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DTs Pre Market Prep

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22nd May



Well - if you've been around this prep any time, you'll know my feelings about weeks that start out this way... We are still in the range. At the top of the range. which means we are either filling in the top or about to break out.



Looks like filling in, so if we roll down from here, it's likely to be choppy. Still it should traverse to 2700, it's just a matter of how you get in and not get shaken out.



First order of the day is to shake out of the Sunday/Monday/overnight range. Look out for headfakes on extensions either side. To the upside (above 2740), we have a much better chance of a run than downside back into the range.

Plan
- take an early trade as chop is likely
- look for both daily and weekly range for fades & headfakes on extensions
- positioning short for a run to 2700 if we break daily lows - although a tricky trade to get into
- longs on decent volume above 2740

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2741.25
Value - 2709-> 2730

Daily Numbers
Range - 2724.25 / 2725.25 -> 2739.25
Value - 2729.75 -> 2735.75
Globex - 2730.50 -> 2739
Settlement 2733

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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23rd May



Still in the range.



As you can see we've now hit the bottom of where the bulk of trading was last week. We did initially pop up from there.



A really good run down overnight. A run down into an area we've been ranging for months.

As usual - a big move overnight means futures and stocks are out of line (as stocks have not been trading). So treat any snap-back with suspicion as it could just be re-alignment. We will of course be looking for a move up after this push down as it's also putting us at the bottom of our range.

Plan
- NO open trade today
- Play longs on any push up off the open - but wary of a sudden reversal
- Longs target is 2740 - not necessarily in 1 day though.
- Expecting chop on any moves down BUT remember that we are consistently getting days where we start slow and break later. Stay awake.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2705.50 -> 2741.75
Value - 2737 > 2738.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2721.50 -> 2741.75
Value - 2733-> 2740
Globex - 2705.50 -> 2727.25
Settlement 2726

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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24th May



Still in the range. Presuming it's holding for now.



We see a little more volume in the upper half of this weeks range - I don't think it's worth reading too much into that. We are now right in the middle of value.



Overnight, yesterdays VAH has held and so has yesterdays high. This could be a tricky day where traders get stopped out trying to guess what's going on in all this chop. I would presume range high will be hit but that's not far from where we are now, so a long continuation of yesterdays high is an OK trade but bigger picture is it's still a choppy area so there's a good chance of being shaken out.

Plan
- Look for open trade as it may be choppy
- Small long possible above ONH or off yestedrays VAH to 2740
- Other than that - look for trades off the top of range or shorts on failure to reach top of range
- None of which is particularly easy
- Obviously as it's a range week - always got eyes open for a break

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2704.50 -> 2741.75
Value - 2721 > 2738.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2704.50 / 2708.50 -> 2732.75
Value - 2710.50 -> 2721
Globex - 2720.25 -> 2733.25
Settlement 2730.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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31st May - sigh... another year older...



Still in that range. It's getting very old for such a tight range and quite interestingly we've seen a couple of days of higher volume and volatility within the range. Not sure if that means it's getting ready to break or not...



I wouldn't read too much into this as the days have been so elongated but we have spent more time at the top of the range.



We'd be carrying on the theme for the week if we dropped and headed to 2680. I think we must be getting close to having this range break.

Plan
- Look for a continuation of past 2 days behavior with a breakdown
- Be wary of heafakes on any move up
- We should get a nice pop when the range breaks properly - so I'm more interested in that than fading the extremes at this point

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2675 -> 2731.75
Value - 2697.75 -> 2731.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 27685.75 / 2701.75 -> 2729.25
Value - 2713 -> 2729
Globex - 2718 -> 2728.25

Settlement 2724.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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DionysusToast View Post
31st May - sigh... another year older...

It beats the alternative, enjoy your day.

Thanks for your premarket prep.

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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4th June



Still in the range and volume is down. We are at the top of the range but we've hit the top quite a few times. I'm all for fading ranges but not after so many hits. So key here is to let it play out and then jump in BUT be aware of manipulation at the extremes. Be ready to bail if you take the fade but upside volume comes in.



Weekly range/profile/value don't add much. We know where the range is already!



Obviously we have to be on the lookout for the range breaking and wary of a headfake. Fridays value low held overnight - so watching the day trader levels for a hold and some upside.

Plan
- Look for a continuation of past 2 days behavior with a breakdown
- Be wary of heafakes on any move up
- Be wary of any fake reversal downside too

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2675 -> 2737
Value - 2700.75 -> 2731.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2705 / 2720.50 -> 2737
Value - 2727.50 -> 2735
Globex - 2729 -> 2743.50

Settlement 2733.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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5th June



A rather disappointing day yesterday, we tested the top of the range overnight and then just probed through again. So it looks like either the range isn't broker OR there's so few positions still open within the range that there's no stops to cause a reaction.

Less than 900k contracts traded. Bottom line is there's just not a lot going on technically Or in the news. Or rather, news doesn't seem to be bugging people out at the moment.

Rollover is later this week and the volume isn't in September either.



Still not much to see here.



As you can see - very narrow yesterday. For today, a change of plan. We may be heading into the summer time chop, so here's my suggestion for index traders that want to stick with it

Plan
- If we return to regular volatility, then flip back to regular ES trading
- If not - look to trade within the range on NQ, YM, RTY Futures

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2675 -> 2737
Value - 2700.75 -> 2731.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2729 / 2739.25 -> 2749.25
Value - 2742.75 -> 2747.25
Globex - 2742 -> 2749

Settlement 2745.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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6th June



Volume a bit better yesterday but still a relatively slow day. Start of the day was slow until we got through the overnight high and rolled.



Not much to say here, looks like a range week from a profile perspective, so on the lookout for us dropping back down.



The day trader levels were in play yesterday, so eyes on them today. We do still have the possibility of acceleration on any move up if there are stops firing from the range below. For now it does look like we don't have many positions on from there as they are neither bailing out, nor defending those positions. Dull, basically.

Not much news today either, so I think it's most likely a dull day heading into the roll.... don't blame me...

Plan
- Early trade on in case of a slow start
- Rollover tomorrow, low expectation day
- Eyes on 2740 area for a fade long if we do move down
- Watching the levels below

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2729 -> 2758
Value - 2741 -> 2752

Daily Numbers
Range - 2739 -> 2752.50
Value - 2743.75 -> 2750.75
Globex - 2750 -> 2758

Settlement 2751.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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12th June

Rolls done, so back to it. Note new levels below.



We are heading to the high of the range we've been in since February - so keeping a long bias to 2810 and then looking for signs that the range will hold.



Last weeks profile is very even, so it doesn't tell us much.



A sideways Monday, with decent volume, we really need to escape this to the upside today. We've traded around yesterdays range overnight and we need to see some interest trading outside of that range.

Plan
- Early trade on in case of a slow start
- Longs above yesterdays high and also looking for longs of yesterdays day trader levels - basically looking for decent participation away from a short term level to the upside.
- Will play short side by ear - but not seeing so much participation if we head down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2733 -> 2783.50
Value - 2744.50 -> 2774.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2774 / 2783 -> 2794.25
Value - 2786.75 -> 2793.75
Globex - 2782.50 -> 2792

Settlement – 2786.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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13 June



A pretty lackluster day yesterday and FOMC today - I still have an eye on the 2810 area but basically not expecting much from the morning session.



Not much to see here - typical rangebound profile so far.



Nothing new overnight - a small push through the highs - again - probably just pre FOMC slowdown, so we have to re-assess tomorrow.

Plan
- Look for open trade as it might be all that's on for the ES
- Trade swings on the NQ if the ES is slow
- Re-assess after FOMC

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2774.25 -> 2796
Value - 2783.50 -> 2793

Daily Numbers
Range - 2782.75 -> 2794
Value - 2786.75 -> 2791.75
Globex - 2788 -> 2796

Settlement 2788.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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