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DTs Pre Market Prep

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10th September



We are now back at the inflection point - so good outlook for participation either way - I do feel that moves down will gather more interest though.



Nothing really jumps out from last weeks weekly profile - but will watch the value area, which has so far held overnight, so a trip to weekly value high could be on the cards.



We are still in the range we marked out on Thursday. The biggest risk to volatility is that it stays in this range.



Not much news but heads up at 11am EST

Plan
- wary of trades between 2865-> 2885 (Fridays range) as it'll be 3rd day in that area
- open trade on in case volatility does fail us
- fade 65 on low volume push down
- jump on board any move with good volume as that would indicate a play away from the inflection point at 87

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2865 -> 2912.50
Value - 2873.75 -> 2898.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2865 -> 2885
Value - 2868.50 -> 2878
Globex - 2873.25 -> 2886.25

Settlement 2885.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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12th September



Still flirting around the old high. Still waiting for an escape.



Fairly even distribution with an LVN ad the old high - which is just a remnant of us trading around it. Level is obviously in play but not so much as an "absolute hold" or anything.



Yesterday PM we moved above the old high and stayed above. Overnight has done the same thing. So looks like smart move is to play moves away from 2887 either way.



News may change thing - beige book @ 2pm.

Plan
- slight long bias
- early trade on
- early in the day look for moves either way away from 2887.
- later, as we swing back, consider moves back towards after a 10k shift in delta

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2867.25 -> 2895.25
Value - 2871.75 -> 2887.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2867.25 -> 2893
Value - 2879.50 -> 2893
Globex - 2886.25 -> 2895.25

Settlement 2889.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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Rollover - no ES trading till Monday!

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17th September




Fresh new contract, lovely. New levels below, I removed some of the old ones but will add back if we move down.

As you all know, a move up to December is common. We are close to the old high which is 2922.50 on the December contract, so eyes on that as we could well be marking out a range 68.75->22.50 - so eyes on how we react towards the top.

We should probably also expect that it might get choppy in the middle of this area - so eyes on the correlations.



After the roll, I tend not to pay much attentions to the levels. So for today, no weekly or daily levels.



Slow news day too...

Plan
- early trade on
- join moves up but look for fades around 22.50
- eyes out for headfakes if we move above 22.50 - usual deal - absorption just past the high
- if we move down, consider the range confirmed and more cautious shorts (choppy) with a target of 68.75 (but not all in one day.

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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18th September



Decent volume yesterday. We moved down intraday and down some more overnight but we've taken most of that back.

Still - here's where a rule kicks in that I cannot override - I am biased short with a view to hitting 2870 area before turning back.

Saying that - most days swing up and down so it's not like I'm only going to trade one way.



Yesterday we said "We should probably also expect that it might get choppy in the middle of this area - so eyes on the correlations."

And it was quite a chopfest - until a slow breakdown from lunchtime. This is a pattern we've seen a lot this year. Early chop, late break. Hard to trade. We did trade down to the old high (2892.75) in the day session, so let's keep an eye on that today.



Not much news today

Plan
- tentative short bias - target range low at 2870
- early trade on as we are in the middle of a developing range
- eyes on the day trader levels
- not really looking for any specific move because of the range to the left. Moves away from 92.75 might bring in traders but it might be tricky to hold onto a position in this area, so expecting shake outs and waiting for something decent to show up intraday

Daily Numbers
Range - 2892.25 -> 2911.25
Value - 2901.50 -> 2909
Globex - 2883.25 -> 2904

Settlement - 2896

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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19th September



Still in the range - but a very nice move yesterday. Choppy at the start and breaking later....

As mentioned yesterday

" This is a pattern we've seen a lot this year. Early chop, late break. Hard to trade. We did trade down to the old high (2892.75) in the day session, so let's keep an eye on that today."

This has been happening a lot this year. Overall, we've failed to hit our range low, so now to see what happens to the upside.



So far today - that's 'not a lot'. I'd keep an eye on the late pullback at 2910 and possibly thee breakout point around 2903. Other than that, I don't see much.



Eyes on Draghi speech at 10am - but not much on and obviously not much volatility/follow through overnight.

Plan
- Early trade on - as we may chop being in the range
- eyes on the range high at 2922. will play moves away in either direction.
- if it doesn't hit the extreme, then expect chop - but jump on volatility if it does occur
- Basically, don't expect a big range - just cause we had one yesterday!


Daily Numbers
Range - 2883.50 -> 2917.75
Value - 2891.75 -> 2913.75
Globex - 2909 -> 2915.25

Settlement - 2906.50

Today only - 2903, 2910

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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20th September



Well - this is what happens when you are in a range and you don't touch the sides. We need a test of the extreme Or some news to get us directional again.



Not much to analyze there. It'll break at some point but no guarantee that will happen today.



This is a snapshot - it's about 4:30 am EST - this is LOW participation and low volatility.



On the bright side - plenty of news, so we may see something to snap us out.

Plan
- Low expectation day - but be alert
- Look for an early trade
- Expect chop but be alert for the break - and a possible 8:30am EST trade

Daily Numbers
Range - 2905.75 / 2910 -> 2918.75
Value - 2912.50 -> 2916
Globex - 2913.25 -> 2918.75

Settlement - 2910

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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21st September



A break out. So 2 things to look for - continuation up or a move down to some reference point and then a move up. Both of these are likely to bring in good participation.



There's not really much to fall back to for support - the old high of course - but that's 22 points down. So I'm watching overnight low/yesterdays high/value high.

Should be interesting anyway.

Plan
- Looking for longs/a bit of excitement/upside participation-
- Will play shorts off intraday levels
- Not much to prep as there's not much prior action at these levels, so it's all about what would make people interested

Daily Numbers
Range - 2913.25 / 2926.25 -> 2940.75
Value - 2931.50 -> 2940
Globex - 2938 -> 2945.50

Settlement - 2939.50

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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24th September



Up to new highs Friday and overnight today, we've fallen back to the old high, so it's the resistance becomes support scenario. With this in mind, you'd expect good participation if we do move up. To the downside, not so clear - it's back to an area that saw a bit of chop AND some big days. So cautious on moves down.



Looking at the weekly chart, not much trade below down to 2917. So look out there if we do move down.



A small gap down overnight, settlement was 33.75, so eyes on that.



Not much news.

We have 2 things going on today. We are at an inflection point but we also have a really low range overnight.

Plan
- no bias
- will be aggressive on longs above 2922.75
- shorts below 22.75 but more cautious.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2883.50 -> 2947
Value - 2885.50 -> 2918.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2932.50 -> 2946.50
Value - 2936.50 -> 2943
Globex - 2923.25 -> 2930.25

Settlement - 2933.75
Today only - 2922.75

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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25th September



Back at the old high, the inflection point. Yesterday, we couldn't get away from it. Volume was low but still above 1 million.

Looking left, we are trading around Thursdays range, so we may have a range week in play.



This is quite pitiful. Obviously first order of the day is to break the tone set by Mondays tiny range.



We've broken upside overnight, but there's still 4 hours left before the NY open. I think it's just a matter of seeing if we can follow through with some decent volume at the open and if not, it could be another tedious day like yesterday.

Plan
- Aggressively look for an opening trade, as we may stall early on.
- Continuation up at the open has a good chance of bringing in players and will follow that
- Not interested in any trades within Mondays range but will play off the extremes
- will be happy short below Mondays low

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2883.50 -> 2947
Value - 2885.50 -> 2918.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2917.75 -> 2929 / 2930.25
Value - 2921 -> 2926
Globex - 2923.50 -> 2933.25

Settlement - 2925.50

Long Term Levels - 2797.50, 2868.75, 2892.75, 2922.50

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