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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #1271 (permalink)
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30th July



Back to our level - so obviously first order of the day is top figure out if this is a retest or failure. Either way we have decent chance of momentum.



eye's on 2820 - we might struggle to get past it if we go upside.



Not much news to drive us - although eyes on Euro Consumer confidence at 5am EST.



Friday was a big drop but still within the weeks range more or less. SO today really not much more on the table but this level 2810

Plan
- Watch for momentum away from 2810. Careful at 2820
- Scale in if it's very volatile
- Really need to see how the day develops today.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2792.50-> 2849.50
Value - not used this week

Daily Numbers

Range - 2808.75 -> 2843.25 / 2847
Value - not used today
Globex - 2806.50 -> 2817.75

Settlement 2817.50

Today only 2820

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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  #1272 (permalink)
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31st July



Level still not resolved and we are very close to the prior range high. Media is talking the market down a storm because of FB dropping. We are in danger of more chop if you look to the left and see what we did here last time.



We were watching 2820 as possible halt to any push up, we got to 21.75 before failing. So eyes on that area on any pushes up.



Plenty of news today - so eyes on 8:30 & 8:55, see if that gives us a jolt.



Not a great way to start the week as this is how range weeks start. First order of the day is to break yesterdays range

Plan
- look for fades off yesterdays levels if we have low correlations with YM/NQ
- look for early trade too as it may be a slow one
- expecting low volatility unless we can get above 2810 or below 97.50. - longs above 2810 and shorts below 97.50


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2792.50-> 2849.50
Value - not used this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2798.25 -> 2821.75
Value - 2801.50 -> 2813
Globex - 2802.75 -> 2809.50

Settlement 2805.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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  #1273 (permalink)
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1st August



Still hanging around this level.



And the weeks profile so far looks tight and rangey.



FOMC today, so typically a slow start with a big pop when the FED do exactly what we expected them to.



We got above 2820 but no sellers there - so market is still undecided.

Plan
- Early trade on
- Low expectation in the AM - but watching the daytradr levels
- Ready to jump on moves up prior to FOMC if we get participation
- Expecting chop to the downside prior to FOMC

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2798.25 -> 2827.75
Value - 2806.50 -> 2818.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2702.75 / 2808.50 -> 2825
Value - 2813.25 -> 2822.75
Globex - 2810.75 -> 2827.25

Settlement 2817

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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  #1274 (permalink)
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2nd August



A nice move down overnight - still really within the chop area but any further down and we get back into the old range.

I guess the pundits are saying this is due to the Fed decision to not do anything that they didn't already decide to do. Strong economy and target rates 1.75-2%. Still pretty low.



Keep an eye on 04.50 if we move up - above that we get into that large distribution from earlier in the week and the prospect for chop.



Factory orders at 10.... and natty gas for energy traders @ 10:30....



As with any overnight move - be on the lookout for a rebalance on the open. Which means a move up in this case. So be aware that if it's just a rebalance, it'll be short lived.

Plan
- look for early trade/bounce up off the open
- then stay back till 9:45 - see if the market has picked a direction to follow
- look to fade ranges if we end up in a low correlation chop

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2791 -> 2827.75
Value - 2805.25 -> 2818.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2805.50 -> 2825.75 / 2827.75
Value - 2807.75 -> 2819
Globex - 2791 -> 2815.25

Settlement 2810.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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  #1275 (permalink)
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7th August




Markets moving up, my target is 2887 and I see a decent probability of it rolling over again. Not that I'll trade there.



We are well above last weeks value.



A little news before the open, then nothing till 11:30 - eyes on 8:55 EST.



And a steady march up....

Plan
- Market moving up - bias is long
- Look to play off any retraces back to value high/low or overnight high/low
- Obviously,

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2791 -> 2840.50
Value - 2802.75 -> 2822.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2835 / 2835.50 -> 2853.50
Value - 2842.25 -> 2853.25
Globex - 2848.25 -> 2858.50

Settlement – 2850

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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Last edited by Jigsaw Trading; August 7th, 2018 at 07:36 AM.
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  #1277 (permalink)
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Not trading this week - holidays & all!

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  #1278 (permalink)
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5th September



Volume quite healthy yesterday, so I'm presuming Holiday is OVER! From a technical perspective we are at a make or break point - we've broken out and returned to the new high. So either way, we have a good chance of decent participation whether it holds or fails.



Not using the weekly profiles this week. No point as it's holiday data.



Well this looks very structured. Holds of the prior days range both sides overnight - so an eye on the day trader levels into the open.



Plenty of news, so an eye on the markets @ 8:30 when Balance of Trade comes out.

Plan
- Ease back into trading
- Early trade absolutely on today
- Basically jump on any move away from the 2887, in either direction.
- Re-assess if volatility isn't as expected

Daily Numbers
Range - 2885.50 -> 2901
Value - 2890.75 -> 2898.25
Globex - 2885 -> 2900.50

Settlement 2898.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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  #1279 (permalink)
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6th September



Still at the inflection point of the old high. No decision either way - but good volatility and decent volume. Directionless but with opportunity.

Obviously - if we stick in this spot, then we'll degrade into choppy action so just bear that in mind as the day progresses and eyes on DOW/NQ to see if they diverge. If so - be wary of chop in the ES.



The old high was pretty much in the middle of yesterdays range. Doesn't mean it's irrelevant as everyone knows it's "new highs" to the upside. I'm neutral on which way it'll break, but a downside break is over old ground and will have more differing opinions.

We've sat within yesterdays range overnight - so no clues there other than watch the daytradr levels into the open.



That's a lot of stuff going on today.

Plan
- Open trade on
- Looking for volatility in either direction, especially close to the open
- Expecting later trades to be a little tricky to hold on to (shake out)
- Expecting a larger move when people decide the old high did/didn't hold - will watch intraday for that
- Eyes on the news as that might negate some or all of the above

Daily Numbers
Range - 2877.50 -> 2895 / 2900.50
Value - 2883.50 -> 2892
Globex - 2882 -> 2892.75

Settlement 2888.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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  #1280 (permalink)
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7th September



We do appear to be heading down & so am expecting good participation if the market feels that more down is on the cards.



Yesterday we did push up from the open but we couldn't get past the overnight high/yesterdays close. So when we moved down, we got good participation to the downside.

Looking for something similar today..

For upside, not sure what people will be looking for to jump on a move up, other than us being above the old high 2887.



Plenty of news into the open which could change things.

Plan
- Open trade on
- no Clear bias
- expecting good participation on moves down
- Will participate to the upside

Daily Numbers
Range - 2868 -> 2893
Value - 2872 -> 2884
Globex - 2871 -> 2881.50

Settlement 2875.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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