> 2750.75
Globex - 2750 -> 2758

Settlement 2751.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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12th June

Rolls done, so back to it. Note new levels below.



We are heading to the high of the range we've been in since February - so keeping a long bias to 2810 and then looking for signs that the range will hold.



Last weeks profile is very even, so it doesn't tell us much.



A sideways Monday, with decent volume, we really need to escape this to the upside today. We've traded around yesterdays range overnight and we need to see some interest trading outside of that range.

Plan
- Early trade on in case of a slow start
- Longs above yesterdays high and also looking for longs of yesterdays day trader levels - basically looking for decent participation away from a short term level to the upside.
- Will play short side by ear - but not seeing so much participation if we head down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2733 -> 2783.50
Value - 2744.50 -> 2774.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2774 / 2783 -> 2794.25
Value - 2786.75 -> 2793.75
Globex - 2782.50 -> 2792

Settlement – 2786.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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13 June



A pretty lackluster day yesterday and FOMC today - I still have an eye on the 2810 area but basically not expecting much from the morning session.



Not much to see here - typical rangebound profile so far.



Nothing new overnight - a small push through the highs - again - probably just pre FOMC slowdown, so we have to re-assess tomorrow.

Plan
- Look for open trade as it might be all that's on for the ES
- Trade swings on the NQ if the ES is slow
- Re-assess after FOMC

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2774.25 -> 2796
Value - 2783.50 -> 2793

Daily Numbers
Range - 2782.75 -> 2794
Value - 2786.75 -> 2791.75
Globex - 2788 -> 2796

Settlement 2788.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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14th June



A bit of a move down off the FOMC, volume normal. Not sure we should read too much into this - still expecting a test of 2810, but this could be the top.



Profile is indicating a range , so looking for longs pretty much from where we are now.



The usual wild swings off FOMC.

So plan for today is to see if we get any volatility now FOMC is out of the way and if the market can carry on up to the top of the range.

Plan
- Early trade is on as it might be dull later on
- Eyes on the day trader levels (below) and 2810
- A day for letting the developing action dictate more than the current prices

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2772.25 -> 2796
Value - 2782.75 -> 2794.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2778.75 -> 2796
Value - 2786.50 -> 2795.50
Globex - 2772.25 -> 2783.50

Settlement 2779

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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15th June

Friday feeling!



This week has been a bit of a wash. No movement and it's Friday, so not much expected...



One big, fat distribution - close to the lows now but certainly fade-able at either extreme. We just could be in the middle again come the daytime.



A spike down overnight but still in range - so it's a non-move.

Plan
- early trade on
- watch out for a break of the weeks range - it's unlikely but possible
- play from one end of the range to the other, which right now (3:30am EST) - means long. Obviously that will change if we run the range over night.
- will be considering doing something else by 11am EST if nothings happened

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2772.25 -> 2796
Value - 2783 -> 2794

Daily Numbers

Range - 2772.25 / 2781 -> 2794
Value - 2785 -> 2790
Globex - 2773.50 -> 2789.25

Settlement 2777.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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18th June



More sideways action - hard to say if we are going to extend the range we just broke out of - if we can push down to the top of that range - around 2745, we should have a better idea of what's going on by how it reacts there.



A push down overnight but within last weeks range, so not really significant. Expecting chop to the upside if we don't test 2745 first.



Overnight we've traversed Fridays range, so watching the extremes as we open.

Plan
- Early trade on as we may chop later on
- Looking for a test of 2745 long term.
- watching day trader levels and will expect a little acceleration on a break down
- expecting moves up to be choppy as it's back into last weeks range, will focus on NQ if we move up.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2765.50 -> 2796
Value - 2780.50 -> 2794

Daily Numbers
Range - 2765.50 -> 2787.50 / 2789.25
Value - 2770.50 -> 2781
Globex - 2768 -> 2786.75

Settlement 2784.50

Today only - 2745

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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19th June



Trade war is in the news and we've now tested the high of the old range.



Not much to see here other than the move down.



Big drop. Basically a news driven move that's taken us to a technical level. Pretty much anything can happen today.

Off the open we may well see an initial "rebalance" up - as the stocks and futures line themselves up. Be wary if you jump on that move as it may be short lived.

So today - I think it's just a matter of jumping on any move, scaling in to stay on the safe side.

Plan
- No early trade, good chance of volatility
- Try to scale into any volatile moves - don't worry too much about technical levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2765.50 -> 2796
Value - 2780.50 -> 2794

Daily Numbers
Range - 2761.25 -> 2779 / 2786.75
Value - 2771.25 -> 2778.25
Globex - 2735.75-> 2780.25

Settlement 2779.75

Today only - 2745

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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20th June



We shrugged off the 'trade war' drop - so we've now tested the high of the old range - so TECHNICALLY - we should move up from here.

Yesterday was a tough trade though. In hindsight it looks fine - but it was tough on the right edge.

Still, I feel any repositioning is probably done now and am hoping for a day trader day again today. Trouble is that might mean low June volatility.



Profile doesn't tell us much this week.



Today I'd keep an eye on the day trader levels. Of course an ear on the news as there could be more trade war stuff looming.

Plan
- Early trade is on
- Bias long
- watching the day trader levels for a reaction, especially yesterdays high
- Happy to trade either way if volume comes in off a bounce

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2735.75-> 2786.75
Value - 2755.50 -> 2778.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2737.75/ 2746.25 -> 2769 / 2780.25
Value - 2755-> 2766.50
Globex - 2757.25 -> 2776.25

Settlement 2766.25

Today only - 2745

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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DionysusToast View Post
Hi All

I decided to move my pre-market prep over here.

I tend to push this out on a forum, the Topstep indices room and a Skype group I'm a member of.

I'd prefer this thread to be a place for anyone to post pre-market prep for any market.

Not much to say other than you'll pick it up as you go along..

DT

Great work Bro !!

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21st



Still no real movement - I'm still looking for completion of the range upwards but it's quite directionless at the moment.

News risk is still there.



We seem to be getting pulled back to the value area - so eyes on weekly value today.



Pretty lousy day yesterday, we settled down very quickly after that news drop earlier this week.

Plan
- Low expectation
- If market ranges, revert to scalping more volatile indices
- Otherwise eyes on day trader levels, 2045 and 2810

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2735.75-> 2786.75
Value - 2761.50 -> 2783.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2757.25 / 2767 -> 2769 / 2778.25
Value - 2770.25 -> 2778.25
Globex - 2762 -> 2785

Settlement 2772

Today only - 2745, 2810

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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25th June



Back to the old range high - so once again - looking to see if buyers jump in at these levels. Volume is still quite low, not much interest in the markets right now. Just the blips on the news.



Very even distribution last week - so eyes on the value area and expect chop once we get into it.



We can see not much action on Friday and overnight we've moved down then moved sideways 42-50.

Plan
- Early trade on as it might be a narrow day
- Look for a lift off the open as we have pushed down overnight
- Will play breaks in either direction if we see a move from a developing level
- If it chops - revert to short term NQ bounce trades

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2735.75-> 2786.75
Value - 2756.25 -> 2776.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2749.25 / 2756.25 -> 2768.50
Value - 2761 -> 2766.50
Globex - 2741.25 -> 2758

Settlement – 2759.50

Today only - 2745

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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26th

I think the comment "blips from the news" from yesterdays prep... is a good candidate for understatement of the week....




We reached the low of the old range - 2698.25 before bouncing back up. Interesting but doesn't help us much today.



Profile doesn't usually help with an elongated move. So lets come back to this later in the week.



As we go into today, we have to consider what's been happening after these "trade war" price moves. The last one we had was a big move down but the next day - totally sideways, low volume and not much opportunity.

Plan
- Observe, observe, observer - try to figure out the volatility profile of the day first and foremost
- Scale in if it looks like the market is running again - I do prefer upside but I'm going in with no bias
- If there is no interest - look to scalp NQ ranges

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2735.75-> 2786.75
Value - 2756.25 -> 2776.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2700.50 / 2746.50 -> 2758
Value - n/a today - yesterday too elongated for this to be meaningful
Globex - 2716.75 -> 2728.40

Settlement – 2722.25

Today only - 2745,2698.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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27th June



No real movement yesterday, just back in the old range.



Eyes on 35 - as we may rotate around this lower distribution.



Overnight traders having all the fun again. A fairly tight day yesterday. We held yesterdays Value high, so watching the day trader lebvels.

Plan
- no bias
- look for an early trade as it might be slow.
- watch the day trader levels but really it's wait & see to figure out what this market wants to do - at the moment it's not going anywhere.
- a breakdown below 2700 would be nice

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50-> 2758
Value - 2708.50 -> 2732.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2714.75 / 2717.25 -> 2735.25
Value - 2724 -> 2732.50
Globex - 2705.50 -> 2732.50

Settlement 2722.25

Today only - 2728.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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28th June



Volatile and unpredictable - sort of makes doing prep a bit pointless but it's still always good to take a step back and have a plan of attack.

Despite the volatility yesterday, we didn't actually go anywhere. There's lots of news hitting the wires, so it's just a matter of prime goal to assess the volatility.



Profile wasn't relevant yesterday - we pretty much ran the weeks range, so if it was ignored by that move, it's proabably not going to be that significant today.



Yesterdays low has held, which is the low of the range marked out on the daily charts above. We couldn't get the break below 2700 that we were looking for yesterday. I do expect a reaction there. For now, the low has held so any moves up are worth a shot. But it's really a crap shoot with the macro-economic stuff hitting the wires.

Plan
- Look for open trade
- after that, wait 15 mins to see what the volatility looks like
- ear on the news
- try to scale in to any volatile moves. Start small on all trades as new can hit any time.
- Look out for volatility hitting later in the day - dont be fooled by a slow start

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50-> 2758
Value - not worth watching now

Daily Numbers
Range - 2701 -> 2748
Value - elongated day - not meaningful
Globex - 2702.75 -> 2717.25

Settlement 2705

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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29th June




Eye's on 2745 today - the top of the old range (white box). If that holds, we should see shorts come in to take us back to 2700. If we can break then it's eye's on 2800.

News risk is still high, market is volatile but long term directionless.



We are just above the weeks distribution right now - so we do risk falling back from here.



All trade overnight is above yesterdays value.

Plan
- Bias up - but with the caveat we might not make it far past 45. So 45 is the line in the sand today and will play moves away from it in either direction.
- ears on the news.
- be wary of initial choppy action again
- also be wary of any initial move down off the open which might just be rebalancing after the overnight move up

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2706.50 -> 2731.75

Daily Numbers

Range - 2693.25 / 2693.50 -> 2726.25
Value - 2697.75 -> 2713.75
Globex - 2716.75 -> 2737.25

Settlement 2719.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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2nd July



Sill not moving anywhere. Volume is decent. News risk is still high.



Eyes on 2705 & 2732 - that's where we traded most last week.



A big push down overnight - be wary of any push up off the open as it may just be rebalancing. Overall market is directionless - we seem to have settled back into the old range.

Plan
- opening trade on today
- looking for a move away from a level - but with no bias at all
- will try to scale in as we do still have a healthy range and that also plays into the overall directionlesness....(If that's even a word!)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2705.50 -> 2733

Daily Numbers
Range - 2716.75 / 2720.25-> 2745.50
Value - 2733.75-> 2742.25
Globex - 2716.75 -> 2737.25

Settlement 2721.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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3rd July



Going nowhere at the moment. Eyes on 45.25 as we go to the top of the box.



We traded around last weeks value area, which is interesting - we extended out the bottom and now the top - so if we fall back down past 30, look for chop back down to 06.



Overnight trade has stuck just above yesterdays value. And the overnight range was obviously significant yesterday, so eyes on the daytradr levels being in play today - because, there's not a lot else to trade around!

Plan
- Early trade on
- look for trades away from 45.25 once we hit it
- Also looking for shorts below 30
- Other than that, not interested


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2705.50 -> 2733

Daily Numbers
Range - 2698.50 / 2700.50 -> 2728.50
Value - 2704 -> 2717
Globex - 2720.50 -> 2739.25

Settlement 2727.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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DionysusToast View Post
3rd July



Going nowhere at the moment. Eyes on 45.25 as we go to the top of the box.



We traded around last weeks value area, which is interesting - we extended out the bottom and now the top - so if we fall back down past 30, look for chop back down to 06.



Overnight trade has stuck just above yesterdays value. And the overnight range was obviously significant yesterday, so eyes on the daytradr levels being in play today - because, there's not a lot else to trade around!

Plan
- Early trade on
- look for trades away from 45.25 once we hit it
- Also looking for shorts below 30
- Other than that, not interested


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2705.50 -> 2733

Daily Numbers
Range - 2698.50 / 2700.50 -> 2728.50
Value - 2704 -> 2717
Globex - 2720.50 -> 2739.25

Settlement 2727.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

Thanks much always

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9th July



Market heading up - so looking to see what will happen when we hit 2800/top of this range....

Generally speaking, I'm always a little suspicious of moves up in holiday weeks but Fridays volume wasn't too low.. so continuation is favored...



Next resistance down is 2740 - so if we do move down, there's not much trade from here to there, so any drop could be quite fast.



Also eyes on 2756.75 too - the late pullback.

Plan
- Bias Long
- watching 56.75 and 40.00 if the market pulls back
- Also watching the day trader levels
- Wait for a reaction from a known or developing level, then jump in if we see volume in that direction.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2698.50-> 2766.25
Value - 2713.50 -> 2739

Daily Numbers

Range - 2631.25 / 2734.50 -> 2766.25
Value - 2750.50 -> 2766
Globex - 2761.75 -> 2774.75

Settlement 2763

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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DionysusToast View Post
3rd July



Going nowhere at the moment. Eyes on 45.25 as we go to the top of the box.



We traded around last weeks value area, which is interesting - we extended out the bottom and now the top - so if we fall back down past 30, look for chop back down to 06.



Overnight trade has stuck just above yesterdays value. And the overnight range was obviously significant yesterday, so eyes on the daytradr levels being in play today - because, there's not a lot else to trade around!

Plan
- Early trade on
- look for trades away from 45.25 once we hit it
- Also looking for shorts below 30
- Other than that, not interested


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2705.50 -> 2733

Daily Numbers
Range - 2698.50 / 2700.50 -> 2728.50
Value - 2704 -> 2717
Globex - 2720.50 -> 2739.25

Settlement 2727.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887


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DionysusToast View Post
9th July



Market heading up - so looking to see what will happen when we hit 2800/top of this range....

Generally speaking, I'm always a little suspicious of moves up in holiday weeks but Fridays volume wasn't too low.. so continuation is favored...



Next resistance down is 2740 - so if we do move down, there's not much trade from here to there, so any drop could be quite fast.



Also eyes on 2756.75 too - the late pullback.

Plan
- Bias Long
- watching 56.75 and 40.00 if the market pulls back
- Also watching the day trader levels
- Wait for a reaction from a known or developing level, then jump in if we see volume in that direction.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2698.50-> 2766.25
Value - 2713.50 -> 2739

Daily Numbers

Range - 2631.25 / 2734.50 -> 2766.25
Value - 2750.50 -> 2766
Globex - 2761.75 -> 2774.75

Settlement 2763

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887


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10th July



So we've hit the top of the range and fallen back. Doesn't mean we aren't going to break through yet but there really wasn't much volume yesterday to support this if we pullback.



Really nothing below us to support this move. So we could have a swift move back to 40 at which point I'd see us slowing down.



We'll keep an eye on the daily levels. Volume was low yesterday. We have upside momentum but are are a decision point. Gauging the end of the pullback is problematic as there's really nothing to lean on.

Plan
- Join downside momentum if it looks like the range is holding
- Eyes on the daytradr levels for the market holding but I see them as low confidence
- Longs above 2800 but eyes out for a headfake (absorption on offer side after a break)


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2698.50-> 2766.25
Value - 2713.50 -> 2739

Daily Numbers
Range - 2761.75 / 2773 -> 2787.25
Value - 2780.75 -> 2786.75
Globex - 2786.25 -> 2797.25

Settlement 2787.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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11th July



No shock here, we got to the high of the range and we moved down from it. As mentioned in yesterdays prep, there's not a lot below us to clue us in to where this move might end.



We did mention the day trader levels being in play and we've dipped into last weeks range and moved up from there. We also held overnight high range overnight. Same level has held in todays overnight session.



But mostly - the move down and subsequent bounce up after testing last weeks high was all overnight.

Volume was low yesterday and so was the range. So eyes on the range/volatility from the open.

Plan
- look for early trade on the chance volume/volatility is low
- eyes on the volume/volatility - if it's low - look for scalps off YM/NQ
- watch for downside continuation to confirm range is holding, shorts below overnight high if so.
- be wary of a rebalancing up at the open (a rebalance) - and don't allow any early longs to go offside as it may be short lived
- watch for headfakes through the high if we do pop up. Obviously if we do break the range topside, that is a buying opportunity

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2797.75
Value - 2768.75 -> 2791.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2786.25 / 2788.50 -> 2797.25
Value - 2791.75 -> 2795.75
Globex - 2765.75 -> 2797.75

Settlement 2796.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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DionysusToast View Post
11th July



No shock here, we got to the high of the range and we moved down from it. As mentioned in yesterdays prep, there's not a lot below us to clue us in to where this move might end.



We did mention the day trader levels being in play and we've dipped into last weeks range and moved up from there. We also held overnight high range overnight. Same level has held in todays overnight session.



But mostly - the move down and subsequent bounce up after testing last weeks high was all overnight.

Volume was low yesterday and so was the range. So eyes on the range/volatility from the open.

Plan
- look for early trade on the chance volume/volatility is low
- eyes on the volume/volatility - if it's low - look for scalps off YM/NQ
- watch for downside continuation to confirm range is holding, shorts below overnight high if so.
- be wary of a rebalancing up at the open (a rebalance) - and don't allow any early longs to go offside as it may be short lived
- watch for headfakes through the high if we do pop up. Obviously if we do break the range topside, that is a buying opportunity

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2797.75
Value - 2768.75 -> 2791.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2786.25 / 2788.50 -> 2797.25
Value - 2791.75 -> 2795.75
Globex - 2765.75 -> 2797.75

Settlement 2796.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887


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Thanks much great !

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12th July



Still no real decision about whether the top of this range will hold or not. So in a bit of a holding pattern till volume comes in and takes us one way or the other.



Watch out at 2785 - the step in the volume profile - we may see increased volume if we test that again.



Indecisive yesterday add overnight. Volume was a little better yesterday with over 1.3M traded.

Plan
- early trade on in case it ranges
- look for fades at yesterdays range if we start slow
- Wary of longs above yesterdays high till we break the range
- watch for headfakes through the high if we do pop up. Obviously if we do break the range topside, that is a buying opportunity
- Shorts if we see volume come in below yesterdays range
- Not interested in trades within yesterdays day session range (2772.25 -> 2787.75)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2797.75
Value - 2770.50 -> 2789

Daily Numbers
Range - 2766 / 2772.25 -> 2787.75 / 2797.75
Value - 2775.50 -> 2782
Globex - 2773.50 -> 2787.75

Settlement 2774

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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13th July

yes... Friday the 13th....



We broke the top of the range and are now sitting around the top of the range (well just below it). So we are waiting to see if the old range will hold int he day session.

If so - we should have decent volume joining if we move up. 2810 is a minor hurdle.



There's plenty of trade from earlier in the week below us, so I don't think this will drop like a stone to the downside.



Not much to say about this - we've pushed up through the top, retraced and now we need to see which way it'll resolve.

Plan
- Early trade on - I don't feel it's going to be a wild open!
- Look for volume above 2797 and go with it
- Downside looks like it'll be more of a challenge as it appears choppy. Obviously we have to join moves down but can't say I'm terribly excited at the prospect.
- watching moves away from overnight levels, yesterdays range/value - as there's not much to the play off except 2810


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2807.25
Value - 2771 -> 2792.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2773.50 / 2782.75 -> 2801
Value - 2791.50 -> 2782
Globex - 2773.50 -> 2799.75

Settlement 2798.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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16th July



out of the old range and now halted at the March high. No convincing break, so once again at an inflection point, looking to see if people jump on when they consider it 'resolved'.



Last week was a fairly evenly distributed week - from my perspective - that makes the value area irrelevant.



A slow start overnight - we can see how the volatility dried up the higher we got.

Plan
- early trade on as volatility is low
- looking for volume to come in off this inflection point (around 2810)
- will look to the day trader levels but not expecting a strong reaction off them

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2807.25
Value - not using it this week

Daily Numbers

Range - 2793.25 -> 2806.25 / 2807.25
Value - 2800.50 -> 2806
Globex - 2803.75 -> 2809

Settlement 2803.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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17th July



Still not making any progress. Volume dropping. Still waiting for people to pile in.



Nothing of interest from the developing volume profile this week.



Yesterdays Value high held overnight. Eyes on the day trader levels today as there's no much else. We have basically tested the high of a medium term range and an old high. There has been no decisive reaction to either.

Plan
- Low expectation day, early trades on
- Looking to scalp higher volatility index futures - DOW/YM if volatility remains low
- Will jump back to ES if we see volume come in but no specific levels at the moment

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2807.25
Value - not using it this week

Daily Numbers

Range - 2795 -> 2804.75 / 2809
Value - 2797 -> 2801.50
Globex - 2790.50 -> 2801.50

Settlement 2796.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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19th July



We are struggling for volume and volatility, so it definitely looks like we are settling into holiday mode. We need some sort of event to wake the market up.

There is still the possibility that we pick up the pace away from this area.



Profile is very even, so other than fading the extremes - nothing on there.



Day trader levels are being observed but there's not much activity other than that.

Plan
- look for open trade.
- presuming low volatility look to take short term scalps on NQ/YM

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2789.75 -> 2818.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2806.75 -> 2818.25
Value - 2811.25-> 2818.25
Globex - 2806.25 -> 2818

Settlement 2816

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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23th July



Still stick around these 2 levels with no commitment either way.



That's a VERY evenly distributed profile - so into this week, we have to consider fades at the extremes. Forget the value area, I'd look at 2794 and 2816 for fades.



Also looking for fades around Fridays/overnight levels. As we have been coiled in this tight range for a while now, we could pop out - so be on the lookout for it

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Look for fades primarily - last weeks extremes + day trader levels
- Keep an eye on volatility and be prepared to switch gears if we do break out.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2789.75 -> 2818.25
Value - watch 2794 & 2816 instead

Daily Numbers
Range - 2793 / 2800.75 -> 2810.25
Value - 2803.25-> 2807.25
Globex - 2792.50 -> 2806

Settlement 2800.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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24th July



Still no move, volume weak but we are at the highest point since March. I don't see sellers jumping on if we turn down from here but I do see buyers joining a convincing break. So usual stuff at inflection points - looking for participation away as well as manipulative headfakes etc.



We've basically traversed last weeks range with the Sunday/Monday session. So looking for signs of a fade back down.



This looks Bullish. A nice pop overnight and yesterdays high held so a proper gap up. So be wary of any initial moves down off the open.

Plan
- Early trade on
- Wary of any initial move down
- Looking for headfakes up to short (absorption on offer 2-4 points past the high)
- Otherwise - waiting to see which way it breaks and follow it

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2789.75 -> 2818.25
Value - watch 2794 & 2816 instead

Daily Numbers
Range - 2792.50 / 2706 -> 2809.50
Value - 2800.75 -> 2809.50
Globex - 2810.25 -> 2819.50

Settlement 2812

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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25th July



Decent volume yesterday and a break above the old high. We fell back and tested it and if that doesn't make people come and buy now, then I'm taking my ball and going home till September...

Obviously, we could just fall back down but if we do pop up, then I expect some volatility and participation.



2810 is our line in the sand an inflection point on the profile too.



Eyes on yesterdays low/value low too into the open

Plan
- watch the day levels & 2810 - looking for a test and move up. Join if volume comes in
- Less attractive is joining a continuation up
- To the downside, will consider below 2810
- not married to the upside, just ready to take advantage of it if it happens

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2789.75 -> 2831.25
Value - too elongated so far

Daily Numbers
Range - 2810.25 / 2812 -> 2831.25
Value - 2817.25 -> 2829.25
Globex - 2814 -> 2821.75

Settlement 2821

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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30th July



Back to our level - so obviously first order of the day is top figure out if this is a retest or failure. Either way we have decent chance of momentum.



eye's on 2820 - we might struggle to get past it if we go upside.



Not much news to drive us - although eyes on Euro Consumer confidence at 5am EST.



Friday was a big drop but still within the weeks range more or less. SO today really not much more on the table but this level 2810

Plan
- Watch for momentum away from 2810. Careful at 2820
- Scale in if it's very volatile
- Really need to see how the day develops today.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2792.50-> 2849.50
Value - not used this week

Daily Numbers

Range - 2808.75 -> 2843.25 / 2847
Value - not used today
Globex - 2806.50 -> 2817.75

Settlement 2817.50

Today only 2820

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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31st July



Level still not resolved and we are very close to the prior range high. Media is talking the market down a storm because of FB dropping. We are in danger of more chop if you look to the left and see what we did here last time.



We were watching 2820 as possible halt to any push up, we got to 21.75 before failing. So eyes on that area on any pushes up.



Plenty of news today - so eyes on 8:30 & 8:55, see if that gives us a jolt.



Not a great way to start the week as this is how range weeks start. First order of the day is to break yesterdays range

Plan
- look for fades off yesterdays levels if we have low correlations with YM/NQ
- look for early trade too as it may be a slow one
- expecting low volatility unless we can get above 2810 or below 97.50. - longs above 2810 and shorts below 97.50


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2792.50-> 2849.50
Value - not used this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2798.25 -> 2821.75
Value - 2801.50 -> 2813
Globex - 2802.75 -> 2809.50

Settlement 2805.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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1st August



Still hanging around this level.



And the weeks profile so far looks tight and rangey.



FOMC today, so typically a slow start with a big pop when the FED do exactly what we expected them to.



We got above 2820 but no sellers there - so market is still undecided.

Plan
- Early trade on
- Low expectation in the AM - but watching the daytradr levels
- Ready to jump on moves up prior to FOMC if we get participation
- Expecting chop to the downside prior to FOMC

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2798.25 -> 2827.75
Value - 2806.50 -> 2818.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2702.75 / 2808.50 -> 2825
Value - 2813.25 -> 2822.75
Globex - 2810.75 -> 2827.25

Settlement 2817

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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2nd August



A nice move down overnight - still really within the chop area but any further down and we get back into the old range.

I guess the pundits are saying this is due to the Fed decision to not do anything that they didn't already decide to do. Strong economy and target rates 1.75-2%. Still pretty low.



Keep an eye on 04.50 if we move up - above that we get into that large distribution from earlier in the week and the prospect for chop.



Factory orders at 10.... and natty gas for energy traders @ 10:30....



As with any overnight move - be on the lookout for a rebalance on the open. Which means a move up in this case. So be aware that if it's just a rebalance, it'll be short lived.

Plan
- look for early trade/bounce up off the open
- then stay back till 9:45 - see if the market has picked a direction to follow
- look to fade ranges if we end up in a low correlation chop

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2791 -> 2827.75
Value - 2805.25 -> 2818.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2805.50 -> 2825.75 / 2827.75
Value - 2807.75 -> 2819
Globex - 2791 -> 2815.25

Settlement 2810.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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7th August




Markets moving up, my target is 2887 and I see a decent probability of it rolling over again. Not that I'll trade there.



We are well above last weeks value.



A little news before the open, then nothing till 11:30 - eyes on 8:55 EST.



And a steady march up....

Plan
- Market moving up - bias is long
- Look to play off any retraces back to value high/low or overnight high/low
- Obviously,

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2791 -> 2840.50
Value - 2802.75 -> 2822.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2835 / 2835.50 -> 2853.50
Value - 2842.25 -> 2853.25
Globex - 2848.25 -> 2858.50

Settlement – 2850

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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Not trading this week - holidays & all!

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5th September



Volume quite healthy yesterday, so I'm presuming Holiday is OVER! From a technical perspective we are at a make or break point - we've broken out and returned to the new high. So either way, we have a good chance of decent participation whether it holds or fails.



Not using the weekly profiles this week. No point as it's holiday data.



Well this looks very structured. Holds of the prior days range both sides overnight - so an eye on the day trader levels into the open.



Plenty of news, so an eye on the markets @ 8:30 when Balance of Trade comes out.

Plan
- Ease back into trading
- Early trade absolutely on today
- Basically jump on any move away from the 2887, in either direction.
- Re-assess if volatility isn't as expected

Daily Numbers
Range - 2885.50 -> 2901
Value - 2890.75 -> 2898.25
Globex - 2885 -> 2900.50

Settlement 2898.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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6th September



Still at the inflection point of the old high. No decision either way - but good volatility and decent volume. Directionless but with opportunity.

Obviously - if we stick in this spot, then we'll degrade into choppy action so just bear that in mind as the day progresses and eyes on DOW/NQ to see if they diverge. If so - be wary of chop in the ES.



The old high was pretty much in the middle of yesterdays range. Doesn't mean it's irrelevant as everyone knows it's "new highs" to the upside. I'm neutral on which way it'll break, but a downside break is over old ground and will have more differing opinions.

We've sat within yesterdays range overnight - so no clues there other than watch the daytradr levels into the open.



That's a lot of stuff going on today.

Plan
- Open trade on
- Looking for volatility in either direction, especially close to the open
- Expecting later trades to be a little tricky to hold on to (shake out)
- Expecting a larger move when people decide the old high did/didn't hold - will watch intraday for that
- Eyes on the news as that might negate some or all of the above

Daily Numbers
Range - 2877.50 -> 2895 / 2900.50
Value - 2883.50 -> 2892
Globex - 2882 -> 2892.75

Settlement 2888.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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7th September



We do appear to be heading down & so am expecting good participation if the market feels that more down is on the cards.



Yesterday we did push up from the open but we couldn't get past the overnight high/yesterdays close. So when we moved down, we got good participation to the downside.

Looking for something similar today..

For upside, not sure what people will be looking for to jump on a move up, other than us being above the old high 2887.



Plenty of news into the open which could change things.

Plan
- Open trade on
- no Clear bias
- expecting good participation on moves down
- Will participate to the upside

Daily Numbers
Range - 2868 -> 2893
Value - 2872 -> 2884
Globex - 2871 -> 2881.50

Settlement 2875.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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10th September



We are now back at the inflection point - so good outlook for participation either way - I do feel that moves down will gather more interest though.



Nothing really jumps out from last weeks weekly profile - but will watch the value area, which has so far held overnight, so a trip to weekly value high could be on the cards.



We are still in the range we marked out on Thursday. The biggest risk to volatility is that it stays in this range.



Not much news but heads up at 11am EST

Plan
- wary of trades between 2865-> 2885 (Fridays range) as it'll be 3rd day in that area
- open trade on in case volatility does fail us
- fade 65 on low volume push down
- jump on board any move with good volume as that would indicate a play away from the inflection point at 87

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2865 -> 2912.50
Value - 2873.75 -> 2898.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2865 -> 2885
Value - 2868.50 -> 2878
Globex - 2873.25 -> 2886.25

Settlement 2885.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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12th September



Still flirting around the old high. Still waiting for an escape.



Fairly even distribution with an LVN ad the old high - which is just a remnant of us trading around it. Level is obviously in play but not so much as an "absolute hold" or anything.



Yesterday PM we moved above the old high and stayed above. Overnight has done the same thing. So looks like smart move is to play moves away from 2887 either way.



News may change thing - beige book @ 2pm.

Plan
- slight long bias
- early trade on
- early in the day look for moves either way away from 2887.
- later, as we swing back, consider moves back towards after a 10k shift in delta

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2867.25 -> 2895.25
Value - 2871.75 -> 2887.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2867.25 -> 2893
Value - 2879.50 -> 2893
Globex - 2886.25 -> 2895.25

Settlement 2889.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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Rollover - no ES trading till Monday!

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17th September




Fresh new contract, lovely. New levels below, I removed some of the old ones but will add back if we move down.

As you all know, a move up to December is common. We are close to the old high which is 2922.50 on the December contract, so eyes on that as we could well be marking out a range 68.75->22.50 - so eyes on how we react towards the top.

We should probably also expect that it might get choppy in the middle of this area - so eyes on the correlations.



After the roll, I tend not to pay much attentions to the levels. So for today, no weekly or daily levels.



Slow news day too...

Plan
- early trade on
- join moves up but look for fades around 22.50
- eyes out for headfakes if we move above 22.50 - usual deal - absorption just past the high
- if we move down, consider the range confirmed and more cautious shorts (choppy) with a target of 68.75 (but not all in one day.

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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18th September



Decent volume yesterday. We moved down intraday and down some more overnight but we've taken most of that back.

Still - here's where a rule kicks in that I cannot override - I am biased short with a view to hitting 2870 area before turning back.

Saying that - most days swing up and down so it's not like I'm only going to trade one way.



Yesterday we said "We should probably also expect that it might get choppy in the middle of this area - so eyes on the correlations."

And it was quite a chopfest - until a slow breakdown from lunchtime. This is a pattern we've seen a lot this year. Early chop, late break. Hard to trade. We did trade down to the old high (2892.75) in the day session, so let's keep an eye on that today.



Not much news today

Plan
- tentative short bias - target range low at 2870
- early trade on as we are in the middle of a developing range
- eyes on the day trader levels
- not really looking for any specific move because of the range to the left. Moves away from 92.75 might bring in traders but it might be tricky to hold onto a position in this area, so expecting shake outs and waiting for something decent to show up intraday

Daily Numbers
Range - 2892.25 -> 2911.25
Value - 2901.50 -> 2909
Globex - 2883.25 -> 2904

Settlement - 2896

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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19th September



Still in the range - but a very nice move yesterday. Choppy at the start and breaking later....

As mentioned yesterday

" This is a pattern we've seen a lot this year. Early chop, late break. Hard to trade. We did trade down to the old high (2892.75) in the day session, so let's keep an eye on that today."

This has been happening a lot this year. Overall, we've failed to hit our range low, so now to see what happens to the upside.



So far today - that's 'not a lot'. I'd keep an eye on the late pullback at 2910 and possibly thee breakout point around 2903. Other than that, I don't see much.



Eyes on Draghi speech at 10am - but not much on and obviously not much volatility/follow through overnight.

Plan
- Early trade on - as we may chop being in the range
- eyes on the range high at 2922. will play moves away in either direction.
- if it doesn't hit the extreme, then expect chop - but jump on volatility if it does occur
- Basically, don't expect a big range - just cause we had one yesterday!


Daily Numbers
Range - 2883.50 -> 2917.75
Value - 2891.75 -> 2913.75
Globex - 2909 -> 2915.25

Settlement - 2906.50

Today only - 2903, 2910

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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20th September



Well - this is what happens when you are in a range and you don't touch the sides. We need a test of the extreme Or some news to get us directional again.



Not much to analyze there. It'll break at some point but no guarantee that will happen today.



This is a snapshot - it's about 4:30 am EST - this is LOW participation and low volatility.



On the bright side - plenty of news, so we may see something to snap us out.

Plan
- Low expectation day - but be alert
- Look for an early trade
- Expect chop but be alert for the break - and a possible 8:30am EST trade

Daily Numbers
Range - 2905.75 / 2910 -> 2918.75
Value - 2912.50 -> 2916
Globex - 2913.25 -> 2918.75

Settlement - 2910

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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