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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #1261 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
11th July



No shock here, we got to the high of the range and we moved down from it. As mentioned in yesterdays prep, there's not a lot below us to clue us in to where this move might end.



We did mention the day trader levels being in play and we've dipped into last weeks range and moved up from there. We also held overnight high range overnight. Same level has held in todays overnight session.



But mostly - the move down and subsequent bounce up after testing last weeks high was all overnight.

Volume was low yesterday and so was the range. So eyes on the range/volatility from the open.

Plan
- look for early trade on the chance volume/volatility is low
- eyes on the volume/volatility - if it's low - look for scalps off YM/NQ
- watch for downside continuation to confirm range is holding, shorts below overnight high if so.
- be wary of a rebalancing up at the open (a rebalance) - and don't allow any early longs to go offside as it may be short lived
- watch for headfakes through the high if we do pop up. Obviously if we do break the range topside, that is a buying opportunity

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2797.75
Value - 2768.75 -> 2791.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2786.25 / 2788.50 -> 2797.25
Value - 2791.75 -> 2795.75
Globex - 2765.75 -> 2797.75

Settlement 2796.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887


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  #1262 (permalink)
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Thanks much great !

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  #1263 (permalink)
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12th July



Still no real decision about whether the top of this range will hold or not. So in a bit of a holding pattern till volume comes in and takes us one way or the other.



Watch out at 2785 - the step in the volume profile - we may see increased volume if we test that again.



Indecisive yesterday add overnight. Volume was a little better yesterday with over 1.3M traded.

Plan
- early trade on in case it ranges
- look for fades at yesterdays range if we start slow
- Wary of longs above yesterdays high till we break the range
- watch for headfakes through the high if we do pop up. Obviously if we do break the range topside, that is a buying opportunity
- Shorts if we see volume come in below yesterdays range
- Not interested in trades within yesterdays day session range (2772.25 -> 2787.75)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2797.75
Value - 2770.50 -> 2789

Daily Numbers
Range - 2766 / 2772.25 -> 2787.75 / 2797.75
Value - 2775.50 -> 2782
Globex - 2773.50 -> 2787.75

Settlement 2774

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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13th July

yes... Friday the 13th....



We broke the top of the range and are now sitting around the top of the range (well just below it). So we are waiting to see if the old range will hold int he day session.

If so - we should have decent volume joining if we move up. 2810 is a minor hurdle.



There's plenty of trade from earlier in the week below us, so I don't think this will drop like a stone to the downside.



Not much to say about this - we've pushed up through the top, retraced and now we need to see which way it'll resolve.

Plan
- Early trade on - I don't feel it's going to be a wild open!
- Look for volume above 2797 and go with it
- Downside looks like it'll be more of a challenge as it appears choppy. Obviously we have to join moves down but can't say I'm terribly excited at the prospect.
- watching moves away from overnight levels, yesterdays range/value - as there's not much to the play off except 2810


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2807.25
Value - 2771 -> 2792.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2773.50 / 2782.75 -> 2801
Value - 2791.50 -> 2782
Globex - 2773.50 -> 2799.75

Settlement 2798.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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16th July



out of the old range and now halted at the March high. No convincing break, so once again at an inflection point, looking to see if people jump on when they consider it 'resolved'.



Last week was a fairly evenly distributed week - from my perspective - that makes the value area irrelevant.



A slow start overnight - we can see how the volatility dried up the higher we got.

Plan
- early trade on as volatility is low
- looking for volume to come in off this inflection point (around 2810)
- will look to the day trader levels but not expecting a strong reaction off them

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2807.25
Value - not using it this week

Daily Numbers

Range - 2793.25 -> 2806.25 / 2807.25
Value - 2800.50 -> 2806
Globex - 2803.75 -> 2809

Settlement 2803.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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17th July



Still not making any progress. Volume dropping. Still waiting for people to pile in.



Nothing of interest from the developing volume profile this week.



Yesterdays Value high held overnight. Eyes on the day trader levels today as there's no much else. We have basically tested the high of a medium term range and an old high. There has been no decisive reaction to either.

Plan
- Low expectation day, early trades on
- Looking to scalp higher volatility index futures - DOW/YM if volatility remains low
- Will jump back to ES if we see volume come in but no specific levels at the moment

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2807.25
Value - not using it this week

Daily Numbers

Range - 2795 -> 2804.75 / 2809
Value - 2797 -> 2801.50
Globex - 2790.50 -> 2801.50

Settlement 2796.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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19th July



We are struggling for volume and volatility, so it definitely looks like we are settling into holiday mode. We need some sort of event to wake the market up.

There is still the possibility that we pick up the pace away from this area.



Profile is very even, so other than fading the extremes - nothing on there.



Day trader levels are being observed but there's not much activity other than that.

Plan
- look for open trade.
- presuming low volatility look to take short term scalps on NQ/YM

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2789.75 -> 2818.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2806.75 -> 2818.25
Value - 2811.25-> 2818.25
Globex - 2806.25 -> 2818

Settlement 2816

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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23th July



Still stick around these 2 levels with no commitment either way.



That's a VERY evenly distributed profile - so into this week, we have to consider fades at the extremes. Forget the value area, I'd look at 2794 and 2816 for fades.



Also looking for fades around Fridays/overnight levels. As we have been coiled in this tight range for a while now, we could pop out - so be on the lookout for it

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Look for fades primarily - last weeks extremes + day trader levels
- Keep an eye on volatility and be prepared to switch gears if we do break out.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2789.75 -> 2818.25
Value - watch 2794 & 2816 instead

Daily Numbers
Range - 2793 / 2800.75 -> 2810.25
Value - 2803.25-> 2807.25
Globex - 2792.50 -> 2806

Settlement 2800.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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24th July



Still no move, volume weak but we are at the highest point since March. I don't see sellers jumping on if we turn down from here but I do see buyers joining a convincing break. So usual stuff at inflection points - looking for participation away as well as manipulative headfakes etc.



We've basically traversed last weeks range with the Sunday/Monday session. So looking for signs of a fade back down.



This looks Bullish. A nice pop overnight and yesterdays high held so a proper gap up. So be wary of any initial moves down off the open.

Plan
- Early trade on
- Wary of any initial move down
- Looking for headfakes up to short (absorption on offer 2-4 points past the high)
- Otherwise - waiting to see which way it breaks and follow it

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2789.75 -> 2818.25
Value - watch 2794 & 2816 instead

Daily Numbers
Range - 2792.50 / 2706 -> 2809.50
Value - 2800.75 -> 2809.50
Globex - 2810.25 -> 2819.50

Settlement 2812

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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25th July



Decent volume yesterday and a break above the old high. We fell back and tested it and if that doesn't make people come and buy now, then I'm taking my ball and going home till September...

Obviously, we could just fall back down but if we do pop up, then I expect some volatility and participation.



2810 is our line in the sand an inflection point on the profile too.



Eyes on yesterdays low/value low too into the open

Plan
- watch the day levels & 2810 - looking for a test and move up. Join if volume comes in
- Less attractive is joining a continuation up
- To the downside, will consider below 2810
- not married to the upside, just ready to take advantage of it if it happens

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2789.75 -> 2831.25
Value - too elongated so far

Daily Numbers
Range - 2810.25 / 2812 -> 2831.25
Value - 2817.25 -> 2829.25
Globex - 2814 -> 2821.75

Settlement 2821

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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